Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Shamil Gaziev — Heavyweight fighter

Shamil Gaziev

15W3L
Pressure Puncher
VS
Tallison Teixeira — Heavyweight fighter

Tallison Teixeira

“Xicão”
9W2L
Long-Limbed Finisher

Close to a coin flip, decided by the first clean power shot.

HeavyweightABHA Arena, Doha, QatarNovember 21, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

This is a race to the first clean power shot: Gaziev wants to walk Teixeira to the fence behind feints and the right hand, and Teixeira has been hurt every time a puncher walked him down. Length alone has never beaten Gaziev; counters on the entry and sustained volume have. If the taller man circles off the fence and keeps it busy, the older man's fading chin becomes the story.

Paths that change the fight

  • Shamil GazievWalk Teixeira to the fence inside ten minutes and land the right hand. He has been hurt every time a heavy puncher walked him down, and 29 of Gaziev's 45 simulated finishes arrive in Round 1.
  • Tallison TeixeiraCounter the entry and keep it busy. Gaziev has lost to faster, busier men who hit him on the way in — never to length — and he has been dropped three times on 102 strikes in his last three fights.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • Five inches of reach and ten years of age, plus 62% to 45% accuracy, a +0.75 striking differential against Gaziev's −1.96, and composites that favour Teixeira by about five points.
  • The harder schedule: Teixeira is 1-2 against opponents ranked at the time, with the only ranked win in the matchup; Gaziev is 0-2 and was out-landed by 54.5 per fight in them.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Shamil Gaziev

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.82

Tallison Teixeira

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career records, UFC fight logs and rate lines through September 2026; both career rate lines include one Contender Series bout (Gaziev vs Greg Velasco, Teixeira vs Arthur Lopes), with UFC-only rates shown where they differ. Composite scores, simulations, probabilities, fair prices and conviction are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Shamil Gaziev stopped his slide with an August knockout, proof the right hand is intact even as his chin starts to betray him at 36. Tallison Teixeira owns the youth and length, but both UFC defeats ended almost before they began, and his only win past the opening round came through wrestling. That route runs into a heavyweight who is hard to take down, so Teixeira must win exchanges of the kind that have hurt him before. The swing is recovery: once hurt, Gaziev has never come back, and Teixeira has escaped real trouble only with the rounds already banked.

Shamil Gaziev
Attribute
Tallison Teixeira
36
Age
10-year gap26
6'4"
Height
+3" Teixeira6'7"
78"
Reach
+5" Teixeira83"
45"+2" Gaziev — but only 2% of his strikes go to the legs
Leg Reach
43"
262 lbs
Last Weigh-In
258 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
KHK MMA, Manama (Bahrain)
Team
Team Lucas Mineiro, São José do Rio Preto
Dec 16, 2023 (UFC 296)
Octagon Debut
Feb 8, 2025 (UFC 312)
7 (4-3)
Octagon Bouts
4 (2-2)
0-2 (#12 Rozenstruik, #6 Cortes-Acosta)
vs Ranked at the Time
Rankings at the time of each bout1-2 (W #12 Tuivasa; L #9 Lewis, #3 Pavlovich)
55:343.3× — 15:00 of Teixeira's is one fight
UFC Cage Time
16:49
3 — all in his last 3 fightsGaziev better per minute, worse lately
UFC Knockdowns Absorbed
2 in 16:49 — both ended the fight
W · KO R1 1:20 vs Nzechukwu — 91 days out
Last Fight
L · KO R1 0:39 vs Pavlovich — 175 days out

Teixeira has the length, Gaziev has the mileage, and the weight is a wash. Teixeira is three inches taller and five inches longer (83" to 78") — but length is not how Gaziev loses. His three conquerors had 78", 78" and 79.5" of reach, and he is 2-0 against the two longest men he has fought: Don'Tale Mayes (6'6", 81"), shut out 30-27 on every card, and Kennedy Nzechukwu (83", 243 lbs), knocked out in 80 seconds. Rozenstruik, 6'2" with the same reach, led only 32-15 through two rounds, then out-landed a spent Gaziev 95-7 in Rounds 3 and 4 of a five-round main event. Gaziev's longer leg reach (45" to 43") barely matters — 2% of his strikes go to the legs. They last weighed in at 262 and 258. The other structural fact is a ten-year age gap: Gaziev is 36, has absorbed three knockdowns in twelve months and is on his fourth fight in 365 days; Teixeira is 26 and has never been past the third round of anything.

Venue Factor
Gaziev returns to the ABHA Arena, where Waldo Cortes-Acosta — a replacement named two to three days out — knocked him out in 82 seconds on November 22, 2025, 364 days before this bout and after Gaziev's longest layoff (294 days, following a broken finger). The setting still leans slightly his way: he trains in Bahrain, a short flight away, and his body clock is on Gulf time for a 1:00 AM local start. Teixeira fought in Sydney and Macau this year, so long-haul travel is not new to him. A small home-region edge, not a decisive one.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Shamil Gaziev walks away after knocking out Kennedy Nzechukwu, August 2026

Shamil Gaziev

Pro Record
15-3-0
UFC Record
4-3 across seven bouts since December 2023, plus 1-0 on the Contender Series
Streak
Won his last — KO of Kennedy Nzechukwu at 1:20 (Aug 22, 2026) after two straight KO losses
Finish Rate
87% (13 of 15 wins) — 10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
07:17 (incl. Contender Series)
Chin · Declining — no knockdowns on 181 strikes absorbed in his first four UFC fights, three on 102 in his last three; 3 KO/TKO lossesSOS · Mid-tierStriker / Boxing-Heavy

A proven puncher with a fading chin. Gaziev came to MMA from the Dagestan national volleyball team through Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov's class, moved to Bahrain in 2017, and was 12-0 after a Contender Series rear-naked choke and a Performance-of-the-Night UFC debut against Martin Buday (49-8 on strikes). Since then the UFC has shown both sides of him: stopped by Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#12) after his tank emptied in Rounds 3 and 4 of his first main event (7-95 in those two rounds); clear wins over Don'Tale Mayes (30-27 on all three cards, 11:58 of control) and Thomas Petersen, which took him to #11 in the rankings; then knocked out by Waldo Cortes-Acosta (#6) and Brando Peričić, absorbing three knockdowns in 10:06 of fighting after none in his first four UFC bouts. The Nzechukwu knockout in August stopped the slide and proved the right hand is intact. The pattern at 36 is just as clear: once he is hurt, he does not recover.

Tallison Teixeira throws a kick at Justin Tafa at UFC 312, February 2025

Tallison Teixeira

Pro Record
9-2-0
UFC Record
2-2 across four bouts since February 2025, plus 1-0 on the Contender Series
Streak
Lost his last — KO'd by Sergei Pavlovich at 0:39 (May 30, 2026); W-L-W-L in the UFC
Finish Rate
89% (8 of 9 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
03:45 (incl. Contender Series)
Chin · Vulnerable — 2 knockdowns absorbed in 16:49 of UFC time, and both ended the fightSOS · StrongWell-Rounded / Balanced MMA

A prospect whose chin has been found twice. Teixeira went 6-0 on the Brazilian regional scene with six first-round stoppages, knocked out Arthur Lopes on the Contender Series, and finished Justin Tafa 35 seconds into his UFC debut with a knee to the body and an elbow. Ranked #13 by then, he was put into a five-round main event against #9 Derrick Lewis in only his second Octagon fight, closed a −245 to −275 favourite and was stopped in 35 seconds. He rebuilt with a wrestling-heavy 29-28 ×3 decision over Tai Tuivasa — ranked #12, but 17 months out and on a five-fight skid — built on a takedown fifteen seconds in, mount, and 181 seconds of second-round control, before Tuivasa walked him down, won the third round 27-11 and had him stumbling and on his knees. Then Sergei Pavlovich knocked him out in 39 seconds as a +400 to +500 underdog. Elite power has beaten him quickly both times he has faced it, and his only work past the five-minute mark is one fight against one opponent.

Shamil Gaziev
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Tallison Teixeira
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Shamil Gazievsignature weapons

The Right HandBoth UFC knockouts since 2025 — Petersen at 3:12 of R1 (Feb 2025) and Nzechukwu with a doubled-up straight right at 1:20 of R1 (Aug 2026)
×2
Rear-Naked ChokeVelasco on the Contender Series (R1 2:38), plus Kolomytsev and Adyrbaev on the regional scene — none in the UFC, and zero UFC submission attempts
×3
The First-Round Finish11 of 13 career finishes came in Round 1; the latest finish of his career came 5:56 into a fight
×11

Tallison Teixeirasignature weapons

Knee to the Body, Then ElbowJustin Tafa at 0:35 of R1, UFC 312 — Performance of the Night
×1
Inverted Triangle ArmbarHis 2021 pro debut against Sena, R1 4:40 — his only career submission
×1
The First-Round FinishAll eight career finishes came inside the first five minutes; six of them came inside four
×8

Shamil Gaziev

W
Kennedy Nzechukwu
KO/TKO — Punch (doubled-up straight right)

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:20)
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues — Aug 22, 2026
L
Brando Peričić
KO/TKO — Punch (right hand)

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (3:44)
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates — May 2, 2026 (Fight of the Night)
L
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
KO/TKO — Punch (two knockdowns)

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (1:22)
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker — Nov 22, 2025 (ABHA Arena, Doha; opponent #6)
W
Thomas Petersen
KO/TKO — Punch (right hand)

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:12)
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov — Feb 1, 2025
W
Don'Tale Mayes
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov — Aug 3, 2024
Pattern

Trend: output rising, defence rate stable, durability declining. In his first four UFC fights he absorbed 181 significant strikes and was never knocked down; in his last three he absorbed 102 and was dropped three times, as opponents threw 16.7 significant strikes a minute at him instead of 7.4 while landing at the same rate (55% then, 53% now). A single right hand decided three of the last five inside 3:15 of Round 1 — his against Petersen and Nzechukwu, Cortes-Acosta's (#6) against him — and he won both of his knockouts while behind on strikes (−5, −1): he has out-landed only 2 of 7 UFC opponents. Peričić, an unranked 2-0 prospect, gave up a takedown and 2:46 of control in Round 1 and still out-landed him 42-25, then 47-16 before the knockdown at 3:44 of Round 2. In both losses Gaziev was the man walking forward when the counter landed. The Nzechukwu win proves the power is intact, not that the durability has returned.

Tallison Teixeira

L
Sergei Pavlovich
KO/TKO — Punch (overhand right)

Opponent context: elite

R1 (0:39)
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — May 30, 2026 (opponent #3)
W
Tai Tuivasa
Decision — Unanimous (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 — Jan 31, 2026 (opponent #12)
L
Derrick Lewis
KO/TKO — Punches (left-hand knockdown, ground strikes)

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (0:35)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira — Jul 12, 2025 (five-round main event; opponent #9)
W
Justin Tafa
KO/TKO — Knee to the body, then elbow

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (0:35)
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 — Feb 8, 2025 (Performance of the Night)
W
Arthur Lopes
KO/TKO — Punch

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (1:57)
Dana White's Contender Series — Sep 17, 2024 (professional, not a UFC bout)
Pattern

Four UFC fights, three against opponents ranked at the time, all four against knockout punchers — and hurt in three. #9 Lewis finished him on the ground at 0:35 after he had landed first; #3 Pavlovich dropped him at 0:39 — 16 significant strikes absorbed across the two. The Tuivasa win (#12 at the time) is the only evidence beyond the opening minutes, and it declined round by round: strike margin +17, +8, −16; control 3:57, 3:01, 0:02; takedowns 2 of 4, 1 of 1, 0 of 4. In Round 3 Tuivasa walked him down, won the round 27-11 with 3:10 of control, and had him stumbling backwards and later on his knees face down. He survived to the bell — the only time either man has been badly hurt and made it — and won 29-28 on all three cards on the rounds he had banked.

Shamil Gaziev

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Tallison Teixeira

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both donuts are career-scoped — Gaziev's fifteen wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions) and Teixeira's nine (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision), with largest-remainder rounding. The round bars are the real story. Gaziev has 11 first-round finishes and 2 in Round 2, and his latest finish came 5:56 into a fight, against Buday. All eight of Teixeira's finishes came inside the first five minutes, six of them inside four. Across 29 professional fights, neither man has ever stopped an opponent later than 5:56 of fight time, and 19 of their 21 finishes are first-round stoppages. Both have been finished or badly hurt late — Gaziev after four rounds against Rozenstruik, Teixeira in the third against Tuivasa — but neither has ever finished anyone late. In this bout, an early stoppage is most likely the finisher doing what he always does; a late one is most likely the loser fading.

Common Opponents

OpponentShamilTallison
Indirect link — Cortes-Acosta → Lewis / Rozenstruik → TuivasaL· KO R1 (1:22) to Cortes-Acosta; L · TKO after R4 to RozenstruikL· TKO R1 (0:35) to Lewis; W · UD vs Tuivasa
Two-step chains that point both ways: Cortes-Acosta knocked out Gaziev and then Lewis (January 2026), who had knocked out Teixeira; Rozenstruik stopped Gaziev and edged Tuivasa on a split (August 2024), whom Teixeira beat 29-28 on all three cards seventeen months later. None of these links is scored.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Shamil
0
Tallisonfew UFC fights

Ten points to Teixeira on the formula (about 48 on UFC-only inputs). Gaziev: 2.90 landed per minute (20th of 22 heavyweights), 45% accuracy (15th), 45% defence (17th), 4.86 absorbed and a −1.96 per-minute differential, the worst figure in this fight. Teixeira: 4.85 at 62% with a 41% defence — but the output falls to 3.69 without the Contender Series bout (on UFC-only rates both men project to land about 3.4 a minute against each other), and the accuracy leans on 93% ground accuracy against Tuivasa; at distance it is 52% to Gaziev's 40%. The formula cannot see Gaziev's one above-median striking input: 0.77 knockdowns per fifteen, 7th of 22.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Shamil
0
Tallisonfew UFC fights

A wash, 45 to 44. Gaziev: 1.03 takedowns per fifteen on 4 of 12, 83% defence with one takedown conceded in seven UFC fights, 0.26 submission attempts (a single one, on the Contender Series), plus a +3 adjustment for 96–119 seconds of control per round (11:58 of it came against Mayes). Teixeira: 2.40 takedowns per fifteen on 3 of 10, all against Tuivasa, 181 seconds of Round 2 control and a +4 adjustment for it — with a takedown defence scored at the division-neutral 50 because nobody has ever tried one on him.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Shamil
0
Tallisonfew UFC fights

Teixeira by about four and a half points, and almost all of it comes from accuracy and absorption rates that rest on 16:49 of UFC time — 89% of it from one fight against an opponent on a five-fight skid.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Shamil
0
Tallisonfew UFC fights

Gaziev's average fight time of 07:17 includes a fifteen-minute decision and twenty minutes against Rozenstruik. The Rozenstruik fight was a collapse at five-round pace — 5-47 in Round 3, 2-48 in Round 4, then he stayed on his stool — but his one three-round Round 3 (Mayes) was 3:58 of control and a won round. He is 36, on his fourth fight in 365 days. Teixeira has one fight past Round 1: output 19 → 21 → 11 while Tuivasa's rose 2 → 13 → 27, hurt and on his knees by the end, but ten years younger. A slight Teixeira edge; Round 3 is chaos for both.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Shamil
0.0
Tallison

The composites favour Teixeira by about five points and the pick is Gaziev anyway. On a full sample that gap would make Teixeira roughly a 55/45 favourite — the mirror of our 55/45 the other way. We count it as evidence rather than the verdict, because 80% of our outcomes are finishes and the formula measures neither power nor chin.

MetricShamilTallison
Avg Fight Time07:17 — 55:34 of UFC time03:45 — 16:49 of UFC timefew UFC fights
Pace TierLow — 2.90 SLpM (20th of 22)4.85 SLpM (3.69 UFC-only)few UFC fights
R3/R1 Output44% — "Fades Late" (collapse at five-round pace; a won control R3 vs Mayes)58% — one R3, lost 11-27 vs Tuivasafew UFC fights
R1 Finish Share85% — 11 of 13 finishes100% — 8 of 8 finishes
UFC Rounds Past R17 — including one R42 — both vs Tuivasafew UFC fights

Archetype Base Rate

Striker / Boxing-Heavy 50%50% Well-Rounded / Balanced MMA

No archetype base rate applied · No historical archetype win rate is used for this pairing, so the bar sits at a neutral 50/50. The 55-45 lean comes from the matchup evidence: the forward-power test, Gaziev's 83% takedown defence, his record against length and the two men's finishing records, weighed against composites and a schedule that favour Teixeira.

Shamil GazievTallison Teixeira

Heavyweight

· 22 fighters
StatShamilShamil rankDiv avgTallison rankTallison
SLpM2.90 (UFC 2.97)
20/22
4.54—4.85 (UFC 3.69)
Str Acc45%
15/22
53.2%—62%
Str Def45%
17/22
51.9%—41%
SApM4.86 (UFC 5.09)—3.89—4.10 (UFC 3.45)
Striking Differential−1.96 / min———+0.75 / min
KD Avg0.77 (UFC 0.54)
7/22
1.14—1.60 (UFC 0.89)
Damage Ratio0.60—1.32—1.18
TD/151.03
12/22
1.97—2.40 (UFC 2.68)
TD Acc33% (4 of 12)———30% (3 of 10)
TD Def83% (5 of 6)———Untested — zero attempts faced
Sub/150.26—0.45—0.00
Distance / Clinch Acc40% / 74%———52% / 100% (7 of 7)
Avg Fight Time07:17———03:45
Statistical Verdict
Every length, age, accuracy and differential marker favours Teixeira, several by a lot: five inches of reach, ten years, and a +0.75 striking differential against Gaziev's −1.96. The output edge does not survive a closer look — without the Contender Series bout both men project to land about 3.4 a minute. Every experience, takedown-defence and UFC-level finishing marker favours Gaziev: 3.3 times the cage time, one takedown conceded in seven UFC fights, three UFC knockouts to one. The two most relevant rows are nearly identical and both bad — striking defence of 45% and 41%, well under the 51.9% heavyweight mean. The per-minute stats describe who wins a fifteen-minute fight; the loss logs describe who gets knocked out first.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for Tallison Teixeira

Control Time per Round (sec)

Shamil Gaziev

  • His output holds for ten minutes — 14.1 significant strikes landed in an average first round, 14.3 in the second, accuracy steady near 48% — then the Round 3 average drops to 3.5. That average hides two different rounds: 2 significant strikes but 3:58 of control against Mayes (a won round), and a 5-47 collapse against Rozenstruik, followed by 2-48 in Round 4.
  • He is a body puncher in close: 27.7% of his first-round strikes and 30.1% of his second-round strikes go to the body, and his Round 2 clinch share jumps to 35%. His clinch accuracy is 74% (32 of 43) against 40% at distance (119 of 300).
  • 96–119 seconds of control per round through Round 3 — but concentrated: 11:58 of his 22:25 of UFC control came against Mayes, and 3:50 more in the first two rounds against Rozenstruik.

Tallison Teixeira

  • His Round 1 average blends four very different fights: two sub-40-second losses (0 and 3 landed), the Tafa knockout (8) and the first round against Tuivasa (19 landed, two takedowns, most of the 62-second control average). 60% of his first-round strikes land on the ground.
  • His Round 2 and Round 3 figures are one round each, against the same opponent. Round 2 was his best on record: 21 landed at 67.7%, one takedown and 181 seconds of control.
  • Round 3 is where it turned: Tuivasa won it 27-11 with 3:10 of control, Teixeira went 0 of 4 on takedowns, and 6 of his 11 strikes went to the body, 9 of them at distance. He profiles as "Fades Late" too — his Round 3 output was 58% of his Round 1 in that fight.
Critical Insight
Both tables fall off after Round 2 — Gaziev to 3.5 landed at 33%, Teixeira from 21 landed to 11 with 0 of 4 takedowns — though Gaziev's drop is partly a control round against Mayes and partly a five-round-pace collapse against Rozenstruik. That makes the middle round the pivot: Gaziev's last good striking round on the numbers (and the round in which Peričić finished him), Teixeira's best round on record, and Gaziev's highest clinch share (35%) — the range where Teixeira finished Tafa.

Strike targeting

Shamil

Head
71%
Body
27%
Legs
2%

Tallison

Head
76%
Body
21%
Legs
3%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

ShamilTallison
72%Distance49%
20%Clinch11%
8%Ground40%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceTallison owns it

83" reach against 78" and distance accuracy of 52% vs 40% — though Gaziev is 2-0 against the two 81"+ men he has faced, and Teixeira's range game has never been sustained past a minute against a puncher

Pocket / ExchangesShamil owns it

Gaziev's right hand (KD rate 7th of 22) against a 41% defence that failed every time a puncher walked Teixeira down — though Gaziev was the man advancing in all three of his losses

ClinchEven

Gaziev's most accurate phase (74%, 32 of 43; 35% of his Round 2 offence) against the knee-and-elbow sequence that finished Tafa in 35 seconds — both men are live here

GroundTallison owns it

If it gets there: 93% ground accuracy (25 of 27) and mount against Tuivasa — but getting there means beating 83% takedown defence, and Teixeira's own base has never been tested

The Deep Read

The most matchup-specific pattern in this fight is what happens when someone walks Tallison Teixeira down. In the UFC he has faced three opponents who moved forward and threw with bad intentions: Derrick Lewis for 35 seconds, Sergei Pavlovich for 39, and Tai Tuivasa for the final minutes of a third round. He was badly hurt all three times — finished twice, on his knees once. Against Lewis he landed first and was still dropped by the return left; against Pavlovich the overhand that dropped him reportedly did not land cleanly; against Tuivasa, ranked #12 but on a five-fight skid, a three-punch combination had him stumbling backwards. None were accumulation stoppages: he absorbed only 16 significant strikes across the two losses. Shamil Gaziev is not Lewis or Pavlovich, but his record rests on the same kind of shot: both of his UFC knockouts since 2025 came from the right hand. Three of three is a small sample and a 26-year-old can improve his defence, but it is the strongest single reason the model leans red.

The mirror image needs one word corrected. Gaziev has lost when he walked forward into someone faster or busier — not longer. Cortes-Acosta, backed to the fence, dropped him at 1:22; Peričić out-landed him 89-41 in 8:44; Rozenstruik landed 95-7 in Rounds 3 and 4 as Gaziev emptied. None had more than an inch of reach on him. Teixeira has the reach to counter the entry, and he did land first on Lewis. What he has not shown is the discipline to stay at range for more than a minute, or the pace — 5.5 significant attempts a minute in the UFC — that broke Gaziev in his losses. So the fight reduces to one question: does Teixeira stay long, counter and make it busy, or does he engage the way he has in every UFC fight so far? If he engages, his record says he gets hurt.

Which leaves the tension at the centre of this pick: the composites point at Teixeira and the pick is Gaziev. Teixeira is younger, longer and more accurate, owns the only ranked win in the matchup, and on a full sample a five-point composite gap would make him roughly a 55/45 favourite. We lean the other way, 55/45, because 80% of our outcomes end inside the distance, where power and durability decide and the formula measures neither; because Teixeira's rate stats come 89% from one fight plus a Contender Series bout that also manufactured his volume edge; and because his grappling edges depend on taking down a man who has stopped five of six attempts. The numbers are evidence, and the reason conviction is only 3 out of 10 — not the verdict.

Path to Victory

Shamil Gaziev

Walk Teixeira to the fence inside ten minutes and land the right hand. He has been hurt every time a heavy puncher walked him down, and 29 of Gaziev's 45 simulated finishes arrive in Round 1.

Why they win
01
A proven right hand at UFC level

Ten career knockouts, a knockdown rate ranked 7th of 22 heavyweights, and both of his UFC knockouts since 2025 from the right hand — Petersen at 3:12, Nzechukwu with a doubled-up straight right at 1:20. Two straight KO losses did not take the power.

02
Teixeira's reaction to forward power

Walked down by Lewis, by Pavlovich and by Tuivasa in Round 3 — and hurt all three times. Gaziev's whole approach is to walk forward and throw.

03
83% takedown defence

One takedown conceded on six attempts in seven UFC fights (Petersen). It takes away the takedowns and top control that produced Teixeira's only decision win.

04
Length has never beaten him

2-0 against the only two 81-inch-plus opponents he has faced — Mayes shut out 30-27 ×3, Nzechukwu (83") knocked out in 80 seconds. His three conquerors had 78", 78" and 79.5" of reach, and beat him with volume or a counter, not distance.

05
Cage time and the clinch

55:34 of UFC time to 16:49, seven rounds past Round 1 to two, and a won fifteen-minute fight (Mayes, 11:58 of control). In close he lands 74% of his clinch strikes and sends 26% of everything to the body — the tools for a 6'7" opponent who went to his knees in January.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Cut the cage; do not chase

    Both of his recent losses came while he walked straight in. He needs to get Teixeira's back to the fence with feints and body shots before committing the right hand.

  2. 2
    Go to the body early

    26% career body share, 30.1% in Round 2. A 6'7" frame that faded in January will fade faster if it is hit to the body in Round 1.

  3. 3
    Double up the right hand

    Nzechukwu went out to the second right. Teixeira's 41% striking defence is the lowest figure in this matchup.

  4. 4
    Punish the level change

    Sprawl, circle to the underhook, and make every takedown attempt cost Teixeira energy against the fence.

  5. 5
    Finish by ten minutes, or control

    If the fight reaches Round 3 at a striking pace, the Rozenstruik numbers move against him. The Mayes-style grind — 3:58 of control in that Round 3 — is the fallback if the jab is landing and he cannot plant the right, not the plan.

Path to Victory

Tallison Teixeira

Counter the entry and keep it busy. Gaziev has lost to faster, busier men who hit him on the way in — never to length — and he has been dropped three times on 102 strikes in his last three fights.

Why they win
01
Five inches of reach

83" against 78", and three inches of height — a real edge at range for the counter on the entry. It has not protected him before (Lewis gave up 4" and knocked him out in 35 seconds), and it is not how Gaziev has lost.

02
Ten years, and a fading chin

26 against a 36-year-old who took no knockdowns on 181 strikes absorbed in his first four UFC fights and three on 102 in his last three, lost both fights in which he was dropped, and collapsed 7-95 in Rounds 3-4 against Rozenstruik.

03
Accuracy and the better schedule

62% accuracy to 45% (52% to 40% at distance), a +0.75 differential against Gaziev's −1.96, and the only ranked win in the matchup: 1-2 against opponents ranked at the time, Gaziev 0-2. His career volume edge comes from the Contender Series bout.

04
A second phase

Three takedowns, mount and 181 seconds of Round 2 control against Tuivasa. On the other side, Gaziev's 83% rests on only six takedown attempts faced in the UFC.

05
Knees and elbows in close

He finished Tafa in 35 seconds with a knee to the body and an elbow. The clinch Gaziev wants — 35% of his Round 2 offence — is a range where Teixeira can finish too.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab, move and make it busy

    Gaziev lost to sustained volume — Peričić threw 163 significant strikes in 8:44 — not to length. Five inches of reach make a busy range fight possible, but it needs a pace (he throws 5.5 a minute in the UFC) and a discipline he has not yet shown.

  2. 2
    Never back straight up to the fence

    Every time he has been walked down he has been hurt. Circle off, take angles, and counter the entry rather than absorb it.

  3. 3
    Mix in takedowns early, not late

    His Round 1 entries worked against Tuivasa; his Round 3 entries went 0 for 4. If a takedown is coming, it needs to come in the first seven minutes.

  4. 4
    Knees and elbows when the clinch arrives

    He finished Tafa in the clinch in 35 seconds. If the takedowns are stuffed and the pressure is reaching him, the clinch is where Gaziev cannot throw the long right.

  5. 5
    Make Gaziev work

    His output collapsed after ten minutes of wrestling against Rozenstruik. Staying safe through Round 2 turns the fight into Teixeira's version of it — though his own only Round 3 was a 27-11 loss.

Danger Zone

How Shamil Gaziev loses

  • Cortes-Acosta again, in the same building. He presses Teixeira to the fence, plants to throw the right and runs into a faster counter — down twice before the two-minute mark.

  • Rozenstruik again, compressed into three rounds. He spends Rounds 1 and 2 chasing takedowns and clinches that do not stick (1 of 7 in 2024), empties the tank, and Teixeira's jab and knees find a stationary target in Round 3.

  • The takedown he did not expect. Teixeira times a level change against a pressure entry, reaches mount as he did against Tuivasa, and ends it with ground strikes in Round 2.

Danger Zone

How Tallison Teixeira loses

  • Pavlovich again. Gaziev comes straight at him, the first overhand does not even need to land cleanly, and he is knocked out inside a minute for the third time in five UFC fights.

  • His best weapon is taken away. Every early level change is stuffed against the fence, he burns energy in the clinch, and by Round 2 he is a tired, long striker with a 41% defence in a slugfest.

  • Tuivasa's third round, with a heavier puncher. He banks two rounds on volume, fades as he did in January, and a man with ten career knockouts catches him on his knees.

Why the model leans red

The Forward-Power Test

In the UFC, Teixeira has faced three opponents who walked forward and threw with bad intentions — Lewis, Pavlovich, and Tuivasa in Round 3 — and he was badly hurt all three times, each time by one or two heavy punches rather than accumulation. Gaziev walks forward and throws the right hand for a living, and both of his UFC knockouts since 2025 came from it.

3 of 3
UFC fights in which a puncher walked Teixeira down — and hurt him
What changed in Gaziev's last three fights

Durability, Not Defence

In his first four UFC fights Gaziev absorbed 181 significant strikes — 127 of them from Rozenstruik — and was never knocked down. In his last three he absorbed 102 and was dropped three times. Opponents land on him at the same rate as before (55%, now 53%); what changed is that they throw far more (16.7 a minute, from 7.4) and that the shots now put him down. It is the main reason Teixeira keeps 45%.

0 → 3
knockdowns absorbed: first four UFC fights vs last three
What his losses actually show

Length Is Not What Beats Gaziev

Gaziev is 2-0 against the only two 81-inch-plus opponents he has faced (Mayes 81", Nzechukwu 83"), and his three conquerors had 78", 78" and 79.5". What beat him was sustained volume — Peričić's 163 significant strikes in 8:44, Rozenstruik's 143 in Rounds 3 and 4 — and a counter as he planted. Teixeira brings the reach, but his UFC rate is 5.5 attempts a minute.

2-0
Gaziev vs opponents with 81"+ reach
UFC-only rates project level

The Volume Edge Was a Contender Series Artefact

Career rates projected Teixeira to out-land Gaziev about 4.6 to 3.3 a minute. But the Contender Series bout supplies 53 of Teixeira's 145 career attempts in 1:57. On UFC-only rates — 5.5 attempts a minute at 67% for Teixeira, 6.6 at 45% for Gaziev, blended with each other's defence — both project to land about 3.4 a minute. What Teixeira keeps is accuracy (52% to 40% at distance), not volume.

3.4 = 3.4
projected significant strikes landed per minute, UFC-only rates
Opposition quality, at the time of each bout

The Only Ranked Win Is Teixeira's

Three of Teixeira's four UFC opponents were ranked when he met them: he lost to #9 Lewis and #3 Pavlovich in a combined 1:14 and beat #12 Tuivasa, who was on a five-fight skid. Gaziev is 0-2 against the ranked (#12 Rozenstruik, #6 Cortes-Acosta), out-landed by 54.5 per fight in those two, and 4-1 against unranked opposition. The harder schedule is blue's.

1-2 vs 0-2
Teixeira vs Gaziev against opponents ranked at the time

The Five-Round Clock

Shamil Gaziev danger windowTallison Teixeira danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The kill zone — mostly red

50 of 100 simulated fights end here: Gaziev 29, Teixeira 21. It is where 19 of the two men's 21 career finishes happened and where 6 of their 11 UFC fights ended — Lewis and Pavlovich finished Teixeira by coming forward, and Cortes-Acosta finished Gaziev with a counter as he pressed.

Critical Insight
This fight is a race to the first clean shot. Five in eight of our finishes (50 of 80) come in the first five minutes, where Gaziev's forward right hand and Teixeira's poor reaction to pressure give red the larger share, 29 to 21. After that it narrows to 16-14 in finishes and 10-10 on the cards, so every minute Teixeira survives brings the fight closer to a coin flip.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

They have never met and share no opponents. Across 29 professional fights neither man has stopped anyone later than 5:56, 6 of their 11 UFC fights ended in Round 1, and between them they absorbed five knockdowns in their last six fights — a race to the first clean power shot, with 80 of our 100 simulations ending inside the distance.

2

The numbers and the pick point in different directions. Teixeira is younger, longer (83" to 78"), more accurate (62% to 45%), ahead on the composites by about five points and 1-2 against ranked opposition to Gaziev's 0-2. Gaziev has the proven UFC right hand, 83% takedown defence, a 2-0 record against 81-inch-plus opponents, and faces a man hurt every time a puncher walked him down.

3

Model: Gaziev 55% / Teixeira 45%, conviction 3/10; the market has not opened yet. The stronger opinion is how it ends: 80% inside the distance, 50% in Round 1 (fair price even money).

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Gaziev Decision — 10%Gaziev Submission — 3%Gaziev KO/TKO — 42%Teixeira KO/TKO — 32%Teixeira Decision — 10%Teixeira Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Shamil Gaziev gold · Tallison Teixeira orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Gaziev's right hand vs Teixeira's reaction to pressure

Teixeira was hurt in all three UFC fights in which he was walked down and absorbed only 16 significant strikes across his two knockout losses; both of Gaziev's UFC knockouts since 2025 came from the right hand. This drives the largest bucket on the page — Gaziev by KO/TKO, 42 of 100 — and most of it lands in Round 1.

Teixeira's counter vs Gaziev's entries

All three of Gaziev's losses came while he was advancing, against faster or busier men — none with more than an inch of reach on him. Teixeira's 32 KO/TKO wins are mostly a counter on the entry, or a Rozenstruik-style late collapse after Gaziev empties himself chasing takedowns. Length alone is not the route: Gaziev is 2-0 against 81-inch-plus opponents.

The takedown exchange

Teixeira's 3 of 10 — 0 of 4 when tired — against Gaziev's 83% (five of six stopped), and Gaziev's four UFC takedowns against a defence nobody has tested. It holds Teixeira's decision path to 10 and gives Gaziev's Mayes-style control decision 10.

Volume, accuracy and the late rounds

On UFC-only rates both men project to land about 3.4 significant strikes a minute — the career-rate 4.6-to-3.3 edge came from Teixeira's Contender Series bout. Teixeira keeps the accuracy (52% to 40% at distance). Late on, Gaziev collapsed at five-round pace but won a controlled three-round Round 3; Teixeira lost his only Round 3 27-11. The fifteen-minute version of this fight happens one time in five.

Chin trend, schedule and venue

Gaziev took no knockdowns on 181 strikes in his first four UFC fights and three on 102 since, at 36, in his fourth fight in 365 days; Teixeira was dropped by the first clean shot from both ranked punchers he has met. Teixeira's 1-2 record against opponents ranked at the time (Gaziev 0-2) and his rates, weighted toward the division mean, keep him at 45; Gaziev gets a small edge for training a short flight from Doha.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Right Hand Finds Him

Gaziev walks Teixeira toward the fence, feints to the body and lands the right hand on a man who was hurt by the first heavy shot that landed in both of his losses. Most of these end inside the first five minutes — the Petersen and Nzechukwu template, delivered to the chin Lewis and Pavlovich already found.

Scripted outcomes for Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Shamil Gaziev win probability
0%
42%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest bucket on the page. A proven UFC right hand — three UFC knockouts, knockdown rate 7th of 22 — against a fighter hurt by the first heavy shot that landed in both of his losses and hurt under pressure in the one fight he won on points. 29 of Gaziev's 45 inside-the-distance wins land in Round 1.

  • The Mayes path: 30-27 on all three cards behind 11:58 of control and two takedowns, including a won Round 3, against an opponent whose takedown defence has never been tested. Held to 10 because his striking output collapsed at five-round pace.

  • Three career rear-naked chokes, none in the UFC, and zero UFC submission attempts. A scramble or back-take outcome, not a hunted path.

Tallison Teixeira win probability
0%
32%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Nearly as large: 62% accuracy, a counter on the entry and elbow-and-knee finishing against a 36-year-old with a 45% defence who has been dropped three times on 102 strikes in a year. It includes ground-strike stoppages after a takedown and accumulation stoppages in Round 3. It stops short of Gaziev's share because length is not how Gaziev has lost.

  • Bank the takedowns early and out-accumulate — held down because the volume edge does not survive on UFC-only rates. Capped at 10 because we expect him to finish or be finished in most fights, and because his only decision win nearly ended in a stoppage loss in Round 3.

  • One career submission (an inverted triangle armbar in his 2021 debut) and a rear-naked-choke hunt from three-quarter mount against Tuivasa that never became an official submission attempt. Thin.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Tallison
R2
Shamil
R3
Even
29-28 Gaziev
Drops Round 1 to range and an early level change, takes Round 2 on clinch control and body work, and wins a tired Round 3 the way he won Round 3 against Mayes — on top
Co-modal — Gaziev holds 10 of the 20 decisions
29-28 Teixeira
Banks Round 1 on range and an early takedown, loses Round 2 to Gaziev's clinch and body work, and edges a Round 3 in which Gaziev's output falls
Co-modal — Teixeira holds the other 10
30-27 Gaziev
The Mayes blueprint: every round won on clinch control and takedowns against an untested base
His cleanest decision, and one he has already produced in the UFC

Model and price

Shamil Gaziev

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Tallison Teixeira

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Shamil Gaziev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Tallison Teixeira

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

With no market posted, the strongest opinion here is about how the fight ends, not who wins it: 80% inside the distance (model fair −400) and 50% in Round 1 (fair even money) are the two most confident numbers on the page, so "fight ends in Round 1" at plus money is the first prop to check when lines open. On the moneyline we lean Gaziev, with value only at −121 or better. If the market opens him around −150, neither side is a bet: our 45% on Teixeira barely beats a +125 line's implied 44.4%, and he needs +130 or longer (43.5%) for a real edge. Back whichever side the market underprices, not automatically the side we lean, and avoid both submission props: they are thin paths.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean but a weak one. It is capped by Teixeira's brief UFC résumé (16:49 in the UFC, 15:00 of it against one opponent), by composites that point the other way by about five points, by Teixeira's harder schedule, and by the fact that both men's key chin evidence is a handful of knockdowns. In a heavyweight fight projected to end inside the distance four times in five, a 55% lean is still close to a coin flip. Lean: Shamil Gaziev.

What backs the lean

  • The forward-power test: Teixeira was hurt in all three UFC fights in which a puncher walked him down, and was dropped by 16 strikes in total across his two losses.

  • 83% takedown defence — five of six attempts stopped in seven UFC fights — which blocks Teixeira's only proven decision path.

  • Length is not how Gaziev loses: 2-0 against 81-inch-plus opponents, beaten only by sustained volume or a counter, and Teixeira throws 5.5 significant strikes a minute.

  • 3.3 times the UFC cage time, three UFC knockouts to one, and one sub-90-second loss against Teixeira's two sub-40-second losses.

What limits it

  • Five inches of reach and ten years of age, plus 62% to 45% accuracy, a +0.75 striking differential against Gaziev's −1.96, and composites that favour Teixeira by about five points.

  • The harder schedule: Teixeira is 1-2 against opponents ranked at the time, with the only ranked win in the matchup; Gaziev is 0-2 and was out-landed by 54.5 per fight in them.

  • Gaziev's durability trend: no knockdowns on 181 strikes absorbed in his first four UFC fights, three on 102 in his last three — at 36, in his fourth fight in 365 days.

  • Heavyweight variance: every branch of this fight is one punch from reversing.

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 simulations, Shamil Gaziev does what he has done throughout his career: he wins early. Most often (42) he walks Teixeira toward the fence, feints to the body and lands the right hand on a man who was hurt by the first heavy shot that landed in both of his losses — 29 of his 45 finishes come inside the first five minutes. Occasionally (10) he takes the length out of the fight in the clinch, stuffs the level changes and grinds out a control decision like the Mayes fight, when he spent 3:58 of Round 3 on top. Rarely (3) he takes the back in a scramble for his fourth career rear-naked choke. The lean requires only one thing: that the fourth time a heavy puncher walks Teixeira down goes the way the first three did.

In the other 45, Tallison Teixeira's accuracy and youth decide it. The most common version (32) is the Cortes-Acosta and Peričić fights again — Gaziev plants to throw and a faster man hits him first — or the late Rozenstruik fight, where Gaziev empties himself chasing takedowns and a jab and knees break down a 36-year-old in Round 3. Sometimes (10) Teixeira stays disciplined, lands his takedowns while he is fresh and banks two rounds as he did against Tuivasa. Rarely (3) he reaches mount and finishes with a choke instead of strikes.

On the numbers Teixeira is younger, longer, more accurate and has beaten the better opposition, and the composites favour him by about five points; only his volume edge disappears on UFC-only rates. Gaziev has the more reliable UFC finishing power, the takedown defence and far more experience, has never lost to length, and faces an opponent who has been hurt every time someone walked him down. In Doha on November 21 we take Shamil Gaziev by a small margin, most likely inside the first five minutes. The fight ends inside the distance in 80% of our simulations and in Round 1 in half of them, which makes that a stronger opinion than the pick itself.

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