Maycee Barber vs Carli Judice – UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes

Maycee Barber

“The Future”

15W3L

Carli Judice

“Crispy”

7W2L

Judice throws more, and gets hit more, than the ranked fighter she is meeting.

Women's FlyweightT-Mobile ArenaDecember 12, 2026

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, not a claim she is the cleaner striker: Judice's 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute come with 6.60 absorbed. Judice throws more, and gets hit more, than the ranked fighter she is meeting.

Paths that change the fight

Maycee BarberWin the minutes through the longer ranked sample and the lower absorption rate, without needing to out-throw Judice. Treat round 1 as live, because Alexa Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42.
Carli JudiceLand the 9.33 pace cleanly enough that it scores or finishes before the 6.60 absorbed becomes the story of the round.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Judice's 9.33 pace and 6 KO/TKO wins from 7 victories are a real early-finish path, and Alexa Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42 of round 1.
Barber's takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because 1/37 was rejected. A grappling edge is not a measured conversion, and Judice's takedown defence is 81%.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Maycee Barber

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Carli Judice

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Editorial analysis reviewed October 18, 2026 from ufc.com/athlete/maycee-barber, ufc.com/athlete/carli-judice, and ESPN images 4246307 and 5172179. Records, the 125 lb limit, and three rounds follow the supplied card. Barber's card rank is Tapology #9; a UFC.com header had listed #6 and pound-for-pound #15, and that header is not the card rank. Judice is Tapology #20. Barber's takedown accuracy stores 0 because the page's 1/37 figure was rejected; it conflicts with 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 2.7% is not published. An older Judice dossier of 9.32 SLpM and 57% striking defence is not averaged with the October 18 figures of 9.33 and 58. No gym, shared opponent, round chart, knockdown total, target split, average fight time, or market quote was in this review. Subjective numerical handicap published, not a calibrated model output.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Maycee Barber (15-3-0) meets Carli Judice (7-2-0) in a three-round women's flyweight prelim at T-Mobile Arena. The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, not a claim she is the cleaner striker: Judice's 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute come with 6.60 absorbed.

Maycee Barber

Attribute

Carli Judice

15-3-0

Pro record

7-2-0

Age

65"

Height

+2"67"

65"

Reach

+3"68"

Not published

Leg Reach

38"

#9 flyweight

Card rank

#20 flyweight

Not published

Stance

Not published

Team

Not published

Octagon Debut

Not published

Fighting Style

Not published

Place

Lafayette, Louisiana

Measurements come from the reviewed athlete profiles, in inches. Age is the source snapshot, not a projected fight-night age. Both women are booked at 125 lb for three rounds. Judice is two inches taller and three inches longer in reach, with a leg reach of 38 inches. Barber's leg reach was not published, so no leg-reach edge is assigned. Card ranks are Tapology women's flyweight ranks: Barber #9, Judice #20. A UFC.com header had listed Barber at #6 and pound-for-pound #15; the warning mark is that discrepancy, and the card rank used here is #9. No gym is stated for either fighter. Judice's place is Lafayette, Louisiana.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds on the UFC 335 prelims at T-Mobile Arena. The round notes below are tactical questions. No observed round chart was published.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Maycee Barber

Pro Record

15-3-0

UFC Record

Not published

Streak

Lost last listed fight (Alexa Grasso)

Finish Rate

8 of 15 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)

Avg Fight Time

Not published

Chin · Not publishedSOS · Not publishedNot published

Barber enters at 15-3-0, age 28, as the #9 women's flyweight on the card rank used here. The confirmed recent ledger is a round-1 KO/TKO loss to Alexa Grasso at 2:42 on March 28, 2026, a decision win over Karine Silva on December 6, 2025, and a decision win over Katlyn Cerminara on March 9, 2024. That is the longer ranked sample behind the lean. It already includes an early stoppage loss, so the record is not a promise that she will control the range. Knockdown totals and average fight time were not published.

Carli Judice

Pro Record

7-2-0

UFC Record

Not published

Streak

Won last listed fight (Jeisla Chaves)

Finish Rate

6 of 7 wins by KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

Not published

Chin · Not publishedSOS · Not publishedNot published

Judice enters at 7-2-0, age 27, ranked #20 at women's flyweight, from Lafayette, Louisiana. The confirmed recent ledger is a round-1 KO/TKO of Jeisla Chaves at 1:39 on August 22, 2026, a decision over Juliana Miller on February 21, 2026, a round-3 KO/TKO of Nicolle Caliari on July 19, 2025, a round-1 KO/TKO of Yuneisy Duben on March 15, 2025, and a split-decision loss to Fernandes on June 15, 2024. Six of her seven wins are knockouts. Her 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute come with 6.60 absorbed. Knockdown totals and average fight time were not published.

Maycee Barber

— dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Carli Judice

— dealt · — absorbed

Maycee Barber

Alexa Grasso

KO/TKO, 2:42

Mar 28, 2026 — event name not in this review

Karine Silva

Decision

Round not published

Dec 6, 2025 — event name not in this review

Katlyn Cerminara

Decision

Round not published

Mar 9, 2024 — event name not in this review

Pattern

Only three results were confirmed for this review: a 2:42 round-1 loss to Alexa Grasso, then decisions over Karine Silva and Katlyn Cerminara. Event names were not supplied and are not guessed. No further results are added.

Carli Judice

Jeisla Chaves

KO/TKO, 1:39

Aug 22, 2026 — event name not in this review

Juliana Miller

Decision

Round not published

Feb 21, 2026 — event name not in this review

Nicolle Caliari

KO/TKO

Jul 19, 2025 — event name not in this review

Yuneisy Duben

KO/TKO

Mar 15, 2025 — event name not in this review

Fernandes

Split decision

Round not published

Jun 15, 2024 — event name not in this review

Pattern

The five confirmed results are a 1:39 round-1 stoppage of Jeisla Chaves, a decision over Juliana Miller, a round-3 stoppage of Nicolle Caliari, a round-1 stoppage of Yuneisy Duben, and a split-decision loss to Fernandes. Six of seven career wins are KO/TKO. Event names were not supplied and are not guessed.

Maycee Barber

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Carli Judice

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The donuts are the supplied career method counts, not the forecast. Barber is 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions and 7 decisions out of 15 wins (40 / 46.7 / 13.3). Judice is 6 KO/TKO, 0 submissions and 1 decision out of 7 wins (85.7 / 14.3 / 0). The round bars stay at 0. No observed round chart was published, so a zero is an unpublished round of victory, not a finding that nobody wins that round.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Maycee	Carli
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Not published — Tapology card rank #9 women's flyweight. A UFC.com header had listed #6 and pound-for-pound #15; the card rank used here is #9. No strength-of-schedule count was published.	Not published — Tapology card rank #20 women's flyweight. Place: Lafayette, Louisiana. No strength-of-schedule count was published. No gym was stated.
UFC sample	Not published	Not published
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Alexa Grasso, Karine Silva, Katlyn Cerminara	Jeisla Chaves, Juliana Miller, Nicolle Caliari

Maycee

Carli

The editorial split is Barber 56 / Judice 44 in the verdict. It is not a composite score.

Metric	Maycee	Carli
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	0	0
Pace (SLpM)	4.56	9.33
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	0	0
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	0	0
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	0	0

Archetype Base Rate

No archetype sample 50%50% No archetype sample

No archetype sample published · The 50/50 bar is an empty placeholder. No archetype base rate was published. It is not the editorial split, which is Barber 56% and Judice 44%.

Maycee BarberCarli Judice

Women's Flyweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Maycee	Carli
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.56	9.33
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	53% (747/1403)	50% (558/1105)
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	55%	58%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.78	6.60
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0	0
Damage RatioDamage RatioSignificant strikes landed divided by significant strikes absorbed. Above 1 means more landed than absorbed; compare with the division average shown in this table. Strike counts do not measure damage severity.	0	0
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.56	0.50
TD Acc	0 (1/37 rejected)	25% (2/8)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	52%	81%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.09	0
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	0	0

Statistical Verdict
These are the October 18, 2026 UFC.com rates, plus the card ranks stated separately: Barber #9 and Judice #20 on Tapology. No per-stat division rank or division average was published, so none is assigned. Knockdown average, damage ratio, and average fight time stay at 0 because they were not published. Barber's takedown accuracy stays at 0 because 1 of 37 was rejected; that stored 0 is not a measured conversion. Judice's October 18 figures are 9.33 SLpM and 58% striking defence. An older 9.32 and 57% pair is not averaged in.

Maycee Barber

No observed round chart was published.
Round 1 is already live on Barber's record: Alexa Grasso won by KO/TKO at 2:42.
If the fight is still being scored, Barber's largest editorial share is the decision, at 34.

Carli Judice

No observed round chart was published.
The listed finish clock includes Jeisla Chaves at 1:39 of round 1, Yuneisy Duben in round 1, and Nicolle Caliari in round 3.
Pace is 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute. Absorption is 6.60. Both are career rates, not round totals.

Critical Insight
No observed round chart was published. Every round cell is 0 and the sample size is 0, so the line and the heatmap are empty on purpose. R4 and R5 are not scheduled in this three-round bout. Zeros are unpublished cells, not observed silence.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceEven

No phase chart was published. Judice's pace is 9.33 and her reach is 68 inches to Barber's 65. That is the open-space question, not a measured ownership share.

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Accuracy is 53% (747/1403) against 50% (558/1105). Absorption is 2.78 against 6.60. No target split was published.

ClinchEven

No clinch chart was published. Range shares stay at 0.

GroundEven

Barber's takedown rate is 1.56 per 15 minutes with accuracy stored as 0 because 1/37 was rejected. Judice's takedown defence is 81%, her own rate is 0.50 at 25% (2/8), and her submission attempts are 0.

The Deep Read

The fight is a volume-against-absorption problem before it is a style label. Judice lands 9.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.60. Barber lands 4.56 and absorbs 2.78. Accuracy is close: 53% on 747 of 1,403 for Barber, 50% on 558 of 1,105 for Judice. Striking defence is close too, 55% against 58%. A small defence edge does not cancel an absorption rate more than twice as high. Judice throws more, and gets hit more, than the ranked fighter she is meeting. That is why the lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, not a claim she is the cleaner striker.

Judice is 67 inches to Barber's 65, with a 68-inch reach to a 65-inch reach, and a published leg reach of 38 inches that Barber's profile did not match. The bout is three rounds at 125 pounds on the UFC 335 prelims, December 12, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena. Barber's card rank is Tapology #9. A UFC.com header had said #6 and pound-for-pound #15; those figures are recorded and are not the rank used here. Judice is #20, age 27, from Lafayette, Louisiana. No gym is stated for either fighter. There is no fifth round in which a slow read becomes cheap.

The recent results stop where the review stops. Barber lost to Alexa Grasso by KO/TKO at 2:42 of round 1 on March 28, 2026, decisioned Karine Silva on December 6, 2025, and decisioned Katlyn Cerminara on March 9, 2024. Judice stopped Jeisla Chaves at 1:39 of round 1 on August 22, 2026, decisioned Juliana Miller on February 21, 2026, stopped Nicolle Caliari in round 3 on July 19, 2025, stopped Yuneisy Duben in round 1 on March 15, 2025, and lost a split decision to Fernandes on June 15, 2024. Grasso's early finish is the picture in the downside case. It is not a transitive model of Judice. No confirmed shared opponent was in the reviewed sources.

Grappling does not quietly solve the striking problem. Barber averages 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, defends them at 52%, and attempts 0.09 submissions per 15 minutes, with takedown accuracy withheld because 1 of 37 conflicts with the average. Judice averages 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes at 25% on 2 of 8, defends at 81%, and attempts 0 submissions per 15 minutes. Career methods match that limit: Barber 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 7 decisions; Judice 6 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 1 decision. The handicap gives Barber the decision plurality (34) and Judice the larger knockout share (26).

UFC 335 is scheduled for December 12, 2026 at T-Mobile Arena. Barber vs. Judice is a three-round women's flyweight prelim.

Path to Victory

Maycee Barber

Win the minutes through the longer ranked sample and the lower absorption rate, without needing to out-throw Judice. Treat round 1 as live, because Alexa Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42.

Why they win

Longer ranked sample

Barber is 15-3-0 and the #9 women's flyweight on the Tapology card rank. Judice is 7-2-0 and #20. That gap is the lean. A UFC.com header had listed Barber at #6 and pound-for-pound #15; the card rank used here is #9.

Lower absorption

Barber absorbs 2.78 significant strikes per minute. Judice absorbs 6.60. The lean is not a claim that Barber is the cleaner striker. Accuracy is close, at 53% and 50%.

Decision ledger

Seven of Barber's 15 wins are decisions, which is why the decision share in the handicap is 34. Judice has one decision win in the supplied method count.

Takedown attempt rate, with a limit

Barber averages 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.09 submission attempts. Takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because 1/37 was rejected. Judice's takedown defence is 81%, so the attempt rate is not a measured conversion.

Three-round scoring

If Judice's volume is expensive rather than clean, Barber does not need a fifth round for the decision route. She also does not get a fifth round if she falls behind early.

The gameplan

1
Entry
Do not open as if the first exchange is only information. Grasso ended a Barber fight at 2:42 of round 1, and Judice's recent ledger includes a 1:39 stoppage of Jeisla Chaves.
2
Contact
Keep the comparison on clean contact and damage taken: 4.56 landed and 2.78 absorbed against 9.33 landed and 6.60 absorbed. Matching output is not the win condition.
3
Level change
A takedown rate of 1.56 per 15 minutes is published. Accuracy is not. The stored 0 means 1/37 was rejected. Judice defends takedowns at 81%.
4
If the pace is clean
The win share moves toward 46%. The adjustment is to change the minute. This booking has no championship round waiting behind a slow start.
5
If it is still scored
The decision is the 34-point route. Seven of Barber's fifteen wins are decisions. A late flush of attempts does not, by itself, erase earlier clean work.

Path to Victory

Carli Judice

Land the 9.33 pace cleanly enough that it scores or finishes before the 6.60 absorbed becomes the story of the round.

Why they win

Published pace

Judice lands 9.33 significant strikes per minute, on 558 of 1,105 attempts at 50% accuracy. Barber lands 4.56, on 747 of 1,403 at 53%.

Knockout ledger

Six of Judice's seven wins are KO/TKO, and the editorial knockout share is 26, larger than Barber's 16. The recent list includes Chaves at 1:39 of round 1, Duben in round 1, and Caliari in round 3.

Size in the published measurements

Judice is 67 inches to 65, with a 68-inch reach to 65, and a leg reach of 38 inches. Barber's leg reach was not published. Reach can start an exchange. It does not score one.

Takedown defence

Judice's takedown defence is 81%. Her own takedown rate is 0.50 per 15 minutes at 25% on 2 of 8, and her submission attempts per 15 minutes are a published 0.

The Grasso minute is the downside

Barber was stopped at 2:42 of round 1 by Alexa Grasso. If Judice's pace lands clean in that kind of opening, the ranked sample does not get a long fight. That is context for the 46% downside, not a claim that Judice and Grasso are the same fighter.

The gameplan

1
Entry
The offensive case is the published pace: 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute, at 50% on 558 of 1,105.
2
Cost
Striking defence of 58% against Barber's 55% does not offset 6.60 absorbed per minute. The shots have to be the ones that score, not only the ones that count as attempts.
3
Finish window
Six of seven wins are KO/TKO. The supplied recent clock is Chaves at 1:39 of round 1, Duben in round 1, and Caliari in round 3.
4
Distance
A 68-inch reach against 65, and 67 inches of height against 65, can help start the exchange. Those measurements do not score the exchange by themselves.
5
If it stays upright
The decision path in this handicap is 16 points, beside one career decision win. Minutes still have to be won while getting hit. Submission attempts per 15 minutes are 0.

Danger Zone

How Maycee Barber loses

Judice's pace lands clean the way Grasso's did, and the fight is over early. That is the case that moves Barber toward 46%.
Barber hunts takedowns whose conversion was not published, against 81% takedown defence, and loses the striking minutes while doing it.
Volume is treated as a number to match, and the 2.78 absorption rate never becomes the argument of the round.

Danger Zone

How Carli Judice loses

The 6.60 absorbed becomes the story of the round, and Barber's lower absorption and longer ranked sample win the minutes. That moves Barber toward 65% and Judice toward 35%.
Output arrives without being the cleaner contact, so the attempt count runs ahead of the damage that ends a round.
A grappling exchange is asked to save a striking minute. Judice has 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 0 submission wins.

9.33 landed, 6.60 absorbed

Volume with a bill attached

Judice's pace is the offensive case and her absorption is the case against reading that pace as cleanliness. Barber's 4.56 and 2.78 are the other side of the same minute. Accuracy at 53% and 50%, and defence at 55% and 58%, do not overturn the absorption gap.

6.60

Judice significant strikes absorbed per minute

Tapology #9 against #20

The lean is the ranked sample

Barber is 15-3-0 at the #9 card rank. Judice is 7-2-0 at #20. A UFC.com header had listed Barber at #6 and pound-for-pound #15. That header is not the card rank. The longer sample is why Barber is at 56%, and it is not a striking grade.

Barber card rank used in this handicap

Stored 0 is not a measured zero

Takedown accuracy was rejected

Barber's UFC.com page paired a 1 of 37 takedown line with 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. Those figures conflict, so 2.7% is not published. The stats object stores 0 because 1/37 was rejected. Judice is published at 25% on 2 of 8, with 81% takedown defence.

81%

Judice takedown defence

And no round chart

No shared opponent

No confirmed shared opponent was in the reviewed sources, so none is invented. No observed round chart was published. Target splits, knockdown totals, and average fight time stay at 0 for that reason. The Grasso result is one fight on Barber's ledger, not a bridge to Judice.

Counts were supplied; rounds of those wins were not

Methods, not a finish clock

Barber's wins add up as 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions and 7 decisions. Judice's add up as 6 KO/TKO, 0 submissions and 1 decision. A few recent rounds are known, including Grasso and Chaves in round 1. That is not a complete finish-by-round chart, so the finish curve stays at 0.

The Five-Round Clock

Maycee Barber danger windowCarli Judice danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The opening is already on both ledgers

Barber lost to Alexa Grasso at 2:42 of round 1. Judice stopped Jeisla Chaves at 1:39 of round 1 and Yuneisy Duben in round 1. This is the window for Judice's 26-point knockout share, and the window that drops Barber toward 46% if the pace lands clean.

Critical Insight
Three rounds put the finish and the absorption question in the same short fight. Barber does not get a championship round to solve a clean Judice pace, and Judice does not get a long decision sample she has not shown. No observed round chart was published.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Judice throws more, and gets hit more, than the ranked fighter she is meeting: 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute, and 6.60 absorbed, against Barber at 4.56 and 2.78.

Maycee Barber 56% / Carli Judice 44%. The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, Tapology #9 at 15-3-0 against #20 at 7-2-0, not a claim she is the cleaner striker.

Barber falls toward 46% if Judice's pace lands clean the way Grasso's did, and rises toward 65% if Judice's absorption becomes the story of the round. Judice's complementary range is 35–54%. Conviction is 4/10. No market quote is used.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Barber Decision — 34%Barber Submission — 6%Barber KO/TKO — 16%Judice KO/TKO — 26%Judice Decision — 16%Judice Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Maycee Barber gold · Carli Judice orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Longer ranked sample

Barber 56% / Judice 44%. The lean is 15-3-0 at Tapology #9 against 7-2-0 at #20, not a claim that Barber is the cleaner striker. The UFC.com header rank of #6 and pound-for-pound #15 is not used as the card rank.

Pace against absorption

Judice at 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute also absorbs 6.60. Barber is at 4.56 and 2.78. Accuracy is 53% against 50%, and defence is 55% against 58%.

The first round

Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42 of round 1. Judice stopped Chaves at 1:39 of round 1 and Duben in round 1. If that kind of minute is clean for Judice, Barber's share falls toward 46%.

Grappling is unpublished where it would matter

Barber's takedown accuracy stores 0 because 1/37 was rejected. Judice's takedown defence is 81%. Submission attempts are 0.09 and 0 per 15 minutes. The submission shares are 6 and 2.

What was not in the review

No market quote, no shared opponent, no observed round chart, no knockdown total, no target split, and no average fight time. Conviction is 4/10 because the evidence cuts both ways, not because the win probability is small.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Absorption becomes the round

Barber's 34-point decision is the principal share. It is the version in which 6.60 absorbed, not 9.33 thrown, is what the round is about, and the longer ranked sample wins the minutes. Seven of Barber's 15 career wins are decisions.

Scripted outcomes for Maycee Barber vs Carli Judice — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Maycee Barber win probability

16%

34%

KO/TKODECSUB

Six career KO/TKO wins show a stoppage route. The recent results in this review are two decisions and a first-round loss, and 4.56 SLpM is not the volume assigned to Judice's larger knockout share.
Seven of 15 wins are decisions, absorption is 2.78 per minute, and the lean is the longer ranked sample. This is the principal route.
Two career submission wins and 0.09 attempts per 15 minutes keep this small. Takedown accuracy was rejected, and Judice's takedown defence is 81%.

Carli Judice win probability

26%

16%

KO/TKODECSUB

Six of seven wins are KO/TKO, including Chaves at 1:39 of round 1, Duben in round 1, and Caliari in round 3. The 9.33 pace is the offensive case, and this is her largest share.
One career decision win is in the supplied method count, beside the Miller decision in the recent list. She can win minutes while absorbing 6.60 per minute. This share is 16.
Zero career submission wins and 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. This is a residual share, not a plan.

Model and price

Maycee Barber: -127 · Carli Judice: +127

Fair American prices of the editorial 56/44 split, matching fair decimals 1.79 and 2.27. They are arithmetic break-even prices without bookmaker margin. They are not a market quote and not a betting recommendation.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No market quote was reviewed on October 18, 2026. There is no value bet to name. The -127 / +127 pair is the fair American price of Barber 56% and Judice 44% (decimal 1.79 / 2.27), not a bookmaker line.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Editorial conviction is 4/10. Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the win probability. The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, not a claim she is the cleaner striker. Lean: Maycee Barber.

What backs the lean

The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, not a claim she is the cleaner striker: Judice's 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute come with 6.60 absorbed.
Barber is Tapology #9 at 15-3-0. Judice is #20 at 7-2-0. The UFC.com header of #6 and pound-for-pound #15 is noted and is not the card rank.
Seven of Barber's 15 wins are decisions and she absorbs 2.78 per minute, which is why the decision share is 34 even though Judice has the larger knockout share.

What limits it

Judice's 9.33 pace and 6 KO/TKO wins from 7 victories are a real early-finish path, and Alexa Grasso stopped Barber at 2:42 of round 1.
Barber's takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because 1/37 was rejected. A grappling edge is not a measured conversion, and Judice's takedown defence is 81%.
These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration. No observed round chart was published, and no current market quote is used.

Final Assessment

Maycee Barber 56% / Carli Judice 44%. Maycee Barber is the editorial selection. The lean is Barber's longer ranked sample, #9 women's flyweight on Tapology at 15-3-0 against Judice at #20 and 7-2-0, not a claim she is the cleaner striker. Judice's 9.33 significant strikes landed per minute come with 6.60 absorbed. Judice retains 44% because that pace, and 6 KO/TKO wins from 7 victories, can win a three-round fight if the shots land clean the way Alexa Grasso's did.

Barber falls toward 46% if Judice's pace lands clean the way Grasso's did; she rises toward 65% if Judice's absorption becomes the story of the round. The complementary range for Judice is 35–54%. The distance remains three rounds. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals. Editorial conviction is 4/10.

Fair decimal prices are 1.79 and 2.27. Fair American prices are -127 and +127. They are the arithmetic break-even prices of 56% and 44%, without bookmaker margin. No market quote was reviewed, and no betting edge is asserted. The six method shares — Barber 16 KO/TKO, 6 submission, 34 decision; Judice 26 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 16 decision — sum to 100. No observed round chart was published.

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