Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Jim Miller

“A-10”

39W19L

Guillotine Specialist

Terrance McKinney

“T. Wrecks”

18W9L

First-Round Chaos

A 24-second knockout clock against a 43-year-old guillotine in thirty feet

LightweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

McKinney's first-round clock against Miller's guillotine at 43. Close once early like Nelson, or give the neck like Gordon and the upset is live.

Paths that change the fight

Jim MillerForce the shot, or wait for it, and lock the guillotine he has now finished people with. He does not need to win a striking round. He needs the mistake. Hooper is the version where the wrestler is careful and the fifteen minutes go the other way. McKinney has not been that wrestler.
Terrance McKinneyStart the way the Nelson fight started. 6.83 SLpM and a switch stance against a 43-year-old who lands 2.92 is the minute that matters. If Miller catches a kick and looks for the guillotine, that is the Duncan risk. Do not hang the neck out the way Gordon did, and do not let a scramble become bottom position.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

He guillotined Gordon in May, from the bottom, after a takedown
22 of 39 wins are submissions

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jim Miller

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 44%
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Reference quote—

Terrance McKinney

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 56%
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines and fight logs were compiled September 22, 2026. Per-round strike tables omitted. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are editorial estimates, not observed outcomes. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. The Hooper fight is a unanimous decision loss — a misleading Win tag was not used.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round lightweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Jim "A-10" Miller is 39-19 (1 NC), card rank #17, fight-night age 43, southpaw, 5'8" with a 71" reach. Rate line: 2.92 SLpM, 42% accuracy, 56% striking defence, 3.43 SApM, 1.49 TD/15 at 45%, 47% takedown defence and 1.7 Sub/15. Method chart of the 39 wins is 7 KO (18%) / 10 decision (26%) / 22 submission (56%). His last result was a guillotine of Jared Gordon from bottom guard at 3:29 of round one on May 9, 2026. Terrance "T. Wrecks" McKinney is 18-9, card rank #37, fight-night age 32, switch, 5'10" with a 73" reach. Rate line: 6.83 SLpM, 55% accuracy, 42% striking defence, 4.07 SApM, 3.27 TD/15 at 42%, 72% takedown defence and 1.8 Sub/15. He stopped Kyle Nelson in 24 seconds on March 28, 2026, then lost a first-round knockout to King Green on July 11. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take McKinney 56% / Miller 44% at conviction 4 / 10.

Jim Miller

Attribute

Terrance McKinney

Age

Aug 30, 1983 vs Sep 15, 199432

5'8"

Height

+2" McKinney5'10"

71"

Reach

+2" McKinney73"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

#17 LW

Card Rank

#37 LW

Announced SOS

UFC Sample

Guillotine, invite the shot

Fighting Style

Forward finish, first-round clock

McKinney is +2" in height and +2" in reach, eleven years younger, and a switch fighter. Miller is the southpaw whose entire UFC identity is the submission, especially the guillotine. A compiled matchup card lists McKinney's average fight time at 2:45. The pair is a large UFC sample. Rank says Miller. The clock says McKinney.

Venue Factor
Thirty feet does not make this a kickboxing match by itself. McKinney closes distance. Miller's guillotine of Gordon started when Gordon caught a kick and shot. A shot from a man at 3.27 TD/15 is the trap and the opportunity.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Jim Miller

Pro Record

39-19-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

47 sample bouts — method chart 7 KO / 10 decision / 22 submission

Streak

Guillotine of Gordon after a unanimous decision loss to Chase Hooper

Finish Rate

22 of 39 wins are submissions — the neck is the career

Avg Fight Time

Recent wins inside round one; Hooper loss went the full fifteen

Chin · Durable enough to hunt guillotines late in rounds; not a recent knockout victim in this windowSOS · Announced 29Southpaw Guillotine Specialist

Miller wins UFC fights by the neck, and he just did it again at 43 — Gordon from bottom guard after Gordon landed both of his takedowns. Before that he lost a unanimous decision to Chase Hooper (13-21 significant strikes, Hooper 8 of 14 takedowns and 10:08 control). A misleading Win tag on Hooper was rejected; the official result is a loss. Jackson was another round-one guillotine in November 2024.

Terrance McKinney

Pro Record

18-9-0

UFC Record

14 sample-file bouts; recent UFC wins arriving in round one

Streak

First-round knockout loss to Green after a 24-second TKO of Nelson

Finish Rate

Recent window is three first-round endings — win or loss

Avg Fight Time

Matchup-card average 2:45 — round two is optional in this window

Chin · Competitive on strikes vs Green (45-43) then finished late R1; Duncan anaconda at 2:30SOS · Announced 25First-Round Chaos Finisher

McKinney's three verified results are three first-round endings: Green knockout loss at 4:59, Nelson TKO at 0:24, Duncan anaconda at 2:30. Reporting after Nelson said UFC wins were coming in round one. He is not being blown out over three rounds in this window — he is ending it, or being ended, before round two.

Jim Miller

— dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Terrance McKinney

— dealt · — absorbed

Jim Millersignature weapons

GuillotineGordon from bottom guard R1 3:29; Jackson R1 2:44 — 22 of 39 career wins are submissions

×2

Invite the ShotGordon caught a kick and shot — the trap that creates the neck

×0

Terrance McKinneysignature weapons

Head Kick + PunchesNelson TKO at 0:24 — the base-case finish template

×1

3.27 TD/15 + 72% TDDWrestle volume with defence Miller (47%) does not have — and the guillotine risk if naked

×0

Jim Miller

Jared Gordon

Submission — Guillotine (bottom guard)

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (3:29)

May 9, 2026

Chase Hooper

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Apr 12, 2025

Damon Jackson

Submission — Guillotine

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (2:44)

Nov 16, 2024

Pattern

Miller's two wins in this window are the same choke. The loss went fifteen minutes against a younger wrestler who controlled him.

Terrance McKinney

King Green

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (4:59)

Jul 11, 2026

Kyle Nelson

TKO — head kick and punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (0:24)

Mar 28, 2026

Chris Duncan

Submission — Anaconda choke

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (2:30)

Dec 6, 2025

Pattern

McKinney's three results are three first-round endings, two of them losses. A fight that reaches round two is already unusual for him.

Jim Miller

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Terrance McKinney

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Miller's career chart is submission-heavy (22 of 39). McKinney's recent identity is first-round stoppage — Nelson in 24 seconds — or first-round loss. If this reaches the cards, McKinney has done something his recent log does not show.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Jim	Terrance
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Announced 29 — Card rank #17 against #37 — résumé favors Miller; age does not	Announced 25 — Shorter sample and lower announced SOS than Miller
UFC sample	47 sample bouts — method chart 7 KO / 10 decision / 22 submission	14 sample-file bouts; recent UFC wins arriving in round one
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 3 veteran tier	0 elite · 3 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Jared Gordon, Chase Hooper, Damon Jackson	King Green, Kyle Nelson, Chris Duncan

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Jim

Terrance

Miller 2.92 / 42% against McKinney 6.83 / 55%. McKinney's defence is 42%

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Jim

Terrance

Miller 1.7 Sub/15 and 22 submission wins. McKinney 3.27 TD/15 and 1.8 Sub/15 — and he just got choked by Duncan

Form

Sample

UFC depth

Jim

Terrance

47 UFC bouts against 14

Overall

Editorial blend

Jim

Terrance

Age, output, and the first-round clock outweigh the rank

Metric	Jim	Terrance
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.92	6.83
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	55%
Age	43	32
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.7	1.8
UFC Sample	47	14

Archetype Base Rate

Guillotine Specialist 44%56% First-Round Finisher

Editorial prior from age and output vs guillotine résumé · Not an archetype table lookup — the lean follows 6.83 SLpM and a 2:45 average clock discounted by Miller's Gordon guillotine and #17 rank.

Jim MillerTerrance McKinney

Lightweight

Stat	Jim	Jim rank	Div avg	Terrance rank	Terrance
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.92	—	—	—	6.83
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	—	—	—	55%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	56%	—	—	—	42%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.43	—	—	—	4.07
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.49	—	—	—	3.27
TD Acc	45%	—	—	—	42%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	47%	—	—	—	72%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.7	—	—	—	1.8
Reach	71"	—	—	—	73"
Prior UFC bouts	47	—	—	—	14
Card rank	#17	—	—	—	#37

Statistical Verdict
McKinney lands more than twice as much, more accurately, and gives up more defence. Miller's defensive striking is better and his output is not a way to win a kickboxing round. Submission rates are almost the same per 15 minutes. Miller's is a guillotine reputation. McKinney's is paired with a takedown rate more than double Miller's, and with 72% takedown defence against Miller's 47%.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Jim Miller

Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
Miller's two recent wins both ended in round one, at 3:29 and 2:44. The Hooper loss went 15:00.
Against Gordon he was 9-7 on significant strikes and finished after Gordon landed both takedowns.

Terrance McKinney

Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
McKinney's three recent results all ended in round one, at 4:59, 0:24, and 2:30.
The Green fight was 45-43 on significant strikes — competitive until the finish at the end of the round.

Critical Insight
If this fight is going to the scorecards, it will be because McKinney did something his recent log does not show. Miller can still find a guillotine in round one; Hooper showed he can also be held down for fifteen minutes and lose a decision.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Jim · N/ATerrance · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceTerrance owns it

6.83 SLpM at 55% against 2.92 at 42% — McKinney's output home

Pocket / ExchangesTerrance owns it

Nelson path — but Green showed the pocket cuts both ways

ClinchJim owns it

Guillotine identity — Gordon from bottom after the shot

GroundJim owns it

22 submission wins; McKinney's Duncan loss is the warning

The Deep Read

Miller wins UFC fights by the neck, and he just did it again at 43. McKinney wins them before the first minute is over, or he gets finished in the first round himself. The rank gap is real. The age gap is the larger fact on November 14.

Miller's two wins in this window are the same choke. McKinney's three results are three first-round endings, two of them losses. A fight that reaches round two is already unusual for McKinney and already a place Miller has lost minutes to a wrestler.

The rank (#17 vs #37) and the sample (47 vs 14) are why this is 56-44 and not a wider number for the younger man. The guillotine is a specific answer to a specific entry.

Path to Victory

Jim Miller

Force the shot, or wait for it, and lock the guillotine he has now finished people with. He does not need to win a striking round. He needs the mistake. Hooper is the version where the wrestler is careful and the fifteen minutes go the other way. McKinney has not been that wrestler.

Why they win

22 submission wins

The Gordon guillotine from bottom guard — career identity still current at 43.

56% striking defence

Better than McKinney's 42% when the fight is standing and measuring.

47 UFC fights

Sample depth and the #17 rank against #37.

1.7 Sub/15

Almost identical to McKinney's rate — but Miller's is the guillotine reputation.

The gameplan

1
Kick, invite the catch
Hips in, squeeze. The Gordon template.
2
Do not kickbox
A fifteen-minute fight at 2.92 SLpM is a loss.
3
Force the mistake
He needs the neck, not the cards.

Path to Victory

Terrance McKinney

Start the way the Nelson fight started. 6.83 SLpM and a switch stance against a 43-year-old who lands 2.92 is the minute that matters. If Miller catches a kick and looks for the guillotine, that is the Duncan risk. Do not hang the neck out the way Gordon did, and do not let a scramble become bottom position.

Why they win

6.83 SLpM at 55%

More than twice Miller's output at higher accuracy.

Eleven years younger

+2" height, +2" reach — the physical case on November 14.

24-second knockout

Nelson on the log; matchup-card average fight time 2:45.

72% takedown defence

Against Miller's 47% — harder to hold down the Hooper way.

The gameplan

1
Forward, kick, finish
The finish should come before the shot becomes the fight.
2
Do not shoot naked
His takedown rate says he will shoot anyway — protect the neck.
3
Treat round two as optional
Recent log says endings happen in round one.

Danger Zone

How Jim Miller loses

Nelson replication — finished in the opening minute before the guillotine appears.
Kickboxing at 2.92 SLpM for fifteen minutes — a loss on output alone.
McKinney shoots carefully and wins the wrestle without giving the neck.

Danger Zone

How Terrance McKinney loses

Naked shot into the Gordon guillotine — Duncan risk from the other side.
Scramble to bottom under a man with 22 submission wins.
Green replication — competitive strikes, finished late in round one.

McKinney's recent pattern

First-Round Binary

Nelson 24 seconds. Duncan choked him at 2:30. Green knocked him out at 4:59. He is ending it, or being ended, before round two.

straight R1 endings

Why Miller stays at 44%

The Guillotine Answer

Gordon gave him the neck from a takedown. Hooper did not. McKinney shoots at 3.27 TD/15 — the trap and the opportunity.

26%

Miller sub share

Why conviction stops at 4

Age vs Rank

#17 against #37 and 47 UFC fights keep the split narrow. Eleven years and 6.83 SLpM create the lean.

years younger

Miller's decision-loss pattern

Hooper Warning

Younger wrestler, careful entries, fifteen minutes of control. McKinney has not been that wrestler in this window — but the script exists.

The Five-Round Clock

Jim Miller danger windowTerrance McKinney danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00McKinney's kill window

Nelson path is the base case. Gordon guillotine is the live upset if a shot gives the neck.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. McKinney's equity is front-loaded into the first minute. Miller's equity is a specific neck in a scramble. Cards are the small branch for both.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

McKinney's 6.83 SLpM and first-round clock define the lean; Miller's Gordon guillotine and 22 submission wins define the ceiling.

Model: McKinney 56% / Miller 44%, conviction 4/10 — fair prices −127 / +127. No BetOnline quote on the September 22 board.

Best lean: McKinney by KO/TKO at 32%. Miller by submission at 26% is the price to care about if it is plus money.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Miller KO/TKO — 6%Miller Decision — 12%Miller Submission — 26%McKinney KO/TKO — 32%McKinney Decision — 10%McKinney Submission — 14%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Jim Miller gold · Terrance McKinney orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Output and age

6.83 SLpM at 55% against 2.92 at 42%, eleven years younger.

First-round clock

Nelson in 24 seconds; matchup-card average fight time 2:45.

Guillotine upset

Gordon from bottom — 26% submission share keeps Miller live.

Rank and sample

#17 vs #37 and 47 UFC bouts keep conviction at 4.

Mutual R1 volatility

Duncan and Green finished McKinney in round one; Miller can still find the neck.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Nelson Minute

McKinney starts forward, lands the kick and punches, and ends it in round one — the largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jim Miller win probability

12%

26%

KO/TKODECSUB

Six points — stays small. Seven of 39 career wins is the chart.
Twelve points — the Hooper script with the result flipped. Not the likely script against this opponent.
Twenty-six points — the Gordon guillotine. Largest upset bucket and matches 22 of 39 career wins.

Terrance McKinney win probability

32%

10%

14%

KO/TKODECSUB

Thirty-two points — the Nelson path, not the Green path.
Ten points — small because the recent log does not show fifteen-minute versions.
Fourteen points — on the rate line (1.8) and not how Nelson or Green ended.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Terrance

Jim

29-28 McKinney

Output rounds if the finish misses

Primary path inside McKinney's 10% decision share

29-28 Miller

Control minutes if McKinney fades after a failed early blitz

Inside Miller's 12% decision bucket

30-27 McKinney

Full fifteen of volume at 6.83 SLpM

Live if Miller never finds the neck

Model and price

Jim Miller

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 44%
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Terrance McKinney

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 56%
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jim Miller

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Terrance McKinney

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: McKinney by KO/TKO at 32% (fair +213). Miller by submission at 26% (fair +285) is the price to care about if it is plus money. Fight goes the distance 22% (fair +355); does not go the distance 78% (fair −355).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The first-round finisher is the lean. The guillotine is why the 43-year-old is still the other half of the fight. Conviction 4/10 — output and age create the edge; rank, sample and the Gordon finish keep it narrow. Lean: Terrance McKinney.

What backs the lean

6.83 SLpM at 55% against 2.92 at 42%
Eleven years younger, two inches taller, two inches longer
A 24-second knockout in March, and an average fight time on the matchup card of 2:45
72% takedown defence against Miller's 47%

What limits it

He guillotined Gordon in May, from the bottom, after a takedown
22 of 39 wins are submissions
#17 against #37, and 47 UFC fights
McKinney was choked by Duncan and knocked out by Green, both in round one

Final Assessment

In roughly 56 of 100 readings, Terrance McKinney turns the first round into the Nelson fight and wins by KO/TKO (32%), with a submission (14%) if the scramble goes his way. A decision is 10%. His recent log says round two is optional.

In the other 44, Jim Miller finds the neck the way he found Gordon's and wins by submission (26%). The decision share is 12%. The knockout share is 6%.

McKinney 56 / Miller 44, conviction 4 out of 10. The first-round finisher is the lean. The guillotine is why the 43-year-old is still the other half of the fight.

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