Eleven fights in the small cage. The UFC Apex hosts Brendan Allen (27-7) — fourteen career submissions and 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes — against Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2), who owns four inches of reach, 58% accuracy and the cleaner defensive line, over five rounds at middleweight. Co-main: Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza. Model leans: Allen 53% and Godinez 60%. Live on Paramount+ at 8:00 PM ET.
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A main event that splits cleanly by phase: Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2) owns every striking column, Brendan Allen (27-7) owns the only one that finishes — 1.06 submission attempts per 15 against a 58% takedown defense, over five rounds. Plus Godinez vs. Souza at strawweight. Model leans: Allen 53%, Godinez 60%.
We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).
27-7-0
ML Model
Market Odds
15-2-0
10-3-0
ML Model
Market Odds
7-1-0
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Vegas 122 — the main-event phase split, the card spotlights, the questions everyone asks, and why the small cage changes the reads.
The Story
UFC Vegas 122 is a main event that refuses to be settled on paper, because the two men win in different phases and neither has to visit the other's. Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2) owns every striking column that exists: a four-inch reach advantage at 79 inches, 58% accuracy against 52%, and 2.36 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 3.78. Brendan Allen (27-7) owns the only column that ends fights here — 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes and eleven career submission wins, aimed at a takedown defense that sits at 58%. Five rounds and a 25-foot Apex cage both tilt toward the grappler, and that is the entire margin: the model reads it Allen 53%.
Beneath it, this is an unusually wrestling-heavy undercard. Otari Tanzilovi (4.50 takedowns per 15), Matheus Camilo (4.16), Julius Walker (4.07) and Felipe Franco (3.70) all attack opponents whose takedown defense sits at or below 67% — in the smallest cage the promotion uses. The co-main follows the same script: Lupita Godinez lands 2.99 takedowns per 15 against Ketlen Souza's 54% defense, and the model leans 60%. Every fight above includes BetOnline odds when posted, model probabilities, and a full breakdown.
Main Event — Middleweight
01Allen vs. Duncan
Duncan takes every striking column — four inches of reach, 58% accuracy, 2.36 absorbed per minute. Allen takes the only finishing one: 1.06 submission attempts per 15 and fourteen career taps against 58% takedown defense. ~53% Allen over five rounds.
Full breakdown →
Co-Main — Women's Strawweight
02Godinez vs. Souza
One mechanism decides it: Godinez's 2.99 takedowns per 15 against Souza's 54% takedown defense. Souza has the accuracy edge at 57% — she just has to stay upright to use it. ~60% Godinez.
Full breakdown →
Main Card — Featherweight
03Fili vs. Kamaka III
Kamaka lands 5.49 per minute at 59% accuracy; Fili lands 3.89 at 38% and absorbs 4.55. Five years and twenty-one accuracy points separate them — ~60% Kamaka, capped by Fili's 72% takedown defense.
Full breakdown →
Prelim Spotlight
04Franco vs. Poppeck & Walker vs. Meerschaert
Poppeck absorbs 8.69 strikes per minute behind 34% defense — the worst line on the card — against Franco's 3.70 takedowns and ten first-round finishes (~64%). Walker is ~57% over Meerschaert: 4.07 takedowns against 40% defense, capped by 1.49 submission attempts per 15 waiting underneath.
Full breakdown →
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan — billed as UFC Vegas 122 — is an eleven-fight card on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The five-round middleweight main event pairs Brendan Allen (27-7), the division's most active submission threat at 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes and fourteen career taps, against Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2), who brings a four-inch reach advantage, 58% striking accuracy and the better defensive line at 2.36 significant strikes absorbed per minute. The co-main is a women's strawweight bout between Lupita Godinez (14-6) and Ketlen Souza (17-6). MMA Analytics leans Allen 53% and Godinez ~60%. The card streams on Paramount+ at 8:00 PM ET.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan streams live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 10, 2026. Prelims begin at 5:00 PM ET and the main card follows at 8:00 PM ET, both on Paramount+. Las Vegas is on Pacific time, so the local main-card start is 5:00 PM PT. Viewers in the United Kingdom and Ireland face a 1:00 AM BST start on Sunday, and Central Europe a 2:00 AM CEST start. All listed times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes.
Brendan Allen (27-7) headlines against Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2) in a five-round middleweight main event. The co-main is Lupita Godinez (14-6) vs. Ketlen Souza (17-6) at women's strawweight, and the main card is completed by Andre Fili (25-14) vs. Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1) at featherweight. The preliminary card carries Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi (bantamweight), Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert and Francisco Prado vs. Artur Minev (lightweight), Darya Zheleznyakova vs. Alice Pereira (women's bantamweight), Felipe Franco vs. Alexander Poppeck and Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert (light heavyweight), Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto (women's flyweight), and RJ Harris vs. Allen Frye Jr. (heavyweight).
MMA Analytics currently favors Brendan Allen at approximately 53% win probability versus Christian Leroy Duncan at 47%. It is the narrowest main-event line on the October calendar, and the reason is that the two men win in different phases. Duncan owns every striking column: a four-inch reach advantage at 79 inches, 58% accuracy against Allen's 52%, and 2.36 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 3.78. Allen owns the only column that finishes fights here — 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes and eleven career submission wins, aimed at a takedown defense of 58%. Five rounds and the 25-foot Apex cage both favor the grappler, and that is the whole margin. Full fight pages compare these model probabilities to BetOnline odds when a market opens.
Yes. This card runs from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which means the smaller 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon. That matters more than it sounds here: a tighter cage compresses distance, which cuts against Duncan's four-inch reach advantage in the main event and favours the pressure wrestlers stacked through the undercard — Otari Tanzilovi (4.50 takedowns per 15), Matheus Camilo (4.16) and Julius Walker (4.07).
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters — it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen vs Duncan🟢 | Brendan Allen | 53% | N/A | — | Christian Leroy Duncan | 47% | N/A | — |
| Godinez vs Souza🟢 | Lupita Godinez | 60% | N/A | — | Ketlen Souza | 40% | N/A | — |
| Fili vs III🟢 | Andre Fili | 40% | N/A | — | Kai Kamaka III | 60% | N/A | — |
| Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi🟡 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 40% | N/A | — | Otari Tanzilovi | 60% | N/A | — |
| Camilo vs Herbert🟡 | Matheus Camilo | 55% | N/A | — | Jai Herbert | 45% | N/A | — |
| Kareckaite vs Gatto🟡 | Ernesta Kareckaite | 52% | N/A | — | Melissa Gatto | 48% | N/A | — |
| Walker vs Meerschaert🟡 | Julius Walker | 60% | N/A | — | Gerald Meerschaert | 40% | N/A | — |
