Two belts, one night in Abu Dhabi. Etihad Arena hosts a double-title card: Alexander Volkanovski (28-4) defends the featherweight crown against undefeated Movsar Evloev (20-0), and Petr Yan meets Merab Dvalishvili in a trilogy decider at bantamweight. Model leans: Volkanovski 54% and Yan 60%. Live on Paramount+ at 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM local.
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A double-title card with a real stylistic argument at the top: Alexander Volkanovski (28-4) and the division's best fifth round against Movsar Evloev (20-0) and 4.78 takedowns per 15. Plus the Yan vs. Dvalishvili III trilogy decider, series split 1-1. Model leans: Volkanovski 54%, Yan 60%.
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Main event
Featherweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 11/11 · Analyses available: 11/11
Model estimate
Market implies 49% · 51%
Updated · Sep 30
20-0-0
Tactical key
Evloev has won all ten of his UFC fights on the cards, banking rounds with body-lock control rather than damage. Against Lerone Murphy his takedowns landed but rarely stuck, and he spent the opening rounds losing the exchanges. If Volkanovski wins the get-ups and keeps the fight standing, his volume tends to grow as the rounds pile up.
What limits this estimate
Alexander Volkanovski: Survive the wrestling opener at better than 2-0 down, then let the last ten minutes do the work. His fourth and fifth rounds are his most productive — 28.5 and 36.0 significant strikes at 58.2% and 60.6% — and Evloev has a single fight's tape there.
Movsar Evloev: Wrestle from the opening bell and bank three rounds before the champion's engine peaks. 1.60 takedowns and 111 seconds of control in an average first round, repeated, is a 3-0 card — and 3-0 is the only lead that survives rounds four and five.
Reference quote: -103 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +5.1 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: -113 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -5.1 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Model estimate
Market implies 61% · 39%
Updated · Sep 30
Tactical key
Both meetings hinged on whether Dvalishvili's takedowns landed. In the first they did and he swept the cards; in the rematch Yan stayed off the fence, killed the grips before the level change and let his cleaner striking take the belt. Dvalishvili's clearest adjustment is body locks against the cage instead of shots from distance, and Yan must start faster after being out-landed in the first round both times.
What limits this estimate
Petr Yan: Stay off the fence for twenty-five minutes. If the entries fail the way they failed for 27 of 29 attempts in December, a 55% connect rate against 42% simply writes the cards.
Merab Dvalishvili: Move his takedown conversion from 6.9% back toward the 35.2% he has averaged across 338 career attempts — and own the first two rounds against a champion who gives them away half the time.
Reference quote: -175 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -1.3 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +149 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +1.3 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Temirov's danger lives almost entirely in the opening round, where he has produced nearly every finish of his career, and his only full-distance UFC fight ended with the rangy Charles Johnson out-landing him late. Kavanagh's length, leg kicks and mid-fight wrestling are built for the minutes after that, provided he circles off the fence and never retreats in a straight line early.
What limits this estimate
Lone'er Kavanagh: Reach the Round 2 horn upright. Ten of the fifteen minutes belong to the man with 78 Octagon minutes, a 67-inch reach and an opponent who has not finished anybody after minute five since 2017.
Ramazan Temirov: Five minutes. Twelve of thirteen career finishes came in Round 1, and Charles Johnson has already cracked this chin once.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Volkov wants the fight at the end of his jab and low kick, circling out whenever his back touches the cage. Kuniev beat Jailton Almeida by owning the clinch and needs the same body-lock fence fight. If he closes early in each round, his knees to the body grow more dangerous as the fight ages; if he cannot, he is fighting at a range where he rarely lands clean.
What limits this estimate
Alexander Volkov: Fifteen minutes at eighty inches. If the fight is fought where Volkov converts 55% and Kuniev converts 39.5%, the cards write themselves — and the round he cannot afford to lose is the first.
Rizvan Kuniev: Eight square feet of fence. If he closes inside ninety seconds of every round and banks sixty-plus seconds of body-lock control with knees attached, he wins the judges' impression fight the same way he won it against Almeida.
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Edge vs no-vig market: —
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Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Pico's blueprint is the Patricio Pitbull win: wrestling entries and steady volume that grew into a unanimous decision. The danger is the Lerone Murphy night, when a spinning back elbow ended his debut inside the first round. Keita's counters and knockdown power live in that same opening window, so every entry has to arrive behind strikes, with his head up and his hands high.
What limits this estimate
Aaron Pico: Convert phase repeatedly for fifteen minutes — takedowns and safe top minutes, as against Pitbull, without walking straight into counters on the way in.
Losene Keita: Deny phase or make the first exchange the last — long counters from the outside before wrestling entries accumulate.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Reyes does his damage early, so the jab, teep and calf kick have to bank the fight before his output thins out in the third. Murzakanov walked the longer Rakić onto the fence rather than chasing him, and he gets sharper as fights wear on. Reyes has never won a UFC fight in which he was dropped, so one clean counter can decide it.
What limits this estimate
Dominick Reyes: The first five minutes, or fifteen minutes at 77 inches. His knockdown equity is elite in the opening round and effectively gone after it, and behind that sits a proven four-win decision template he used last time out.
Azamat Murzakanov: One clean sequence, at any point. A 1.58 knockdown average walking toward a 50% strike defence, on a man who has never once got back up to win.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Magomedov is sharp and hard to hit in the opening round, then fades, and Sean Strickland and Joe Pyfer both stopped him in the second. Rowston's fights run the other way: he gets busier and heavier on top as they go on. His danger is the early scramble, where Magomedov's guillotine punishes careless level changes; if Rowston gets through the first round clean, the fight tilts his way.
What limits this estimate
Abus Magomedov: The fight is decided before minute six. Sixteen career first-round finishes, a 19-second knockout, the best defensive round in the matchup and an Early-Hunter guillotine used four months ago — everything he owns statistically lives in the first five minutes.
Cam Rowston: The fight is still being contested after the first horn. His output climbs by two-thirds into Round 2, his absorption falls, his control triples, and his ground share climbs +51 points by Round 3 into a man whose most common losing method is submission.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Yakhyaev has never needed a second round in the Octagon: he hurts opponents early and chokes them the moment they turn. Krylov, knocked out by Reyes and Guskov and stopped by Whittaker in his recent run, must survive the opening exchanges, drag the fight to the fence and punish any cold takedown with a guillotine or triangle. The longer it lasts, the more the veteran's clinch matters.
What limits this estimate
Nikita Krylov: The clinch inside ninety seconds, or a neck offered on a cold shot. Ten of his twelve UFC submission attempts fired in Round 1, and if the fight is somehow still live at the start of the third, the projection flips to him.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev: One clean shot on a jaw that has failed three times since April 2025 — or the Cerqueira sequence through a 53% takedown defence: hurt him, take him down, take the back, choke.
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Both men wrestle, but only Dawson turns top position into real danger: three of his finishes came in a fight's final minute. Aliev has won every UFC fight on the cards, mostly through takedowns and control, and if he stuffs Dawson's body locks he can grind out another. If the fight is level entering the third, Dawson's back-take becomes the deciding threat.
What limits this estimate
Grant Dawson: He finds the mat and makes it cost something. Fourteen career submissions, control that holds through the third round, and three finishes inside the last 49 seconds of Round 3 — get past minute five and the shape of the fight turns over.
Nurullo Aliev: Fifteen minutes of arithmetic. The wall holds at 80%, he banks the fence rounds the way he did against Alves and Davis, and a man who has never needed a finish never needs one here either.
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Edge vs no-vig market: —
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Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Vagaev won his UFC debut by pinning Saygid Izagakhmaev to the fence early, then was hurt, mounted and nearly submitted in the third round. Malkoun is the heavier grappler and the stronger closer: his control grows every round, and he out-struck Torrez Finney and Gerald Meerschaert. If Vagaev cannot win the opening clinch exchanges at a new weight, the late rounds belong to Malkoun.
What limits this estimate
Jacob Malkoun: Survive Vagaev's opening clinch without being pinned and ridden, box him at range where his debut output was lowest, and take over Rounds 2 and 3 with the chain wrestling and top control that peak late in his fights.
Abubakar Vagaev: Win the first clinch, pin Malkoun to the fence and trip him as he did Izagakhmaev, bank Round 1 — Malkoun's most vulnerable round — and steal one of the next two with knees and body shots in the clinch.
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Edge vs no-vig market: —
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Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Topuria and Morales both reached Thicknesse's back in the third round, and Topuria's overhand right rocked him on debut. Chopurov is a switch-stance counter-puncher who finishes from the back, so every exchange and every scramble is a gamble for the Australian. His path is kicks from range and a busy guard all the way to the judges, as against Morales.
What limits this estimate
Colby Thicknesse: Kick from range without standing in front of the counter, never shoot from distance, turn every takedown into a guard fight, and bank the first two rounds before his third-round fade.
Asaf Chopurov: Time the counter as Thicknesse kicks, walk him to the fence and take the back, and push the pace into a third round that Thicknesse has lost twice in three UFC fights.
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Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC 333 — the double-title narrative, the card spotlights, the questions everyone asks, and how the model reads a striker-versus-grappler title fight.
The Story
UFC 333 is a double-title card in Abu Dhabi with a genuine stylistic argument at the top. Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski (28-4, age 38) defends the featherweight belt against Movsar Evloev (20-0, UFC 10-0) — championship-round craft, 36.0 significant strikes at 62.7% accuracy in Round 5, against the most avoided unbeaten record in the division: 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, roughly three times the featherweight baseline, and zero UFC finishes in ten Octagon wins. The co-main closes a trilogy: Petr Yan (20-5) defends the bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili (21-5), the series split 1-1 after Yan stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns in their last meeting. And Etihad Arena is the same building where Islam Makhachev knocked Volkanovski out at UFC 294 on eleven days' notice — the emotional spine of the return.
MMA Analytics leans Volkanovski a narrow 54% — capped by age 38 and an Average chin tier with three career knockout losses — and Yan ~60% on the strength of a 60.4%-to-35.0% accuracy gap. The undercard is unusually deep: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev at heavyweight, Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita, Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov, and Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev. Every fight above includes BetOnline odds, model probabilities, and a full breakdown.
Main Event — Featherweight Title
01Volkanovski vs. Evloev
The division's best fifth round (36.0 strikes at 62.7% accuracy) meets 4.78 takedowns per 15 — roughly triple the baseline, zero UFC finishes. ~54% Volkanovski, capped by age 38 and an Average chin.
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Bantamweight Title
02Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3
Series 1-1. Yan (20-5) stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns and owned a 60.4%-to-35.0% accuracy gap in their last meeting — the model leans ~60% Yan over Dvalishvili (21-5).
Main Card — Heavyweight
03Volkov vs. Kuniev
Volkov (40-11) owns 19 UFC bouts of range and accuracy against a three-fight newcomer (14-3-1) — ~58% Volkov, with the three-round limit removing his only measured structural flaw.
Full breakdown
Card Spotlight
04Pico vs. Keita & Reyes vs. Murzakanov
Allen withdrew (injury); Aaron Pico (14-5) now faces Losene Keita (17-2) and is the ~57% side on takedown volume. Murzakanov (16-1) is the ~56% side over Reyes (16-5): the harder puncher with the better defensive line.
Full breakdown
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev is a numbered UFC event on Saturday, October 24, 2026 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The main event is a UFC Featherweight Championship bout between two-time champion Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski (28-4, age 38) and undefeated challenger Movsar Evloev (20-0, UFC 10-0). Evloev scores 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes — roughly three times the featherweight baseline — but has never finished a UFC opponent; all ten of his Octagon wins came by decision. Volkanovski owns the division's best championship-round profile: 36.0 significant strikes at 62.7% accuracy in Round 5. The co-main is a second title fight, Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili III for the bantamweight belt with the series split 1-1. MMA Analytics leans Volkanovski 54% and Yan ~60%. The card streams on Paramount+ at 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM local.
UFC 333 streams live from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on Saturday, October 24, 2026, with the main card beginning at 2:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Local Abu Dhabi time is 10:00 PM Gulf Standard Time. That is 11:00 AM PT, 7:00 PM BST in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and 8:00 PM CEST in Central Europe. Prelims begin earlier the same day, also on Paramount+. All listed times remain subject to broadcast changes.
Two titles are on the line. Alexander Volkanovski (28-4) defends the featherweight belt against Movsar Evloev (20-0), and Petr Yan (20-5) defends the bantamweight belt against Merab Dvalishvili (21-5) in their trilogy bout. Also on the card: Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov (flyweight), Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (heavyweight), Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (featherweight), Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov and Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (light heavyweight), Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (middleweight), and Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (lightweight), and Jacob Malkoun vs. Abubakar Vagaev (middleweight), and Colby Thicknesse (9-1) vs. Asaf Chopurov (11-0) at bantamweight.
MMA Analytics currently favors Alexander Volkanovski at approximately 54% win probability versus Movsar Evloev at 46% for the UFC 333 featherweight title fight at Etihad Arena. The champion's case is the best fifth round in featherweight history by the numbers: 36.0 significant strikes at 62.7% accuracy in Round 5, his best round on both counts. The challenger's case is a wrestling volume the division has never solved: 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, roughly three times the featherweight baseline — though Evloev has zero UFC finishes, with all ten Octagon wins by decision. Conviction is capped by Volkanovski's age (38) and an Average chin tier carrying three career knockout losses, including a short-notice KO by Islam Makhachev in this same building at UFC 294. On the same card, Petr Yan is projected near 60% over Merab Dvalishvili in their trilogy, built on 27 of 29 takedowns stuffed in their last meeting. Full fight pages compare these model probabilities to BetOnline odds.
Yes — both title fights are official. Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev headlines for the UFC Featherweight Championship, and Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili III is official for the UFC Bantamweight Championship as the co-main event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The full card streams on Paramount+; the bout order above reflects the official billing.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs Evloev🟢 | Alexander VolkanovskiModel favorite | 54% | -103 (BetOnline)50.7% implied | Movsar Evloev | 46% | -113 (BetOnline)53.1% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAlexander Volkanovski54%50.7%+3.3 ppMovsar Evloev46%53.1%-7.1 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Alexander Volkanovski. The quoted price also offers a positive gap against our estimate. Recheck prices before betting |
| Yan vs Dvalishvili🟢 | Petr YanModel favorite | 60% | -175 (BetOnline)63.6% implied | Merab Dvalishvili | 40% | +149 (BetOnline)40.2% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapPetr Yan60%63.6%-3.6 ppMerab Dvalishvili40%40.2%-0.2 pp Our read: We favor Petr Yan. Neither quote offers a meaningful positive gap against our estimate. Recheck prices before betting |
| Kavanagh vs Temirov🟡 | Lone'er KavanaghModel favorite | 55% | —— | Ramazan Temirov | 45% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapLone'er Kavanagh55%——Ramazan Temirov45%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Lone'er Kavanagh. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Volkov vs Kuniev🟡 | Alexander VolkovModel favorite | 58% | —— | Rizvan Kuniev | 42% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAlexander Volkov58%——Rizvan Kuniev42%—— Our read: We favor Alexander Volkov. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Reyes vs Murzakanov🟢 | Dominick Reyes | 44% | —— | Azamat MurzakanovModel favorite | 56% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapDominick Reyes44%——Azamat Murzakanov56%—— Our read: We favor Azamat Murzakanov. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Magomedov vs Rowston🟡 | Abus Magomedov | 37% | —— | Cam RowstonModel favorite | 63% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapAbus Magomedov37%——Cam Rowston63%—— Our read: We favor Cam Rowston. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Krylov vs Yakhyaev🟡 | Nikita Krylov | 38% | —— | Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevModel favorite | 62% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapNikita Krylov38%——Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev62%—— Our read: We favor Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Dawson vs Aliev🟡 | Grant DawsonModel favorite | 56% | —— | Nurullo Aliev | 44% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapGrant Dawson56%——Nurullo Aliev44%—— Our read: We favor Grant Dawson. A market price is needed to assess value. |
