The APEX gets a top-six welterweight main event built on two opposite games. On Saturday, November 7, No. 5 Gabriel Bonfim (20-1), owner of the welterweight division's best striking defense, meets No. 6 Sean Brady (19-2), the wrestler who guillotined Leon Edwards in the fourth round of a five-round main event. Thirteen bouts are on the card. Model lean: Brady 55–45. Live on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT.
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Range against the clinch over five rounds: No. 5 Gabriel Bonfim (20-1), the division's best striking defense, against No. 6 Sean Brady (19-2), who banks 131 seconds of control per round and guillotined Leon Edwards. Model lean: Brady 55–45, conviction 4/10.
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Main event
Welterweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 13/13 · Analyses available: 13/13
Tactical key
Brady wants a small cage: feints and low kicks to get close, then a body lock and a walk to the fence, the route that broke down Leon Edwards. Bonfim needs open space, jabbing down and chopping the lead leg as he did against Belal Muhammad, with a right hand waiting for a chin that has failed at range. Every trip to the fence banks rounds for Brady.
What limits this estimate
Gabriel Bonfim: Twenty-five minutes fought in the middle of the cage. If the tie-up never happens, the jab, the calf kick and the division's best striking defense out-score a wrestler who has to keep paying an entry tax — exactly the way a former champion was swept 50-45 in June.
Sean Brady: One body lock and a walk to the chain link. 87% takedown defense means Bonfim cannot reverse the exchange, and 131 seconds of control per round across five rounds is roughly four extra minutes of top position that no judging panel in Nevada ignores.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Suarez wins fights by getting on top early and staying there, the way she rode Amanda Lemos and choked out Loopy Godinez. Jandiroba has never been finished and is most dangerous in scrambles, but her losses have come when opponents out-landed her on the feet. If her takedown defence holds through the opening round, the later rounds open up for her.
What limits this estimate
Virna Jandiroba: Survive the first-round takedown chains, get on top herself by the middle of the fight, and attack every exposed arm and neck in the scrambles — the route that finished Amanda Lemos after four submission attempts.
Tatiana Suarez: Chain takedowns in the opening round, ride the fence and the back, and bank rounds on control — 161 seconds a round of it — while waiting for the neck to open.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Every time Schultz has walked through a striker to reach the clinch, he has been hurt on the way in, and the clinch is where Kondratavičius dropped Trócoli with an elbow. Schultz's answer is the neck: his only UFC win was a third-round guillotine, Kondratavičius's lone loss was a choke, and the Lithuanian's only third round went badly.
What limits this estimate
Mantas Kondratavičius: Win the range, punish Schultz's entries with knees and elbows, keep his head clear of the front headlock, and bank the first two rounds without emptying the tank.
Wes Schultz: Survive Round 1, tie Kondratavičius up and make him carry weight, and find the neck in a scramble — ideally when the Lithuanian changes levels or tires in Round 3.
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Model estimate
Tactical key
Silva's route is the mat: she submitted three straight UFC opponents in the first round, and Fernandes has spent long stretches underneath against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. Fernandes wants range and volume from southpaw, where her output runs well ahead of Silva's. Silva's own takedown defence is the weak link — if she ends up on her back, the fight turns toward Fernandes.
What limits this estimate
Karine Silva: Get the fight to the mat in the first round, take the back, and finish it the way she finished three straight UFC opponents — before Fernandes's southpaw volume builds a lead.
Gabriella Fernandes: Keep it standing, out-land Silva round after round, stop the entries with a 69% takedown defence, and bank a decision if the choke never comes.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Smith fights in a hurry: he wants top position early and the back soon after, the way he choked out SuYoung You. Grant has never been knocked out, but his losses tend to start the same way — hurt or taken down early, then caught in a choke, as Charles Jourdain showed. If the veteran survives the opening minutes on his feet, his volume and leg kicks take over.
What limits this estimate
Davey Grant: Get through the first round upright, make the tie-ups expensive with knees and body kicks, and let the output that rises after the first five minutes take the last two rounds.
Elijah Smith: Close the distance early, get on top, and find the back while Grant is still in the round where he has been hurt four times.
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Model estimate
Tactical key
Souza fights long behind the jab and straight punches, and his clearest work against Ding Meng came in the final round. Parsons has to close that distance and repeat the Danny Roberts pattern — legs and body first, then upstairs — and he returns after more than three years out of the cage. If Souza's range survives the early rounds, the fight tilts toward the fresher man.
What limits this estimate
José Souza: Keep Parsons at the end of a 79-inch reach for fifteen minutes, win the later rounds as he did against Ding Meng, and make the layoff show.
Jonny Parsons: Close the distance, work the legs and body early, and turn a pocket exchange into the knockdowns that finished Danny Roberts before Souza's length takes over.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Magomedov has finished every opponent of his career, most inside the first round, and his twister of Baghdasaryan showed how fast a single takedown becomes a submission. Delano's answer is the pace that broke Ruchała: survive the opening round, punish every entry with knees and body kicks, and drag the unbeaten finisher into a third round he has rarely seen.
What limits this estimate
José Delano: Survive the first round without conceding a clean entry, then run the Ruchała script — 40-plus significant strikes a round, knees in the clinch and a body attack that drains a fighter who has never gone past 13:14.
Murtazali Magomedov: Win the first five minutes with the jab, hide the level change behind it, and get hold of Delano before his pace arrives — the Baghdasaryan sequence, or the Zurcher one.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Ko wins fights from top position: he rode Oban Elliott and Phil Rowe through most of their fights, then lost when Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani stuffed his shots and put him on his back instead. Turman is a jiu-jitsu black belt returning from a nearly three-year layoff, and Andre Petroski showed how his takedown defence gives way. His opening is the scramble after Ko's entries.
What limits this estimate
Seok Hyeon Ko: Close from the clinch rather than from range, trip or body-lock Turman to the fence, and stay heavy on top — the Rowe fight, with more resistance — until the scorecards or the ground strikes decide it.
Wellington Turman: Make every entry cost something with the kicks, punish the first level change with a guillotine, and turn each takedown into a scramble — the Cirkunov armbar and the Lebosnoyani script in one fight.
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Tactical key
Bashi's two UFC losses came to Rodriguez and Delgado, who beat him on the feet while he shot and missed; Brennan is no such striker, but his chokes punish exactly that kind of failed entry. If Bashi finishes his shots and rides from the top, the rounds stack up; if Brennan catches the neck in a scramble, a single exchange flips it.
What limits this estimate
Austin Bashi: Finish his entries along the fence rather than from open space, keep his head inside to deny the front headlock, and bank the first two rounds on control before his takedowns tail off in the third.
Lucas Brennan: Make the first failed shot expensive — sprawl into the front headlock or scramble to the back in the first round, where eight of his ten career finishes came.
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Tactical key
Fernando breaks opponents to the body — a knee to the midsection finished Rafael Tobias — and Elekana's only UFC loss came when Bogdan Guskov's body shots drained him in the second round. Elekana's answer is the scramble: both of his Octagon finishes came from the back after his right hand had stunned the other man.
What limits this estimate
Billy Elekana: Survive the body work, win a clinch or a caught kick, and turn one right hand into a back take — the sequence that finished Christian and Tafa.
Lucas Fernando: Keep Elekana on the end of an 80-inch jab, invest in the body from the first minute, never reach — then take over in Round 3.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Lorenço has ended almost all of his wins inside the first round, and Hines was stopped early in his last fight by RJ Harris, who had also beaten Lorenço's Contender Series opponent. Hines's route is the one he showed against Jhonata Diniz: relentless volume and forward pressure, backed by a weight edge of more than thirty pounds, dragging a debutant who has rarely seen a second round into deep water.
What limits this estimate
Alvin Hines: Survive the first round with his head off the centre line, then lean 264 lb on a lighter man against the fence and out-work him in Rounds 2 and 3, the way he won the third against Diniz.
Gabriel Lorenço: Time the right hand over Hines's forward march in the opening minutes, as he did against Cleveland, against a fighter whose UFC opponents have landed 58% of their head strikes.
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Tactical key
Nakamura's biggest finishes have come from a southpaw knee, the latest after Sebastian Szalay had out-worked him for two rounds. Schmid's cleanest work in his debut went to the body and legs, exactly where Szalay hurt Nakamura, so his kicks can build a lead only if he stops stepping straight into the pocket where that knee waits.
What limits this estimate
Ollie Schmid: Kick the body and legs from range, bank the first two rounds the way Szalay did, and never step straight into the pocket where Nakamura's rear knee waits.
Keiichiro Nakamura: Let Schmid kick, cover the body, and counter the straight entry or spinning attack with the southpaw knee or straight left — at any point, including the third round.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Cachoeira wins fights in the opening minutes, charging forward behind uppercuts, and loses them once an opponent survives the rush and either counters her entries, as Edwards did, or drops her and takes her back, as Chandler did. Milošević broke Hailey Cowan with patient body punches; her task is to weather the early storm before sharper striking and a submission game take over.
What limits this estimate
Priscila Cachoeira: Land the rush early — her UFC knockouts came at 0:40, 1:05 and 2:46 — and keep the fight standing, because every round it lasts moves it toward Milošević.
Nina Milošević: Let Cachoeira come, counter the entry to the head and body, and punish any hurt moment on the ground — the ways Cachoeira has lost most often.
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Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Vegas — the narrative, the announced bouts, the questions everyone asks, and how the model reads an evolving card.
The Story
This is one of the best main events the APEX will host all year: two of the division's top six, with opposite plans for the same twenty-five minutes. Gabriel "Marretinha" Bonfim (20-1, No. 5) entered the UFC 13-0 with every win a stoppage, has lost only once, to Nicolas Dalby, and has rebuilt into a rangy kickboxer: he owns the welterweight division's best striking defense (64%, first among 54) and swept former champion Belal Muhammad 50-45 on all three cards in June with zero takedowns landed. Across from him, Sean Brady (19-2, No. 6) banks 131 seconds of control per round to Bonfim's 38, has been taken down twice on fifteen attempts across eleven UFC fights (87% takedown defense), and has solved this assignment before, guillotining Leon Edwards from mount in Round 4 of a five-round main event. Bonfim wants open space; Brady wants the fence, and whoever owns the distance owns the fight.
MMA Analytics leans Brady 55% / Bonfim 45% (conviction 4/10). Every trip to the fence banks rounds for Brady, and the late rounds lean his way: all seventeen of Bonfim's career finishes came inside three rounds, while Brady has two fourth-round stoppages. The lean stays modest because Bonfim's takedown defense has never faced a wrestler of this grade and Brady was stopped in 3:27 by Michael Morales in November 2025. The co-main pairs No. 3 Virna Jandiroba (23-4) with No. 2 Tatiana Suarez (12-1) at women's strawweight, with the model on Suarez at 62%. The main card also features Mantas Kondratavičius (9-1) vs. Wes Schultz (9-4) at middleweight, Kondratavičius 70%, and No. 11 Karine Silva (19-7) vs. No. 15 Gabriella Fernandes (11-4) at women's flyweight, Silva 54%.
The prelims carry nine more bouts. The model leans Elijah Smith (10-1) 63% over Davey Grant (18-8), a veteran who has never been knocked out in twenty-six pro fights but was submitted in four of his seven UFC losses; José Souza 52% over Jonny Parsons, the closest call on the card; Murtazali Magomedov (11-0, every win a finish) 58% over the volume of José Delano; Seok Hyeon Ko 66% over Wellington Turman, who returns after almost three years away; Austin Bashi 60% over Lucas Brennan; Lucas Fernando 60% over Billy Elekana; Gabriel Lorenço, making his UFC debut, 68% over Alvin Hines; Keiichiro Nakamura 70% over Ollie Schmid; and Nina Milošević 72% over Priscila Cachoeira, the widest lean on the card. Every bout has its own fight page with a full stylistic breakdown, round-by-round projections and the model's fair price for both sides.
Main Event — Welterweight
01Bonfim vs. Brady
No. 6 Brady banks 131 seconds of control per round to Bonfim's 38; No. 5 Bonfim owns the division's best striking defense (64%) and a 50-45 sweep of Belal Muhammad. Model lean Brady 55% (conviction 4/10).
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Women's Strawweight
02Jandiroba vs. Suarez
No. 2 Suarez has ridden Amanda Lemos and choked out Loopy Godinez since her only loss; No. 3 Jandiroba stops 73% of takedowns and has never been finished in 27 fights. Model lean Suarez 62% (conviction 5/10).
Full breakdown
Main Card — Middleweight
03Kondratavičius vs. Schultz
Kondratavičius (9-1) dropped Antonio Trócoli with a clinch elbow on the way to a debut decision; Schultz (9-4) is 1-2 in the UFC, his lone win a third-round guillotine. Model lean Kondratavičius 70% (conviction 5/10).
Full breakdown
Main Card — Women's Flyweight
04Silva vs. Fernandes
No. 11 Silva (19-7) has the division's highest submission-attempt rate and opened her UFC run with three first-round submissions; No. 15 Fernandes (11-4) is a southpaw volume striker who has never been submitted. Model lean Silva 54% (conviction 5/10).
Full breakdown
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady is a UFC Vegas Fight Night on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, with thirteen bouts on the card. The five-round welterweight main event pits No. 5 Gabriel "Marretinha" Bonfim (20-1), who entered the UFC 13-0 with every win a stoppage and swept former champion Belal Muhammad 50-45 on all three cards in June, against No. 6 Sean Brady (19-2), the wrestler who guillotined Leon Edwards in Round 4 of a five-round main event. Brady controls 131 seconds per round to Bonfim's 38 and has been taken down just twice in eleven UFC fights. The three-round co-main is No. 3 Virna Jandiroba vs. No. 2 Tatiana Suarez at women's strawweight. Also on the card: Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Wes Schultz (middleweight), Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes (women's flyweight), Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (bantamweight), José Souza vs. Jonny Parsons (welterweight), José Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (featherweight), Seok Hyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman (welterweight), Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan (featherweight), Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando (light heavyweight), Alvin Hines vs. Gabriel Lorenço (heavyweight), Ollie Schmid vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (featherweight) and Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević (women's bantamweight). MMA Analytics leans Brady 55% / Bonfim 45%. The card streams on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT local).
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady streams live from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, November 7, 2026, with the main card beginning at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Local Las Vegas time is 2:00 PM PT — a standard US Saturday afternoon window for a studio-style APEX event. Because this card lands after the US clocks fall back, the United Kingdom and Ireland tune in at 10:00 PM GMT, Central Europe at 11:00 PM CET, and Abu Dhabi at 2:00 AM Gulf Standard Time on Sunday morning. Prelims begin roughly two hours before the main card, around 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT, also on Paramount+. All listed times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes; our timezone grid covers ET, PT, GMT, CET, and GST at a glance.
The welterweight main event is No. 5 Gabriel Bonfim (20-1) vs. No. 6 Sean Brady (19-2). The co-main is No. 3 Virna Jandiroba (23-4) vs. No. 2 Tatiana Suarez (12-1) at women's strawweight. Also on the main card: Mantas Kondratavičius (9-1) vs. Wes Schultz (9-4) at middleweight and No. 11 Karine Silva (19-7) vs. No. 15 Gabriella Fernandes (11-4) at women's flyweight. On the prelims: Davey Grant (18-8) vs. Elijah Smith (10-1) at bantamweight; José Souza (9-1) vs. Jonny Parsons (9-3) at welterweight; José Delano (17-3) vs. Murtazali Magomedov (11-0) at featherweight; Seok Hyeon Ko (13-3) vs. Wellington Turman (18-8) at welterweight; Austin Bashi (14-2) vs. Lucas Brennan (11-3) at featherweight; Billy Elekana (10-2) vs. Lucas Fernando (14-3) at light heavyweight; Alvin Hines (7-2) vs. Gabriel Lorenço (8-1) at heavyweight; Ollie Schmid (4-3) vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (8-1) at featherweight; and Priscila Cachoeira (13-9) vs. Nina Milošević (9-1) at women's bantamweight.
MMA Analytics favors Sean Brady at 55% win probability versus Gabriel Bonfim at 45% in the welterweight main event, a fair price of Brady −122 / Bonfim +122. The lean is positional control over 25 minutes: Brady banks 131 seconds of control per round to Bonfim's 38, has stopped 13 of 15 takedown attempts in the UFC (87%), and has already solved a taller, rangier former champion when he guillotined Leon Edwards in Round 4. Bonfim owns the division's best striking defense (64%, first among 54 welterweights), a 50-45 sweep of Belal Muhammad won with zero takedowns landed and a live guillotine behind thirteen career submissions, but all seventeen of his career finishes came in Rounds 1–3, while Brady has two fourth-round stoppages. Conviction is 4/10: Bonfim's takedown defense has never faced a wrestler of Brady's grade, and Brady was stopped in 3:27 by Michael Morales in November 2025.
Beyond the main event, MMA Analytics leans Tatiana Suarez 62% over Virna Jandiroba, Mantas Kondratavičius 70% over Wes Schultz, Karine Silva 54% over Gabriella Fernandes, Elijah Smith 63% over Davey Grant, José Souza 52% over Jonny Parsons, Murtazali Magomedov 58% over José Delano, Seok Hyeon Ko 66% over Wellington Turman, Austin Bashi 60% over Lucas Brennan, Lucas Fernando 60% over Billy Elekana, Gabriel Lorenço 68% over Alvin Hines, Keiichiro Nakamura 70% over Ollie Schmid and Nina Milošević 72% over Priscila Cachoeira. The highest convictions on the card, 6/10, belong to Smith, Ko and Milošević; Souza vs. Parsons is the closest call at 52–48, with a conviction of 2/10. Each fight page carries the model's win split, method breakdown and fair prices for both fighters.
Yes. Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady is official as the five-round welterweight main event at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on November 7, 2026, with Virna Jandiroba vs. Tatiana Suarez as the co-main and eleven more bouts on the same card.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonfim vs Brady🟢 | Gabriel Bonfim | 45% | —— | Sean BradyModel favorite | 55% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapGabriel Bonfim45%——Sean Brady55%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Sean Brady. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Jandiroba vs Suarez🟢 | Virna Jandiroba | 38% | —— | Tatiana SuarezModel favorite | 62% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapVirna Jandiroba38%——Tatiana Suarez62%—— Our read: We favor Tatiana Suarez. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Silva vs Fernandes🟢 | Karine SilvaModel favorite | 54% | —— | Gabriella Fernandes | 46% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapKarine Silva54%——Gabriella Fernandes46%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Karine Silva. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Grant vs Smith🟡 | Davey Grant | 37% | —— | Elijah SmithModel favorite | 63% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapDavey Grant37%——Elijah Smith63%—— Our read: We favor Elijah Smith. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Ko vs Turman🟡 | Seok Hyeon KoModel favorite | 66% | —— | Wellington Turman | 34% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapSeok Hyeon Ko66%——Wellington Turman34%—— Our read: We favor Seok Hyeon Ko. A market price is needed to assess value. |
