Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Drew Dober

29W15L

Southpaw Power

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

15W3L

Front-Headlock Chokes

Three shared opponents, two finishers, very few decisions

LightweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Dober and Duncan were both finished quickly by Manuel Torres and both beat Terrance McKinney in round one, so this looks like a fight that ends early. Dober's recent wins came from his hands on the feet; Duncan's finishes came from front-headlock chokes. The first scramble decides whose finish arrives first.

Paths that change the fight

Drew DoberMake it a fistfight at range. Every UFC win Dober has had since 2018 is a knockout, and his ten UFC knockdowns say the southpaw power travels. Keep the head up on entries so Duncan's front-headlock chokes never find a neck, stay off the fence, and let the heavier punches decide exchanges before the wrestling does.
Chris DuncanMix the level change into the striking and make Dober carry weight. Duncan's UFC finishes are chokes from the front headlock, and Dober has been submitted four times in the UFC. Takedown attempts force Dober to defend, defending exposes the neck, and the longer the fight goes the more Duncan's late-round output and control come into play.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Duncan lands 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes; Dober lands 0.61
Dober has four UFC submission losses, and Duncan's UFC finishes are all chokes

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Drew Dober

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: +140 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Chris Duncan

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: -165 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities, conviction and fair prices are MMA Analytics projections, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Drew Dober is 38, has fought 27 times in the UFC, and has turned his late career into a run of knockouts with a habit of being knocked out himself: since 2023 he has stopped Ricky Glenn, Kyle Prepolec and Michael Johnson and been stopped by Matt Frevola, Jean Silva and Manuel Torres. He has not won a decision since 2018. Chris Duncan, the Scottish lightweight who trains at American Top Team, is 6-2 in the UFC and won four straight — two guillotines, a decision and an anaconda choke — before headlining against Renato Moicano in April and being submitted in round two. The form lines cross three times: both men were finished by Torres inside two minutes of round one, both beat Terrance McKinney in round one, and both have lost to Moicano. The styles differ where it matters. Dober is a southpaw puncher who rarely wrestles; Duncan lands almost three takedowns per 15 minutes and finishes from the front headlock. The lean is Dober by a narrow margin, because his power has been the more reliable finisher lately.

Drew Dober

Attribute

Chris Duncan

Age

Oct 19, 1988 vs May 10, 199333

5'8"

Height

+2" Duncan5'10"

70"

Reach

+1.5" Duncan71.5"

35"

Leg Reach

+6" Duncan41"

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

15-11 (1 NC)

UFC Record

6-2

UFC Bouts

#34 LW

Card Rank

#36 LW

Southpaw power puncher

Fighting Style

Pressure, takedowns, front-headlock chokes

Duncan is the bigger man — two inches taller, an inch and a half longer in reach, six inches longer in the legs — and five years younger. Dober is the southpaw, and his power is the biggest physical weapon in the fight: ten UFC knockdowns against Duncan's two.

Venue Factor
The 30-foot Octagon gives Dober room to set his feet and Duncan room to change levels. Duncan's three UFC submission wins all came from front-headlock positions — two guillotines and an anaconda — which open up when an opponent drives forward with his head low.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Drew Dober

Pro Record

29-15-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

15-11 (1 NC) across 27 UFC bouts since late 2013

Streak

Two straight knockout wins — Prepolec (Oct 2025) and Michael Johnson (Mar 2026)

Finish Rate

76% (22 of 29 wins) — 17 KO/TKO, 5 submissions

Avg Fight Time

8:13 (UFC)

Chin · Finishable — 3 UFC knockdowns absorbed; stopped by Frevola (2023), Jean Silva (2024) and Torres (2025)SOS · Veteran lightweights, several rankedSouthpaw Power Puncher

Dober has been in the UFC since 2013 and is one of the division's longest-serving veterans. His identity changed around 2019: after a mixed early run he became one of the most dangerous punchers at lightweight, stopping Polo Reyes, Nasrat Haqparast, Alexander Hernandez, Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves (with a body shot) and Bobby Green between 2019 and 2022. The same style has left him exposed. Since 2023 he is 3-4, and every one of those fights except the Moicano decision ended inside the distance. He lands 4.48 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 4.33, has ten UFC knockdowns against three absorbed, and completes 17% of his takedown attempts — he fights on the feet. His last two wins were late finishes: Prepolec in the third round and Johnson, knocked down and stopped, in the second.

Chris Duncan

Pro Record

15-3-0

UFC Record

6-2 across 8 UFC bouts since March 2023

Streak

Lost his last — submitted by Renato Moicano (Apr 4, 2026) after four straight wins

Finish Rate

73% (11 of 15 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions

Avg Fight Time

8:45 (UFC)

Chin · Never knocked down in the UFC; submitted by Torres (2024) and Moicano (2026)SOS · Unranked to fringe-ranked, one main eventFront-Headlock Finisher

Duncan came through the Contender Series in 2022 after a regional career of stoppages in Scotland and Bellator, and he has become a different fighter in the UFC: none of his six Octagon wins is a knockout. His first UFC wins, over Omar Morales and Yanal Ashmouz, were decisions built on pressure and takedowns — five of them against Morales. After Manuel Torres choked him in 106 seconds in 2024 he won four straight: a guillotine of Bolaji Oki, a guillotine of Jordan Vucenic after 5:37 of control, a unanimous decision over Mateusz Rębecki despite trailing 114–92 on significant strikes, and an anaconda choke of Terrance McKinney after dropping him. That run earned a main event against Renato Moicano in April, where he was submitted in round two. Across eight UFC fights he lands 4.59 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 4.22, completes 41% of his takedowns and has never been knocked down.

Drew Dober

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Chris Duncan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Drew Dobersignature weapons

PunchesLatest: Michael Johnson, R2 1:53 (Mar 2026) — includes a body-shot KO of Rafael Alves

×14

Knees and punchesKyle Prepolec, R3 1:16 (Oct 2025), and Terrance McKinney, R1 3:17 (2022)

×2

Rear-naked chokeLast used against Jamie Varner in 2014

×4

Chris Duncansignature weapons

Guillotine chokeJordan Vucenic (Mar 2025), Bolaji Oki (Sep 2024) and his 2018 pro debut

×3

Anaconda chokeTerrance McKinney, R1 2:30 (Dec 2025), after a knockdown

×1

PunchesAll before the UFC — latest Charlie Campbell on the Contender Series (2022)

×7

Drew Dober

Michael Johnson

KO/TKO — Punch

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (1:53)

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 — Mar 7, 2026

Kyle Prepolec

KO/TKO — Knees and punches

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (1:16)

UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025

Manuel Torres

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:45)

UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg — Mar 29, 2025

Jean Silva

KO/TKO — Doctor stoppage

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (1:28)

UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez — Jul 13, 2024

Renato Moicano

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov — Feb 3, 2024

Pattern

Two wins after three straight losses, and every fight in the stretch except the Moicano decision ended inside the distance. The losses followed one pattern: Jean Silva and Manuel Torres finished him with strikes, Torres out-landing him 23 to 3 in 105 seconds. The wins followed the opposite one: 83 significant strikes landed on Prepolec before the third-round stoppage, and a knockdown of Michael Johnson before the finish in round two.

Chris Duncan

Renato Moicano

Submission — face crank

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (3:14)

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026

Terrance McKinney

Submission — Anaconda choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:30)

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 — Dec 6, 2025

Mateusz Rębecki

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)

UFC on ESPN: Taira vs. Park — Aug 2, 2025

Jordan Vucenic

Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (3:42)

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady — Mar 22, 2025

Bolaji Oki

Technical submission — guillotine choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (3:34)

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis — Sep 28, 2024

Pattern

Four straight wins, then a headline loss. Three of the four wins came by front-headlock choke and the other on the cards; the defeat came against a better grappler, with Moicano landing the only takedown of the fight. Duncan has conceded just eight takedowns in eight UFC fights, but both of his UFC defeats were submissions.

Drew Dober

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Chris Duncan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Dober: 17 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions and 7 decisions in 29 professional wins. Of Dober's 22 finishes, ten in round one, eight in round two and four in round three. Duncan: 7 KO/TKOs, 4 submissions and 4 decisions in 15 professional wins. Of Duncan's 11 finishes, six in round one, four in round two and one in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Drew	Chris
Manuel Torres	L· TKO R1 1:45 (Mar 2025) — out-landed 23–3	L· Rear-naked choke R1 1:46 (Feb 2024)
Both finished inside the first two minutes.
Terrance McKinney	W· TKO R1 3:17 (Mar 2022) — knees and punches after trading knockdowns	W· Anaconda choke R1 2:30 (Dec 2025) — after scoring a knockdown
Both survived McKinney's fast start and finished him in round one.
Renato Moicano	L· Unanimous decision (Feb 2024)	L· Rear-naked choke R2 3:14 (Apr 2026, main event)
Moicano out-grappled both; Dober lasted fifteen minutes, Duncan did not.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Drew

Chris

Dober lands 4.48 a minute with ten UFC knockdowns; Duncan lands 4.59 and has never been dropped in the UFC

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Drew

Chris

Dober completes 17% of his takedowns; Duncan 41%, with three UFC submission wins

Form

Metric	Drew	Chris
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.48	4.59
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.33	4.22
KD	10	2
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.61	2.79
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.07	0.64
UFC Bouts	27	8

Archetype Base Rate

Southpaw Power Puncher 54%46% Front-Headlock Finisher

Matchup read: two early finishers with three shared opponents · The lean follows Dober's recent knockout form; Duncan's grappling keeps it close to even.

Drew DoberChris Duncan

Lightweight

· 57 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Drew	Drew comparison	Div avg	Chris comparison	Chris
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.48	-0.03 vs avg	4.51	+0.08 vs avg	4.59
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	41%	-6.80 pp vs avg	47.8%	-1.80 pp vs avg	46%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	53%	+0.60 pp vs avg	52.4%	-0.40 pp vs avg	52%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.33	+0.18 vs avg	4.15	+0.07 vs avg	4.22
KD/15	0.68	+0.17 vs avg	0.51	-0.08 vs avg	0.43
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.61	-1.06 vs avg	1.67	+1.12 vs avg	2.79
TD Acc	17% (9 of 53)	—	—	—	41% (13 of 32)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	58% (28 of 67 conceded)	—	—	—	56% (8 of 18 conceded)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.07	-0.41 vs avg	0.48	+0.16 vs avg	0.64
Control / 15 min	1:59	—	—	—	3:16
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	8:13	—	—	—	8:45

Statistical Verdict
The striking columns are almost a mirror: both men land about four and a half significant strikes a minute and absorb about the same, right around the lightweight averages. The separation is power and wrestling. Dober's knockdown rate is above the division norm and Duncan's below it, while Duncan takes opponents down well above the division rate and threatens submissions more than average; Dober barely attempts either. Takedown defence is a near tie, so Duncan's wrestling will get its chances.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Drew Dober

Dober's volume peaks in the middle: 16.6 landed in an average first round, 20.6 in the second and 17.7 in the third. His knockdown rate is highest early, 0.22 per first round, and his accuracy is best in round two at 44.5%.
Round one is also where he is most at risk. Opponents land 16.3 on him in an average first round, and three of his UFC stoppage losses came there — Efraín Escudero, Matt Frevola and Manuel Torres.
Takedowns against him cluster early — 25 of the 28 he has conceded in the UFC came in rounds one and two — and his own control time grows late, to 55 seconds in an average third round.

Chris Duncan

Duncan's pace holds and then jumps: 17.1 landed in round one, 16.2 in round two and 34.3 in round three, where his three decision wins produced his busiest work.
His grappling is spread through the fight — four takedowns in first rounds, four in second rounds and five in third rounds across eight bouts — with control rising from 46 seconds to 95 by round three.
Round one is where his UFC finishes live: Oki and McKinney were both submitted there, as was Duncan himself against Torres, and 20.4% of his first-round strikes land on the ground.

Critical Insight
Both men are at their most dangerous, and most vulnerable, in round one. Dober's power peaks early, Duncan's first rounds mix strikes with takedowns and front-headlock scrambles, and both lost to Torres inside 106 seconds. If this reaches round three, Duncan has shown the bigger late gear.

Strike targeting

Drew

63%

23%

14%

Head

63%

Body

23%

Legs

14%

Chris

60%

23%

17%

Head

60%

Body

23%

Legs

17%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DrewChris

80%Distance82%

11%Clinch7%

9%Ground11%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDrew owns it

Dober's southpaw power — ten UFC knockdowns

Pocket / ExchangesDrew owns it

Both land about 4.5 a minute; Dober hits harder, Duncan has never been dropped

Clinch / Front HeadlockChris owns it

Where Duncan's guillotines and anaconda came from

GroundChris owns it

2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes; Dober has four UFC submission losses

The Deep Read

Drew Dober and Chris Duncan have fought three of the same men, and those results explain most of this matchup. Manuel Torres finished both of them inside 106 seconds of round one — Dober with punches, Duncan with a rear-naked choke. Terrance McKinney lost to both of them in round one. Renato Moicano beat both, Dober on the cards in 2024 and Duncan by submission in the main event in April.

The difference is how they finish. Dober is a southpaw puncher whose UFC wins since 2018 are all knockouts — eleven UFC knockout wins, ten UFC knockdowns — and who wins or loses violently: seven of his last eight fights ended inside the distance. Duncan has not knocked anyone out in the UFC. He wins with pressure, takedowns and the front headlock: guillotines for Oki and Vucenic, an anaconda for McKinney.

That makes the first scramble the pivot. If Dober lands first and keeps his head up, his power is the most likely ending. If Duncan gets the level change working, Dober's four UFC submission losses become relevant fast. The lean is Dober, 54 to 46, at a conviction of 4 out of 10 — close to a coin flip, with very few decisions in it.

Path to Victory

Drew Dober

Make it a fistfight at range. Every UFC win Dober has had since 2018 is a knockout, and his ten UFC knockdowns say the southpaw power travels. Keep the head up on entries so Duncan's front-headlock chokes never find a neck, stay off the fence, and let the heavier punches decide exchanges before the wrestling does.

Why they win

Knockout power

Ten UFC knockdowns and eleven UFC knockout wins, the latest in March.

Recent form

Two straight stoppage wins, in rounds three and two.

Southpaw angle

An orthodox Duncan faces the left side; 63% of Dober's UFC strikes go to the head.

Experience

27 UFC fights against 8, including Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano.

Round-two peak

His output and accuracy peak in round two — 20.6 landed at 44.5%.

The gameplan

1
Hands first
Lead with the southpaw power and exit at an angle; do not linger in the pocket after combinations.
2
Keep the head up
Level changes and a lowered head are what give Duncan the front headlock.
3
Sprawl and punish
If Duncan shoots, sprawl and strike rather than scrambling for position.
4
Mix body and head
22.6% of his strikes go to the body; changing levels pulls Duncan's guard down.
5
Survive the first scramble
Both men are most dangerous early; the power is still there in rounds two and three.

Path to Victory

Chris Duncan

Mix the level change into the striking and make Dober carry weight. Duncan's UFC finishes are chokes from the front headlock, and Dober has been submitted four times in the UFC. Takedown attempts force Dober to defend, defending exposes the neck, and the longer the fight goes the more Duncan's late-round output and control come into play.

Why they win

Wrestling rate

2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes at 41%, against a fighter who lands 0.61.

Front-headlock finishing

Three UFC submission wins — two guillotines and an anaconda choke.

Durability

Never knocked down in eight UFC fights.

Size and age

Five years younger, two inches taller and six inches longer in the legs.

Late gear

34.3 significant strikes landed in his average third round.

The gameplan

1
Feint the shot
Make Dober react to level changes before committing to one.
2
Clinch and drag
Tie up after Dober's combinations and take the fight to the mat.
3
Hunt the neck
When Dober's head comes forward, the guillotine and anaconda are there.
4
Stay off the power side
Circle away from Dober's power hand whenever the fight is standing.
5
Bank the late rounds
His output doubles in round three; a close fight favours his pace.

Danger Zone

How Drew Dober loses

Duncan catches a front headlock on an entry and it becomes the Oki or Vucenic finish.
He is taken down early and spends rounds carrying weight, the way Moicano beat him on the cards.
An early exchange goes wrong again, as it did against Frevola and Torres.

Danger Zone

How Chris Duncan loses

He stands and trades with a southpaw who has ten UFC knockdowns.
His takedowns fail against 58% defence and the fight stays a kickboxing match.
Dober survives the early scrambles and it turns into a slugfest like Rębecki, where Duncan was out-landed 114–92.

Torres, McKinney, Moicano

Three Shared Opponents

Both men were finished by Manuel Torres in round one, both beat Terrance McKinney in round one, and both lost to Renato Moicano.

common opponents

Dober's finish-or-be-finished run

No Decision Wins Since 2018

Dober's last decision win was over Jon Tuck in August 2018. Seven of his last eight fights ended inside the distance.

7 of 8

recent fights finished

Duncan in the UFC

Chokes, Not Knockouts

Duncan's seven career knockouts all came before the UFC. His three Octagon finishes are two guillotines and an anaconda choke.

UFC knockout wins for Duncan

Dober on the mat

Submitted Four Times

Dober has lost by guillotine, rear-naked choke, triangle armbar and arm-triangle in the UFC — four of his eleven UFC losses.

UFC submission losses

Duncan's durability

Never Dropped

Duncan has not been knocked down in eight UFC fights; Dober has scored ten knockdowns in 27.

UFC knockdowns absorbed by Duncan

The Five-Round Clock

Drew Dober danger windowChris Duncan danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The danger round

Dober's knockdown rate peaks here and Duncan's UFC finishes happened here; both lost to Torres inside the first two minutes.

Critical Insight
Only 16 of our 100 simulated fights reach the scorecards. Round one is a shootout, round two leans to Dober's power, and round three leans to Duncan's pace if it gets there.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Three shared opponents produced near-identical results, which is why this is close to even.

Dober's route is his power on the feet; Duncan's is the front headlock that finished Oki, Vucenic and McKinney.

Expect a finish: decisions are rare for both, and our lean is Dober by knockout.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Dober KO/TKO — 36%Dober Decision — 8%Dober Submission — 10%Duncan KO/TKO — 16%Duncan Decision — 8%Duncan Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Drew Dober gold · Chris Duncan orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Power gap

Ten UFC knockdowns for Dober, two for Duncan; Duncan has never been dropped in the UFC.

Front-headlock threat

Duncan's three UFC finishes are chokes; Dober has four UFC submission losses.

Shared opponents

Both lost to Torres and Moicano and both beat McKinney — the form lines point to an even fight.

Recent form

Dober has two straight knockout wins; Duncan was submitted in his last fight.

Finishes on both sides

Seven of Dober's last eight fights ended inside the distance; five of Duncan's eight UFC fights did.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Southpaw Finish

Dober lands first in the exchanges and finishes on the feet, most likely in the first two rounds.

Scripted outcomes for Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Drew Dober win probability

36%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Every UFC win Dober has had since 2018 is a knockout — the base case.
Small: he has not won a decision since 2018.
Five career submission wins, all in 2014 or earlier; a scramble finish is possible, not likely.

Chris Duncan win probability

16%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Seven career knockouts, none in the UFC; live against a fighter stopped three times since 2023.
Small: three UFC decision wins, but this matchup rarely goes long.
The main upset path: front-headlock chokes against a man with four UFC submission losses.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Drew

Chris

29-28 Dober

Power rounds one and two, Duncan's pace in three

Most likely card inside Dober's 8% decision share

29-28 Duncan

Takedowns and a big third round

Most likely card inside Duncan's 8% decision share

30-27 Dober

Takedowns denied throughout

The one-sided version

Model and price

Drew Dober

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: +140 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Estimated EV: +29.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: +13.9 pp

Chris Duncan

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: -165 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Estimated EV: -26.1%
Edge vs no-vig market: -13.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Drew Dober

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Chris Duncan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Dober by KO/TKO at 36% (fair +178). Duncan by submission at 22% (fair +355) is the live other side. Fight goes the distance 16% (fair +525); ends inside the distance 84% (fair −525).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Dober's power and recent form earn a narrow lean; three shared opponents and Duncan's chokes keep it near even. Conviction 4 out of 10. Lean: Drew Dober.

What backs the lean

Two straight knockout wins and ten UFC knockdowns
Duncan was submitted in his most recent fight
The striking numbers are even, and Dober's punches carry more power
27 UFC fights against 8

What limits it

Duncan lands 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes; Dober lands 0.61
Dober has four UFC submission losses, and Duncan's UFC finishes are all chokes
Duncan is five years younger and has never been knocked down in the UFC
Dober has been stopped three times since 2023

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 readings, Drew Dober keeps it on the feet and wins the way he has won every UFC fight since 2018: by knockout (36%). A submission from a scramble is 10% and a decision 8%.

In the other 46, Chris Duncan gets the fight into the clinch and onto the mat and finds the neck (22%), or out-lasts Dober for a stoppage (16%). A decision is 8%.

Dober 54 / Duncan 46, conviction 4 out of 10. The puncher on a two-fight knockout streak is the lean; the front headlock is close enough that this is not a pick to stretch.

Back to UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Card