Nilson Rojas vs Roque Conceição: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Nilson Rojas — Flyweight fighter

Nilson Rojas

“El Rayo”
9W1L
Body-attack striker
…
VS
Roque Conceição — Flyweight fighter

Roque Conceição

12W3L
Opportunistic finisher
…

Rojas's body attack against Conceição's knockouts and triangles

FlyweightT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas2026-12-12

The fight in 30 seconds

Nilson Rojas 44% / Roque Conceição 56%. Roque Conceição is the editorial selection: he has two finishing routes against one, and his submission threat targets the weakness Rojas showed in his UFC debut.

Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Nilson Rojas

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
44%
Fair odds
+127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.27

Roque Conceição

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
56%
Fair odds
-127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Read the handicapping and counterarguments
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Nilson Rojas (9-1) vs. Roque Conceição (12-3): Flyweight, 3 five-minute rounds on the UFC 335 prelims at T-Mobile Arena. Rojas brings seven knockouts and a body attack, but his UFC debut ended in a second-round knockout against Bilal Hasan. Conceição has eight knockouts, three submissions and a first-round triangle in his latest fight, which gives him a second finishing route in the scrambles.

Nilson Rojas
Attribute
Roque Conceição
9-1
Pro record
12-3
Flyweight
Booked division
Flyweight
125 lb
Booked limit
125 lb
5'5" (65 in)
Height
5'4" (64 in)
—
Reach
67 in
27
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lima, Peru
Hometown
São Félix, Brazil
1
UFC bouts
Debut

Height and reach are in inches, and ages are as of fight night, December 12, 2026. Both fighters fight orthodox and are booked at the 125 lb flyweight limit.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds. With a one-inch height difference and matching stances, the edge comes from who wins the exchange after the first clean shot, not from size.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nilson Rojas portrait

Nilson Rojas

Nilson Rojas

Pro record
9-1
UFC bouts
1
Career KO/TKO wins
7
Career submission wins
0

Rojas turned professional in 2018 and won his first nine fights, seven by knockout or TKO. The finishes came in different ways, from a flying knee in 73 seconds to a one-punch knockout, a body kick followed by punches and ground strikes, and four of them arrived in the first round. He beat Gonzalo Hanampa by unanimous decision in July 2026 and made his UFC debut five weeks later.

That debut in Shanghai ended in a second-round knockout against Bilal Hasan. A body shot hurt Rojas in the first round, and when he was taken down he gave up his back before he could stand. In the second, Hasan landed a straight right as Rojas leaned in. Rojas landed half of his significant strikes and went to the body often, but he absorbed far more than he landed.

Recent results

  • L

    Bilal Hasan

    KO (punch), R2 2:28 · Aug 29, 2026 · UFC Fight Night (Shanghai)

  • W

    Gonzalo Hanampa

    Decision (unanimous) · Jul 22, 2026 · Inka FC 59

  • W

    Wallafy Fernandes

    TKO (body kick and punches), R1 4:30 · Aug 21, 2025 · FFC 94

  • W

    William Rocha

    TKO (ground and pound), R1 4:25 · Jul 21, 2024 · Open Fight Latam 9

  • W

    Adrian Haly

    TKO (punches), R3 4:45 · Aug 26, 2023 · Next Level Fight Club 15

Roque Conceição portrait

Roque Conceição

Roque Conceição

Pro record
12-3
UFC bouts
0
Career KO/TKO wins
8
Career submission wins
3

Conceição is 12-3 with eight knockouts, three submissions and one decision win across fifteen professional fights, including regional flyweight title wins in Ragnarok and Demo Fight. His two decision losses came in 2020 and 2023. His only stoppage loss was a first-round TKO against Imanol Rodriguez on the Contender Series in 2025, and Rodriguez has since gone unbeaten in the UFC.

He rebuilt with a late first-round elbow-and-punches finish of Yamato Fujita in Japan, then returned to the Contender Series in October 2026 and submitted the unbeaten Alexander Chavez with a triangle at 3:37 of the first round after threatening a kimura. He makes his UFC debut on this card, nine weeks after that win.

Recent results

  • W

    Alexander Chavez

    Submission (triangle choke), R1 3:37 · Oct 6, 2026 · Dana White's Contender Series

  • W

    Yamato Fujita

    KO (elbow and punches), R1 4:10 · Mar 30, 2026 · Lemino Shooto Vol. 4

  • L

    Imanol Rodriguez

    TKO (punches), R1 2:12 · Oct 7, 2025 · Dana White's Contender Series

  • W

    Marcéu Pasin

    TKO (punches), R2 3:50 · Mar 23, 2025 · Copa Montanha Fight 11

  • W

    Matias Jara

    Technical submission (kneebar), R2 4:14 · Sep 14, 2024 · Ragnarok MMA 18 (title fight)

03

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Published career statistics

Published profile averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight. The source sample may include Contender Series appearances.

Nilson Rojas: Averages from one UFC bout (7 minutes 28 seconds) through October 2026, not adjusted for opponent.

Roque Conceição: Makes his UFC debut on this card. His two Contender Series bouts lasted under six minutes combined and are covered in his profile rather than averaged here.

Career statistical comparison for Nilson Rojas and Roque Conceição
MetricNilson RojasRoque Conceição
Significant strikes landed / min4.42—
Significant strikes absorbed / min7.1—
Striking accuracy50%—
Striking defence59%—
Takedowns / 15 min0—
Takedown defence——
Submission attempts / 15 min0—
Knockdowns / 15 min0—

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. These are career profile averages, so no division rank is assigned. A dash is not a zero.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Two finishers, one extra route

Both flyweights hunt finishes early, and each has been stopped once by a cleaner boxer. Conceição has the wider toolkit: a Rojas flurry that ends in a scramble can become a back take or a triangle. Rojas flips the fight by keeping it upright, investing in the body and finishing exchanges with his head off the centre line instead of leaning in.

The Deep Read

Rojas's best moments in his debut came when he walked forward behind his hands and dug to the body. That is the weapon most likely to matter here. Conceição was outboxed by Imanol Rodriguez when the exchanges turned into straight-line punching, and a fifth of his Contender Series strikes went to the legs, so he commits his weight to kicks. A sustained body attack slows his entries and makes each kick expensive.

The problem for Rojas is what happens while he walks forward. Bilal Hasan hurt him to the body in the first round and knocked him out with a straight right as he leaned in during the second. Rojas absorbed significant strikes much faster than he landed them, the profile of a fighter who accepts exchanges rather than winning them on angles. Against an opponent with eight knockouts, including an elbow-and-punches finish on the inside, that habit is a direct risk.

Conceição's second route is the scramble. Against Alexander Chavez he threatened a kimura and moved straight into the triangle that ended the fight, and he calls himself a fighter of opportunity. The first time Rojas hit the mat in the UFC, he gave up his back within the same exchange. If Conceição lands a takedown, catches a kick or ends up underneath after a flurry, he has a finish that does not depend on winning the striking.

None of this makes Conceição safe. He has been stopped by punches, he was hit often in his two Contender Series bouts, and Rojas's knockout total is close to his own. If Rojas has corrected the habit of leaning into exchanges and keeps the fight upright, his first-round power and body attack can end this before the grappling question is ever asked.

Path to Victory

Nilson Rojas

Keep the fight upright, attack the body early with kicks and hooks, and finish every exchange with his head off the centre line rather than leaning into the next punch.

Why they win
01
Body attack

Rojas sent 13 of his 33 landed strikes to the body in his debut, and a body kick started one of his regional stoppages. Sustained body work is the cleanest way to slow Conceição's entries and make his kicks expensive.

02
Early knockout power

Seven of his nine wins are knockouts and four came in the first round, including a flying knee in 73 seconds. Conceição was stopped by punches on the Contender Series, so Rojas's power is a live route from the opening bell.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Open with body kicks and a jab to the chest to lower Conceição's guard and slow his entries.

  2. 2
    Position

    Hold his stance after landing instead of chasing a second exchange with his chin forward.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    If the fight hits the mat, control the wrists and stand without turning his back.

Path to Victory

Roque Conceição

Counter Rojas's forward movement down the middle, punish lunges on the inside, and treat every takedown, caught kick or scramble as a chance to take the back or lock up a choke.

Why they win
01
Two finishing routes

Eight knockouts and three submissions with three different techniques: a rear-naked choke, a kneebar and the triangle that finished Alexander Chavez. Rojas has to defend both the counter and the scramble.

02
Deeper record

Fifteen professional fights, three regional title fights and two Contender Series appearances. His only stoppage loss came against Imanol Rodriguez, who has since gone unbeaten in the UFC.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Circle off the body attack and counter straight down the middle when Rojas steps in.

  2. 2
    Position

    Clinch or change levels after Rojas commits to a combination, dragging him into the grappling exchanges he lost in his debut.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    On the mat, attack the back or chain the kimura into the triangle instead of settling for position.

Danger Zone

How Nilson Rojas loses

  • He leans in behind his punches and walks onto a straight counter or an elbow, repeating the finish from his debut.

  • A scramble ends with Conceição on his back or a triangle locked from guard.

Danger Zone

How Roque Conceição loses

  • He stands square and trades in a straight line, absorbing body shots that slow him down and opening the counter that Rodriguez found.

  • He hunts a submission from his back, loses position and spends the round under Rojas's ground strikes.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 1: the first scramble

Both fighters do most of their finishing early, so the opening round carries a large share of the stoppage risk. Watch whether Rojas lands to the body without leaning his head over his lead foot, and how he handles the first takedown or scramble. If he gives up his back again, Conceição's submission route opens immediately.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 2: body work against counters

If the first round went to the body, this is where Rojas's knockout lives: a slowed opponent is the kind he has finished on the regional circuit. It is also the round in which Conceição has finished half of his wins, and a fighter pressing from behind becomes easier to counter and to catch in transitions.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 3: experience and urgency

A third round favours Conceição's experience, with three full-distance fights and two second-round title-fight finishes on his record, while Rojas has never gone past seven and a half minutes against UFC opposition. A Rojas who needs a finish will throw in volume, which is when Conceição's opportunism is most dangerous.

05

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Nilson Rojas 44% · Roque Conceição 56%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Conceição is estimated at 56% because he matches Rojas's knockout threat and adds a submission route. His eight knockouts and three submissions came across fifteen professional fights, and the triangle that finished Alexander Chavez targets the scramble that went wrong for Rojas in his UFC debut.

Rojas keeps 44% through knockout power and a body attack. Seven of his nine wins are stoppages, he went to the body often in his debut, and Conceição was stopped by punches the one time he faced a cleaner boxer on the Contender Series.

The assessment is for 3 five-minute rounds at 125 lb. The six outcomes are mutually exclusive allocations conditional on a decisive result; draws and no-contests are not separately priced. Combined inside-the-distance probability is 70% and decision probability is 30%.

Conceição drops toward 48% if Rojas's body attack holds him in place and Rojas has stopped leaning into exchanges; he rises toward 62% if the first scramble again ends with Rojas defending his back. Scenario range for Roque Conceição: 48–62%; the complementary range for Nilson Rojas is 38–52%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

If you only read 2 things
1

Nilson Rojas 44% / Roque Conceição 56%. Roque Conceição is the editorial selection: he has two finishing routes against one, and his submission threat targets the weakness Rojas showed in his UFC debut.

2

Conceição drops toward 48% if Rojas's body attack holds him in place and Rojas has stopped leaning into exchanges; he rises toward 62% if the first scramble again ends with Rojas defending his back.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Nilson Rojas · KO/TKO — 28%Nilson Rojas · Decision — 14%Nilson Rojas · Submission — 2%Roque Conceição · KO/TKO — 30%Roque Conceição · Decision — 16%Roque Conceição · Submission — 10%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Nilson Rojas gold · Roque Conceição orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Nilson Rojas win probability
0%
28%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Seven knockout wins, four in the first round, and a body attack aimed at an opponent who was stopped by punches on the Contender Series.

  • Steady body work can win rounds if neither man is hurt, but his debut showed him absorbing more than he landed.

  • No professional submission wins, so a choke is limited to a scramble accident.

Roque Conceição win probability
0%
30%
16%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight knockouts, including an elbow-and-punches finish, against an opponent who was knocked out leaning into an exchange.

  • Fifteen professional fights and three full-distance bouts give him the deeper experience over three rounds of contested striking.

  • Three submissions with three different techniques, a triangle in his latest fight, and an opponent who gave up his back in his only UFC scramble.

Editorial estimate vs market

Nilson Rojas

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
44%
Fair odds
+127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Roque Conceição

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
56%
Fair odds
-127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Nilson Rojas

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Roque Conceição

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the win probability. Lean: Roque Conceição.

What backs the lean

  • Both flyweights hunt finishes early, and each has been stopped once by a cleaner boxer. Conceição has the wider toolkit: a Rojas flurry that ends in a scramble can become a back take or a triangle. Rojas flips the fight by keeping it upright, investing in the body and finishing exchanges with his head off the centre line instead of leaning in.

  • Conceição is estimated at 56% because he matches Rojas's knockout threat and adds a submission route. His eight knockouts and three submissions came across fifteen professional fights, and the triangle that finished Alexander Chavez targets the scramble that went wrong for Rojas in his UFC debut.

What limits it

  • Rojas's UFC statistics come from one fight against a fast, kick-heavy opponent.

  • Conceição makes his UFC debut, and the two regional records share no common opponents.

  • These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.

Final Assessment

Nilson Rojas 44% / Roque Conceição 56%. Roque Conceição is the editorial selection: he has two finishing routes against one, and his submission threat targets the weakness Rojas showed in his UFC debut.

Conceição drops toward 48% if Rojas's body attack holds him in place and Rojas has stopped leaning into exchanges; he rises toward 62% if the first scramble again ends with Rojas defending his back.

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