Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Charles Jourdain — Bantamweight fighter

Charles Jourdain

“Air”
18W8L1D
Volume Pocket Boxer
VS
Marlon Vera — Bantamweight fighter

Marlon Vera

“Chito”
23W12L1D
Pressure Finisher

One knockdown absorbed in 72 rounds against 5.36 strikes a minute

BantamweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Jourdain out-lands Vera in every round on the historical record (5.36 vs 4.18 SLpM). Vera's case is the chin — one knockdown in 72 rounds — and 71% takedown defence into Jourdain's 46%. Model 55–45 Vera; BetOnline has Jourdain −233. The market is inverted.

Paths that change the fight

  • Charles JourdainFifteen minutes at distance. He lands 5.36 a minute to Vera's 4.18 and out-strikes him in all three rounds on the historical record — if the fight never breaks structure, the cards come to him.
  • Marlon VeraOne broken structure. A clinch, a scramble, a takedown into Jourdain's 46% defence — Vera's whole 55% rests on the fight becoming something other than a boxing match.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • Jourdain out-lands him in all three rounds and ranks 13th of 79 in output to Vera's 42nd.
  • Vera has lost his last three logged bouts, all on the cards, all to men who simply out-worked him.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Charles Jourdain

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
45%
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Reference quote-233 (BetOnline)

Marlon Vera

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
55%
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Reference quote+195 (BetOnline)
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two long Octagon careers that never crossed until now. Charles Jourdain lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute — 13th of 79 active bantamweights — at 49% accuracy behind 56% striking defence, and the round-by-round record has him out-landing Marlon Vera in all three rounds: 18.8 to 13.7, 27.2 to 21.0, 33.7 to 26.7. Vera answers with the most durable body in the division: one knockdown absorbed in 72 UFC rounds, thirteen dealt, and 71% takedown defence against Jourdain's 46%. The model makes it Vera 55 / Jourdain 45.

Charles Jourdain
Attribute
Marlon Vera
30
Age
33
5'9"+1" Jourdain
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+1" Vera70"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Switch, orthodox-leaning
Stance
Orthodox
Tristar / Québec circuit
Team
Team 5050, Guayaquil
May 18, 2019
Octagon Debut
Nov 15, 2014
Volume pocket boxing
Fighting Style
Pressure attrition, late finishes

An inch of height for Jourdain, an inch of reach for Vera, and almost nothing else separating them physically. The real gap is mileage: Vera debuted in the Octagon in November 2014 and has 72 logged UFC rounds behind him; Jourdain debuted in May 2019 and has 39. Neither man's leg reach is published, which matters here because 38.3% of Vera's first-round strikes go to the legs — the single highest target share in either fighter's profile. Both men fight at bantamweight now; Jourdain spent most of his UFC run at featherweight and dropped down in 2023.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the format Jourdain wants and the format that costs Vera his best asset. Vera has fought four championship rounds and three fifth rounds in the Octagon, and his knockdown rate in those fourth rounds is 0.75 — four times his three-round average. In a fifteen-minute fight that number never gets used. What travels is his chin: one knockdown absorbed in 72 rounds while eating 5.34 significant strikes a minute.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Charles Jourdain fighting in the Octagon

Charles Jourdain

Pro Record
18-8-1
UFC Record
9-7-1 across seventeen bouts since 2019
Streak
Three straight wins — Kyler Phillips on the cards at UFC Winnipeg (Apr 2026), Davey Grant submitted in 3:05, Victor Henry in the second
Finish Rate
6 of 8 UFC wins inside the distance — four submissions, two TKOs
Avg Fight Time
11:18
Chin · AverageSOS · Mid-tier UFCVolume pocket boxer

Seven years and sixteen Octagon fights of near-misses. He arrived as a featherweight in May 2019 and spent five years within a round of a breakthrough — split decisions against Andre Fili, Josh Culibao and Sean Woodson, a majority decision against Shane Burgos — while the finishes he did get came in bunches: Ricardo Ramos in 3:12, Lando Vannata in 2:32, Doo Ho Choi in the second. The drop to bantamweight in 2023 has been the best stretch of his career, and it has quietly rewritten what he is. Six of his eight UFC wins are finishes and four of them are submissions, which is not the profile of the pure kickboxer the label suggests.

Marlon Vera landing a head kick in the Octagon

Marlon Vera

Pro Record
23-12-1
UFC Record
15-11 across twenty-six bouts since 2014
Streak
Four straight defeats — Sean O'Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, Aiemann Zahabi and David Martinez (UD 29-28 ×3, Mexico City, Feb 2026)
Finish Rate
11 of 15 UFC wins inside the distance — seven TKOs, four submissions
Avg Fight Time
13:33
Chin · IronSOS · Championship-adjacentPressure finisher

Twenty-six Octagon fights, a title shot, and the most-tested chin at 135lbs. He started 2-3 in the UFC and then went on the run that defined him — Frankie Saenz in 84 seconds, Sean O'Malley in the first, Frankie Edgar with a head kick, Rob Font over five rounds, Dominick Cruz in the fourth. The title fight against O'Malley in March 2024 was the ceiling; since then he is 0-4, dropping decisions to O'Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, Aiemann Zahabi and David Martinez, all on the cards, none inside the distance — the Martinez fight a 29-28 sweep in front of a home Mexico City crowd in February 2026. What has not changed in eleven years is the durability: one knockdown absorbed in 72 rounds.

Charles Jourdain
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Marlon Vera
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Charles Jourdainsignature weapons

Front Choke / Guillotine SeriesRicardo Ramos (R1, 3:12), Lando Vannata (R1, 2:32), Victor Henry (R2, 3:43), Davey Grant (R1, 3:05) — three of the four inside the opening round
×4
Late-Round Volume TKOMarcelo Rojo at 4:31 of R3 and Doo Ho Choi at 4:32 of R2 — both after his output had climbed for two rounds
×2

Marlon Verasignature weapons

Accumulation FinishFive of his seven UFC knockouts landed after the ten-minute mark — Brad Pickett (R3), Frankie Edgar (R3 head kick), Andre Ewell (R3), Dominick Cruz (R4)
×7
Scramble SubmissionRoman Salazar, Guido Cannetti, Brian Kelleher and Nohelin Hernandez — all between 2016 and July 2019, none since
×4

Charles Jourdain

W
Kyler Phillips
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC Winnipeg — Apr 18, 2026
W
Davey Grant
Submission

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (3:05)
UFC FN: De Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025
W
Victor Henry
Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (3:43)
UFC FN: Moreno vs. Albazi — Nov 2, 2024
L
Jean Silva
KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (1:22)
UFC 303 — Jun 29, 2024
L
Sean Woodson
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC 297 — Jan 20, 2024
Pattern

Three wins in his last five by submission and a fourth on the cards, which is the least-advertised fact on this page. Victor Henry in the second, Davey Grant in 3:05, and before them Ricardo Ramos in 3:12 — a fighter billed as a volume boxer whose recent finishing has come off the neck — then fifteen hard minutes to out-point Kyler Phillips at home in Winnipeg in April 2026. The two defeats are instructive in opposite directions: Sean Woodson out-pointed him on a split card, and Jean Silva took him out in 82 seconds, the only knockout loss of his UFC run.

Marlon Vera

L
David Martinez
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Feb 28, 2026
L
Aiemann Zahabi
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: De Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025
L
Deiveson Figueiredo
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC FN: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov — Aug 3, 2024
L
Sean O'Malley
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5
UFC 299 — Mar 9, 2024 (title)
W
Pedro Munhoz
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC 292 — Aug 19, 2023
Pattern

Four straight defeats, and not one of them a stoppage. O'Malley over five rounds for the title, Figueiredo over three, Zahabi on a split card, David Martinez on a 29-28 sweep — Vera has lost twenty-five minutes at a time without ever being hurt, which is exactly what his one-knockdown-in-72-rounds line describes. The wider concern is what those cards had in common: all three opponents out-worked him. He has not finished anyone since he knocked out Dominick Cruz in August 2022, and his last submission was Nohelin Hernandez in July 2019.

Charles Jourdain

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Marlon Vera

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both donuts are scoped to UFC wins only — Jourdain's eight and Vera's fifteen — because the regional method breakdowns are not fully logged and a fifteen-fight Ecuadorian prospect run should not be mixed with an Octagon sample. Scoped that way, the story the analysis tells inverts. Vera's career line is 8 KO / 10 Sub / 5 Dec, but inside the UFC he is 7 KO / 4 Sub / 4 Dec: most of the submission identity is pre-2019, and his last Octagon submission was Nohelin Hernandez in July 2019. Jourdain, meanwhile, has four UFC submissions in eight wins — the same number as Vera, in seven fewer victories.

Common Opponents

OpponentCharlesMarlon
Davey GrantW· SUB R1 (3:05, Oct 2025)W· UD3 (Jun 2021) · L · UD3 (Feb 2016)
The cleanest shared data point on the card: Jourdain needed 3:05 to submit a man Vera needed fifteen minutes to out-point, and lost to five years before that
Andre EwellW· UD3 (Dec 2021)W· TKO R3 (3:17, Oct 2019)
Both won, in the two shapes this fight can take — Jourdain on the cards over fifteen minutes, Vera by accumulation in the third
Same card, Oct 18 2025W· SUB R1 over Davey GrantL· SD3 to Aiemann Zahabi
Their most recent logged bouts came on the same night at UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen — Jourdain finished in the first, Vera lost a twenty-five-minute-adjacent split
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Charles
0
Marlon

Jourdain owns three of the four inputs: 5.36 landed per minute against 4.18, 56% defence against 50%, 4.11 absorbed against 5.34. Accuracy edges to Jourdain at 49% against 47%. On rate alone this is the cleaner striker.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Charles
0
Marlon

Vera reverses it: 71% takedown defence against 46%, 39% takedown accuracy against 21%. The submission column is closer than the label suggests — 0.80 per fifteen minutes against 0.60, 19th and 24th of 79 — and both men have exactly four UFC submissions.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Charles
0
Marlon

Five points, and they come entirely from the mat. In a fight where 79% of Jourdain's career strikes and 79% of Vera's land standing, that is the narrowest kind of edge to be leaning on.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Charles
0
Marlon

Both are heavily back-loaded. Jourdain goes 18.8 to 33.7 significant strikes from the first round to the third (179%); Vera goes 13.7 to 26.7 (195%). Vera's average fight lasts 13:33 to Jourdain's 11:18 and he owns seven championship rounds, none of which this bout will reach.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Charles
0.0
Marlon

Three and a half composite points, matching the 55-45 model line almost exactly. This is the closest matchup on the UFC 331 prelims by composite spread.

MetricCharlesMarlon
Avg Fight Time11:1813:33
Pace TierHigh volume — 5.36 SLpM (13th/79)Below average — 4.18 SLpM (42nd/79)
R3/R1 Output179% (33.7 vs 18.8 sig)195% (26.7 vs 13.7 sig)
Slow Start %Moderate — 18.8 sig in R1 over 16 roundsPronounced — 13.7 sig in R1 over 25 rounds
Champ RoundsNone loggedR4: 21.8 sig, 0.75 KD (4 rds) · R5: 22.7 sig, 0.00 KD (3 rds)

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Pocket Boxer 45%55% Pressure Finisher

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 55-45 line is the editorial assessment's own read, confirmed on its August 6 verification pass, and it rests on takedown defence, finishing résumé and durability rather than on any matchup base rate.

Charles JourdainMarlon Vera

Bantamweight

· 79 fighters
StatCharlesCharles rankDiv avgMarlon rankMarlon
SLpM5.36
13/79
4.41
42/79
4.18
Str Acc49%
29/79
47.2%
35/79
47%
Str Def56%
32/79
54.2%
55/79
50%
SApM4.11
55/79
3.95
69/79
5.34
KD Avg0.58
18/79
0.54
18/79
0.58
Damage Ratio1.30—~1.12—0.78
KD Absorbed4 in 39 rounds———1 in 72 rounds
TD/150.38
61/79
1.50
59/79
0.47
TD Def46%
63/79
67.5%
36/79
71%
TD Acc21%
59/79
32.9%
29/79
39%
Sub/150.60
25/79
0.51
19/79
0.80
Avg Fight Time11:18———13:33
Statistical Verdict
The table splits along one seam. Jourdain is the better striker on every measurable — 13th in output, 29th in accuracy, 29th in defence, and he absorbs a full 1.12 fewer significant strikes per minute. Vera is the better grappler on every measurable — 34th in takedown defence against Jourdain's 62nd, 29th in takedown accuracy against 59th. Neither man wrestles: 0.38 and 0.47 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a divisional average of 1.50 puts them 62nd and 59th of 79. The column that decides most fights is the one nobody ranks — Vera has been knocked down once in 72 Octagon rounds.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Charles Jourdain

  • He out-lands Vera in all three rounds and the gap never closes: 18.8 to 13.7, 27.2 to 21.0, 33.7 to 26.7. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly twenty-two extra significant strikes.
  • His output climbs 79% from the first round to the third while his accuracy holds between 47% and 52% — this is a man who wins the second half of fights on volume, not on a late surge in efficiency.
  • The third round is where his shape changes: clinch share jumps from 11.9% to 25.8% and control time more than doubles to 64 seconds. His late offence is fought closer than his early offence.
  • Head share rises every round — 47.5%, 53.3%, 60.8% — off a body-heavy opening round (31.6% to the body, the highest body share on this page).

Marlon Vera

  • The most distinctive round in either profile is his first: 38.3% of his opening-round strikes go to the legs, tied exactly with his head share. He opens by chopping, not by hunting.
  • Output nearly doubles by the third — 13.7 to 26.7 — and his knockdown rate follows it: 0.08 in the first, 0.18 in the second, 0.22 in the third. The danger is genuinely back-loaded.
  • 77-82% of his strikes land at distance in every round. Ground share peaks at 13.5% in the third, which is where the four scramble submissions on his record came from.
  • Championship-round data exists (four fourth rounds, three fifths) and is deliberately not shown above — this is a three-round bout. The R4 knockdown rate of 0.75 is in the pace strip instead.
Critical Insight
The round-by-round table contradicts the easy version of this matchup. Jourdain is not a fast starter being hunted by a closer — he is ahead on output in every round and both men accelerate at almost the same rate. What separates them is that Vera's acceleration comes with knockdowns (0.08 to 0.22 across the rounds) while Jourdain's comes with clinch work and control time. Jourdain wins the volume; Vera wins the moments inside it.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Charles

Head
54%
Body
28%
Legs
18%

Marlon

Head
53%
Body
22%
Legs
25%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

CharlesMarlon
74%Distance79%
18%Clinch10%
8%Ground11%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceCharles owns it

5.36 SLpM (13th) against 4.18 (42nd), 56% defence against 50%, and a higher average in all three rounds

Pocket / ExchangesMarlon owns it

Identical 0.58 knockdown averages, but Vera has absorbed one knockdown in 72 rounds to Jourdain's four in 39

ClinchCharles owns it

Jourdain lands 18% of career strikes in the clinch to Vera's 10%, rising to 25.8% in the third — the data disagrees with the dirty-boxing narrative

GroundMarlon owns it

71% takedown defence against 46%, 39% accuracy against 21% — though both attempt fewer takedowns than 58 of the 79 men in the division

Path to Victory

Charles Jourdain

Fifteen minutes at distance. He lands 5.36 a minute to Vera's 4.18 and out-strikes him in all three rounds on the historical record — if the fight never breaks structure, the cards come to him.

Why they win
01
He out-lands Vera in every round

18.8 to 13.7 in the first, 27.2 to 21.0 in the second, 33.7 to 26.7 in the third — a 22-strike edge over fifteen minutes drawn from 39 and 72 logged rounds respectively.

02
Cleaner on both sides of the exchange

56% striking defence against 50%, 4.11 absorbed per minute against 5.34. His damage ratio is 1.29; Vera's is 0.79 — the Ecuadorian absorbs more than he lands.

03
Three years younger and fresher

30 against 33, with 39 Octagon rounds against 72. Vera has fought twenty-five UFC fights including a five-round title bout; Jourdain has never been past three.

04
The submission edge is not Vera's

Four UFC submissions each, but Jourdain's four came in eight wins and his most recent was October 2025. Vera's most recent was July 2019.

05
Three rounds erases Vera's best asset

Vera's fourth-round knockdown rate is 0.75, four times his three-round average. In a fifteen-minute fight that page of his record stays closed.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Win the first round outright

    Vera lands 13.7 significant strikes in his opening round across 25 samples and drops 0.08 opponents. It is the cheapest round on the card and Jourdain averages 18.8 in it.

  2. 2
    Body first, head later

    31.6% of his own first-round output goes to the body — the highest share in either profile. Against a man who has never been knocked down but has been out-worked four straight times, that is the honest attack.

  3. 3
    Refuse the clinch in the third

    His clinch share more than doubles to 25.8% in the third round. Against 71% takedown defence and four career scramble submissions, that is the one habit that costs him this fight.

  4. 4
    Check the calf kicks early

    38.3% of Vera's first-round strikes go to the legs. Fifteen minutes of unanswered chopping turns a volume advantage into a mobility problem by the third.

  5. 5
    Do not shoot

    0.38 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 21% accuracy, into 71% defence. Every failed entry is a scramble, and the scramble is the only place he loses.

Path to Victory

Marlon Vera

One broken structure. A clinch, a scramble, a takedown into Jourdain's 46% defence — Vera's whole 55% rests on the fight becoming something other than a boxing match.

Why they win
01
One knockdown absorbed in 72 rounds

Thirteen dealt, one taken, across eleven years and twenty-five Octagon fights — while eating 5.34 significant strikes a minute. There is no durability argument against him.

02
71% takedown defence into 47%

Jourdain cannot reliably put him down, and Vera lands 39% of his own attempts against Jourdain's 21%. The mat is a one-way door.

03
The knockdown curve rises with the fight

0.08 knockdowns per first round, 0.18 in the second, 0.22 in the third. Every minute Jourdain spends banking volume is a minute closer to Vera's window.

04
Eleven finishes in fifteen UFC wins

Seven TKOs and four submissions, and five of the seven knockouts came after the ten-minute mark — Pickett, Edgar, Ewell and Cruz all fell late.

05
He has beaten this level repeatedly

Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Sean O'Malley. Jourdain's best Octagon win is Doo Ho Choi or Davey Grant.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Start faster than 13.7

    His opening-round output is 42nd-percentile at best and he has now lost three decisions in a row. Giving Jourdain the first round in a three-round fight is arithmetic he cannot afford.

  2. 2
    Chop the lead leg

    38.3% leg share in the first round is his signature and it is the one attack that compounds. Jourdain's mobility is how he lands 33.7 strikes in a third round.

  3. 3
    Chain clinch to trip

    39% takedown accuracy against 21% defence. He does not need volume of attempts — one landed entry into a 47% defender changes the round.

  4. 4
    Hunt the neck when Jourdain sprawls

    Jourdain's ground share peaks at 10.7% and his takedown defence is 62nd of 79. The four submissions on Vera's record all came from exactly this position.

  5. 5
    Make the third round ugly

    His knockdown rate triples from the first round to the third and 13.5% of his third-round offence is ground strikes. Every path he has opens after the ten-minute mark.

Danger Zone

How Charles Jourdain loses

  • He wins two rounds on volume, gets caught in a third-round scramble and loses to the one submission Vera has not thrown since 2019.

  • The 46% takedown defence gets tested four times and holds twice — two rounds of control time is enough to flip the cards even with a striking deficit.

  • Jean Silva stopped him in 82 seconds in June 2024. It is the only knockout defeat of his UFC run, and Vera deals 13 knockdowns per 72 rounds.

Danger Zone

How Marlon Vera loses

  • A fourth straight loss on the cards, exactly like the last three: out-worked for fifteen minutes by a faster man and never hurt once.

  • His 13.7-strike first round hands Jourdain a free round, and against a 5.36-per-minute opponent he never claws it back inside three.

  • The takedown he needs never lands — he attempts 0.47 per fifteen minutes, 59th of 79, which is not a rate you build a gameplan on.

The number that caps Jourdain's ceiling

One Knockdown in Seventy-Two Rounds

Marlon Vera has been knocked down once in 72 logged UFC rounds while absorbing 5.34 significant strikes per minute — 69th of 79 bantamweights in absorption and still functionally unbreakable. Charles Jourdain has taken four knockdowns in 39 rounds. The volume advantage is real; the payoff it usually buys is not available here.

1
knockdowns Vera has absorbed in 72 UFC rounds
The case for the underdog

He Out-Lands Him in Every Round

18.8 to 13.7, 27.2 to 21.0, 33.7 to 26.7. There is no round in the historical record where Vera's average output exceeds Jourdain's, and the gap is widest exactly where the analysis expects Vera to take over — the third. Jourdain's 5.36 SLpM ranks 13th of 79; Vera's 4.18 ranks 42nd.

+22
Jourdain's projected significant-strike edge over three rounds
A correction to the framing

The Submission Story Runs Backwards

The analysis leans on Vera's ten career submissions. Inside the Octagon he has four, all between 2016 and July 2019, and none in the eleven fights since. Charles Jourdain also has four UFC submissions — in eight wins rather than fifteen — including three in the last three years and Davey Grant in 3:05 last October. Vera's Sub/15 edge is 0.80 to 0.60, ranks 19th and 24th of 79.

Why the grappling gap is narrower than it reads

Neither Man Wrestles

Jourdain attempts 0.38 takedowns per fifteen minutes and Vera 0.47, against a bantamweight average of 1.50. That is 62nd and 59th of 79. Vera's 71% takedown defence is a real edge over Jourdain's 46%, but it is defensive: it stops something Jourdain barely tries, while Vera's own 39% accuracy is applied less than once per fight.

0.47
Vera takedowns per 15 min — 59th of 79
Where the fight actually resolves

The Third Round Belongs to Both of Them

Jourdain's output peaks at 33.7 strikes in the third with 64 seconds of control and a 25.8% clinch share. Vera's knockdown rate peaks at 0.22 in the third with a 13.5% ground share. Both men are at their most dangerous in the same five minutes, for opposite reasons, and this fight has no fourth.

The Five-Round Clock

Charles Jourdain danger windowMarlon Vera danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The free round

Vera averages 13.7 significant strikes and 0.08 knockdowns in his opening round across 25 samples — the quietest first round on the prelims. Jourdain averages 18.8 with 31.6% of it to the body.

Critical Insight
The clock runs in Jourdain's favour on points and Vera's on danger, and both curves steepen together. Jourdain banks the first round almost for free — Vera's opening-round output is the weakest number either man carries — but every minute after that raises Vera's knockdown rate while Jourdain drifts closer, into clinch and control positions that are exactly where a 46% takedown defence gets found out.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Charles Jourdain out-lands Marlon Vera in all three rounds on the historical record — 18.8 to 13.7, 27.2 to 21.0, 33.7 to 26.7 — and ranks 13th of 79 bantamweights in output to Vera's 42nd.

2

Marlon Vera has been knocked down once in 72 UFC rounds while absorbing 5.34 significant strikes a minute, and defends 71% of takedowns against Jourdain's 46%. Volume wins him rounds; it does not hurt him.

3

Model: Vera 55% / Jourdain 45%, conviction 5/10 — the closest composite spread on the UFC 331 prelims, with Vera's 18-point submission bucket the single most contestable number on the page.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Jourdain Decision — 27%Jourdain KO/TKO — 14%Jourdain Submission — 4%Vera Decision — 21%Vera Submission — 18%Vera KO/TKO — 16%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Charles Jourdain gold · Marlon Vera orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The durability asymmetry

One knockdown absorbed in 72 rounds against four in 39. Jourdain's volume edge is worth 27 decision points but only 14 knockout points, because the man in front of him does not fall down.

Takedown defence at 71%

Vera's submission bucket is 18 — the second-largest on the page — and it is built entirely on Jourdain's 46% takedown defence, 62nd of 79. It is also the bucket the fight log argues against: Vera has not submitted anyone since July 2019.

The volume gap is real and it is small

5.36 against 4.18 is roughly twenty-two strikes over fifteen minutes. Enough to win rounds, not enough to hurt a man who eats 5.34 a minute for a living.

Three rounds, not five

Vera's fourth-round knockdown rate is 0.75 and he owns seven championship rounds. None of that is available here, which is precisely why the analysis holds the line at 55-45 rather than 60-40.

Recent form points opposite ways

Jourdain has won his last two logged bouts, both by finish. Vera has lost his last three logged bouts, all on the cards, all to men who out-worked him — which is the shape Jourdain brings.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Boxing Clinic

Jourdain takes a cheap first round, out-lands Vera by seven or eight strikes a round for fifteen minutes and never lets the fight touch the fence. Vera's last three logged defeats all looked like this — out-worked, never hurt, 29-28 on two cards.

Scripted outcomes for Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Charles Jourdain win probability
0%
14%
27%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Fourteen points off a 0.58 knockdown average, 18th of 79 — identical to Vera's. Capped hard by the target: one knockdown absorbed in 72 Octagon rounds.

  • His largest bucket and the largest single outcome on the page. Twenty-two extra significant strikes over fifteen minutes against a man who has lost his last three logged fights exactly this way.

  • Four points, which is more than the framing suggests — he has four UFC submissions in eight wins and finished Davey Grant in 3:05 last October. It stays small only because Vera defends 71% of takedowns.

Marlon Vera win probability
0%
16%
21%
18%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Seven UFC knockouts, five of them after the ten-minute mark, and a knockdown rate that triples from the first round to the third. Against a man who has been stopped once, by Jean Silva in 82 seconds.

  • Twenty-one points, and the number the round-by-round data pushes back on hardest — he is out-landed in every round and has dropped four straight decisions.

  • The most contestable figure on the page. It is built on Jourdain's 46% takedown defence and 0.80 submission attempts per fifteen minutes; it is undercut by the fact that Vera's last Octagon submission was Nohelin Hernandez in July 2019.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Charles
R2
Charles
R3
Marlon
29-28 Jourdain
Volume in the first two, Vera takes a scrappy third
The most likely card, and why his decision bucket is 27 to Vera's 21
29-28 Vera
Leg kicks bank the first, knockdown or control decides the third
The realistic Vera card in a fight that reaches them
30-27 Jourdain
Nothing breaks structure and the volume runs unopposed
Live but less common — Vera is rarely swept

Model and price

Charles Jourdain

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
45%
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Reference quote-233 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-35.7%
Edge vs no-vig market
-22.4 pp

Marlon Vera

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
55%
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Reference quote+195 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+62.3%
Edge vs no-vig market
+22.4 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Charles Jourdain

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Marlon Vera

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

7 value leans4 fair9 avoid
Goes the Distance — No+170+15.0ppUnder 2.5 Rounds+197+8.3ppMarlon Vera by Submission+900+8.0ppDouble Chance — Marlon Vera by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+225+6.2pp+3 more in table
Full prop table (20)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Goes the Distance — No+170BetOnline37.0%52%1.92+15.0+40.4%Value lean
Under 2.5 Rounds+197BetOnline33.7%42%2.38+8.3+24.7%Value lean
Marlon Vera by Submission+900BetOnline10.0%18%5.56+8.0+80.0%Value lean
Double Chance — Marlon Vera by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+225BetOnline30.8%37%2.70+6.2+20.3%Value lean
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ+310BetOnline24.4%30%3.33+5.6+23.0%Value lean
Charles Jourdain by KO/TKO/DQ+1000BetOnline9.1%14%7.14+4.9+54.0%Value lean
Decision — Marlon Vera by Unanimous Decision+500BetOnline16.7%21%4.76+4.3+26.0%Value lean
Marlon Vera by Points+450BetOnline18.2%21%4.76+2.8+15.5%Fair price
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission+385BetOnline20.6%22%4.55+1.4+6.7%Fair price
Point Spread — Charles Jourdain -3.5+120BetOnline45.5%45%2.22-0.5-1.0%Fair price
Marlon Vera by KO/TKO/DQ+500BetOnline16.7%16%6.25-0.7-4.0%Fair price
Charles Jourdain by Submission+650BetOnline13.3%4%25.00-9.3-70.0%Avoid / overpriced
Over 2.5 Rounds-235BetOnline70.1%58%1.72-12.1-17.3%Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — Yes-210BetOnline67.7%48%2.08-19.7-29.1%Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance-210BetOnline67.7%48%2.08-19.7-29.1%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Marlon Vera-150BetOnline60.0%34%2.94-26.0-43.3%Avoid / overpriced
Decision — Charles Jourdain by Unanimous Decision-115BetOnline53.5%27%3.70-26.5-49.5%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Charles Jourdain+120BetOnline45.5%18%5.56-27.5-60.4%Avoid / overpriced
Charles Jourdain by Points-130BetOnline56.5%27%3.70-29.5-52.2%Avoid / overpriced
Double Chance — Charles Jourdain by Submission or Decision-200BetOnline66.7%31%3.23-35.7-53.5%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The market has this backwards on the moneyline and the distance markets. Vera +195 is the headline — 55% model vs 33.9% implied. Vera by submission at +900 (+8pp edge) is the structural play into Jourdain's 46% takedown defence, though Vera has not submitted anyone since 2019. Goes the Distance No at +170 (37% implied vs 52% model) and Under 2.5 at +197 are the finish-side values. Jourdain by points at -130 is the market's biggest overreach: 56.5% implied against a 27% model read when the round-by-round data has Jourdain winning on volume but Vera winning the model.

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A genuine coin-flip-adjacent lean. Vera's takedown defence, finishing résumé and one-knockdown-in-72-rounds durability carry the model to 55, and Jourdain's superior output in all three rounds keeps it from going any further. Lean: Marlon Vera.

What backs the lean

  • One knockdown absorbed in 72 UFC rounds while eating 5.34 significant strikes a minute.

  • 71% takedown defence and 39% takedown accuracy against Jourdain's 46% and 21%.

  • Eleven finishes in fifteen UFC wins, five of the seven knockouts landing after the ten-minute mark.

  • Wins over Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Sean O'Malley — a level Jourdain has not beaten.

What limits it

  • Jourdain out-lands him in all three rounds and ranks 13th of 79 in output to Vera's 42nd.

  • Vera has lost his last three logged bouts, all on the cards, all to men who simply out-worked him.

  • The submission edge is thinner than it reads — four UFC submissions each, and Vera's last was July 2019.

  • Three rounds removes the championship-round window where his knockdown rate reaches 0.75.

Final Assessment

This is the closest fight on the UFC 331 prelims and the numbers explain why in two lines. Charles Jourdain lands more significant strikes than Marlon Vera in the first round, the second and the third, absorbs 1.12 fewer per minute, and ranks 13th of 79 active bantamweights in output against Vera's 42nd. Marlon Vera has been knocked down once in 72 Octagon rounds and defends 71% of takedowns against a man who defends 46%. Everything else is commentary.

The model's 55-45 rests on an 18% submission bucket that the fight log does not fully support. Vera's ten career submissions are real, but four of them came in the UFC and none since July 2019 — meanwhile Charles Jourdain has four UFC submissions in eight wins and choked Davey Grant out in 3:05 last October, on the same night Vera dropped a split decision to Aiemann Zahabi. Read on shared opponents rather than reputations, the grappling gap narrows sharply.

The honest read: Vera is the more dangerous fighter and Jourdain is the more likely one to win rounds, which is exactly what a 55-45 line with a 27-point decision bucket for the underdog describes. Vera's last three logged defeats all came from men who out-worked him for fifteen minutes without hurting him, and that is precisely the fight Charles Jourdain brings. Take Chito narrowly if you must, but the dog by decision is where the page's own evidence points hardest.

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