The numbers say two different fights are possible. On the feet, Gane is one of the hardest heavyweights to hit in the UFC: 2.31 significant strikes absorbed per minute, out-landing his opponent in 34 of 39 rounds, one knockdown absorbed in 14 fights. On the mat, the record is different. Opponents have landed 9 of 17 takedowns on him, and they came from exactly the three men who gave him his hardest nights: Ngannou (four, in the title fight he lost), Jones (two, before the guillotine) and Volkov in 2024 (three, in a split decision).
Hokit's record says he can do both. Against Lewis he wrestled first — two takedowns, 3:01 of control, 30 ground strikes in round one — and finished standing in round two. Against Blaydes, the better wrestler, he could not take him down and won a fifteen-minute kickboxing fight with a huge third round instead. That version got hit 174 times. Against a striker with 81 inches of reach who lands 62% of his shots, the boxing version of Hokit is the one Gane wants to see.
So the fight turns on round one. Hokit's first rounds average 104 seconds of control and his wins mostly end early: six of his ten wins came in round one. Gane's opponents have always had the most success early too, since Gane is at his most active in rounds two and three. If Hokit lands a takedown and holds it in the first five minutes, the Lewis path is open. If the first round ends standing, every trend favours the champion.