Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Jim Miller

“A-10”

39W19L

Guillotine Specialist

Terrance McKinney

“T. Wrecks”

18W9L

First-Round Burst

The fastest starter on the card against the UFC's most experienced guillotine

LightweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

McKinney's UFC fights are decided early: he has never reached a third round in the Octagon, and his losses come when opponents survive the opening burst and land back or find his neck. Miller has built his late career on catching aggressive opponents in guillotines, most recently Jared Gordon in May. The burst against the veteran's patience decides it.

Paths that change the fight

Jim MillerSurvive the opening burst and invite the entry. Miller does not need to win exchanges — he rarely does — he needs McKinney to shoot or rush forward with his head low, the way Gordon did in May. The guillotine is there on every level change. If the first round passes without a finish, the fight moves into rounds McKinney has not seen in the UFC, and Miller's ten career decision wins say he can manage a long fight.
Terrance McKinneyStart fast and stay disciplined. McKinney lands almost eight significant strikes a minute and finished 17 of his 18 wins in round one; a clean first round is the base case. The danger is his own aggression: shooting into a guillotine specialist, or chasing a finish with his chin exposed. Strike first, keep the takedowns selective and the neck tucked, and the numbers favour him clearly.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Miller has six career guillotine wins, including Jared Gordon in May
McKinney has been knocked down five times and stopped six times in the UFC

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jim Miller

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: +181 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Terrance McKinney

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: -215 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities, conviction and fair prices are MMA Analytics projections, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Jim Miller is 43, has fought in the UFC 47 times — more than anyone in the promotion's history — and keeps winning the same way. Three of his last five wins came by guillotine, the latest a first-round choke of Jared Gordon in May after Gordon took him down twice. When opponents do not give him the neck, the numbers turn against him: King Green out-landed him 186 to 57 at UFC 300, and Chase Hooper held him down for more than ten minutes in 2025. Terrance McKinney is the opposite kind of fighter. He lands close to eight significant strikes a minute in the UFC, has never reached a third round in 14 Octagon fights, and is 8-6 there with every result a finish. He stopped Kyle Nelson in 24 seconds in March and was knocked out by Green at 4:59 of round one in July. The two share Green and Erick Gonzalez as opponents, and McKinney's aggression — he also shoots, about three takedowns per 15 minutes — is exactly what Miller's guillotine feeds on. The lean is the younger finisher, with the choke as a real upset path.

Jim Miller

Attribute

Terrance McKinney

Age

Aug 30, 1983 vs Sep 15, 199432

5'8"

Height

+2" McKinney5'10"

71"

Reach

+2.5" McKinney73.5"

40"

Leg Reach

40"

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

28-18 (1 NC)

UFC Record

8-6

UFC Bouts

#17 LW

Card Rank

#37 LW

Southpaw guillotine specialist

Fighting Style

Explosive first-round finisher

McKinney is eleven years younger, two inches taller and two and a half inches longer in reach, and he fights from both stances. Miller's physical edge does not show on a tape: 47 UFC fights of positional experience and a guillotine that has finished six opponents in his career.

Venue Factor
Miller is 2-0 at Madison Square Garden — a decision over Thiago Alves at UFC 205 and a first-round guillotine of Damon Jackson at UFC 309. The 30-foot cage gives McKinney room to build his explosive starts; it also gives Miller room to back up and let McKinney's entries come to him.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Jim Miller

Pro Record

39-19-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

28-18 (1 NC) across 47 UFC bouts since October 2008

Streak

Won his last — guillotine of Jared Gordon (May 9, 2026); 3-2 in his last five

Finish Rate

74% (29 of 39 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 22 submissions

Avg Fight Time

9:38 (UFC)

Chin · Durable — 3 UFC knockdowns absorbed in 47 bouts; stopped by strikes twice (Cerrone 2014, Hooker 2018)SOS · Two decades of UFC lightweightsGuillotine Specialist

Miller made his UFC debut in 2008 and has fought 47 times in the Octagon, with 22 of his 39 career wins coming by submission. The late-career version is remarkably consistent. Since 2019 he is 10-6 in the UFC, and the wins are mostly early finishes: Jason Gonzalez, Clay Guida, Roosevelt Roberts, Donald Cerrone, Damon Jackson and Jared Gordon were all submitted, alongside knockouts of Erick Gonzalez, Nikolas Motta and Jesse Butler and a third-round face crank of Gabriel Benítez. The losses are decisions to younger, busier fighters — Scott Holtzman, Vinc Pichel, Joe Solecki, Alexander Hernandez, King Green and Chase Hooper — who either out-worked him on the feet or held him down. Over his UFC career he lands 2.92 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.43, so he rarely wins a long striking fight. What he does better than almost anyone is punish mistakes: 29 of his 52 UFC submission attempts came in round one.

Terrance McKinney

Pro Record

18-9-0

UFC Record

8-6 across 14 UFC bouts since June 2021 — all 14 ended inside the distance

Streak

Lost his last — TKO by King Green at 4:59 of round one (Jul 11, 2026)

Finish Rate

100% (18 of 18 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions

Avg Fight Time

2:28 (UFC)

Chin · Hittable — 5 UFC knockdowns absorbed; knocked out by Dober, Bonfim, Ribovics and GreenSOS · Mid-tier lightweightsExplosive First-Round Finisher

McKinney arrived in 2021 with a seven-second knockout of Matt Frevola and has never stopped fighting at that pace. In 14 UFC fights he has spent a combined 34 minutes in the cage — 2:28 per fight — landing 7.95 significant strikes a minute at 56% accuracy and mixing in three takedowns and more than two submission attempts per 15 minutes. Every one of his 18 professional wins is a finish, 17 of them in round one. The same approach produces his losses: Drew Dober, Ismael Bonfim, Esteban Ribovics and King Green knocked him out, and Nazim Sadykhov and Chris Duncan submitted him. Only two of his UFC fights reached round two, and none reached round three. The recent run shows both sides: first-round wins over Damir Hadzovic, Viacheslav Borshchev and Kyle Nelson, and first-round losses to Duncan and Green.

Jim Miller

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Terrance McKinney

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Jim Millersignature weapons

Guillotine chokeLatest: Jared Gordon, R1 3:29 (May 2026); Damon Jackson at Madison Square Garden (2024)

×6

Rear-naked chokeLatest: Jason Gonzalez, R1 2:12 (2019)

×7

ArmbarLatest: Roosevelt Roberts, R1 2:25 (2020)

×4

PunchesLatest: Jesse Butler, R1 0:23 (2023)

×5

Terrance McKinneysignature weapons

PunchesIncludes a seven-second KO of Matt Frevola (2021) and Damir Hadzovic (2025)

×6

Rear-naked chokeLatest in the UFC: Erick Gonzalez and Fares Ziam (2022)

×6

Head kickLatest: Kyle Nelson, R1 0:24 (Mar 2026)

×2

Guillotine chokeViacheslav Borshchev, R1 0:55 (Jun 2025)

×1

Jim Miller

Jared Gordon

Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (3:29)

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — May 9, 2026

Chase Hooper

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes — Apr 12, 2025

Damon Jackson

Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:44)

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic — Nov 16, 2024

King Green

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill — Apr 13, 2024

Gabriel Benítez

Submission — Face crank

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (3:25)

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 — Jan 13, 2024

Pattern

Three wins and two losses, and the split is clean. When opponents came forward and gave him the neck — Gabriel Benítez, Damon Jackson, Jared Gordon — he finished them. When they stayed disciplined he lost fifteen-minute decisions: King Green out-landed him 186 to 57 at UFC 300, and Chase Hooper landed 8 of 14 takedowns and controlled him for 10:08. Against Gordon he was taken down twice in the first round and still finished him at 3:29.

Terrance McKinney

King Green

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (4:59)

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Jul 11, 2026

Kyle Nelson

KO/TKO — Head kick and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (0:24)

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer — Mar 28, 2026

Chris Duncan

Submission — Anaconda choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:30)

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 — Dec 6, 2025

Viacheslav Borshchev

Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (0:55)

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira — Jun 28, 2025

Damir Hadzovic

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:01)

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov — Feb 1, 2025

Pattern

Every fight ends in round one, and the results alternate. He beat Hadzovic, Borshchev and Nelson in a combined 3:20. He lost to Duncan at 2:30 after being dropped and choked, and to Green at 4:59 in a round he was winning on the strike count (45–43) and on control (2:12).

Jim Miller

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Terrance McKinney

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Miller: 7 KO/TKOs, 22 submissions and 10 decisions in 39 professional wins. Of Miller's 29 finishes, 17 in round one, eight in round two and four in round three. McKinney: 9 KO/TKOs, 9 submissions and 0 decisions in 18 professional wins. Of McKinney's 18 finishes, 17 in round one and one in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Jim	Terrance
Erick Gonzalez	W· KO R2 0:14 (Oct 2021)	W· Rear-naked choke R1 2:17 (Aug 2022)
Both finished him; McKinney did it in the first round.
King Green	L· Unanimous decision (Apr 2024, UFC 300) — out-landed 186–57	L· TKO R1 4:59 (Jul 2026, UFC 329) — ahead 45–43 on strikes
Green beat both: Miller over fifteen minutes, McKinney with one second left in round one.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Jim

Terrance

Miller lands 2.92 a minute; McKinney 7.95 at 56%, and absorbs 4.76

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Jim

Terrance

Miller: 22 career submission wins and 1.72 attempts per 15. McKinney: 3.05 takedowns and 2.18 attempts per 15

Form

Metric	Jim	Terrance
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.92	7.95
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	56%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.43	4.76
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.49	3.05
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.72	2.18
UFC Bouts	47	14

Archetype Base Rate

Guillotine Veteran 44%56% First-Round Finisher

Matchup read: first-round volume and power against a submission specialist who waits for mistakes · The lean follows McKinney's speed and output; Miller's guillotine is why it stops at 56.

Jim MillerTerrance McKinney

Lightweight

· 57 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Jim	Jim comparison	Div avg	Terrance comparison	Terrance
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.92	-1.59 vs avg	4.51	+3.44 vs avg	7.95
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	-5.80 pp vs avg	47.8%	+8.20 pp vs avg	56%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	57%	+4.60 pp vs avg	52.4%	-10.40 pp vs avg	42%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.43	-0.72 vs avg	4.15	+0.61 vs avg	4.76
KD/15	0.20	-0.31 vs avg	0.51	+0.80 vs avg	1.31
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.49	-0.18 vs avg	1.67	+1.38 vs avg	3.05
TD Acc	45% (45 of 100)	—	—	—	47% (7 of 15)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	48% (55 of 105 conceded)	—	—	—	73% (3 of 11 conceded)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.72	+1.24 vs avg	0.48	+1.70 vs avg	2.18
Control / 15 min	3:07	—	—	—	6:46
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	9:38	—	—	—	2:28

Statistical Verdict
McKinney's line is extreme in both directions. He lands nearly twice the lightweight average and gets hit more than average, his knockdown rate is more than double the division norm, and his submission rate is even higher than Miller's. Miller's is a veteran grappler's line: low striking volume, better-than-average striking defence and a submission rate more than three times the division average. The weak cell for Miller is takedown defence — opponents have landed 55 of 105 attempts on him.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Jim Miller

Miller front-loads his grappling: 29 of his 52 UFC submission attempts came in round one, along with 22 of his 45 takedowns and an average of 61 seconds of control.
His striking stays flat and modest — 13.5, 11.3 and 13.0 landed per round — while opponents' output climbs from 12.6 to 15.4 to 18.7. The longer the fight, the more the numbers move against him.
Takedowns against him peak in round two (23 of the 55 he has conceded), which is how Chase Hooper turned their fight: five takedowns and 4:04 of control in the second round alone.

Terrance McKinney

Almost all of McKinney's UFC work happens in round one: 19.0 significant strikes at 58.5% in an average opening round, with 42.9% of them landed on the ground after takedowns or knockdowns.
Opponents land 10.3 on him per first round at 58.3% accuracy — he is easy to hit while he is attacking, which is how Dober, Ribovics and Green caught him.
Only two of his 14 UFC fights reached round two, and he lost both, to Ismael Bonfim and Nazim Sadykhov. He has never fought a third round in the Octagon.

Critical Insight
This is a first-round fight on both charts. McKinney does nearly all of his damage in the opening five minutes, and Miller throws most of his submissions there. If McKinney's burst fails, the later rounds are unfamiliar ground for him — and familiar, if not always kind, ground for Miller.

Strike targeting

Jim

59%

20%

21%

Head

59%

Body

20%

Legs

21%

Terrance

87%

13%

Head

87%

Body

13%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JimTerrance

71%Distance47%

15%Clinch12%

14%Ground41%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceTerrance owns it

McKinney lands 7.95 a minute to Miller's 2.92

Pocket / ExchangesTerrance owns it

McKinney's power — but Dober, Ribovics and Green caught him here

Clinch / ScramblesJim owns it

Where Miller's guillotines happen; McKinney shoots about three times per 15 minutes

GroundEven

McKinney pounds from top (42.9% of his round-one strikes); Miller submits from anywhere — 22 career submissions

The Deep Read

Jim Miller has fought 47 times in the UFC, and at 43 he still wins the way he did in 2008: by waiting for an opponent to give him a neck or a limb. Three of his last five wins are guillotines, the most recent a first-round choke of Jared Gordon in May after Gordon took him down twice. His losses are just as consistent — decisions to younger fighters who out-worked him on the feet or held him down.

Terrance McKinney is almost pure first round. Across 14 UFC fights he has spent 34 minutes in the cage, landed 7.95 significant strikes a minute and finished every fight one way or the other. He has won eight of them, most inside two minutes, and lost six — four by knockout and two by submission, the latest to King Green at 4:59 of round one in July. He has never seen round three in the UFC.

That creates a narrow set of outcomes. The most likely is a McKinney finish in the first round, before Miller's grappling matters. The most likely upset is Miller catching McKinney's aggression in a guillotine, exactly the trap Gordon walked into. Both men lost to King Green and both finished Erick Gonzalez, so the shared form offers little separation. The lean is McKinney, 56 to 44, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.

Path to Victory

Jim Miller

Survive the opening burst and invite the entry. Miller does not need to win exchanges — he rarely does — he needs McKinney to shoot or rush forward with his head low, the way Gordon did in May. The guillotine is there on every level change. If the first round passes without a finish, the fight moves into rounds McKinney has not seen in the UFC, and Miller's ten career decision wins say he can manage a long fight.

Why they win

The guillotine

Six career guillotine wins, three of them among his last six victories, the latest in May.

Submission rate

1.72 attempts per 15 minutes, more than three times the lightweight average.

Striking defence

57% against McKinney's 42%.

Experience

47 UFC fights and a 2-0 record at Madison Square Garden.

Later rounds

Ten career decision wins; McKinney has never been past round two in the UFC.

The gameplan

1
Weather the start
Keep a high guard and move off the fence through the first ninety seconds.
2
Invite the shot
Kicks and feints that tempt McKinney to change levels into the guillotine.
3
Snatch the neck
Any lowered head is a guillotine attempt; 29 of his 52 UFC attempts came in round one.
4
Clinch and slow it
Tie up and lean on him to drain the explosive first round.
5
Take it long
Every minute past round one favours the fighter with 47 UFC fights.

Path to Victory

Terrance McKinney

Start fast and stay disciplined. McKinney lands almost eight significant strikes a minute and finished 17 of his 18 wins in round one; a clean first round is the base case. The danger is his own aggression: shooting into a guillotine specialist, or chasing a finish with his chin exposed. Strike first, keep the takedowns selective and the neck tucked, and the numbers favour him clearly.

Why they win

Speed and volume

7.95 significant strikes a minute at 56%, against Miller's 2.92.

First-round finishing

17 of his 18 wins ended in round one.

Youth and size

Eleven years younger, two inches taller and two and a half inches longer in reach.

Takedown defence

73% against Miller's 48%.

Two stances

He switches stance, so Miller has to read both sides from the opening second.

The gameplan

1
Strike first
Win the opening exchange; his eight UFC wins took 9:40 combined.
2
Selective takedowns
Shoot off strikes rather than from range, and keep the head outside.
3
Ground strikes over scrambles
42.9% of his round-one strikes land on the ground; pound Miller rather than grapple with him.
4
Respect the counter
Green, Dober and Ribovics caught him while he pressed.
5
Close it in round one
He is 0-2 in UFC fights that reached round two.

Danger Zone

How Jim Miller loses

McKinney's opening burst lands clean before any grappling starts — the Hadzovic or Nelson version.
He is out-landed heavily over fifteen minutes, as King Green did at UFC 300.
McKinney wrestles carefully and holds position, the Chase Hooper script.

Danger Zone

How Terrance McKinney loses

He shoots or rushes in with his head low and gives Miller the guillotine, as Gordon did.
His burst is survived and he is caught on the counter, the way Green and Dober caught him.
The fight drags into round two and beyond, where his UFC record is 0-2.

Miller's late-career signature

The Guillotine Trap

Donald Cerrone in 2022, Damon Jackson in 2024 and Jared Gordon in 2026 — all guillotines, the last two in round one.

career guillotine wins

McKinney in the UFC

Never Seen Round Three

14 UFC fights, 14 finishes, 34 minutes in total. Only Ismael Bonfim and Nazim Sadykhov took him past round one, and both won.

2:28

average UFC fight time

Miller's first round

Front-Loaded Grappling

29 of Miller's 52 UFC submission attempts came in the first round — the round McKinney fights almost entirely in.

56%

of Miller's attempts in round one

Green and Gonzalez

Two Shared Opponents

King Green beat both — Miller on the cards, McKinney at 4:59 of round one. Both finished Erick Gonzalez.

0-2

combined against King Green

Miller at Madison Square Garden

At Home in the Garden

A decision over Thiago Alves at UFC 205 and a first-round guillotine of Damon Jackson at UFC 309.

2-0

Miller at MSG

The Five-Round Clock

Jim Miller danger windowTerrance McKinney danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00McKinney's burst

17 of his 18 career wins ended in round one, and he lands 19.0 at 58.5% in an average opening round. Miller's guillotine threat is also highest here.

Critical Insight
Round one belongs to McKinney's speed, with Miller's guillotine as the counter-threat. Every minute after that shifts the fight toward the veteran, which is why McKinney's plan is never to let it get there.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

McKinney's fights end in round one — his wins and his losses alike — so the opening five minutes are the whole handicap.

Miller's route is the guillotine on an aggressive entry, the exact finish he found against Jared Gordon in May.

If the first round passes without a finish, the fight moves toward the 43-year-old veteran.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Miller KO/TKO — 6%Miller Decision — 12%Miller Submission — 26%McKinney KO/TKO — 32%McKinney Decision — 10%McKinney Submission — 14%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Jim Miller gold · Terrance McKinney orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

First-round speed

McKinney lands 19.0 significant strikes in an average first round at 58.5%.

The guillotine

Miller has six career guillotine wins and throws most of his submissions in round one.

Age gap

43 against 32, with McKinney bigger in height and reach.

Durability

McKinney has been knocked down five times in 34 UFC minutes; Miller three times in 453.

Rounds two and three

McKinney has never won a UFC fight past round one; Miller has gone the full fifteen minutes 21 times in the UFC.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Opening Burst

McKinney lands first and finishes on the feet or with ground strikes inside the first round.

Scripted outcomes for Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jim Miller win probability

12%

26%

KO/TKODECSUB

Seven career knockouts; McKinney has been knocked out four times in the UFC, but Miller lands under three strikes a minute.
Miller has gone fifteen minutes 21 times in the UFC; McKinney never has.
The Gordon finish: the guillotine on McKinney's entry. The largest upset bucket.

Terrance McKinney win probability

32%

10%

14%

KO/TKODECSUB

The Nelson version — the base case, usually inside the first round.
Small: McKinney has never gone to a decision as a professional.
Nine career submission wins; a scramble after a takedown or a knockdown.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Terrance

Jim

29-28 Miller

McKinney's first round, then Miller's grappling

Most likely card inside Miller's 12% decision share

29-28 McKinney

McKinney's pace holds for two rounds

Most likely card inside McKinney's 10% decision share

30-27 McKinney

Output all fifteen minutes

The one-sided version

Model and price

Jim Miller

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: +181 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Estimated EV: +23.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: +9.7 pp

Terrance McKinney

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: -215 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Estimated EV: -18.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: -9.7 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jim Miller

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Terrance McKinney

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: McKinney by KO/TKO at 32% (fair +213). Miller by submission at 26% (fair +285) is the upset path to watch. Fight goes the distance 22% (fair +355); ends inside the distance 78% (fair −355).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The younger first-round finisher is the lean, but his aggression is exactly what Miller's guillotine punishes. Conviction 4 out of 10. Lean: Terrance McKinney.

What backs the lean

7.95 significant strikes a minute at 56% against Miller's 2.92
17 of 18 career wins in round one
Eleven years younger, taller and longer
73% takedown defence against Miller's 48%

What limits it

Miller has six career guillotine wins, including Jared Gordon in May
McKinney has been knocked down five times and stopped six times in the UFC
McKinney is 0-2 in UFC fights that reached round two
47 UFC fights and a 2-0 record at Madison Square Garden for Miller

Final Assessment

In roughly 56 of 100 readings, Terrance McKinney does what he usually does in round one and finishes it — by knockout (32%) or by submission after a takedown or knockdown (14%). A decision is 10%.

In the other 44, Jim Miller survives or invites the burst and catches the neck (26%), or out-grapples a tiring McKinney on the cards (12%). A knockout is 6%.

McKinney 56 / Miller 44, conviction 4 out of 10. The first-round finisher is the lean; the guillotine is why the 43-year-old is still half of this fight.

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