Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Giga Chikadze — Featherweight fighter

Giga Chikadze

“Ninja”
15W6L
Rangy Kickboxer
VS
Joanderson Brito — Featherweight fighter

Joanderson Brito

19W5L1D
Chain Wrestler

19 seconds of control per fight against 288

FeatherweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Brito averages 288 seconds of control per three rounds; Chikadze averages 19. Stuff the shot and 59% striking defence plus length writes the cards. Land one entry a round and the kickboxer never starts. Model 54–46 Brito; −400 is a steep price on a 43% striking defence.

Paths that change the fight

  • Giga ChikadzeStuff the first shot and start kicking. Against a man who defends 43% of what is thrown at him, fifteen minutes of distance striking is both the decision path and the knockout path.
  • Joanderson BritoLand one entry a round. Ninety seconds of control per round for three rounds is 288 seconds of a 900-second fight, and it is the difference between a submission finish and a card he wins without landing ten strikes.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Brito's 43% striking defence — all three of his UFC losses were fifteen-minute decisions he lost upright.
  • Chikadze is four inches taller with two inches of reach and 59% striking defence, plus six career knockdowns dealt.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Giga Chikadze

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
46%
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Reference quote+319 (BetOnline)

Joanderson Brito

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
54%
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Reference quote-400 (BetOnline)
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The cleanest kickboxer-versus-wrestler problem on the UFC 331 prelims, and the control clock is the whole argument. Across an average three rounds Giga Chikadze accumulates 19 seconds of control time — 8, 3 and 8 by round — while Joanderson Brito accumulates 288, at 92, 106 and 90. The Georgian lands 86% of his first-round offence at distance and defends 59% of what comes back. The Brazilian shoots 3.23 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 67% accuracy into a takedown defence of 65%. Model: Brito 54% / Chikadze 46%, conviction 4/10.

Giga Chikadze
Attribute
Joanderson Brito
38
Age
31
6'0"+4" Chikadze
Height
5'8"
74"+2" Chikadze
Reach
72"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tbilisi, Georgia
Origin
Santa Helena, Brazil
Sep 28, 2019
Octagon Debut
Jan 15, 2022
Karate-based kickboxing at range
Fighting Style
Chain wrestling into submissions

Four inches of height and two of reach, and both belong to the older man. Chikadze is 6'0" with a 74-inch span in a division where that is a genuine structural weapon; Brito is 5'8" with 72 inches and no interest in the outside. Seven years separate them — 38 against 31 — and the seven years matter most in the phase Brito wants, because sprawling on a man who shoots 3.23 times per fifteen minutes is the least forgiving cardio task in featherweight. Neither fighter has a published leg reach, which is an unusual blind spot here given that 22.9% of Chikadze's first-round strikes land on the legs.

Venue Factor
Three rounds cuts both ways and neither man gets the schedule he would choose. Chikadze's output climbs every round he fights — 14.9 significant strikes in the first, 17.9 in the second, 19.0 in the third — so fifteen minutes truncates a curve that was still rising. Brito's finishing equity is the opposite shape: five of his six UFC wins ended inside two rounds, three of them in the first. In a standard Octagon with room to circle, the Georgian's length is worth more than it would be against the fence; the question is whether he ever gets to use it.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Giga Chikadze fighting in the Octagon

Giga Chikadze

Pro Record
15-6-0
UFC Record
8-4 across twelve bouts since 2019
Streak
Three straight defeats — Allen, Onama, Vallejos
Finish Rate
3 of 8 UFC wins by KO/TKO; 5 by decision
Avg Fight Time
12:52
Chin · QuestionedSOS · Ranked featherweightRangy kickboxer, counter power

Seven years in the Octagon that split cleanly in half at January 2022. Everything before it was a 7-0 UFC run of body kicks and counters that peaked with a third-round stoppage of Edson Barboza and a 63-second knockout of Cub Swanson. Then Calvin Kattar out-pointed him over five rounds in his one main event. He answered that with nineteen months out and a unanimous-decision win over Alex Caceres in Singapore in August 2023 — his last victory — and has lost every fight since: a decision to Arnold Allen at UFC 304, a decision to David Onama, and a second-round knockout by Kevin Vallejos in December 2025. His measured profile still has real teeth — 59% striking defence, 65% takedown defence, six knockdowns dealt and two absorbed — but 42% striking accuracy is the drag, and at 38 the losses have started to arrive by stoppage rather than on the cards.

Joanderson Brito landing a punch in the Octagon

Joanderson Brito

Pro Record
19-5-1
UFC Record
7-3 across ten bouts since 2022 (nine of them in the available statistical sample)
Streak
Two straight wins — a first-round ninja choke of Jordan Leavitt (Jun 2026) and a decision over Isaac Thomson
Finish Rate
5 of 6 UFC wins inside the distance — 3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
9:20
Chin · Durable — no UFC knockout lossSOS · Mid-tier UFCChain wrestler with a submission finish

A career built entirely on one question: does the takedown land. He lost his UFC debut to Bill Algeo in January 2022 — on the same card as Kattar vs Chikadze — then went five straight, four of them inside the distance: Andre Fili in 41 seconds, Lucas Alexander by first-round submission, Westin Wilson in under three minutes, Jonathan Pearce by second-round submission, and Jack Shore by doctor's stoppage at UFC 301. The three defeats are the tell. Algeo, Pat Sabatini and William Gomis all took him fifteen minutes and all won on the cards, because his striking numbers do not survive a kickboxing match: 2.38 significant strikes landed per minute at 50% accuracy and 43% striking defence. The UFCStats grappling line has jumped — 3.23 takedowns per fifteen at 67% accuracy, 1.2 submission attempts, 57% takedown defence. He rebounded with a decision over Isaac Thomson in December 2025 and a first-round ninja choke of Jordan Leavitt in June 2026.

Giga Chikadze
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Joanderson Brito
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Giga Chikadzesignature weapons

Distance Kicking AttackCub Swanson (R1, 1:03), Jamey Simmons (R1, 3:51) and Edson Barboza (R3, 1:44) — 86% of his first-round offence lands at distance and 22.9% of it goes to the legs
×3
Deep-Water VolumeOutput climbs every round — 14.9, 17.9, 19.0 significant strikes — and reached 28 and 32 in the championship rounds against Kattar. Five of his eight UFC wins are decisions
×5

Joanderson Britosignature weapons

Chain Takedown Entry3.23 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 67% accuracy — a jump from the older 2.49 pass — producing 92 seconds of control in an average first round
×3
Submission from TopLucas Alexander (R1, 2:02) and Jonathan Pearce (R2, 3:54) — 1.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes on the UFCStats line
×2

Giga Chikadze

L
Kevin Vallejos
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (1:29)
UFC FN: Royval vs. Kape — Dec 13, 2025
L
David Onama
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Machado Garry vs. Prates
L
Arnold Allen
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 — Jul 27, 2024
W
Alex Caceres
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie — Aug 26, 2023
L
Calvin Kattar
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5
UFC FN: Kattar vs. Chikadze — Jan 15, 2022
W
Edson Barboza
KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (1:44)
UFC FN: Barboza vs. Chikadze — Aug 28, 2021
Pattern

Vallejos did something different in December 2025: he stopped him in 1:29 of the second, the first time Chikadze had been finished in the Octagon. What has not changed is the win column's texture — when he wins, he wins at range, and three of his eight UFC victories ended by knockout.

Joanderson Brito

W
Jordan Leavitt
Submission — Ninja choke

Opponent context: ufc

RR1 (4:19)
UFC FN: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jun 6, 2026
W
Isaac Thomson
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Royval vs. Kape — Dec 13, 2025
L
Pat Sabatini
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN: Emmett vs. Murphy
L
William Gomis
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
W
Jack Shore
TKO — Doctor's Stoppage

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (3:35)
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Pattern

Read his last five as two different fighters. Against Jack Shore and Jonathan Pearce, the takedown chain landed early and both nights ended in the second round. Against Pat Sabatini and William Gomis, it did not, and both nights ended on the cards against him — the Gomis loss by split decision. The Leavitt submission in June 2026 is the reminder that the mat threat ends fights in a minute or four. The Isaac Thomson win in December 2025 is the useful middle case: a full fifteen minutes, won on control rather than damage, with 90 seconds of control time in an average third round and only 12.5 significant strikes landed in it. He does not out-strike people. He out-positions them.

Giga Chikadze

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Joanderson Brito

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Read that way the reputations invert. Chikadze, the knockout kickboxer, has won five of eight in the Octagon on the cards. Brito, the grinder, has finished five of six inside two rounds and only once needed the judges. the editorial assessment's career-wide count for Brito tells the same story at larger scale: 8 knockouts, 7 submissions, 2 decisions.

Common Opponents

OpponentGigaJoanderson
Calvin Kattar (style proxy)L· UD5 (Jan 2022)—(blueprint for Brito)
The only deep-water data either man has. Chikadze landed 28 and 32 significant strikes in the fourth and fifth rounds — but at 40% and 35% accuracy, and with 0% of his fifth-round strikes going to the legs. Brito lost his UFC debut to Bill Algeo on that same January 2022 card.
Pat Sabatini / William Gomis (style proxy)—(blueprint for Chikadze)L· UD3 and L · SD3
Brito's two most recent defeats both came from technical featherweights who denied the takedown and made him kickbox for fifteen minutes. That is precisely the fight Chikadze is built to sell.
Kevin Vallejos (style proxy)L· KO/TKO R2 (1:29)—(blueprint for Brito)
December 2025, and the first stoppage defeat of Chikadze's UFC career. At 38 with a 65% takedown defence, the durability question is no longer theoretical.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Giga
0
Joanderson

Chikadze wins this on defence and threat rather than volume: 59% striking defence and six career knockdowns dealt against Brito's 43% defence and one knockdown. His 42% accuracy is the drag — and Brito lands cleaner at 50%.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Giga
0
Joanderson

The widest gap on the page and the reason the model favours the shorter man. Brito shoots 3.23 times per fifteen minutes at 67% accuracy and attempts 1.2 submissions; Chikadze shoots 0.18 times at 33% and attempts 0.2. The Georgian's 65% takedown defence is the only thing standing between the two numbers.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Giga
0
Joanderson

A point and a half. On measured technique this is close to a coin flip — one man is above average in exactly one phase, and so is the other.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Giga
0
Joanderson

Chikadze's average fight lasts 12:52 to Brito's 9:20 and his output rises 14.9 to 19.0 across three rounds — but the relevant cardio task is sprawling at 38, not kickboxing. Brito's control time holds at 92, 106 and 90 seconds per round with no decay.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Giga
0
Joanderson

Two composite points, a 54-46 model line, and a conviction of 4/10. This is a lean, not a read.

MetricGigaJoanderson
Avg Fight Time12:529:20
Pace TierBelow average — 3.75 SLpMLow — 2.38 SLpM
Control Time / Round8s · 3s · 8s92s · 106s · 90s
R3/R1 Output128% (19.0 vs 14.9 sig)142% (12.5 vs 8.8 sig)small sample
Champ Rounds28 sig at 40% in R4, 32 at 35% in R5 — one round each, vs Kattarsmall sampleNone — no UFC round beyond the third

Archetype Base Rate

Rangy Kickboxer 46%54% Chain Wrestler

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 54-46 lean is the editorial assessment's, retained after its August verification pass, and rests on a single structural argument: a fighter who shoots 3.23 times per fifteen minutes at 67% accuracy against a fighter who defends 65% of takedowns and generates 0.18 of his own.

Giga ChikadzeJoanderson Brito

Featherweight

· 78 fighters
StatGigaGiga rankDiv avgJoanderson rankJoanderson
SLpM3.75—~4.73—2.38
Str Acc42%—~49.9%—50%
Str Def59%—~55.0%—43%
SApM3.47—~3.93—2.28
KD (career)6 / 2—~1.46 avg—1 / 0
Damage Ratio1.08—~1.20—1.04
TD/150.18—~1.89—3.23
TD Acc33%—~40.6%—67%
TD Def65%—~67.8%—57%
Sub/150.2—~0.56—1.2
Avg Fight Time12:52———9:20
Statistical Verdict
Two specialists, and the table shows exactly where each one lives. Brito's UFCStats grappling line has jumped to 3.23 takedowns per fifteen at 67% accuracy with 1.2 submission attempts — elite offensive wrestling columns, all in the same phase. Chikadze holds 59% striking defence, six career knockdowns dealt and two absorbed, and nowhere else above the divisional middle. The uncomfortable row for the Georgian is takedown defence: 65% sits below the 67.8% division average against 67% accuracy coming at him. The uncomfortable row for Brito is striking defence at 43% — if this becomes a kickboxing match, he is among the most hittable featherweights on the list.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Giga Chikadze

  • The leg-kick signature is real and it is front-loaded: 22.9% of his first-round strikes land on the legs, then 12.3% in the second, 17.5% in the third. In the two championship rounds he has fought it fell to 7.1% and then to zero — the kicks are the first thing to go.
  • His accuracy falls every round — 48%, 43%, 39% — while his volume rises, 14.9 to 17.9 to 19.0. He throws more and hits less as the fight ages.
  • He does not touch anyone: 8, 3 and 8 seconds of control per round, and 0.0% of his first-round offence lands in the clinch. This is a pure outside fighter, with 86-97% of his strikes landing at distance in every round.
  • The knockdown threat is a third-round phenomenon — 0.44 per round in the third against 0.17 in the first and zero in the second across ten rounds.

Joanderson Brito

  • Control time is his product and it does not decay: 92 seconds in an average first round, 106 in the second, 90 in the third — 288 seconds across a fifteen-minute fight, against Chikadze's 19.
  • His striking is a distant second job. 8.8 significant strikes in the first round, 9.0 in the second, 12.5 in the third — under half of what the Georgian lands in each.
  • The ground share collapses as fights go long: 34.2% of his first-round offence lands on the mat, 11.1% in the second, 6.0% in the third. He wins the grappling early or he ends up kickboxing.
  • His own leg-kick share climbs the opposite way — 29.1%, 37.0%, 40.0% — which is what a fighter throws when he is at distance and not getting inside. The third-round row rests on four rounds of data.
Critical Insight
The two profiles are photographic negatives. Chikadze's first round is 86% distance striking with 8 seconds of control and 22.9% leg kicks; Brito's is 45.6% distance, 34.2% ground and 92 seconds of control. Whoever imposes his own opening five minutes has effectively chosen the fight. The detail that cuts against Brito is what happens if he does not: his ground share falls to 6.0% by the third and his leg-kick share climbs to 40%, which is the profile of a wrestler who has been forced to kickbox — and he does that at 43% striking defence.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Giga

Head
56%
Body
26%
Legs
18%

Joanderson

Head
51%
Body
14%
Legs
35%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

GigaJoanderson
90%Distance64%
1%Clinch16%
9%Ground20%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceGiga owns it

86-97% of Chikadze's strikes land at distance with 59% striking defence against Brito's 43%

Pocket / ExchangesGiga owns it

Six career knockdowns dealt for Chikadze against one for Brito, and 0.44 per third round on the RxR line

ClinchJoanderson owns it

20.3% of Brito's first-round offence lands in the clinch; Chikadze's clinch share is 0.0% in the first and 1.7% in the second

GroundJoanderson owns it

3.23 TD/15 at 67% accuracy and 1.2 Sub/15 against 0.18 and 0.2 — the most one-sided phase on the page

Path to Victory

Giga Chikadze

Stuff the first shot and start kicking. Against a man who defends 43% of what is thrown at him, fifteen minutes of distance striking is both the decision path and the knockout path.

Why they win
01
Four inches and 59% striking defence

6'0" against 5'8", 74 inches of reach against 72, and 59% striking defence on the UFCStats line. Brito has to cross that gap on every single entry.

02
Brito's striking defence is 43%

Against a division average of ~55%. If the takedowns fail, the Brazilian is standing in front of a career kickboxer with one of the worst defensive rates in the weight class.

03
Real knockdown equity, and it arrives late

Six career knockdowns dealt (two absorbed), and 0.44 per third round specifically — his most dangerous five minutes are the last ones.

04
The output curve rises

14.9 significant strikes in the first, 17.9 in the second, 19.0 in the third, and 28 and 32 in the two championship rounds he has fought. Deep water has never been where he loses.

05
Brito loses when it stays standing

All three of his UFC defeats — Algeo, Sabatini, Gomis — went the full fifteen minutes and all three went to the judges against him.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Kick the legs from bell one

    22.9% of his first-round output already goes there. Against a 5'8" wrestler who has to close four inches of height every entry, taking the legs is taking the takedown.

  2. 2
    Never stand square, never back to the fence

    0.0% of his first-round offence lands in the clinch, which means the clinch is not a place he can work — it is a place he loses. Circle out on every failed shot.

  3. 3
    Punish the entry, don't just stuff it

    Brito shoots 3.23 times per fifteen minutes. Each failed attempt is a free counter against a man whose striking defence is 43%.

  4. 4
    Make it the third round

    0.44 knockdowns per third round, 19.0 significant strikes, and a Brito ground share that collapses to 6.0% by then. Every minute upright is a minute in his favour.

  5. 5
    Get up immediately, at any cost

    The fight is not lost from the bottom, it is lost by staying there. Ninety seconds of control a round is what beats him; ten is not.

Path to Victory

Joanderson Brito

Land one entry a round. Ninety seconds of control per round for three rounds is 288 seconds of a 900-second fight, and it is the difference between a submission finish and a card he wins without landing ten strikes.

Why they win
01
3.23 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 67%

A jump from the older 2.49 pass, against a takedown defence of 65% that sits below the 67.8% division average.

02
288 seconds of control against 19

92, 106 and 90 seconds per round, with no decay. Chikadze's own control line reads 8, 3, 8 — he has no mechanism for taking the fight back.

03
1.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes

Two UFC submission wins on the résumé. Chikadze's submission offence is 0.2 and his defence against it has never been meaningfully tested in the Octagon.

04
Seven years younger against a three-fight skid

31 against 38, and the older man has lost three in a row — the last of them a second-round knockout by Kevin Vallejos in December 2025, the first stoppage defeat of his UFC career.

05
He absorbs almost nothing

2.28 significant strikes absorbed per minute on the UFCStats line. Low output, but low exposure — he is not in the exchanges long enough to be hurt in them.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Shoot early and shoot often

    34.2% of his first-round offence lands on the ground and his opening-round control averages 92 seconds. The first five minutes are his best five minutes — 3 of his 6 UFC wins ended in the first round.

  2. 2
    Enter behind the clinch, not from distance

    20.3% of his first-round strikes land in the clinch against Chikadze's 0.0%. The tie-up is the safest bridge across a four-inch height gap.

  3. 3
    Hunt the back

    1.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and two UFC submission finishes, both from top position. Chikadze has 0.2 Sub/15 and no reason to have practised the defence.

  4. 4
    Do not accept a kickboxing round

    43% striking defence and 8.8 significant strikes landed per first round. Every round spent at range is a round on the Sabatini-Gomis path.

  5. 5
    Bank control, ignore the damage stats

    12.5 significant strikes in his average third round is enough when it comes with 90 seconds of control. His decision bucket is only 16 of 100, but this is how it gets there.

Danger Zone

How Giga Chikadze loses

  • The first takedown lands inside ninety seconds and the fight becomes the Jonathan Pearce night — control, then a back-take, then a submission before the second round ends.

  • He stuffs four shots and still loses the round, because 92 seconds of control and a handful of ground strikes score and his 14.9 significant strikes at 48% do not look like domination to a judge.

  • At 38, on the back of a knockout loss, he gets hurt in a scramble he would have survived at 32 — the Vallejos pattern, with a grappler on top of it.

Danger Zone

How Joanderson Brito loses

  • The first two entries fail against a 65% defence and he is standing at range, at 43% striking defence, in front of a man who lands 22.9% of his first-round strikes on the legs.

  • The Sabatini and Gomis scripts repeat: fifteen minutes upright, 8.8 significant strikes in the first round, and a card he loses without ever being in danger.

  • He gets caught in the third, where Chikadze's knockdown rate is 0.44 per round — the one window where volume, accuracy and fatigue all point the wrong way for him.

The fight's central axis

Nineteen Seconds Against Two Hundred and Eighty-Eight

Across a full three rounds, Giga Chikadze's average control time totals 19 seconds — 8, 3 and 8 by round. Joanderson Brito's totals 288 — 92, 106 and 90. That is 32% of a fifteen-minute fight spent in a position where Chikadze's four-inch height edge, his 74-inch reach and his 59% striking defence all mean nothing.

288s
Brito control time per three rounds vs Chikadze's 19
Where the model's lean comes from

The 65% Takedown Defence Tax

Sixty-five percent reads solid until you place it: below the 67.8% division average, against an opponent whose takedown accuracy is 67% and whose volume has jumped to 3.23 attempts per fifteen minutes. Chikadze does not have to stuff everything, but the arithmetic says he cannot stuff enough.

3.23
Brito takedowns per 15 min at 67% accuracy — UFCStats line
A five-round warning in a three-round fight

The Leg Kicks Go First

Chikadze's leg-kick share by round reads 22.9%, 12.3%, 17.5% — then 7.1% in the fourth and 0.0% in the fifth against Calvin Kattar. His signature weapon is the first thing fatigue takes. In a three-round bout he never reaches that cliff, which is quietly the best structural news the Georgian gets on this page.

22.9%
Chikadze first-round strikes landed to the legs
The underdog's whole case

Brito Cannot Kickbox

43% striking defence and 2.38 significant strikes landed per minute on the UFCStats line. All three of his UFC losses were fifteen-minute decisions he lost upright. If the takedowns fail twice, the fight Chikadze wants is the fight Brito is worst at.

The honest symmetry

Both Men Have Been Solved Before

Chikadze has lost three straight — Allen, Onama and a second-round knockout by Kevin Vallejos in December 2025 — and is 1-4 across four and a half years. Brito has lost three, every one of them a decision against a fighter who refused to grapple. Neither man is being asked a new question here; both have already answered it wrong at least once.

The Five-Round Clock

Giga Chikadze danger windowJoanderson Brito danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Brito's best five minutes

92 seconds of average control, 34.2% of his offence on the ground, and three of his six UFC wins ended here. Chikadze's counter-window is the 8 seconds of control and 0.17 knockdowns he averages in an opening round.

Critical Insight
The clock runs backwards for Chikadze. His danger builds — output rises every round and his knockdown rate more than doubles by the third — while Brito's grappling equity is highest at the start and visibly decays: 34.2% ground share in the first, 6.0% by the third. If the fight is still standing and even after ten minutes, the last five belong to the older man. Getting there is the entire problem.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Across three average rounds Joanderson Brito accumulates 288 seconds of control time. Giga Chikadze accumulates 19. That is the fight in two numbers.

2

Chikadze's route is equally clear: Brito's 43% striking defence on the UFCStats line, and all three of his UFC defeats were fifteen-minute decisions he lost standing up.

3

Model: Brito 54% / Chikadze 46%, conviction 4/10 — a lean on wrestling math, capped by four inches of height, 59% striking defence and a knockdown rate that doubles in the third round.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Brito Submission — 22%Brito KO/TKO — 16%Brito Decision — 16%Chikadze KO/TKO — 22%Chikadze Decision — 20%Chikadze Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Giga Chikadze gold · Joanderson Brito orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The control-time gap

288 seconds against 19 across three average rounds. It is the single largest measured separation between these two men and it is what carries Brito's 22-point submission bucket, the biggest on the page.

Takedown defence at 65%

Below the division mean of 67.8% and facing 67% accuracy at 3.23 attempts per fifteen minutes. Enough entries land that the grappling phase gets contested.

Brito's 43% striking defence

This is why Chikadze's knockout bucket is 22 — the joint-largest single outcome in the simulation — despite the Georgian only landing 3.75 significant strikes a minute at 42% accuracy.

Four straight losses and a first stoppage

Chikadze is 38 and has lost to Kattar, Allen, Onama and, in December 2025, by second-round knockout to Kevin Vallejos. The fight records's streak field reads -3; the fight log reads four.

Neither man wins on the cards easily

Chikadze's decision bucket is 20 and Brito's is 16 — the two smallest paths for each fighter combined make up only 36 of 100. Both profiles push toward a finish, from opposite directions.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Back-Take

Brito closes inside ninety seconds, gets the entry, and the fight never returns to distance. Ninety-two seconds of control becomes a back-take becomes a finish, the way it did against Jonathan Pearce in the second round. The single largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Giga Chikadze win probability
0%
22%
20%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Joint-largest bucket on the page. Six career knockdowns dealt rising to 0.44 per third round on the RxR line, against a 43% striking defence. Three of his eight UFC wins ended by knockout.

  • Twenty points, and more than Brito's own decision bucket. His output rises every round and his average fight lasts 12:52 — but the judges have to prefer 19 significant strikes to 90 seconds of control.

  • Four points. He has 0.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no UFC submission win — these are scramble outcomes, not a path.

Joanderson Brito win probability
0%
16%
16%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Ground-and-pound rather than a knockout punch: one career knockdown dealt, but three of his six UFC wins ended by KO/TKO and all of them came from position rather than from range.

  • Sixteen points, his smallest path and the honest one. He lands 8.8 significant strikes in an average first round — winning cards on control alone is possible, as it was against Isaac Thomson, but it is not comfortable.

  • His largest bucket and the largest single outcome in the simulation. 1.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes on the UFCStats line, with two UFC finishes, against an opponent whose own submission offence is 0.2.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Joanderson
R2
Giga
R3
Giga
29-28 Chikadze
Brito takes the first on control, then cannot land another entry
The most likely card — his decision bucket is 20 to Brito's 16
29-28 Brito
Two rounds of control time outweigh a late Chikadze surge
The competitive version, and common
30-27 Chikadze
The takedowns never land and it is a kickboxing match from the first bell
The clean version of the underdog script

Model and price

Giga Chikadze

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
46%
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Reference quote+319 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+92.7%
Edge vs no-vig market
+23.0 pp

Joanderson Brito

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
54%
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Reference quote-400 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-32.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
-23.0 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Giga Chikadze

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Joanderson Brito

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

4 value leans4 fair9 avoid
Double Chance — Giga Chikadze by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+375+20.9ppGiga Chikadze by Points+750+8.2ppGiga Chikadze by KO/TKO/DQ+550+6.6ppHow Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ+210+5.7pp
Full prop table (17)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Double Chance — Giga Chikadze by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+375BetOnline21.1%42%2.38+20.9+99.5%Value lean
Giga Chikadze by Points+750BetOnline11.8%20%5.00+8.2+70.0%Value lean
Giga Chikadze by KO/TKO/DQ+550BetOnline15.4%22%4.55+6.6+43.0%Value lean
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ+210BetOnline32.3%38%2.63+5.7+17.8%Value lean
Under 1.5 Rounds+140BetOnline41.7%45%2.22+3.3+8.0%Fair price
Win Inside Distance — Giga Chikadze+325BetOnline23.5%26%3.85+2.5+10.5%Fair price
Goes the Distance — Yes+160BetOnline38.5%36%2.78-2.5-6.4%Fair price
Goes the Distance — No-200BetOnline66.7%64%1.56-2.7-4.0%Fair price
Over 1.5 Rounds-165BetOnline62.3%55%1.82-7.3-11.7%Avoid / overpriced
Joanderson Brito R1 by Submission+375BetOnline21.1%12%8.33-9.1-43.0%Avoid / overpriced
Joanderson Brito by KO/TKO/DQ+275BetOnline26.7%16%6.25-10.7-40.0%Avoid / overpriced
Joanderson Brito by Points+275BetOnline26.7%16%6.25-10.7-40.0%Avoid / overpriced
Point Spread — Joanderson Brito -3.5-210BetOnline67.7%54%1.85-13.7-20.3%Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission+140BetOnline41.7%26%3.85-15.7-37.6%Avoid / overpriced
Joanderson Brito by Submission+150BetOnline40.0%22%4.55-18.0-45.0%Avoid / overpriced
Double Chance — Joanderson Brito by Submission or Decision-160BetOnline61.5%38%2.63-23.5-38.3%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Joanderson Brito-450BetOnline81.8%38%2.63-43.8-53.6%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Chikadze +319 (+22pp) is the headline dog. Chikadze by points at +750 (+8.2pp) and by KO at +550 (+6.6pp) split his 42-point combined finish/decision equity. Brito by submission at +150 is the market's worst number — 40% implied vs 22% model. Note the book conflict: Chikadze by points is +750 in Method of Victory but +650 in Method + Round. Double Chance Chikadze TKO/Dec at +375 (+20.9pp) is the broad underdog play.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A wrestling-math lean and nothing more. Two composite points, 288 seconds of control against 19, and 3.23 takedowns per fifteen at 67% accuracy against a 65% takedown defence — all of it capped by four inches of height, a 59% striking defence and an opponent whose knockout bucket is exactly as large as the favourite's submission bucket. Lean: Joanderson Brito.

What backs the lean

  • 3.23 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 67% accuracy — a jump from the older 2.49 pass — against a 65% takedown defence.

  • 288 seconds of control across three average rounds against Chikadze's 19, with no decay by round.

  • 1.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and two UFC submission finishes, against 0.2 and none.

  • Seven years younger, and the older man has lost three straight including a second-round knockout in December 2025.

What limits it

  • Brito's 43% striking defence — all three of his UFC losses were fifteen-minute decisions he lost upright.

  • Chikadze is four inches taller with two inches of reach and 59% striking defence, plus six career knockdowns dealt.

  • The Georgian's knockdown rate doubles to 0.44 in the third round, exactly where Brito's ground share collapses to 6.0%.

  • Chikadze's decision bucket (20) is larger than Brito's (16) — if the takedowns stall, the cards lean the wrong way for the favourite.

Final Assessment

This is a phase-ownership fight with almost no overlap, and the numbers make the exchange rate explicit. Joanderson Brito owns the ground by every measure available — 3.23 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 67% accuracy, 1.2 submission attempts, 288 seconds of control across three rounds. Giga Chikadze owns open space by almost as wide a margin: 86-97% of his strikes land at distance, 59% striking defence against Brito's 43%. There is no middle ground where both men are comfortable, which is why the model produces a 54-46 line and a conviction of only four.

What tips it is the direction of travel. Chikadze is 38 and has lost three in a row, the last of them by second-round knockout to Kevin Vallejos in December 2025 — the first time anyone had stopped him in the Octagon. Brito is 31 and won his last. But the counter-argument is not sentimental either: Brito's three UFC defeats all look identical, and they all look like the fight Chikadze is trying to have. Bill Algeo, Pat Sabatini and William Gomis kept it standing for fifteen minutes and all three won.

The honest read: back Brito to land the entries, and understand that his 54% is built almost entirely on the first ten minutes. If the fight is upright and level going into the third, the numbers flip — 0.44 knockdowns per third round for the Georgian, a ground share down to 6.0% for the Brazilian, and a 40% leg-kick share that says he has been forced to fight the one way he cannot.

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