The late change reshapes the fight. Johnson spent camp preparing for Baisangur Susurkaev, an unbeaten 6'2" pressure fighter with two UFC rear-naked chokes. Almeida has a similar frame and the opposite skill set: he has one UFC takedown, no MMA submissions, and a kickboxing career that includes a win over Alex Pereira. For Johnson that changes the main danger from being held down to being hit clean, by a man who lands 60% of his significant strikes and sends most of them to the body and legs. The replacement also changes what Johnson can take. Almeida is 38, has lost two straight, was knocked out four months ago and accepted this fight on 46 days' notice — and his UFC record already shows the two ways he loses.
The first is the knockdown. Kopylov, Alhassan and Pinas all dropped Almeida in Round 1, in three separate fights, and Pinas knocked him out while trailing on strikes. Johnson has scored seven first-round knockouts in nine professional fights, and he closes distance in bursts faster than any of those three. The second is the takedown. Almeida's opponents have landed 17 of 33 attempts and kept him underneath for 30:53 of his 61:13 in the Octagon; Oleksiejczuk controlled him for 11:15 in their December fight. Johnson rarely needs to wrestle — his own description of his style is to put his hands up and locate the jaw — but he landed all three takedowns he attempted against Dumas and won the Brundage fight on a round of top control. Either door is open, and the model gives Johnson 44 finishes in 100 simulations, half of them in the first round.
The case for Almeida is real, and it starts on the feet. He is the more complete striker by any technical measure: 60% accuracy against 43%, a kicking game Johnson has never seen in the UFC, clinch efficiency of 30 of 32, and counter power he showed when he knocked out Alhassan moments after being knocked down. Johnson is short, explosive and wide on his entries; calf kicks can slow that down, and a well-timed left hook or head kick can end it — the only time Johnson has lost in sanctioned MMA was an amateur head-kick knockout in 2023. Johnson's sample is also thin: three UFC fights, 23 minutes, and a split decision that one judge scored for Brundage. The model gives Almeida 35 wins in 100, most of them on the scorecards.
