December 12, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Paramount+ · 5:00 PM ET · Four announced bouts
Main event
Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes
Lightweight · 5 rounds
How to read these filters
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 4/4 · Analyses available: 4/4
Main Card
Tactical key
The BMF title fight is scheduled for five rounds at lightweight. Oliveira can connect pressure, clinch work and submissions; Lopes can punish an overextended entry and attack the scramble himself. The key is who remains positionally sound after the first threat is defended.
Charles Oliveira
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -150
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.67
Diego Lopes
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +150
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.50
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 4/10
What limits this estimate
- Lopes' historical featherweight statistics are not treated as a lightweight-specific model.
- This is a BMF title booking, not an undisputed lightweight championship claim.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.
Charles Oliveira: Build pressure behind protected striking entries, connect the clinch to stable top or back position and make Lopes defend several phases without receiving a free counter. Let the submission emerge from control rather than forcing it from an exposed position.
Diego Lopes: Punish Oliveira's entry, choose which scrambles to accept and use defensive frames to keep the first exchange from becoming a continuous chase. When an attacking position appears, secure it before committing both hands to the finish.
- Charles Oliveira
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Diego Lopes
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Pavlovich can reach Pereira before Pereira reaches him, but must avoid turning a long attack into a square recovery. Pereira needs to make the larger punching frame reset through timing and lower-body attacks rather than accepting repeated straight exchanges.
Sergei Pavlovich
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -122
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.82
Alex Pereira
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +122
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.22
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 3/10
What limits this estimate
- Pereira's mixed middleweight, light-heavyweight and heavyweight sample is not a heavyweight-only rate comparison.
- The co-main is five rounds as supplied, without adding an unannounced championship claim.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.
Sergei Pavlovich: Use the longer reach to establish the first clean exchange, keep the recovery stance compact and make Pereira work to interrupt the entry. Build pressure without offering a stationary square target after the combination.
Alex Pereira: Disrupt Pavlovich's feet and timing, vary the first threat and counter the recovery rather than repeatedly trading at the end of the longer reach. Preserve space before the opponent can connect the next long attack.
- Sergei Pavlovich
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Alex Pereira
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Moreno's route combines pressure, timing changes and selective wrestling. Johnson needs enough space to maintain his striking rhythm and make Moreno's entries expensive. Their opposite results against Kavanagh are context, not a transitive prediction.
Brandon Moreno
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -138
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.72
Charles Johnson
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +138
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.38
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 4/10
What limits this estimate
- Opposite outcomes against a shared opponent are not converted into a probability or automatic ranking of the fighters.
- Published career averages include different opponents and fight lengths; no round-level superiority is invented.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.
Brandon Moreno: Vary the entry, make Johnson defend the level change and score during the resulting resets. Use wrestling selectively to support clean striking and sustained control when the landing is available.
Charles Johnson: Maintain a recoverable striking rhythm, punish predictable entries and complete the separation after contact. Make Moreno earn each phase change rather than allowing him to interrupt the exchange for free.
- Brandon Moreno
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Charles Johnson
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Nickal's wrestling threat can change when Pyfer is willing to plant and punch. Pyfer needs to punish the entry while preserving the stance to defend it. Nickal must connect the first shot to stable control rather than assume his wrestling résumé completes the sequence.
Joe Pyfer
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -113
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.89
Bo Nickal
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +113
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.13
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 3/10
What limits this estimate
- Wrestling credentials and submission belts are supporting context, not substitutes for observed MMA control sequences.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.
Joe Pyfer: Land behind a stance that can meet the level change, force Nickal to restart after the first shot and keep the fight in exchanges where clean power can accumulate. If taken down, build the escape through position before exploding.
Bo Nickal: Use striking to make Pyfer's stance predictable, connect the shot to a secure landing and keep adding controlled returns when Pyfer stands. Let the wrestling threat create striking opportunities rather than treating the two phases as separate contests.
- Joe Pyfer
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Bo Nickal
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Announced fight card
Brandon Moreno vs. Charles Johnson at flyweight and Joe Pyfer vs. Bo Nickal at middleweight complete the four bouts announced as of October 11, 2026. All four announced bouts now have dedicated pages and extensive qualitative analysis. Further bouts will be added as announced. The card remains subject to change.
Two five-round fights, different questions
Oliveira (37-11) and Lopes (28-8) meet at lightweight for the BMF belt. The matchup invites a close look at their transitions: who can attack without offering a counter or conceding position? The heavyweight co-main pairs Pavlovich (21-3) with Pereira (13-4) over five rounds, making distance management and sustained pace central questions.
Moreno (24-10-2) faces Johnson (20-9) at flyweight; Pyfer (16-3) meets Nickal (9-1) at middleweight. All four fight pages and detailed analyses are published, including numerical editorial probabilities, method breakdowns and counterarguments. These estimates are subjective, not calibrated model outputs.
Methodology
How Our Model Works — In Plain English
No black box. Published probabilities follow the same three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
1. We watch every fight
Recorded UFC performances provide the evidence — strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, damage, pace, and who each fighter has actually faced. No highlight reels, no reputation: just recorded performance.
2. We estimate the matchup
Each analysis weighs styles, cardio, durability and level of competition to describe likely outcomes. The 100-square chart visualizes that probability distribution; the number of squares is not evidence of model accuracy.
3. We compare it to the market
We compare the estimate with sportsbook prices, prioritizing BetOnline. Positive expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available price. Quote age, bookmaker margin and model uncertainty all affect how useful the comparison is.
What the percentages mean
74% next to a fighter means that fighter is estimated to win about 74 out of 100 comparable matchups under the model assumptions. Odds like -425 are the market's price; converting them to an implied percentage lets us compare like-for-like. The 🔴 🟡 🟢 icons tell you how much UFC data we have on each fighter; they do not measure prediction accuracy.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.