December 12, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Paramount+ · 5:00 PM ET · Six active bouts
Main event
Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes
Lightweight · 5 rounds
How to read these filters
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 7/7 · Analyses available: 4/7
Main Card
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Uncertainty & price details
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Charles Oliveira
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- —
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- —
- Edge vs no-vig market
- —
Diego Lopes
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- —
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- —
- Edge vs no-vig market
- —
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Uncertainty & price details
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Sergei Pavlovich
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- —
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- —
- Edge vs no-vig market
- —
Alex Pereira
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- —
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- —
- Edge vs no-vig market
- —
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Moreno's route combines pressure, timing changes and selective wrestling. Johnson needs enough space to maintain his striking rhythm and make Moreno's entries expensive. Their opposite results against Kavanagh are context, not a transitive prediction.
Brandon Moreno
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -138
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.72
Charles Johnson
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +138
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.38
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 4/10
What limits this estimate
- Opposite outcomes against a shared opponent are not converted into a probability or automatic ranking of the fighters.
- Published career averages include different opponents and fight lengths; no round-level superiority is invented.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.
Brandon Moreno: Vary the entry, make Johnson defend the level change and score during the resulting resets. Use wrestling selectively to support clean striking and sustained control when the landing is available.
Charles Johnson: Maintain a recoverable striking rhythm, punish predictable entries and complete the separation after contact. Make Moreno earn each phase change rather than allowing him to interrupt the exchange for free.
- Brandon Moreno
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Charles Johnson
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Prelims
Tactical key
Tafa's whole win column is knockouts, and so is Pasley's, on a much shorter log.
Junior Tafa
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -127
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.79
Quentin Pasley
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +127
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.27
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 3/10
What limits this estimate
- Tafa falls toward 46% if Pasley lands first the way Baraniewski did.
- Pasley's UFC.com rates are a one-bout sample of about 4:41, and UFC.com listed him 1-0 ahead of a debut the ESPN log records as 3-0.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration. No market quote and no observed round chart are claimed.
Junior Tafa: Keep the first round at kicking range, where the kickboxing base and seven knockout wins are the published route, and do not give Pasley the first clean shot.
Quentin Pasley: Land first, in the round-1 window that produced all three of his knockouts, before that round becomes time spent at the end of Tafa's kicks.
- Junior Tafa
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Quentin Pasley
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Model estimate
Tactical key
The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, not a claim she is the cleaner striker: Judice's 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute come with 6.60 absorbed. Judice throws more, and gets hit more, than the ranked fighter she is meeting.
Maycee Barber
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -127
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.79
Carli Judice
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +127
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.27
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 4/10
What limits this estimate
- Judice's 9.33 pace and 6 KO/TKO wins from 7 victories are a real early-finish path, and Alexa Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42 of round 1.
- Barber's takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because 1/37 was rejected. A grappling edge is not a measured conversion, and Judice's takedown defence is 81%.
- These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration. No observed round chart was published, and no current market quote is used.
Maycee Barber: Win the minutes through the longer ranked sample and the lower absorption rate, without needing to out-throw Judice. Treat round 1 as live, because Alexa Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42.
Carli Judice: Land the 9.33 pace cleanly enough that it scores or finishes before the 6.60 absorbed becomes the story of the round.
- Maycee Barber
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Carli Judice
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Hooper needs the back; Padilla's published takedown defense is the thing in the way.
Chris Padilla
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- -133
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 1.75
Chase Hooper
Insufficient price data- Fair odds
- +133
- Estimated EV
- —
- Reference quote
- —
- Fair decimal odds
- 2.33
Uncertainty & price details Analyst conviction: 4/10
What limits this estimate
- If Hooper gets the back the way he did against Ramirez, Padilla falls toward 47%. The submission share is still 22, his largest slice.
- Hooper's 1/67 takedown line was rejected, Padilla's age differs between UFC.com (30) and Tapology (near 31), and an older reach of 75 was set aside for 74. The profiles are not opponent-adjusted.
- No observed round chart, knockdown total, average fight time, shared opponent or market quote was published. These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration.
Chris Padilla: Keep Hooper off the back. The lean is the published 83% takedown defence plus the current win over Haqparast, not a claim that the submission game across the cage is gone.
Chase Hooper: Get the back the way he did against Ramirez, rear-naked choke at 2:15 of round 1. That is the case that moves Padilla toward 47%, and it is why Hooper's largest method share is the 22% submission.
- Chris Padilla
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
- Chase Hooper
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Cancelled
Announced fight card
Six bouts are active as of October 18, 2026. Brandon Moreno vs. Charles Johnson is at flyweight. The prelims add Junior Tafa vs. Quentin Pasley at light heavyweight, Maycee Barber vs. Carli Judice at women's flyweight, and Chris Padilla vs. Chase Hooper at lightweight. Joe Pyfer vs. Bo Nickal has been rescheduled and is no longer on this card. The card remains subject to change.
Two five-round fights, different questions
Oliveira (37-11) and Lopes (28-8) meet at lightweight for the BMF belt. The matchup invites a close look at their transitions: who can attack without offering a counter or conceding position? The heavyweight co-main pairs Pavlovich (21-3) with Pereira (13-4) over five rounds, making distance management and sustained pace central questions.
Moreno (24-10-2) faces Johnson (20-9) at flyweight. Tafa (7-6) meets Pasley at light heavyweight, Barber (15-3) meets Judice (7-2) at women's flyweight, and Padilla (18-6-1) meets Hooper (17-5-1) at lightweight. All six active bouts have published editorial analysis. The prelim handicaps are Tafa 56%, Barber 56% and Padilla 57%. Pasley's card record is 3-0. Pyfer vs. Nickal is off this card.
Methodology
How Our Model Works — In Plain English
No black box. Published probabilities follow the same three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
1. We watch every fight
Recorded UFC performances provide the evidence — strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, damage, pace, and who each fighter has actually faced. No highlight reels, no reputation: just recorded performance.
2. We estimate the matchup
Each analysis weighs styles, cardio, durability and level of competition to describe likely outcomes. The 100-square chart visualizes that probability distribution; the number of squares is not evidence of model accuracy.
3. We compare it to the market
We compare the estimate with sportsbook prices, prioritizing BetOnline. Positive expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available price. Quote age, bookmaker margin and model uncertainty all affect how useful the comparison is.
What the percentages mean
74% next to a fighter means that fighter is estimated to win about 74 out of 100 comparable matchups under the model assumptions. Odds like -425 are the market's price; converting them to an implied percentage lets us compare like-for-like. The 🔴 🟡 🟢 icons tell you how much UFC data we have on each fighter; they do not measure prediction accuracy.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.