Chris Padilla vs Chase Hooper: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Chris Padilla — Lightweight fighter

Chris Padilla

“Taco”
18W6L1D
VS
Chase Hooper — Lightweight fighter

Chase Hooper

“The Dream”
17W5L1D
Southpaw

Hooper needs the back; Padilla's published takedown defense is the thing in the way.

LightweightT-Mobile ArenaDecember 12, 2026

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Hooper needs the back; Padilla's published takedown defense is the thing in the way.

Paths that change the fight

  • Chris PadillaKeep Hooper off the back. The lean is the published 83% takedown defence plus the current win over Haqparast, not a claim that the submission game across the cage is gone.
  • Chase HooperGet the back the way he did against Ramirez, rear-naked choke at 2:15 of round 1. That is the case that moves Padilla toward 47%, and it is why Hooper's largest method share is the 22% submission.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • If Hooper gets the back the way he did against Ramirez, Padilla falls toward 47%. The submission share is still 22, his largest slice.
  • Hooper's 1/67 takedown line was rejected, Padilla's age differs between UFC.com (30) and Tapology (near 31), and an older reach of 75 was set aside for 74. The profiles are not opponent-adjusted.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Chris Padilla

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.75

Chase Hooper

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Editorial analysis reviewed October 18, 2026. Rates are the UFC.com athlete pages for Chris Padilla and Chase Hooper. ESPN ids 3163772 and 4354421 were reviewed the same day. The ESPN history page printed Hooper at 16-5-1 and omitted Ramirez; this page does not. Hooper takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because the page's 1 landed / 67 attempted line contradicts the 2.50 per-15-minute average and was rejected. An older site file listed Hooper's reach at 75; the figure used is 74. Padilla is 30 on UFC.com; Tapology had him near 31. No gym was supplied for Padilla. Subjective numerical handicap published. No calibrated-model claim. No market quote.

Model methodology
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Chris Padilla (18-6-1), "Taco," meets Chase Hooper (17-5-1), "The Dream," at lightweight for three rounds at T-Mobile Arena. The lean is Padilla's 83% takedown defense against Hooper's grappling, plus Padilla's current win, not a claim Hooper's submission game is gone. Hooper's card record stays the UFC.com 17-5-1, which includes the rear-naked choke of Mitch Ramirez.

Chris Padilla
Attribute
Chase Hooper
18-6-1
Record
17-5-1
30 (UFC.com; Tapology near 31)
Age
26
69"
Height
+4"73"
74"
Reach
74" (older file 75)
Not supplied
Leg Reach
Not supplied
Not supplied
Stance
Southpaw
Not supplied
Team
Combat Sport and Fitness
Not supplied
Octagon Debut
Not supplied
Not supplied
Fighting Style
Not supplied
#20 lightweight
Tapology rank
#53 lightweight

Height and reach are inches from the reviewed profiles. Age is the source snapshot, not a fight-night age. UFC.com lists Padilla at 30; Tapology had him near 31. Both reaches are 74 on the current UFC.com pages. An older site file had Hooper at 75, and that figure is not used. No gym was supplied for Padilla. Hooper's team is the ESPN listing, Combat Sport and Fitness. The booked limit is 155 lb. Past weigh-ins were not supplied and do not change the booking. Tapology's #20 and #53 are listing ranks, not official UFC rankings.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds on the UFC 335 preliminary card at T-Mobile Arena. No cage dimension was supplied. The round notes below are tactical questions. No observed round chart was published.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Chris Padilla, UFC lightweight, headshot

Chris Padilla

Pro Record
18-6-1
UFC Record
Not published separately
Streak
Won last (Haqparast)
Finish Rate
15 of 18 wins (9 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
Avg Fight Time
Not published
Chin · UnpublishedSOS · Not gradedNo style label supplied

Padilla enters at 18-6-1. The reviewed win methods are 9 KO/TKO, 6 submissions and 3 decisions. The current result is an arm-triangle of Nasrat Haqparast at 4:59 of round 3 on August 22, 2026, after a majority draw with Manuel Mederos. Before that: a round-2 KO/TKO of Ismael Bonfim, a split decision over Jai Herbert, and a doctor stoppage / TKO of Rongzhu. The rates that drive the lean are 83% takedown defence, 6.67 significant strikes per minute and 54% accuracy. His own takedown accuracy is 18% (3 of 17). No knockdown total, average fight time, stance or gym was supplied.

Chase Hooper, UFC lightweight, headshot

Chase Hooper

Pro Record
17-5-1
UFC Record
Not published separately
Streak
Won last (Ramirez)
Finish Rate
13 of 17 wins (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
Avg Fight Time
Not published
Chin · UnpublishedSOS · Not gradedSouthpaw

Hooper is 26, a southpaw, 73 inches tall, and listed at 74 inches of reach. An older site file had the reach at 75. He trains at Combat Sport and Fitness on the ESPN team listing. UFC.com's 17-5-1 includes a rear-naked choke of Mitch Ramirez at 2:15 of round 1 on July 18, 2026, and that win is kept. ESPN id 4354421 printed 16-5-1 the same day, starting at the Lance Gibson Jr. loss, with 4 KO/TKO wins and 8 submissions. The methods that match 17 wins are 4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions and 4 decisions. The ninth submission is Ramirez. After that win the reviewed results are first-round KO/TKO losses to Gibson and Alexander Hernandez, a decision over Jim Miller, and a round-1 submission of Clay Guida. Takedown accuracy is withheld: 1 landed / 67 attempted contradicts 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Chris Padilla
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Chase Hooper
— dealt · — absorbed

Chris Padillasignature weapons

Arm-triangleOne identified recent finish: Nasrat Haqparast, R3 4:59, August 22, 2026. Career submission wins are 6. Other holds were not named.
×1

Chase Hoopersignature weapons

Rear-naked chokeMitch Ramirez, R1 2:15, July 18, 2026. This is the ninth career submission. ESPN's 16-5-1 page counted 8 because it omitted Ramirez.
×1

Chris Padilla

W
Nasrat Haqparast
Submission — arm-triangle
R3 (4:59)
Aug 22, 2026 — event name not supplied
D
Manuel Mederos
Majority draw
Round not supplied
Apr 11, 2026 — event name not supplied
W
Ismael Bonfim
KO/TKO
R2
Nov 8, 2025 — event name not supplied
W
Jai Herbert
Split decision
Round not supplied
Mar 22, 2025 — event name not supplied
W
Rongzhu
Doctor stoppage / TKO
Round not supplied
Sep 7, 2024 — event name not supplied
Pattern

The current result is a win, an arm-triangle at the end of round 3, after a majority draw with Mederos. The five-fight window also holds a round-2 KO/TKO, a split decision and a doctor stoppage. Event names were not in the reviewed brief. This is not a round-rate chart.

Chase Hooper

W
Mitch Ramirez
Submission — rear-naked choke
R1 (2:15)
Jul 18, 2026 — event name not supplied
L
Lance Gibson Jr.
KO/TKO
R1 (2:56)
Mar 28, 2026 — event name not supplied
L
Alexander Hernandez
KO/TKO
R1 (4:58)
Aug 16, 2025 — event name not supplied
W
Jim Miller
Decision
Round not supplied
Apr 12, 2025 — event name not supplied
W
Clay Guida
Submission
R1 (3:41)
Dec 7, 2024 — event name not supplied
Pattern

The current result is the Ramirez rear-naked choke, and it stays on the record. ESPN's history page omitted it and printed 16-5-1. The two results before Ramirez were first-round KO/TKO losses to Gibson and Hernandez. Miller was a decision and Guida a round-1 submission. No shared opponent with Padilla was supplied.

Chris Padilla

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Chase Hooper

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Career counts, not the forecast: Padilla 9 KO/TKO, 6 submissions and 3 decisions (18). Hooper 4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions and 4 decisions (17). Donut slices are those counts as a share of wins (Padilla 50 / 16.7 / 33.3; Hooper 23.5 / 23.5 / 53). The ninth Hooper submission is Ramirez. ESPN's 16-5-1 split was 4 KO/TKO and 8 submissions. Round-of-finish bars stay at 0 because no observed round chart was published. A zero is not a claim of zero wins in that round. Decision wins are known as totals and are still not placed on a round chart.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorChrisChase
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Not graded — Tapology lists Padilla at #20 lightweight. That is a listing rank, not a strength-of-schedule grade. No elite or veteran tier was assigned to the recent opponents, so a zero in that row means the tier was not published.Not graded — Tapology lists Hooper at #53 lightweight. That is a listing rank, not a strength-of-schedule grade. The card record is UFC.com 17-5-1, including the Ramirez win. ESPN's same-day history page printed 16-5-1 and omitted it.
UFC sampleNot published separatelyNot published separately
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsNasrat Haqparast, Manuel Mederos, Ismael BonfimMitch Ramirez, Lance Gibson Jr., Alexander Hernandez
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Not applied

0
Chris
0
Chase

No striking composite was published. The gauge stays at 0. The rates themselves are 6.67 SLpM at 54% accuracy against 4.44 at 49%.

Grappling

Not applied

0
Chris
0
Chase

No grappling composite was published. Hooper's takedown accuracy was rejected, so a formula that needs it is not run. The usable figures are Padilla's 83% takedown defence and Hooper's 2.50 takedowns and 2.16 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Technical

Not applied

0
Chris
0
Chase

No technical score was published. A zero is an empty gauge, not equal skill.

Cardio

Not applied

0
Chris
0
Chase

Average fight time and round-by-round output were not published, so no cardio score is calculated.

Overall

Not applied

0
Chris
0
Chase

The editorial split is 57/43 in the verdict. It is not a composite of these empty gauges.

MetricChrisChase
Avg Fight TimeNot publishedNot published
SLpM6.674.44
R3/R1 OutputNot publishedNot published
Slow Start %Not publishedNot published
Champ Rounds3-round bout3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

No sample 50%50% No sample

No archetype sample was published · The even bar is a blank display. It is not a measured 50-50 base rate, and the side marker is not the selection. The selection is the 57/43 editorial handicap.

Chris PadillaChase Hooper

Lightweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatChrisChase
SLpM6.674.44
Str Acc54% (455/836)49% (586/1185)
Str Def51%40%
SApM4.852.97
KD AvgNot publishedNot published
Damage RatioNot publishedNot published
TD/151.102.50
TDAcc18% (3/17)Withheld — 1/67 rejected
TD Def83%55%
Sub/150.442.16
Avg Fight TimeNot publishedNot published
Statistical Verdict
No division cohort was published, so these rows are the UFC.com rates and nothing else. Padilla's edge on the page is 83% takedown defence, 6.67 SLpM and 54% accuracy. Hooper's edge on the page is 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, 2.16 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and 2.97 strikes absorbed. His takedown accuracy is withheld. Knockdowns, damage ratio and average fight time were not published and are not filled with zeros in this table.

Chris Padilla

  • No observed round chart was published. Per-round strike counts, target splits, knockdown totals and average fight time stay at 0 with a sample size of 0. Those zeros are empty fields, not measured output.
  • The recent Haqparast win was an arm-triangle at 4:59 of round 3. That is one result, not a round-rate.
  • Bonfim was a KO/TKO in round 2. The time was not supplied. This bout is scheduled for three rounds, so R4 and R5 are not on the card.

Chase Hooper

  • No observed round chart was published. Per-round strike counts, target splits, knockdown totals and average fight time stay at 0 with a sample size of 0. Those zeros are empty fields, not measured output.
  • Ramirez was a rear-naked choke at 2:15 of round 1 on July 18, 2026. The ESPN history page omitted that win. It is kept here.
  • Gibson (R1 2:56) and Hernandez (R1 4:58) were KO/TKO losses. They are results, not a knockdown total.
Critical Insight
No observed round chart was published. Per-round strike counts, target splits, knockdown totals and average fight time stay at 0 with a sample size of 0. Those zeros are empty fields, not measured output.
04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceEven

Published reach is 74 inches for both. Hooper is four inches taller and a southpaw. The older 75-inch reach is not used. No distance-strike split was published, so this phase is not scored as owned.

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Padilla's published pace is 6.67 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy, and he absorbs 4.85. The 66% sensitivity is this phase if takedown defence holds. The confidence bar is not that percentage. No target split was published.

ClinchEven

No clinch time or clinch striking split was published. The phase is left even rather than assigned.

GroundEven

Hooper's route is the back, as against Ramirez. Padilla's published takedown defence is 83%, and his own takedown accuracy is 18% (3 of 17). No control-time chart was published, so the phase is not scored as owned. The 47% case is the back changing hands.

The Deep Read

The lean is Padilla's 83% takedown defense against Hooper's grappling, plus Padilla's current win, not a claim Hooper's submission game is gone. The current win is the arm-triangle of Nasrat Haqparast at 4:59 of round 3. Hooper's current win is the one a same-day ESPN history page left off the record: a rear-naked choke of Mitch Ramirez at 2:15 of round 1. UFC.com lists Hooper at 17-5-1. ESPN id 4354421 printed 16-5-1 and began with Lance Gibson Jr. This page uses 17-5-1 and keeps Ramirez. The ninth career submission is that choke. ESPN's shorter split was 4 KO/TKO and 8 submissions.

What Hooper can take into the cage without a usable takedown percentage is the attempt rate, 2.50 per 15 minutes, and the submission-attempt rate, 2.16. The line that says 1 landed of 67 attempted contradicts the average, so it is not used. A 0 in the takedown-accuracy field is that rejection. Padilla's wrestling line is the mirror problem: 1.10 attempts per 15 minutes, 3 of 17 completed, and 83% of opponents' attempts listed as stuffed. If his own shots are the ones that hit the mat, they have usually missed. A miss is a scramble, and the scramble is where the Ramirez finish lived.

The other fight is the pocket. Padilla lands 6.67 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy, 455 of 836, with 51% striking defence, and he absorbs 4.85. Hooper lands 4.44 at 49%, 586 of 1,185, defends at 40%, and absorbs 2.97. The lower absorption is on the page, and so is the thinner defence. Both men are listed at 74 inches of reach. Hooper is four inches taller and a southpaw. An older site file had his reach at 75. Age on the snapshots used here is 30 and 26, with Tapology's near-31 note left on Padilla rather than treated as a second official age. No gym was supplied for Padilla. Hooper's ESPN team listing is Combat Sport and Fitness.

Three rounds put the two recent finishes at opposite ends of a short night. Ramirez was over in the first round. Haqparast lasted until the last second of the third, and the finish was a submission after the defence had kept the fight available. Gibson and Hernandez also ended Hooper's nights in round 1, by KO/TKO. Those names are not a power ranking against Padilla, and no shared opponent was supplied to make one. Tapology's #20 and #53 are listing ranks, not that bridge. Padilla's own window includes a majority draw with Manuel Mederos and a split decision over Jai Herbert, so the 9-6-3 career mix has not been a finish every time. If the back changes hands the way it did against Ramirez, Padilla falls toward 47%. If the takedown defence keeps the fight in the pocket where he finished Haqparast, he rises toward 66%. Hooper's complementary range is 34–53%.

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes event poster
UFC 335 event poster. No fight-night photo of this pairing was part of the reviewed brief.
Path to Victory

Chris Padilla

Keep Hooper off the back. The lean is the published 83% takedown defence plus the current win over Haqparast, not a claim that the submission game across the cage is gone.

Why they win
01
83% takedown defence

The published defence is the obstacle in front of Hooper's grappling. The lean uses it with Padilla's current win. It does not delete nine Hooper submission wins or a 2.16 submission-attempt rate.

02
Current win

Nasrat Haqparast, arm-triangle, round 3 at 4:59, August 22, 2026. The sensitivity that lifts Padilla toward 66% is the takedown defence keeping the fight in the pocket where that finish happened.

03
Published striking pace

6.67 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy, 455 of 836. Striking defence is 51%. He also absorbs 4.85 per minute, so the volume is not a claim that he is hard to hit.

04
Low incentive to wrestle first

1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes at 18% accuracy, 3 of 17. His path is not a copy of Hooper's attempt rate. A missed shot is a scramble the other man has finished.

05
Listing rank is context

Tapology has him at #20 lightweight and Hooper at #53. Those are listing ranks. They are not the handicap and they are not a shared-opponent bridge.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Defend the first level change

    The published 83% takedown defence is the figure that has to survive contact. Hooper's usable wrestling number is 2.50 attempts per 15 minutes, not the rejected 1/67.

  2. 2
    Keep the back

    Ramirez was over at 2:15 of round 1 from a rear-naked choke. Giving up that position is the 47% case.

  3. 3
    Work the pocket

    6.67 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy is the published striking case. If the defence keeps the fight there, the sensitivity rises toward 66%.

  4. 4
    Leave his own shots scarce

    Takedown accuracy is 18%, 3 of 17, at 1.10 per 15 minutes. A miss feeds the scramble Hooper wants.

  5. 5
    Use all three rounds

    Haqparast went to 4:59 of round 3. There is no fourth round on this card. A blank opening round is not priced as something a later adjustment erases.

Path to Victory

Chase Hooper

Get the back the way he did against Ramirez, rear-naked choke at 2:15 of round 1. That is the case that moves Padilla toward 47%, and it is why Hooper's largest method share is the 22% submission.

Why they win
01
The back is a recent finish

Rear-naked choke of Mitch Ramirez, round 1 at 2:15, July 18, 2026. UFC.com counts it. The record used here is 17-5-1. ESPN's same-day history page did not.

02
Submission volume

Nine submission wins, the ninth being Ramirez, and 2.16 submission attempts per 15 minutes. ESPN's 16-5-1 split stopped at 8 submissions. The forecast gives this route 22 points, his largest share.

03
Takedown attempt rate

2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes is the figure that can be used. The 1 landed / 67 attempted line contradicts it and is not used. Stored takedown accuracy 0 means rejected, not observed zero.

04
Southpaw and height

He is 73 inches to Padilla's 69, a southpaw, at the same published 74-inch reach. The older 75-inch reach is noted and unused. Lower absorption, 2.97 against 4.85, is also on the page, next to 40% striking defence.

05
A decision win exists

Jim Miller was a decision on April 12, 2025. Four of 17 wins are decisions. That route is real and smaller here than the submission share.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Hunt the back early

    The Ramirez choke arrived at 2:15 of round 1. A three-round fight that reaches 4:59 of round 3 is the Haqparast script, which belongs to Padilla.

  2. 2
    Quote the attempt rate

    2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes can be said. 1 of 67 cannot. The stored 0 is the rejection of that fraction.

  3. 3
    Enter as the southpaw

    Four inches of height, equal 74-inch reach. The older file's 75 is not the measurement this read uses.

  4. 4
    Keep the submission attempt alive

    2.16 attempts per 15 minutes and nine submission wins are why 22% is his largest method share. The lean toward Padilla does not zero that path.

  5. 5
    Price a failed entry

    Gibson at 2:56 of round 1 and Hernandez at 4:58 of round 1 were KO/TKO losses. The first shot has recently been expensive when the back was not there.

Danger Zone

How Chris Padilla loses

  • Hooper takes the back the way he did against Ramirez. Padilla's win chance in that case falls toward 47%.

  • A 3-of-17 takedown creates the scramble instead of the 83% defence.

  • The four-inch height gap and the southpaw stance make the pocket harder than the Haqparast fight, and 4.85 absorbed shows up before 6.67 landed does.

Danger Zone

How Chase Hooper loses

  • Padilla's takedown defence keeps the fight in the pocket and the higher pace and accuracy score the rounds. That is the case that lifts Padilla toward 66%.

  • 40% striking defence and 55% takedown defence are the numbers being scored on for three rounds.

  • The first entry is punished before the back is there. Gibson and Hernandez already finished him in round 1. That is not a claim that Padilla is either man.

Published takedown defence against a live submission game

The defence in the way

Padilla is listed at 83% takedown defence. Hooper is listed at 2.50 takedowns and 2.16 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with nine submission wins. The lean uses the defence and Padilla's current win. It leaves Hooper's largest forecast share on the submission.

83%
Padilla takedown defence
17-5-1, with the ESPN page stated

The record that has to stay whole

UFC.com includes the Ramirez rear-naked choke and lists 17-5-1. ESPN's history page, id 4354421, reviewed the same day, printed 16-5-1, started at the Gibson loss, and counted 8 submissions. The ninth submission is Ramirez. Dropping it would shorten both the record and the submission count.

17-5-1
UFC.com record used
Takedown accuracy is not 1 of 67

The fraction that was rejected

Hooper's UFC.com takedown line of 1 landed / 67 attempted contradicts 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. It is not used. The fight object's takedown accuracy is 0 because that fraction was rejected, not because a complete-zero sample was observed. Padilla's takedown accuracy is the one that was published cleanly: 18%, 3 of 17.

0
Hooper TDAcc stored after rejection
Nothing in the brief connects the two ledgers

No shared opponent

Haqparast, Mederos, Bonfim, Herbert, Rongzhu, Ramirez, Gibson, Hernandez, Miller and Guida are separate results. No shared opponent is invented from them. Tapology's lightweight listing ranks, #20 and #53, are not a substitute.

Zeros are empty fields

No observed round chart

Per-round strike counts, target splits, knockdown totals and average fight time were not published. Chart fields that require them stay at 0 with sample size 0. Career method counts are known. Which round those career wins happened in is not, so the round-of-finish bars stay at 0 as well.

The Five-Round Clock

Chris Padilla danger windowChase Hooper danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Where Hooper's recent nights have ended

Ramirez was a rear-naked choke at 2:15. Gibson and Hernandez were KO/TKO losses at 2:56 and 4:58. The first round is where his clearest recent finish and his two clearest recent losses both sit. That is a watch window, not a scored round.

Critical Insight
Padilla falls toward 47% if Hooper gets the back the way he did against Ramirez. He rises toward 66% if the takedown defence keeps the fight in the pocket where he just finished Haqparast. Hooper's complementary range is 34–53%. No observed round chart was published, and the finish-by-round curve below is held at 0 for that reason.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

The editorial allocation, the fair prices, and the conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Hooper needs the back; Padilla's published takedown defense is the thing in the way. The lean is that 83% defence plus Padilla's current win, and it is not a claim that Hooper's submission game is gone.

2

Editorial split: Chris Padilla 57% (KO/TKO 20, submission 16, decision 21) and Chase Hooper 43% (KO/TKO 8, submission 22, decision 13). Fair prices are decimal 1.75 / 2.33 and American -133 / +133. No market quote.

3

Hooper's record stays 17-5-1 from UFC.com, including the Ramirez rear-naked choke. ESPN id 4354421 printed 16-5-1 the same day and omitted that win. His takedown accuracy is withheld because 1/67 contradicts 2.50 per 15 minutes.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Chris Padilla · Decision — 21%Chris Padilla · Submission — 16%Chris Padilla · KO/TKO — 20%Chase Hooper · KO/TKO — 8%Chase Hooper · Decision — 13%Chase Hooper · Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Chris Padilla gold · Chase Hooper orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

83% takedown defence

The lean is this number against Hooper's grappling, together with Padilla's current win over Haqparast. Hooper still has 2.50 takedown attempts and 2.16 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

The Ramirez win stays

UFC.com 17-5-1 includes the rear-naked choke at 2:15 of round 1 on July 18, 2026. ESPN's history page printed 16-5-1 the same day and omitted it. The methods that match 17 wins are 4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions and 4 decisions.

Rejected takedown accuracy

1 landed / 67 attempted is not used. It contradicts 2.50 per 15 minutes. Padilla's 18% (3 of 17) is the takedown accuracy that was published without that contradiction.

The two sensitivity cases

Padilla falls toward 47% if Hooper gets the back the way he did against Ramirez, and rises toward 66% if the defence keeps the fight in the pocket where Haqparast was finished. Hooper's complementary range is 34–53%.

What was not published

No shared opponent, no Padilla gym, no knockdown total, no average fight time, no target split, no per-round strike chart, and no market quote. Conviction is 4/10 because of that evidence, not because 57 is close to 50.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The published lean

Padilla at 57, split KO/TKO 20, submission 16 and decision 21. The reason is 83% takedown defence plus the Haqparast win. The decision share is the largest of his three because rounds can be won if the back stays off Hooper. His career mix is still 9 KO/TKO, 6 submissions and 3 decisions. The forecast is not a copy of that mix.

Scripted outcomes for Chris Padilla vs Chase Hooper — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Chris Padilla win probability
0%
20%
21%
16%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Nine career KO/TKO wins, including Bonfim in round 2 and the Rongzhu doctor stoppage, plus the higher published pace and accuracy, are the pocket stoppage route.

  • The largest Padilla share is three rounds won if 83% takedown defence keeps Hooper off the back. The Herbert split decision is a recent decision win, not the whole argument.

  • Six career submissions and the Haqparast arm-triangle are a real route. It is smaller here than the decision and KO/TKO shares.

Chase Hooper win probability
0%
8%
13%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Four career KO/TKO wins are his smallest share. The recent Gibson and Hernandez results were first-round knockouts the other way.

  • The Miller decision shows a scoring win exists. It is smaller than the submission share, next to 40% striking defence and 55% takedown defence.

  • Nine submission wins, 2.16 attempts per 15 minutes, and the Ramirez rear-naked choke. This is the route the lean refuses to delete. ESPN counted 8 submissions because it omitted Ramirez.

Model and price

Chris Padilla: -133 fair · Chase Hooper: +133 fair

Decimal 1.75 and 2.33. These are the arithmetic break-even prices of the editorial 57/43 split. No sportsbook price was reviewed on October 18, 2026. They are not a market quote and not a betting recommendation.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No market quote was reviewed, so no value edge is asserted. The -133 / +133 pair is the fair American price of 57% and 43%, matching decimal 1.75 / 2.33. There is no prop market in this brief.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the win probability. The record split, the rejected takedown fraction, the unused 75-inch reach, the age note, the missing round chart and the absence of a market quote sit inside this 4. They do not move the central 57/43. Lean: Chris Padilla.

What backs the lean
  • The lean is Padilla's 83% takedown defense against Hooper's grappling, plus Padilla's current win, not a claim Hooper's submission game is gone.

  • Hooper needs the back; Padilla's published takedown defense is the thing in the way. The pocket case, 6.67 SLpM at 54% accuracy, is what lifts Padilla toward 66% if that defence holds.

  • The card uses UFC.com's 17-5-1, including Ramirez, so the submission count is nine rather than the eight on the ESPN history page.

What limits it
  • If Hooper gets the back the way he did against Ramirez, Padilla falls toward 47%. The submission share is still 22, his largest slice.

  • Hooper's 1/67 takedown line was rejected, Padilla's age differs between UFC.com (30) and Tapology (near 31), and an older reach of 75 was set aside for 74. The profiles are not opponent-adjusted.

  • No observed round chart, knockdown total, average fight time, shared opponent or market quote was published. These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration.

Final Assessment

Chris Padilla 57% / Chase Hooper 43%. Chris Padilla is the editorial selection. The lean is Padilla's 83% takedown defense against Hooper's grappling, plus Padilla's current win, not a claim Hooper's submission game is gone. Method shares are Padilla KO/TKO 20, submission 16, decision 21, and Hooper KO/TKO 8, submission 22, decision 13.

Padilla falls toward 47% if Hooper gets the back the way he did against Ramirez; he rises toward 66% if the takedown defense keeps it in the pocket where Padilla just finished Haqparast. The complementary range for Chase Hooper is 34–53%. Fair prices are decimal 1.75 / 2.33 and American -133 / +133. No market quote was reviewed. Conviction is 4/10.

Hooper's record stays 17-5-1 from the UFC.com athlete page, including the rear-naked choke of Mitch Ramirez at 2:15 of round 1 on July 18, 2026. An ESPN history page, id 4354421, reviewed the same day printed 16-5-1 and omitted that win. His takedown accuracy is not taken from 1 landed / 67 attempted, because that line contradicts 2.50 per 15 minutes. No calibrated model is claimed.

Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.