Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba – UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Louis Jourdain

“The Mad Prince”

9W3L

Volume Striker

Timmy Cuamba

“Twilight”

10W4L

Wrestling-First

7.32 strikes a minute against 2.88, in a building that wants the Canadian

BantamweightRogers Place, Edmonton, AlbertaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Jourdain's recorded striking output is substantially higher than Cuamba's, giving him a route through pace and repeated scoring exchanges. Cuamba needs to deny comfortable combinations and make Jourdain reset. The size and quality of each fighter's sample limit how directly those rates translate to this matchup.

Paths that change the fight

Louis JourdainMake the first round count. 7.32 significant strikes a minute against an opponent who lands 7.8 in a whole opening round at 32% accuracy, in front of a crowd that will carry the pace — and if the shot comes off a failed takedown, the neck is there.
Timmy CuambaShoot before minute five, and hold. He wins on control minutes without ever needing a finish, but every logged first round says he starts late, and starting late against this profile is how the fight is lost before his best rounds arrive.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Every Jourdain figure on this page comes from a single 10:39 Contender Series bout — regression against UFC opposition is the base case, not a risk.
Cuamba owns the only functioning takedown offence in the fight (1.18 per fifteen minutes) against an opponent whose own reads 0.00.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Louis Jourdain

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 56%
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Reference quote—

Timmy Cuamba

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 44%
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample and reporting dates available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A 9-3 Quebecer who has never fought in the Octagon, against a 10-4 veteran of five of them who is coming off a rear-naked choke. Louis Jourdain's entire measured record is one Contender Series night: 78 significant strikes in 10 minutes 39 seconds, 7.32 landed per minute against 2.44 absorbed, one knockdown, one submission attempt, and a rear-naked choke 39 seconds into the third round. Timmy Cuamba's four logged Octagon bouts say something quieter and more specific — he lands 7.8 significant strikes in an average first round at 32% accuracy, with twelve seconds of control. Then he wakes up: 19.5 strikes at 60% in the second, 113 seconds of control by the third. The model has Jourdain 56% because the first five minutes in Edmonton belong to the man who throws, and because Cuamba's most recent night ended with somebody on his back.

Louis Jourdain

Attribute

Timmy Cuamba

Age

5'9"

Height

5'9"

69"

Reach

+2" Cuamba71"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Brazilian Top Team Canada

Team

Not published

None — Contender Series, Sep 30, 2025

Octagon Debut

Feb 10, 2024 (Oki, L)

High-volume striking, opportunistic chokes

Fighting Style

Wrestling-first pressure, KO or decision

Identical height at 5'9", and the only physical separation is two inches of reach to Cuamba — 71" against 69". Two years of age favour the visitor as well, 27 against 29, though both sit in the middle of a bantamweight prime. The real gap is not measured in inches: it is output density. Jourdain's single logged fight produced 7.32 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.44 absorbed; Cuamba's four produce 2.88 landed against 3.72 absorbed. One man lands three times what he takes, the other takes more than he lands. Cuamba's two inches only matter if he can hold a range long enough to use them, and eleven rounds of statistical record evidence say he spends his first five minutes at distance landing 7.8 strikes at 32% accuracy.

Venue Factor
Three rounds in Rogers Place, and the round count is the whole argument. Cuamba's own numbers make him a second- and third-round fighter — 12 seconds of control in an average opening round, 59 in the second, 113 in the third — which means a fifteen-minute fight gives him exactly two rounds of his best work and one round of his worst. That worst round is the one an Edmonton crowd will be loudest for, and it is the one where Jourdain's 7.32 significant strikes a minute meet a 32% first-round accuracy. There is no championship distance here to reward the deeper wrestling tank; the fight is decided before the wrestling normally arrives.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Louis Jourdain

Pro Record

9-3-0

UFC Record

No Octagon bouts — Contender Series 1-0

Streak

Four straight wins — three TKOs and a third-round rear-naked choke

Finish Rate

~67% (6 finishes in 9 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

10:39 (one logged bout)

Chin · Untested at UFC level — zero knockout losses in twelve pro fightsSOS · Regional + Contender proofVolume striker who submits when the neck appears

A four-fight finishing run that ends with the only night anybody has measured. He stopped Gabe Sagman in the second at Unified 48 in December 2022, Diego Silva in the first at Samourai MMA 6 in May 2023 and Danilo Adreani at 4:51 of the second at Samourai MMA 14 in May 2025 — a pattern of volume compounding into late-round stoppages rather than one-punch endings. Then the Contender Series, 30 September 2025, and a rear-naked choke on Magno Dias 39 seconds into the third round. That fight is the only one in the statistical record, and it produced numbers a bantamweight prospect rarely posts: 78 significant strikes across 10:39, 86% of them landed standing, 7.32 per minute against a divisional average of 4.41, and 2.44 absorbed against an average of 3.95. Three losses sit behind all of it — two by submission, one a unanimous decision to Avliyohon Hamidov at UAE Warriors 15 in January 2021 — and the decision loss is the one that matters here, because it is the shape Cuamba's five decision wins take.

Timmy Cuamba

Pro Record

10-4-0

UFC Record

2-3 across five bouts since February 2024

Streak

Lost his last — Benardo Sopaj, rear-naked choke, R2 2:25 (May 2026)

Finish Rate

50% (5 KO/TKO of 10 wins) — zero career submissions

Avg Fight Time

13:29 across four logged Octagon bouts

Chin · Never knocked out — both inside-distance losses came by submission; two knockdowns absorbed (Almeida, Sopaj)SOS · UFC mid-tierWrestling-first pressure fighter

Five Octagon fights and a quiet descent through the divisions. The statistical record logs his debut as a lightweight bout against Bolaji Oki in February 2024 — a split-decision loss — then featherweight against Lucas Almeida in June 2024, another decision loss in which he absorbed a knockdown, then featherweight again for the flying-knee knockout of Roberto Romero at 3:55 of the second in April 2025, then bantamweight for the unanimous decision over Chang Ho Lee in November 2025. Two weight classes shed in four fights, and the two wins arrived once he stopped giving away size. What the record does not soften is May 2026: Benardo Sopaj dropped him and finished him with a rear-naked choke at 2:25 of the second — his second absorbed knockdown and second submission loss. That is the fourth loss, and the reason a fighter with zero submission wins of his own is now walking into somebody with 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes. His identity is otherwise clear and durable — five knockouts, five decisions, and eleven logged rounds showing control time that climbs from 12 seconds to 113 across a fight.

Louis Jourdain

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Timmy Cuamba

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Louis Jourdainsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeMagno Dias at 0:39 of the third on the Contender Series; 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes against a 0.51 division average

×2

Compounding Pocket VolumeFour TKO wins, three of them at 4:51 or later in their round; 7.32 significant strikes a minute with 86% landed standing

×4

Timmy Cuambasignature weapons

Flying KneeRoberto Romero, R2 3:55, April 2025 — his only Octagon finish and his only knockdown in eleven logged rounds

×1

Late Control WrestlingControl time climbs 12s → 59s → 113s across rounds one to three; the Chang Ho Lee unanimous decision is the template

×1

Louis Jourdain

Magno Dias

Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (0:39)

Contender Series — Sep 30, 2025

Danilo Adreani

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:51)

Samourai MMA 14 — May 9, 2025

Diego Silva

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (5:00)

Samourai MMA 6 — May 26, 2023

Gabe Sagman

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (5:00)

Unified MMA 48 — Dec 16, 2022

Avliyohon Hamidov

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UAE Warriors 15 — Jan 15, 2021

Pattern

Four wins, four different ways of getting late. Silva went in the first, Sagman and Adreani in the second, Dias in the third — and three of the four finishes landed at 4:51 or later in their round, which is the signature of accumulation rather than a single shot. The Contender Series choke is the outlier and the most useful entry on the list: it says that when a bantamweight is tired and turning away in a third round, Jourdain knows what to do with the back. The counter-evidence is the oldest line here — Avliyohon Hamidov out-pointed him over three rounds in January 2021, which is the exact result Cuamba's résumé is built out of.

Timmy Cuamba

Benardo Sopaj

Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (2:25)

UFC Fight Night — May 16, 2026

Chang Ho Lee

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Garcia vs. Onama — Nov 1, 2025

Roberto Romero

KO/TKO — Flying knee

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (3:55)

UFC FN: Machado Garry vs. Prates — Apr 26, 2025

Lucas Almeida

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC FN: Perez vs. Taira — Jun 15, 2024

Bolaji Oki

Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Hermansson vs. Pyfer — Feb 10, 2024

Pattern

Two wins and three losses, and the split is almost perfectly clean. He wins when he wrestles and banks minutes (Chang Ho Lee, unanimous) or when chaos off an entry produces power (Roberto Romero, flying knee at 3:55 of the second). He loses when the fight is a striking contest he cannot slow down (Almeida, Oki — both decisions; Almeida also scored a knockdown) or when a scramble turns into somebody taking his back after a knockdown (Sopaj, rear-naked choke at 2:25 of the second). Two knockdowns absorbed across five Octagon nights. Three of his five appearances went the full fifteen minutes, so the deep water is genuinely his; the problem is the shallow end, where four logged first rounds average 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy.

Louis Jourdain

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Timmy Cuamba

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two honest caveats before the shapes mean anything. Jourdain's donut is scoped to the eight of his nine wins the dossier accounts for by method — 4 knockouts, 2 submissions, 2 decisions — because the ninth is not documented anywhere, and the round chart shows only the six wins whose round is on record. Cuamba's donut covers all ten of his wins, but only two of his finishes and decisions have published rounds; the DEC column is complete at five, the knockout column is not. Read past that and the tables state the matchup in one line: Jourdain finishes two ways, Cuamba finishes one. Cuamba has zero submission wins in fourteen professional fights and two submission losses, the most recent of them three months before this booking.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Louis	Timmy
Benardo Sopaj (style proxy)	—(blueprint for Jourdain)	L· RNC R2 2:25 (May 2026)
A submission hunter took Cuamba's back and finished him in the second. Jourdain's only measured win is a rear-naked choke, and his 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes are nearly three times the divisional average
Avliyohon Hamidov (style proxy)	L· UD3 (Jan 2021)	—(blueprint for Cuamba)
A durable card-banker out-pointed Jourdain across three rounds — the only template on his record for the fight Cuamba's five decision wins describe

0.0

Louissmall sample

0.0

Timmy

Ten composite points against a six-point model line. The compression is deliberate: every Jourdain figure comes from one Contender Series fight, and Cuamba's wrestling path is real regardless of what the gauges say.

Metric	Louis	Timmy
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:39 (one logged bout)small sample	13:29 (four Octagon bouts)
Pace Tier	Elite volume — 7.32 SLpM vs a 4.41 division averagesmall sample	Low volume — 2.88 SLpM
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	No round-by-round datasmall sample	167% (13.0 vs 7.8 sig)
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	Unmeasured — no logged first roundssmall sample	Severe — 7.8 sig at 32% accuracy, 12s control
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Striker 56%44% Wrestling-First Pressure

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 56-44 line is a reprice: the site model originally sat at roughly Cuamba 54 on the strength of his Octagon experience, and the analysis moved it after the rate lines were read side by side — a 2.5-times volume gap, an inverted absorption ledger, 1.4 submission attempts into a fighter with zero submission wins and a fresh choke loss, and a home cage in Edmonton.

Louis JourdainTimmy Cuamba

Bantamweight

· 79 fighters

Stat	Louis	Louis rank	Div avg	Timmy rank	Timmy
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	7.32	—	~4.41	—	2.88
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	49%	—	~47.2%	—	42%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	54%	—	~54.2%	—	55%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.44	—	~3.95	—	3.72
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	1.41	—	~0.54	—	~0.28
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	3.00	—	~1.12	—	0.77
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00	—	~1.50	—	1.18
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	66%	—	~67.5%	—	71%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.40	—	~0.51	—	0.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:39 (one bout)	—	—	—	13:29 (four bouts)

Statistical Verdict
Read purely as numbers, Jourdain's column is a contender's: 66% above the divisional average in output, 38% below it in absorption, a damage ratio of 3.00 against 1.12, and nearly three times the divisional submission rate. Read as evidence, it is one fight against Magno Dias on a Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Cuamba's column is the mirror image in both senses — genuinely below average where it counts for a striker (2.88 output, 42% accuracy, 3.72 absorbed) and genuinely above it where he actually lives, with 71% takedown defence and the only functioning takedown offence in the fight. The one row that decides this page is Sub/15: 1.40 against 0.00, into a man who was choked out in May.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Louis Jourdain

No round-by-round rows exist. Jourdain has never fought in the Octagon and his Contender Series bout is not in the round-level dataset, so there is no output, accuracy, control-time or knockdown curve to draw — these rows are empty rather than estimated.
What the fighter-level row does give is a positional split across that single bout: 67 of his 78 significant strikes landed standing (86%), 4 in the clinch (5%) and 7 on the ground (9%). He is a range fighter who visited the mat once, and finished the fight when he got there.
The finish log is the only other round-level evidence: a rear-naked choke at 0:39 of the third, a TKO at 4:51 of the second, a TKO at 5:00 of the second and a TKO at 5:00 of the first. Three of his four finishes arrived in the closing seconds of a round.

Timmy Cuamba

The slow start is not a narrative, it is four logged first rounds: 7.8 significant strikes landed at 32% accuracy, with twelve seconds of control and zero ground strikes. He gives away the opening five minutes almost every time.
Then the fight changes shape. Round two is his best round by a distance — 19.5 significant strikes at 60% accuracy, 59 seconds of control, and the only knockdown in his logged record (the flying knee on Roberto Romero).
Control time climbs 12 → 59 → 113 seconds and his targeting drops with it: 38.5% of his third-round strikes go to the body and 28.2% land on the ground, against 0% ground in the first. The wrestling is real, it just arrives at the ten-minute mark.

Critical Insight
This is the fight's actual mechanism, and it is visible in one row. Cuamba's average first round is 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy with twelve seconds of control and nothing on the ground — he is not wrestling early, he is waiting. His own gameplan needs him to shoot in the first five minutes; eleven rounds of evidence say he never has. Jourdain's side of the chart is blank because he has no Octagon rounds at all, which cuts the other way: the 7.32 strikes a minute is a projection from one Contender Series night, and Cuamba's second and third rounds are exactly where a projection like that gets tested.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Timmy

65%

23%

12%

Head

65%

Body

23%

Legs

12%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Louis · N/ATimmy

—Distance80%

—Clinch11%

—Ground9%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceLouis owns it

7.32 SLpM at 49% accuracy against 2.88 at 42%, with 86% of Jourdain's measured strikes landed standing

Pocket / ExchangesLouis owns it

2.44 absorbed per minute against 3.72 — a 3.00 damage ratio against 0.77 in a division averaging 1.12

ClinchTimmy owns it

15.4% of Cuamba's second-round offence is clinch work; Jourdain landed 4 of 78 strikes there on his only tape

GroundEven

Cuamba's control climbs to 113 seconds by the third with zero submission offence; Jourdain answers with 1.4 attempts per 15 and a choke on his only night

Path to Victory

Louis Jourdain

Make the first round count. 7.32 significant strikes a minute against an opponent who lands 7.8 in a whole opening round at 32% accuracy, in front of a crowd that will carry the pace — and if the shot comes off a failed takedown, the neck is there.

Why they win

A two-and-a-half-times volume gap

7.32 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.88, at 49% accuracy against 42%. The divisional average is 4.41 — one of these men is well above it and the other is well below.

The absorption ledger is inverted

2.44 absorbed per minute against 3.72. Jourdain lands three strikes for every one he takes; Cuamba takes more than he lands. That is a 3.00 damage ratio against 0.77, in a division that averages 1.12.

1.4 submission attempts into a zero-submission fighter

Nearly three times the divisional rate of 0.51, and a rear-naked choke at 0:39 of the third round on his only measured night — against a man with no submission wins in fourteen fights and a choke loss in May.

Rogers Place

A Quebec fighter on Canadian soil in a card built around a hometown main event. Home-cage adrenaline pays out on early pace and on close rounds, and this fight has at least one of each.

He finishes late in rounds

Three of four documented finishes landed at 4:51 or later in their round, plus a choke 39 seconds into a third. He does not need round-one chaos; he needs the round to keep going.

Cuamba's first round is empty

7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy with twelve seconds of control and zero ground offence, averaged across four logged Octagon first rounds. That is a free round for anybody who throws.

The gameplan

1
Spend the first round
It is the cheapest round on the card. Cuamba averages 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy in an opening round; there is no reason not to bank it decisively and let the building do the rest.
2
Sprawl and punch on every entry
66% takedown defence is workable against 31% takedown accuracy. Make the shot expensive with knees and underhooks, and let the failed entries pile up rather than the successful ones.
3
Take the back the moment it turns
This is the whole matchup edge. 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes into a fighter with zero submission wins and a rear-naked choke loss three months ago — the Sopaj tape is the instruction manual.
4
Never accept passive bottom position
Cuamba's control time triples from round one to round three. Losing a round is survivable; giving away 113 seconds of it while doing nothing is how a 56% favourite loses a decision.
5
Push the pace into the third
His only two late finishes came at 4:51 of a second round and 0:39 of a third. The volume that scores rounds is the same volume that produces the stoppage — there is no reason to change gears.

Path to Victory

Timmy Cuamba

Shoot before minute five, and hold. He wins on control minutes without ever needing a finish, but every logged first round says he starts late, and starting late against this profile is how the fight is lost before his best rounds arrive.

Why they win

The only functioning wrestling in the fight

1.18 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 31% accuracy against an opponent whose takedown offence reads 0.00 and whose takedown defence is 66% — below the 67.5% divisional average.

Five Octagon fights against Jourdain's none

Three of them went the full fifteen minutes. He knows UFC pace, UFC judging and what a third round feels like in this promotion; his opponent's only relevant night was a Contender Series audition.

Two inches of reach and 71% takedown defence

The physical edge and the defensive one both belong to him. If he keeps range and refuses the pocket, the volume gap narrows to something he can survive.

He wins rounds two and three

19.5 significant strikes at 60% accuracy in an average second round with 59 seconds of control, then 113 seconds of control in a third. Two thirds of this fight is his best territory.

Five decision wins and no need for a finish

Half his career wins are on the cards. He does not have to solve Jourdain's volume, only out-control it for two rounds — and the model's decision bucket agrees, at 28 against 16.

The Romero path is live

A flying knee at 3:55 of the second is the one knockdown in his logged record, and it came off exactly the kind of chaos a level change creates. Five career knockouts say the power is real.

The gameplan

1
Shoot in the first minute, not the tenth
Every logged first round says he waits. Twelve seconds of control and zero ground strikes across four opening rounds is the single most fixable number in his profile, and the fight probably turns on whether he fixes it.
2
Do not kickbox in Edmonton
2.88 significant strikes a minute at 42% accuracy against 7.32 at 49%. Extended pocket exchanges are a losing trade in every round, and the crowd scores the close ones.
3
Win ugly — fence rides, not scrambles
Control without chaos is the entire dog path. The moment a takedown becomes a scramble, he is fighting the one weapon he has never defended: 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.
4
Use the two inches
71" against 69", and a jab-and-level-change rhythm is the only way to make length pay. Standing still at range does not use reach, it just gives a volume striker a target.
5
Bank rounds two and three
19.5 strikes at 60% and 59 seconds of control in an average second, 113 seconds in a third. If he survives the opening five minutes even, the last ten are statistically his — and the model's largest single bucket is his decision at 28.

Danger Zone

How Louis Jourdain loses

The first takedown lands and never stops landing. He has no offensive wrestling at all, 66% takedown defence, and no measured answer to ten minutes on his back — the fight is lost on control minutes without a single dangerous moment.
He chases the home-crowd finish, overextends on an entry, and eats the Romero counter — a flying knee at 3:55 of the second is on Cuamba's record for a reason.
The Contender Series numbers turn out to be Contender Series numbers. 7.32 against a regional opponent becomes 4.50 against a UFC bantamweight, and the whole statistical case evaporates in the first exchange.

Danger Zone

How Timmy Cuamba loses

He starts the way he has started four times out of four — 7.8 strikes at 32% accuracy, twelve seconds of control — and loses the opening round in Edmonton to a man throwing seven a minute.
He shoots, the scramble opens, and it is May 2026 again: 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes finds the back and the rear-naked choke ends it in the second.
The takedowns land but do not hold, he cannot finish from top (zero career submissions), and he loses a 'wrestled but out-struck' decision to somebody landing three strikes for every one he takes.

The fight's central axis

The Volume Tax

Louis Jourdain lands 7.32 significant strikes per minute against a bantamweight average of 4.41; Timmy Cuamba lands 2.88. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly 110 strikes against 43, and the absorption ledger runs the same way — 2.44 taken against 3.72. Every upright minute is a minute Cuamba pays for.

3.00

Jourdain damage ratio vs Cuamba's 0.77 (division ~1.12)

The number that decides round one

Twelve Seconds

Across four logged Octagon first rounds, Cuamba averages twelve seconds of control, 7.8 significant strikes landed, 32% accuracy and zero ground offence. His gameplan requires early takedowns; his record contains none. In Edmonton, against a man throwing seven a minute, that is a round given away before the wrestling ever starts.

7.8

Cuamba's average first-round significant strikes, at 32% accuracy

Where the matchup edge lives

The Sopaj Echo

Cuamba's most recent fight ended with Benardo Sopaj on his back, rear-naked choke, 2:25 of the second. Jourdain's only measured fight ended with a rear-naked choke at 0:39 of the third. He attempts 1.4 submissions per fifteen minutes against a divisional average of 0.51; Cuamba has zero submission wins in fourteen professional fights and two submission losses.

1.40

Jourdain Sub/15 into a fighter with 0.00 and a fresh choke loss

The honest caveat

One Fight of Evidence

Everything above about Jourdain — the 7.32, the 2.44, the 3.00 damage ratio, the 1.41 knockdown average — comes from a single Contender Series bout lasting 10 minutes 39 seconds against Magno Dias. It is not Octagon data and it is not a sample. It is why a matchup the composites price at ten points is priced at six.

Both men peak at opposite ends

The Inverted Clock

Cuamba's output, accuracy and control all climb across a fight: 7.8 strikes and 12 seconds of control in the first, 19.5 and 59 in the second, 13.0 and 113 in the third. Jourdain's four documented finishes cluster at the ends of rounds. One man needs the fight to start; the other needs it to keep going.

The Five-Round Clock

Louis Jourdain danger windowTimmy Cuamba danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The free round

Cuamba's average opening round is 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy with twelve seconds of control and no ground offence. Jourdain throws 7.32 a minute with an Alberta crowd behind him. This is the cheapest five minutes on the card.

Critical Insight
The clock runs backwards for the underdog. Cuamba's measured strength is rounds two and three, and his measured weakness is the round that starts with an Edmonton crowd on its feet. If he gives away the first the way he has given away four of four, he needs to win both of the remaining rounds clearly to take a decision — and he has to do it without ever letting a scramble go long enough for 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes to find his neck.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Louis Jourdain lands 7.32 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.44; Timmy Cuamba lands 2.88 and absorbs 3.72. The bantamweight averages are 4.41 and 3.95 — one man is comfortably above the line and the other comfortably below it.

Cuamba's four logged Octagon first rounds average 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy with twelve seconds of control. His only path needs early takedowns and his record contains none — while Jourdain's 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes point straight at the rear-naked choke that beat him in May.

Model: Jourdain 56% / Cuamba 44%, conviction 5/10 — a reprice from an earlier Cuamba lean, held at five because every Jourdain number comes from one Contender Series fight and Cuamba's wrestling decision is still the largest single bucket on the page.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Jourdain KO/TKO — 22%Jourdain Submission — 18%Jourdain Decision — 16%Cuamba Decision — 28%Cuamba KO/TKO — 12%Cuamba Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Louis Jourdain gold · Timmy Cuamba orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The output gap

7.32 significant strikes a minute against 2.88, at 49% accuracy against 42%, with 2.44 absorbed against 3.72. In every branch where the fight is contested standing, Jourdain banks the round — which is why his combined finishing buckets reach 40 of 100.

Twelve seconds of first-round control

Cuamba's own record says his wrestling arrives late: 12 seconds of control in an average opening round, 59 in the second, 113 in the third. The model gives Jourdain the first round in most simulations for that reason alone.

The submission matchup

1.40 attempts per fifteen minutes against 0.00, into a fighter with zero career submission wins and two submission losses, the most recent in May 2026. Jourdain's 18-point submission bucket is larger than his decision bucket.

Sample regression

One Contender Series bout produced every Jourdain number on this page. The model discounts all of them; an undiscounted read of the composites would price this closer to 70-30, and that read would be irresponsible.

The wrestling decision

Cuamba's 28-point decision bucket is the single largest outcome in the simulation. Control minutes without scrambles beat volume on three-round cards more often than the striking numbers suggest — it is exactly how he beat Chang Ho Lee.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Wrestling Decision

Cuamba shoots early for once, sticks two takedowns a round and rides them out without ever giving up a scramble. Fifteen ugly minutes, no danger, and a card that reads 29-28 for the visitor — the Chang Ho Lee performance, transplanted to Edmonton.

Scripted outcomes for Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Louis Jourdain win probability

22%

16%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Four career knockouts, three of them landing at 4:51 or later in their round. Against a fighter absorbing 3.72 significant strikes a minute in front of an Edmonton crowd, accumulation is a genuine finishing path rather than a bonus.
Sixteen points, and the smallest of his three buckets. Out-pointing Cuamba means stopping the takedowns for fifteen minutes on 66% defence — Avliyohon Hamidov proved in 2021 that a card-banker can beat him.
Larger than his decision bucket, which is unusual and entirely matchup-driven: 1.4 attempts per fifteen minutes into a man with zero submission wins who was choked out at 2:25 of the second in May.

Timmy Cuamba win probability

12%

28%

KO/TKODECSUB

The Romero path — a flying knee at 3:55 of the second, off the chaos a level change creates. Five career knockouts and one logged knockdown say the power is real; 2.88 strikes a minute says he will not find it by volume.
His largest bucket and the single largest outcome on the page. Five decision wins, three full fifteen-minute Octagon fights, and control time that climbs to 113 seconds by the third — he does not need to solve the striking, only outlast it on the cards.
Four points, and generous. He has 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and zero submission wins in fourteen professional fights; these are scramble accidents, not a hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Louis

Timmy

29-28 Cuamba

The first round to volume, the last two to control minutes

The most likely card, and why the model's decision bucket favours the underdog 28 to 16

29-28 Jourdain

Two striking rounds banked, one wrestling round conceded

The competitive version, and common

30-27 Jourdain

Fifteen minutes of 7.32 against 2.88 with no takedown holding

Live if Cuamba starts the way he has started four times out of four

Model and price

Louis Jourdain

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 56%
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Timmy Cuamba

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 44%
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Louis Jourdain

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Timmy Cuamba

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Jourdain by submission is the standout if it comes back at plus money. It is worth 18 of his 56 win-shares — more than his decision bucket — and the reasoning is structural rather than stylistic: 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and a rear-naked choke on his only tape, against a fighter with zero career submission wins and two submission losses, the most recent of them a rear-naked choke at 2:25 of the second in May 2026. The counter-position is Cuamba by decision at 28 points, the largest single bucket on the page, which is the bet if the market overreacts to the Contender Series rate line. Cuamba by submission should be avoided at any price.

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean to the higher-output Canadian with the submission matchup and the home building — capped at five out of ten because his entire statistical case is one Contender Series fight, and because Cuamba's wrestling decision remains the largest single outcome in the simulation. Lean: Louis Jourdain.

What backs the lean

7.32 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.88, and 2.44 absorbed against 3.72 — a 3.00 damage ratio against 0.77.
1.40 submission attempts per fifteen minutes into a fighter with zero career submission wins and a rear-naked choke loss in May 2026.
Cuamba's four logged Octagon first rounds average 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy with twelve seconds of control.
Rogers Place, a Quebec fighter on Canadian soil, and a documented habit of finishing in the closing seconds of rounds.

What limits it

Every Jourdain figure on this page comes from a single 10:39 Contender Series bout — regression against UFC opposition is the base case, not a risk.
Cuamba owns the only functioning takedown offence in the fight (1.18 per fifteen minutes) against an opponent whose own reads 0.00.
Five Octagon fights against none, three of them going the full fifteen minutes, plus two inches of reach and 71% takedown defence.
The model's largest single bucket is Cuamba by decision at 28 — control minutes steal three-round prelims more often than striking rates suggest.

Final Assessment

The numbers on this page are lopsided and the model is not, and the distance between those two facts is the honest story of the fight. Louis Jourdain lands two and a half times what Timmy Cuamba lands, absorbs a third less, carries nearly three times the divisional submission rate, and fights in front of a home crowd. On paper it should be a rout. On evidence it is one Contender Series night against Magno Dias, 78 significant strikes over 10 minutes 39 seconds, and nothing else that a statistical record can see.

What makes the lean survive that caveat is the shape of Cuamba's own record rather than the size of Jourdain's. Four logged Octagon first rounds averaging 7.8 significant strikes at 32% accuracy with twelve seconds of control is not a slow start, it is a habit — and it is a habit that hands a volume striker the round the Edmonton crowd cares most about. Cuamba's plan requires early takedowns; eleven rounds of data say the takedowns arrive at minute ten, by which point his control climbs to 113 seconds and the cards may already be gone. Behind that sits the cleanest matchup line on the card: 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen minutes into a man who has never won by submission and was choked out three months ago.

The honest read: take the Mad Prince narrowly, expect the rounds to be close, and respect the wrestling tax every time Twilight changes levels. If Cuamba shoots inside the first minute and holds, the largest bucket in the simulation is his — an ugly 29-28 that no highlight reel will remember. If he waits the way he always has, the fight is decided in the five minutes he has spent his whole Octagon career giving away.

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