Alberta gets its homecoming. On Saturday, October 17, Rogers Place hosts five welterweight rounds: knockout artist Joaquin Buckley (21-8) against Edmonton's own Mike Malott (14-2-1) — and the loudest number on the card is Malott's 57% takedown defense, well below the ~68.7% welterweight average. Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius takes the women's flyweight co-main. Model lean: Buckley ~62%. Live on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM MT.
Get picks for this card — model picks + card previews in your inbox.
A five-round welterweight homecoming built on one terrifying number: Joaquin Buckley (21-8, 0.73 knockdown average) brings the spinning-kick highlight reel and a wrestling tax against Edmonton's own Mike Malott (14-2-1) and his 57% takedown defense — well below the welterweight average. Model lean: Buckley ~62%.
BetOnline is our preferred reference when available. We show the selected source and implied probability; this is not a guarantee of the best price across all books. Check the capture date before treating an estimated edge as current.
Main event
Welterweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 12/12 · Analyses available: 12/12
Tactical key
Buckley can use takedown threats to disrupt Malott's striking rhythm and test his recorded 57% takedown defence. Malott's offensive grappling remains a counterweight: Buckley needs disciplined entries and top position, because getting the fight down can also create Malott's best submission opportunities.
What limits this estimate
Joaquin Buckley: Make him defend. One clean entry into a 57% takedown defence — against Buckley's own 70% sprawl — turns a competitive kickboxing match into a control-and-ground-and-pound tax that compounds for twenty-five minutes.
Mike Malott: Shoot first and finish. His live paths are Radtke and Fugitt — initiate the opening scramble, chain to the neck or the back, and end it before Buckley's curve starts climbing.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Blanchfield's higher published striking output creates a route to make Jasudavicius defend before wrestling. Jasudavicius's greater takedown rate means the clinch can also become her scoring phase. At three rounds, neither can rely on a five-round recovery arc: early positional losses consume a larger share of the fight.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Erin Blanchfield
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Jasudavicius can reverse the fight's direction through her own entries; her higher takedown rate prevents treating this as one-way wrestling.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Jourdain's recorded striking output is substantially higher than Cuamba's, giving him a route through pace and repeated scoring exchanges. Cuamba needs to deny comfortable combinations and make Jourdain reset. The size and quality of each fighter's sample limit how directly those rates translate to this matchup.
What limits this estimate
Louis Jourdain: Make the first round count. 7.32 significant strikes a minute against an opponent who lands 7.8 in a whole opening round at 32% accuracy, in front of a crowd that will carry the pace — and if the shot comes off a failed takedown, the neck is there.
Timmy Cuamba: Shoot before minute five, and hold. He wins on control minutes without ever needing a finish, but every logged first round says he starts late, and starting late against this profile is how the fight is lost before his best rounds arrive.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Nallo's all-stoppage professional record contrasts with Landwehr's experience winning decisions. Nallo needs to turn early openings into damaging sequences; Landwehr can test him by surviving the initial burst and maintaining pressure. A long fight creates a different test, but does not guarantee Nallo fades.
What limits this estimate
Mandel Nallo: End it before minute six. Four straight round-one finishes, both by knockout and by choke, against a man who concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns in an average opening round.
Nate Landwehr: Still be there at 5:00 of the first. Everything after that is his — the 34-strike second round, the 9:52 average, the seven decision wins, and an opponent who has never once won a fight on the cards.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Horth's better recorded accuracy and lower strike absorption support a plan based on cleaner exchanges rather than simply throwing more. Cerminara needs to control distance and prevent Horth from setting the rhythm; Horth must still create openings against an opponent with substantial decision experience.
What limits this estimate
Jamey-Lyn Horth: Fifteen minutes of being the cleaner fighter. She does not need a finish — she needs to close the two inches, bank the clinch and the body work, and out-land a 35%-accuracy opponent by a margin no judge can misread.
Katlyn Cerminara: Three ambiguous rounds at 68 inches. If she never has to fight off the fence and the timing came back intact, fifteen decision wins say she knows exactly which touches score.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
The recorded UFC sample contains no takedown attempts from either Boser or Diniz, so distance management and the quality of striking exchanges are the clearer tactical signals. A clinch or wrestling adjustment could change that picture; low observed usage should not be treated as an inability to grapple.
What limits this estimate
Tanner Boser: Fifteen minutes. Eight career decision wins, six UFC third rounds, an average fight time of 10:52 and a Round-2 engine averaging 28 significant strikes landed at 58% — if this fight is still upright and competitive in minute eleven, it is his.
Jhonata Diniz: One straight right down the middle, thrown from four inches further out than Boser is used to, inside the first ten minutes — the punch Gokhan Saricam found six months ago.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Croden's recorded balance of strikes landed and absorbed is stronger than Chandler's, supporting a plan built on clean exchanges. Chandler needs to disrupt that space through pressure and clinch work. The key is whether Croden can keep her defensive efficiency when exchanges become less controlled.
What limits this estimate
Melissa Croden: Survive the first five minutes without giving up an arm, then take the fight to the mat. Control triples by Round 3, accuracy climbs to 50-55%, and four of her six career knockouts land in the final frame.
Chelsea Chandler: Get it to the mat inside five minutes and catch the arm. The armbar is a 0.42 technique rate on an Early Hunter timing profile, it finished Priscila Cachoeira at R1 3:42, and it has a five-minute shelf life.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Daukaus's submission threat becomes relevant when Barriault closes into the clinch and exposes his neck during entries or exits. Barriault needs posture, hand-fighting and separation before resuming pressure; Daukaus must create those openings rather than rely on submission history alone.
What limits this estimate
Marc-André Barriault: Survive the first five minutes without offering his neck, then let the arithmetic run — 36.5 significant strikes in Round 2 into a defence that holds at 42% and leaks to 59% in exactly that round.
Kyle Daukaus: One front headlock. Barriault's clinch entry is the D'Arce's doorway, and eight men have already walked through it.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Urbina can connect striking volume with clinch attacks and takedowns, forcing Leblanc to defend more than one phase. Leblanc's answer is to counter the rush or attack during transitions. His brief UFC debut provides too little evidence to treat the apparent gap in striking rates as stable.
What limits this estimate
Gilbert Urbina: Land the Čepo start. Volume into the clinch, elbows, the head kick that ended Cosce, or the 2.86 takedowns before Leblanc finds the neck.
Julien Leblanc: Survive the first three minutes, keep it southpaw at kicking range, and make a Vulnerable chin pay — or get the fight to the mat the way Valentin did.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Koslow's submission game targets Anheliger's recorded 38% takedown defence, making entry defence and the first scramble crucial. Anheliger needs to separate and build striking exchanges without exposing his back. Koslow's single UFC appearance and long layoff make his sustained wrestling pace uncertain.
What limits this estimate
Chad Anheliger: Win the striking minutes at range, sprawl on the first 5.28 entries, and either outwork him on the cards or find a late TKO the way he finished Strader — without giving up his back in Round 3.
Steven Koslow: Close distance, chain takedowns against 38% TDD, ride to a rear-naked choke or kimura before Anheliger's volume accumulates — or hurt him standing late the way Saaiman did.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Sutherland's published takedown rate suggests that clinch entries are central to his approach. Mahjoub has no UFC statistical sample, so Sutherland's numbers cannot be compared with an assumed zero on the other side. First-contact balance, grip fighting and the ability to regain position are the useful questions.
Editorial forecast: No clear lean
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Sutherland's low recorded takedown defence is a reason to investigate the matchup, not proof that the debutant will exploit it.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
You's recorded wrestling frequency gives him a repeatable route through clinch entries and control. Chovancek's undefeated record and Contender Series result are relevant experience, but they are not a UFC sample. His response to the second and third entry matters more than a single initial sprawl.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Su Young You
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Chovancek's regional experience is not captured by an empty UFC sample; the selection weakens if You cannot complete follow-up entries.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Edmonton — the narrative, the card spotlights, the questions everyone asks, and how the model reads the data.
The Story
UFC Canada lands at Rogers Place with a five-round welterweight homecoming built on a single terrifying number. Highlight-reel knockout artist Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley (21-8, 0.73 knockdown average, 76-inch reach) meets Edmonton's own Mike "Proper" Malott (14-2-1), whose 57% takedown defense is a real question mark against anyone who shoots — well below the welterweight average — and Buckley averages 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. This is spinning kicks and title-level experience against Alberta crowd energy, and the fight lives or dies on whether Malott can force his scramble before Buckley finds the highlight. The co-main is three rounds of grappling chess: Erin Blanchfield (14-2) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4) at women's flyweight.
MMA Analytics leans Buckley near 62%; the Blanchfield–Jasudavicius forecast is pending. Malott's live path is the early level-change finish — 0.7 submissions per 15 and cleaner 48% accuracy — before the wrestling tax compounds across five rounds. The Paramount+ card stacks Canadian talent: Louis Jourdain (7.32 significant strikes per minute) vs. Timmy Cuamba, finish-or-bust Mandel Nallo vs. durable Nate Landwehr, and Gilbert Urbina vs. Julien Leblanc at middleweight. Each matchup has a dedicated page. Available forecasts and quotes are shown separately from previews awaiting analysis.
Main Event — Welterweight (5 Rounds)
01Buckley vs. Malott
Buckley's 0.73 knockdown average and 1.43 takedowns per 15 point at Malott's 57% takedown defense, well below the welterweight average. Model leans ~62% Buckley in Malott's hometown.
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Women's Flyweight
02Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius
Five rounds of grappling chess: Blanchfield's (14-2) submission ceiling and five-round pace against Jasudavicius's (15-4) home wrestling. Model leans ~60% Blanchfield.
Full breakdown
Prelim Spotlight
03Jourdain vs. Cuamba
Canadian Louis Jourdain (9-3) lands elite volume — 7.32 significant strikes per minute against 2.44 absorbed — against Timmy Cuamba (10-4), whose wrestling is the underdog path.
Full breakdown
Home Soil
04Edmonton at Rogers Place
Mike Malott and Louis Jourdain headline a Canadian-heavy lineup at Rogers Place — and finish-or-bust Mandel Nallo vs. durable Nate Landwehr is the prelim built for chaos in front of the Alberta crowd.
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott is UFC Edmonton — a UFC Canada Fight Night on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. The five-round welterweight main event pairs highlight-reel knockout artist Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley (21-8, 0.73 knockdown average) against hometown favorite Mike "Proper" Malott (14-2-1), whose 57% takedown defense — well below the ~68.7% welterweight average — is the loudest number on the card. The co-main is three rounds of women's flyweight grappling: Erin Blanchfield (14-2) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4). The twelve-fight lineup is stacked with Canadians, including Louis Jourdain, Mandel Nallo, Tanner Boser, Marc-André Barriault, and Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow. MMA Analytics leans Buckley ~62%; the Blanchfield–Jasudavicius forecast is pending. The card streams on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET (3:00 PM MT local).
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott streams live from Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada on Saturday, October 17, 2026, with the main card beginning at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Because Alberta runs on Mountain Time, the in-arena main card is a mid-afternoon 3:00 PM MT local start — 2:00 PM PT on the West Coast. Viewers in the United Kingdom and Ireland should expect a 10:00 PM BST window, and Central Europe tunes in at 11:00 PM CET. It is a comfortable early-evening window on the US East Coast and a true hometown matinee in Edmonton. Prelims begin roughly two hours before the main card, around 3:00 PM ET / 1:00 PM MT, also on Paramount+. All listed times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes; the timezone grid on this page covers ET, MT, PT, BST, and CET at a glance.
The Edmonton card features Joaquin Buckley (21-8) vs. Mike Malott (14-2-1) in the welterweight main event and Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius in the women's flyweight co-main. Supporting bouts include Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba, Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr, Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Katlyn Cerminara, Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz, Melissa Croden vs. Chelsea Chandler, Marc-André Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus, Gilbert Urbina vs. Julien Leblanc, and Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow on a Canadian-heavy roster.
MMA Analytics currently favors Joaquin Buckley at approximately 62% win probability versus Mike Malott at 38% for the UFC Edmonton main event at Rogers Place. The lean is built on Buckley's 0.73 knockdown average, spinning-kick KO threat, and 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes pointed directly at Malott's 57% takedown defense — a number well below the welterweight average against anyone who shoots. Malott's outs are real: the Rogers Place home roar, 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes, and cleaner striking accuracy (48% vs 36%) if he wins the first scramble. The model prices the takedown asymmetry across five rounds, while the Alberta crowd keeps Malott's early finish equity live. On the same card, Erin Blanchfield faces Jasmine Jasudavicius with an updated forecast pending in the three-round co-main. Full fight pages compare these model probabilities to BetOnline odds.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buckley vs Malott🟢 | Joaquin BuckleyModel favorite | 62% | N/A— | Mike Malott | 38% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJoaquin Buckley62%——Mike Malott38%—— Our read: We favor Joaquin Buckley. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius🟢 | Erin Blanchfield | — | N/A— | Jasmine Jasudavicius | — | N/A— | Our lean: Erin Blanchfield A numerical win estimate is not available yet, so we cannot assess the price gap. |
| Horth vs Cerminara🟢 | Jamey-Lyn HorthModel favorite | 67% | N/A— | Katlyn Cerminara | 33% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJamey-Lyn Horth67%——Katlyn Cerminara33%—— Our read: We favor Jamey-Lyn Horth. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Boser vs Diniz🟢 | Tanner Boser | 43% | N/A— | Jhonata DinizModel favorite | 57% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapTanner Boser43%——Jhonata Diniz57%—— Our read: We favor Jhonata Diniz. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Croden vs Chandler🟡 | Melissa CrodenModel favorite | 68% | N/A— | Chelsea Chandler | 32% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapMelissa Croden68%——Chelsea Chandler32%—— Our read: We favor Melissa Croden. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Barriault vs Daukaus🟢 | Marc-André Barriault | 46% | N/A— | Kyle DaukausModel favorite | 54% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapMarc-André Barriault46%——Kyle Daukaus54%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Kyle Daukaus. A market price is needed to assess value. |
