Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Macy Chiasson

10W6L

Length / Clinch

Bia Mesquita

“The Lady GOAT”

8W0L

Jiu-Jitsu Finisher

The biggest size gap on the prelims against three straight UFC submissions

Women's BantamweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Chiasson has lost three straight decisions, and the clearest of them came against women who got hold of her: Ketlen Vieira and Ailín Pérez spent long stretches in control. Mesquita is a decorated jiu-jitsu champion who has submitted every opponent she has met in the UFC. Chiasson's size only matters if the fight stays standing and off the fence.

Paths that change the fight

Macy ChiassonUse every inch. Chiasson has five inches of height and four and a half of reach, and Mesquita has never had to strike her way through someone that long. Jab, front kick and circle; if Mesquita closes, frame off and get back to space rather than clinching. A fifteen-minute fight at range, where Chiasson's output can build, is the version her decision and knockout record points to.
Bia MesquitaClose the distance and get the fight down. Mesquita has submitted every UFC opponent inside two rounds, and Chiasson's recent losses came when opponents took her down or controlled her. Chiasson clinches often, which offers Mesquita the body lock, the trip and the back. She does not need to win a striking exchange — Mullins beat her on the feet and still tapped.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

+5" height and +4.5" reach for Chiasson in a 30-foot cage
14 UFC fights against ranked opposition, against Mesquita's three

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Macy Chiasson

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: +177 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Bia Mesquita

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: -210 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities, conviction and fair prices are MMA Analytics projections, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Macy Chiasson is 35, a former The Ultimate Fighter winner and one of the tallest women at 135 pounds, and she arrives on a three-fight losing streak: unanimous decisions to Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailín Pérez since May 2025. The losses were not alike. Santos out-struck her, while Vieira and Pérez got hold of her — Vieira controlled her for more than ten minutes, and Pérez landed six takedowns and held Chiasson to eight significant strikes in fifteen minutes. Bia Mesquita, also 35, is one of the most decorated grapplers ever to enter the Octagon, with a record ten IBJJF world titles at black belt, and she is 8-0 in MMA and 3-0 in the UFC with three submissions: rear-naked chokes of Irina Alekseeva and Montserrat Rendón and an armbar of Melissa Mullins. Her striking numbers look excellent but come from fights that never lasted long enough to test them. Chiasson has five inches of height and four and a half of reach, and they matter only while the fight stays upright. The lean is Mesquita.

Macy Chiasson

Attribute

Bia Mesquita

Age

5'11"+5" Chiasson

Height

5'6"

72"+4.5" Chiasson

Reach

67.5"

42"+5" Chiasson

Leg Reach

37"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

8-6

UFC Record

3-0

UFC Bouts

#10 WBW

Card Rank

#12 WBW

Long clinch striker

Fighting Style

Jiu-jitsu champion, takedowns to the back

The size gap is the largest on the prelim card: Chiasson is five inches taller with four and a half inches more reach and five more of leg reach, and she has fought as high as featherweight. Mesquita is compact and was built on the mats — she started jiu-jitsu at five and holds ten world titles at black belt.

Venue Factor
The 30-foot Octagon favours the longer fighter if she uses it: space to circle, jab and kick without being trapped on the fence. Chiasson's own game, though, is built in the clinch — 31% of her UFC significant strikes land there — and a clinch with Mesquita is where takedowns and back-takes begin.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Macy Chiasson

Pro Record

10-6-0

UFC Record

8-6 across 14 UFC bouts since November 2018

Streak

Three straight decision losses — Vieira, Santos, Pérez (May 2025 to Feb 2026)

Finish Rate

60% of wins (6 of 10) — 3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions

Avg Fight Time

10:54 (UFC)

Chin · Stopped once — Irene Aldana's upkick to the body (2022); 1 UFC knockdown absorbedSOS · Ranked women's bantamweightsLong Clinch Striker

Chiasson won The Ultimate Fighter in 2018 by choking Pannie Kianzad in the finale, started her UFC career 3-0 and has spent most of the years since around the top of the women's bantamweight division. Her best recent stretch was 2024: a first-round rear-naked choke of Kianzad in their rematch and a doctor stoppage of Mayra Bueno Silva after she landed ten ground strikes in round two. Since then she has lost three straight decisions to ranked opponents. Santos out-landed her 65–54; Vieira landed only 28 significant strikes but controlled her for 10:06; and Pérez took her down six times and held her to eight significant strikes. Across 14 UFC fights she lands 3.21 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.76, a third of her output comes in the clinch, and her takedown defence stands at 63%. The recent losses say the grappling side of that line is where she is exposed.

Bia Mesquita

Pro Record

8-0-0

UFC Record

3-0 across 3 UFC bouts since October 2025 — three submissions

Streak

8-0 — unbeaten as a professional

Finish Rate

88% of wins (7 of 8) — 6 submissions, 1 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

4:12 (UFC)

Chin · Unbeaten — no knockdowns absorbed in the UFCSOS · Unranked UFC oppositionJiu-Jitsu Champion / Back-Taker

Mesquita arrived in MMA in 2024 as one of the most accomplished grapplers of her generation — a record ten IBJJF world titles at black belt and 24 major gi titles — and has moved quickly: five wins in twelve months on the regional scene and in LFA, then three in the UFC. All three UFC fights ended inside two rounds. She took Irina Alekseeva down, controlled her for nearly four minutes and landed 34 ground strikes in the first round before the choke came in the second; Montserrat Rendón lasted 2:07 and landed nothing; Melissa Mullins out-landed her 10–3 and took her down, and was armbarred at 3:16 of round one anyway. That last fight is the useful warning: Mesquita's striking has not been tested over time, and a bigger striker did land on her. Her finishing has not needed much time — 12 minutes 37 seconds of UFC fighting in total.

Macy Chiasson

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Bia Mesquita

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Macy Chiassonsignature weapons

Rear-naked chokePannie Kianzad twice — the TUF 28 Finale (2018) and March 2024

×2

PunchesGina Mazany (2019) and Sarah Moras (2019)

×2

Doctor stoppageMayra Bueno Silva, R2 1:58 (Jun 2024), after ground strikes

×1

ArmbarMiranda Dearing — her pro debut (2017)

×1

Bia Mesquitasignature weapons

Rear-naked chokeLatest: Montserrat Rendón, R1 2:07 (Mar 2026); Irina Alekseeva (Oct 2025)

×5

ArmbarMelissa Mullins, R1 3:16 (Jun 2026)

×1

PunchesSierra Dinwoodie, R2 3:05 (LFA, 2025)

×1

Macy Chiasson

Ailín Pérez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Feb 28, 2026

Yana Santos

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 — Oct 4, 2025

Ketlen Vieira

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)

UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Barber — May 31, 2025

Mayra Bueno Silva

KO/TKO — Doctor stoppage

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (1:58)

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2 — Jun 29, 2024

Pannie Kianzad

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (3:54)

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura — Mar 16, 2024

Pattern

Three straight losses after two straight wins, all three by unanimous decision. Two followed the same script: Vieira controlled her for 9:00 of the last two rounds without landing a takedown, and Pérez landed six of ten takedown attempts while Chiasson landed eight significant strikes in fifteen minutes. The third was a striking loss, Santos out-landing her 65–54. Chiasson has not finished anyone since June 2024.

Bia Mesquita

Melissa Mullins

Submission — Armbar

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (3:16)

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Jun 20, 2026

Montserrat Rendón

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:07)

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos — Mar 14, 2026

Irina Alekseeva

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (2:14)

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot — Oct 11, 2025

Sierra Dinwoodie

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (3:05)

LFA 211 — Jun 20, 2025

Hope Chase

DQ — Illegal upkick

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (2:20)

LFA 203 — Mar 6, 2025

Pattern

Eight fights, eight wins, none to a decision. The UFC finishes came in rounds one and two against three different kinds of fight: a ground-and-pound beating that ended in a choke (Alekseeva), a one-sided two minutes (Rendón), and a round she was losing on the feet until she caught an arm (Mullins).

Macy Chiasson

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Bia Mesquita

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Chiasson: 3 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions and 4 decisions in 10 professional wins. Of Chiasson's 6 finishes, two in round one, three in round two and one in round three. Mesquita: 1 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 0 decisions and 1 disqualification in 8 professional wins. All eight of Mesquita's finishes came inside the first two rounds, four in round one. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Macy	Bia
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Ranked women's bantamweights — Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos, Ailín Pérez, Irene Aldana, Raquel Pennington, Mayra Bueno Silva and Norma Dumont	Unranked UFC opposition — Irina Alekseeva, Montserrat Rendón and Melissa Mullins in the UFC; LFA before that
UFC sample	8-6 across 14 UFC bouts since November 2018	3-0 across 3 UFC bouts since October 2025 — three submissions
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 1 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (2 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Ailín Pérez, Yana Santos, Ketlen Vieira	Melissa Mullins, Montserrat Rendón, Irina Alekseeva

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Macy

Bia

Chiasson lands 3.21 and absorbs 2.76 over 14 UFC fights; Mesquita lands 4.52 and absorbs 1.27 over 12 minutes

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Macy

Bia

Chiasson attempts 0.39 submissions per 15 minutes; Mesquita 3.57, with three UFC submissions

Length

Height · Reach · Leg reach

Macy

Bia

+5" height, +4.5" reach and +5" leg reach for Chiasson

Form

Metric	Macy	Bia
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.21	4.52
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.76	1.27
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.87	3.57
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.39	3.57
Reach	72"	67.5"
UFC Bouts	14	3

Archetype Base Rate

Long Clinch Striker 42%58% Jiu-Jitsu Finisher

Matchup read: a big, experienced striker on a losing streak against an unbeaten elite grappler · The lean follows Mesquita's grappling and Chiasson's recent control losses; the size gap keeps it at 58.

Macy ChiassonBia Mesquita

Women's Bantamweight

· 15 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Macy	Macy comparison	Div avg	Bia comparison	Bia
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.21	-0.82 vs avg	4.03	+0.49 vs avg	4.52
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	46%	-2.40 pp vs avg	48.4%	+8.60 pp vs avg	57%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	45%	-13.50 pp vs avg	58.5%	+12.50 pp vs avg	71%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.76	-0.27 vs avg	3.03	-1.76 vs avg	1.27
KD/15	0.20	+0.08 vs avg	0.12	-0.12 vs avg	0.00
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.87	+0.31 vs avg	1.56	+2.01 vs avg	3.57
TD Acc	36% (19 of 53)	—	—	—	75% (3 of 4)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	63% (12 of 32 conceded)	—	—	—	0% (1 of 1 conceded)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.39	+0.05 vs avg	0.34	+3.23 vs avg	3.57
Control / 15 min	5:07	—	—	—	8:09
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:54	—	—	—	4:12

Statistical Verdict
Mesquita's line is better in almost every cell, but it rests on twelve minutes of fighting against unranked opposition, while Chiasson's rests on more than two and a half hours against ranked women. Two gaps are too large to wave away as small numbers: Mesquita's submission rate is ten times the division average, and Chiasson's striking defence is well below it. The one cell in Chiasson's favour is takedown defence — and Mullins showed that Mesquita can be taken down too.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2: single-fight sample for Bia Mesquita

Control Time per Round (sec)

Macy Chiasson

Chiasson starts busy and her volume falls away: 19.4 significant strikes in an average first round, 12.5 in the second and 8.6 in the third, as more of her fights move into the clinch and onto the mat.
Her control time climbs across rounds — 77, 101 and 105 seconds — so she is usually the one on top. That is what makes the Vieira and Pérez fights stand out: both reversed the pattern.
Her body work is a real weapon early: 41.3% of her first-round strikes go to the body, and a third of her round-one output lands in the clinch.

Bia Mesquita

Mesquita has fought four UFC rounds in total. In three first rounds she averaged 19.0 landed at 60%, with 80.7% of it on the ground and almost two minutes of control.
The exception was Mullins, who out-landed her 10–3 standing and took her down — and was armbarred at 3:16 anyway.
Her only UFC second round lasted 2:14: one takedown, 66 seconds of control and the rear-naked choke on Alekseeva. She has never needed a third round as a professional.

Critical Insight
Chiasson's lines show a fighter who starts with volume and grinds later; Mesquita's show someone who ends fights as soon as they hit the mat. The opening round decides whether Chiasson's size gets to matter: if she spends it at range, her output is higher than anything Mesquita's UFC opponents managed; if she spends it on the mat, Mesquita's first-round record says the fight may not see round two.

Strike targeting

Macy

55%

35%

10%

Head

55%

Body

35%

Legs

10%

Bia

93%

Head

93%

Body

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

MacyBia

48%Distance19%

31%Clinch0%

21%Ground81%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceMacy owns it

+4.5" reach and a longer frame; Mesquita has never had to strike at range for long

Clinch / FenceBia owns it

Chiasson's favourite position — and where Mesquita's body locks start

Top PositionBia owns it

8:09 of control per 15 minutes for Mesquita; Vieira and Pérez controlled Chiasson recently

SubmissionsBia owns it

Three UFC submissions in 12:37; Chiasson has been submitted once in 16 fights

The Deep Read

This is the most lopsided physical matchup on the prelims and one of the clearest style contrasts. Macy Chiasson is five inches taller and four and a half inches longer, a former The Ultimate Fighter winner who has spent eight years in the UFC's women's bantamweight top tier. Bia Mesquita is a jiu-jitsu great — ten world titles at black belt — who turned to MMA in 2024 and has not been taken past round two.

Chiasson's recent record explains why Mesquita is the lean. She has lost three straight decisions, and in two of them, against Ketlen Vieira and Ailín Pérez, the problem was being controlled: Vieira spent 9:00 of the last two rounds on top, and Pérez landed six takedowns and held her to eight significant strikes. Mesquita's entire game is getting on top and finishing.

The counter-argument is real. Mesquita's UFC résumé is twelve minutes long against unranked opposition, Mullins out-struck her and took her down, and nobody she has fought is as long as Chiasson. If Chiasson keeps it at range for fifteen minutes, her size and experience can carry the rounds. The lean is Mesquita, 58 to 42, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.

Path to Victory

Macy Chiasson

Use every inch. Chiasson has five inches of height and four and a half of reach, and Mesquita has never had to strike her way through someone that long. Jab, front kick and circle; if Mesquita closes, frame off and get back to space rather than clinching. A fifteen-minute fight at range, where Chiasson's output can build, is the version her decision and knockout record points to.

Why they win

Size

+5" height, +4.5" reach and +5" leg reach — the largest gap on the prelims.

Experience

14 UFC fights against ranked opposition, against Mesquita's three.

Takedown defence

63% across 14 UFC fights; Mullins took Mesquita down in her last fight.

Fifteen-minute fights

Seven UFC fights to the scorecards; Mesquita has never been past round two.

Finishing range

Three career knockouts and three submissions.

The gameplan

1
Jab and move
Keep Mesquita at the end of a 72-inch reach and circle off the fence.
2
Frame, don't clinch
Her usual clinch game is the wrong fight against a jiu-jitsu champion.
3
Make entries expensive
41% of her first-round strikes go to the body; punish every step in.
4
Stand up at once
If taken down, get to the fence and back to the feet before the back is exposed.
5
Bank the rounds
Fifteen minutes on the feet is her path to a decision.

Path to Victory

Bia Mesquita

Close the distance and get the fight down. Mesquita has submitted every UFC opponent inside two rounds, and Chiasson's recent losses came when opponents took her down or controlled her. Chiasson clinches often, which offers Mesquita the body lock, the trip and the back. She does not need to win a striking exchange — Mullins beat her on the feet and still tapped.

Why they win

Elite grappling

Ten IBJJF world titles at black belt and three UFC submissions.

Submission rate

3.57 attempts per 15 minutes, ten times the division average.

Unbeaten

8-0 as a professional and never taken to a decision.

Chiasson's recent losses

Vieira and Pérez beat her with control and takedowns.

Efficient striking

57% accuracy and 1.27 absorbed per minute in the UFC.

The gameplan

1
Close behind strikes
Use punches to reach the clinch rather than shooting from range.
2
Body lock and trip
Chiasson's height makes clinch takedowns the easier route than a double-leg.
3
Take the back
Five of her eight wins are rear-naked chokes.
4
Strike to open the neck
34 ground strikes set up the Alekseeva choke.
5
Finish early
She has never needed a third round; this is no time to start.

Danger Zone

How Macy Chiasson loses

Mesquita gets inside the reach and it becomes the Pérez fight, with a submission specialist on top.
Chiasson initiates a clinch, as she often does, and gives up the back.
A scramble after one of her own takedown attempts leaves an arm exposed, as Mullins found.

Danger Zone

How Bia Mesquita loses

She cannot close the distance and spends fifteen minutes eating jabs and kicks from a much longer opponent.
Chiasson stuffs the first shots and the fight settles into a range battle Mesquita has never had to fight.
Chiasson's body work in the clinch slows her down before the grappling starts.

Chiasson's last three

Controlled in Defeat

Vieira controlled Chiasson for 10:06 and Pérez for 7:36 — the two clearest of her three straight decision losses.

straight decision losses

Mesquita's UFC record

Every UFC Opponent Submitted

Rear-naked chokes of Irina Alekseeva and Montserrat Rendón, then an armbar of Melissa Mullins — 12:37 of UFC fighting in total.

3-0

UFC record, all submissions

Mesquita vs Mullins

Out-Struck, Still Finished

Mullins out-landed Mesquita 10–3 and took her down, then was armbarred at 3:16 of round one.

3:16

the Mullins armbar

Largest on the prelims

The Size Gap

Chiasson is five inches taller with four and a half inches more reach — and has fought as high as featherweight.

+5"

height advantage for Chiasson

Chiasson's habit

The Clinch Problem

Almost a third of Chiasson's UFC significant strikes land in the clinch. Against Mesquita, the clinch is where takedowns and back-takes begin.

31%

of Chiasson's strikes in the clinch

The Five-Round Clock

Macy Chiasson danger windowBia Mesquita danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Mesquita's finishing window

Two of her three UFC wins ended in round one, and she averages almost two minutes of control there.

Critical Insight
Every minute Chiasson spends upright moves the fight toward her. Mesquita's best window is the first round, and a third round would be new territory for her.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Chiasson's recent losses came from being controlled, and control is Mesquita's whole game.

Chiasson's size advantage is the biggest on the prelims, and it matters only while the fight stays standing.

The lean is Mesquita by submission; Chiasson's clearest path is a fifteen-minute range fight.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Chiasson KO/TKO — 14%Chiasson Decision — 20%Chiasson Submission — 8%Mesquita KO/TKO — 8%Mesquita Decision — 14%Mesquita Submission — 36%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Macy Chiasson gold · Bia Mesquita orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Grappling gap

Mesquita attempts 3.57 submissions per 15 minutes; Chiasson 0.39.

Recent control losses

Vieira and Pérez beat Chiasson by controlling her.

Size

Five inches of height and four and a half of reach for Chiasson.

Experience

Mesquita has 12:37 of UFC fighting; Chiasson more than two and a half hours.

Takedown defence

Chiasson's 63% has to hold; Mullins showed Mesquita can be taken down too.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Back Take

Mesquita closes the distance, gets the body lock and finishes with a choke or an armbar in the first two rounds.

Scripted outcomes for Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Macy Chiasson win probability

14%

20%

KO/TKODECSUB

Three career knockouts, including the ground strikes that forced the Bueno Silva stoppage.
The size path: fifteen minutes at range, where Chiasson has gone the distance seven times in the UFC.
Three career submissions, two of them against Kianzad; unlikely against a jiu-jitsu champion.

Bia Mesquita win probability

14%

36%

KO/TKODECSUB

One career knockout; her ground strikes are more likely to set up a choke than end the fight.
Mesquita has never been to a decision; three rounds of top control would be new.
The base case: back-take or armbar, as in all three UFC wins.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Bia

Macy

29-28 Chiasson

Mesquita's first round, then two rounds at range

Most likely card inside Chiasson's 20% decision share

29-28 Mesquita

Two rounds of top control

Most likely card inside Mesquita's 14% decision share

30-27 Chiasson

Every takedown stuffed

The one-sided version

Model and price

Macy Chiasson

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: +177 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Estimated EV: +16.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: +7.2 pp

Bia Mesquita

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: -210 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Estimated EV: -14.4%
Edge vs no-vig market: -7.2 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Macy Chiasson

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Bia Mesquita

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Mesquita by submission at 36% (fair +178). Chiasson by decision at 20% (fair +400) is the size upset. Fight goes the distance 34% (fair +194); ends inside the distance 66% (fair −194).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The unbeaten jiu-jitsu champion is the lean against a bigger striker coming off three decision losses; a twelve-minute UFC résumé keeps conviction at 4 out of 10. Lean: Bia Mesquita.

What backs the lean

Three UFC wins, all by submission, and an 8-0 record
3.57 submission attempts per 15 minutes, ten times the division average
Vieira and Pérez beat Chiasson by controlling her
Chiasson has not won since June 2024

What limits it

+5" height and +4.5" reach for Chiasson in a 30-foot cage
14 UFC fights against ranked opposition, against Mesquita's three
Mullins out-struck Mesquita and took her down
Chiasson has gone the distance seven times in the UFC; Mesquita has never been past round two

Final Assessment

In roughly 58 of 100 readings, Bia Mesquita closes the distance, gets Chiasson down or takes her back, and finishes (36%). Top control on the cards is 14%, and a stoppage by strikes 8%.

In the other 42, Macy Chiasson keeps the fight at range and uses her size — on the cards (20%) or with a stoppage (14%). A submission is 8%.

Mesquita 58 / Chiasson 42, conviction 4 out of 10. The grappler is the lean; Chiasson's reach is the reason this is not a wider number.

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