Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Michelle Montague: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Jacqueline Cavalcanti — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

10W2L
Striker
VS
Michelle Montague — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Michelle Montague

“The Wild One”
8W0L
Wrestling base

Cavalcanti has to make the takedown miss before Montague turns the fight into a ride.

Women's BantamweightABHA Arena, DohaNovember 21, 202630-foot cage

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Cavalcanti has to make the takedown miss before Montague turns the fight into a ride. Their wins over Mayra Bueno Silva are context, not a transitive ranking.

Paths that change the fight

  • Jacqueline CavalcantiMake the takedown miss, keep the fight standing, and let the published volume gap and 69% striking defense score the minutes.
  • Michelle MontagueClose the small reach gap, complete takedowns, and turn the fight into a ride that includes offence. A submission remains possible. The 0.00 UFC submission rate is not evidence she cannot submit.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • If Montague completes takedowns and holds, Cavalcanti falls toward 47%. The complementary Montague range is 34–53%.
  • Montague's UFC rates are two fights. Her takedown defense was not published. Cavalcanti's takedown accuracy was too small to publish. The record header (14-1 versus 10-2-0) and the rank header (#12 versus #18) are unresolved conflicts, and the card figures are the ones used.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.75

Michelle Montague

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Editorial analysis reviewed October 18, 2026. Sources are the UFC athlete pages jacqueline-cavalcanti and michelle-montague, plus ESPN headshots 4916251 and 4916259. The card uses the UFC.com header record of 10-2-0. An older site dossier said 14-1 and is not used. Tapology ranks Cavalcanti #8 and Montague #18. A UFC.com header had said Montague #12; this page uses #18. Subjective numerical handicap published. No calibrated-model claim. No market quote.

Model methodology
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Jacqueline Cavalcanti (10-2-0) vs. Michelle Montague (8-0-0): Women's Bantamweight, 3 five-minute rounds in a 30-foot cage at ABHA Arena in Doha. Cavalcanti has to make the takedown miss before Montague turns the fight into a ride. Their wins over Mayra Bueno Silva are context, not a transitive ranking.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Attribute
Michelle Montague
29
Age
32
68.00
Height
+1 in69.00
70.00+1.5 in
Reach
68.50
41.00+0.5 in
Leg Reach
40.50
Not published
Stance
Not published
Syndicate MMA
Team
American Top Team
Not published
Octagon Debut
Not published
Striker
Fighting Style
Wrestling base
#8
Tapology rank
#18
10-2-0
Card record
8-0-0

Heights and reaches are inches from the reviewed profiles. Age is that snapshot, not a projected fight-night age. The booked limit is 135 lb. Brazil is the listed origin supplied for Cavalcanti, not a city-level birthplace. Montague is listed from Matamata, New Zealand. The card record is 10-2-0 from the UFC.com header. An older site dossier said 14-1 and is not used. The published method counts, 3 KO/TKO, 0 submissions and 7 decisions, add to those 10 wins. Tapology lists Montague at #18. A UFC.com header had said #12.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds in a 30-foot cage at ABHA Arena in Doha. The space can help a striker who makes a shot miss and returns to center. It does not stop a ride once the shot lands at the fence. Rounds 4 and 5 are not booked.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Headshot of Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Pro Record
10-2-0
UFC Record
Not separately published
Streak
Lost last (Ketlen Vieira, decision)
Finish Rate
30% (3 of 10 wins)
Avg Fight Time
0 (not published)
Chin · Not publishedSOS · Tapology #8Striker

Cavalcanti is 29, listed as a striker from Brazil, with Syndicate MMA on the UFC.com team line. The card uses 10-2-0 from the UFC.com header. An older dossier of 14-1 is not used. Three of those ten wins are KO/TKO, none are submissions, and seven are decisions. The reviewed recent ledger ends in a decision loss to Ketlen Vieira on May 16, 2026, after decision wins over Mayra Bueno Silva and Karol Rosa (Avila) and split decisions over Nora Cornolle and Josiane Nunes. Knockdown totals were not published. The stored dealt and absorbed counts are 0. Average fight time was not published and is stored as 0.

Headshot of Michelle Montague

Michelle Montague

Pro Record
8-0-0
UFC Record
2-0 in the reviewed UFC sample
Streak
8-0; last win Bueno Silva, decision
Finish Rate
75% (6 of 8 wins)
Avg Fight Time
0 (not published)
Chin · Not publishedSOS · Tapology #18Wrestling base

Montague, The Wild One, is 32, from Matamata, New Zealand, with a wrestling base and American Top Team listed on UFC.com. She is 8-0-0. Career methods are 0 knockouts, 6 submissions and 2 decisions. The UFC.com rates are a two-fight sample, and both reviewed UFC wins were decisions, over Mayra Bueno Silva on April 25, 2026 and Luana Carolina on September 27, 2025. The six submission wins are not those two decisions. A UFC-sample submission rate of 0.00 is not evidence she cannot submit. No further recent opponents were in the review, so none are added. Knockdown totals and average fight time were not published and are stored as 0.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Michelle Montague
— dealt · — absorbed

Jacqueline Cavalcantisignature weapons

KO/TKOPublished career count. Specific technique and round were not in the snapshot.
×3
DecisionPublished career count. Seven of the ten card wins.
×7

Michelle Montaguesignature weapons

SubmissionCareer count. Not the two reviewed UFC wins, which were decisions. UFC Sub/15 of 0.00 is not evidence she cannot submit.
×6
DecisionPublished career count, matching the two reviewed UFC wins.
×2

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

L
Ketlen Vieira
Decision
—
May 16, 2026 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
W
Mayra Bueno Silva
Decision
—
November 8, 2025 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
W
Karol Rosa (Avila)
Decision
—
February 15, 2025 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
W
Nora Cornolle
Split decision
—
September 28, 2024 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
W
Josiane Nunes
Split decision
—
August 24, 2024 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
Pattern

Five reviewed results, most recent first. The last one is a decision loss to Ketlen Vieira. The four before it are decisions, two of them split. Rounds, scorecards and event names were not in the snapshot. This is not a 14-1 record.

Michelle Montague

W
Mayra Bueno Silva
Decision
—
April 25, 2026 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
W
Luana Carolina
Decision
—
September 27, 2025 — event name not in the reviewed snapshot
Pattern

Two reviewed UFC results, both decision wins. The form list stops there. Repeating rows or inventing three more opponents would misstate the brief. The 8-0 career record and six submission wins are method totals, not additional named bouts on this list.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Michelle Montague

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are the published career method counts: Cavalcanti 3 KO/TKO, 0 submissions and 7 decisions out of 10 wins (30 / 0 / 70). Montague 0 KO, 6 submissions and 2 decisions out of 8 wins (0 / 75 / 25). The round bars are 0 because no finishing-round distribution was published. Those zeros are not a claim that nobody has won a round. Montague's six submission wins are career counts. Both reviewed UFC wins were decisions, so the 0.00 UFC submission rate is not evidence she cannot submit.

Common Opponents

OpponentJacquelineMichelle
Mayra Bueno SilvaW· Decision (November 8, 2025)W· Decision (April 25, 2026)
Both won decisions. That is context, not a transitive ranking. Scorecards, control time and round margins were not in the reviewed snapshot.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Jacqueline
0
Michellefew UFC fights

Editorial. Cavalcanti 61, Montague 46. SLpM is scaled by the template ceiling of 8. Absorption uses that same ceiling and is inverted. Montague's rates are a two-fight sample (83 of 171). Cavalcanti's accuracy is 477 of 1,019.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Jacquelinefew UFC fights
0
Michellefew UFC fights

Editorial. Cavalcanti 26, Montague 18. Cavalcanti TDAcc was not published (0 of 2 is too small) and is entered as 0. Montague TDDef was not published and is entered as 0. Those zeros pull the gauges down. They are not measured conversion or defense rates. Montague TDAcc is 38% on 5 of 13.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Jacqueline
0
Michelle

Editorial. Rounded average of the striking and grappling gauges. Cavalcanti (61+26)/2 = 43.5, shown as 44. Montague (46+18)/2 = 32.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Jacquelinefew UFC fights
0
Michellefew UFC fights

Editorial score 0. Fight time, pace, R3/R1 output and championship-round counts were not published. The 0 is not an observed cardio measurement.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Jacqueline
0
Michelle

Editorial. Average of technical and cardio. Cardio is 0, so overall is half the technical gauge: 22 and 16. This is not the 57/43 win split.

MetricJacquelineMichelle
Avg Fight Time0few UFC fights0few UFC fights
Pace TierNot publishedNot published
R3/R1 Output0few UFC fights0few UFC fights
Slow Start %0few UFC fights0few UFC fights
Champ Rounds0few UFC fights0few UFC fights

Archetype Base Rate

Striker 50%50% Wrestling base

No published sample · No wrestler-versus-striker base rate was published. The even bar is a placeholder. It is not the editorial 57/43 handicap.

Jacqueline CavalcantiMichelle Montague

Women's Bantamweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatJacquelineMichelle
SLpM5.302.77
Str Acc47%49%
Str Def69%42%
SApM2.982.47
KD Avg00
Damage RatioNot publishedNot published
TD/1503.50
TD Acc0 (not published)38% (5/13)
TD Def86%0 (not published)
Sub/1500.00
Avg Fight Time00
Statistical Verdict
No division cohort or division average was published, so no rate rank is assigned. Tapology bout ranks are #8 and #18 and are not these stat ranks. A UFC.com header had listed Montague at #12. Montague's UFC rates are a two-fight sample. Cavalcanti TDAcc is stored as 0 because 0 of 2 was not published as a rate. Montague TDDef is stored as 0 because it was not published. KD averages are 0 because knockdowns per 15 minutes were not reconciled. Average fight time is 0 because it was not published. Those zeros are placeholders, not observed zeros. Damage ratio was not published and is not inferred.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

  • No observed round chart was published. Significant strikes, accuracy, control seconds and knockdowns are 0 with a sample size of 0.
  • Those zeros are not a claim that Cavalcanti lands nothing in a round.
  • The bout is booked for 3 rounds. Rounds 4 and 5 are not on the card.

Michelle Montague

  • No observed round chart was published. The same zeros and sample size of 0 apply to Montague.
  • Target splits were not published, so head, body, leg, distance, clinch and ground shares are not filled in.
  • Her UFC rates come from two fights. That sample is not a round-by-round chart.
Critical Insight
No observed round chart was published. The lines stay empty because a sample size of 0 means the stored zeros are missing evidence, not an observed shutout.
04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJacqueline owns it

Editorial read from 5.30 vs 2.77 and a 1.5-inch reach edge in a 30-foot cage. Not a measured phase win rate.

Pocket / ExchangesJacqueline owns it

Editorial read from 69% striking defense against 42%. Montague's defense is a two-fight sample.

ClinchEven

No clinch chart was published. Even is a placeholder, not a measured split.

GroundMichelle owns it

Editorial read from 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes against a Cavalcanti takedown rate of 0. Montague's takedown defense was not published.

The Deep Read

Cavalcanti's published profile is a volume striker without an offensive takedown rate: 5.30 significant strikes per minute, 47% accuracy, 69% striking defense, 2.98 absorbed, 0 takedowns per 15 minutes, 86% takedown defense, and 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The job in this booking is narrow. She has to make the level change miss, then let the volume gap score. Takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because 0 landed of 2 attempted was too small to publish as a rate.

Montague's UFC rates are two fights: 2.77 per minute, 49% accuracy on 83 of 171, 42% striking defense, 2.47 absorbed, 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes at 38% on 5 of 13, and 0.00 submission attempts. Takedown defense was not published and is stored as 0. If the shot misses, that striking line is the problem. If it lands and she holds, the volume gap stops being the score. Six of her eight career wins are submissions, and both reviewed UFC wins were decisions. She can submit. The UFC sample has not yet shown it.

Both beat Mayra Bueno Silva by decision, Cavalcanti on November 8, 2025 and Montague on April 25, 2026. Those are two different fights. They are context, not a transitive ranking. Nothing in the snapshot describes the rounds, the control, or which performance was cleaner.

The bodies are close: 68 inches against 69, 70 inches of reach against 68.5, 41 inches of leg reach against 40.5, ages 29 and 32 in the snapshot. The cage is 30 feet at ABHA Arena in Doha, and the bout is three rounds on the preliminary card. Cavalcanti's UFC.com header record is 10-2-0, not an older 14-1 dossier. Tapology lists her #8 and Montague #18. A UFC.com header had said #12 for Montague. Her last reviewed result is a decision loss to Ketlen Vieira, which is a reason for modest conviction and not a description of how that fight was lost.

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling event poster
Event poster for UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling at ABHA Arena in Doha. No in-fight photo was part of the reviewed snapshot.
Path to Victory

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Make the takedown miss, keep the fight standing, and let the published volume gap and 69% striking defense score the minutes.

Why they win
01
Volume gap

UFC.com lists 5.30 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.77. That is the standing argument if the fight stays upright.

02
Striking defense

69% striking defense against 42%. Montague's figure sits on 83 of 171 significant strikes in a two-fight UFC sample. Cavalcanti's accuracy count is 477 of 1,019.

03
Takedown defense on the profile

86% takedown defense is the number that has to travel. Her own takedown accuracy was not published. 0 of 2 is too small to print as a rate, so TDAcc is stored as 0.

04
Decision record

Seven of the ten wins on the 10-2-0 UFC.com header are decisions. A three-round scorecard is the ordinary path in that ledger. The older 14-1 dossier is not used.

05
Reach in a big cage

70 inches of reach against 68.5, and 41 inches of leg reach against 40.5, in a 30-foot cage. The edges are small. They matter only if she can separate after contact.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    First level change

    Treat the first shot as the fee for the fight. Make it miss rather than planning to climb off the fence later.

  2. 2
    Reset

    After each exchange, get back toward the center of the 30-foot cage so Montague has to cover the reach again.

  3. 3
    Round 1

    Score the first round on the feet. Three rounds do not leave a long window to repay an early ride.

  4. 4
    Stay a striker

    Do not chase a grappling exchange the profile does not show. Takedowns per 15 minutes are 0, and submission attempts per 15 minutes are 0.

  5. 5
    If it lands

    Stand up before a completed shot becomes the round. The 86% takedown-defense figure only helps if the separation happens.

Path to Victory

Michelle Montague

Close the small reach gap, complete takedowns, and turn the fight into a ride that includes offence. A submission remains possible. The 0.00 UFC submission rate is not evidence she cannot submit.

Why they win
01
Wrestling rate

3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes at 38% on 5 of 13 in the two-fight UFC sample, against a Cavalcanti takedown rate of 0. The style listing is a wrestling base.

02
Career submissions

Six of eight career wins are submissions. Both reviewed UFC wins were decisions, and UFC Sub/15 is 0.00. That rate is not evidence she cannot submit.

03
Undefeated card record

8-0-0. The two named UFC results are decision wins over Mayra Bueno Silva and Luana Carolina. No other recent opponents were supplied.

04
The ride

If the shot lands and she holds, Cavalcanti's 5.30 per minute stops being the score. Takedown defense for Montague was not published and is stored as 0.

05
Height

69 inches against 68. One inch, not a frame that decides the fight by itself. American Top Team is the UFC.com team listing. She is from Matamata, New Zealand.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Close the gap

    Make Cavalcanti strike while backing up. The reach edge is 1.5 inches, and it disappears at the fence.

  2. 2
    Keep shooting

    Follow a missed shot with another attempt. Five of 13 is a small UFC count, not a promise that the first shot lands.

  3. 3
    Hold

    If the shot lands, hold and advance position. A ride without offence should not be assumed to win the round.

  4. 4
    Submission window

    Look for the submission when the position is there. Do not abandon a winning control round to force a finish the reviewed UFC fights did not show.

  5. 5
    Avoid a long kickboxing minute

    At 2.77 significant strikes per minute and 42% striking defense, an extended standing round favors the other rate line.

Danger Zone

How Jacqueline Cavalcanti loses

  • Montague completes takedowns and holds, and the standing volume never becomes the score.

  • The 86% takedown defense does not travel against 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, even though that rate is a two-fight sample.

  • Early control in a three-round preliminary leaves too little time to win the minutes back.

Danger Zone

How Michelle Montague loses

  • The shot misses and Cavalcanti's 5.30 to 2.77 volume gap, with 69% striking defense against 42%, wins the rounds.

  • Takedowns land and do not hold, and the 30-foot cage lets Cavalcanti return to center.

  • She gives back a control minute chasing a finish the two reviewed UFC wins did not show.

The fight's actual question

The miss or the ride

Cavalcanti has to make the takedown miss before Montague turns the fight into a ride. Volume and 69% striking defense are the standing case. 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes are the grappling case. One of those phases has to give.

5.30 vs 2.77
Significant strikes landed per minute
86% is published. The attempts behind it were not

Defense that has to travel

Cavalcanti's takedown defense is 86%. Montague's takedown defense was not published and is stored as 0. Cavalcanti's takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because 0 of 2 was too small to publish. The grappling gauges are flagged for those placeholders.

86%
Cavalcanti takedown defense
477 of 1,019 against 83 of 171

Two samples, one comparison

Cavalcanti's striking accuracy sits on 1,019 attempts. Montague's UFC striking and takedown rates are a two-fight sample, 5 of 13 on the takedowns. The averages can be placed side by side. They are not equally mature.

Do not read 0.00 as cannot submit

Submissions on the ledger, decisions in the UFC sample

Montague has six career submission wins and a UFC-sample submission rate of 0.00. Both reviewed UFC wins, Luana Carolina and Mayra Bueno Silva, were decisions. The career route is real. The reviewed UFC path has been control to the scorecards.

Mayra Bueno Silva

Shared opponent, not a ranking

Both won decisions over Mayra Bueno Silva, on different dates. That is the only common opponent in this review. It is context. It is not a transitive ranking and it is not scored inside the 57/43 split.

The Five-Round Clock

Jacqueline Cavalcanti danger windowMichelle Montague danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Does the first shot land?

Cavalcanti needs the miss and a standing minute. Montague needs a completed takedown before the volume gap becomes the round.

Critical Insight
Three rounds put the weight on whichever phase sticks first. The 47–66% sensitivity is that question: a completed hold pulls Cavalcanti toward 47%, and a standing fight behind the 86% takedown defense and the volume gap pulls her toward 66%.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Cavalcanti has to make the takedown miss before Montague turns the fight into a ride.

2

Editorial split: Cavalcanti 57 (KO 16, submission 2, decision 39) and Montague 43 (KO 4, submission 12, decision 27). Fair prices are -133 / +133, decimal 1.75 / 2.33. No market line was reviewed.

3

Conviction is 4/10. Cavalcanti falls toward 47% if the takedowns land and hold, and rises toward 66% if the 86% takedown defense and the volume gap keep it standing. Montague's complement is 34–53%. The Bueno Silva wins are context, not a ranking.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Cavalcanti Decision — 39%Cavalcanti Submission — 2%Cavalcanti KO/TKO — 16%Montague KO/TKO — 4%Montague Decision — 27%Montague Submission — 12%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Jacqueline Cavalcanti gold · Michelle Montague orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Takedown defense against takedown volume

Cavalcanti is listed at 86% takedown defense. Montague is listed at 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and 38% accuracy on 5 of 13. If the defense holds, the standing minute is available. If the shots land and stick, the 57% lean falls toward 47%.

The volume gap

5.30 significant strikes per minute against 2.77, and 69% striking defense against 42%. Accuracy is close, 47% on 477 of 1,019 against 49% on 83 of 171. Output is not close.

Sample size

Montague's UFC rates are two fights. Cavalcanti's striking count is much larger. Comparing them is fair only with that limit attached. Conviction stays at 4/10 because of it.

Submission ledger versus the UFC sample

Six career submission wins keep a 12% share on Montague. Both reviewed UFC wins were decisions, and Sub/15 is 0.00 in that sample. The rate does not mean she cannot submit. It means the reviewed UFC path has been decisions, which is why her decision share is 27% rather than a finish-heavy split.

What is not evidence

The shared decision wins over Mayra Bueno Silva are not a transitive ranking. The 14-1 dossier is not the card record. The #12 header is not the rank used. No market quote was reviewed. No round chart, target split, knockdown total or average fight time was published.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Standing decision

The takedown misses often enough that Cavalcanti's volume and striking defense win two rounds. This is the largest single share because seven of her ten card wins are decisions.

Scripted outcomes for Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Michelle Montague — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti win probability
0%
16%
39%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Three of the ten wins on the card are knockouts or technical knockouts, so accumulated standing offence is a secondary stoppage route if the fight stays upright.

  • Seven of the ten wins on the card are decisions. Making the takedown miss and winning the standing minutes is the principal three-round route.

  • She has no published submission wins and a submission-attempt rate of 0. A scramble finish is only a small share.

Michelle Montague win probability
0%
4%
27%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • She has no published knockout wins, so a strike finish is a small residual rather than a featured path.

  • If she completes takedowns and holds through three rounds, a decision is the route the two reviewed UFC wins show.

  • Six of eight career wins are submissions, but both reviewed UFC wins were decisions and the UFC-sample submission rate is 0.00. That rate is not evidence she cannot submit.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Even
R3
Even
R4
Even
R5
Even
—
No observed round chart was published
Not projected
—
Rounds 4 and 5 are not booked
3-round fight
—
No 29-28 or 30-27 card is inferred
Not a score

Model and price

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Michelle Montague

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Michelle Montague

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No market quote is available, so no value edge is claimed. The fair prices of the editorial split are Cavalcanti -133 (1.75 decimal) and Montague +133 (2.33 decimal).

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the win probability. Lean: Jacqueline Cavalcanti.

What backs the lean
  • 5.30 significant strikes per minute against 2.77, and 69% striking defense against 42%, if the fight stays standing.

  • 86% takedown defense is the published obstacle to a wrestling base that shows 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes in a two-fight sample.

  • Seven of Cavalcanti's ten card wins are decisions, which matches a 39% decision share as the main route.

What limits it
  • If Montague completes takedowns and holds, Cavalcanti falls toward 47%. The complementary Montague range is 34–53%.

  • Montague's UFC rates are two fights. Her takedown defense was not published. Cavalcanti's takedown accuracy was too small to publish. The record header (14-1 versus 10-2-0) and the rank header (#12 versus #18) are unresolved conflicts, and the card figures are the ones used.

  • Both already beat Mayra Bueno Silva by decision. That is not a transitive ranking. No market quote and no observed round chart were published.

Final Assessment

Jacqueline Cavalcanti 57% / Michelle Montague 43%. Jacqueline Cavalcanti is the editorial selection. Cavalcanti is estimated at 57% when the published striking volume and 86% takedown defense are treated as the more likely phase over three rounds. Montague retains 43% because completed takedowns and a hold can replace that standing minute with a ride, and six career submission wins keep a finish on the table even though both reviewed UFC wins were decisions. The shared wins over Mayra Bueno Silva are not scored as a transitive advantage.

Method shares: Cavalcanti KO/TKO 16, submission 2, decision 39; Montague KO/TKO 4, submission 12, decision 27. Fair decimal prices are 1.75 and 2.33. Fair American prices are -133 and +133. No market line was reviewed. These are subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Cavalcanti falls toward 47% if Montague completes takedowns and holds; she rises toward 66% if the 86% takedown defense and the volume gap keep it standing. The complementary range for Montague is 34–53%. Conviction is 4/10. The bout is three rounds at 135 lb in a 30-foot cage at ABHA Arena in Doha on November 21, 2026.

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