Judo title holder against the Lioness returning from a multi-year layoff.
Fight overview
Harrison wins if 2.84 TD/15 becomes the Holm choke and Peña kimura. Nunes wins if 82% takedown defence and 0.63 KD/15 keep this standing after three years away. No defending label is assigned; Harrison is the title holder after Peña, and Nunes vacated in June 2023.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Rate lines were compiled September 22, 2026. Harrison born July 2, 1990; Nunes born May 30, 1988 — fight-night age 38 (an older listing still printed 37 as of September 22). UFC bout counts 3 and 18 (Strikeforce excluded). Per-round strike tables omitted. BetOnline Harrison −200 / Nunes +169. Fair American from 63/37: Harrison −170, Nunes +170. Projections are editorial.
Model methodologyWhat this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
Five-round bout booked for the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Kayla Harrison (19-1, card rank #1, age 36) is a judo Olympian at American Top Team. She is the title holder after submitting Julianna Peña on June 7, 2025. This page does not add a defending label. Her UFC rate line, three bouts, is 4.29 SLpM, 62% accuracy, 66% striking defence, 1.10 SApM, 2.84 TD/15, 37% takedown accuracy, 100% takedown defence and 0.9 Sub/15. Amanda Nunes (23-5, unranked, fight-night age 38) last fought a five-round decision over Irene Aldana on June 10, 2023, after which she vacated. Her rate line is 4.55 SLpM, 51% accuracy, 57% striking defence, 2.62 SApM, 2.73 TD/15, 82% takedown defence and 0.63 knockdowns per 15. BetOnline September 22, 2026: Harrison −200 / Nunes +169. Editorial read: Harrison 63%, Nunes 37%, conviction 5 out of 10.
Both are listed at 5'8". Nunes is +3" in reach and +4" in leg reach. Nunes was born May 30, 1988, so she is 38 on fight night, two years older than Harrison. Harrison is southpaw. Nunes is orthodox. Harrison's UFC sample is 3 bouts. Nunes's UFC sample is 18 (Strikeforce excluded). The pair is medium reliability because Harrison is under five Octagon fights.
Venue FactorMadison Square Garden is a 30-foot cage. Extra space helps the longer striker. Harrison's judo needs ties. Nunes's 69-inch reach is the tool that keeps those ties from being free.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
Entire UFC log is three wins: Holly Holm, rear-naked choke, Round 2, 1:47 (April 13, 2024); Ketlen Vieira, unanimous decision (October 5, 2024); Julianna Peña, kimura, Round 2, 4:55 (June 7, 2025), the bout in which she won the women's bantamweight title. Before the UFC she was a two-time PFL tournament champion and a two-time Olympic judo gold medalist. Layoff from June 7, 2025 is about 17 months.
Her record runs through the Aldana decision and she vacated in June 2023. Peña submitted her with a rear-naked choke at 3:26 of round two on December 11, 2021; Nunes won the rematch by five-round unanimous decision on July 30, 2022. Harrison later submitted that same Peña. The last two wins were five-round decisions, and then she stopped for more than three years.
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: ranked
Opponent context: elite
3-0 in the UFC. 19-1 as a pro. UFC finishes are round two: Holm at 1:47, Peña at 4:55. The Vieira fight went three rounds. There is no five-round Harrison sample in the UFC. A fourth and fifth UFC line are not invented.
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: ranked
Opponent context: ranked
Last two wins were five-round decisions, and then she stopped for more than three years. The Peña series is the shared reference: choked once, outpointed once. Harrison kimura'd that same Peña.
Critical InsightMethod charts: Harrison 6 KO / 8 Sub / 5 Dec of 19; Nunes 13 / 4 / 6 of 23. Arithmetic: 6+8+5=19 and 13+4+6=23. Round bars are named finishes — Harrison's UFC finishes in round two; Nunes's Holm and Anderson in round one. Decision totals are career chart.
| Opponent | Kayla | Amanda |
|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | W· kimura R2 4:55 (Jun 7, 2025) — title win | L· RNC R2 3:26 (Dec 11, 2021); W · UD5 rematch (Jul 30, 2022) |
| Shared name, opposite lessons. Not a transitive lock. | ||
| Holly Holm | W· RNC R2 1:47 (Apr 13, 2024) | W· strikes R1 4:10 (Jul 6, 2019) |
| Both finished Holm. Nunes standing in round one; Harrison with a choke in round two. Holm is not the level of this matchup. | ||
Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Nunes: 4.55 / 51% / 57% def / 2.62 absorbed / 0.63 KD. Harrison: 4.29 / 62% / 66% def / 1.10 absorbed / 0.00 KD, three-fight sample.
Harrison 2.84 TD/15, 37% TD accuracy, 0.9 Sub/15, 53% ground strikes. Nunes 54% TD accuracy, 82% TDD and 2.73 TD/15 of her own.
(Striking + Grappling) / 2
Editorial average of the two gauges.
Harrison's last fight is June 2025. Nunes's is June 2023.
Grappling role plus activity, discounted by a three-fight UFC sample and Nunes's power.
| Metric | Kayla | Amanda |
|---|---|---|
| Striking accuracy | 62% | 51% |
| Standing / clinch / ground | 29% / 18% / 53% | 68% / 5% / 27% |
| Average fight time | 10:34 | 10:44 |
| UFC bouts | 3 | 18 |
| Card rank | #1 | Unranked |
Editorial read of this booking, not an archetype database row · The 63/37 is that archetype. Conviction stays at 5 because Nunes's 82% takedown defence and 13 knockout wins are not a normal underdog profile, and Harrison's rates are three fights old.
| Stat | Kayla | Kayla rank | Div avg | Amanda rank | Amanda |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 4.29 | — | — | — | 4.55 |
| Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise. | 62% | — | — | — | 51% |
| Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit. | 66% | — | — | — | 57% |
| SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better. | 1.10 | — | — | — | 2.62 |
| TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine. | 2.84 | — | — | — | 2.73 |
| TD Acc | 37% | — | — | — | 54% |
| TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed. | 100% | — | — | — | 82% |
| Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat. | 0.9 | — | — | — | 0.7 |
| KD/15 | 0.00 | — | — | — | 0.63 |
| Card rank | #1 | — | — | — | Unranked |
Statistical VerdictOutput per minute is close. Damage is not. Harrison absorbs 1.10 and lands 53% of her strikes on the ground. Nunes absorbs 2.62, knocks people down, and lands 68% of her strikes standing. Nunes's 82% takedown defence is the cell that can keep this a kickboxing fight.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightIf Nunes is going to win by knockout, her log says round one is the historical pocket. If Harrison is going to win by submission, her UFC log says round two. A fight that is still standing in round four is new territory for Harrison and familiar territory for Nunes.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
+3" reach and 68% standing strikes. Nunes's home until ties form.
0.63 KD/15 against a three-fight UFC shell. Harrison's 66% defence is the answer, not a guarantee.
18% of Harrison's strikes are clinch. Judo entries live here.
53% of Harrison's strikes already on the ground against Nunes's 27%.
They want different rooms. Harrison's offence is already a top-game. Nunes's offence is a standing knockout game that can also land on the mat. The fight is whether Nunes's 82% takedown defence keeps Harrison's 53% ground share from appearing.
Nunes has not fought since June 10, 2023. Ring rust is not a vibe here. It is a three-year gap against a woman who has been finishing ranked bantamweights. That is why a 23-5 Hall of Famer is the underdog on this card.
Force ties, get the fight to the mat, and convert 2.84 TD/15 into the control and submissions that beat Holm and Peña. Do not spend five rounds at the end of a 69-inch reach.
Eight career submission wins and two UFC finishes by submission, including Peña.
1.10 SApM and 66% striking defence in the UFC sample.
53% of her strikes already come on the ground.
Last fight June 2025, not June 2023. Kimura of the woman who once submitted Nunes.
Collar and inside position immediately. Do not kickbox at range for the first two minutes of every round.
2.84 TD/15 into control and the kimura or choke.
Use +3" reach and 0.63 KD/15 before the clinch becomes a throw. Her 82% takedown defence is the whole upset if it holds after three years away.
+3" reach, +4" leg reach.
Thirteen knockout wins and 0.63 KD/15.
82% against a woman whose whole game is the throw.
Eighteen UFC bouts and a proven five-round championship clock. Harrison's 100% TDD can break.
Long 1-2, exit on an angle, punish naked level changes.
The layoff means the first round is both her best finish window and her rust window.
She kickboxes at range for empty minutes and eats an early Nunes knockout.
Throws fail for five rounds and Nunes's decision share writes the card.
The first clinch becomes a throw and the Peña/Holm submission window opens in round two.
Ring rust shows in round one before the power arrives.
Peña choked Nunes, lost the rematch on the cards, and was kimura'd by Harrison. That is a reference, not a transitive lock. The layoff is the larger Nunes variable.
Nunes has not fought since June 10, 2023. Harrison last fought June 7, 2025. Activity is why the lean exists.
Harrison medium (3 UFC bouts), Nunes large (18). Short sample cuts both ways: Harrison's 1.10 SApM may not survive Nunes, and Nunes's 82% TDD may not survive a judoka who has not been in a UFC five-round fight yet.
Holm and Anderson finished in round one. Also the rust window after three years.
Critical InsightEarly knockout or a round-two submission. A fight still standing in round four is new territory for Harrison and familiar territory for Nunes.
Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.
One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction
Harrison 63 / Nunes 37. The lean is judo control and activity, not a dismissal of 13 knockout wins.
Nunes's live number is the early knockout at 20%. Her 82% takedown defence is the whole upset if it holds.
BetOnline −200 / +169 is in line with 63/37. Fair: Harrison −170 / Nunes +170. No clean overlay.
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Kayla Harrison gold · Amanda Nunes orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
Eight career submissions and two UFC finishes, including Peña.
Three years and five months since Aldana keeps Nunes at 37% instead of a coin flip.
The cell that can keep this a kickboxing fight.
Harrison's elite rates and 100% TDD are three fights old.
Harrison forces ties and finishes by submission, most often in the round-two window her UFC finishes share.
Scripted outcomes for Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes — how each version of this fight unfolds.
Ground strikes. Six career KO wins, none in the three UFC fights.
Control without the finish — the Vieira path in a five-round fight.
Largest bucket. Peña kimura and Holm choke.
Live upset and largest Nunes bucket. Early boxing path.
Five-round kickboxing if the throws fail.
Four career subs. Lowest branch.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.59 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.71 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Analyst prop read
No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.
Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.
| Prop | Reference quote | Implied % | Model % | Fair decimal odds | Difference (pp) | Estimated EV | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison by decision | +355Fair odds | 22.0% | 22% | 4.55 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Fight does not go the distance | -194Fair odds | 66.0% | 66% | 1.52 | +0.0 | +0.0% | Fair price |
| Nunes by KO/TKO | +400Fair odds | 20.0% | 20% | 5.00 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Fair price |
| Nunes by submission | +1900Fair odds | 5.0% | 5% | 20.00 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Fair price |
| Harrison by KO/TKO | +669Fair odds | 13.0% | 13% | 7.69 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Nunes by decision | +733Fair odds | 12.0% | 12% | 8.33 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Harrison by submission | +257Fair odds | 28.0% | 28% | 3.57 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Fight goes the distance | +194Fair odds | 34.0% | 34% | 2.94 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
The moneyline is in line with 63/37. If there is a prop to care about later, it is Harrison by submission at 28%, because that is the identity of her UFC wins.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
A modest lean. Judo control and relative activity carry Harrison to 63. Nunes's power, reach, 82% takedown defence and a three-fight Harrison sample keep conviction at 5 out of 10. Lean: Kayla Harrison.
Eight career submissions and two UFC finishes by submission, including Peña
1.10 absorbed and 66% striking defence in the UFC sample
53% of her strikes already come on the ground
She has fought since 2025. Nunes has not fought since 2023
Nunes was submitted by the same Peña that Harrison kimura'd
Thirteen knockout wins and 0.63 knockdowns per 15 minutes
82% takedown defence against a woman whose whole game is the throw
Three extra inches of reach and four of leg reach
Eighteen UFC bouts and a proven five-round clock
Harrison's elite rates are three fights, and 100% takedown defence is the first number that can break
In roughly 63 of 100 readings, Kayla Harrison makes this a judo fight: submission (28%), most likely in round two the way Holm and Peña went, or a control decision (22%) if the finish does not land, with a smaller ground-and-pound knockout share (13%). The 1.10 absorption rate is why she is favored even against the best striker the division has ever had. That rate has three fights under it.
In the other 37, Amanda Nunes keeps the fight standing with 82% takedown defence and wins by knockout (20%), usually early, or by decision (12%) if her power is there and the finish is not. The submission branch is 5%. The thing that makes 37% instead of a coin flip is the layoff. The thing that keeps it from being 75-25 is that the woman on the other side of the layoff is still Amanda Nunes.
Harrison 63 / Nunes 37, conviction 5 out of 10. BetOnline −200 / +169 is in line with that split. The pick is Harrison. The price is not a gift. Harrison is the title holder after Peña; Nunes vacated in June 2023. This page does not assign who is defending. Fight-night age for Nunes is 38.
