Francisco Prado vs Artur Minev – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Francisco Prado

12W5L

Octagon-Seasoned Finisher

…

Artur Minev

7W1L

Low-Volume Counter Finisher

…

Four straight decision losses against the lowest output figure at either event

LightweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two young lightweights in trouble, and the numbers are unusual on both sides. Francisco Prado is 24, signed with the UFC at twenty, and is 1-5 in the Octagon with four consecutive decision losses — to Charles Radtke, Nikolay Veretennikov, Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber. He is also 12-0 in fights he has won that reached a conclusion: twelve wins, twelve finishes, six knockouts and six submissions, and zero career decision victories. He wins by finishing and loses by being out-pointed, and he has not finished anyone since July 2023. Artur Minev is 22, came through Fury FC on a run of first-round knockouts including a 28-second finish, and was stopped by Tommy Gantt at 2:51 of the second round on his UFC debut in May 2026 — Gantt fights Drakkar Klose on the Noche UFC card four weeks before this bout. The rate line that came out of that debut is the most extreme in this analysis series in two directions at once: 1.02 significant strikes landed per minute, the lowest figure of any of the forty-six fighters analysed, at 62% accuracy — the second-highest — behind 26% striking defence, the worst at either card. Model: Prado 52% / Minev 48%, conviction 3/10.

Francisco Prado

Attribute

Artur Minev

Age

5'10" (70")

Height

5'9" (69")

69"

Reach

Not published

Pressure striker with a leg-kick game

Fighting Style

Low-volume counter finisher

San Lorenzo, Argentina

Origin

Odesa Oblast, Ukraine

3.68 SLpM

Output

1.02 SLpM — lowest at either event

54%

Striking Defence

26%

Four consecutive decision losses

Recent Form

Coming off a second-round knockout loss

An inch of height to Prado and no published reach figure for Minev at all, which means this page claims no meaningful physical differential. What separates them is method rather than frame: Prado is a forward-pressure fighter who invests heavily in leg kicks — 26.2%, 37.9% and 22.2% of his landed strikes across the three rounds — and Minev is a counter-fighter who throws barely one significant strike a minute and lands 62% of them. Neither man wrestles: 0.76 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes against zero.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot Apex cage compresses distance, which favours the fighter walking forward and pressures the one waiting to counter. Prado holds 45 to 53 seconds of control per round and Minev attempts no takedowns at all, so the fence is available to one man and not the other.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Francisco Prado

Pro Record

12-5-0

UFC Record

1-5 across five scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Four consecutive losses

Finish Rate

100% (12 of 12 wins) — 6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 0 decisions

Avg Fight Time

13:11 in the UFC

Chin · Durable — never stopped in the UFCSOS · Hard Octagon schedule from the age of twentyOctagon-seasoned finisher

An Argentine who signed with the UFC at twenty and has spent four years being out-pointed by better-established lightweights without ever being stopped. Prado is 12-5 with a 100% finish rate in his wins — six knockouts and six submissions, and not one career decision victory — and he is also 1-5 in the Octagon, with four consecutive unanimous or split-decision defeats to Charles Radtke, Nikolay Veretennikov, Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber. His only UFC win is a first-round knockout of Ottman Azaitar in July 2023. The round data shows a fighter who does the same thing every round and cannot quite close it out: 20.6, 21.8 and 18.0 significant strikes landed with accuracy falling from 49.5% to 39.3%, and a leg-kick share reaching 37.9% in the second round.

Artur Minev

Pro Record

7-1-0

UFC Record

0-1 — knocked out on debut

Streak

Coming off a second-round knockout loss

Finish Rate

86% (6 of 7 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision

Avg Fight Time

7:51 in the UFC

Chin · Cracked — stopped in his Octagon debutSOS · Fury FC champion level, plus one Octagon boutLow-volume counter finisher

A Ukrainian who came through Fury FC on a run of first-round knockouts and met the Octagon at twenty-two. Minev knocked out Matt Denning, submitted Tony Pike and Brandon Evans, then ran off first-round knockouts of Cristobal Ibanez in 28 seconds and Shane Keefe before a five-round majority decision over Junior Maranhao at Fury FC 106 in July 2025 and a first-round knockout of Derek Campos in January 2026. Tommy Gantt then stopped him at 2:51 of the second round on his UFC debut in May 2026 — and Gantt fights Drakkar Klose on the Noche UFC card four weeks before this bout. The Octagon rate line that came out of that fight is stark: 1.02 significant strikes landed per minute, the lowest figure of any of the forty-six fighters analysed across both October cards, at 62% accuracy behind 26% striking defence — also the worst.

Francisco Prado

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Artur Minev

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Francisco Pradosignature weapons

The Leg-Kick Investment26.2%, 37.9% and 22.2% of his landed strikes go to the legs across the three rounds — the second-highest leg share at UFC Vegas 122

×12

The Round-1 FinishNine of his twelve career wins ended in the opening round, including a knockout of Ottman Azaitar at 4:05 in July 2023

×12

Artur Minevsignature weapons

The Flash KnockoutFour career knockouts including a 28-second finish of Cristobal Ibanez, and five of his six finishes landed in the opening round

×4

62% AccuracyThe highest accuracy figure in this bout by eighteen points — he throws very little and almost all of it lands

×7

Francisco Prado

Charles Radtke

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026

Nikolay Veretennikov

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC 318 — Jul 19, 2025

Jake Matthews

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 312 — Feb 8, 2025

Daniel Zellhuber

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Royval 2 — Feb 24, 2024

Ottman Azaitar

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:05)

UFC FN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva — Jul 15, 2023

Pattern

Four consecutive decision losses, and none of them close to a stoppage — he has never been finished in the UFC. The pattern is consistent enough to be diagnostic: he pressures, he lands leg kicks, his accuracy falls from 49.5% in the first round to 39.3% in the third, and better-established lightweights out-point him over fifteen minutes. The Ottman Azaitar knockout in July 2023 remains the only Octagon win of his career.

Artur Minev

Tommy Gantt

KO/TKO

RR2 (2:51)

UFC FN: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026

Derek Campos

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:05)

Fury FC 113 — Jan 18, 2026

Junior Maranhao

Decision — Majority

RR5

Fury FC 106 — Jul 18, 2025

Shane Keefe

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:01)

Fury FC 103 — Mar 23, 2025

Cristobal Ibanez

KO/TKO

RR1 (0:28)

Fury FC 98 — Nov 3, 2024

Pattern

Four straight Fury FC wins including a five-round majority decision, then a second-round knockout loss on his UFC debut. The Tommy Gantt result is the only Octagon evidence that exists about him and it is bad in every column — the lowest output at either event, the worst striking defence, and a stoppage. What it does not erase is a 28-second knockout and five first-round finishes in six.

Francisco Prado

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Artur Minev

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
One of the more unusual pairs of charts in this series. Prado has twelve wins and twelve finishes — a perfect 100% finish rate split exactly six knockouts and six submissions, with zero decisions — and has lost four straight fights on the scorecards. Minev is 4-2-1 by method with five of his six finishes in the opening round. The round columns say the same thing about both: nine of Prado's twelve wins and five of Minev's six finishes landed in the first five minutes. Between them they have one career decision win, and neither man has ever won a fifteen-minute fight in the UFC.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Francisco	Artur
Tommy Gantt (also on the September calendar)	—never faced	L· KO/TKO R2 2:51 (May 2026)
Gantt fights Drakkar Klose at Noche UFC four weeks before this card; he is the only man to have stopped Artur Minev
Nikolay Veretennikov (level proxy)	L· Split decision (UFC 318, Jul 2025)	—never faced
Veretennikov was later knocked out in the first round by Khaos Williams, who fights at UFC 332 a week before this card
Fury Fighting Championship (shared level marker)	—never fought there	3-0 across Fury FC 98-113, including a five-round majority decision
The circuit Minev came through, and the only place he has fought past a second round

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Francisco

Artursmall sample

Ten points, split between two very different problems. Prado lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute against 1.02 — the lowest output figure of any of the forty-six fighters analysed across both cards — and defends 54% against 26%, which is also the worst figure at either event. Minev's counter is accuracy: 62% against 44%, eighteen points clear. He throws almost nothing and almost all of it lands.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Francisco

Artur

Two points and both scores are low. Prado attempts 0.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 0.76 submissions with six career submission wins; Minev attempts none and has two. The one figure that separates them is takedown defence, where Minev's 65% is twenty-five points better than Prado's 40% — the worst defensive number on Prado's sheet.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Francisco

Artur

Six points, and it is a fair summary of two fighters with real finishing ability and serious defensive problems. Neither man is technically polished; both are dangerous.

Cardio

Fight time · rounds contested · pace curve

Francisco

Artursmall sample

Prado's, and it is his clearest edge. He averages 13:11 per Octagon appearance and has been to five full fifteen-minute fights — four of which he lost, but all of which he finished on his feet. Minev's UFC average fight time is 7:51 from a single bout that ended in a knockout, though his five-round majority decision at Fury FC 106 shows the tank is there at a lower level.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Francisco

0.0

Artur

Nine points against a four-point model line. The projection is much narrower than the gauges because Prado has lost four consecutive fights and has one win in six Octagon appearances, and no rate line expresses that.

Metric	Francisco	Artur
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:11 (UFC)	7:51 (UFC)small sample
Pace Tier	3.68 SLpM at 44% accuracy	1.02 SLpM at 62% accuracysmall sample
Striking Defence	54%	26% — worst at either event
Takedown Defence	40%	65%
Career Decisions	0 of 12 wins	1 of 7 wins

Archetype Base Rate

Octagon-Seasoned Finisher 52%48% Low-Volume Counter Finisher

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 52/48 rests on an output advantage of more than three to one, twenty-eight points of striking defence, five scored Octagon bouts against zero, and 13:11 of average fight time against 7:51. It is capped almost to nothing by four consecutive decision losses, a 40% takedown defence, eighteen points of accuracy the other way, and an opponent whose worst numbers all come from a single bad night.

Francisco PradoArtur Minev

Lightweight

· 52 fighters

Stat	Francisco	Francisco rank	Div avg	Artur rank	Artur
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.68	—	~4.21	—	1.02
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	44%	—	~45%	—	62%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	54%	—	~57%	—	26%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.31	—	~4.02	—	3.57
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.76	—	~1.71	—	0.00
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	40%	—	~64%	—	65%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.76 (6 career subs)	—	~0.49	—	0.00 (2 career subs)
Career Finish Rate	100% (12 of 12)	—	—	—	86% (6 of 7)
UFC Record	1-5	—	—	—	0-1
Scored UFC Rounds	13	—	—	—	0
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:11	—	—	—	7:51

Statistical Verdict
Prado sits slightly below the lightweight baseline on output and accuracy, three points below on striking defence, and twenty-four points below it on takedown defence — the worst number on his sheet, though his opponent attempts no takedowns. Minev is seventeen points above baseline on accuracy and catastrophically below it on output and striking defence, and every row on his side is flagged. The bottom of the table is the honest read: thirteen scored Octagon rounds against zero, and one UFC win between the two of them in seven appearances.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Artur Minev

Control Time per Round (sec)

Francisco Prado

Output is flat and unremarkable across the fight — 20.6, 21.8 and 18.0 significant strikes landed — while accuracy falls steadily from 49.5% to 41.4% to 39.3%.
A committed leg-kicker: 26.2%, 37.9% and 22.2% of his landed strikes go low, the second-highest leg share at UFC Vegas 122.
Control time is modest but consistent at 45, 48 and 53 seconds a round, with ground share peaking at 20.4% in the opening round.
His knockdown average of 0.20 arrives only in the first round; he has not scored a knockdown in a second or third round in five scored Octagon bouts.

Artur Minev

No round-by-round row exists for Artur Minev: his May 2026 Octagon debut postdates the database snapshot, so nothing above is estimated.
What the verified eight-bout log shows instead: five of his six finishes landed in the opening round, including a 28-second knockout of Cristobal Ibanez and a first-round stoppage of Shane Keefe.
He has been past the second round once in his career — a five-round majority decision over Junior Maranhao at Fury FC 106 in July 2025.
The UFC.com line of 1.02 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy behind 26% striking defence comes from one fight that ended in a second-round knockout loss.

Critical Insight
One modest table and one empty one, and the modest one is not flattering either. Prado does the same thing every round and gets less accurate doing it — 49.5% falling to 39.3% — which is a reasonable description of a fighter who has lost four consecutive decisions. Minev's contribution is a career log of five first-round finishes and one UFC appearance that produced the lowest output figure at either October event. The fight is therefore a race between a man who cannot close and a man who has only ever closed early, and neither profile suggests a comfortable fifteen minutes for anybody.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

FranciscoArtur · N/A

82%Distance—

7%Clinch—

11%Ground—

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceFrancisco owns it

3.68 significant strikes per minute against 1.02, into a 26% striking defence — the worst figure at either event

Pocket / ExchangesArtur owns it

Four career knockouts and 62% accuracy against a man who has never been stopped in the UFC but absorbs 4.31 a minute

ClinchFrancisco owns it

Prado holds 45-53 seconds of control a round against a fighter with no offensive wrestling at all

GroundFrancisco owns it

Six career submissions against two and 0.76 attempts per fifteen against zero — though Minev defends 65% of takedowns to Prado's 40%

Path to Victory

Francisco Prado

Out-throw a man who lands one significant strike a minute, and finally win a decision.

Why they win

More than three times the output

3.68 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.02 — the lowest figure of any fighter at either October event.

Twenty-eight points of striking defence

54% against 26%, the worst defensive figure at either card.

Thirteen scored Octagon rounds against zero

Five UFC bouts against one, and 13:11 of average fight time against 7:51.

A 100% career finish rate

Twelve wins, twelve finishes, six knockouts and six submissions, nine of them in the opening round.

Six career submissions against two

And 0.76 attempts per fifteen minutes against zero.

Never stopped in the UFC

Five Octagon bouts, four decision losses, and no finish against him.

The gameplan

1
Force the pace from the opening bell
He out-throws Minev by more than three to one. The only way that stops mattering is if he stops doing it.
2
Invest in the legs early
37.9% of his second-round offence already goes there, and it is the fastest way to take away a counter-fighter's timing.
3
Do not stand still in the pocket
Five of Minev's six finishes came in an opening round at 62% accuracy. Volume from movement, not from the centre.
4
Use the fence
Minev attempts zero takedowns and Prado holds 45-53 seconds of control a round. The clinch is free territory.
5
Finally take a decision
He has never won one in twelve professional victories and has lost four straight. Against 1.02 strikes a minute, the bar has never been lower.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is dropped, his own 40% takedown defence is the risk — he should clinch rather than scramble, because Minev has no offensive wrestling.

Path to Victory

Artur Minev

Land the one shot. Five of his six career finishes came in the opening round.

Why they win

Eighteen points of striking accuracy

62% against 44% — he throws almost nothing and almost all of it lands.

Five of six career finishes in Round 1

Including a 28-second knockout of Cristobal Ibanez and a first-round stoppage of Shane Keefe.

Twenty-five points of takedown defence

65% against 40%, which is the worst number on his opponent's sheet.

Two years younger

22 against 24, with nine fewer professional fights of mileage.

Prado has lost four straight

All by decision, and he has not finished anyone since July 2023.

A five-round majority decision on his record

Over Junior Maranhao at Fury FC 106 — the distance is not unfamiliar to him.

The gameplan

1
Wait for the entry
62% accuracy on very low volume is a counter-fighter's line. Prado walks forward and drops his hands in the third round at 39.3% accuracy.
2
Check the leg kicks
26-38% of Prado's offence goes low. If the lead leg survives ten minutes, the counter is still there in the third.
3
Raise the output above one a minute
He cannot win rounds at 1.02 significant strikes per minute against anyone who throws. Even doubling it changes the cards.
4
Use the 65% sprawl
Prado attempts 0.76 takedowns per fifteen with six career submissions. Staying upright removes his second-best weapon.
5
Go early
Five of his six career finishes landed in an opening round, and Prado has not been finished in the UFC — but he has also never faced this accuracy.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If two rounds pass without a counter landing, the third is the one where Prado's accuracy is lowest — that is the frame to spend everything in.

Danger Zone

How Francisco Prado loses

He is caught by the 62%-accuracy counter that has ended five fights in an opening round.
He out-lands Minev three to one and loses a fifth consecutive decision anyway, on the cleaner shots.
His 40% takedown defence turns out to matter after all, in a scramble he did not expect.

Danger Zone

How Artur Minev loses

He throws one significant strike a minute for fifteen minutes and loses every round without ever being hurt.
His 26% striking defence meets a leg-kick investment of nearly 38% in the second round and the legs go.
He is stopped for the second consecutive fight, three months after Tommy Gantt did it.

The lowest output at either event

One Point Zero Two

Artur Minev lands 1.02 significant strikes per minute — the lowest figure of any of the forty-six fighters analysed across UFC 332 and UFC Vegas 122 — behind 26% striking defence, which is also the worst. Both derive from a single Octagon appearance that ended in a second-round knockout, so both should be read as directional. They are still extraordinary.

1.02 / 26%

output and striking defence

Prado's paradox

Twelve Wins, Twelve Finishes, Zero Decisions

Francisco Prado has never won a professional fight on the scorecards — twelve wins, six knockouts and six submissions, nine of them in the opening round. He has also lost four consecutive fights, every one of them by decision. He wins by finishing and loses by being out-pointed, and he has not finished anyone since July 2023.

0 / 4

career decision wins and consecutive decision losses

The honest framing

Two Fighters, Two Ugly Runs

Prado is 1-5 in the UFC with four straight decision losses. Minev is 0-1, knocked out in the second round of his debut by Tommy Gantt, who fights on the Noche UFC card four weeks before this bout. Between them they have one Octagon win in seven appearances, and it was in July 2023.

Minev's odd profile

Sixty-Two Percent Accuracy on Almost Nothing

Minev lands 62% of the significant strikes he throws — eighteen points better than his opponent — and throws barely one a minute. That combination usually describes a counter-fighter waiting for a single opening, and his record supports it: five of his six finishes landed in the opening round, one of them in 28 seconds.

62%

Minev's striking accuracy

Prado's hole, and why it may not matter

Forty Percent Takedown Defence

Prado defends only 40% of takedowns, twenty-four points below the lightweight baseline and the worst number on his sheet. Artur Minev attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes and has two career submissions. The hole is real; the man in front of him is unlikely to find it.

The Five-Round Clock

Francisco Prado danger windowArtur Minev danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The counter window

Five of Minev's six career finishes landed here, including a 28-second knockout of Cristobal Ibanez. Prado's first round is his most accurate at 49.5% with a 0.20 knockdown average and 45 seconds of control — and nine of his twelve career wins ended in this frame too.

Critical Insight
A front-loaded clock on both sides. Five of Minev's six career finishes landed in an opening round — including one in 28 seconds — and nine of Prado's twelve wins ended there too. After the first five minutes the fight becomes something neither man has done well: Prado has lost four consecutive decisions and Minev has one career decision win, on a regional card. Prado's leg-kick share peaks at 37.9% in the second round and his accuracy bottoms out at 39.3% in the third, which is roughly when a 62%-accuracy counter-fighter would want to be throwing.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Artur Minev lands 1.02 significant strikes per minute and defends 26% — the lowest output and worst striking defence of any of the forty-six fighters analysed across both October cards, both from a single Octagon appearance he lost.

Francisco Prado has twelve wins and twelve finishes with zero career decision victories — and has lost four consecutive fights, every one of them on the scorecards.

Model: Prado 52% / Minev 48%, conviction 3/10 — one of the flattest distributions at either event, with no bucket above 29%.

100 Simulated Fights

Prado Decision — 29%Minev KO/TKO — 22%Prado KO/TKO — 14%Minev Decision — 20%Prado Submission — 9%Minev Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Francisco Prado gold · Artur Minev orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The output gap

3.68 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.02, the lowest figure of any fighter at either October event.

Striking defence

54% against 26% — the worst defensive figure at either card, though it comes from one fight.

Prado's four straight decision losses

He has never won a professional decision and has not finished anyone since July 2023.

Eighteen points of accuracy

Minev's 62% against 44%, and five of his six career finishes in an opening round.

Octagon seasoning

Thirteen scored UFC rounds against zero, and 13:11 of average fight time against 7:51.

Both men are coming off losses

Prado has lost four in a row; Minev was knocked out in the second round of his debut three months ago.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Prado Out-Works Him

He lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute against 1.02, invests 26-38% of it in the legs, and takes a decision he has never actually won in twelve professional victories. Against a fighter throwing barely one strike a minute, out-working him is not a high bar.

Scripted outcomes for Francisco Prado vs Artur Minev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Francisco Prado win probability

14%

29%

KO/TKODECSUB

Six career knockouts and nine first-round finishes, aimed at a man stopped in the second round of his UFC debut three months ago. Held down because Prado has not finished anyone since July 2023.
The largest bucket on the page and the strangest — he has never won a professional decision in twelve victories, and he has lost four straight. Against 1.02 significant strikes per minute, it is still the likeliest outcome.
Six career submissions and 0.76 attempts per fifteen minutes against two and zero. Real, and it runs into a 65% takedown defence.

Artur Minev win probability

22%

20%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest finishing bucket in the bout. Four career knockouts, five of six finishes in an opening round including a 28-second stoppage, at 62% accuracy against a man absorbing 4.31 significant strikes per minute.
His five-round majority decision over Junior Maranhao says the distance is available to him — but 1.02 significant strikes per minute is not a number that wins rounds against anyone who throws.
Two career submissions, both on the regional circuit, and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes. A scramble outcome against a 40% takedown defence.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Artur

Francisco

29-28 Prado

Minev takes the first on counters; Prado takes the last two on volume and leg kicks

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

29-28 Minev

Two rounds decided by the cleaner single shots

Live — 62% accuracy is a scoring argument even at low volume

30-27 Prado

The output gap decides every round

Requires Minev to fight exactly as he did on debut

Moneyline

Francisco Prado

Not posted

Artur Minev

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Francisco Prado -108 from 52% and Artur Minev -108 from 48% — model outputs, not quotes, and about as close to a true pick'em as this card produces. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Minev by knockout at 22% is the single largest finishing bucket in this bout and the outcome most likely to be under-priced — the market will fixate on 1.02 significant strikes per minute and miss that five of his six career finishes landed in an opening round at 62% accuracy. On the other side, Prado by decision at 29% is the structural read, and it asks him to do the one thing he has never done in twelve professional victories. There is no obviously wrong price here.

Conviction

3/10

A coin flip between two fighters with broken recent records, and the conviction rating reflects that honestly. Prado owns more than three times the output, twenty-eight points of striking defence, thirteen scored Octagon rounds against zero, and a 100% career finish rate — and he has lost four consecutive decisions and has not finished anybody since July 2023. Minev owns eighteen points of accuracy, five first-round finishes in six, and a 65% sprawl against Prado's 40% — and every alarming number on his sheet comes from one Octagon appearance that ended in a knockout loss three months ago. Lean: Francisco Prado.

What backs the lean

More than three times the output: 3.68 significant strikes per minute against 1.02.
Twenty-eight points of striking defence — 54% against 26%, the worst at either event.
Thirteen scored Octagon rounds against zero, and five UFC bouts against one.
A 100% career finish rate with nine first-round wins and six career submissions.
Never stopped in the UFC across five Octagon appearances.
A leg-kick investment reaching 37.9% in the second round against a counter-fighter who needs his timing.

What limits it

Eighteen points of striking accuracy — 62% against 44%.
Five of six career finishes in an opening round, including a 28-second knockout.
65% takedown defence against Prado's 40%, the worst number on his sheet.
Prado has lost four consecutive fights and has never won a professional decision.
Two years younger with nine fewer professional fights of mileage.
Every one of Minev's worst figures comes from a single bad Octagon night.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-two of one hundred simulations Francisco Prado wins, and in twenty-nine of those he wins on the scorecards — which would be the first professional decision victory of his career. The mechanism is simply volume: 3.68 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.02, with a leg-kick investment reaching 37.9% in the second round, against the worst striking defence of any fighter at either October event. Fourteen more end by knockout and nine by submission, from a man with a 100% career finish rate who has not finished anyone in three years.

In the other forty-eight, the counter lands. Artur Minev throws barely one significant strike a minute and connects with 62% of them, and five of his six career finishes came in an opening round — one of them in 28 seconds. Twenty-two of those simulations are his knockouts and twenty are decisions, because a fighter who defends 65% of takedowns against a 40% sprawl does not have to do very much to stay in a close fight.

Both men arrive damaged: one has lost four straight on the cards and the other was knocked out in the second round of his debut three months ago. Every number that makes Minev look unbackable comes from that single night, and every number that makes Prado look reliable has coexisted with a 1-5 Octagon record. On October 10 at the Apex — Prado 52% / Minev 48%, conviction 3/10.

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