UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Kayla Harrison: Force ties, get the fight to the mat, and convert 2.84 TD/15 into the control and submissions that beat Holm and Peña. Do not spend five rounds at the end of a 69-inch reach.

Amanda Nunes: Use +3" reach and 0.63 KD/15 before the clinch becomes a throw. Her 82% takedown defence is the whole upset if it holds after three years away.

Luis Gurule: Make it ugly and long. His one UFC win was a decision. His volume is real. Hasan's 4:07 average says the debutant has not had to win a third round in the UFC.

Bilal Hasan: Stay long, use the 70-inch reach, and find the chin that Osbourne already found. Do not turn it into a fifteen-minute volume fight if the knockout is there in round two, which is when Rojas ended.

Caio Borralho: Turn 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes into the control that beat de Ridder and Cannonier. Do not spend nine minutes at the end of a 79-inch reach trading 3.47 output for 6.44.

Yousri Belgaroui: Keep the 30-foot cage big. Use 6'6", the right knee, and the 1.06 knockdown rate before a body lock becomes a round.

Uros Medic: Close the ten inches once, early, the way the Neal and Salikhov fights ended. Do not spend nine minutes at the end of an 81-inch reach trying to win a kickboxing decision at a distance he does not own. Southpaw entries have to be commits, not feels.

Kevin Holland: Use the 30-foot cage. Make Medic walk into the 81-inch jab and the counters. If the pocket gets tied, the anaconda and the D'Arce are on the log. A decision is a win here — he just took one against Randy Brown.

Nazim Sadykhov: Use the southpaw output before the fight becomes a measuring contest he can lose in one punch, the way Camilo ended it. 4.69 SLpM and the Motta knockout are the case. 72% takedown defence matters only if Nascimento decides to wrestle — he did not, in his debut.

Jefferson Nascimento: Stay at the end of the 70-inch reach, make Sadykhov lead, and do not volunteer the pocket that has been stopping Sadykhov. A decision is a live win. His debut almost was one. The weight cut back to 155 is the unknown, not a proven advantage.

Adrian Yanez: Keep it at the end of the 70-inch reach in a 30-foot cage, land the combination that stopped Garbrandt and Salvador, and stuff the shot at something like the 75% he has posted. He has no submission game on the rate line. The win is strikes or a decision built on strikes.

Juan Díaz: Make it the Wellmaker fight. Five takedowns and a rear-naked choke do not require him to out-point 5.96 SLpM. The spinning elbow is on the Contender Series log. It is not the UFC win.

Stephen Thompson: Use the 75-inch reach and the 30-foot cage, land the karate side kick, and do not accept the fence cycles that decided Bonfim and Buckley. Three rounds means he does not get the fifth he used to have. He also does not need it if the fight stays upright. His submission rate is 0.0. The win is strikes or a decision.

Charles Radtke: Wrestle early, the way the Prado and Frunza fights were won, and do not stand in the pocket that Malott ended in 26 seconds. A rear-naked choke is on the log. A boring decision on top also wins.

Drew Dober: Southpaw left hand, the punch that stopped Johnson, and do not shoot. 16% takedown accuracy is not a weapon. 58% takedown defence has to be good enough that Duncan cannot live on top the way he did against McKinney. The wins are knockouts. Believe that.

Chris Duncan: Wrestle. 2.92 TD/15 is the edge the striking table does not show. The anaconda of McKinney is the finish. The Moicano loss is the warning: a better submission fighter can reverse that script in round two.

Jim Miller: Force the shot, or wait for it, and lock the guillotine he has now finished people with. He does not need to win a striking round. He needs the mistake. Hooper is the version where the wrestler is careful and the fifteen minutes go the other way. McKinney has not been that wrestler.

Terrance McKinney: Start the way the Nelson fight started. 6.83 SLpM and a switch stance against a 43-year-old who lands 2.92 is the minute that matters. If Miller catches a kick and looks for the guillotine, that is the Duncan risk. Do not hang the neck out the way Gordon did, and do not let a scramble become bottom position.

Baisangur Susurkaev: Use the 79-inch reach and the 5.74 SLpM, make Johnson cover six inches of height, and look for the choke that ended Santos and Nolan. The McConico knockout took until round three. Do not assume a first-round finish. The log does not have one on the roster.

Donte Johnson: Southpaw counter, stay at the end of his own 74 inches, and do not get stuck under a man who out-landed Santos 107-78. The Brundage split decision is the path if the knockout is not there. The Dumas guillotine is the finish if a neck appears. His defensive striking is the real edge. His size is not.

Macy Chiasson: Stay at the end of the 72-inch reach in a 30-foot cage, stuff the first layer, and turn it into the kind of fight her chart says she can win by knockout or decision. If Pérez's six takedowns happen again, the reach never enters the fight. 62% takedown defence is the number that has to show up.

Bia Mesquita: Close the seven inches, complete the shot at anything like 75%, and find the armbar or the rear-naked choke she has used in all three UFC wins. She does not need to out-point Chiasson for fifteen minutes. Mullins out-landed her 10-3 and still tapped.