Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Drew Dober

29W15L

Southpaw Power

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

15W3L

Wrestle / Choke

Two knockout wins against a submission grappler who just lost by choke

LightweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Southpaw finisher on two straight knockouts against a grappler whose last fight was a Moicano rear-naked choke loss — Torres is a Dober loss, not a misleading Win.

Paths that change the fight

Drew DoberSouthpaw left hand, the punch that stopped Johnson, and do not shoot. 16% takedown accuracy is not a weapon. 58% takedown defence has to be good enough that Duncan cannot live on top the way he did against McKinney. The wins are knockouts. Believe that.
Chris DuncanWrestle. 2.92 TD/15 is the edge the striking table does not show. The anaconda of McKinney is the finish. The Moicano loss is the warning: a better submission fighter can reverse that script in round two.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

2.92 TD/15 against a man who completes takedowns at 16%
He submitted Terrance McKinney in round one

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Drew Dober

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 54%
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Reference quote—

Chris Duncan

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 46%
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines and fight logs were compiled September 22, 2026. Torres (Dober) and Moicano (Duncan) are treated as losses, not misleading Wins. Per-round strike tables omitted. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are editorial estimates, not observed outcomes. Unavailable measurements are not zeros.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round lightweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Drew Dober is 29-15 (1 NC), fight-night age 38, southpaw, 5'8" with a 70" reach. Rate line: 4.48 SLpM, 41% accuracy, 53% striking defence, 4.33 SApM, 0.61 TD/15 at 16%, 58% takedown defence and 0.1 Sub/15. Seventeen of his wins are knockouts and five are submissions, and he has not won a decision since 2018. His last two results are knockout wins. Manuel Torres stopped him — a misleading Win tag on that night was rejected; it is a loss. Chris "The Problem" Duncan is 15-3, fight-night age 33, orthodox, 5'10" with a 71" reach. Matchup line: 4.83 SLpM, 45% accuracy, 50% striking defence, 4.57 SApM, 2.92 TD/15 at 40%, 55% takedown defence and 0.6 Sub/15. Method chart of the 15 wins is 7 KO / 4 decision / 4 submission. He was submitted by Renato Moicano on April 4, 2026. A misleading Win tag on that night was rejected — the official result is a rear-naked choke. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Dober 54% / Duncan 46% at conviction 4 / 10.

Drew Dober

Attribute

Chris Duncan

Age

Oct 19, 1988 vs May 10, 199333

5'8"

Height

+2" Duncan5'10"

70"

Reach

+1" Duncan71"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

#34

Card Rank

#36

Announced SOS

UFC Sample

Southpaw KO pressure

Fighting Style

Wrestle to choke

Duncan is +2" in height and +1" in reach, five years younger. Dober is the southpaw. Neither man has a long-range kickboxing build. The pair is a large UFC sample. Announced strength of schedule is almost a tie, 29 against 31.

Venue Factor
Thirty feet gives Dober a lane for the left hand and gives Duncan room to set the level change. Dober's takedown rate is 0.61 at 16% accuracy. If this becomes a wrestling fight, it will be because Duncan wanted it.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Drew Dober

Pro Record

29-15-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

27 sample-file bouts

Streak

Two straight knockout wins after Torres KO loss (misleading Win tag ignored)

Finish Rate

17 KO wins, 5 submission wins; no decision win since 2018

Avg Fight Time

Recent finishes: Johnson R2 1:53, Prepolec R3 1:16, Torres loss R1 1:45

Chin · Stopped by Torres in round one on the ground; durable enough to trade with JohnsonSOS · Announced 29Southpaw Finisher

Dober has not won by decision since 2018. His last two results are knockout wins over Michael Johnson and Kyle Prepolec. Manuel Torres stopped him in round one — a misleading Win tag on that night was rejected; this page uses the loss.

Chris Duncan

Pro Record

15-3-0

UFC Record

8 sample-file bouts

Streak

Submission loss to Moicano after anaconda of McKinney (misleading Win tag on Moicano ignored)

Finish Rate

Method chart: 7 KO / 4 Dec / 4 Sub of 15 wins

Avg Fight Time

McKinney R1 2:30; Moicano R2 3:14; Rebecki went 15:00

Chin · Submitted by Moicano; can end fights immediately and be submitted once a specialist has the neckSOS · Announced 31Submission Grappler

Duncan choked Terrance McKinney with an anaconda, then lost by rear-naked choke to Renato Moicano. A misleading Win tag on Moicano was rejected; the official result is a loss. Win chart 7/4/4. Striking rates are fine and they are not why he is ranked next to Dober.

Drew Dober

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Chris Duncan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Drew Dobersignature weapons

Southpaw Left HandJohnson R2 punch; Prepolec R3 punches — current finishing identity

×2

Pressure Boxing17 career KO wins; no decision win since 2018

×0

Chris Duncansignature weapons

2.92 TD/15Wrestling edge the striking table does not show — 40% accuracy vs Dober's 16%

×0

Anaconda / Neck HuntingMcKinney R1 2:30 — live upset at 22% submission

×1

Drew Dober

Michael Johnson

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (1:53)

Mar 7, 2026

Kyle Prepolec

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (1:16)

Oct 18, 2025

Manuel Torres

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:45)

Mar 29, 2025

Pattern

Dober is 2-1 in the verified window, all finishes. Torres put him down and finished on the ground in under two minutes — a loss, not a misleading Win. Johnson and Prepolec were the other side of that same kind of night.

Chris Duncan

Renato Moicano

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (3:14)

Apr 4, 2026

Terrance McKinney

Submission — Anaconda choke

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (2:30)

Dec 6, 2025

Mateusz Rebecki

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Aug 2, 2025

Pattern

Duncan is 2-1, with the Moicano loss the most recent. He choked McKinney; Moicano choked him. Widget win tags on Moicano are ignored.

Drew Dober

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Chris Duncan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
This is a finisher against a finisher. Dober's path is the punch (17 career KO wins). Duncan's path is the neck (McKinney anaconda), unless he tries to box a southpaw who has stopped his last two opponents. Decisions are only 16% combined in the simulation.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Drew	Chris
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Announced 29 — Card ranks #34 vs #36 — a slot apart	Announced 31 — Slightly harder announced SOS; ranks a slot apart from Dober
UFC sample	27 sample-file bouts	8 sample-file bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 1 veteran tier	1 elite · 2 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (7 vs 4 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Michael Johnson, Kyle Prepolec, Manuel Torres	Renato Moicano, Terrance McKinney, Mateusz Rebecki

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Drew

Chris

Similar output. Dober's last two wins are knockouts. Duncan absorbs 4.57 at 50% defence

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Drew

Chris

Dober 0.61 TD/15 at 16% and 0.1 Sub/15. Duncan 2.92 TD/15 and a fresh anaconda

Form

Sample

UFC bouts

Drew

Chris

27 UFC bouts against 8. Both clear the large-sample line

Overall

Editorial blend

Drew

Chris

Form and power, not a grappling argument — 54/46 because finishes have been Dober's lately

Metric	Drew	Chris
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.48	4.83
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	41%	45%
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.61	2.92
TD Acc	16%	40%
UFC Sample	27	8

Archetype Base Rate

Southpaw Finisher 54%46% Submission Grappler

Editorial prior from two KO wins vs Moicano loss and 2.92 TD/15 · Finisher against finisher by a short margin. Conviction held at 4 because the choke is close.

Drew DoberChris Duncan

Lightweight

Stat	Drew	Drew rank	Div avg	Chris rank	Chris
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.48	—	—	—	4.83
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	41%	—	—	—	45%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	53%	—	—	—	50%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.33	—	—	—	4.57
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.61	—	—	—	2.92
TD Acc	16%	—	—	—	40%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	58%	—	—	—	55%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.1	—	—	—	0.6
Reach	70"	—	—	—	71"
Prior UFC bouts	27	—	—	—	8
Card rank	#34	—	—	—	#36

Statistical Verdict
The striking table is close. Duncan lands a bit more and absorbs a bit more. The separation is wrestling and recent method. Dober's takedown accuracy is 16%. Duncan's is 40%, at nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. A fight that stays standing is Dober's. A fight that hits the mat is the fight Duncan just won and just lost.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Drew Dober

Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
Dober's last three finishes were 1:53 of round two, 1:16 of round three, and, in the Torres loss, 1:45 of round one.
He does not need the championship round of a three-round fight, and he has also been finished before the first round ends.

Chris Duncan

Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
Duncan's anaconda was 2:30 of round one. Moicano's choke was 3:14 of round two. Rebecki went 15:00.
He can end a fight immediately and he can be submitted once a specialist has the neck.

Critical Insight
Dober's recent pattern is a violent striking fight with a finish, win or loss. Duncan's recent pattern is submission grappling. They have not fought each other. Moicano is not used as a transitive pick against Dober.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Drew · N/AChris · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDrew owns it

Southpaw left hand lane in 30 feet

Pocket / ExchangesDrew owns it

Two straight KO wins — Johnson template

ClinchChris owns it

Level-change entries — do not wrestle at 16% Acc

GroundChris owns it

2.92 TD/15 and 0.6 Sub/15 — McKinney path

The Deep Read

This is a finisher against a finisher. Dober's current form is two knockouts. Duncan's current form is a choke win and a choke loss. Torres is a Dober loss. Moicano is a Duncan loss. Widget win tags on both nights are ignored.

The striking table is close. The separation is wrestling and recent method. A fight that stays standing is Dober's. A fight that hits the mat is the fight Duncan just won and just lost.

The puncher on a finish streak is the lean. The choke is close enough that this is not a pick to stretch. Conviction 4 out of 10.

Path to Victory

Drew Dober

Southpaw left hand, the punch that stopped Johnson, and do not shoot. 16% takedown accuracy is not a weapon. 58% takedown defence has to be good enough that Duncan cannot live on top the way he did against McKinney. The wins are knockouts. Believe that.

Why they win

Two straight knockouts

Johnson and Prepolec — current finishing form.

17 career KO wins

Compiled count; no decision win since 2018.

Southpaw pressure

Difference when it stays standing against close striking rates.

27 UFC fights

Sample depth against 8.

The gameplan

1
Hands and pressure
Exit the clinch. A wrestling exchange at 16% accuracy is Duncan's round.
2
Do not shoot
16% takedown accuracy is not a weapon.
3
Believe the knockouts
The wins are knockouts — Johnson template.

Path to Victory

Chris Duncan

Wrestle. 2.92 TD/15 is the edge the striking table does not show. The anaconda of McKinney is the finish. The Moicano loss is the warning: a better submission fighter can reverse that script in round two.

Why they win

2.92 TD/15 at 40%

Against a man who completes takedowns at 16%.

McKinney anaconda

Round-one choke of a first-round finisher.

+2" height, younger

33 vs 38; ranks a slot apart.

Four submission wins

On the method chart of 15.

The gameplan

1
Shoot early
Ride, hunt the choke. 2.92 TD/15 is the edge.
2
Do not box
Boxing a southpaw who just stopped Johnson is the Torres risk in reverse.
3
Remember Moicano
A better submission fighter can reverse the script in round two.

Danger Zone

How Drew Dober loses

Torres replication — finished early on the ground.
McKinney sequence — Duncan lives on top and finds the neck.
Wrestling exchange at 16% accuracy — Duncan's round.

Danger Zone

How Chris Duncan loses

Boxing a southpaw who just stopped Michael Johnson.
Moicano script — ends up on the wrong end of a choke.
Standing pocket war where Dober's power arrives first.

Torres and Moicano

Widget Losses

Misleading Win tags on Torres (Dober) and Moicano (Duncan) were rejected. Official results are a KO/TKO loss and a rear-naked choke loss. This page uses the losses.

mis-tagged losses

Recent methods

Finish Streak vs Choke Script

Dober's last two are knockouts. Duncan's last two measured results are an anaconda win and a choke loss.

2-0

Dober KO streak

2.92 vs 0.61

Wrestling Separation

Duncan's takedown rate at 40% accuracy is the edge the striking table does not show. Dober completes shots at 16%.

2.92

Duncan TD/15

16% combined

Decisions Are Rare

Dober has not won a decision since 2018. Simulation puts combined decisions at 16%. Both recent résumés say this ends.

84%

inside the distance

The Five-Round Clock

Drew Dober danger windowChris Duncan danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Power or shot

Torres ended Dober here. McKinney anaconda ended for Duncan here. First five minutes cut both ways.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Dober's equity is upright southpaw power. Duncan's equity is early level changes into the McKinney choke — with Moicano as the reverse script.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Dober's two knockout wins define the lean; Duncan's 2.92 TD/15 and McKinney choke define the ceiling.

Model: Dober 54% / Duncan 46%, conviction 4/10 — fair prices −117 / +117. Torres and Moicano are losses. No BetOnline quote on the September 22 board.

Best lean: Dober by KO/TKO at 36%. Duncan by submission at 22% is the live other side.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Dober KO/TKO — 36%Dober Decision — 8%Dober Submission — 10%Duncan KO/TKO — 16%Duncan Decision — 8%Duncan Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Drew Dober gold · Chris Duncan orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Two straight knockouts

Johnson and Prepolec — current form on the lean.

Moicano loss

Duncan's last fight was a rear-naked choke — misleading Win ignored.

2.92 TD/15

Wrestling keeps Duncan live at 46%.

Torres loss

Dober was finished in round one — misleading Win ignored.

Sample depth

27 UFC fights against 8.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Johnson Left

Dober makes it a striking fight and lands the southpaw power — largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Drew Dober win probability

36%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Thirty-six points — Johnson and Prepolec path.
Eight points — small; no decision win since 2018.
Ten points — five career submission wins; UFC rate 0.1.

Chris Duncan win probability

16%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Sixteen points — seven of fifteen on the chart; not the recent pattern.
Eight points — Rebecki was the last decision.
Twenty-two points — McKinney path. Main upset.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Drew

Chris

Drew

29-28 Dober

Two striking rounds; one wrestling round for Duncan

Inside Dober's small 8% decision share

29-28 Duncan

Takedown minutes without a choke

Inside Duncan's 8% decision bucket

30-27 Dober

Full fifteen of southpaw pressure without a finish

Unlikely — neither recent résumé loves decisions

Model and price

Drew Dober

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 54%
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Chris Duncan

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 46%
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Drew Dober

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Chris Duncan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Dober by KO/TKO at 36% (fair +178). Duncan by submission at 22% (fair +355) is the live other side. Fight goes the distance 16% (fair +525); does not go the distance 84% (fair −525).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The puncher on a finish streak is the lean. The choke is close enough that this is not a pick to stretch. Conviction 4/10. Lean: Drew Dober.

What backs the lean

Two straight knockout wins, and a career chart built on knockouts
Duncan's last fight was a submission loss
Striking output is close, and the southpaw power is the difference when it stays standing
27 UFC fights against 8

What limits it

2.92 TD/15 against a man who completes takedowns at 16%
He submitted Terrance McKinney in round one
Younger, slightly bigger, and the ranks are a slot apart
Dober was himself finished in round one by Torres

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 readings, Drew Dober makes it a striking fight, lands the southpaw power, and wins by KO/TKO (36%). The decision and submission shares are 8% and 10%. Johnson is the template.

In the other 46, Chris Duncan gets the fight down and wins by submission (22%) or a KO/TKO (16%). McKinney is the template. Moicano is the reason that template can break.

Dober 54 / Duncan 46, conviction 4 out of 10. The puncher on a finish streak is the lean. The choke is close enough that this is not a pick to stretch.

Back to UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Card