Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes: analysis & prediction

CO-MAIN · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE · 5 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Kayla Harrison — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Kayla Harrison

19W1L
Olympic judo
VS
Amanda Nunes — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Amanda Nunes

“The Lioness”
23W5L
Hall of Fame striker

The judo champion against the greatest women's fighter of her era, back after three years away.

Women's BantamweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Harrison wins by turning the first exchange into a clinch, a throw and top control, and no UFC opponent has kept her off yet. Nunes has always won the opening round on the feet and done her own wrestling later, so everything depends on stopping those early entries. If Nunes keeps it standing past the first few minutes, her power and five-round experience come into play.

Paths that change the fight

  • Kayla HarrisonGet to the clinch in the first minute, land the throw or the trip, and hold top position the way she did against Holm, Vieira and Peña. Look for the finish in round two, as in both UFC stoppages.
  • Amanda NunesWin the first round on the feet as she always has, keep Harrison off her hips with the 81% takedown defence, and use her power and reach before the clinch forms. If the fight gets past round three, she has been there six times and Harrison never has in the UFC.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • Eight UFC knockdowns for Nunes, and she has never been knocked down
  • 81% takedown defence against a fighter whose game starts with the takedown

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Kayla Harrison

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
63%
Fair odds
-170
Reference quote
-200 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.59

Amanda Nunes

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
37%
Fair odds
+170
Reference quote
+169 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.70
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities and fair prices (Harrison −170, Nunes +170) are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Five-round women's bantamweight title fight in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Kayla Harrison (19-1, age 36), a two-time Olympic judo champion, won the title by submitting Julianna Peña with a kimura on June 7, 2025. In three UFC fights she has out-landed her opponent in all seven rounds, averaged 8:55 of control per 15 minutes and absorbed just 1.10 significant strikes per minute. Amanda Nunes (23-5, age 38 on fight night) returns from a layoff of more than three years; her last fight was a five-round decision over Irene Aldana on June 10, 2023. Across 18 UFC fights she landed 4.54 per minute, scored eight knockdowns, landed 38 of 67 takedowns and out-landed her opponent in the first round of every one of them. BetOnline has Harrison −200 / Nunes +169. Our read: Harrison 63%, Nunes 37%, conviction 5 out of 10.

Kayla Harrison
Attribute
Amanda Nunes
362-year gap
Age
38
5'8"
Height
5'8"
66"
Reach
+3" Nunes69"
37"
Leg Reach
+4" Nunes41"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
American Top Team
Team
Team Nunes
Apr 13, 2024
Octagon Debut
Aug 3, 2013
3
UFC bouts
18
Champion
UFC ranking
Unranked
Judo (two-time Olympic champion)
Fighting Style
Striker, BJJ black belt

Both are 5'8". Nunes has +3" of reach and +4" of leg reach. Nunes turned 38 in May and is two years older. Harrison is southpaw; Nunes is orthodox. Harrison has three UFC fights and has never gone past round three in the UFC; Nunes has 18 UFC fights, including 12 five-round title fights, not counting her Strikeforce bouts.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden uses the 30-foot Octagon. The extra space helps the longer striker keep her distance, but Harrison's first-round control does not depend on the fence: she has averaged 183 seconds of control in her UFC first rounds.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Kayla Harrison (right) lands a jab on Holly Holm, April 2024

Kayla Harrison

Pro Record
19-1-0
UFC Record
3-0 in three UFC bouts
Streak
Four straight wins — Ladd (PFL), then Holm, Vieira and Peña in the UFC
Finish Rate
74% of wins (14 of 19) — 6 KO/TKO, 8 submissions
Avg Fight Time
10:34
Chin · Opponents have landed 35 significant strikes on her in three UFC fights (1.10 per minute) and no knockdowns. Her only loss is a five-round decision to Larissa Pacheco in 2022.SOS · ChampionshipJudo top-control grappler

Harrison won two PFL tournaments and went 16-1 before joining the UFC, with her only loss a five-round decision to Larissa Pacheco. In the UFC she has not lost a round on the strike count. She took Holly Holm down in the first round, controlled her for 3:49 and choked her in the second; controlled Ketlen Vieira for 7:54 of a fifteen-minute decision; and submitted Julianna Peña with a kimura at 4:55 of round two to win the title. Six of her 16 UFC takedown attempts have landed, and she has spent 59% of her UFC fight time in control. Her last fight was June 7, 2025, so she also comes in after seventeen months out.

Amanda Nunes lands a head kick on Holly Holm, July 2019

Amanda Nunes

Pro Record
23-5-0
UFC Record
16-2 in 18 UFC bouts (Strikeforce not counted)
Streak
Won her last two, both five-round decisions (Peña rematch, Aldana); last fight June 10, 2023
Finish Rate
74% of wins (17 of 23) — 13 KO/TKO, 4 submissions
Avg Fight Time
11:21
Chin · Never knocked down in 18 UFC fights. Stopped twice in her career (Alexis Davis in 2011, Cat Zingano in 2014) and submitted once in the UFC (Peña, 2021).SOS · Hall of FamePower striker with a top game

Nunes went 16-2 in the UFC and held the bantamweight and featherweight titles at the same time. Her UFC fights follow a pattern: she won the first round on the strike count in all 18, finished 14 of her career wins in the first round (Rousey in 0:48, Cyborg in 0:51, Holm with a head kick), and took over later fights on the mat — 38 takedowns in 67 attempts, including six in the Peña rematch and eight against Germaine de Randamie. The one fight that broke the pattern was the first Peña fight: Peña out-landed her in round two and choked her at 3:26. Nunes won the rematch over five rounds, beat Irene Aldana in June 2023 and retired. This is her first fight in more than three years.

Kayla Harrison
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Amanda Nunes
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Kayla Harrisonsignature weapons

ArmbarElkin, Dalziel, Dandois and Guardado, all before the UFC
×4
Chokes and joint locksHolm (rear-naked choke), Peña (kimura, R2 4:55), Jindrová (arm-triangle), Frier (keylock)
×4
PunchesSix TKO wins by punches, all before the UFC
×6

Amanda Nunessignature weapons

Punches and elbowsRousey (0:48), Cyborg (0:51), Gaff, de Randamie and Pennington among eleven punch stoppages
×11
KicksHolm (head kick, R1 4:10) and Baszler (leg kick, R1 1:56)
×2
SubmissionsThree rear-naked chokes (Tate, McMann, Pa'aluhi) and a triangle armbar (Anderson)
×4

Kayla Harrison

W
Julianna Peña
Submission — kimura

Opponent context: elite

R2 (4:55)
UFC 316 — Jun 7, 2025
W
Ketlen Vieira
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC 307 — Oct 5, 2024
W
Holly Holm
Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: elite

R2 (1:47)
UFC 300 — Apr 13, 2024
W
Aspen Ladd
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
PFL — Nov 24, 2023
L
Larissa Pacheco
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R5
PFL — Nov 25, 2022
Pattern

4-1 in the last five and unbeaten since the Pacheco loss in 2022. Both UFC finishes came in round two after a first round spent on top. The Vieira fight is her only UFC third round; she has not fought a fourth.

Amanda Nunes

W
Irene Aldana
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R5
UFC 289 — Jun 10, 2023
W
Julianna Peña
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R5
UFC 277 — Jul 30, 2022
L
Julianna Peña
Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: elite

R2 (3:26)
UFC 269 — Dec 11, 2021
W
Megan Anderson
Submission — triangle armbar

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (2:03)
UFC 259 — Mar 6, 2021
W
Felicia Spencer
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R5
UFC 250 — Jun 6, 2020
Pattern

4-1 in the last five, with three five-round decisions. The loss is the first Peña fight; she won the rematch by out-landing Peña 85-60 and scoring three knockdowns. All five of these fights are more than three years old.

Kayla Harrison

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Amanda Nunes

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both women finish early. Harrison has nine first-round finishes among her 19 wins — eight submissions in total, four of them armbars — and both UFC finishes came in round two. 14 of Nunes's 23 wins came in round one and 13 of her wins are knockouts; her only late finish was a fifth-round stoppage of Raquel Pennington. When neither finishes, Nunes has six decisions, five of them over five rounds; Harrison has five, one of them over five rounds.

Common Opponents

OpponentKaylaAmanda
Julianna PeñaW· kimura R2 4:55 (Jun 7, 2025) — title win; out-landed Peña 30-9L· RNC R2 3:26 (Dec 11, 2021); W · UD5 rematch (Jul 30, 2022)
Peña beat Nunes by out-landing her in round two and taking her back. In the rematch Nunes out-landed her 85-60 with three knockdowns and six takedowns.
Holly HolmW· RNC R2 1:47 (Apr 13, 2024) — 51-2 on significant strikesW· head kick and punches R1 4:10 (Jul 6, 2019)
Harrison took Holm down and controlled her; Nunes knocked her out standing.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

0
Kayla
0
Amanda

Nunes: 4.54 landed per minute at 52%, 2.44 absorbed and eight knockdowns in 18 UFC fights. Harrison: 4.29 at 62% and only 1.10 absorbed, with no knockdowns in three fights.

Grappling

0
Kayla
0
Amanda

Harrison: 6 of 16 takedowns, 8:55 of control per 15 minutes and 53% of her strikes on the ground. Nunes: 38 of 67 takedowns, 81% takedown defence and 5:08 of control per 15.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Kayla
0
Amanda

Average of the two gauges.

MetricKaylaAmanda
Avg fight time10:34 (3 UFC bouts)11:21 (18 UFC bouts)
Rounds out-landed7 of 739 of 47
Standing / clinch / ground29% / 18% / 53%69% / 4% / 28%
Control per 15 min8:555:08
Takedowns landed6 of 1638 of 67

Archetype Base Rate

Judo top-control grappler 63%37% Power striker returning from a layoff

Model read for this matchup · The gauges are close. The lean comes from Harrison's control numbers and activity; conviction stays at 5 because Nunes's power, her own wrestling and Harrison's three-fight UFC record all point the other way.

Kayla HarrisonAmanda Nunes

Women's Bantamweight

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatKaylaKayla comparisonDiv avgAmanda comparisonAmanda
SLpM4.29
+0.26 vs avg
4.03
+0.51 vs avg
4.54
Str Acc62%
+13.60 pp vs avg
48.4%
+3.60 pp vs avg
52%
Str Def66%
+7.50 pp vs avg
58.5%
+0.50 pp vs avg
59%
SApM1.10
-1.93 vs avg
3.03
-0.59 vs avg
2.44
TD/152.84
+1.28 vs avg
1.56
+1.23 vs avg
2.79
TD Acc38% (6 of 16)
—
—
—
57% (38 of 67)
TD Def100% (0 of 2 landed)
—few UFC fights
—
—
81% (6 of 32 landed)
Sub/150.95
+0.61 vs avg
0.34
+0.39 vs avg
0.73
Knockdowns0 dealt / 0 absorbed
—
—
—
8 dealt / 0 absorbed
Avg Fight Time10:34
—
—
—
11:21
Statistical Verdict
The output numbers are close: 4.29 against 4.54 landed per minute, and both take opponents down at almost the same rate. The gaps are in damage and control. Harrison absorbs 1.10 per minute, less than half of Nunes's 2.44 and about a third of the division average, and spends 59% of her fight time in control. Nunes has eight UFC knockdowns and has not been knocked down; she also has 81% takedown defence over 32 attempts.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Kayla Harrison

Control Time per Round (sec)

Kayla Harrison

  • Round one is where she takes over: 183 seconds of control on average and 67.6% of her strikes landed on the ground. Opponents have landed 4.0 per first round on her at 31%.
  • She has out-landed her opponent in all seven of her UFC rounds, and the only control time conceded in the UFC is 15 seconds to Holm.
  • Round two is her finishing round — Holm at 1:47 and Peña at 4:55 — and the round with the most clinch work (33.3% of her strikes). Her one UFC third round (Vieira) produced 23 landed at 72% and 3:06 of control. She has never fought a fourth round in the UFC.

Amanda Nunes

  • She out-landed her opponent in the first round of all 18 UFC fights: 21.8 landed per first round at 52.6%, 0.28 knockdowns, and 32.8% of that output on the ground after early takedowns. Opponents landed 6.7 per first round on her.
  • Round two has been her weakest: opponents land 21.1 per second round at 48%, three times their first-round rate. It is the round Peña out-landed her and choked her in 2021.
  • Her late rounds are wrestling rounds: 103 seconds of control in round four and 213 in round five across six fights that went that far, with 71% of her fifth-round strikes on the ground.
Critical Insight
Both women win by getting on top, but at different times. Harrison's control peaks immediately — 183 seconds per first round — while Nunes starts on the feet, wins the first round on volume and wrestles late, with 213 seconds of control per fifth round. That puts Harrison's best round against the round Nunes has never lost, and Nunes's best rounds in territory Harrison has never reached in the UFC.

Strike targeting

Kayla

Head
71%
Body
20%
Legs
9%

Amanda

Head
68%
Body
13%
Legs
19%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

KaylaAmanda
29%Distance69%
18%Clinch3%
53%Ground28%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open spaceAmanda owns it

69% of Nunes's strikes land at distance, and she has never lost a UFC first round on the strike count.

PocketAmanda owns it

Eight UFC knockdowns for Nunes and none for Harrison — though opponents land only 1.10 per minute on Harrison.

ClinchKayla owns it

18% of Harrison's strikes land in the clinch, where her throws start, against 4% for Nunes.

GroundKayla owns it

Harrison averages 8:55 of control per 15 minutes; Nunes has 81% takedown defence and 5:08 of control of her own.

The Deep Read

Harrison's three UFC fights look almost identical. She closes to the clinch, gets the takedown in the first round and holds position — 3:49 on top of Holm in round one, 2:46 on Vieira, 2:35 on Peña — and then either finishes in round two or keeps doing it for fifteen minutes. Opponents have landed 35 significant strikes on her in 31 minutes of UFC fighting. No one has taken her down, and only two attempts have been made.

Nunes is the first opponent who can match her on both sides of that. Nunes has 81% takedown defence over 32 attempts, has landed 38 takedowns of her own, and has out-landed her opponent in the first round of all 18 UFC fights, with 14 of her 23 career wins coming in round one. She is also 38 and has not fought since June 2023, and round two — the round Harrison finishes in — has historically been Nunes's weakest.

The model leans to Harrison because her edge is control and Nunes's is striking, and control is the harder thing to get back after a three-year break. It stays at 5 because this is the most dangerous opponent Harrison has faced, and because Harrison has never had to fight into a fourth round in the UFC.

Path to Victory

Kayla Harrison

Get to the clinch in the first minute, land the throw or the trip, and hold top position the way she did against Holm, Vieira and Peña. Look for the finish in round two, as in both UFC stoppages.

Why they win
01
Control time

8:55 of control per 15 minutes in the UFC; 59% of her fight time spent on top.

02
Defence

1.10 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 66% striking defence.

03
Submissions

Eight career submission wins, including Holm and Peña in the UFC.

04
Activity

Last fought June 2025; Nunes last fought June 2023.

05
Every round won

Out-landed her opponent in all seven UFC rounds.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Clinch immediately

    Collar ties and underhooks in the first minute of every round.

  2. 2
    Throw, then hold

    Take her down and hold position rather than rush the finish.

  3. 3
    Round-two finish

    Both UFC stoppages came in the second round after a first round spent on top.

  4. 4
    Avoid open exchanges

    Do not trade at range with a fighter who has eight UFC knockdowns.

Path to Victory

Amanda Nunes

Win the first round on the feet as she always has, keep Harrison off her hips with the 81% takedown defence, and use her power and reach before the clinch forms. If the fight gets past round three, she has been there six times and Harrison never has in the UFC.

Why they win
01
Power

Eight UFC knockdowns and 13 KO/TKO wins; never knocked down in the UFC.

02
First rounds

Out-landed her opponent in the first round of all 18 UFC fights.

03
Wrestling both ways

38 of 67 takedowns landed and 81% takedown defence.

04
Reach

+3" reach and +4" leg reach.

05
Five-round experience

Twelve five-round title fights; Harrison has never fought a fourth round in the UFC.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Win round one standing

    Straight punches and kicks at range, as in all 18 UFC first rounds.

  2. 2
    Sprawl and frame

    Keep her hips away from Harrison's clinch entries.

  3. 3
    Punish entries

    Counter Harrison's level changes with the knee or right hand.

  4. 4
    Take the late rounds

    Use her own wrestling in rounds four and five, where she has done her best work.

Danger Zone

How Kayla Harrison loses

  • The first takedown is stuffed and she spends round one at the end of Nunes's reach.

  • She is dropped early, as Holm and Cyborg were, before the clinch forms.

  • The fight reaches rounds four and five, where she has no UFC experience and Nunes does her best wrestling.

Danger Zone

How Amanda Nunes loses

  • The first clinch becomes a throw and she spends round one under Harrison, as Holm did.

  • Round two — her weakest round, and Harrison's finishing round — ends with a submission.

  • The three-year layoff shows in timing and cardio early.

Shared opponent, different lessons

The Peña reference

Peña beat Nunes in 2021 by out-landing her in round two and taking her back. Nunes won the rematch 85-60 on significant strikes with three knockdowns. Harrison controlled Peña for 6:05 and finished her with a kimura.

Peña
on both records
18 of 18

Nunes never loses round one

Nunes out-landed her opponent in the first round of every UFC fight, and 14 of her 23 career wins came in round one. Harrison has also never lost a UFC first round and averages three minutes on top in it.

18 of 18
UFC first rounds won by Nunes
Why Nunes is the underdog

Three years and five months

Nunes has not fought since June 10, 2023. Harrison has fought three times in the UFC since then.

41 months
Nunes's layoff by fight night
Harrison has never been there

Untested late

Harrison has never fought a fourth round in the UFC. Nunes has fought 12 five-round title fights and averaged 213 seconds of control in the six fifth rounds she reached.

0
UFC fourth rounds for Harrison

The Five-Round Clock

Kayla Harrison danger windowAmanda Nunes danger windowNeutral / contested
R1Both women's best round

Harrison averages 183 seconds of control in round one; Nunes has never lost a UFC first round and has 14 first-round finishes.

Critical Insight
Early rounds favour whoever wins the first clinch. If the fight is still going in round four, it moves into rounds Nunes knows and Harrison has not seen in the UFC.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Harrison is favoured on control: she has spent 59% of her UFC fight time on top and absorbed just 1.10 strikes per minute.

2

Nunes is the most dangerous opponent Harrison has faced — eight UFC knockdowns, 81% takedown defence and a perfect record in UFC first rounds — but she has not fought since June 2023.

3

BetOnline −200 / +169 sits almost exactly on our fair line, so there is no clear value on either side.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Harrison Submission — 28%Harrison Decision — 22%Harrison KO/TKO — 13%Nunes KO/TKO — 20%Nunes Decision — 12%Nunes Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Kayla Harrison gold · Amanda Nunes orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Control time

8:55 of control per 15 minutes for Harrison, and no UFC opponent has kept her off.

The layoff

More than three years since Nunes last fought keeps her at 37%.

Nunes's defence and power

81% takedown defence, eight knockdowns and 18 of 18 first rounds won.

Harrison's sample

Her elite rates come from three UFC fights and 31.7 minutes.

Late rounds

Harrison has never fought a fourth round in the UFC; Nunes has twelve five-round title fights.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Peña kimura

Harrison forces the clinch, takes Nunes down and finishes by submission, most often in round two.

Scripted outcomes for Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Kayla Harrison win probability
0%
13%
22%
28%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Ground strikes from top position. Six career KO/TKO wins, none in the UFC.

  • Control without the finish — the Vieira fight, stretched to five rounds.

  • Largest bucket. Holm's choke and Peña's kimura both came in round two.

Amanda Nunes win probability
0%
20%
12%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Largest Nunes bucket: early power before the clinch forms.

  • Wins the standing rounds and wrestles late, as she did against Aldana and Peña.

  • Four career submissions; smallest branch.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Kayla
R2
Kayla
R3
Kayla
R4
Kayla
R5
Amanda
49-46 Harrison
Control through four rounds; Nunes wrestles back in the fifth
Most likely card inside Harrison's 22% decision share
48-47 Harrison
Nunes also takes the first round on the feet
Closer card if the first clinch is stuffed
Inside R2
Harrison's finishing round
Most of the 28% submission share

Model and price

Kayla Harrison

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
63%
Fair odds
-170
Reference quote
-200 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.59
Estimated EV
-5.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
-1.2 pp

Amanda Nunes

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
37%
Fair odds
+170
Reference quote
+169 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.70
Estimated EV
-0.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
+1.2 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Kayla Harrison

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.59 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Amanda Nunes

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.71 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans8 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (8)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Harrison by decision+355Fair odds22.0%22%+3554.55 decimal+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Fight does not go the distance-194Fair odds66.0%66%-1941.52 decimal+0.0+0.0%Fair price
Nunes by KO/TKO+400Fair odds20.0%20%+4005.00 decimal0.00.0%Fair price
Nunes by submission+1900Fair odds5.0%5%+190020.00 decimal0.00.0%Fair price
Harrison by KO/TKO+669Fair odds13.0%13%+6697.69 decimal-0.0-0.0%Fair price
Nunes by decision+733Fair odds12.0%12%+7338.33 decimal-0.0-0.0%Fair price
Harrison by submission+257Fair odds28.0%28%+2573.57 decimal-0.0-0.0%Fair price
Fight goes the distance+194Fair odds34.0%34%+1942.94 decimal-0.0-0.0%Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

The moneyline matches our read, so neither side is a value bet at −200 / +169. If method props open, Harrison by submission (28%, fair +257) is the one to watch, because that is how both of her UFC finishes came.

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A modest lean. Control time, defence and activity carry Harrison to 63. Nunes's power, her own wrestling and Harrison's three-fight UFC record keep conviction at 5 out of 10. Lean: Kayla Harrison.

What backs the lean

  • 8:55 of control per 15 minutes and 59% of her UFC fight time on top

  • 1.10 significant strikes absorbed per minute

  • Eight career submissions, including Holm and Peña in the UFC

  • Nunes has not fought since June 2023

  • Round two, Harrison's finishing round, has been Nunes's weakest

What limits it

  • Eight UFC knockdowns for Nunes, and she has never been knocked down

  • 81% takedown defence against a fighter whose game starts with the takedown

  • Nunes has won the first round of all 18 UFC fights

  • Twelve five-round title fights for Nunes; Harrison has never fought a fourth round in the UFC

  • Harrison's UFC numbers come from three fights

Final Assessment

In roughly 63 of 100 readings, Kayla Harrison makes this a grappling fight. She gets to the clinch, takes Nunes down and holds her there, finishing by submission (28%) — most often in round two, as she did against Holm and Peña — or winning a decision on control (22%), with a smaller share of ground-and-pound stoppages (13%). Her 1.10 absorbed per minute is why she is favoured even against the best striker the division has had, though it comes from three UFC fights.

In the other 37, Amanda Nunes wins the first round on the feet as she has in all 18 UFC fights, stops Harrison's entries with her 81% takedown defence and lands the knockout (20%), or wins a decision by taking the late rounds (12%). The submission branch is 5%. The three-year layoff is why she is 37% rather than even; the fact that she is still Amanda Nunes is why she is not lower.

Harrison 63 / Nunes 37, conviction 5 out of 10. The pick is Harrison. BetOnline's −200 / +169 is in line with our fair −170 / +170, so this is a fight to watch rather than one to bet.

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