UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling takes place Saturday, November 21, 2026 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Former light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #2) meets unbeaten Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #5) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds.
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Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos is the three-round featherweight co-main event. Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Asu Almabayev, Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega and Jared Cannonier vs. Ikram Aliskerov complete the five-fight main card.
Odds shown are BetOnline prices where posted, alongside the probability each quote implies. They are not a guarantee of the best price across all books, and lines move before fight night.
Main event
Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 9/9 · Analyses available: 9/9
Tactical key
Stirling has won every opening round of his UFC career from range behind the jab and body kick, and he wants to counter Procházka's lunging entries the way his teammate Ulberg did in April. Procházka has to survive early with his guard up and drag the unbeaten kickboxer into the third, where he knocked out Hill and Rountree while trailing. Stirling has never faced power like this in the UFC.
What limits this estimate
Jiří Procházka: Survive the first ten minutes with his guard up and reach Round 3 healthy — that is where his output jumps to 44.3 at 71% and where he knocked out Hill and Rountree while trailing on volume.
Navajo Stirling: Win Round 1 as he always has, stay at range behind the jab and body kick, and counter the lunging entries the way Ulberg did against a man who absorbs 27.1 strikes per opening round.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Sterling's case is the Kattar version of his wrestling: body-lock entries from the clinch, long stretches on top, and rounds banked against a young striker who has never had to get up from the bottom in the Octagon. Vallejos lives on the counter to a level change, and both of Sterling's knockout losses came while he was moving forward. Open-distance shots are where this fight flips.
What limits this estimate
Aljamain Sterling: Win Round 1 without trading, enter on the body lock rather than the open shot, and turn ~94 seconds of control a round into two rounds on the cards against a man who has faced about thirteen takedown attempts in his career.
Kevin Vallejos: One clean knee or uppercut on a level change inside the first ten minutes: 1.65 knockdowns per 15 against a 37-year-old chin that has been dropped five times and stopped twice in the UFC.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
The opening round is Almabayev's window: his best wrestling round, and the only one in which anyone but Demetrious Johnson has taken Horiguchi down in the UFC. If Horiguchi stays upright or gets up fast, the standing minutes after that belong to the karate blitzer, and Almabayev's chain wrestling has stalled against Kape, Nicolau and Perez. The third round is the swing, when Almabayev's control peaks and his submissions arrive.
What limits this estimate
Kyoji Horiguchi: Survive Round 1 on his feet or get up fast, then make it a striking fight. From Round 2 on, non-Johnson opponents are 0 for 18 on takedowns against him, and he lands roughly 60% more per minute than Almabayev.
Asu Almabayev: Bank Round 1 on a takedown and a long ride, then win one of the next two on control, most likely the third, where his control share peaks at 62%.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Hooker wants a kickboxing match behind the jab and teep, taxing the legs and body of a shorter man in his lightweight debut, without shooting into Ortega's front headlock. Ortega does his best work late and from behind, turning a caught kick or broken clinch into a scramble. If Hooker's chin holds so soon after his last knockout, range should carry the cards; a late scramble is how it flips.
What limits this estimate
Dan Hooker: Keep it at kickboxing range for fifteen minutes. Six inches of reach, 4.82 strikes a minute against 3.84, and a 5-4 UFC decision record against 1-3 — if nobody gets finished, the cards belong to him.
Brian Ortega: Keep the fight alive and close at minute ten. Five of his seven UFC finishes came in Round 3, and one clean shot or one scramble finds a man who has not survived any of his three UFC knockdowns.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Aliskerov's formula is to respect the counter early, change levels behind the jab and body kick, and bank rounds on top of a fading former title challenger who cannot wrestle back. Cannonier has never won a three-round decision at middleweight, so he needs the counter right on the open southpaw line, the shot that started Whittaker's finish of Aliskerov. Every straight-line entry keeps that upset alive.
What limits this estimate
Jared Cannonier: One clean counter right on the open southpaw line before the takedowns take his legs — the same shot that started Whittaker's finish of Aliskerov, aimed at a 45% striking defense.
Ikram Aliskerov: Respect the counter for five minutes, then take it down: a takedown a round and two to three-and-a-half minutes of control is a 30-27 against a 42-year-old who cannot wrestle back.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Luna wants to fight behind a six-inch reach edge, kneeing the body whenever the pressure boxer walks in and wrestling only from a finished body lock. Topuria's path runs through the scrambles: Bryce Mitchell won the scramble off Luna's entry and rode him to a late submission, and Topuria is a black belt nobody in the UFC has held down. Clean clinch exits favor Luna; messy ones favor Topuria.
What limits this estimate
Santiago Luna: Keep Topuria at the end of a 74-inch reach, knee him to the body every time he closes, and wrestle only from a finished body lock — the Pacheco script, without the Mitchell scrambles.
Aleksandre Topuria: Turn Luna's entries into scrambles and win them — the one grappling weakness the Mitchell tape exposed — then take two close rounds on 68% defence and forward pressure.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
This is a race to the first clean power shot: Gaziev wants to walk Teixeira to the fence behind feints and the right hand, and Teixeira has been hurt every time a puncher walked him down. Length alone has never beaten Gaziev; counters on the entry and sustained volume have. If the taller man circles off the fence and keeps it busy, the older man's fading chin becomes the story.
What limits this estimate
Shamil Gaziev: Walk Teixeira to the fence inside ten minutes and land the right hand. He has been hurt every time a heavy puncher walked him down, and 29 of Gaziev's 45 simulated finishes arrive in Round 1.
Tallison Teixeira: Counter the entry and keep it busy. Gaziev has lost to faster, busier men who hit him on the way in — never to length — and he has been dropped three times on 102 strikes in his last three fights.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Costa owns the early rounds on pace and power, and he has to bank them with combinations rather than the single loaded shots Albazi countered when he knocked him out in their first meeting. Every UFC opponent who has taken Costa down has beaten him, so he has to break each clinch before it reaches the fence. The longer the fight runs, the more it tilts toward Albazi's control game.
What limits this estimate
Amir Albazi: Survive the first ten minutes without being dropped and turn one counter — the right cross or uppercut that has already put Costa down twice — into top control. The third round is his, and Costa has never won one in the Octagon.
Alessandro Costa: Bank Rounds 1 and 2 and never get pinned. 3.77 against 2.47 significant strikes a minute is about 20 extra landed over three rounds, and 87% takedown defence keeps it standing — but every UFC opponent who controlled him beat him. Throw combinations, not single loaded shots.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Matthews wants a range fight: counter the pawing entries with the straight right and make Tahir shoot from open space into a black belt's front headlock. Tahir has to wrestle early and from the clinch, because Matthews has never beaten an opponent who landed two takedowns on him. Waiting for the third round, as Tahir did in his UFC debut, would leave him behind on the cards.
What limits this estimate
Jake Matthews: Win the first ten minutes at range the way Nascimento did, and turn every Tahir shot into a front-headlock or back-take chance. He loses this fight mainly if he gives up two takedowns and carries the bottom position — he is 0-3 when that happens.
Tahir Abdullayev: Land two takedowns and hold him there. Matthews has never beaten an opponent who landed two, and he is 2-5 when an opponent banks 2:30 of control. Shoot early and from the clinch, not from open space into the front headlock.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling: event format, featured matchups and the evidence needed for a prediction.
The Story
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling takes place Saturday, November 21, 2026 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Former light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #2) meets unbeaten Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #5) over 5 rounds. Procházka returns after his knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg for the vacant title at UFC 327 in April. Stirling is 6-0 in the UFC and stopped Jan Błachowicz in August.
Aljamain Sterling (#4) vs. Kevin Vallejos (#9) is the featherweight co-main event, followed on the main card by Kyoji Horiguchi (#5) vs. Asu Almabayev (#7), Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega and Jared Cannonier vs. Ikram Aliskerov. Four bouts make up the prelims, led by Santiago Luna vs. Aleksandre Topuria. Every bout now has a full matchup analysis; win probabilities and fair lines are in the fight cards below and in the model-vs-market table.
Main Event — Light Heavyweight
01Jiří Procházka vs. Navajo Stirling
Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #2) meets Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #5) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds.
Co-Main — Featherweight
02Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos
Aljamain Sterling (26-5-0, ranked #4) meets Kevin Vallejos (18-1-0, ranked #9) at featherweight over 3 rounds.
Main Card — Flyweight
03Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Asu Almabayev
Kyoji Horiguchi (36-6-0, ranked #5) meets Asu Almabayev (24-3-0, ranked #7) at flyweight over 3 rounds.
Main Card — Lightweight
04Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega
Dan Hooker (24-15-0, ranked #13 at lightweight) meets Brian Ortega (16-5-0, ranked #13 at featherweight) at lightweight over 3 rounds.
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling takes place Saturday, November 21, 2026 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Former light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #2) meets unbeaten Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #5) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds. Nine bouts are scheduled: five on the main card and four on the prelims.
The main card starts at 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 21, 2026 on Paramount+. That is 2:00 PM PT, 10:00 PM GMT, 11:00 PM CET and 1:00 AM Sunday in Doha. The five-bout main card is headed by Procházka vs. Stirling, with Sterling vs. Vallejos as the co-main event. Broadcast schedules are subject to change.
Main card: Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #2) meets Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #5) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds. Aljamain Sterling (26-5-0, ranked #4) meets Kevin Vallejos (18-1-0, ranked #9) at featherweight in the co-main event. Kyoji Horiguchi (36-6-0, ranked #5) meets Asu Almabayev (24-3-0, ranked #7) at flyweight. Dan Hooker (24-15-0, ranked #13 at lightweight) meets Brian Ortega (16-5-0, ranked #13 at featherweight) at lightweight. Jared Cannonier (18-10-0, ranked #11) meets Ikram Aliskerov (18-2-0, ranked #13) at middleweight. Prelims: Santiago Luna (8-1-0) meets Aleksandre Topuria (7-1-0) at bantamweight. Shamil Gaziev (15-3-0) meets Tallison Teixeira (9-2-0) at heavyweight. Amir Albazi (17-3-0, ranked #9) meets Alessandro Costa (17-5-0) at flyweight. Jake Matthews (23-8-0) meets Tahir Abdullayev (20-3-0) at welterweight. Every bout except the main event is scheduled for 3 rounds.
Yes. Every bout has a full matchup analysis with a model win probability, a method breakdown and a fair line. In the main event the model makes Navajo Stirling a 55% favourite over Jiří Procházka; the strongest lean on the card is Ikram Aliskerov at 68% over Jared Cannonier. The betting market has not opened yet, so every price shown is a model fair line.
Jiří Procházka vs. Navajo Stirling is scheduled for five rounds. Every other announced bout is scheduled for three rounds. The order follows the card announced on September 29, 2026, and matchups remain subject to change.
Methodology
No black box. Published probabilities follow the same three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
1. We watch every fight
Recorded UFC performances provide the evidence — strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, damage, pace, and who each fighter has actually faced. No highlight reels, no reputation: just recorded performance.
2. We estimate the matchup
Each analysis weighs styles, cardio, durability and level of competition to describe likely outcomes. The 100-square chart visualizes that probability distribution; the number of squares is not evidence of model accuracy.
3. We compare it to the market
We compare the estimate with sportsbook prices, prioritizing BetOnline. Positive expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available price. Quote age, bookmaker margin and model uncertainty all affect how useful the comparison is.
What the percentages mean
74% next to a fighter means that fighter is estimated to win about 74 out of 100 comparable matchups under the model assumptions. Odds like -425 are the market's price; converting them to an implied percentage lets us compare like-for-like. The 🔴 🟡 🟢 icons tell you how much UFC data we have on each fighter; they do not measure prediction accuracy.
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: Analysis availability is labeled on every fight card. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
Analysis reliability (less experienced fighter):🟢 5+ UFC bouts🟡 3-4 UFC bouts🔴 fewer than 3
| Analysis reliability | Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 | Procházka vs Stirling | Jiří Procházka | 45% | —— | Navajo StirlingModel favorite | 55% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJiří Procházka45%——Navajo Stirling55%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Navajo Stirling. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟡 | Sterling vs Vallejos | Aljamain SterlingModel favorite | 58% | —— | Kevin Vallejos | 42% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAljamain Sterling58%——Kevin Vallejos42%—— Our read: We favor Aljamain Sterling. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Horiguchi vs Almabayev | Kyoji HoriguchiModel favorite | 58% | —— | Asu Almabayev | 42% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapKyoji Horiguchi58%——Asu Almabayev42%—— Our read: We favor Kyoji Horiguchi. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Hooker vs Ortega | Dan HookerModel favorite | 54% | —— | Brian Ortega | 46% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapDan Hooker54%——Brian Ortega46%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Dan Hooker. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Cannonier vs Aliskerov | Jared Cannonier | 32% | —— | Ikram AliskerovModel favorite | 68% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJared Cannonier32%——Ikram Aliskerov68%—— Our read: We favor Ikram Aliskerov. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🔴 | Luna vs Topuria | Santiago LunaModel favorite | 55% | —— | Aleksandre Topuria | 45% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapSantiago Luna55%——Aleksandre Topuria45%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Santiago Luna. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟡 | Gaziev vs Teixeira | Shamil GazievModel favorite | 55% | —— | Tallison Teixeira | 45% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapShamil Gaziev55%——Tallison Teixeira45%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Shamil Gaziev. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Albazi vs Costa | Amir Albazi | 46% | —— | Alessandro CostaModel favorite | 54% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAmir Albazi46%——Alessandro Costa54%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Alessandro Costa. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🔴 | Matthews vs Abdullayev | Jake MatthewsModel favorite | 62% | —— | Tahir Abdullayev | 38% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJake Matthews62%——Tahir Abdullayev38%—— Our read: We favor Jake Matthews. A market price is needed to assess value. |
