Santiago Luna vs Aleksandre Topuria: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Santiago Luna — Bantamweight fighter

Santiago Luna

“BorderBoy”
8W1L
Greco Wrestler-Striker
VS
Aleksandre Topuria — Bantamweight fighter

Aleksandre Topuria

“El Conquistador”
7W1L
Pressure Boxer

Six inches of reach against a black belt nobody has held down.

BantamweightABHA Arena, Doha, QatarNovember 21, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Luna wants to fight behind a six-inch reach edge, kneeing the body whenever the pressure boxer walks in and wrestling only from a finished body lock. Topuria's path runs through the scrambles: Bryce Mitchell won the scramble off Luna's entry and rode him to a late submission, and Topuria is a black belt nobody in the UFC has held down. Clean clinch exits favor Luna; messy ones favor Topuria.

Paths that change the fight

  • Santiago LunaKeep Topuria at the end of a 74-inch reach, knee him to the body every time he closes, and wrestle only from a finished body lock — the Pacheco script, without the Mitchell scrambles.
  • Aleksandre TopuriaTurn Luna's entries into scrambles and win them — the one grappling weakness the Mitchell tape exposed — then take two close rounds on 68% defence and forward pressure.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • Luna was just controlled for 11:40 and submitted by an elite grappler after losing a scramble, and Topuria's black belt and Greco base are the right tools to repeat parts of that.
  • Topuria has allowed 0 of 9 takedowns and one second of control in 30 UFC minutes; all five of Luna's takedowns came against Pacheco.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Santiago Luna

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.82

Aleksandre Topuria

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career records, full UFC bout logs, round-by-round figures and rate lines through June 2026: Luna has 3 UFC bouts (32:40 of Octagon time) and Topuria 2 (30:00). Composite scores, simulations, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Santiago Luna is 22 and coming off the first loss of his life, a late submission after spending most of the fight under Bryce Mitchell. Aleksandre Topuria is the opposite: an older, measured black belt who has won nearly every UFC round he has fought. The question is whether Luna's youth, power and length can keep this a kickboxing match, or whether Topuria can follow Mitchell's path. With both men early in their UFC careers, the swing is which Luna shows up: the one who overwhelmed Angel Pacheco, or the one who spent a fight on his back.

Santiago Luna
Attribute
Aleksandre Topuria
228-year gap
Age
30
5'9"+2" Luna
Height
5'7"
74"+6" Luna
Reach
68"
41.5"+3.5" Luna
Leg Reach
38"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
136.0 lb
Last Weigh-In
135.5 lb
Entram Gym, Tijuana
Team
Topuria Team, Alicante (Climent Club 2012–2025)
Greco-Roman — national champion for Mexico
Combat Base
Boxing, childhood Greco, BJJ black belt (2018)
Sep 13, 2025 (short notice)
Octagon Debut
Feb 8, 2025
3 (2-1)
Octagon Bouts
2 (2-0)
168
Days Since Last Fight
364
5:24 / 12:30
UFC Control For / Against
UFC career totals7:22 / 0:01
Long wrestler-striker — body knees, cage body locks, back takes
Fighting Style
Pressure boxer — jab, overhand right, clinch throws

This is a size mismatch, and the numbers are large for a bantamweight fight. Luna has two inches of height, six of reach and three and a half of leg reach, and Topuria has never faced a UFC opponent with more than an inch of reach on him. His whole UFC game is walking forward behind the jab, so he pays an entry tax on every step. The frames shape the grappling too. Topuria's shorter frame and lower centre of gravity are the classic Greco and body-lock advantage in a clinch; Luna's length lets him frame, knee to the body — 23% of his UFC output went there, much of it knees against Pacheco — and hunt the back from a body lock. There is also an eight-year age gap with an odd inversion: the younger man has more professional cage time, roughly 69 minutes against 54, because Topuria's eleven-year career includes a six-year hiatus and five regional finishes that each ended inside three minutes.

Venue Factor
Topuria has already fought in this building: his November 22, 2025 decision over Bekzat Almakhan came on the previous UFC card in Qatar. For him this is a two-hour time-zone shift from Alicante. For Luna it is an eleven-hour shift from Tijuana, and the prelims start at 10:00 AM ET — 6:00 PM Saturday in Doha, morning on his Tijuana body clock. Luna has never fought outside North America (Tijuana, Long Beach, San Diego, San Antonio, Mexico City, Las Vegas). The travel and body-clock asymmetry is real, but it is a qualitative factor and is not priced as a separate variable.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Santiago Luna celebrates as the referee waves off his knockout of Quang Le at Noche UFC, September 2025

Santiago Luna

Pro Record
8-1-0
UFC Record
2-1 across three bouts since September 2025
Streak
Lost his last — arm-triangle vs Bryce Mitchell (R3 4:52, Jun 2026), his first defeat after an 8-0 start
Finish Rate
88% (7 of 8 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions
Avg Fight Time
10:53
Chin · No UFC knockdowns absorbed — rocked early by Quang LeSOS · RisingLong Greco wrestler-striker

The accelerated prospect. Luna turned pro at 18 in April 2023 and went 6-0 on the regional circuit in 25 months, in Tijuana, Long Beach and San Diego, with six finishes, four of them rear-naked chokes, against opponents who were a combined 17–8–1. The UFC brought him in on less than two weeks' notice at 21. In the debut he was hurt early, steadied, then dropped Quang Le twice on the way to a 2:48 knockout and a Performance of the Night bonus. Five months later he landed 131 significant strikes in fifteen minutes on Angel Pacheco in Mexico City, with knees and hooks to the body, five takedowns from five attempts and 30-27 on all three cards, and called Topuria out in his post-fight interview. Then he accepted Bryce Mitchell as a replacement for Victor Henry roughly nine days out, lost the position in a first-round scramble, spent 11:40 of the fight under a BJJ specialist, and lost the first fight of his life to an arm-triangle with eight seconds left. Three UFC fights in nine months, and the rate line they produce — 4.74 landed per minute, 53% accuracy, 67% defence, 2.30 takedowns per fifteen — is mostly the Pacheco fight.

Aleksandre Topuria punches Colby Thicknesse at UFC 312 in Sydney, February 2025

Aleksandre Topuria

Pro Record
7-1-0
UFC Record
2-0 across two bouts since February 2025
Streak
Five straight wins — Tenório, Ibañez, Segas, Thicknesse, Almakhan
Finish Rate
71% of wins (5 of 7) — 3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
15:00
Chin · Untested in the UFC — no knockdowns either way; TKO loss in 2015SOS · DevelopingPressure boxer with a grappling base

The late-starting brother, and an arc that runs the other way. Topuria was 2-1 by the end of 2015 — two quick submissions, then a third-round TKO loss to Ivo Ivanov, who was making his pro debut — and stepped away for six years. He came back in December 2021 with three first-round TKOs in eighteen months on the Spanish regional scene, over Lucas Tenório, Alberto Ibañez and Johan Segas — opponents who were 7–18–1, 1–9 and 3–1 at the time — and signed with the UFC in August 2024 on a record built almost entirely inside the first three minutes of fights. In the Octagon he has become a different fighter: two clean, low-risk decisions, 30-27 across the board against late replacement Colby Thicknesse at UFC 312 and 30-27, 29-28, 30-27 against Bekzat Almakhan in Qatar. His output barely moved between them — 41 and 47 landed, 38 and 39 absorbed — and nobody has held him down: 0 of 9 takedowns allowed, one second of control conceded. He left Climent Club to run his own team in May 2025, spent 2026 working in Ilia's camps, and arrives 364 days after his last fight. Neither he nor Luna has ever lost a decision.

Santiago Luna
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Aleksandre Topuria
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Santiago Lunasignature weapons

Rear-Naked Choke from the BackGonzález R1 (2:56), Aguillón R2 (4:34), Galindo R1 (2:43), Bayduev R3 (4:41) — all regional, all back-take chokes that needed him to win a position first
×4
Power Punch KO/TKOQuang Le R1 (2:48, two knockdowns, UFC), Desmond Manabat R1 (2:45), Josimar Cuevas R3 (1:17) — 0.92 knockdowns per fifteen in the UFC
×3

Aleksandre Topuriasignature weapons

First-Round Punches TKOLucas Tenório R1 (1:48), Alberto Ibañez R1 (1:54, submission to punches), Johan Segas R1 (1:27) — all regional, the latest in May 2023, against opponents who were 7–18–1, 1–9 and 3–1 at the time; none in the UFC
×3
Early Submission (Armbar, RNC)Andres Chiguano armbar R1 (1:30) and Alejandro Rumin rear-naked choke R1 (2:59), both in 2015 against opponents who were 0–3 and 1–1 — no submission attempt in 30 UFC minutes since
×2

Santiago Luna

L
Bryce Mitchell
Submission — Arm-triangle choke

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (4:52)
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jun 6, 2026, Las Vegas (Mitchell 9-3 in the UFC going in)
W
Angel Pacheco
Decision — Unanimous (30-27 ×3)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Feb 28, 2026, Mexico City (Pacheco 0-1 in the UFC)
W
Quang Le
KO — Punches on the ground (2 knockdowns, Performance of the Night)

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:48)
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025, San Antonio (Le 1-2 in the UFC)
W
Desmond Manabat
KO — Punch

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (2:45)
Tuff-N-Uff 144 — May 22, 2025, San Diego (featherweight; Manabat 4–6 at the time)
W
Magomed Bayduev
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (4:41)
Lights Out Xtreme Fighting 19 — Sep 6, 2024, Long Beach (140-lb catchweight; Bayduev 6–1 at the time)
Pattern

Output follows position, not form — three UFC fights are his whole UFC career, so no trend can be called. In the two fights where he held more control than he conceded (Le and Pacheco: 4:10 for, 0:50 against) he landed 146 and absorbed 68, with both knockdowns and five of five takedowns. In the one he did not (Mitchell: 1:14 for, 11:40 against) he landed 9 and absorbed 22. The within-fight shape is encouraging: against Pacheco his count rose 26 → 56 → 49 while Pacheco's fell 25 → 14 → 17. The Mitchell loss was positional, not physical — both men went 0 of 1 on takedowns in Round 1 yet Mitchell held 4:08 of control, so the position went in a scramble after Luna's own entry; then two Mitchell takedowns in Round 2 and the reversal of Luna's front-headlock attempt into mount in Round 3. He has never been knocked down in the UFC, and after being rocked early by Le he finished him in the same round. Against his two early-career UFC opponents he is +39.0 significant strikes per fight.

Aleksandre Topuria

W
Bekzat Almakhan
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker — Nov 22, 2025, Al Rayyan, Qatar (Almakhan 1-1 in the UFC)
W
Colby Thicknesse
Decision — Unanimous (30-27 ×3)

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 — Feb 8, 2025, Sydney (Thicknesse's late-replacement debut)
W
Johan Segas
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:27)
WOW 9 — May 20, 2023, Madrid (139-lb catchweight; Segas 3–1, inactive since 2020)
W
Alberto Ibañez
TKO — Submission to punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:54)
WAR 1 — Mar 12, 2022, Alicante (Ibañez 1–9 at the time)
W
Lucas Tenório
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:48)
Hombres de Honor 110 — Dec 8, 2021, Ondara (139-lb catchweight; Tenório 7–18–1 at the time)
Pattern

A flat line on two points: 41 then 47 landed, 38 then 39 absorbed, accuracy 52% then 58% — stable, and too short to call rising or declining. Round by round he front-loads (35–25 across the two first rounds, 37–34 across the seconds) and banks the third on control or composure: one landed with 4:11 of control against Thicknesse, 15–14 against Almakhan. Judges gave him 17 of 18 rounds. The thing that moved is his wrestling: 2 takedown attempts against the wrestler, Thicknesse, and 7 against the striker, Almakhan — four of them in the third round, none landed. Defensively nobody has touched his position: Thicknesse shot 8 times and landed none, and opponents have held one second of control on him in 30 minutes. His one moment of trouble was Almakhan's leg kicks in Round 2, and he still won that round on all three cards. The opposition is the caveat: a late-replacement debutant (2-0 in the UFC since) and a 1-1 knockout artist, after regional wins over opponents who were a combined 12–32–1.

Santiago Luna

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Aleksandre Topuria

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Luna: 3 KO/TKOs, 4 submissions and 1 decision in 8 professional wins. Of Luna's 7 finishes, four in round one, one in round two and two in round three. Topuria: 3 KO/TKOs, 2 submissions and 2 decisions in 7 professional wins. All five of Topuria's finishes came in round one. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorSantiagoAleksandre
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Rising — Lost to Bryce Mitchell (13th UFC bout, 9-3 in the UFC going in); beat Quang Le (1-2 in the UFC, opened as the favourite) and Angel Pacheco (0-1, closed +450 to +750). Regional opponents a combined 17–8–1 at the timeDeveloping — Beat Colby Thicknesse, a late-replacement UFC debutant (2-0 in the UFC since), and Bekzat Almakhan, then 1-1 in the UFC and now 1-3. His five regional victims were a combined 12–32–1 at the time
UFC sample2-1 across three bouts since September 20252-0 across two bouts since February 2025
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 1 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsBryce Mitchell, Angel Pacheco, Quang LeBekzat Almakhan, Colby Thicknesse, Johan Segas
  • No prior meeting and no shared opponents: Luna has faced nine pro opponents and Topuria eight, with no overlap. The closest link is a style signal, not a data point: Bryce Mitchell, who submitted Luna with an arm-triangle in June 2026, had lost to the same choke at UFC 282 in December 2022 — to Ilia Topuria, Aleksandre's brother. Aleksandre has never fought Mitchell, so the model gives the connection only indirect weight, through Topuria's 7% submission bucket. The only two-step chain (Almakhan knocked out Brad Katona, who beat Mitchell in a 2018 TUF exhibition) runs through an exhibition bout and carries no weight.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division benchmarks and per-fight evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Santiagofew UFC fights
0
Aleksandrefew UFC fights

~71 against ~63 on the raw formula, ~59 against ~55 once weighted for UFC minutes. Luna lands 4.74 per minute at 53% with 67% defence, 2.76 absorbed and a 1.72 damage ratio — but 131 of his 155 UFC significant strikes came against Pacheco (8.73 per minute that night, 0.61 against Mitchell). Topuria lands 2.93 at 55% with 68% defence and 2.57 absorbed, yet his damage ratio is only 1.14, below the 1.20 bantamweight mean: he out-landed two UFC opponents by 11 strikes combined. The deciding input is range, not rate.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Santiagofew UFC fights
0
Aleksandrefew UFC fights

~61 against ~52. Luna: 2.30 takedowns per fifteen at 71% (5 of 7, all five against Pacheco; 0 of 2 against everyone else), 0.9 submission attempts and four career rear-naked chokes, backed by Greco-Roman national titles — minus 1.5 for a 57% takedown defence and 11:40 of control conceded to Mitchell. Topuria: 1.50 takedowns at 33% (3 of 9), no UFC submission attempt, 0 of 9 takedowns allowed and 7:22 of control against one second conceded — plus 1.5 for a BJJ black belt the rate line cannot see. The control ledger is not in the formula, which is why the model shades the split below what this gap implies.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Santiagofew UFC fights
0.0
Aleksandrefew UFC fights

~60 against ~53.5. Luna leads both halves after shrinkage — the striking edge from reach, power and a body attack, the grappling edge from wrestling volume and conversion. Both leads are smaller than the raw formula suggests, and both lean heavily on the one Pacheco fight.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · late-round output · full 15-minute fights

0
Santiagofew UFC fights
0
Aleksandrefew UFC fights

~70 against ~64. Luna has two full or near-full fifteen-minute UFC fights, threw a flying knee late in the third after holding a 43.7-per-round pace against Pacheco, and produced his most urgent offence in the third against Mitchell after two rounds carrying a grappler's weight — at 22. Topuria kept his pressure through two full fifteen-minute fights, but at ~15 significant strikes a round the tank has never been tested by a high-output fight; he is 30 and returns after 364 days. Luna's caveats: the Mitchell finish came in the final ten seconds, and he fights eleven time zones from home, in a slot that is morning on his body clock.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Santiagofew UFC fights
0.0
Aleksandrefew UFC fights

~65 against ~58.75, a gap of about 6.25 points. Between two established fighters a gap that size would map to roughly 60/40. The model shades it to 55/45 because both men have only 30–33 UFC minutes, Luna's line is built mostly on one lopsided fight against a heavy underdog, and the composites do not see the control ledger: Topuria 7:22 of control for and 0:01 against, Luna 5:24 for and 12:30 against.

MetricSantiagoAleksandre
Avg Fight Time10:53 (3 UFC bouts)few UFC fights15:00 (both went the distance)few UFC fights
Pace TierBimodal — 4.74 SLpM, 85% of it vs Pachecofew UFC fightsLow and steady — 2.93 SLpMfew UFC fights
Output per 5 min (by fight)3.0 to 43.7 sig — depends on who is on topfew UFC fights13.7 to 15.7 sig — same against both opponentsfew UFC fights
Round 3 EvidenceBest round vs Mitchell; regional RNC at R3 4:41; tapped at R3 4:52few UFC fightsWon R3 on all six UFC scorecards; stopped in R3 in 2015few UFC fights
UFC Control For / Against5:24 / 12:30 (11:40 to Mitchell)few UFC fights7:22 / 0:01few UFC fights
Fights in Last 3 Years6 — 168 days since the last2 — 364 days since the last

Archetype Base Rate

Greco Wrestler-Striker 55%45% Pressure Boxer / BJJ Black Belt

Model line, no archetype prior applied · No historical archetype win rate is applied to this pairing. The 55 shown is the model's own line — a composite gap of ~6.25 points that would map to roughly 60/40 between established fighters, shaded to 55/45 because both men have only 30–33 UFC minutes, Luna's rate line is 85% one fight, and the control ledger favours Topuria.

Santiago LunaAleksandre Topuria

Bantamweight

· 52 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatSantiagoSantiago comparisonDiv avgAleksandre comparisonAleksandre
SLpM4.74
+0.29 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.45
-1.52 vs avgfew UFC fights
2.93
Str Acc53%
+6.80 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
46.2%
+8.80 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
55%
Str Def67%
+13.30 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
53.7%
+14.30 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
68%
SApM2.76
-1.43 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.19
-1.62 vs avgfew UFC fights
2.57
KD Avg0.92
+0.50 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.42
-0.42 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
Damage Ratio1.72
+0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.20
-0.06 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.14
TD/152.30
+0.81 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.49
+0.01 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.50
TD Acc71% (5 of 7)
—few UFC fights
—
—few UFC fights
33% (3 of 9)
TD Def57% (3 of 7 conceded)
—few UFC fights
—
—few UFC fights
100% (0 of 9 allowed)
Control For / Against5:24 / 12:30
—few UFC fights
—
—few UFC fights
7:22 / 0:01
Sub/150.90
+0.39 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.51
-0.51 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
Avg Fight Time10:53
—
—
—
15:00
Statistical Verdict
Almost every size, power, volume, finishing and schedule marker belongs to Luna. The efficiency, takedown-defence, control and positional-safety markers belong to Topuria. Striking defence — the stat that usually decides who wins the standing minutes — is a dead heat at 67% against 68%, both well above the 53.7% bantamweight mean. The fight reduces to one measurable, and it is closer than the rate line says: Luna completes 2.30 takedowns per fifteen at 71%, but all five came against Pacheco; Topuria has allowed 0 of 9 and has been controlled for one second in 30 minutes. If Luna's wrestling works anyway, he chooses where the fight takes place. If Topuria's grappling turns it around the way Mitchell's did, the rate line flips.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Santiago Luna

  • Read him by fight, not by round: 15–12 against Le (2:48), 26–25, 56–14 and 49–17 against Pacheco, 3–11, 3–9 and 3–2 against Mitchell. The R2 and R3 averages are mostly the Pacheco fight, where his output climbed after an even first round.
  • Both of his UFC knockdowns came in Round 1 against Quang Le — the only knockdowns in either man's UFC log — and four of his seven career finishes came in the first round, all inside 2:56.
  • Against Mitchell he lost the position in Round 1 without a credited takedown either way (Mitchell 4:08 of control), conceded two takedowns and 3:41 in Round 2, and had his front-headlock attempt reversed into mount in Round 3 — 11:40 of control against him in all.

Aleksandre Topuria

  • Front-loaded: 18 and 22 landed in the first two rounds against Thicknesse, then 1 in the third while holding 4:11 of control; 17, 15 and 15 against Almakhan. That third round explains the low R3 strike average and the high R3 control figure.
  • His three UFC takedowns came in Rounds 1 and 2, the two clearest of them from the clinch (a suplex on Thicknesse, a throw to mount on Almakhan). He went 0 of 4 on takedowns in the Almakhan third round and has not attempted a submission in 30 UFC minutes.
  • Nobody has held him down: Thicknesse shot 8 times (3, 3 and 2 by round) and landed none, and opponents have one second of control on him in six rounds. His one documented moment of trouble was Almakhan's leg kicks in Round 2 — and he still won that round on all three cards.
Critical Insight
Luna's output depends on who is on top: 146 landed against 68 absorbed in the two fights where he won the control battle, 9 against 22 in the one he lost. Topuria's depends on nothing much: 13.7 to 15.7 per five minutes in both fights, with the third round used to bank control when he is ahead. So the question for this fight is not how much Luna throws but who wins the first grappling exchange. If Luna stays upright or ends up on top, his Pacheco numbers are the right reference. If a Luna entry turns into a scramble he loses, his Mitchell numbers apply, and Topuria — who has never been held down — is the man most likely to be on top.

Strike targeting

Santiago

Head
73%
Body
23%
Legs
4%

Aleksandre

Head
71%
Body
23%
Legs
6%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

SantiagoAleksandre
78%Distance90%
17%Clinch7%
5%Ground3%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceSantiago owns it

+6" reach and +3.5" leg reach against a 2.93-SLpM pressure boxer who has to close distance to score

Pocket / ExchangesSantiago owns it

Two UFC knockdowns and 0.92 KD/15 against 68% defence and the overhand right that rocked Thicknesse; striking defence is 67% vs 68%

ClinchEven

Greco against Greco: body locks and 17% clinch striking against a suplex and a throw to mount — the exchange that decides the fight

GroundAleksandre owns it

Luna's takedowns all came against Pacheco and his four RNC wins are regional; the Mitchell tape shows a lost scramble and 11:40 controlled, now against a BJJ black belt who has conceded one second of control

The Deep Read

Santiago Luna's aggregate line — 4.74 significant strikes a minute, 53% accuracy, 2.30 takedowns per fifteen — reads like a top-15 bantamweight's. It is not a representative one. 131 of his 155 UFC significant strikes and all five of his takedowns came against Angel Pacheco, priced at +450 to +750 at the close. Take that fight out and he has 24 landed and 34 absorbed in 17:40. The Le fight showed power and composure after being hurt; the Mitchell fight showed a grappling hole against an elite specialist; the Pacheco fight showed what he looks like when nobody can stop his entries. Aleksandre Topuria is neither Pacheco nor Mitchell, which is why the model discounts Luna's line harder than Topuria's steady two-fight record.

The Mitchell loss is the most informative fight either man has had in the UFC, and it has to be read carefully. It proves that a BJJ specialist can win the scramble after Luna's wrestling entries — both men were 0 of 1 on takedowns in Round 1, yet Mitchell banked 4:08 of control — hold him down for 11:40 of 14:52, and punish him when he attacks the neck. It does not prove a weak chin — nobody has knocked him down in the UFC — or failing cardio, since he won Round 3 on the count, or that anyone can outwrestle him: he took the fight on about nine days' notice against a thirteen-fight UFC veteran who was 9-3 in the UFC going in, and the market moved him from +210 to near pick'em. One echo, and no more: Mitchell had lost to the same arm-triangle at UFC 282 in 2022, to Ilia Topuria — not a common opponent, but a description of the room Aleksandre trains in.

This is less a wrestler-against-striker fight than the labels suggest, because both men came up in Greco-Roman wrestling. The UFC numbers separate them on offence — Luna 71% (5 of 7), Topuria 33% (3 of 9) — but the records are opposite in character. Luna's five takedowns all came against Pacheco; he missed his only attempts against Le and Mitchell. Topuria's two clearest takedowns were a suplex and a throw, his six misses came against two opponents who defended competently, and on defence he is 9 for 9 with one second of control conceded. Luna has said he is sure Topuria will not take him down, and the rate line agrees. The real risk to him is not a Topuria takedown; it is a Topuria reversal. His grappling has failed in the transition, not in the initial exchange — which is why the model gives Topuria a 7% submission share despite zero UFC submission attempts, and Luna only 11% despite four career rear-naked chokes.

Three things sit outside the numbers and are not priced as separate variables. Topuria returns after 364 days, his third-longest layoff, a gap tied to his role in Ilia's training camps; he has won after both longer ones, but against a 7–18–1 journeyman and a UFC debutant. The surname is not evidence: Aleksandre is a 5'7" bantamweight with 2.93 SLpM and no UFC knockdowns — a point Luna, who called him out after the Pacheco win, has made himself. And the trip is lopsided: Tijuana to Doha is an eleven-hour shift for a 6:00 PM local prelim start, while Alicante is two hours away and Topuria has already fought in this building.

Path to Victory

Santiago Luna

Keep Topuria at the end of a 74-inch reach, knee him to the body every time he closes, and wrestle only from a finished body lock — the Pacheco script, without the Mitchell scrambles.

Why they win
01
Six inches of reach against a forward walker

74" of reach and 41.5" of leg reach against 68" and 38". Topuria's pressure boxing has never had to close this much distance in the UFC, and every step in pays an entry tax.

02
The only UFC-proven power in the fight

Two knockdowns and a knockout in 2:48 against Quang Le, and 0.92 knockdowns per fifteen minutes — more than double the 0.42 bantamweight mean. Topuria has zero UFC knockdowns.

03
Better striking against comparable opposition

Against early-career UFC opponents Luna is +39.0 significant strikes per fight (+4.38 a minute); Topuria is +5.5 (+0.37). Pacheco supplies most of Luna's margin, but Topuria has never out-landed anyone by more than 8.

04
A body attack built for a pressure fighter

23% of his significant strikes go to the body and 17% are thrown in the clinch — the knees and hooks he opened the Pacheco fight with, aimed at a man who has to walk into them.

05
Youth, activity and the harder schedule

22 against 30, six fights in three years against two, 168 days out against 364. His regional opponents were a combined 17–8–1 at the time, Topuria's regional victims 12–32–1, and money moved toward him in all three UFC bookings.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Use the reach first

    Long jab, long straight, front kick to the body. Make Topuria pay to reach the pocket, because his output depends on getting there.

  2. 2
    Knee the body when he arrives

    The Pacheco blueprint: hooks and knees to the midsection from the first exchange. 23% of his UFC output already goes there.

  3. 3
    Wrestle only from a dominant tie-up

    Body locks against the fence, not speculative shots into a scramble. Finish the takedown or disengage — the Mitchell tape shows what happens in between.

  4. 4
    Stay off the front headlock

    Unless it is a clean, finishing grip. Against Mitchell that attempt gave up mount in the round he was winning.

  5. 5
    Protect the chin early

    He has already been rocked once in Round 1 of a UFC fight, and Topuria's overhand right is the one punch in his UFC tape that has hurt anyone.

Path to Victory

Aleksandre Topuria

Turn Luna's entries into scrambles and win them — the one grappling weakness the Mitchell tape exposed — then take two close rounds on 68% defence and forward pressure.

Why they win
01
A grappling pedigree the rate line cannot see

A BJJ black belt since 2018, a childhood Greco base and years in the Topuria/Climent grappling room — against a man who was just controlled for 11:40 and submitted by a BJJ specialist.

02
Striking defence that matches Luna's

68% against 67%, both about fourteen points above the 53.7% bantamweight mean, with 55% accuracy and a per-round output that did not change between two opponents.

03
Nobody has held him down

0 of 9 takedowns allowed and one second of control conceded in 30 UFC minutes, while holding 7:22 himself. Eight of the nine attempts came from a 2-of-28 shooter, so it is tested for volume rather than quality — but it has never broken.

04
Clinch throws

A suplex on Thicknesse and a throw to mount on Almakhan, both from the clinch in Round 1 — exactly the positions where Luna's wrestling entries went wrong against Mitchell.

05
Venue, travel and composure

He has already fought in this building and faces a two-hour time shift against Luna's eleven. The judges have given him 17 of 18 UFC rounds, including the third on all six cards.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Close the distance behind the jab

    Pressure and cut the cage to take away six inches of reach. His whole UFC game runs through the pocket.

  2. 2
    Invite the wrestling and punish it

    Scramble for top position, go to the back, make it a BJJ exchange. It attacks the one grappling weakness Luna has shown on tape.

  3. 3
    Throw from the clinch

    His two clearest UFC takedowns — the suplex on Thicknesse and the throw to mount on Almakhan — came from the clinch. Against a Greco specialist the underhook battle is even, and a clean throw is worth a round.

  4. 4
    Protect the body

    Luna's knees and hooks to the midsection are his main scoring tool, and a forward-walking boxer is exactly the target they were built for.

  5. 5
    Win the rounds on efficiency

    He does not need more strikes than Luna; he needs Luna to miss. If the pressure is costing him, fight at mid-range with jabs and leg kicks — the one tool that ever troubled him, and one Luna has not been tested against.

Danger Zone

How Santiago Luna loses

  • The Mitchell loop repeats: his first body-lock attempt at the fence becomes a scramble, Topuria comes out on top or behind him, and Luna spends two rounds carrying a black belt's weight and landing three strikes a round.

  • He walks into the overhand right. Quang Le rocked him early in his debut, and Topuria's best UFC moment was the same punch landing on Thicknesse in Round 1.

  • The front headlock backfires again when Topuria changes levels, a black belt stays calm and ends up on top, and a close fight becomes a decision loss or a late choke — eleven time zones from home, in a slot that is morning on his body clock, with the pace he needs flattened by jet lag.

Danger Zone

How Aleksandre Topuria loses

  • He cannot reach Luna. Kept at the end of a 74-inch reach and kneed to the body every time he closes, he loses two rounds 43-to-15 on significant strikes — the Pacheco script.

  • He is taken down and his back is taken: a Greco national champion finishes the body lock, and a man with four rear-naked choke wins gets his hooks in.

  • The chin question his UFC tape has never been asked gets answered. After a year out spent coaching rather than competing, he walks forward into the only UFC-proven power in the fight and a 0.92 knockdown rate does the rest.

The positional record behind the 100%

Nobody Has Held Topuria Down

Topuria has allowed 0 of 9 takedowns — Thicknesse 0 of 8, Almakhan 0 of 1 — and conceded one second of control in 30 UFC minutes, while holding 7:22 himself. His takedown defence has been tested for volume, if not for quality: Thicknesse is 2 of 28 on UFC takedowns.

0:01
of control conceded in 30 UFC minutes (0 of 9 takedowns allowed)
The Pacheco distortion reaches the takedowns too

Luna's Wrestling Is One Fight Deep

All five of Luna's UFC takedowns and 131 of his 155 significant strikes came against Angel Pacheco, who was 0-1 in the UFC. Against Le and Mitchell he is 0 of 2 on takedowns and lands 1.36 significant strikes a minute. The 71% accuracy and the Greco titles are real, but he has yet to put a competent defender down in the UFC.

5 of 5 · 0 of 2
Luna's takedowns against Pacheco · against everyone else
Lost in the scramble, not the shot

The Mitchell Tape, Measured

Mitchell held 4:08, 3:41 and 3:51 of control — 11:40 of 14:52. In Round 1 both men were 0 of 1 on takedowns, so Mitchell won the position in the scramble after Luna's entry. That is the pattern a BJJ black belt who has never been held down is built to repeat. What it does not show: a weak chin (22 strikes absorbed, no knockdowns) or a fade (Luna won Round 3 on the count).

11:40
of control Mitchell held over Luna — 78% of the fight
Opponents' records at the time

The Schedule Gap Runs Deeper Than the UFC

Topuria's five regional wins, all first-round finishes, came against opponents who were a combined 12–32–1 — Tenório 7–18–1, Ibañez 1–9, Chiguano 0–3 — and his one loss came against a pro debutant. Luna's six regional opponents were 17–8–1, the best of them Bayduev (6–1), choked at 4:41 of Round 3. In the UFC, Luna's opponents were 10-6 going in; Topuria's 1-1.

17–8–1 vs 12–32–1
regional opponents' combined records at the time
Both men are 2-0 against early-career UFC opponents

Like-for-Like, Luna Out-Lands

Against opponents with three or fewer prior UFC bouts, Luna is +78 significant strikes in 17:48 and Topuria +11 in 30:00, and Topuria has never out-landed anyone by more than 8. Pacheco supplies 75 of Luna's 78, so the honest reading is one blowout plus a knockout — but Topuria's wins are scorecard wins built on composure, 17 of 18 judge-rounds, not on out-striking anyone.

+39.0 vs +5.5
sig-strike differential per fight vs early-career UFC opponents

The Five-Round Clock

Santiago Luna danger windowAleksandre Topuria danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Luna's finishing window

Four of Luna's seven career finishes and both UFC knockdowns came in a first round, and this is where the first clinch decides who controls the fight — Mitchell won it in a scramble with no credited takedown. Topuria's danger here is real but narrower: the overhand right that rocked Thicknesse, against a man Le rocked early. Model: 12% of fights end in R1, 9 of those 12 for Luna.

Critical Insight
Luna's equity is front-loaded on the knockout and back-loaded on the choke; Topuria's is concentrated on the scorecards. Topuria has not finished anyone in eleven years of second and third rounds, and 29 of his 45 win-share points are decisions, so he needs all three rounds to be scored. Luna has 26 points of finishing equity, spread across the fight. The clock favours whoever wins the first clinch: if it is Luna, every minute adds knockout, submission and scoring chances for him; if it is Topuria, every minute is another minute of a Mitchell-like pattern Luna has not yet shown he can solve.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Luna has the physical, finishing and schedule facts: +6" reach, eight years of youth, the only UFC knockdowns in the matchup, and regional opponents who were 17–8–1 to Topuria's 12–32–1. But 85% of his UFC significant strikes and all five of his takedowns came in one fight, against Angel Pacheco.

2

Topuria's case is Luna's June loss. Bryce Mitchell won the scramble after Luna's entry, controlled him for 11:40 and submitted him at 4:52 of Round 3 — and Topuria is a BJJ black belt who has allowed 0 of 9 takedowns and one second of control in 30 UFC minutes.

3

Model: Luna 55% / Topuria 45%, conviction 3/10 — capped because the two men have three and two UFC bouts. No line has been posted yet; the model's fair prices are Luna −122 and Topuria +122.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Luna Decision — 29%Luna KO/TKO — 15%Luna Submission — 11%Topuria Decision — 29%Topuria KO/TKO — 9%Topuria Submission — 7%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Santiago Luna gold · Aleksandre Topuria orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The first-clinch battle

Luna's 71% takedown accuracy — all five completions against Pacheco — and Greco body lock against Topuria's 0 of 9 takedowns allowed, one second of control conceded and clinch throws. This is the variable that moves the outcome most, and the control record tilts it toward Topuria: whoever wins it decides whether Luna's Pacheco numbers or his Mitchell numbers apply.

Range against pressure

+6" of reach and +3.5" of leg reach against a 2.93-SLpM pressure boxer who has never faced a UFC opponent with more than an inch of reach on him. It drives most of Luna's 29-point decision bucket.

The power gap

Two UFC knockdowns for Luna, none for Topuria, and neither man ever knocked down in the Octagon. Luna's 15-point KO/TKO bucket is weighted toward Round 1, where 7 of the 15 land; Topuria's regional stoppages came against opponents with losing records.

Scramble risk

Luna's Mitchell tape — the position lost in a Round-1 scramble with no credited takedown, 11:40 controlled, back and neck exposed — against a BJJ black belt with zero UFC submission attempts. It is why Topuria's submission share rises to 7% and Luna's own is held to 11%.

Schedule, activity and the one-fight line

85% of Luna's UFC strike output came in one fight against a +450 to +750 underdog, which keeps the ~6.25-point composite gap well short of 60/40. Against that, his opponents were tougher at every level (17–8–1 regionally against 12–32–1; 10-6 in the UFC against 1-1), and he has fought six times in three years to Topuria's two. The line lands at 55/45.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Reach Decision

Luna jabs and front-kicks Topuria at the end of a 74-inch reach, knees him to the body every time he closes, and wins the clinch exchanges from a Greco body lock rather than from speculative shots. No scrambles, and two or three rounds banked — the Pacheco script against a better opponent, tied with Topuria's decision as the largest outcome on the board.

Scripted outcomes for Santiago Luna vs Aleksandre Topuria — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Santiago Luna win probability
0%
15%
29%
11%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Fifteen points for the only UFC-proven power in the fight: two knockdowns and a knockout in 2:48 against Quang Le, and 0.92 knockdowns per fifteen minutes against a 0.42 division mean. Weighted toward Round 1 (7 of the 15, then 5 in R2 and 3 in R3), against a man with no UFC knockdown history either way.

  • 29 points, tied with Topuria's decision bucket: range, body work and the odd completed takedown winning two or three rounds without a finish. It is held at 29 because all five of his UFC takedowns came against Pacheco and Topuria has never been held down.

  • Eleven points from four career rear-naked chokes and a proven late gear (R3 4:41 against Bayduev), discounted because every one of those chokes needed him to win a position first — against a BJJ black belt who has conceded one second of UFC control. Split 2 / 4 / 5 across the three rounds.

Aleksandre Topuria win probability
0%
9%
29%
7%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Nine points, deliberately low. His three KO/TKO wins are regional, all under two minutes, the latest in May 2023, against opponents who were 7–18–1, 1–9 and 3–1, and he has no UFC knockdowns in 30 minutes. The live version is the overhand right that rocked Thicknesse catching Luna early, as Le did. Split 2 / 4 / 3 by round.

  • 29 points, nearly two thirds of his equity: the Thicknesse and Almakhan script. Walk forward, make Luna miss, throw once from the clinch, bank control, and win close rounds on pressure, defence and Luna's wrestling going nowhere — 17 of 18 UFC judge-rounds so far. He needs all three rounds to be scored.

  • Seven points for a BJJ black belt and Luna's shown vulnerability in scrambles — 11:40 of control conceded to Mitchell, the position lost without a credited takedown — while respecting that he has not attempted a single submission in the UFC. Split 1 / 3 / 3 across the three rounds.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Santiago
R2
Even
R3
Aleksandre
29-28 Luna
Range and power bank the first round and one of the next two; Topuria's pressure and composure take the other
Joint-modal card if it goes the distance (Luna decision 29%)
29-28 Topuria
Efficiency, forward pressure and control time take two close rounds, the third among them
Equally likely — the shape of both of his UFC wins, and 29 of his 45 win-share points are decisions
30-27 Luna
The Pacheco script: range, body work and his output climbing round by round
Live if Luna wins the first clinch exchanges cleanly

Model and price

Santiago Luna

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Aleksandre Topuria

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Santiago Luna

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Aleksandre Topuria

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Conditional until a line opens. The model supports Luna on the moneyline at any price longer than −122; if opening lines lean on the Topuria name and make Luna an underdog, Luna at +100 or longer (50% implied or less) would be at least a 5-point edge over the model's 55%. Luna inside the distance (model 26%, fair +285) is the higher-variance version — it needs his UFC-proven power or his back-take game to work only once. On the Topuria side the only bucket with real density is Topuria by decision (model 29%, fair +245), the shape of both of his UFC wins. Avoid Topuria by KO/TKO at anything shorter than about +1000: it is a 9% event from a man with no UFC knockdowns whose regional stoppages came against losing records, and the market's likeliest overreach on the name. Other model fair prices: fight goes the distance 58% (−138), ends in R1 12% (+733), R2 16% (+525), R3 14% (+614). Re-check against real prices once the fight is posted.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean toward Luna on size, power, schedule and trajectory, capped by experience: Topuria has two UFC bouts and Luna three, and Luna's rate line is 85% one fight. The main risk to the lean is Topuria's grappling — a black belt nobody has held down — set against the exact weakness the Mitchell fight exposed. Lean: Santiago Luna.

What backs the lean

  • +6" reach, +3.5" leg reach and +2" height against a pressure boxer who has never faced a UFC opponent with more than an inch of reach on him.

  • The only UFC knockdowns in the matchup (2) and 0.92 knockdowns per fifteen, more than twice the bantamweight mean.

  • Better striking against comparable opposition: +39.0 significant strikes per fight against early-career UFC opponents, to Topuria's +5.5.

  • 22 against 30, six fights in three years against two, and the harder schedule at every level — Mitchell is the best opponent either man has faced, and his regional opponents were 17–8–1 to Topuria's 12–32–1.

What limits it

  • Luna was just controlled for 11:40 and submitted by an elite grappler after losing a scramble, and Topuria's black belt and Greco base are the right tools to repeat parts of that.

  • Topuria has allowed 0 of 9 takedowns and one second of control in 30 UFC minutes; all five of Luna's takedowns came against Pacheco.

  • Striking defence is a dead heat (68% vs 67%), and Topuria has won 17 of 18 UFC judge-rounds on a five-fight win streak.

  • Luna's line is inflated — without Pacheco he has a negative UFC strike differential — and he travels eleven time zones for a 6:00 PM local prelim start in a building Topuria has already fought in.

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 simulations, Santiago Luna makes the reach gap the story. He jabs and front-kicks Topuria at the end of a 74-inch reach, knees him to the body every time he closes, and wins the clinch exchanges from a Greco body lock rather than from speculative shots. Most often that adds up to a clear decision on range, body work and the odd completed takedown (29%). Sometimes the punch that dropped Quang Le twice lands on a man walking forward, most likely in the first round (15%). Sometimes a body lock at the fence turns into a back take and a rear-naked choke (11%). It is the most likely path because it rests on physical facts that do not change — reach and age — plus the only UFC-proven power in the fight and a harder schedule at every level.

In the other 45, Aleksandre Topuria shows that the Mitchell fight told us something. The most common version is the one his UFC tape already shows: he walks forward, makes the younger man miss at 68% defence, throws him once from the clinch, stops or reverses every entry, banks control time and takes two close rounds on pressure and composure (29%, the same size as Luna's decision bucket). The less likely versions use what the UFC has not yet seen from him: the overhand right that rocked Thicknesse landing on a man who was rocked in his own debut (9%), or a black belt winning a scramble and taking the back or neck that Luna left exposed in June (7%).

The data give Luna the reach, the age, the power, the activity and the harder résumé. They give Topuria the matching striking defence, a takedown-defence and control record nobody has dented, the grappling pedigree and the one tape — Mitchell's — that shows how Luna loses. The lean is narrow because Luna's wrestling is one fight deep and Topuria's positional safety is real. On November 21 in Doha the model still takes Santiago Luna, narrowly and with low conviction, on physical advantages that do not depend on a handful of fights, and treats Topuria's grappling as the biggest open question on either side. Three out of ten, and the first clinch is the sequence to watch.

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