Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Dominick Reyes — Light Heavyweight fighter

Dominick Reyes

“The Devastator”
16W5L
Rangy Counter-Striker
VS
Azamat Murzakanov — Light Heavyweight fighter

Azamat Murzakanov

“The Professional”
16W1L
Power Puncher

A 50% guard against the division's second-best knockdown rate

Light HeavyweightEtihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesOctober 24, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Reyes does his damage early, so the jab, teep and calf kick have to bank the fight before his output thins out in the third. Murzakanov walked the longer Rakić onto the fence rather than chasing him, and he gets sharper as fights wear on. Reyes has never won a UFC fight in which he was dropped, so one clean counter can decide it.

Paths that change the fight

  • Dominick ReyesThe first five minutes, or fifteen minutes at 77 inches. His knockdown equity is elite in the opening round and effectively gone after it, and behind that sits a proven four-win decision template he used last time out.
  • Azamat MurzakanovOne clean sequence, at any point. A 1.58 knockdown average walking toward a 50% strike defence, on a man who has never once got back up to win.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10
  • +6" height, +5.5" reach and +2.5" leg reach — the widest frame gap on the card, and the tool set to fight an entire night without being touched.
  • Every man who has ever finished Reyes stood 74"+ with a 77"+ reach. Murzakanov is four to seven inches shorter than all four of them.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Dominick Reyes

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
44%
Fair odds
+127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.27

Azamat Murzakanov

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
56%
Fair odds
-127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Twenty-one of these two men's thirty-two career wins ended in Round 1, and the fight reduces to one clock. Dominick Reyes is 6'4" with a 77-inch reach, and his knockdown power lives almost entirely in the opening five minutes — six of his seven UFC knockdowns landed there, and he has never scored one in a second round. Azamat Murzakanov is six inches shorter and gets more dangerous with every minute: his accuracy and his knockdown rate both climb round on round. Against that sits the blackest mark on the board. Reyes is hit as often as he makes opponents miss, he has been knocked out four times — three of them by men who have held the light heavyweight title — and he has never won a UFC fight in which he was dropped. Murzakanov's most distinctive number is the knockdown. One man's worst statistic is precisely the other man's best, and a three-round fight hands Reyes one dangerous round and two in which he is the fading man.

Dominick Reyes
Attribute
Azamat Murzakanov
36
Age
37
6'4" (76")
Height
5'10" (70")
77"+5.5" Reyes
Reach
71.5"
43.5"
Leg Reach
41.0"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
#10 light heavyweight
UFC Ranking
#8 light heavyweight
Cobra Kai Victorville (Joe Stevenson)
Team
K Dojo Warrior Tribe
Jun 25, 2017
Octagon Debut
Mar 12, 2022
Rangy southpaw counter-striker, ex-Division I safety
Fighting Style
Compact power-puncher, ex-SOBR officer and 3× world hand-to-hand champion

Six inches of height and five and a half inches of reach is not a nuance at 205 lbs; it is the structural fact of the fight, and Reyes' 43.5-inch leg reach means his teep and his southpaw round kick arrive from a range where Murzakanov's hands do not exist. The counter-fact is equally hard: every one of Murzakanov's six UFC wins came against a longer man — Brendson Ribeiro (81" reach) and Aleksandar Rakić (6'4", 78") by first-round TKO, Tafon Nchukwi (77") by flying knee, Dustin Jacoby (6'3", 76") by unanimous decision, Alonzo Menifield (76") by second-round knockout and Devin Clark (75") in the third. His one loss came against Paulo Costa, the only UFC opponent without a meaningful reach edge — 72 inches to his 71.5. Rakić's dimensions are, to within an inch, Dominick Reyes' dimensions. Both men are also southpaws, which matters more than usual here: the sequence that ended Murzakanov's unbeaten record was stance-dependent — Costa spent two rounds hammering rear round kicks into the open-side body from orthodox and then went high — and in a closed stance that highway does not exist. Reyes must find the same damage down a mirrored lane: lead hook, straight left over the top of a same-side guard, and the outside calf kick, which happens to be the one tool he leans on hardest late.

Venue Factor
Abu Dhabi's Etihad Arena is where Murzakanov knocked out Aleksandar Rakić in October 2025 and where he stopped Alonzo Menifield in August 2024 — two of his six UFC wins were built in this building, both by knockout. Reyes has fought in Abu Dhabi once, on Fight Island in September 2020, when Jan Błachowicz stopped him in the second round for the vacant title. Neutral ground on paper; a familiar hunting floor in practice for one man, and a bad memory for the other. This bout heads the prelims, which open at 12:00 PM ET — 8:00 PM local.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Dominick Reyes trading strikes with Jon Jones

Dominick Reyes

Pro Record
16-5-0
UFC Record
10-5 across fifteen bouts since June 2017
Streak
Won his last — split decision over Johnny Walker (UFC 327, Apr 2026)
Finish Rate
75% (12 of 16 wins) — 10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
07:51 (15 UFC bouts)
Chin · Vulnerable — knocked out four times, winless after being droppedSOS · ChampionshipRangy southpaw counter-striker

The more turbulent ledger of the two. He ran 8-0 to open his career, took Jon Jones to a five-round decision that 14 of 21 media outlets scored his way, then fell apart: a Błachowicz TKO for the vacant belt, Procházka's spinning back elbow, Ryan Spann in 80 seconds. He rebuilt with three straight knockouts — Jacoby, Anthony Smith, Nikita Krylov — before Carlos Ulberg, who went on to win the vacant title, erased him in 4:27 of the first round in September 2025. Then he edged past Johnny Walker on two of three cards in a fight the Miami crowd booed and chanted "this is boring" at. He is a former title challenger who is 4-2 in his last six, and whose most recent win was his least convincing performance in years: 34 significant strikes in fifteen minutes, less than half his career rate. That one night dragged his landed-per-minute figure from 5.39 to 4.99 and his knockdown average from 1.02 to 0.89. His volume is drifting downward, not upward, at 36.

Azamat Murzakanov throwing a left hand to the body in the Octagon

Azamat Murzakanov

Pro Record
16-1-0
UFC Record
6-1 across seven bouts since March 2022 (plus one Contender Series win)
Streak
Lost his last — head-kicked out by Paulo Costa in R3 (UFC 327, Apr 2026)
Finish Rate
81% (13 of 16 wins) — 12 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
09:03 across his seven UFC bouts (08:17 including his Contender Series win)
Chin · Iron for sixteen fights, but cracked once by CostaSOS · StrongLow-volume power puncher

A thinner and stranger ledger. He debuted in 2010 with a ten-second knockout, disappeared into police work, returned in 2015, then lost two full years to a USADA suspension for boldenone metabolites running from September 2017. He won Brave CF 29's openweight tournament in a single night in November 2019 — a decision over Guto Inocente and a knockout of Mohammad Fakhreddine — took the Contender Series in 2021, and ran 6-0 in the UFC across four years, interrupted by a second, six-month suspension for LGD-4033 metabolites from November 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025. He arrived at UFC 327 ranked No. 6 at light heavyweight, unbeaten in sixteen fights, and left it stopped for the first time; he now sits at No. 8. That one night moved every rate he carries: accuracy 57% → 56%, strike defence 61% → 56%, strikes absorbed per minute 2.86 → 3.20, knockdown average 1.91 → 1.58 — proof of how few rounds sit behind his numbers.

Dominick Reyes
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Azamat Murzakanov
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Dominick Reyessignature weapons

First-Round Punching KnockoutsChristensen (0:29), Weidman (1:43), Jacoby (2:00, knee and punches), Krylov (2:24) and Cannonier (2:55) — each one dropped first, and those five fights hold six of his seven UFC knockdowns
×5
Elbows and Punches from TopAnthony Smith, R2 4:46 at UFC 310 — 56 of 65 ground strikes landed in the finishing round, his only finish after Round 1
×1
Head KickMarcus Govan (0:27) and Jordan Powell (0:53) before the UFC — the Powell knockout is the clip that earned him his contract
×2
ChokesA guillotine on Jessie Glass (0:55, 2015) and a rear-naked choke on Jeremy Kimball (3:39, December 2017) — his last submission of any kind
×2

Azamat Murzakanovsignature weapons

Punches on the FeetAleksandar Rakić (R1 3:11) and Alonzo Menifield (R2 3:18) — both longer men, both dropped and stopped
×2
Ground-and-Pound FinishBrendson Ribeiro (R1 3:25, 20 of 26 ground strikes in the round) and Devin Clark (R3 1:18, 24 of 30 on the ground) — 82% of his career ground strikes land
×2
Flying KneeTafon Nchukwi, R3 0:44, on his Octagon debut in March 2022
×1
First-Minute FinishesKhakimov (0:10), Hooben (0:20) and Muniz (0:50) by strikes, plus a 0:35 neck crank on Bulakh — four regional wins inside a minute
×4

Dominick Reyes

W
Johnny Walker
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026
L
Carlos Ulberg
KO — punches

Opponent context: elite

R1 (4:27)
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes — Sep 28, 2025
W
Nikita Krylov
KO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:24)
UFC 314 — Apr 12, 2025
W
Anthony Smith
TKO — elbows and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (4:46)
UFC 310 — Dec 7, 2024
W
Dustin Jacoby
KO — knee and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:00)
UFC on ESPN 57 — Jun 8, 2024
Pattern

A genuine rebuild — 4-1 in five — but the texture is deteriorating. The Jacoby, Smith and Krylov wins were vintage Devastator: three finishes, three knockdowns, nothing past the second round. Then Carlos Ulberg — 6'4" with a 77-inch reach, and the champion by the following April — knocked him out inside one round in a long-range exchange Reyes lost decisively, landing 5 of 11 to Ulberg's 11 of 17 before the finish. The Walker rebound restored the "W" but not the identity: fifteen minutes, two of three cards, an audible crowd revolt, and just 34 significant strikes landed — 10, 9 and 15 by round.

Azamat Murzakanov

L
Paulo Costa
TKO — head kick

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (1:23)
UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026
W
Aleksandar Rakić
TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (3:11)
UFC 321 — Oct 25, 2025 · Abu Dhabi
W
Brendson Ribeiro
TKO — punches on the ground

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:25)
UFC 316 — Jun 7, 2025
W
Alonzo Menifield
KO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (3:18)
UFC on ABC 7 — Aug 3, 2024 · Abu Dhabi
W
Dustin Jacoby
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC on ESPN 44 — Apr 15, 2023
Pattern

Three knockouts and a decision, then the wall. The Rakić knockout is the most transferable piece of tape on this card — a 6'4", 78-inch-reach light heavyweight walked down and stopped in 3:11 by a man giving up six inches, in this exact building. Rakić landed 9 of 14 in that round; Murzakanov landed 3 of 8, and one of those three dropped him. That is the profile: low volume, freakish per-strike consequence. The Costa loss inverts it. Costa — with only a 72-inch reach, the one man who could stand where Murzakanov stands — spent two rounds thudding rear round kicks into the open-side body from orthodox, then went high in the third: one head kick to rock, a second to finish. It was a stance-specific demolition executed by the only opponent in his UFC run without a meaningful reach advantage.

Dominick Reyes

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Azamat Murzakanov

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Twenty-one of these two men's thirty-two career wins ended in Round 1 — that is the headline. The distribution within the fight is where the edge lives. Reyes' knockdown equity is 86% front-loaded: six of his seven UFC knockdowns landed in the opening five minutes and he has never scored one in a second round. Murzakanov's rises monotonically, 0.29 → 0.40 → 0.50 per round, and note the shape of his Octagon run specifically — his early UFC finishes came late (Nchukwi R3, Clark R3, Menifield R2) and his recent ones came early (Ribeiro R1, Rakić R1). He has been getting faster, not slower. Reyes must win this in the first five minutes or win it on the cards; Murzakanov gets more dangerous with every minute Reyes fails to end it.

Common Opponents

OpponentDominickAzamat
Dustin JacobyW· KO/TKO R1 2:00 (Jun 2024) — two knockdownsW· UD 29-28 ×3 (Apr 2023) — the full fifteen minutes
The one true shared opponent, and the comparison is stark: Reyes needed two minutes and put Jacoby down twice, Murzakanov needed a sweep of close cards
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Dominick
0
Azamatfew UFC fights

Reyes lands more (4.99 per minute, 9th of 26) and out-lands what he absorbs by 1.47 to 1, but defends 50% — 16th of 26 and the hole the whole fight lives in. Murzakanov is 4th in accuracy (56%), 7th in strike defence (56%), 7th in absorption (3.20) and 2nd in knockdown rate (1.58). Reyes wins minutes; Murzakanov wins seconds.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Dominick
0
Azamatfew UFC fights

Neither man is a wrestler, and that is itself the finding. Reyes has two takedowns in fifteen UFC fights (0.25 per 15) into 89% defence; Murzakanov shoots at 20% accuracy (3 of 15) into 83% defence. What decides the mat exchanges is who lands the knockdown first — both men's ground offence is entirely follow-up damage.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Dominick
0
Azamatfew UFC fights

Murzakanov leads on both halves — efficiency and defence on the feet, takedown defence and top-position finishing on the mat. Reyes' technical advantages are raw volume and reach, neither of which appears in a composite. The five-point gap is smaller than the final 56/44 split; the extra weight comes from something a composite cannot encode — Reyes is 0-4 in fights in which he has been knocked down, and Murzakanov's defining statistic is the knockdown.

MetricDominickAzamat
Avg Fight Time07:51 (15 UFC bouts)09:03 (7 UFC bouts)few UFC fights
Pace TierModerate — 4.99 SLpM, 9th of 26Low Output — 4.40 SLpM, 11th of 26few UFC fights
R3/R1 Output86% — "Slight Fade"104% — "Steady"few UFC fights
Outlanded in Round 16 of 15 UFC bouts3 of 7 UFC boutsfew UFC fights
Champ Rounds3-round bout (25 minutes with Jones on record)3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Rangy Counter-Striker 44%56% Power Puncher

Model lean — no archetype prior · The 56-44 lean is built from the rate line, the round curves and one conditional rather than an archetype prior — Reyes is 0-4 in fights where he has been knocked down, against the division's second-highest knockdown average.

Dominick ReyesAzamat Murzakanov

Light Heavyweight

· 26 fighters
StatDominickDominick rankDiv avgAzamat rankAzamat
SLpM4.99
9/26
4.50
11/26few UFC fights
4.40
Str Acc54%
10/26
51.7%
4/26few UFC fights
56%
Str Def50%
16/26
51.9%
7/26few UFC fights
56%
SApM3.40
10/26
3.70
7/26few UFC fights
3.20
KD Avg0.89
5/26
0.64
2/26elitefew UFC fights
1.58
Damage Ratio1.47—1.27—1.38
TD/150.25
21/26
1.16
11/26few UFC fights
0.68
TD Def83%
11/26
—
6/26few UFC fights
89%
Sub/150.25
6/26
0.27
8/26few UFC fights
0.23
Avg Fight Time07:51———08:17
Statistical Verdict
Reyes owns size, volume, damage ratio, résumé and the common opponent. Murzakanov owns accuracy, defence, absorption, knockdown rate, takedown defence, the Round-3 curve and the venue. The two rows that decide the fight sit in this table: strike defence 50% (16th of 26) against a knockdown average of 1.58 (2nd of 26). One man's worst statistic is precisely the other man's best. Takedown accuracy is the other row that favours Reyes — 2 of 7 against 3 of 15 — and neither man takes anyone down often enough for it to matter.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Dominick Reyes

  • His accuracy holds around 54% through two rounds and then drops to 47.5% in the third, and his defence gives ground after the opening round: opponents land 46.6% of their significant strikes on him in the first, then 51.3% in both the second and the third.
  • Head output collapses from 16.9 landed in Round 2 to 6.5 in Round 3, while his most-landed target becomes the leg at 7.8. His Round-1 targeting is 59.6% head; by the third it is 31.7% head and 37.8% leg.
  • Control time evaporates from 39 seconds in the second to 3 in the third, his distance share climbs to 95.1% and his ground output falls to zero.
  • Knockdowns are front-loaded and absolute: 0.40 per opening round, 0.00 in Round 2 — he has never scored a knockdown in a second round in the UFC — and 0.25 in the third.

Azamat Murzakanov

  • Everything rises: accuracy 47.6% → 57.4% → 59.8%, knockdown rate 0.29 → 0.40 → 0.50 per round. There is no round in a three-round fight where he is safe to stand in front of.
  • Round 2 is his volume and body-work peak — 25.0 landed at 57.4% with 7.6 to the body, his busiest body round, and 40 seconds of control.
  • In Round 3 he puts 44% of his landed strikes on the ground (6.0 of 13.5). He drops men and finishes them there: 82% of his career ground strikes land.
  • He is not a leg kicker at all: 0.1, 1.6 and 0.5 landed leg strikes per round. Everything he does is hands and knees to the head and body.
  • His defence is excellent early — opponents land 43.8% of their significant strikes in the first and 41.8% in the second — before rising to 50.0% in the third, where Costa landed 15 of 18 in the finishing sequence.
Critical Insight
Put the two tables side by side and the fight writes itself. Reyes' accuracy drops in the third while Murzakanov's rises every round; Reyes' head output more than halves from the second round to the third while his leg output nearly doubles; Reyes' control disappears while Murzakanov's knockdown rate peaks at 0.50 per round with 44% of his output landing on the ground. Round 3 is the most lopsided round on the projection board, and it belongs to the shorter man — though it is also where Costa caught him. The mirror image is just as clean: Round 1 is Reyes' best round and Murzakanov's statistically weakest — 19.1 landed at 54.5% with a 0.40 knockdown rate against 14.9 landed at 47.6%, his least accurate round.

Strike targeting

Dominick

Head
57%
Body
23%
Legs
20%

Azamat

Head
71%
Body
25%
Legs
4%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DominickAzamat
73%Distance69%
11%Clinch7%
16%Ground24%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceDominick owns it

77" reach, 43.5" leg reach and 4.99 significant strikes a minute (9th of 26) against a man who lands 0.1–1.6 leg strikes a round and must travel to work

Pocket / ExchangesAzamat owns it

56% accuracy and a 1.58 knockdown average (2nd of 26) into 50% strike defence (16th) — a fair exchange is a losing exchange for Reyes

ClinchEven

81% of Reyes' clinch strikes land (60 of 74); Murzakanov's control peaks at 40 seconds in Round 2 with knees to the head and body

GroundAzamat owns it

82% of Murzakanov's ground strikes land and 24% of his career strikes come on the mat, against a man who spends 94% of his fight time standing and has zero Round-3 ground output

Path to Victory

Dominick Reyes

The first five minutes, or fifteen minutes at 77 inches. His knockdown equity is elite in the opening round and effectively gone after it, and behind that sits a proven four-win decision template he used last time out.

Why they win
01
Six inches of height, five and a half of reach

The largest frame gap either man has fought into in years, plus 2.5 inches of leg reach for a teep Murzakanov has no answering weapon for — his leg output is 0.1 to 1.6 landed per round.

02
Round-one knockdown supremacy

0.40 knockdowns per opening round and six of his seven UFC knockdowns, against a man whose statistically weakest round is his first: 14.9 landed at 47.6%, his least accurate round.

03
The common opponent is stark

Reyes finished Dustin Jacoby in 2:00 with two knockdowns. Murzakanov needed the full fifteen minutes against the same man and won 29-28 on all three cards.

04
Closed stance neutralises the Costa blueprint

The rear round kick into the open-side body that set up Murzakanov's knockout has no open side to find southpaw-vs-southpaw. Reyes must find a different door — but Murzakanov also loses his most recently exposed vulnerability.

05
Championship-tier experience

Fifteen UFC fights, 25 minutes with Jon Jones, two title challenges and four opponents who have held the light heavyweight belt; Murzakanov has never faced a UFC champion. Reyes has fought twenty-eight UFC rounds to Murzakanov's sixteen.

06
Nobody built like this has ever finished him

Every man who has stopped Reyes stood 74"+ with a 77"+ reach — Błachowicz, Procházka, Spann, Ulberg. Murzakanov is four to seven inches shorter than all of them.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Live at 77 inches

    Jab, teep, front kick to the body, straight left down the pipe. Every inch he gives back is an inch Murzakanov did not have to earn.

  2. 2
    Attack the first five minutes with real intent

    This is his best round and Murzakanov's worst, and the one window where his knockdown equity is genuinely elite — 0.40 per opening round against a 47.6% opening-round accuracy.

  3. 3
    Calf-kick the lead leg

    In closed stance the outside calf kick is the highest-percentage available weapon, it exploits his 2.5-inch leg-reach edge, and Murzakanov has no meaningful kicking game to answer with.

  4. 4
    Never trade in the pocket on even terms

    Murzakanov's knockdown rate is roughly 2.5× the division average, and Reyes has never won after being dropped. A fair exchange is a losing exchange.

  5. 5
    Bank rounds and be willing to be booed

    He just won fifteen ugly minutes against Johnny Walker. The same performance wins this fight, and it is a far more reliable path than a firefight.

  6. 6
    Contingency — clinch, don't panic-trade

    If he is being reached at range and the jab is not holding, he must clinch and reset: 81% of his clinch strikes land (60 of 74) and it is his safest way to burn a bad minute. Panic-trading is how he lost to Spann, Procházka and Ulberg.

Path to Victory

Azamat Murzakanov

One clean sequence, at any point. A 1.58 knockdown average walking toward a 50% strike defence, on a man who has never once got back up to win.

Why they win
01
1.58 knockdowns per fifteen minutes

Second of 26 in the division and roughly 2.5× the 0.64 average — pointed directly at a man with 50% strike defence (16th of 26) and four career knockout losses.

02
Reyes is 0-4 after being knocked down

Spann, Błachowicz, Procházka, Ulberg: knocked down, never recovered, no salvaged decisions. Murzakanov's entire game is producing that moment, and twelve of his sixteen wins are knockouts.

03
Every UFC win came against a longer man

Six for six, including Aleksandar Rakić — 6'4", 78" reach — stopped in 3:11 of Round 1 a year before this fight. His one loss came against the only opponent without a meaningful reach edge.

04
The round curve is his

Accuracy 47.6 → 57.4 → 59.8%, knockdowns 0.29 → 0.40 → 0.50, momentum "Steady" at 104% of Round-1 output — while Reyes fades to 47.5% accuracy, 6.5 head strikes and three seconds of control.

05
The better defensive line

Strike defence 56% to Reyes' 50%, 3.20 strikes absorbed per minute to 3.40, and takedown defence 89% (6th of 26) to 83%. He is harder to hit than Reyes is, from a shorter frame, which is the hard version of that skill.

06
Two knockouts in this building

Rakić and Menifield both ended at the Etihad Arena. Reyes' only fight in Abu Dhabi was the 2020 title loss to Błachowicz.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Cut the cage, do not chase

    He closed on Rakić (78") and Ribeiro (81") by walking them into the fence, not by sprinting through the middle.

  2. 2
    Invest in the body early

    His Round-2 body output — 7.6 landed — is his busiest body round, and body work is what slows a tall man's footwork and drops his hands.

  3. 3
    Make Reyes throw and counter over the top

    Reyes is a counter-striker himself; whoever wins the patience battle wins the knockdown, and Murzakanov's accuracy advantage compounds in low-volume rounds.

  4. 4
    Get to Round 3 without a deficit

    His accuracy, knockdown rate and ground share all peak there while Reyes' collapse. Even a 1-1 fight entering the third is a fight he should be favoured to close.

  5. 5
    When Reyes wobbles, take him to the mat and finish there

    82% of his ground strikes land, 24% of his career strikes come on the mat, and his opponent is 0-4 after being knocked down.

  6. 6
    Contingency — lead with the body kick and level change

    If he drops Round 1 badly and cannot close distance, he must abandon the counter game: a 20%-accuracy takedown attempt is still a range-collapsing device. Waiting three rounds for a counter he never gets is the shape of the only decision loss available to him.

Danger Zone

How Dominick Reyes loses

  • The Ulberg replay at closer range: he stands in a counter-exchange, Murzakanov's 56% accuracy finds him first, and the knockdown he has never once survived arrives in the opening five minutes. He has been stopped in Round 1 twice — Spann in 1:20, Ulberg in 4:27.

  • He wins the first, fades on schedule and gets finished in the third — head output halved, control gone, opponents connecting at 51.3%, and Murzakanov's 0.50 knockdown peak arriving at exactly the wrong moment. The Nchukwi (R3 0:44) and Clark (R3 1:18) pattern.

  • He wins the Walker fight again and loses it: fifteen cautious minutes at range, not enough output to bank rounds cleanly, and a split decision that goes the other way this time. His last outing was decided by one judge.

Danger Zone

How Azamat Murzakanov loses

  • The slow start costs him everything in a three-rounder. He drops the first, gets out-jabbed at 77 inches for ten more minutes and loses a decision without ever finding the range — a fight he cannot win 29-28 the way he beat Jacoby, because Reyes' volume is higher.

  • He walks into the southpaw straight while closing distance. Reyes' opening-round knockdown rate is 0.40 and his reach means Murzakanov must travel through a firing lane to get to work. Krylov (6'3", 77.5" reach) ate exactly that kind of shot in 2:24.

  • The Costa loss was the beginning, not an aberration. At 37, off his first knockout defeat, a chin that had never been dropped in the Octagon has now been broken once — and the second time is historically easier than the first.

The fight's single load-bearing conditional

The Knockdown Clock

Reyes has been knocked down four times in fifteen UFC fights and his record in those fights is 0-4 — Spann, Błachowicz, Procházka, Ulberg. Not one recovery, not one decision salvaged. Murzakanov's most distinctive statistic in the entire division is his knockdown average: 1.58 per fifteen minutes, second of twenty-six, roughly two and a half times the 0.64 division average, with twelve of sixteen wins by knockout. Layer the timing on top and the fight is a race between a front-loaded gun and a back-loaded one — in a format that gives the back-loaded gun two-thirds of the fight.

1.58
Murzakanov knockdowns per 15 minutes (2nd of 26) into a 50% guard (16th of 26)
The most transferable tape on the card

The Rakić Precedent, and Its Limits

A year before this fight, in this exact arena, Murzakanov walked down a 6'4", 78-inch-reach light heavyweight and stopped him in 3:11 of Round 1, landing three of eight significant strikes in the round — one of which put him down. Dominick Reyes is 6'4" with a 77-inch reach. The limit is honest, though: Rakić arrived 14-5 on a three-fight losing streak, and Brendson Ribeiro, the other long man he stopped in Round 1, is a low-volume striker. Reyes lands nearly five significant strikes a minute at 54% and has seven UFC knockdowns of his own. Murzakanov has proven he can beat length; he has not proven he can beat length that punches back at this level.

3:11
to stop a 6'4" / 78" light heavyweight at the Etihad Arena
Not pacing — surviving

The Fade Signature

In the four fights that reached a third round, Reyes' Round-3 output is 86% of his Round-1 output — a "Slight Fade" — but the raw target distribution is more damning than the label. In Round 1 his landed strikes are 59.6% head, 23.7% body, 16.7% leg. By Round 3 they are 31.7% head, 30.5% body, 37.8% leg — a 27.9-point collapse in head targeting and a 21.1-point rise in leg targeting. His distance share climbs to 95.1%, his clinch work falls to 1.0 landed and his ground work to zero. That is not a fighter pacing himself; that is a fighter who has stopped trying to hurt anyone. Against an opponent whose Round-3 accuracy is 59.8% and whose Round-3 knockdown rate is 0.50, a survival posture is not a plan.

Why the split is 56/44 and not 60/40

Two Suspensions, One Small Denominator

Murzakanov's career is short in a way his 16-1 record disguises: seven UFC appearances and sixteen UFC rounds, against Reyes' fifteen appearances and twenty-eight rounds. Two anti-doping suspensions removed roughly two and a half years from his prime: boldenone metabolites for two years from September 2017, and LGD-4033 metabolites for six months from November 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025, both matters of public record. The analytical consequence is narrow but real — his rate line rests on a thin, discontinuous sample, and one bad night against Costa moved every rate he carries by a visible margin.

Why Reyes' 44% is not lower

Strength of Schedule, Qualitatively

Reyes has fought a former pound-for-pound champion to a five-round decision, challenged for a vacant title, and shared the cage with Procházka, Ulberg, Krylov, Anthony Smith, Cannonier, Weidman, Oezdemir, Saint Preux and Walker — four of his opponents have held the light heavyweight belt. Murzakanov has never faced a UFC champion; his one former title challenger, Paulo Costa, handed him his only loss, and his best win by a distance is Rakić on a losing streak. If this fight is decided by who has been in deeper water, Reyes wins it comfortably. The projection leans the other way because the evidence says it is more likely decided by who lands cleanly first.

The Five-Round Clock

Dominick Reyes danger windowAzamat Murzakanov danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Reyes' window

His best round and Murzakanov's statistically weakest: 19.1 landed at 54.5% with a 0.40 knockdown rate against 14.9 at 47.6%, his least accurate round. Six of his seven UFC knockdowns and eleven of his sixteen career wins live here. If the fight swings red, it swings now.

Critical Insight
Reyes' equity is front-loaded; Murzakanov's is back-loaded — and unlike most such matchups, both curves are documented to the round rather than inferred. A three-round fight gives Reyes exactly one dangerous round and two rounds in which he is the fading man. That asymmetry, more than any single rate, is why we lean blue while keeping the split honest at 56/44.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Reyes' worst statistic and Murzakanov's best point straight at each other: Reyes is hit about as often as he makes men miss, Murzakanov drops opponents at the second-highest rate in the division, and Reyes has never won a UFC fight in which he was knocked down.

2

The clock is inverted. Six of Reyes' seven UFC knockdowns came in Round 1 and none in Round 2; Murzakanov's accuracy and knockdown rate rise every round. Three rounds give Reyes one dangerous round and two fading ones.

3

What keeps it at 56/44: every man who has ever finished Reyes stood 74"+ with a 77"+ reach, and Murzakanov is four to seven inches shorter than all of them. Model: Murzakanov 56% / Reyes 44%, conviction 6/10.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Reyes Decision — 21%Reyes Submission — 2%Reyes KO/TKO — 21%Murzakanov KO/TKO — 37%Murzakanov Decision — 17%Murzakanov Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Dominick Reyes gold · Azamat Murzakanov orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Reyes' Round-1 equity

0.40 knockdowns per opening round, 19.1 landed at 54.5% accuracy and eleven career Round-1 wins, against Murzakanov's 14.9-landed, 47.6%-accuracy opening frame, his least accurate round. This is the branch that produces most of Reyes' 21 knockout wins.

The defensive hole meeting the knockdown rate

Strike defence 50% (16th of 26), four knockout losses and an 0-4 record in fights where he was knocked down, against a 1.58 knockdown average (2nd of 26). Two independent statistics pointing directly at each other is why Murzakanov's knockout bucket is 37.

Six inches against the Rakić precedent

+6" height, +5.5" reach and +2.5" leg reach versus a 6-0 UFC record against longer opponents, including a Round-1 knockout of the 6'4"/78" Rakić in this arena. The reach is why Reyes' decision bucket is 21 and not lower.

The round curves in opposition

Reyes holds around 54% accuracy for two rounds, then drops to 47.5% with a leg-heavy, three-second-of-control third round; Murzakanov runs 47.6 → 57.4 → 59.8% with knockdowns climbing 0.29 → 0.40 → 0.50. In a fifteen-minute fight that asymmetry compounds every branch.

Stance, sample and schedule

The open-side rear round kick that finished Murzakanov at UFC 327 is closed off to a fellow southpaw. Against that sit fifteen UFC bouts and four light heavyweight champions faced versus seven bouts and none, and Murzakanov's two knockout wins in this building.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Knockdown Clock Runs Out

Murzakanov absorbs a rangy opening five minutes, cuts the cage rather than chasing, invests in the body through the second, and detonates one of the cleanest power punches in the division into a guard that has failed four times before. The Rakić and Ribeiro shape — low volume, freakish per-strike consequence — and Reyes has never got back up to win.

Scripted outcomes for Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Dominick Reyes win probability
0%
21%
21%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • His primary path and genuinely live. His Round-1 knockdown rate (0.40) is elite, his reach is the largest advantage on the board, and Murzakanov's opening round is his weakest. Six of his seven UFC knockdowns landed in the first five minutes.

  • His co-primary path and slightly underrated by the market instinct that says "two knockout artists." He has four career decision wins including one six months before this fight, his volume edge is real (4.99 against 4.40 SLpM), and a fifteen-minute range fight is the single most controllable outcome available to him.

  • Two points, and dormant. Two career submissions, the last a rear-naked choke on Jeremy Kimball in December 2017. Treat it as a scramble accident, not a plan.

Azamat Murzakanov win probability
0%
37%
17%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The single largest bucket in the projection, and not a stylistic guess: a 1.58 knockdown average (2nd of 26) meeting a 50% strike defence (16th of 26) on a man who is 0-4 after being knocked down. Twelve of his sixteen wins arrived this way.

  • Deliberately capped. He has one UFC decision — Jacoby, 29-28 across all three cards — and his output floor of 14.9 landed in Round 1 and 13.5 in Round 3 at a "Low Output" pace tier makes him a poor bet to out-point a longer, higher-volume opponent over three rounds.

  • Two points. One career submission, a 2016 neck crank, and zero at UFC level — his mat work is ground-and-pound, not grappling. This is a follow-up-damage artifact.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Dominick
R2
Azamat
R3
Azamat
29-28 Murzakanov
Reyes banks the opening five, Murzakanov takes the second and third
The most likely card if this reaches them
29-28 Reyes
The Walker template — two rounds banked at range and a third survived
His realistic path to the judges, and it needs the round he fades in
30-27 Murzakanov
The slow start never arrives and the body work lands from the opening bell
Less likely — Reyes' first round is statistically the best round either man has

Model and price

Dominick Reyes

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
44%
Fair odds
+127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Azamat Murzakanov

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
56%
Fair odds
-127
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Dominick Reyes

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Azamat Murzakanov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Murzakanov by KO/TKO is the structural play: the largest bucket on the board at 37%, supported by two independent statistics that point at each other — his 1.58 knockdown average and Reyes' 0-4 record after being knocked down. Fight ends in Round 1 is the sharpest correlated angle at roughly 23%, the largest single-round cluster, because 21 of these two men's 32 career wins ended in the opening frame and their most dangerous documented five minutes overlap. Reyes by decision is the live contrarian ticket at 21% — he won fifteen minutes at range six months before this fight and Murzakanov's decision engine is genuinely weak. The rest of our model: the fight does not go the distance 62%, goes the distance 38%, Murzakanov inside the distance 39%, Reyes inside the distance 23%, Murzakanov by decision 17%, ends in Round 2 roughly 18%, ends in Round 3 roughly 21%, either fighter scores a knockdown roughly 68%. Avoid Reyes inside the distance at short prices: his knockout equity is real but confined almost entirely to one round, against a man who has never been finished by anyone under 6'1".

Conviction
0
6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A clear, evidence-led lean to the harder puncher with the better defensive line and the favourable round curve — held back from higher conviction by five and a half inches of reach, a championship-tier résumé gap, Murzakanov's least accurate round coming first, and the fact that no fighter of his dimensions has ever finished Dominick Reyes. Lean: Azamat Murzakanov.

What backs the lean

  • A 1.58 knockdown average (2nd of 26) meeting 50% strike defence (16th of 26) — the two most extreme statistics in the matchup point directly at each other.

  • Reyes is 0-4 in fights where he has been knocked down: no recoveries, no salvaged decisions, four knockout losses in fifteen UFC fights.

  • The round curves diverge his way — accuracy 47.6 → 57.4 → 59.8% and knockdowns 0.29 → 0.40 → 0.50, against Reyes' 54.5 → 53.7 → 47.5%, collapsing head output and three seconds of Round-3 control.

  • Every one of his six UFC wins came against a longer opponent, including a Round-1 knockout of a 6'4"/78" Rakić in this same arena a year before this fight.

  • Better across accuracy, absorption, strike defence and takedown defence — the more efficient fighter from the shorter frame.

  • Two knockout wins at the Etihad Arena; Reyes' only Abu Dhabi appearance was the 2020 title loss to Błachowicz.

What limits it

  • +6" height, +5.5" reach and +2.5" leg reach — the widest frame gap on the card, and the tool set to fight an entire night without being touched.

  • Every man who has ever finished Reyes stood 74"+ with a 77"+ reach. Murzakanov is four to seven inches shorter than all four of them.

  • Round 1 belongs to Reyes statistically — 19.1 landed at 54.5% with a 0.40 knockdown rate, against Murzakanov's least accurate round (47.6%).

  • The common opponent favours Reyes decisively: Jacoby finished in 2:00 with two knockdowns versus a fifteen-minute 29-28 grind.

  • Championship-tier schedule — four light heavyweight champions faced to Murzakanov's none — fifteen UFC bouts against seven, and a proven four-win decision template.

  • Closed stance removes the exact weapon that beat Murzakanov — no open-side rear round kick to the body, no Costa blueprint to copy.

  • Murzakanov is 37, off his first knockout loss, with only sixteen UFC rounds and two anti-doping suspensions bracketing his prime.

Final Assessment

In roughly 56 of 100 simulations, Azamat "The Professional" Murzakanov solves the six inches. Most often he does it the way he solved Rakić and Ribeiro — cutting the cage, absorbing a rangy opening five minutes, investing in the body through the second, and then detonating one of the cleanest power punches in the division into a guard that has failed four times before (37% by knockout). Sometimes he grinds out the ugly, low-output decision his Jacoby night proved he can win (17%), and occasionally he drops Reyes and finishes the job on the mat, where 82% of his strikes land (2% by submission). The path is not exotic: it is a 1.58 knockdown average walking toward a 50% strike defence, in a fight where the target has never once got back up to win.

In the other 44, "The Devastator" fights the fight his frame was built for. Twenty-one times he ends it early — the jab holds, the southpaw straight lands on a closing man, and the Christensen–Weidman–Jacoby–Krylov pattern repeats in the one round where his knockdown equity is elite and Murzakanov's guard is at its most porous. Twenty-one more times he simply refuses to give the fight away: he teeps, jabs, calf-kicks the lead leg, banks three rounds at 77 inches and hears the boos he heard in Miami on his way to a decision he does not need to apologise for. Twice, a scramble hands him something he has not taken since 2017.

The data gives Murzakanov the harder hands, the cleaner defence, the rising round curve, the venue and the single most damning conditional on the board — Reyes has never survived a knockdown. It gives Reyes five and a half inches of reach, the deeper résumé, the better round one, the common opponent and the fact that nobody built like Murzakanov has ever put him away. On October 24 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi we take The Professional narrowly and expect it inside the distance — but this is a 56/44 fight, not a 70/30 one, and Dominick Reyes' first five minutes are live enough to end the night before the lean is ever tested.

Back to UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Fight Card
Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.