Championship reach against a 10-0 wrestler who just stopped Lewis.
Fight overview
Eight inches of reach and 2.31 absorbed against 5.28 keep Gane favored in a 30-foot cage. Hokit's live number is 3.73 takedowns per 15 into Gane's 47% takedown defence — the Blaydes blueprint, not a kickboxing fight.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Rate lines were compiled September 22, 2026 (Gane 14-2-0 with 1 NC; Hokit 10-0-0, reach 73" — an older listing still printed 73.5"). Card ranks #2 and #10 are the announced sheet; an older listing showed Hokit at #4. UFC bout counts 14 and 4. Per-round strike tables omitted. BetOnline Gane −280 / Hokit +232 captured September 22, 2026. Fair American from the 64/36 split: Gane −178, Hokit +178. Projections are editorial.
Model methodologyWhat this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
Five-round bout booked for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Ciryl Gane (14-2, card rank #2, age 36) is 6'4" with an 81-inch reach. He is the interim heavyweight title holder after a Round-2 stoppage of Alex Pereira on June 14, 2026. This page does not assign a defending-champion label. His rate line is 5.40 SLpM, 61% accuracy, 60% striking defence, 2.31 SApM, 0.66 TD/15, 23% takedown accuracy, 47% takedown defence and 0.6 Sub/15. Josh Hokit (10-0, card rank #10, fight-night age 29) stopped Derrick Lewis on the same June 14 card and decisioned Curtis Blaydes on April 11, 2026. His rate line is 9.29 SLpM, 64% accuracy, 48% defence, 5.28 SApM, 3.73 TD/15, 47% takedown accuracy, 77% takedown defence and 1.24 knockdowns per 15, on four UFC bouts. Editorial read: Gane 64%, Hokit 36%, conviction 6 out of 10.
Gane is +3" in height and +8" in reach on the compiled measurements (an older listing still printed Hokit at 73.5"; this page uses 73"). Hokit has a one-inch leg-reach edge. On November 14 he is 29 (born November 12, 1997), seven years younger than Gane. Both are orthodox. Gane has 14 UFC bouts. Hokit has 4 (Gimenis, Freeman, Blaydes, Lewis). Contender Series is excluded. The pair is a medium UFC sample because Hokit is under five Octagon bouts.
Venue FactorMadison Square Garden uses the 30-foot Octagon. That extra space is Gane's friend. A long Muay Thai game has more lane to exit than it does in the APEX. Hokit's wrestling has to cover more ground to turn this into the Blaydes fight.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
Gane's log includes the Ngannou unanimous decision loss (January 22, 2022), the Jones guillotine loss (March 4, 2023), the Volkov split decision (December 7, 2024), the Aspinall no-contest after an eye poke (October 25, 2025), and the Pereira stoppage (June 14, 2026). He has been in championship fights and he has been finished and outpointed. He has also just stopped a former champion. An older listing still saying "six wins by KO" and "perfect 8-0" for Hokit is behind; this page uses 7 KO for Gane and 10-0 for Hokit.
UFC log: Max Gimenis (TKO, R1 0:56, November 8, 2025), Denzel Freeman (TKO, R1 4:59, January 24, 2026), Curtis Blaydes (unanimous decision, April 11, 2026), Derrick Lewis (TKO, R2 4:09, June 14, 2026). The Blaydes decision is the wrestling receipt. The Lewis stoppage is the power receipt. An older listing's "debut November 2026" line is wrong; the log says November 8, 2025.
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: ranked
Opponent context: elite
Both men won on June 14, 2026, on the same card. Gane stopped Pereira in 87 seconds of round two. The Jones loss is the grappling template Hokit wants. Hokit is not Jones. Average fight time 13:00 means five rounds are not theoretical for Gane.
Opponent context: ranked
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: ufc
4-0 in the UFC, 10-0 professionally, one decision. Against Freeman, Gimenis and Lewis he finished. Against Blaydes he wrestled for fifteen minutes. A fifth UFC line is not invented.
Critical InsightMethod charts: Gane 7 KO / 3 Sub / 4 Dec of 14 wins; Hokit 6 / 3 / 1 of 10. Round bars are named finishes on the recent logs only — Gane's Pereira and Spivac in round two; Hokit's Gimenis and Freeman in round one, Lewis in round two, Blaydes decision. Arithmetic: 7+3+4=14 and 6+3+1=10.
Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.
| Factor | Ciryl | Josh |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of schedule (SOS tier) | Championship — Ngannou, Jones, Volkov, Aspinall NC, Pereira stoppage. | Rising — Blaydes decision and Lewis stoppage are the ranked receipts. An older listing showed #4; card keeps #10. |
| UFC sample | 14 UFC bouts in the sample | 4 UFC bouts — 4-0. Contender Series excluded. |
| Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5) | 4 elite · 0 veteran tier | 1 elite · 0 veteran tier |
| Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (12 vs 3 tier points in listed bouts). | ||
| Last three opponents | Alex Pereira, Tom Aspinall, Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, Denzel Freeman |
Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Gane: 5.40 / 61% / 60% def / 2.31 absorbed. Hokit: 9.29 / 64% / 48% def / 5.28 absorbed, 1.24 KD, four-fight sample.
Hokit 3.73 TD/15, 47% TD accuracy and 77% TDD, plus the Blaydes decision. Gane 0.66 TD/15, 23% TD accuracy and 47% TDD.
(Striking + Grappling) / 2
Hokit wins the average of the two gauges.
Gane 13:00 average fight time and five-round history. Hokit 7:14.
The overall edge is Gane's because the fight is still mostly striking unless the takedown lands.
| Metric | Ciryl | Josh |
|---|---|---|
| Striking accuracy | 61% | 64% |
| Standing / clinch / ground | 89% / 7% / 4% | 63% / 15% / 22% |
| Average fight time | 13:00 | 7:14 |
| UFC bouts | 14 | 4 |
| Card rank | #2 | #10 |
Editorial read of this booking, not an archetype database row · The 64/36 is that archetype, not a composite blowout. The gauges are closer than the win split because the cage and the absorption gap break the tie.
| Stat | Ciryl | Ciryl rank | Div avg | Josh rank | Josh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 5.40 | — | — | — | 9.29 |
| Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise. | 61% | — | — | — | 64% |
| Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit. | 60% | — | — | — | 48% |
| SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better. | 2.31 | — | — | — | 5.28 |
| TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine. | 0.66 | — | — | — | 3.73 |
| TD Acc | 23% | — | — | — | 47% |
| TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed. | 47% | — | — | — | 77% |
| Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat. | 0.6 | — | — | — | 0.4 |
| KD/15 | 0.33 | — | — | — | 1.24 |
| Card rank | #2 | — | — | — | #10 |
Statistical VerdictHokit throws and lands more, knocks down more, and wrestles more. He also absorbs more than twice as much (5.28 versus 2.31) behind a 48% striking defence. If the fight stays standing, the rate line is not close. If Hokit converts the 3.73 takedown rate the way he did against Blaydes, the rate line stops mattering.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightHokit's finish equity is front-loaded. A fight that is still a kickboxing match in round three is Gane's historical neighborhood (13:00 average). A fight that hits the mat in round one is the Jones loss, scaled down.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
81-inch reach, 60% defence, 2.31 absorbed in a 30-foot cage.
Gane's accuracy and defence still matter; Hokit's 1.24 KD/15 is the swing if entries close.
15% of Hokit's strikes already clinch; Gane is 7% clinch / 89% standing.
22% of Hokit's landed strikes are on the ground against Gane's 4%. 3.73 TD/15 into 47% TDD.
They do not fight in the same room. Gane is 89% standing. More than a fifth of Hokit's landed strikes are already on the ground. The fight is a referendum on whether Hokit can drag an 89%-standing fighter into his 22% ground share.
Gane is the longer, more accurate, much harder-to-hit striker. Hokit is the wrestler who just went three rounds with Blaydes and then stopped Lewis. Gane's 47% takedown defence is the number that keeps 10-0 in the fight.
Stay long, punish entries with the 81-inch reach and 60% striking defence, and do not accept a prolonged wrestling round the way the Jones fight ended.
+8" reach and +3" height on the compiled measurements.
2.31 SApM versus 5.28, and 60% striking defence versus 48%.
13:00 average fight time, five-round history, and a Round-2 stoppage of Alex Pereira.
Extra space favors the long Muay Thai exit over the wrestler's entry.
Teep, long kicks, exit on an angle. Do not square up in the clinch.
Sprawling on 47% defence has to be the camp priority.
Turn the Blaydes blueprint on a man with 47% takedown defence, get chest-to-chest, and finish on the ground or in the clinch before a 25-minute kickboxing match develops.
3.73 TD/15 and a decision over Curtis Blaydes.
47% TDD, and the Jones guillotine as proof elite grapplers can end Gane early.
1.24 KD/15, a stoppage of Derrick Lewis, and fight-night age 29 against 36.
Do not kickbox at the end of an 81-inch reach.
Chain the shot off the fence. The Blaydes fight is the only template that beats this version of Gane.
A level change sticks early and the fight never returns to kickboxing range.
He squares up in the clinch and gives Hokit the Lewis ground-and-pound path.
He kickboxes at the end of an 81-inch reach and absorbs 5.28 per minute for twenty-five minutes.
The takedown stalls and Gane's decision share writes the card.
Gane stopped Pereira in 87 seconds of round two. Hokit stopped Lewis with 51 seconds left in round two. Gane's was the cleaner striking finish against the more dangerous striker. Hokit's was a wrestler walking through a puncher.
Gane 89% standing / 7% clinch / 4% ground. Hokit 63% / 15% / 22%. The fight is whether Hokit can force his ground share.
Gane green (14 UFC bouts), Hokit medium (4). The wrestling upset is on tape and the striking favorite is also on tape, from the same night.
Gimenis and Freeman ended in round one. The Jones loss for Gane was also round one.
Critical InsightHokit's finish equity is front-loaded. A fight that is still kickboxing in round three is Gane's historical neighborhood.
Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.
One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction
Gane 64 / Hokit 36. The lean is 81 inches of reach, 2.31 absorbed, and a 30-foot cage — not a dismissal of 3.73 TD/15.
Hokit's live number is the Blaydes blueprint into 47% takedown defence. Conviction stays at 6 because the UFC sample is four fights.
BetOnline Gane −280 / Hokit +232. Fair from this split: Gane −178 / Hokit +178. The pick is Gane; the plus-money lean is Hokit +232.
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Ciryl Gane gold · Josh Hokit orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
81" against 73", and 2.31 absorbed against 5.28 behind 60% defence.
3.73 TD/15 and the Blaydes decision keep Hokit at 36%.
Fourteen UFC bouts against four caps conviction at 6.
30 feet lengthens the wrestler's entry and favors Gane's exit.
Gane stays long and finishes with outside striking — the largest single bucket.
Scripted outcomes for Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit — how each version of this fight unfolds.
Largest bucket. Half of Gane's wins are knockouts, plus the June stoppage of Pereira.
Long-range piecing-up path in a 30-foot cage — the Volkov/Rozenstruik shape.
Opportunistic. Three career submissions, not the identity.
Ground-and-pound or clinch finish after the level change — the Lewis path.
Blaydes replication: control time, fewer clean kicks.
Smallest Hokit branch. Three career submissions, live only after the takedown.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.57 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.78 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Analyst prop read
No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.
Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.
| Prop | Reference quote | Implied % | Model % | Fair decimal odds | Difference (pp) | Estimated EV | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight goes the distance | +178Fair odds | 36.0% | 36% | 2.78 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Gane by decision | +317Fair odds | 24.0% | 24% | 4.17 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Hokit by KO/TKO | +525Fair odds | 16.0% | 16% | 6.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Fair price |
| Hokit by submission | +1150Fair odds | 8.0% | 8% | 12.50 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Fair price |
| Gane by submission | +733Fair odds | 12.0% | 12% | 8.33 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Hokit by decision | +733Fair odds | 12.0% | 12% | 8.33 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Gane by KO/TKO | +257Fair odds | 28.0% | 28% | 3.57 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Fight does not go the distance | -178Fair odds | 64.0% | 64% | 1.56 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
Best lean against the posted BetOnline price: Hokit +232 is the overlay relative to a 36% share. Gane −280 is the side this file still picks, at a number shorter than −178 fair. The pick and the price are not the same sentence.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
A clear lean, not a lock. Reach, absorption and the 30-foot cage carry Gane to 64. Hokit's wrestling into 47% takedown defence — and a four-fight UFC sample — keep conviction at 6 out of 10. Lean: Ciryl Gane.
81-inch reach against 73
2.31 absorbed against 5.28
60% striking defence against 48%
Fourteen UFC bouts against four
A Round-2 stoppage of Alex Pereira
A 30-foot cage that makes the wrestler's entry longer
3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and a win over Curtis Blaydes
Gane's 47% takedown defence, and the Jones guillotine as proof elite grapplers can end Gane early
1.24 knockdowns per 15 and a stoppage of Derrick Lewis
Age 29 against 36
A four-fight sample that can still be noise
In roughly 64 of 100 readings, Ciryl Gane keeps the fight at the end of an 81-inch reach, lands the cleaner share behind 60% defence and 2.31 absorbed, and wins either by knockout (28%) or by decision (24%) when the wrestler cannot hold him down. A smaller branch is a submission (12%) if Hokit gives up his neck the way lesser heavyweights have.
In the other 36, Josh Hokit makes this the Blaydes fight instead of the Pereira fight: takedowns on a 47% defence (12% decision), ground-and-pound (16% KO/TKO), or a scramble submission (8%). That path is real. It is not the base case in a 30-foot cage against the man who just stopped Pereira.
Gane 64 / Hokit 36, conviction 6 out of 10. The pick is Gane. The BetOnline price of −280 is shorter than the fair −178, so the plus-money side of this file is Hokit +232. He is the interim heavyweight title holder after Pereira; this bout is booked for the championship without a defending-champion label.
