UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling takes place Saturday, November 21, 2026 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Former light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #4) meets unbeaten Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #7) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds.
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Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos is the three-round featherweight co-main event. Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Asu Almabayev, Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega and Jared Cannonier vs. Ikram Aliskerov complete the five-fight main card.
Odds shown are BetOnline prices where posted, alongside the probability each quote implies. They are not a guarantee of the best price across all books, and lines move before fight night.
Main event
Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 13/13 · Analyses available: 11/13
32-6-1
Model estimate
Market implies 44% · 56%
Updated · Nov 8
11-0-0
Tactical key
Stirling has won every opening round of his UFC career from range behind the jab and body kick, and he wants to counter Procházka's lunging entries the way his teammate Ulberg did in April. Procházka has to survive early with his guard up and drag the unbeaten kickboxer into the third, where he knocked out Hill and Rountree while trailing. Stirling has never faced power like this in the UFC.
26-5-0
Model estimate
Market implies 50% · 50%
Updated · Nov 8
18-1-0
Tactical key
Sterling's case is the Kattar version of his wrestling: body-lock entries from the clinch, long stretches on top, and rounds banked against a young striker who has never had to get up from the bottom in the Octagon. Vallejos lives on the counter to a level change, and both of Sterling's knockout losses came while he was moving forward. Open-distance shots are where this fight flips.
Tactical key
The opening round is Almabayev's window: his best wrestling round, and the only one in which anyone but Demetrious Johnson has taken Horiguchi down in the UFC. If Horiguchi stays upright or gets up fast, the standing minutes after that belong to the karate blitzer, and Almabayev's chain wrestling has stalled against Kape, Nicolau and Perez. The third round is the swing, when Almabayev's control peaks and his submissions arrive.
Tactical key
Hooker wants a kickboxing match behind the jab and teep, taxing the legs and body of a shorter man in his lightweight debut, without shooting into Ortega's front headlock. Ortega does his best work late and from behind, turning a caught kick or broken clinch into a scramble. If Hooker's chin holds so soon after his last knockout, range should carry the cards; a late scramble is how it flips.
Tactical key
Aliskerov's formula is to respect the counter early, change levels behind the jab and body kick, and bank rounds on top of a fading former title challenger who cannot wrestle back. Cannonier has never won a three-round decision at middleweight, so he needs the counter right on the open southpaw line, the shot that started Whittaker's finish of Aliskerov. Every straight-line entry keeps that upset alive.
Tactical key
Luna wants to fight behind a six-inch reach edge, kneeing the body whenever the pressure boxer walks in and wrestling only from a finished body lock. Topuria's path runs through the scrambles: Bryce Mitchell won the scramble off Luna's entry and rode him to a late submission, and Topuria is a black belt nobody in the UFC has held down. Clean clinch exits favor Luna; messy ones favor Topuria.
Tactical key
This is a race to the first clean power shot: Gaziev wants to walk Teixeira to the fence behind feints and the right hand, and Teixeira has been hurt every time a puncher walked him down. Length alone has never beaten Gaziev; counters on the entry and sustained volume have. If the taller man circles off the fence and keeps it busy, the older man's fading chin becomes the story.
Tactical key
Costa owns the early rounds on pace and power, and he has to bank them with combinations rather than the single loaded shots Albazi countered when he knocked him out in their first meeting. Every UFC opponent who has taken Costa down has beaten him, so he has to break each clinch before it reaches the fence. The longer the fight runs, the more it tilts toward Albazi's control game.
Tactical key
Matthews wants a range fight: counter the pawing entries with the straight right and make Tahir shoot from open space into a black belt's front headlock. Tahir has to wrestle early and from the clinch, because Matthews has never beaten an opponent who landed two takedowns on him. Waiting for the third round, as Tahir did in his UFC debut, would leave him behind on the cards.
Tactical key
Motta offers a clear knockout threat but has absorbed substantial offence in his UFC sample. Mar Fan's longer frame and mixed-phase activity give him a way to make the fight less binary, provided his entries and exits do not leave him square to the counter.
Tactical key
Lorenz's two latest wins were both first-round finishes, so the opening minutes are where Nurgozhay is most at risk. If he gets through them without trading on Lorenz's terms, his deeper striking record, his takedown threat and his experience in later rounds take over, while a grappling exchange remains the route that has cost him before.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling: event format, featured matchups and the evidence needed for a prediction.
The Story
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling takes place Saturday, November 21, 2026 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Former light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #4) meets unbeaten Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #7) over 5 rounds. Procházka returns after his knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg for the vacant title at UFC 327 in April. Stirling is 6-0 in the UFC and stopped Jan Błachowicz in August.
Aljamain Sterling (#4) vs. Kevin Vallejos (#9) is the featherweight co-main event, followed on the main card by Kyoji Horiguchi (#5) vs. Asu Almabayev (#7), Dan Hooker (#13) vs. Brian Ortega and Ikram Aliskerov (#13) vs. Jared Cannonier (#11). Six bouts make up the prelims, led by Santiago Luna vs. Aleksandre Topuria. Sousa vs. Zaynukov is off the card, and Cavalcanti vs. Montague moved to UFC 335. Motta vs. Dom Mar Fan and Nurgozhay vs. Lorenz have numerical editorial assessments with method breakdowns. Nurgozhay is 62% in that handicap. Alik Lorenz is listed at 8-2. Tahir Abdullayev is 22-3. Published estimates appear in the fight cards and model-vs-market table. BetOnline has Procházka +120 / Stirling −140 and Sterling −107 / Vallejos −109.
Main Event — Light Heavyweight
01Jiří Procházka vs. Navajo Stirling
Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #4) meets Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #7) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds.
Co-Main — Featherweight
02Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos
Aljamain Sterling (26-5-0, ranked #4) meets Kevin Vallejos (18-1-0, ranked #9) at featherweight over 3 rounds.
Main Card — Flyweight
03Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Asu Almabayev
Kyoji Horiguchi (36-6-0, ranked #5) meets Asu Almabayev (24-3-0, ranked #7) at flyweight over 3 rounds.
Main Card — Lightweight
04Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega
Dan Hooker (24-15-0, ranked #13 at lightweight) meets Brian Ortega (16-5-0, ranked #13 at featherweight) at lightweight over 3 rounds.
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling takes place Saturday, November 21, 2026 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Former light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka (32-6-1, ranked #4) meets unbeaten Navajo Stirling (11-0-0, ranked #7) at light heavyweight over 5 rounds. Twelve bouts are scheduled: five on the main card and seven on the prelims.
The main card starts at 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 21, 2026 on Paramount+. That is 10:00 AM PT, 6:00 PM GMT, 7:00 PM CET and 9:00 PM in Doha. Prelims start at 10:00 AM ET, three hours before the main card. The five-bout main card is headed by Procházka vs. Stirling, with Sterling vs. Vallejos as the co-main event. Broadcast schedules are subject to change.
11 active bouts. Main card: Jiří Procházka vs. Navajo Stirling (light heavyweight, 5 rounds); Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos (featherweight, 3 rounds); Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Asu Almabayev (flyweight, 3 rounds); Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega (lightweight, 3 rounds); Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jared Cannonier (middleweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Santiago Luna vs. Aleksandre Topuria (bantamweight); Shamil Gaziev vs. Tallison Teixeira (heavyweight); Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa (flyweight); Jake Matthews vs. Tahir Abdullayev (welterweight); Nikolas Motta vs. Dom Mar Fan (lightweight); Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Alik Lorenz (light heavyweight). Cancelled: Manoel Sousa vs. Magomed Zaynukov — bout off the card; Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Michelle Montague — moved to UFC 335.
Eleven active bouts have matchup analysis. Nurgozhay vs. Lorenz has an editorial handicap (Nurgozhay 62%), with a method breakdown and explicit uncertainty. Nikolas Motta vs. Dom Mar Fan has a numerical editorial assessment, with a method breakdown and explicit uncertainty. Manoel Sousa vs. Magomed Zaynukov is off the card, and Cavalcanti vs. Montague moved to UFC 335, so those forecasts do not apply here. In the main event the model makes Navajo Stirling a 55% favourite over Jiří Procházka; the strongest lean on the card is Ikram Aliskerov at 68% over Jared Cannonier. BetOnline has Procházka +120 / Stirling −140 and Sterling −107 / Vallejos −109 (November 8). The rest of the board has no BetOnline line.
Jiří Procházka vs. Navajo Stirling is scheduled for five rounds. Every other announced bout is scheduled for three rounds. The order follows the card announced on September 29, 2026, and matchups remain subject to change.
Methodology
No black box. Published probabilities follow the same three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
1. We watch every fight
Recorded UFC performances provide the evidence — strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, damage, pace, and who each fighter has actually faced. No highlight reels, no reputation: just recorded performance.
2. We estimate the matchup
Each analysis weighs styles, cardio, durability and level of competition to describe likely outcomes. The 100-square chart visualizes that probability distribution; the number of squares is not evidence of model accuracy.
3. We compare it to the market
We compare the estimate with sportsbook prices, prioritizing BetOnline. Positive expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available price. Quote age, bookmaker margin and model uncertainty all affect how useful the comparison is.
What the percentages mean
74% next to a fighter means that fighter is estimated to win about 74 out of 100 comparable matchups under the model assumptions. Odds like -425 are the market's price; converting them to an implied percentage lets us compare like-for-like. The 🔴 🟡 🟢 icons tell you how much UFC data we have on each fighter; they do not measure prediction accuracy.
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: Analysis availability is labeled on every fight card. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
Analysis reliability (less experienced fighter):🟢 5+ UFC bouts🟡 3-4 UFC bouts🔴 fewer than 3
| Analysis reliability | Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 | Procházka vs Stirling | Jiří Procházka | 45% | +120 (BetOnline)45.5% implied | Navajo StirlingModel favorite | 55% | -140 (BetOnline)58.3% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJiří Procházka45%45.5%-0.5 ppNavajo Stirling55%58.3%-3.3 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Navajo Stirling. Neither quote offers a meaningful positive gap against our estimate. Recheck prices before betting |
| 🟡 | Sterling vs Vallejos | Aljamain SterlingModel favorite | 58% | -107 (BetOnline)51.7% implied | Kevin Vallejos | 42% | -109 (BetOnline)52.2% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAljamain Sterling58%51.7%+6.3 ppKevin Vallejos42%52.2%-10.2 pp Our read: We favor Aljamain Sterling. The quoted price also offers a positive gap against our estimate. Recheck prices before betting |
| 🟢 | Horiguchi vs Almabayev | Kyoji HoriguchiModel favorite | 58% | —— | Asu Almabayev | 42% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapKyoji Horiguchi58%——Asu Almabayev42%—— Our read: We favor Kyoji Horiguchi. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Hooker vs Ortega | Dan HookerModel favorite | 54% | —— | Brian Ortega | 46% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapDan Hooker54%——Brian Ortega46%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Dan Hooker. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Cannonier vs Aliskerov | Jared Cannonier | 32% | —— | Ikram AliskerovModel favorite | 68% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJared Cannonier32%——Ikram Aliskerov68%—— Our read: We favor Ikram Aliskerov. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🔴 | Luna vs Topuria | Santiago LunaModel favorite | 55% | —— | Aleksandre Topuria | 45% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapSantiago Luna55%——Aleksandre Topuria45%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Santiago Luna. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟡 | Gaziev vs Teixeira | Shamil GazievModel favorite | 55% | —— | Tallison Teixeira | 45% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapShamil Gaziev55%——Tallison Teixeira45%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Shamil Gaziev. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🟢 | Albazi vs Costa | Amir Albazi | 46% | —— | Alessandro CostaModel favorite | 54% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAmir Albazi46%——Alessandro Costa54%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Alessandro Costa. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🔴 | Matthews vs Abdullayev | Jake MatthewsModel favorite | 62% | —— | Tahir Abdullayev | 38% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJake Matthews62%——Tahir Abdullayev38%—— Our read: We favor Jake Matthews. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| 🔴 | Motta vs Fan | Nikolas Motta | 45% | —— | Dom Mar FanAnalyst favorite | 55% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapNikolas Motta45%——Dom Mar Fan55%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Dom Mar Fan. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| 🔴 | Nurgozhay vs Lorenz | Diyar NurgozhayModel favorite | 62% | —— | Alik Lorenz | 38% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapDiyar Nurgozhay62%——Alik Lorenz38%—— Our read: We favor Diyar Nurgozhay. A market price is needed to assess value. |
