Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Macy Chiasson — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Macy Chiasson

11W6L
Length / Range
VS
Bia Mesquita — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Bia Mesquita

“The Lady GOAT”
8W0L
Submission Streak

Seven inches of height against three straight UFC submissions

Women's BantamweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Mesquita's three UFC submissions and 3.6 Sub/15 against Chiasson's +7" height — Pérez already took her down six times.

Paths that change the fight

  • Macy ChiassonStay at the end of the 72-inch reach in a 30-foot cage, stuff the first layer, and turn it into the kind of fight her chart says she can win by knockout or decision. If Pérez's six takedowns happen again, the reach never enters the fight. 62% takedown defence is the number that has to show up.
  • Bia MesquitaClose the seven inches, complete the shot at anything like 75%, and find the armbar or the rear-naked choke she has used in all three UFC wins. She does not need to out-point Chiasson for fifteen minutes. Mullins out-landed her 10-3 and still tapped.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • +7" height and +5" reach in a 30-foot cage
  • 14 UFC fights against 3, rank #10, announced SOS 37 against 9

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Macy Chiasson

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
42%
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Reference quote—

Bia Mesquita

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
58%
Fair decimal odds
1.72
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Chiasson record is 11-6 (not 10-6). Pérez = LOSS (misleading Win tag rejected). Mesquita TD Def 0% is printed; Mullins did land a takedown. Per-round tables omitted. Editorial estimates only.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round women's bantamweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Macy Chiasson is 11-6 on the compiled record. The announced sheet said 10-6. Method chart of the 11 wins is 4 KO (36%) / 4 decision (36%) / 3 submission (27%). Fight-night age 35, orthodox, 5'11" with a 72" reach. Rate line: 3.21 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 44% striking defence, 2.76 SApM, 1.87 TD/15 at 35%, 62% takedown defence and 0.4 Sub/15. Her last fight was a unanimous-decision loss to Ailín Pérez on February 28, 2026. Pérez landed 6 takedowns. A misleading Win tag on that night was rejected; the fight row is a loss. Bia "The Lady GOAT" Mesquita is 8-0, fight-night age 35, orthodox, 5'4" with a 67" reach. Three UFC fights, all finishes: 4.52 SLpM, 57% accuracy, 71% striking defence, 1.27 SApM, 3.57 TD/15 at 75% and 3.6 Sub/15. A printed 0% takedown defence is on the sheet. Melissa Mullins landed a takedown in the June 2026 fight, so the cell is not an empty sample. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Mesquita 58% / Chiasson 42% at conviction 4 / 10.

Macy Chiasson
Attribute
Bia Mesquita
35
Age
35
5'11"+7" Chiasson
Height
5'4"
72"+5" Chiasson
Reach
67"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
#10 WBW
Card Rank
#12 WBW
37
Announced SOS
9
14
UFC Sample
3
Length, jab, stay upright
Fighting Style
Close distance, finish by submission

Chiasson is +7" in height and +5" in reach. They are the same age. Mesquita has won her three UFC fights by submission, all before the end of round two, and she gives up a size gap that is the largest on this prelim. Medium UFC sample because Mesquita is at three roster fights and Chiasson is well past that.

Venue Factor
Thirty feet should belong to the woman with a 72-inch reach. It belongs to her only if she is not tied up. Pérez took Chiasson down six times in February. Mesquita's takedown rate is 3.57 at 75%, with 3.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Macy Chiasson

Macy Chiasson

Pro Record
11-6-0 (sheet said 10-6)
UFC Record
14 sample — win chart 4 KO / 4 Dec / 3 Sub of 11 wins
Streak
Unanimous-decision loss to Pérez (misleading Win tag rejected)
Finish Rate
Roughly even KO / decision / submission across 11 wins
Avg Fight Time
Last fight went full fifteen — eight significant strikes
Chin · Not finished by Pérez — held to eight strikes and six takedowns againstSOS · Announced 37Tall Range Striker

Chiasson is the ranked veteran with the body of a taller weight class and a defence number that just lost a wrestling fight. The size is why this is 58-42 and not a wider number for the finisher.

Bia Mesquita

Bia Mesquita

Pro Record
8-0-0
UFC Record
3-0 — all submissions (Mullins armbar, Rendon RNC, Alekseeva RNC)
Streak
Three straight UFC submissions; has not seen a UFC scorecard
Finish Rate
100% of UFC wins by submission
Avg Fight Time
All three UFC finishes before the end of round two
Chin · 1.27 SApM, 71% defence — Mullins out-struck her 10-3 and still tappedSOS · Announced 9Submission Specialist

Mesquita is 8-0 and has not seen a scorecard in the UFC. She can be out-struck for a minute and still finish. The choke and the armbar are how she wins.

Macy Chiasson
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Bia Mesquita
— dealt · — absorbed

Macy Chiassonsignature weapons

Height / Reach+7" height, +5" reach in a 30-foot cage — size path
×0
Career KO ChartFour knockout wins on the method chart of 11
×4

Bia Mesquitasignature weapons

Submission Rate3.6 Sub/15 — all three UFC wins by submission
×3
Takedowns3.57 TD/15 at 75% — Pérez already showed Chiasson's TDD can break
×3

Macy Chiasson

L
Ailín Pérez
Unanimous decision

Opponent context: ranked

RR3
Feb 28, 2026
Pattern

One woman is coming off a shutout wrestling loss: 8 significant strikes, 0 takedowns, 6 against her. Earlier wins that make the 4/4/3 chart were not re-copied as a five-fight table.

Bia Mesquita

W
Melissa Mullins
Armbar

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (3:16)
Jun 20, 2026
W
Montse Rendon
Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:07)
Mar 14, 2026
W
Irina Alekseeva
Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (2:14)
Oct 11, 2025
Pattern

The other has not lost, and has not gone to a decision, in the UFC. Mullins out-landed her 10-3 and still tapped. Rendon landed none and tapped in 2:07.

Macy Chiasson

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Bia Mesquita

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
0.4 Sub/15 against 3.6 is the gap the height does not close by itself. Mesquita is ahead on nearly every rate cell except printed takedown defence and sample.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorMacyBia
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Announced 37 — 14 UFC bouts against 3; rank #10Announced 9 — Three UFC fights; printed TD Def 0% — Mullins did get her down
UFC sample14 sample — win chart 4 KO / 4 Dec / 3 Sub of 11 wins3-0 — all submissions (Mullins armbar, Rendon RNC, Alekseeva RNC)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (3 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsAilín PérezMelissa Mullins, Montse Rendon, Irina Alekseeva
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

0
Macy
0
Bia

Chiasson 3.21 / 46% / 44% def. Mesquita 4.52 / 57% / 71% def and 1.27 absorbed

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

0
Macy
0
Bia

Chiasson 1.87 TD/15 at 35% and 0.4 Sub/15. Mesquita 3.57 at 75% and 3.6 Sub/15

Size

Height · Reach

0
Macy
0
Bia

+7" height, +5" reach

Form

Recent results

0
Macy
0
Bia

A decision loss against three submissions

Overall

Editorial blend

0
Macy
0
Bia

The finish rate and the Pérez tape outweigh the size, barely

MetricMacyBia
SLpM3.214.52
SApM2.761.27
Sub/150.43.6
Reach72"67"
UFC Fights143

Archetype Base Rate

Tall Veteran 42%58% Submission Streak

Editorial — size vs finish rate · LEAN B. Submission streak is the lean; height keeps Chiasson at 42%.

Macy ChiassonBia Mesquita

Women's Bantamweight

StatMacyMacy rankDiv avgBia rankBia
SLpM3.21———4.52
Str Acc46%———57%
Str Def44%———71%
SApM2.76———1.27
TD/151.87———3.57
TD Acc35%———75%
TD Def62%———0% printed
Sub/150.4———3.6
Reach72"———67"
UFC fights14———3
Card rank#10———#12
Statistical Verdict
Mesquita is ahead on output, accuracy, defence, absorption, takedown rate, takedown accuracy and submission rate. Chiasson is ahead on height, reach, takedown defence on the printed career cell, and UFC sample. The Pérez fight is the recent evidence that the 62% takedown defence can be beaten by a committed wrestler. Mesquita is that kind of wrestler, and she finishes.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Macy Chiasson

  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
  • Pérez went full fifteen: 8 significant strikes, 0 TD, 6 against.
  • A long fight is the version in which the reach can matter.

Bia Mesquita

  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
  • UFC finishes: R1 3:16, R1 2:07, R2 2:14 — has not been to R3 in the UFC.
  • Mesquita's log says she does not allow the long-fight version.
Critical Insight
A long fight favors Chiasson's reach. Mesquita's log says she does not allow that version.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Macy · N/ABia · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMacy owns it

+7" height, +5" reach — if she stays upright

Pocket / ExchangesBia owns it

Better rates — but not how she finishes

ClinchBia owns it

3.57 TD/15 at 75%

GroundBia owns it

3.6 Sub/15 — all three UFC wins

The Deep Read

Chiasson is the ranked veteran with seven inches of height and a defence number that just lost a wrestling fight. Mesquita is 8-0 and has not seen a scorecard in the UFC. The size is why this is 58-42 and not a wider number for the finisher.

Chiasson's last measured pattern is a wrestling loss. Mesquita's pattern is a short fight that ends on a submission even when the strike count is not hers. Announced SOS 37 against 9 is the experience gap. Rank #10 against #12 is not a gap at all.

LEAN B. Mesquita 58 / Chiasson 42, conviction 4. The submission streak is the lean. The height is why the taller woman is still in the fight.

Path to Victory

Macy Chiasson

Stay at the end of the 72-inch reach in a 30-foot cage, stuff the first layer, and turn it into the kind of fight her chart says she can win by knockout or decision. If Pérez's six takedowns happen again, the reach never enters the fight. 62% takedown defence is the number that has to show up.

Why they win
01
+7" height, +5" reach

Largest size gap on this prelim.

02
#10, 14 UFC fights

Announced SOS 37 against 9.

03
Win chart with KOs

Four knockouts and four decisions on the chart.

04
62% TDD career cell

Has to show up — Pérez already beat it.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab, front kick, circle

    Do not accept the fence.

  2. 2
    Stuff the first layer

    62% TDD has to show up.

  3. 3
    Avoid the clinch

    A clinch with 3.6 Sub/15 is how an armbar starts.

Path to Victory

Bia Mesquita

Close the seven inches, complete the shot at anything like 75%, and find the armbar or the rear-naked choke she has used in all three UFC wins. She does not need to out-point Chiasson for fifteen minutes. Mullins out-landed her 10-3 and still tapped.

Why they win
01
8-0, three UFC subs

Has not seen a UFC scorecard.

02
3.6 Sub/15

3.57 TD/15 at 75%.

03
71% StrDef, 1.27 SApM

Rate table favors her almost everywhere.

04
Pérez tape

Chiasson just lost a wrestling decision.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Pressure, level change, finish

    Do not spend a round boxing a woman seven inches taller.

  2. 2
    Rendon template

    Over in two minutes with 18 strikes and a choke.

  3. 3
    Mullins template

    Lose the strike count for a minute, get the tap anyway.

Danger Zone

How Macy Chiasson loses

  • Pérez replication — six takedowns, shutout, no reach.

  • Clinch with a woman at 3.6 Sub/15.

  • Armbar starts the way Mullins ended.

Danger Zone

How Bia Mesquita loses

  • Range fight actually happens for fifteen minutes.

  • Chiasson initiates takedowns (1.87 TD/15) into printed 0% TDD.

  • Height turns into a KO or decision for the taller woman.

Misleading Win rejected

Pérez = LOSS

A misleading Win tag was rejected. Official result is a unanimous decision loss. Strikes 8-27, takedowns 0-6.

6
TD against
Not 10-6

Record 11-6

Announced sheet said 10-6. This page uses 11-6.

11-6
Chiasson record
0.4 vs 3.6

Submission Gap

Height does not close 3.6 Sub/15 by itself. All three UFC wins by submission.

3.6
Sub/15 Mesquita
Mullins caveat

Printed 0% TDD

Mullins landed a takedown before the armbar. Chiasson at 1.87 TD/15 is big enough to try if she initiates.

The Five-Round Clock

Macy Chiasson danger windowBia Mesquita danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Mesquita's kill window

Mullins 3:16 and Rendon 2:07 both R1. Highest finish equity.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Mesquita equity is front-loaded. Chiasson equity needs the fight to last.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

LEAN B: Mesquita 58% / Chiasson 42%, conviction 4/10 — submission streak lean; height keeps the taller woman live.

2

Chiasson is 11-6 (not 10-6). Pérez = LOSS. Fair Chiasson +138 / Mesquita −138. No BetOnline quote.

3

Best lean: Mesquita by submission at 36%. Chiasson by decision at 20% is the height upset.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Chiasson KO/TKO — 14%Chiasson Decision — 20%Chiasson Submission — 8%Mesquita KO/TKO — 8%Mesquita Decision — 14%Mesquita Submission — 36%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Macy Chiasson gold · Bia Mesquita orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Submission streak

Three UFC wins, all submissions, 8-0.

Pérez tape

Chiasson just lost a wrestling shutout.

Size

+7" height keeps Chiasson at 42%.

Rate table

Mesquita ahead almost everywhere except TDD and sample.

Experience gap

14 UFC fights and SOS 37 against 9.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Mullins Armbar

Mesquita by submission — largest bucket in the fight.

Scripted outcomes for Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Macy Chiasson win probability
0%
14%
20%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Fourteen points — four career knockouts without ignoring the Pérez tape.

  • Twenty points — the size path if she keeps it standing.

  • Eight points — on the chart (3 of 11) at 0.4 per 15. Not the recent tape.

Bia Mesquita win probability
0%
8%
14%
36%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight points — not how she wins UFC fights.

  • Fourteen points — small. She has not had one in the UFC.

  • Thirty-six points — Mullins, Rendon, Alekseeva. Largest bucket.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Bia
R2
Bia
R3
Macy
29-28 Mesquita
Control without the finish
Inside Mesquita's 14% decision share
29-28 Chiasson
Reach minutes if shots are stuffed
Primary path inside Chiasson's 20% decision share
30-27 Chiasson
Full fifteen of length
Live if Pérez never repeats

Model and price

Macy Chiasson

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
42%
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Bia Mesquita

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
58%
Fair decimal odds
1.72
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Macy Chiasson

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Bia Mesquita

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Mesquita by submission at 36% (fair +178). Chiasson by decision at 20% (fair +400) is the height upset. Distance 34% (fair +194); inside 66% (fair −194).

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The submission streak is the lean. The height is why the taller woman is still in the fight. Conviction 4/10. Lean: Bia Mesquita.

What backs the lean

  • Three UFC wins, all submissions, and an 8-0 record

  • 3.6 Sub/15, 3.57 TD/15 at 75%, 71% striking defence, 1.27 absorbed

  • Chiasson just lost a decision in which she landed 8 significant strikes and gave up 6 takedowns

  • The rate table favors Mesquita in every grappling and striking cell except takedown defence

What limits it

  • +7" height and +5" reach in a 30-foot cage

  • 14 UFC fights against 3, rank #10, announced SOS 37 against 9

  • A career chart that includes four knockouts and four decisions

  • Mesquita's printed takedown defence is 0%, and Mullins did get her down before the armbar

Final Assessment

In roughly 58 of 100 readings, Bia Mesquita closes the distance, completes the shot, and wins by submission (36%). A decision is 14%. A knockout is 8%. Mullins is the template: lose the strike count for a minute, get the tap anyway.

In the other 42, Macy Chiasson keeps the seven inches of height in play and wins a decision (20%) or a KO/TKO (14%). The submission share is 8%. That reading requires the Pérez fight not to repeat.

Mesquita 58 / Chiasson 42, conviction 4 out of 10. The submission streak is the lean. The height is why the taller woman is still in the fight.

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