PRELIMS · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Michael Aswell Jr. — Featherweight fighter

Michael Aswell Jr.

“The Texas Kid”
11W5L
Volume Pressure
…
VS
JooSang Yoo — Featherweight fighter

JooSang Yoo

“Zombie Jr.”
9W1L
Accurate Distance
…

Fifty-two strikes in one round against a thirty-seven-strike career

FeatherweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two men who only know one gear, throwing at each other for fifteen minutes. Michael Aswell Jr. is 25, lands 7.60 significant strikes per minute — the division averages 4.73 — and hits 42% of them while absorbing 7.03. JooSang Yoo is 32, throws less at 6.36 but lands 58% of it and absorbs 4.99, with two inches of reach to hold the gap. Neither wrestles: Aswell attempts 0.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Yoo attempts none at all. This is a kickboxing negotiation, and the entire question is whether output or accuracy wins it.

Michael Aswell Jr.
Attribute
JooSang Yoo
25
Age
32
5'8"+1" Aswell
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+2" Yoo71"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Not published
Team
Not published
May 31, 2025
Octagon Debut
Jun 7, 2025
16:42 · 2 bouts
Octagon Time (database)
5:49 · 2 bouts
High-volume pressure striking
Fighting Style
Accurate distance striking, leg kicks

An inch of height to Aswell, two inches of reach to Yoo, and seven years between them. That reach gap is the only physical edge either man can actually use, and Yoo uses it: 94.1% of everything he has landed in the Octagon landed at distance, with zero ground strikes of his own and a single clinch strike in two fights. Aswell is the shorter-armed man who has to come forward to work, and the database shows what that costs — he has absorbed 145 significant strikes in 16:42 of cage time. Neither man has a published leg reach, which matters here because more than a third of Yoo's entire Octagon output has gone to the legs.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the format that suits Aswell, and it is the format neither man has much evidence in. Aswell has been to a decision once in the Octagon and his output climbed every round of it — 24 significant strikes landed in the first, 42 in the second, 52 in the third. Yoo has never seen a third round in the UFC; he has never seen a full second one. His two Octagon appearances lasted 28 seconds and 5:21. The deep water on this card is entirely unmapped for the man the model favours.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Michael Aswell Jr. fighting in the Octagon

Michael Aswell Jr.

Pro Record
11-5-0
UFC Record
1-3 across four bouts since May 2025
Streak
Two straight decision losses — Riley, then Bolaños
Finish Rate
55% — six KO/TKO wins from eleven, zero submissions
Avg Fight Time
8:21 across the two bouts the database holds
Chin · Never finishedSOS · Developing UFC featherweightHigh-volume pressure striker

Fifteen months in the UFC and a record that reads worse than his tape does. He arrived in May 2025 and lost a unanimous decision to Bolaji Oki at lightweight, a fight the database preserves in full and which explains his whole career: Aswell threw 309 significant strikes and landed 118 of them, and Oki threw 303 and landed 136. He was out-landed by eighteen strikes across fifteen minutes and lost every card. Five months later he moved to featherweight and knocked out Lucas Almeida in 1:42, dropping him twice and finishing with ten of sixteen ground strikes — the only Octagon win of his career, and proof the power is real. Two more decision losses followed in 2026. The pattern is now four fights old and completely consistent: he never gets stopped, and he never quite wins the count.

JooSang Yoo reacting in the Octagon

JooSang Yoo

Pro Record
9-1-0
UFC Record
1-1 — a 28-second TKO win and a second-round TKO loss
Streak
One defeat — TKO to Daniel Santos, October 2025, and no bout since
Finish Rate
56% — four KO/TKO and one submission from nine wins
Avg Fight Time
2:55 — total Octagon time of 5:49
Chin · Finished once — R2, 0:21SOS · Thin sampleAccurate distance striker

Nine wins, one loss, and a UFC career that has lasted five minutes and forty-nine seconds. He debuted at UFC 316 in June 2025 and finished Jeka Saragih in 28 seconds — six significant strikes thrown, six landed, one knockdown, done. Four months later at UFC 320 he took a catchweight bout with Daniel Santos and had the better first round on the numbers, landing 28 of 49 including ten of eleven leg kicks, before conceding a takedown and 1:18 of control. Twenty-one seconds into the second he was dropped and stopped under nine ground strikes. That is the whole file: a fighter who looks excellent for as long as the fight stays at range, and who has already shown what happens when it does not.

Michael Aswell Jr.
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
JooSang Yoo
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Michael Aswell Jr.signature weapons

Knockdown Sequence into Ground-and-PoundTwo knockdowns and ten of sixteen ground strikes finished Lucas Almeida in 1:42 — six KO/TKO wins across an 11-5 career
×6
Escalating Volume24 then 42 then 52 significant strikes landed across rounds one to three against Bolaji Oki, off 125 attempts in the third alone
×5

JooSang Yoosignature weapons

Opening-Bell Left HandSix of six significant strikes landed, one knockdown, Jeka Saragih finished in 28 seconds at UFC 316
×4
Low KickTen of eleven leg kicks landed on Daniel Santos — 35.3% of his entire Octagon output has gone to the legs
×1

Michael Aswell Jr.

L
Bolaños
Decision
RR3
UFC — 2026 (not in database)
L
Riley
Decision
RR3
UFC — 2026 (not in database)
W
Lucas Almeida
KO/TKO — ground and pound
RR1 (1:42)
UFC FN: Oliveira vs. Gamrot — Oct 11, 2025
L
Bolaji Oki
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Blanchfield vs. Barber — May 31, 2025
Pattern

One win and three losses, and all three losses went to the judges. That is the tell and the compliment at once: nobody in the UFC has been able to hurt him, and nobody has needed to. The Oki fight is the template — he threw 84 significant strikes in the opening round and landed 24 of them, a 28.6% round, then found his range at 42% for the rest and still finished eighteen strikes behind. The two 2026 defeats to Riley and Bolaños are not in the database, so their round-by-round detail is unavailable; the analysis file records both as decisions, which makes it five career losses and five trips to the cards.

JooSang Yoo

L
Daniel Santos
KO/TKO
RR2 (0:21)
UFC 320 — Oct 4, 2025
W
Jeka Saragih
KO/TKO
RR1 (0:28)
UFC 316 — Jun 7, 2025
Pattern

Two Octagon fights, one finish in each direction, and 5:49 of total evidence. The Saragih win is as clean as a debut gets — six for six on significant strikes, a knockdown, and the referee waving it off at 28 seconds. The Santos loss is the warning: he was winning the striking exchanges, landing ten of eleven leg kicks, and the fight still ended the moment it left the feet. He has faced two takedown attempts in his career and stopped one of them.

Michael Aswell Jr.

Win Methods
Wins by Round

JooSang Yoo

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The two charts are deliberately on different scopes, because that is where the honest data sits. The donuts are career-wide, using the method counts the analysis file publishes: Aswell six knockouts and five decisions from eleven wins with no submissions, Yoo four knockouts, four decisions and one submission from nine. The round bars are Octagon-only, because the rounds of their regional finishes are not published anywhere — and Octagon-only, both men have exactly one win, and both came by first-round TKO, at 1:42 and 0:28. The difference the donuts hide is on the losing side: Aswell's five defeats are all decisions, Yoo's one defeat is a knockout.

Common Opponents

OpponentMichaelJooSang
Bolaji Oki (style proxy)L· UD3 (May 2025) — out-landed 136 to 118—(blueprint for Yoo)
An accurate striker who never hurt Aswell and beat him anyway, banking 36 body strikes against Aswell's nine
Daniel Santos (style proxy)—(blueprint for Aswell)L· TKO R2 0:21 (Oct 2025)
Lost the striking numbers in round one, took Yoo down, then finished him with nine of eleven ground strikes early in the second
03

The Numbers

Composites, division context and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Michaelsmall sample
0
JooSangsmall sample

Aswell wins the volume column and loses the other three. 7.60 landed per minute against 6.36, but 42% accuracy against 58%, 52% defence against 56%, and 7.03 absorbed against 4.99. The weighting rewards efficiency, so the five points go to Yoo.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Michaelsmall sample
0
JooSangsmall sample

A two-point gap between two men who barely grapple. Aswell attempts 0.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 25% and defends 55%; Yoo attempts none and defends 50%. Both are far under the division's 1.89 takedowns and 67.8% defence.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Michaelsmall sample
0.0
JooSangsmall sample

One and a half points. On measured technique this is as close as a fight gets, and the entire margin is Yoo's accuracy surviving Aswell's output.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Michaelsmall sample
0
JooSangsmall sample

The one line Aswell wins. He has been fifteen hard minutes and his output rose the whole way — 24, 42, 52. Yoo has 5:49 of Octagon time in total and was stopped 21 seconds into the only second round he has seen.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Michaelsmall sample
0.0
JooSangsmall sample

Half a composite point, and a 53-47 model line that matches it. This is the closest fight on the UFC 331 prelims by the numbers, and the conviction of 3/10 says so.

MetricMichaelJooSang
Avg Fight Time8:21 (2 bouts in database)small sample2:55 (2 bouts)small sample
Pace TierElite volume — 7.60 SLpM vs a 4.73 division averagesmall sampleHigh volume — 6.36 SLpMsmall sample
R3/R1 Output217% — 52 sig in R3 against 24 in R1small sampleNo R3 data — never been past 0:21 of R2small sample
Slow Start %Slow — 24 of 84 (28.6%) in his one full opening roundsmall sampleFast — 34 of 57 (60%) across two opening roundssmall sample
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

High-Volume Pressure Striker 47%53% Accurate Distance Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 53-47 lean is the analysis file's own read — accuracy, absorption and two inches of reach against raw output — and it sits inside the site model's original Yoo 52 band rather than departing from it.

Michael Aswell Jr.JooSang Yoo

Featherweight

· 78 fighters
StatMichaelMichael rankDiv avgJooSang rankJooSang
SLpM7.60—~4.73—6.36
Str Acc42%—~49.9%—58%
Str Def52%—~55.0%—56%
SApM7.03—~3.93—4.99
Knockdowns2 in 16:42—~1.46 per 15 min—1 in 5:49
TD/150.24—~1.89—0.00
TD Acc25%—~40.6%—0%
TD Def55%—~67.8%—50%
Sub/150.00—~0.56—0.00
Avg Fight Time8:21 (database bouts)———2:55
Statistical Verdict
Both men sit in the same strange corner of the division: enormous striking volume, no wrestling whatsoever, and defensive numbers that do not keep up. Aswell throws 61% more than the average featherweight and absorbs 79% more. Yoo throws 34% more and absorbs 27% more. Neither reaches the division's 1.89 takedowns per fifteen minutes or its 67.8% takedown defence — Yoo's 50% is the worst number on the page, and the man who exploited it, Daniel Santos, finished him with it. Nobody is out-grappling anybody here. The whole fight is the accuracy column: 58% against 42%.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for Michael Aswell Jr.

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for JooSang Yoo

Control Time per Round (sec)

Michael Aswell Jr.

  • His output climbs and never stops climbing: 24 landed of 84 thrown in the first round, 42 of 100 in the second, 52 of 125 in the third. That third round is the single busiest round either man has fought in the UFC.
  • The accuracy climbs with it — 28.6% in that opening round, then 42% and 41.6% — but it never gets near the 58% Yoo carries.
  • He hunts the head almost exclusively: 85.2% of his first-round strikes, 83.3% of his second, 78.8% of his third. Body work is an afterthought at 5.6% in the first.
  • The 18.5% ground share and both knockdowns come from one place — the Almeida finish, where he landed ten of sixteen ground strikes in 1:42. Strip that fight out and he is a pure distance fighter.

JooSang Yoo

  • Two opening rounds, 34 significant strikes landed of 57 thrown — 60% accuracy, the best number on this page, and one knockdown.
  • 35.3% of everything he has landed went to the legs, including ten of eleven low kicks against Daniel Santos. Aswell's leg share across three rounds is 9.3%, 2.4% and 1.9%.
  • 94.1% at distance, 2.9% in the clinch, 2.9% on the ground. He has no offence anywhere but the outside, and no takedown attempts at all.
  • The second-round row is a 21-second round — the time it took Santos to drop him and finish. Three strikes in 21 seconds is not a pace, and the row should be read as an ending rather than a sample.
Critical Insight
The two profiles answer each other almost too neatly. Aswell's shape is a fighter who gets better as the fight gets longer and worse as it gets more accurate — his volume nearly doubles from first round to third while his hit rate stalls in the low forties. Yoo's shape is a fighter who is devastating for as long as the fight lasts, and whose entire dataset ends the first time somebody puts him on the mat. Aswell landed 52 significant strikes in one round against Bolaji Oki; JooSang Yoo has landed 37 in his whole UFC career.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

MichaelJooSang
93%Distance97%
1%Clinch1%
6%Ground2%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJooSang owns it

58% accuracy at +2" reach, and 94.1% of Yoo's Octagon offence landed at distance

Pocket / ExchangesMichael owns it

7.60 SLpM, 125 attempts in a single round, and two knockdowns in 16:42

ClinchEven

Almost no clinch offence on either side — 1.9% of Aswell's rounds, 2.9% of Yoo's

GroundMichael owns it

Aswell's only UFC win was ten of sixteen ground strikes; Yoo was finished under nine of eleven

Path to Victory

Michael Aswell Jr.

Make it long and make it ugly. His output rises every round and nobody in the UFC has come close to finishing him — if the fight is still standing at the ten-minute mark, the busiest man in the building is the one who has never been hurt.

Why they win
01
Seven years younger

25 against 32, with the athletic runway to throw 125 significant strikes in a third round — which he has already done once.

02
Nobody has finished him

Five career losses, five decisions. Yoo has one loss and it ended at 0:21 of the second round under ground strikes.

03
The volume is genuinely elite

7.60 significant strikes per minute against a featherweight average of 4.73 — 61% more output than the division standard.

04
Real knockout pop

Six KO/TKO wins from eleven, and two knockdowns in 16:42 of Octagon time. Lucas Almeida was down twice and finished in 1:42.

05
He has fought a third round

Yoo has 5:49 of total UFC cage time. Aswell has been fifteen minutes and got stronger doing it.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Start faster than 28.6%

    He landed 24 of 84 in the opening round against Oki and lost the fight by eighteen strikes. A first round at his second-round rate would have flipped it.

  2. 2
    Go to the body

    Oki beat him with 36 body strikes to his nine. Aswell has spent 85%, 83% and 79% of his rounds head-hunting — the body is the one target that makes a 32-year-old's third round worse.

  3. 3
    Take the centre and shrink the cage

    Yoo lands 94.1% of his offence at distance and has one clinch strike in two Octagon fights. Every foot of space removed is a percentage point off his 58%.

  4. 4
    Follow the hurt man down

    The only UFC win on his record came from two knockdowns and ten ground strikes. Yoo has been stopped exactly that way, under nine of eleven ground strikes at 0:21 of a second round.

  5. 5
    Make him fight a third round

    Yoo has never seen one. Aswell's third round against Oki was 52 landed of 125 — the busiest round either man has fought anywhere in the Octagon.

Path to Victory

JooSang Yoo

Keep it at the end of the two-inch reach advantage and keep hitting 58%. Every minute the fight stays at kicking range is a minute the cleaner striker banks, and the leg kicks make the third round Aswell's problem rather than his weapon.

Why they win
01
Sixteen points of accuracy

58% against 42%. Over a fifteen-minute firefight between two men who each throw around 100 times a round, that is the entire fight in one column.

02
He absorbs two fewer strikes a minute

4.99 against 7.03. Aswell takes 79% more damage than the average featherweight; Yoo takes 27% more.

03
Two inches of reach and the discipline to use it

94.1% of his Octagon output landed at distance, with a single clinch strike in two fights. He does not get drawn in.

04
The leg kicks nobody answers

Ten of eleven landed against Daniel Santos, and 35.3% of his career Octagon output to the legs. Aswell's legs took 9.3%, 2.4% and 1.9% shares of his own offence — he does not kick, and he has not had to check many.

05
Twenty-eight seconds

Six strikes thrown, six landed, one knockdown, one finish. The ceiling is a real thing, even if the sample is not.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab and kick from the two inches

    The published plan, and the numbers back it: 58% accuracy at range against a man who has to close ground to work.

  2. 2
    Chop the lead leg early

    Ten of eleven low kicks landed on Santos. Aswell's answer to leg kicks is unmeasured because almost nobody has thrown them at him, and his own leg output is under 10% in every round.

  3. 3
    Do not trade in the pocket

    Aswell has two knockdowns in 16:42 and six career knockouts. Yoo's one defeat came the moment the fight got physical, and 4.99 absorbed per minute only holds while the range does.

  4. 4
    Sprawl and stand up immediately

    50% takedown defence is the worst number on this page. Aswell only attempts 0.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes, but he attempts them when someone is hurt — which is exactly when Yoo cannot afford one.

  5. 5
    Bank rounds, do not chase the finish

    31 of his 53 win-shares are decisions, the largest single bucket in the simulation. The 28-second version exists, but the cards are the likelier road.

Danger Zone

How Michael Aswell Jr. loses

  • The Oki fight happens again. He throws 300 times, lands 38% of them, is never in trouble, and loses all three rounds to a man who threw less and landed more.

  • The leg kicks land at 90% the way they did on Santos, his lead leg is gone by the second round, and the volume he needs to win the count simply is not available in the third.

  • He walks onto the shot that ended Jeka Saragih in 28 seconds. His 52% striking defence is below the division's 55%, and coming forward is the only gear he has.

Danger Zone

How JooSang Yoo loses

  • It becomes the firefight Aswell wants — 100 attempts a round, no space to reset — and 4.99 absorbed per minute stops being a number he controls.

  • The Santos ending repeats. He has faced two takedown attempts and stopped one, and Aswell's only Octagon win came from putting a hurt man on the floor and landing ten of sixteen ground strikes.

  • Fifteen minutes is unmapped territory. His whole professional case in the UFC is 5:49 long, and a third round against the busiest striker on the prelims is not where you want to find out.

The fight's central axis

Fifty-Eight Against Forty-Two

JooSang Yoo lands 58% of his significant strikes; Michael Aswell Jr. lands 42%. Both throw far more than the featherweight average of 4.73 per minute. When two volume strikers meet and neither can wrestle, the accuracy column decides the count — and sixteen points is a wide column.

58% / 42%
Striking accuracy — the entire margin of this fight
The sample-size problem, stated plainly

One Round Against One Career

Aswell landed 52 significant strikes in the third round against Bolaji Oki. Yoo has landed 37 in his entire UFC career, across 5:49 of cage time. Every rate statistic on the favourite's side of this page is extrapolated from less than six minutes of Octagon evidence.

5:49
Yoo's total UFC cage time — the whole basis of his 6.36 / 58% / 4.99 line
Why the durable man keeps losing

The Decision-Loss Paradox

All five of Aswell's career defeats are decisions, and the database preserves one of them in full: he threw 309 significant strikes against Bolaji Oki, landed 118, and lost to a man who landed 136 off 303. Being impossible to hurt has not once stopped him being out-pointed.

136 – 118
Oki out-landed Aswell over fifteen minutes and won every card
The finish-threat curve

Both Ceilings Are First-Round Ceilings

Every Octagon win either fighter owns came in round one by TKO — Aswell over Lucas Almeida at 1:42 after two knockdowns, Yoo over Jeka Saragih at 0:28 off six strikes thrown and six landed. Neither man has ever finished anyone in the UFC after the five-minute mark.

Where the upset actually lives

Nobody Wrestles, and One Man Has Been Punished For It

Aswell attempts 0.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Yoo attempts none. But Yoo's takedown defence is 50% against a division average of 67.8%, and the last man to test it — Daniel Santos — took him down, got 1:18 of control and finished him early in the second. Aswell's only UFC win was ten of sixteen ground strikes on a hurt opponent.

The Five-Round Clock

Michael Aswell Jr. danger windowJooSang Yoo danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The accurate man's window

Yoo has landed 60% across two opening rounds and finished Saragih in 28 seconds. Aswell's one full opening round was 24 of 84 — a 28.6% start he cannot afford to repeat.

Critical Insight
The clock runs in opposite directions. Yoo's edge is at its widest in the first five minutes, when his 60% accuracy meets an opponent who historically starts at 28.6%, and it narrows every round as Aswell's output climbs from 24 to 42 to 52. If Yoo has not banked the first two rounds clearly, he is walking into the only part of the fight that neither his tape nor his statistics have ever covered.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

JooSang Yoo lands 58% of his significant strikes and absorbs 4.99 a minute; Michael Aswell Jr. lands 42% and absorbs 7.03. Neither man wrestles — Aswell attempts 0.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes and Yoo attempts none — so the accuracy column is the whole fight.

2

Aswell has never been finished in five defeats, and his output climbs every round: 24 significant strikes landed in the first against Bolaji Oki, 42 in the second, 52 in the third. Yoo has 5:49 of total UFC cage time and has never fought a third round.

3

Model: Yoo 53% / Aswell 47%, conviction 3/10 — the closest call and the thinnest evidence base on the UFC 331 prelims.

100 Simulated Fights

Yoo Decision — 31%Yoo KO/TKO — 20%Yoo Submission — 2%Aswell Decision — 28%Aswell KO/TKO — 18%Aswell Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Michael Aswell Jr. gold · JooSang Yoo orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Accuracy over output

58% against 42% between two fighters who both throw well above the divisional average. Yoo's decision bucket (31 of 100) is the single largest outcome on the page, and it is built entirely on winning the count without winning the volume.

The durability floor

Aswell has never been finished in five career defeats, which is why his own decision bucket sits at 28 — nearly level with the favourite's. He does not need to hurt Yoo to be in the fight at the fifteen-minute mark.

Finishability, both ways

Yoo has been stopped once and stopped somebody in 28 seconds; Aswell has six career knockouts and two Octagon knockdowns. The knockout buckets are 20 and 18 — nearly symmetrical, and the reason conviction stops at 3.

Sample size

Yoo's whole rate line reproduces from 5:49 of UFC cage time; Aswell's two most recent fights are not in the database at all. This is the least statistically supported matchup on the UFC 331 prelims.

The unmapped third round

Aswell's output climbs 24 to 42 to 52 across three rounds. Yoo has never fought past 0:21 of a second round in the Octagon. That asymmetry is the underdog's clearest structural argument.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Cleaner Fifteen Minutes

Yoo holds the range, chops the lead leg the way he chopped Daniel Santos, and takes the count 58% to 42% without ever matching the volume. Aswell throws more, lands less, and loses another decision — the Bolaji Oki script with a Korean accent.

Scripted outcomes for Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang Yoo — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Michael Aswell Jr. win probability
0%
18%
28%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six career knockouts, two Octagon knockdowns in 16:42, and a 1:42 stoppage of Lucas Almeida. Against 50% takedown defence and a man who has already been finished on the mat, the hurt-then-follow path is a real one.

  • His largest bucket, and it rests on durability rather than dominance: he has been fifteen minutes and got busier doing it, and Yoo has never been past 0:21 of a second round.

  • One point. He has zero career submission wins and 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes — this is a scramble outcome, not a path.

JooSang Yoo win probability
0%
20%
31%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Four career knockouts and a 28-second Octagon finish off six strikes thrown. Aswell's 52% striking defence is below the division's 55%, and he has to walk forward to work.

  • The largest bucket on the page. Sixteen points of accuracy and two inches of reach across fifteen minutes is exactly how Bolaji Oki beat Aswell without ever hurting him.

  • Two points. One career submission win and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes on the rates — an opportunistic outcome rather than a plan.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
JooSang
R2
JooSang
R3
Michael
29-28 Yoo
Accuracy takes the first ten minutes, Aswell's escalating volume takes the third
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Aswell
The output wins the count once the leg kicks stop landing
The competitive alternative, and close behind
30-27 Yoo
58% holds for fifteen minutes and Aswell never adjusts
Live if the lead leg goes early

Moneyline

Michael Aswell Jr.
Not posted
JooSang Yoo
Not posted

No BetOnline line has been published for this bout yet and none is invented here. Converting the model's 53-47 split with no vig gives fair prices of JooSang Yoo -113 and Michael Aswell Jr. +113; the analysis file quotes a vig-inclusive pair of Yoo -113 / Aswell -105. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the UFC 331 prelims.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Yoo by decision is the lean the analysis flags, and the simulation agrees: 31 of his 53 win-shares, the largest single bucket on the page. The live dog side is Aswell by knockout at 18 — if the market prices Yoo as anything more than a slim favourite off a 5:49 sample, the underdog's inside-the-distance number is where the model disagrees. Grappling props should be avoided entirely: between them these two have one career submission win and 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes each.
Conviction
0
3/10

A half-point separates their overall composites and six points separate the model's two fighters. The lean is accuracy, absorption and two inches of reach — held to three out of ten because the favourite's entire statistical case is 5:49 long and he has already been finished once. Lean: JooSang Yoo.

What backs the lean

  • 58% striking accuracy against 42%, between two men who both throw well above the divisional average.

  • 4.99 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 7.03, with 56% striking defence against 52%.

  • Two inches of reach and the discipline to use it — 94.1% of his Octagon offence landed at distance.

  • Nine wins and one defeat against eleven and five, with a 28-second Octagon finish showing the ceiling.

What limits it

  • His whole rate line derives from 5:49 of UFC cage time across two bouts; he has never fought a third round.

  • He has been finished — dropped and stopped at 0:21 of the second by Daniel Santos — while Aswell's five defeats are all decisions.

  • 50% takedown defence against a divisional 67.8%, and Aswell's only Octagon win came from putting a hurt man down and landing ten of sixteen ground strikes.

  • At 32 against 25, he faces an opponent whose output climbed from 24 to 42 to 52 across the one three-round fight in his file.

Final Assessment

This is the closest fight on the UFC 331 prelims and the thinnest evidence base on the card, which is an uncomfortable combination. Half a composite point separates them. Six percentage points separate the model's two fighters. And the favourite's entire statistical identity — 6.36 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy, 4.99 absorbed, 56% defence — reproduces exactly from five minutes and forty-nine seconds of Octagon time, because that is all the Octagon time he has.

What tips it is the one thing the database shows clearly. When Michael Aswell Jr. fought fifteen minutes against Bolaji Oki, he threw 309 significant strikes and landed 118 of them, and lost every round to a man who threw fewer and landed 136. That is the shape of all five of his career defeats: never hurt, never stopped, always out-counted. JooSang Yoo at 58% accuracy with two inches of reach is precisely the profile that has been beating him.

The honest read: Yoo should edge a decision, and there are two ways it goes wrong for him. One is 0:21 of a second round, the way Daniel Santos ended him. The other is the third round, where Aswell landed 52 of 125 against Oki and Yoo has literally no data at all. Take the cleaner striker at a slim price, and do not pretend this is anything more than a slim price.

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