Sterling's last two wins were five-round fights. He won all 25 of Ortega's minutes on the cards and dropped only Round 3 against Zalal before winning Round 4 in a rout. The format split in his UFC record is telling: in three-round fights he is 12-4, in five-round fights 6-1. All three of his decision losses (Caraway and Assunção by split decision, Evloev unanimously) came in three-round fights, and he is 4-0 in five-round decisions. A grind works better with more time to accumulate. Across twenty-five minutes one lost round is absorbed; across fifteen it is a third of the fight. This booking is Sterling's first three-rounder since December 2024, and his first since then against a man whose best shot comes early.
The single most important technical exchange is Sterling's entry against Vallejos's counter. Sterling's first knockout loss was a knee from Marlon Moraes at 1:07 of Round 1; Vallejos's latest finish was knees and punches on Josh Emmett. Most of Sterling's takedowns come from the clinch rather than open-distance shots, and that is the right entry against this opponent, because a body lock off a combination gives Vallejos no room for a knee. The danger is the second and third attempt, if Vallejos stuffs the clinch entries and Sterling reaches for a shot from farther out. If his entries stay clinch-based, the knockout branch shrinks. If he starts shooting from open distance, it opens up.
Vallejos's UFC and Contender Series opponents were SeungWoo Choi, Danny Silva, Giga Chikadze, Josh Emmett, Cam Teague and Jean Silva: strikers, every one. His 84% takedown defense rests on about thirteen attempts in 45 minutes; nine of his ten UFC attempts faced came from Danny Silva, who landed one, and Sterling attempted thirteen against Kattar alone. The honest statement is not that the defense is poor. It is untested, and Sterling is the most accomplished wrestler he will have faced by a wide margin. That uncertainty is the main reason Sterling is favored and the main reason conviction is capped: an untested number can break either way, and a strong, fresh 24-year-old who sprawls and gets up is a real possibility.
Each man's strongest weapon is aimed at the other's untested weakness. Sterling was knocked down in four UFC fights between 2017 and 2023, all at bantamweight; at featherweight, absorbing 1.33 significant strikes a minute, he has not been dropped in 80 minutes. But he has not faced a featherweight with Vallejos's power, just as Vallejos has not faced one with Sterling's wrestling. Against a younger, more powerful striker, expect the Kattar version of Sterling: early wrestling and as little standing as possible.