Twenty-six seconds settled nothing. On Saturday, September 19, Crypto.com Arena hosts the flyweight title rematch: champion Joshua Van (17-2), whose UFC 323 win ended on a 26-second arm injury, against former champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja (30-6) and the grappling tax that never got answered. Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy takes the five-round co-main. Model lean: Van 52–48. Live on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT.
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The 0:26 arm-injury stoppage at UFC 323 answered nothing: champion Joshua Van (17-2) runs it back against Alexandre Pantoja (30-6) and the grappling tax he never had to solve. Model lean: Van 52–48, with Tsarukyan 64–36 (editorial) in the five-round co-main.
BetOnline is our preferred reference when available. We show the selected source and implied probability; this is not a guarantee of the best price across all books. Check the capture date before treating an estimated edge as current.
Main event
Flyweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 13/13 · Analyses available: 13/13
Tactical key
Twenty-six seconds settled an arm injury, not a championship. Van has to keep this standing long enough for 8.43 strikes a minute to score; Pantoja has to turn 2.79 takedowns and 1.00 submissions per fifteen into attacking positions over five rounds. Neither moneyline is the play — the method markets are.
What limits this estimate
Joshua Van: Reach the second round on his feet. He lands 58.7 significant strikes in an average second round and 42.3 in a third, and 75% takedown defence is the tool that keeps the fight standing long enough for those numbers to arrive.
Alexandre Pantoja: Make it a wrestling match and make it long. 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 1.00 submission attempts, six Octagon chokes, and 152 seconds of average control in a fourth round nobody has ever taken Joshua Van into.
Reference quote: -132 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -2.8 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +113 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +2.8 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen are the repeatable route; Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and first-blitz power are the reversal. Over five rounds the cost of failed entries decides it. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan — the market at −288 is ahead of that line.
What limits this estimate
Arman Tsarukyan: Set up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.
Mauricio Ruffy: Keep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.
Reference quote: -288 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -7.5 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +238 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +7.5 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Pitbull cannot out-box 5.00 SLpM and three inches of reach; he has to make it dirty. Choi's six UFC wins are six knockouts. Model 52–48 Pitbull; the book has Choi −270. Pedigree versus power, and almost no UFC sample on the side we lean.
What limits this estimate
Patricio Pitbull: Make it dirty and make it long. Clinch entries, body work, takedown attempts against a 59% defence, and a scramble that turns into the submission he has hit roughly a dozen times in his career — because he cannot out-box a man with three inches and 5.00 strikes a minute.
Doo Ho Choi: Fight at length and let the arithmetic run. A jab into a 45% accuracy, a right hand on the entry, and an absorption rate of 4.61 that he only has to punish once. His two most likely finishing rounds are the second and third.
Reference quote: +224 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +22.3 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: -270 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -22.3 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Baraniewski is 3-0 UFC, all first-round TKOs at 11.35 SLpM — and 8.65 absorbed. Menifield is 38, in his hometown, with ten UFC wins and four KO losses inside ten minutes. Model 56–44 Baraniewski; −210 is a prospect premium on a one-round sample.
What limits this estimate
Iwo Baraniewski: The fourth first round. Eleven strikes a minute at 57% accuracy against a 51% defence, thrown at a 38-year-old who has been knocked out four times inside ten minutes — the shortest path on the page and the one he has already walked three times.
Alonzo Menifield: Ten more minutes. Menifield does not have to beat the swarm, he has to outlive it; his output rises every round, his knockdown rate falls, and his opponent has never fought a sixth minute in this promotion.
Reference quote: -210 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -9.2 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +177 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +9.2 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Jourdain out-lands Vera in every round on the historical record (5.36 vs 4.18 SLpM). Vera's case is the chin — one knockdown in 72 rounds — and 71% takedown defence into Jourdain's 46%. Model 55–45 Vera; BetOnline has Jourdain −233. The market is inverted.
What limits this estimate
Charles Jourdain: Fifteen minutes at distance. He lands 5.36 a minute to Vera's 4.18 and out-strikes him in all three rounds on the historical record — if the fight never breaks structure, the cards come to him.
Marlon Vera: One broken structure. A clinch, a scramble, a takedown into Jourdain's 46% defence — Vera's whole 55% rests on the fight becoming something other than a boxing match.
Reference quote: -233 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -22.4 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +195 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +22.4 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Gandra's 11.71 SLpM and two first-round UFC TKOs run into Diaz's 6.52 absorption and a 79-inch reach. Model 59–41 Gandra. No BetOnline line is posted — treat every rate as a direction, not a price.
What limits this estimate
Ryan Gandra: Close the distance inside the first five minutes. Both of his UFC wins ended in round one, his single fight records bout lasted 2:51, and 11.71 significant strikes a minute arriving at a man who absorbs 6.52 is a stoppage waiting on a referee.
Ozzy Diaz: Fifteen minutes at 79 inches. His output goes 14.5, 51, 64 across three rounds and 100% of it lands at range — every minute he keeps this a kickboxing match is a minute the fight becomes his.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
O'Neill throws 7.89 significant strikes a minute; Moura shoots 3.58 takedowns per fifteen with 139 seconds of first-round control. Keep it standing and the cards rout toward O'Neill. Bank two early mat rounds and Moura steals it. Model 54–46 O'Neill at −180 — closer than the favourite price.
What limits this estimate
Casey O'Neill: Keep it upright for eight of the fifteen minutes. At 7.89 significant strikes a minute against 2.57, every standing exchange is a rout on the scorecards, and her 70% takedown defence only has to hold often enough to make the mat minutes fewer than the standing ones.
Eduarda Moura: Two takedowns a round, early. Her control is 139 and 134 seconds in the first two rounds and 31 in the third, so the wrestling has to bank the fight before it becomes a kickboxing match she cannot win.
Reference quote: -180 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -7.9 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +153 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +7.9 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Shahbazyan's 1.08 knockdowns in round one against Ferreira's rising second-round output and 1.04 Sub/15. Survive five minutes and the curves cross; miss that window and Edmen ends it. Model 53–47 Ferreira as a plus-money dog at +133.
What limits this estimate
Edmen Shahbazyan: End it before the eighth minute. He lands 18.8 significant strikes in the first round with a 1.08 knockdown average, and four of his five UFC knockouts came inside round one. Everything after that is a fight he has historically lost.
Brunno Ferreira: Survive the opening five minutes and let the curves cross. His output rises into the second round while Shahbazyan's falls by 21%, and the neck is available every time a tired man shoots.
Reference quote: -156 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -11.7 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: +133 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +11.7 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Despaigne's length and 60% accuracy against Tuivasa's 44% striking defence. Model 57–43 Despaigne. BetOnline has him −650 off three Octagon fights. Tuivasa +482 is the widest moneyline gap on the card — and a knockdown rate that has not fired in his last five UFC bouts.
What limits this estimate
Tai Tuivasa: The first five minutes, in the clinch. He lands 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round with 31.8% of that offence in close, against a man who landed four and two strikes in his two full first rounds.
Robelis Despaigne: Keep it at 84 inches and let the clock work. His accuracy climbs to 73% by the third round against a shell that stops 42% of what arrives, and Tuivasa has not scored a knockdown since September 2022.
Reference quote: +482 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +26.5 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: -650 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -26.5 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Olympic wrestling and four first-round TKOs against 15.00 SApM and 0% published takedown defence. Model 68–32 Steveson. No BetOnline line. The swing is one heavyweight counter before the shot lands.
What limits this estimate
Gable Steveson: One level change. He has finished four of four inside round one and the Ellison blueprint — shot, top position, knees and punches — is already on UFC tape against a man who defends 42% of strikes and has twenty-three seconds of career control time.
Sean Sharaf: Five minutes of clean distance work and one clean counter. He lands 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round; if the first takedown fails and the shot he times is the right hand, the wrestling never happens.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Brito averages 288 seconds of control per three rounds; Chikadze averages 19. Stuff the shot and 59% striking defence plus length writes the cards. Land one entry a round and the kickboxer never starts. Model 54–46 Brito; −400 is a steep price on a 43% striking defence.
What limits this estimate
Giga Chikadze: Stuff the first shot and start kicking. Against a man who defends 43% of what is thrown at him, fifteen minutes of distance striking is both the decision path and the knockout path.
Joanderson Brito: Land one entry a round. Ninety seconds of control per round for three rounds is 288 seconds of a 900-second fight, and it is the difference between a submission finish and a card he wins without landing ten strikes.
Reference quote: +319 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: +23.0 pp
Freshness unverified
Reference quote: -400 (BetOnline)
Edge vs no-vig market: -23.0 pp
Freshness unverified
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tactical key
Yoo's 58% accuracy and 4.99 SApM against Aswell's rising volume and a chin that has never been stopped. Model 53–47 Yoo. No BetOnline line. Half a composite point separates them and the favourite's entire rate line is 5:49 long.
What limits this estimate
Michael Aswell Jr.: Make it long and make it ugly. His output rises every round and nobody in the UFC has come close to finishing him — if the fight is still standing at the ten-minute mark, the busiest man in the building is the one who has never been hurt.
JooSang Yoo: Keep it at the end of the two-inch reach advantage and keep hitting 58%. Every minute the fight stays at kicking range is a minute the cleaner striker banks, and the leg kicks make the third round Aswell's problem rather than his weapon.
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Reference quote: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —
Insufficient price data
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC 331 — the narrative, the card spotlights, where BetOnline misprices the Los Angeles card, and how the model reads a rematch that lasted 26 seconds.
The Story
UFC 331 is a numbered Los Angeles card built around unfinished business. Champion Joshua Van (17-2, 24 years old) brings 8.43 significant strikes per minute and 81% takedown defence into a rematch with Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (30-6, 36) — 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, six Octagon submissions, and a habit of winning ugly when rounds get deep. Van took the belt at UFC 323 by first-round TKO at 0:26, an arm-injury stoppage rather than a knockout sequence, so the rematch asks the only question that matters: changing of the guard, or medical outlier?
The model leans Van a thin 52–48, but BetOnline has moved to Van -132 and Pantoja +113 — the champion carries a few points of juice, not a free edge. The value sits further down the card. The five-round co-main puts Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) and 3.26 takedowns per fifteen against Mauricio Ruffy (14-2), who has never attempted one in the Octagon. Below it, Patricio Pitbull meets Doo Ho Choi after Moicano vs. Ortega was cancelled (Ortega cut in training), and the prelims carry the two widest model-versus-market gaps on the calendar.
“An arm gave out at 0:26 and a title changed hands. That is not an answer to anything — which is why the model has this at 52–48 and the largest single outcome in a hundred simulations belongs to the man who lost.”
Main Event — Flyweight Title
01Van vs. Pantoja 2
The 0:26 arm-injury stoppage at UFC 323 settled nothing. Champion Joshua Van (17-2) defends against Alexandre Pantoja (30-6), whose 25-in-100 submission path is the largest single outcome. Model 52–48 Van — neither moneyline is the play.
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Lightweight
02Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy
Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) shoots 3.26 takedowns per fifteen at a man who has never attempted one in the Octagon. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan; BetOnline −288 is ahead of that line. Goes the Distance is the cleaner price than the favourite.
Full breakdown
Main Card — Featherweight
03Pitbull vs. Choi
Patricio Pitbull (37-9) vs. Doo Ho Choi (17-4-1). Model 52–48 Pitbull; the book has Choi −270. Pedigree versus knockout power — and almost no UFC sample on the side we lean.
Full breakdown
Prelim Spotlight
04Jourdain vs. Vera & Tuivasa vs. Despaigne
The two widest model-versus-market gaps on the card. Vera at +195 has never been finished in twenty-six Octagon bouts; Tuivasa at +482 carries a 43% model read the book prices at 17.2%.
Full breakdown
Betting Desk
Original analyst scenarios and price notes. These editorial snapshots are not live offers; check the dated quotes and value status on the fight card before interpreting them.
Main Event — Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja
Model fair (decimal)
Joshua Van
1.92
52% win
Model fair (decimal)
Alexandre Pantoja
2.08
48% win
Market (BetOnline)
−132
Market (BetOnline)
+113
Projected outcome breakdown
How the fight unfolds
The 26-second ghost
Their first meeting ended at 0:26 on an arm injury, not a knockout sequence. It settled nothing, and both men know it — expect a far more careful opening than the result suggests.
Tactical lean: UnresolvedOutput against entries
Van lands 8.43 significant strikes a minute and defends 81% of takedowns; Pantoja shoots 2.79 per fifteen at 48% accuracy. Every failed entry is a round banked for the champion.
Tactical lean: Joshua VanNo longer Van's blind spot
Pantoja owns six measured championship rounds with 152 and 155 seconds of control. Van has now been there once — he stopped Tatsuro Taira at 1:32 of the fifth in May 2026, after absorbing more than ten minutes of ground control.
Tactical lean: NarrowingThe choke is the live path
A quarter of all simulations end with Pantoja submitting him. It is the single largest outcome for either man, and the reason the moneyline is not the market to play here.
Tactical lean: High varianceOriginal price notes
Capture dates are not recorded for these editorial comparisons. Differences below include the bookmaker margin and are expressed in percentage points, not expected return or confidence.
Tai Tuivasa
Model
43.0%
Implied
17.2%
Difference
+25.8 pp
The market has him near-dead at 17.2%. Despaigne is 1-2 in the Octagon with two decision losses — thin evidence for a price this heavy.
Marlon Vera
Model
55.0%
Implied
33.9%
Difference
+21.1 pp
Four straight defeats, not one of them a stoppage. Jourdain at −233 is a steep price on a man Vera can drag into deep water.
Giga Chikadze
Model
46.0%
Implied
23.9%
Difference
+22.1 pp
Brito's 43% striking defence is the softest surface on the card, and Chikadze still ends fights at range.
Goes the Distance — Yes (Tsarukyan vs Ruffy)
Model
46.0%
Implied
28.6%
Difference
+17.4 pp
Five rounds, 34% editorial share for Tsarukyan by points, and Ruffy's 87% takedown defence — the co-main's cleanest prop edge at BetOnline.
Arman Tsarukyan by Points
Model
34.0%
Implied
25.0%
Difference
+9.0 pp
Largest single editorial outcome bucket in the co-main; market still prices decision equity cheaply.
Patricio Pitbull
Model
52.0%
Implied
30.9%
Difference
+21.1 pp
The model reads this a coin flip; the book has Choi a clear favourite.
Brunno Ferreira
Model
53.0%
Implied
42.9%
Difference
+10.1 pp
A dog price on the side the model actually favours, with both finish paths intact.
Alonzo Menifield
Model
44.0%
Implied
36.1%
Difference
+7.9 pp
Coming off a first-round knockout in Macau, against an undefeated prospect the market backs on faith.
Eduarda Moura
Model
46.0%
Implied
39.5%
Difference
+6.5 pp
Divisional-best takedown volume against O'Neill's 70% takedown defence — closer than the line reads.
Original favorite assessments
These notes compare the model with the price recorded in the original analysis. They do not establish value at today's price.
Robelis Despaigne
Three Octagon bouts and two decision losses do not support 86.7%.
Arman Tsarukyan
Editorial 64% vs 74.2% implied — favourite is priced above the handicapping line.
Charles Jourdain
The model favours Vera outright; the market has this one backwards.
Joanderson Brito
Right side, wrong price — 80.0% implied against a 54% read.
Doo Ho Choi
Priced as the favourite in a fight the model scores the other way.
Edmen Shahbazyan
Coming off a decision loss to Brendan Allen; the line has not caught up.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 is a numbered UFC event on Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The main event is a UFC Flyweight Championship rematch between champion Joshua Van (17-2, age 24) and former champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja (30-6, age 36). Van won the first meeting at UFC 323 by first-round TKO at 0:26 — an arm-injury stoppage, not a prolonged beatdown — so the rematch asks whether 8.86 significant strikes per minute and 81% takedown defense actually solved Pantoja's 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.0 submissions per 15 over championship distance. The five-round co-main is Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (14-2) at lightweight. MMA Analytics leans Van a thin 52–48 and Tsarukyan 64–36 (editorial). The card streams on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT local).
UFC 331 streams live from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California on Saturday, September 19, 2026, with the main card beginning at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Because this is a numbered event from the West Coast, the in-arena main event is a mid-afternoon local start: 2:00 PM PT. Viewers in the United Kingdom and Ireland should expect a 10:00 PM BST window, Central Europe tunes in at 11:00 PM CET, and Abu Dhabi runs at 1:00 AM on Sunday. Prelims begin roughly two hours before the main card, around 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT, also on Paramount+. All listed times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes.
The flyweight title main event features Joshua Van (17-2) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (30-6) in a championship rematch, with Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (14-2) in the five-round lightweight co-main. The main card also features Patricio Pitbull (37-9) vs. Doo Ho Choi (17-4-1) at featherweight, and unbeaten Iwo Baraniewski (9-0) vs. Alonzo Menifield (18-6-1) at light heavyweight. Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega was cancelled (Ortega cut in training). Prelims include Charles Jourdain vs. Marlon Vera, Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz, Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura, Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira, Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne, Olympic wrestler Gable Steveson (4-0) vs. Sean Sharaf (4-2), Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito, and Michael Aswell Jr. vs. JooSang Yoo.
MMA Analytics currently favors Joshua Van at approximately 52% win probability versus Alexandre Pantoja at 48% in the UFC 331 flyweight title rematch at Crypto.com Arena — a genuine coin-flip leaning on youth and volume. Van's case is output and posture: 8.86 significant strikes per minute behind 81% takedown defense. Pantoja's case is the tax: 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.0 submissions per 15, with a résumé of winning ugly when rounds get deep — and because the first meeting ended in 26 seconds on an arm injury, nothing about the grappling question was actually answered over championship distance. On the same Los Angeles card, Arman Tsarukyan faces Mauricio Ruffy over five rounds, with an editorial estimate of 64% Tsarukyan and 36% Ruffy. Full fight pages compare these model and editorial estimates to BetOnline odds across UFC 331.
Yes — the UFC 331 main event and co-main are official. Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja headlines in a rematch for the UFC Flyweight Championship, and Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy serves as the five-round lightweight co-main event at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Moicano vs. Ortega was cancelled (Ortega cut in training). Twelve fights remain and stream on Paramount+; the bout order above reflects the official billing.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van vs Pantoja🟢 | Joshua VanModel favorite | 52% | -132 (BetOnline)56.9% implied | Alexandre Pantoja | 48% | +113 (BetOnline)46.9% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapJoshua Van52%56.9%-4.9 ppAlexandre Pantoja48%46.9%+1.1 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Joshua Van. Alexandre Pantoja offers the positive price gap, despite not being our outright pick. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Tsarukyan vs Ruffy🟢 | Arman TsarukyanAnalyst favorite | 64% | -288 (BetOnline)74.2% implied | Mauricio Ruffy | 36% | +238 (BetOnline)29.6% implied | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapArman Tsarukyan64%74.2%-10.2 ppMauricio Ruffy36%29.6%+6.4 pp Our read: We favor Arman Tsarukyan. Mauricio Ruffy offers the positive price gap, despite not being our outright pick. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| Pitbull vs Choi🟡 | Patricio PitbullModel favorite | 52% | +224 (BetOnline)30.9% implied | Doo Ho Choi | 48% | -270 (BetOnline)73.0% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapPatricio Pitbull52%30.9%+21.1 ppDoo Ho Choi48%73.0%-25.0 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Patricio Pitbull. The quoted price also offers a positive gap against our estimate. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Baraniewski vs Menifield🟡 | Iwo BaraniewskiModel favorite | 56% | -210 (BetOnline)67.7% implied | Alonzo Menifield | 44% | +177 (BetOnline)36.1% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapIwo Baraniewski56%67.7%-11.7 ppAlonzo Menifield44%36.1%+7.9 pp Our read: We favor Iwo Baraniewski. Alonzo Menifield offers the positive price gap, despite not being our outright pick. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Jourdain vs Vera🟢 | Charles Jourdain | 45% | -233 (BetOnline)70.0% implied | Marlon VeraModel favorite | 55% | +195 (BetOnline)33.9% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapCharles Jourdain45%70.0%-25.0 ppMarlon Vera55%33.9%+21.1 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Marlon Vera. The quoted price also offers a positive gap against our estimate. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Gandra vs Diaz🔴 | Ryan GandraModel favorite | 59% | N/A— | Ozzy Diaz | 41% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapRyan Gandra59%——Ozzy Diaz41%—— Our read: We favor Ryan Gandra. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| O'Neill vs Moura🟢 | Casey O'NeillModel favorite | 54% | -180 (BetOnline)64.3% implied | Eduarda Moura | 46% | +153 (BetOnline)39.5% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapCasey O'Neill54%64.3%-10.3 ppEduarda Moura46%39.5%+6.5 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Casey O'Neill. Eduarda Moura offers the positive price gap, despite not being our outright pick. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Shahbazyan vs Ferreira🟢 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 47% | -156 (BetOnline)60.9% implied | Brunno FerreiraModel favorite | 53% | +133 (BetOnline)42.9% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapEdmen Shahbazyan47%60.9%-13.9 ppBrunno Ferreira53%42.9%+10.1 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Brunno Ferreira. The quoted price also offers a positive gap against our estimate. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Tuivasa vs Despaigne🟡 | Tai Tuivasa | 43% | +482 (BetOnline)17.2% implied | Robelis DespaigneModel favorite | 57% | -650 (BetOnline)86.7% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapTai Tuivasa43%17.2%+25.8 ppRobelis Despaigne57%86.7%-29.7 pp Our read: We favor Robelis Despaigne. Tai Tuivasa offers the positive price gap, despite not being our outright pick. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Steveson vs Sharaf🔴 | Gable StevesonModel favorite | 68% | N/A— | Sean Sharaf | 32% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapGable Steveson68%——Sean Sharaf32%—— Our read: We favor Gable Steveson. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Chikadze vs Brito🟢 | Giga Chikadze | 46% | +319 (BetOnline)23.9% implied | Joanderson BritoModel favorite | 54% | -400 (BetOnline)80.0% implied | Win probabilityModelMarketGapGiga Chikadze46%23.9%+22.1 ppJoanderson Brito54%80.0%-26.0 pp Our read: We narrowly lean Joanderson Brito. Giga Chikadze offers the positive price gap, despite not being our outright pick. Quote dates unverified · recheck prices |
| Jr. vs Yoo🔴 | Michael Aswell Jr. | 47% | N/A— | JooSang YooModel favorite | 53% | N/A— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapMichael Aswell Jr.47%——JooSang Yoo53%—— Our read: We narrowly lean JooSang Yoo. A market price is needed to assess value. |
