UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Tactical key

Harrison wins by turning the first exchange into a clinch, a throw and top control, and no UFC opponent has kept her off yet. Nunes has always won the opening round on the feet and done her own wrestling later, so everything depends on stopping those early entries. If Nunes keeps it standing past the first few minutes, her power and five-round experience come into play.

Tactical key

Belgaroui has out-landed every opponent in every round of his UFC career, yet the wrestlers he faced still took him down and held him for stretches before he finished them late. Borralho's own wrestling has faded from his recent fights, so everything turns on whether he goes back to it early. If this stays a kickboxing match, the bigger man owns it.

Tactical key

Medic has ended almost every recent fight in the first round, and his losses have come just as fast. Holland is a long, busy range fighter who has spent much of his career being taken down and held, but Medic has shown no interest in wrestling. If Holland survives the opening minutes and keeps the fight at kicking range, the rounds start drifting his way.

Tactical key

Gurule is a slow starter who finds his rhythm late, landing far more in third rounds than in openers. Hasan does his damage early, attacking the body and finishing most of his fights before the final round, as he did in his UFC debut. The fight is a race between Hasan's early power and Gurule's habit of getting going only after he has taken damage.

Tactical key

Thompson still wins the kickboxing, but his last three opponents stopped letting him kickbox: Gabriel Bonfim and Joaquin Buckley beat him while level with or behind him on the strike count, by taking him down. Radtke's longer UFC wins were built on takedowns and long stretches of top control. Whether Wonderboy can keep this in open space decides it.

Tactical key

Dober and Duncan were both finished quickly by Manuel Torres and both beat Terrance McKinney in round one, so this looks like a fight that ends early. Dober's recent wins came from his hands on the feet; Duncan's finishes came from front-headlock chokes. The first scramble decides whose finish arrives first.

Tactical key

McKinney's UFC fights are decided early: he has never reached a third round in the Octagon, and his losses come when opponents survive the opening burst and land back or find his neck. Miller has built his late career on catching aggressive opponents in guillotines, most recently Jared Gordon in May. The burst against the veteran's patience decides it.

Tactical key

Almeida's UFC losses follow a pattern: he gets dropped in opening exchanges, as Kopylov, Alhassan and Pinas all did, or held down, as Oleksiejczuk showed over fifteen minutes. Johnson brings exactly those weapons — an early right hand and a wrestling base. Almeida's answer is range: accurate calf and body kicks, and the counter left hook that knocked out Alhassan moments after being dropped.

Tactical key

Costa can make Gordon cross distance through several different threats. Gordon needs his pressure to produce a secure clinch or top position before the exchanges become open-ended. At lightweight, the question is whether Costa's length and variety survive a heavier man leaning on him.

Tactical key

Chiasson has lost three straight decisions, and the clearest of them came against women who got hold of her: Ketlen Vieira and Ailín Pérez spent long stretches in control. Mesquita is a decorated jiu-jitsu champion who has submitted every opponent she has met in the UFC. Chiasson's size only matters if the fight stays standing and off the fence.

Tactical key

Elder needs to make Sanches defend several connected exchanges. Sanches has shown he can survive an early grappling threat and finish immediately after separation, so Elder cannot treat a broken clinch as a safe pause.