PRELIM · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Felipe Franco — Light Heavyweight fighter

Felipe Franco

11W2L
Grappling Finisher
…
VS
Alexander Poppeck — Light Heavyweight fighter

Alexander Poppeck

21W6L
All-Action Knockout Artist
…

The worst defensive numbers at either October event, against a hundred-percent finisher who wrestles

Light HeavyweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The widest technical gap at either October event, and it is built on two numbers that are hard to look away from. Alexander Poppeck absorbs 8.69 significant strikes per minute behind 34% striking defence — both by a clear margin the worst figures of the forty-six fighters analysed across UFC 332 and UFC Vegas 122 — and he attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes with no takedown defence recorded at all, because nobody has tried one on him in the Octagon. Felipe Franco absorbs 2.39, defends 88% of takedowns, and attempts 3.70 per fifteen minutes. Franco is also 11-0 in wins that reached a conclusion: eleven professional victories, eleven finishes, ten of them in the opening round, seven by knockout and four by submission. What keeps this at 64/36 rather than higher is that Poppeck's power is real and recent — thirteen career knockouts, eleven first-round finishes, and a unanimous-decision win over former KSW light heavyweight champion Tomasz Narkun at OKTAGON 86 in April 2026, comfortably the best result on either sheet. The complication for him is the newest fact on the page: Jovan Leka knocked him out at 2:22 of the first round on August 1, five weeks before this fight. Model: Franco 64% / Poppeck 36%, conviction 6/10.

Felipe Franco
Attribute
Alexander Poppeck
259 years
Age
34
6'1" (73")
Height
6'3" (75")
Not published
Reach
74"
Grappling finisher — ten first-round finishes
Fighting Style
All-action knockout artist — thirteen knockouts
Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
Origin
Germany — fights out of OKTAGON
2.39 per minute
Damage Absorbed
8.69 per minute
44%
Striking Defence
34%
3.70
Takedowns / 15
0.00

Two inches of height to Poppeck and no published reach figure for Franco at all, so this page claims no reach differential. What that leaves is a phase question rather than a size question, and the phases do not overlap: Poppeck is a stand-up fighter with no wrestling in either direction, and Franco attempts 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Neither man's frame is going to decide anything.

Venue Factor
The UFC Apex uses a 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon — five fewer feet of retreat in every direction, which taxes range fighters and rewards anyone who wants a back against the fence. For a fighter attempting 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against an opponent with no recorded takedown defence, it is close to an ideal venue.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Felipe Franco, UFC light heavyweight

Felipe Franco

Pro Record
11-2-0
UFC Record
1-1 across two Octagon bouts
Streak
Coming off a second-round knockout
Finish Rate
100% (11 of 11 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 0 decisions
Avg Fight Time
12:09 in the UFC
Chin · Untested — never knocked outSOS · Rising — one Octagon win, one Octagon lossGrappling finisher

Eleven professional wins and eleven finishes — ten of them in the opening round. Franco built that record on the Brazilian regional circuit through 2024 and 2025, lost a Contender Series bout to Freddy Vidal by third-round submission in September 2025, and arrived in the UFC anyway. Mario Pinto out-pointed him over three rounds in March 2026 and he answered with a second-round knockout of Levi Rodrigues Jr. in July. The rate line describes a fighter who does almost nothing at range and everything once the fight changes level: 2.55 significant strikes landed per minute — very low — behind 57% accuracy, with 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 88% takedown defence and just 2.39 significant strikes absorbed per minute, the best damage figure in this bout by a distance.

Alexander Poppeck, UFC light heavyweight

Alexander Poppeck

Pro Record
21-6-0
UFC Record
0-1 — knocked out on debut
Streak
Coming off a first-round knockout loss
Finish Rate
67% (14 of 21 wins) — 13 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 7 decisions
Avg Fight Time
5:56 in the UFC
Chin · Cracked — stopped in his Octagon debutSOS · OKTAGON main-event levelAll-action knockout artist

A OKTAGON headliner who arrived in the UFC on a four-fight winning run and was knocked out in the first round of his debut. Poppeck beat Pavol Langer, David Hosek, Jesus Samuel Chavarria and — most impressively — former KSW light heavyweight champion Tomasz Narkun by unanimous decision at OKTAGON 86 in April 2026. Five weeks before this fight, on August 1, Jovan Leka stopped him at 2:22 of the opening round. His Octagon rate line is the most alarming in this analysis series: 8.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 34% striking defence, both by far the worst figures at either October event, derived from very little cage time. What is genuinely established is the power — thirteen knockouts in twenty-one wins and eleven first-round finishes.

Felipe Franco
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Alexander Poppeck
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Felipe Francosignature weapons

The First-Round FinishTen of his eleven career wins ended in the opening round, including a 32-second knockout of Kleberson Tavares in December 2025
×10
The Takedown Chain3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes with 88% takedown defence — the second-highest takedown volume at UFC Vegas 122, against an opponent who attempts none
×4

Alexander Poppecksignature weapons

The Knockout RightThirteen knockouts in twenty-one wins and eleven first-round finishes, including a 75-second stoppage of Pavol Langer
×13
OKTAGON Championship RoundsSeven career decisions including a full three-round win over former KSW champion Tomasz Narkun — the best result on either sheet
×7

Felipe Franco

W
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
KO/TKO
RR2 (1:40)
UFC FN: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Jul 18, 2026
L
Mario Pinto
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Evloev vs. Murphy — Mar 21, 2026
W
Douglas Felipe Santos
Submission — Rear-Naked Choke
RR1 (4:07)
Mamute Fight Champion 10 — Feb 7, 2026
W
Kleberson Tavares
KO/TKO
RR1 (0:32)
Coliseu Extreme Fight 14 — Dec 11, 2025
L
Freddy Vidal
Submission
RR3 (4:48)
Dana White's Contender Series S9 — Sep 9, 2025
Pattern

A knockout, a decision loss, a submission and a knockout across his last four — and the decision loss to Mario Pinto in March 2026 is the only time in thirteen professional fights that anyone has taken him to a scorecard. Everything else on his record ended early, and ten of the eleven wins ended in the opening round. The Freddy Vidal submission loss on the Contender Series is the one blemish that suggests a ceiling.

Alexander Poppeck

L
Jovan Leka
KO/TKO
RR1 (2:22)
UFC FN: Medić vs. Rodriguez — Aug 1, 2026
W
Tomasz Narkun
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
OKTAGON 86 — Apr 11, 2026
W
Jesus Samuel Chavarria
Submission — Rear-Naked Choke
RR1 (3:30)
OKTAGON 83 — Jan 31, 2026
W
David Hosek
KO/TKO
RR2 (2:25)
OKTAGON 80 — Nov 22, 2025
W
Pavol Langer
KO/TKO
RR1 (1:15)
OKTAGON 71 — May 17, 2025
Pattern

Four straight wins on the OKTAGON circuit, including a three-round decision over Tomasz Narkun, and then a first-round knockout loss on his UFC debut five weeks before this fight. The Narkun result is genuinely good and the Leka result is genuinely alarming, and there is no way to know yet which one describes him at this level.

Felipe Franco

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Alexander Poppeck

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
One of the most extreme charts in this analysis series sits on the left: Felipe Franco has eleven wins and eleven finishes — a 100% finish rate with zero career decisions — and ten of them landed in the opening round. Poppeck's is more conventional: thirteen knockouts, one submission and seven decisions in twenty-one wins. The round columns say the same thing from both directions, which is that this fight is very unlikely to see a third round: between them these two have twenty-one first-round finishes, and the combined finish probability below is among the highest at either event.

Common Opponents

OpponentFelipeAlexander
Jovan Leka (blueprint)—never facedL· KO/TKO R1 2:22 (Aug 2026)
The only Octagon evidence about Poppeck and it is five weeks old: he was stopped in the opening round of his debut
Mario Pinto (level proxy)L· Unanimous decision (Mar 2026)—never faced
Franco's only UFC defeat, and the one time anyone has taken him to a scorecard in thirteen professional fights
Tomasz Narkun (level proxy)—never facedW· Unanimous decision (OKTAGON 86, Apr 2026)
A win over a former KSW light heavyweight champion, and comfortably the best result on either sheet — earned outside the UFC
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Felipe
0
Alexandersmall sample

Ten points, and the entire gap is defensive. Poppeck lands more (3.88 significant strikes per minute against 2.55) at near-identical accuracy (55% to 57%), and then absorbs 8.69 significant strikes per minute behind 34% striking defence — both by a wide margin the worst figures at either October event. Franco absorbs 2.39. That is a difference of 6.30 strikes a minute, which over fifteen minutes is roughly ninety-five extra shots taken.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Felipe
0
Alexander

The most extreme gauge gap in this entire analysis series, and it is not a modelling artefact. Franco attempts 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes and defends 88%; Poppeck attempts zero and UFC.com publishes no takedown-defence figure for him at all, because nobody has attempted one in his single Octagon appearance. Franco has four career submissions to Poppeck's one.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Felipe
0.0
Alexander

Twenty-seven and a half points, the widest technical gap at either event — and it should be read with the caveat that half of it is a missing number rather than a measured one.

Cardio

Fight time · rounds contested · pace curve

0
Felipe
0
Alexandersmall sample

Franco averages 12:09 per Octagon appearance and went the full fifteen minutes against Mario Pinto in March. Poppeck averages 5:56 in the UFC and has seven career decisions on the OKTAGON circuit, so his deep-water record is genuinely good — it simply has not survived contact with the Octagon, where his only appearance lasted 2:22.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Felipe
0.0
Alexander

Nearly twenty points, against a model line of twenty-eight. Both agree on direction, and both are built on a Poppeck profile that is one UFC knockout loss deep.

MetricFelipeAlexander
Avg Fight Time12:09 (UFC)5:56 (UFC)small sample
Pace Tier2.55 SLpM at 57% accuracy3.88 SLpM at 55% accuracysmall sample
Damage Absorbed2.39 per minute8.69 per minute — worst at either event
Striking Defence44%34%
First-Round Finishes10 of 11 wins11 of 21 wins

Archetype Base Rate

Grappling Finisher 64%36% All-Action Knockout Artist

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 64/36 rests on 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against zero and no recorded takedown defence, 2.39 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 8.69, a 100% career finish rate with ten first-round wins, and a 25-foot cage. It is capped by thirteen career knockouts, eleven first-round finishes of Poppeck's own, and a genuinely excellent win over Tomasz Narkun five months ago.

Felipe FrancoAlexander Poppeck

Light Heavyweight

· 28 fighters
StatFelipeFelipe rankDiv avgAlexander rankAlexander
SLpM2.55—~3.55—3.88
Str Acc57%—~49%—55%
Str Def44%—~55%—34%
SApM2.39—~3.48—8.69
TD/153.70—~1.52—0.00
TD Def88%—~62%—Not found — never tested
Sub/150.00 (4 career subs)—~0.44—0.00 (1 career sub)
Career Finish Rate100% (11 of 11)———67% (14 of 21)
First-Round Finishes10———11
UFC Record1-1———0-1
Avg Fight Time12:09———5:56
Statistical Verdict
Franco is above the light heavyweight baseline on accuracy, well above it on takedown volume and takedown defence, and more than a full strike per minute better than it on damage absorbed. Poppeck is above baseline on accuracy and output and catastrophically below it everywhere defensive — 34% striking defence against a ~55% benchmark and 8.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute against ~3.48. Every rate on his side carries a flag, but a figure that far from the baseline is unlikely to be entirely noise. The bottom rows close it: a 100% finish rate against 67%, and 12:09 of average fight time against 5:56.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Felipe Franco

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Alexander Poppeck

Control Time per Round (sec)

Felipe Franco

  • No round-by-round row exists for Felipe Franco: both of his Octagon appearances postdate the database snapshot, so nothing above is estimated.
  • What the verified thirteen-bout log shows instead: eleven wins and eleven finishes, ten of them in the opening round, including a 32-second knockout of Kleberson Tavares in December 2025.
  • His only career decision of any kind is a loss — the unanimous decision to Mario Pinto in March 2026. He has never won on the scorecards.
  • The UFC.com line of 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 88% takedown defence and 2.39 significant strikes absorbed is derived from roughly twenty-four minutes of Octagon time.

Alexander Poppeck

  • No round-by-round row exists for Alexander Poppeck either — his August 2026 UFC debut postdates the snapshot.
  • What the verified twenty-seven-bout log shows: thirteen knockouts in twenty-one wins, eleven first-round finishes, and a unanimous-decision win over former KSW champion Tomasz Narkun at OKTAGON 86 in April 2026.
  • His Octagon debut ended at 2:22 of the first round when Jovan Leka knocked him out on August 1, 2026 — five weeks before this fight.
  • The 8.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 34% striking defence come from that single appearance. They are the worst figures at either October event and they are one fight deep.
Critical Insight
Both charts are empty, because both fighters' UFC careers postdate the database snapshot. What replaces them is a pair of career logs that describe almost the same fight from opposite sides: twenty-one first-round finishes between them, a 100% finish rate on one side and 67% on the other, and neither man with a meaningful record of contesting a third round in the Octagon. The single distinguishing fact is that one of them wrestles at 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes and the other has never had a takedown attempted on him at all.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Felipe · N/AAlexander · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceAlexander owns it

Poppeck lands 3.88 significant strikes per minute against 2.55 and is two inches taller — the only phase he leads

Pocket / ExchangesAlexander owns it

Thirteen career knockouts against seven, but into a fighter who absorbs 2.39 a minute and has never been stopped

ClinchFelipe owns it

3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against zero attempts and no recorded takedown defence, in a 25-foot cage

GroundFelipe owns it

Four career submissions against one, with 88% takedown defence meaning the position can only go one way

Path to Victory

Felipe Franco

Change levels. Nobody has ever attempted a takedown on Alexander Poppeck in the Octagon, and Franco attempts 3.70 per fifteen minutes.

Why they win
01
3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against zero

And no recorded takedown defence on the other side. The widest grappling gap in this analysis series.

02
2.39 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 8.69

A difference of 6.30 a minute — roughly ninety-five extra strikes over fifteen minutes.

03
A 100% career finish rate

Eleven wins, eleven finishes, ten in the opening round, seven by knockout and four by submission.

04
Nine years younger

25 against 34, against a man knocked out five weeks before this fight.

05
88% takedown defence

The fight can only go to the mat in one direction.

06
The 25-foot Apex cage

Close to an ideal venue for a fighter whose primary weapon is the level change.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Change levels inside the first minute

    Nobody has attempted a takedown on Poppeck in the Octagon. There is no reason to find out whether he can defend one at range.

  2. 2
    Use the fence

    The Apex is 25 feet across and Poppeck has no wrestling in either direction to punish a tie-up.

  3. 3
    Do not trade early

    Thirteen career knockouts and eleven first-round finishes. His own 44% striking defence is not good enough to gamble with.

  4. 4
    Hunt the choke

    Four career submissions, and an opponent who absorbs 8.69 significant strikes a minute will be breathing hard the moment the fight goes long.

  5. 5
    Make it past minute six

    Poppeck averages 5:56 in the UFC and was stopped in a first round five weeks ago. Time is entirely on Franco's side.

  6. 6
    Contingency — if Plan A fails

    If the takedowns are stuffed, the fallback is the clinch rather than open space — he cannot win a volume war at 2.55 significant strikes per minute.

Path to Victory

Alexander Poppeck

Land the right hand early. Thirteen knockouts, eleven of them in the first round.

Why they win
01
Thirteen career knockouts and eleven first-round finishes

Genuine, established power against a man whose own striking defence reads 44%.

02
A decision win over Tomasz Narkun

A former KSW light heavyweight champion, over three rounds at OKTAGON 86 five months ago — the best result on either sheet.

03
Two inches of height

And Franco has no published reach figure, so the frame is at worst neutral for him.

04
Seven career decisions

Against an opponent who has never won one in thirteen professional fights.

05
Higher output

3.88 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.55, at comparable accuracy.

06
Twenty-seven professional fights against thirteen

Twice the experience, including OKTAGON main events.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Look for the finish immediately

    Eleven first-round finishes, and every minute after the fifth is one his numbers say he loses.

  2. 2
    Sprawl and separate above all else

    He has never had a takedown attempted on him in the Octagon. Whatever the answer is, it needs to be practised before minute two.

  3. 3
    Use the two inches and the volume

    3.88 significant strikes per minute against 2.55 is a real edge if the fight stays standing.

  4. 4
    Stay off the fence

    The 25-foot cage is the worst possible room for a fighter with no wrestling against one with 3.70 takedowns per fifteen.

  5. 5
    Attack the body if the head is not there

    Franco has never been knocked out; wearing him down is a slower but more realistic route than a single shot.

  6. 6
    Contingency — if Plan A fails

    If he is taken down in the first round, getting back up matters more than anything else — Franco has four career submissions and a 100% finish rate.

Danger Zone

How Felipe Franco loses

  • He walks into the shot that has ended thirteen fights before his takedown ever lands.

  • His 44% striking defence proves to be the softer of the two and Poppeck's volume advantage decides three rounds standing.

  • He is taken to a decision for the second time in his career against a man with seven of them, and loses it the same way he lost to Mario Pinto.

Danger Zone

How Alexander Poppeck loses

  • He is taken down in the first two minutes and finds out what his takedown defence is at the worst possible moment.

  • The knockout loss from five weeks ago repeats itself against a man with seven knockouts and ten first-round finishes.

  • He absorbs 8.69 significant strikes per minute for fifteen minutes and there is simply nothing left by the third.

The worst defensive number at either event

Eight Point Six Nine

Alexander Poppeck absorbs 8.69 significant strikes per minute behind 34% striking defence. Both figures are the worst of any of the forty-six fighters analysed across UFC 332 and UFC Vegas 122, by a wide margin. Felipe Franco absorbs 2.39. Over fifteen minutes that difference is roughly ninety-five extra strikes taken.

8.69 v 2.39
significant strikes absorbed per minute
The grappling vacuum

Zero Against Three Point Seven

Franco attempts 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes and defends 88% of them. Poppeck attempts zero, and UFC.com publishes no takedown-defence figure for him because nobody has ever tried one in his single Octagon appearance. It is the widest grappling gauge gap in this entire analysis series.

3.70 v 0.00
takedowns per 15 minutes
Franco's shape

Eleven Wins, Eleven Finishes, Ten in Round One

Felipe Franco has never been to a decision as a winner. Ten of his eleven career victories ended in the opening round and the eleventh in the second — seven by knockout, four by submission. He has been to a scorecard exactly once in thirteen professional fights, and lost it.

10 of 11
wins in Round 1
The favourite's biggest problem is the underdog's

Knocked Out Five Weeks Ago

Jovan Leka stopped Alexander Poppeck at 2:22 of the first round on August 1, 2026 — his UFC debut and the only Octagon data that exists about him. Turning around inside ten weeks after a knockout loss is a documented risk factor, and it is the newest fact on this page.

Why 36% is not lower

The Narkun Win Is Real

In April 2026 Poppeck beat former KSW light heavyweight champion Tomasz Narkun by unanimous decision over three rounds at OKTAGON 86. It is comfortably the best result on either fighter's record, it happened five months ago, and it is the reason a man with the worst defensive numbers at either event is still given more than a third of the outcomes.

The Five-Round Clock

Felipe Franco danger windowAlexander Poppeck danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Where ten of eleven have ended

Franco has finished ten opponents in the opening round, including a 32-second knockout. Poppeck has eleven first-round finishes of his own and was stopped in one five weeks ago. Roughly half of the total finishing equity in this fight resolves here.

Critical Insight
The most front-loaded fight at UFC Vegas 122. Between them these two have twenty-one first-round finishes, and roughly forty percent of the total finishing equity in this bout resolves in the opening five minutes. After that the curves separate completely: Franco averages 12:09 per Octagon appearance and went the full fifteen minutes in March, while Poppeck averages 5:56, absorbs 8.69 significant strikes per minute, and was stopped in a first round five weeks ago. If the fight is alive at minute six, almost every measured column belongs to the younger man.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Alexander Poppeck absorbs 8.69 significant strikes per minute behind 34% striking defence — the worst pair of figures among all forty-six fighters analysed across both October cards.

2

Felipe Franco is 11-0 in wins that ended: eleven finishes, ten in the opening round, with 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against an opponent who has never had one attempted on him.

3

Model: Franco 64% / Poppeck 36%, conviction 6/10 — and 71 of 100 simulations end early, the highest finish rate at either event.

100 Simulated Fights

Franco KO/TKO — 27%Franco Submission — 19%Poppeck KO/TKO — 24%Franco Decision — 18%Poppeck Decision — 11%Poppeck Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Felipe Franco gold · Alexander Poppeck orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The defensive collapse

8.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 34% striking defence — the worst pair of figures among all forty-six fighters analysed.

The grappling vacuum

3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against zero attempts and no recorded takedown defence.

A 100% career finish rate

Eleven wins, eleven finishes, ten in the opening round — Franco has never needed a scorecard.

Poppeck was knocked out five weeks ago

Jovan Leka stopped him at 2:22 of the first round on August 1, 2026, in his UFC debut.

Thirteen career knockouts

The underdog's entire case, and a real one — eleven of them in the opening round.

The Narkun win

A three-round decision over a former KSW champion in April 2026, and the reason 36% is not lower.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Level Change

Franco attempts 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a man who has never had one attempted on him in the Octagon, in a 25-foot cage. Ten of his eleven career wins ended in the opening round. Once the fight leaves the feet, Poppeck has one career submission and no answer.

Scripted outcomes for Felipe Franco vs Alexander Poppeck — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Felipe Franco win probability
0%
27%
18%
19%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Seven career knockouts and ten first-round finishes, aimed at a man stopped in the opening round of his UFC debut five weeks ago with 34% striking defence.

  • The path he has never taken — eleven wins, eleven finishes, zero decisions — but 3.70 takedowns per fifteen against no recorded takedown defence produces rounds whether he finishes or not.

  • Four career submissions including a rear-naked choke in February 2026, against an opponent with one and no way to prevent the position. The second-largest bucket on the page.

Alexander Poppeck win probability
0%
24%
11%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Almost his entire column. Thirteen career knockouts and eleven first-round finishes — the power is genuine and it is the only thing that keeps this fight competitive.

  • Seven career decisions including a three-round win over former KSW champion Tomasz Narkun. It requires him to survive fifteen minutes while absorbing 8.69 significant strikes per minute.

  • One career submission and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes, against a man who defends 88% of takedowns. Effectively absent.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Alexander
R2
Felipe
R3
Felipe
29-28 Franco
Poppeck takes the first on volume; Franco takes the last two on wrestling
The most likely card — but only 29% of simulations reach one
30-27 Franco
The takedowns land from the opening bell against no recorded defence
Live, and the natural extension of a 3.70-to-0.00 mismatch
29-28 Poppeck
The reach and volume keep it standing for fifteen minutes
Requires Franco to abandon the only phase he clearly wins

Moneyline

Felipe Franco
Not posted
Alexander Poppeck
Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Felipe Franco -178 from 64% and Alexander Poppeck +178 from 36% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Franco by submission at 19% is the most under-priced outcome on the page: four career submissions, an opponent with one and no recorded takedown defence, and a 25-foot cage. Markets will price the knockout because both men are finishers, and the choke is the likelier of Franco's two finishing routes given the grappling vacuum. The structural read is that this fight does not reach the cards — 71% of simulations end early, the highest figure at either October event.
Conviction
0
6/10

A wide, well-evidenced lean on a genuinely thin data set. Every defensive column belongs to Franco by enormous margins — 2.39 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 8.69, 88% takedown defence against a figure that does not exist — and he brings a 100% career finish rate with ten first-round wins into a 25-foot cage against a man knocked out five weeks ago. The caveats are that Poppeck's alarming numbers come from a single Octagon appearance, that he has thirteen career knockouts and eleven first-round finishes of his own, and that his April 2026 decision over Tomasz Narkun is the best result on either sheet. Lean: Felipe Franco.

What backs the lean

  • 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against zero attempts and no recorded takedown defence.

  • 2.39 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 8.69 — a difference of 6.30 a minute.

  • 88% takedown defence, meaning the fight can only go to the mat one way.

  • A 100% career finish rate: eleven wins, eleven finishes, ten in the opening round.

  • Nine years younger, against a man stopped five weeks before this fight.

  • The 25-foot Apex cage, close to an ideal venue for a level-change fighter.

What limits it

  • Thirteen career knockouts and eleven first-round finishes — the power is established and current.

  • A unanimous-decision win over former KSW champion Tomasz Narkun five months ago.

  • Higher output at 3.88 significant strikes per minute against 2.55.

  • Two inches of height, with no reach figure published for Franco.

  • Twenty-seven professional fights against thirteen, and seven career decisions against zero.

  • Every alarming number on Poppeck's sheet comes from one Octagon appearance.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty-four of one hundred simulations Felipe Franco wins, and forty-six of those end early. The mechanism is the widest grappling vacuum in this analysis series: he attempts 3.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes against an opponent who attempts none and has never had one attempted on him, in a 25-foot cage, with four career submissions waiting once the fight changes level. Twenty-seven of those are knockouts and nineteen are chokes; eighteen more are decisions he has never actually won in thirteen professional fights.

In the other thirty-six, the power arrives first. Alexander Poppeck has thirteen career knockouts and eleven first-round finishes, and Felipe Franco's own striking defence reads 44%. Twenty-four of those simulations are Poppeck knockouts, almost all inside the first eight minutes, and eleven are decisions built on the higher output and the OKTAGON experience that produced a win over Tomasz Narkun in April.

The uncomfortable part of this page is that the numbers making Poppeck look unbackable — 8.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 34% striking defence, no takedown defence at all — come from one Octagon appearance that lasted 142 seconds. They are the worst figures at either October event and they are one fight deep. On October 10 at the Apex — Franco 64% / Poppeck 36%, conviction 6/10, with 71 of 100 outcomes ending before the cards.

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