Five rounds change the cost of every entry
Tsarukyan is the editorial selection, 64–36, with decision-based positional scoring the largest outcome share.
Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen are the repeatable route; Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and first-blitz power are the reversal. Over five rounds the cost of failed entries decides it. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan — the market at −288 is ahead of that line.
Measurements as listed in UFC profiles. Profile measurements are not official event weigh-in results.
Venue FactorScheduled for 5 five-minute rounds at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
Dan Hooker
Submission · 11/22/25 · UFC Fight Night
Charles Oliveira
Decision · 4/13/24 · UFC 300
Beneil Dariush
KO/TKO · 12/2/23 · UFC on ESPN
Joaquim Silva
KO/TKO · 6/17/23 · UFC on ESPN
Damir Ismagulov
Decision · 12/17/22 · UFC Fight Night
Michael Chandler
KO/TKO · 6/14/26 · UFC Freedom 250
Rafael Fiziev
KO/TKO · 1/31/26 · UFC 325
Benoît Saint Denis
Submission · 9/6/25 · UFC Fight Night
King Green
KO/TKO · 3/8/25 · UFC 313
James Llontop
Decision · 11/16/24 · UFC 309
Published career statistics and the limits of the sample
Career aggregates describe past opposition. They are not an opponent-adjusted prediction of this fight. Rates for athletes with no completed UFC bouts are not shown.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Mauricio Ruffy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landed / min | 3.85 | 4.19 |
| Significant strikes absorbed / min | 1.8 | 3.83 |
| Striking accuracy | 50% | 57% |
| Striking defence | 55% | 59% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 3.26 | 0 |
| Takedown defence | 75% | 87% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.1 | 0 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.31 | 1.54 |
Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. Takedown accuracy remains unverified.
⚠ R4, R5: single-fight sample for Arman Tsarukyan
⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Mauricio Ruffy
Critical InsightHistorical round averages reflect available UFC data. These are observations against previous opponents, not a projection of this fight. A single observed late round cannot establish a cardio advantage.
Arman
Mauricio
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen are the repeatable route; Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and first-blitz power are the reversal. Over five rounds the cost of failed entries decides it. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan — the market at −288 is ahead of that line.
The five-round format changes what must be explained in Tsarukyan–Ruffy. Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes gives him a credible way to change the phase; Ruffy's 87% recorded takedown defence makes the quality and sequencing of those entries central. The two figures cannot be directly combined into a probability because they come from different opponents and situations. The important distinction is between defending one attempt in open space and defending connected attempts after strikes, fence pressure or a scramble.
Tsarukyan's strongest route is to make wrestling a sequence rather than an isolated shot. An initial entry can be useful even without a takedown if it produces grips, moves Ruffy toward the fence or sets up a second action. That does not make every failed attempt productive: a long reset after eating a counter leaves Ruffy with the more consequential exchange. The assessment should track where each sequence ends, how much offence is produced and whether Tsarukyan can re-enter without repeatedly paying the same defensive cost.
Ruffy's path is built around preserving enough space to make those entries visible and punishable. His higher published knockdown rate supports treating clean counters as a material threat, but not assigning a knockout percentage from that rate. The best defensive exchange ends with a balanced exit or immediate offence, rather than a prolonged clinch that lets Tsarukyan continue working. Ruffy can also lose the tactical argument while technically defending takedowns if each defence leaves him pinned and unable to produce useful attacks.
Five rounds offer up to twenty-five minutes for those sequences to recur. They do not automatically turn Tsarukyan into a late-round favourite, and they do not imply Ruffy must finish early. Efficiency is the relevant question: how much energy is spent obtaining or denying useful position, and what does each athlete get in return? Without verified individual-round observations at comparable distances, a precise fourth- or fifth-round advantage would go beyond the available evidence. The previous shorter-distance assessment should not be carried over unchanged.
The editorial selection is Tsarukyan at 64% against Ruffy at 36%, specifically for five rounds. Tsarukyan has a repeatable route through wrestling and phase changes, supported by 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes and lower published striking absorption. The estimate gives that route an advantage without treating every entry as successful or giving him an automatic championship-round bonus. At 64%, Tsarukyan's fair decimal price is 1.56. A five-point judgement change gives 1.69 at 59% or 1.45 at 69%. Ruffy's corresponding fair price is 2.78 at the central 36% estimate. These scenarios illustrate assumption risk; they are not statistical confidence bounds.
Set up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.
Arman Tsarukyan lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.8. Those figures describe previous exchanges; maintaining that balance requires controlling range against this opponent.
The published profile lists 3.26 takedowns and 0.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Position after the entry matters: an attempt rate does not measure damaging control or the chance of a finish.
Set up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.
Prepare for Mauricio Ruffy's opposing route: Keep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.
Keep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.
Mauricio Ruffy lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.83. Those figures describe previous exchanges; maintaining that balance requires controlling range against this opponent.
The published profile lists 0 takedowns and 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Position after the entry matters: an attempt rate does not measure damaging control or the chance of a finish.
Keep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.
Prepare for Arman Tsarukyan's opposing route: Set up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.
The fight follows Mauricio Ruffy's route: Keep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.
Ruffy's recorded takedown defence and knockdown threat can make each failed entry expensive. More available minutes do not guarantee Tsarukyan a late advantage.
The fight follows Arman Tsarukyan's route: Set up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.
This is an editorial five-round handicap, not a calibrated simulation.
Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen are the repeatable route; Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and first-blitz power are the reversal. Over five rounds the cost of failed entries decides it. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan — the market at −288 is ahead of that line.
Ruffy's recorded takedown defence and knockdown threat can make each failed entry expensive. More available minutes do not guarantee Tsarukyan a late advantage.
The five-round booking cannot inherit a three-round probability. Tsarukyan's route is more varied in the available evidence, while Ruffy's countering threat remains relevant throughout any successful reset. Editorial 64–36 is a distance-specific call, not a carry-over from a shorter fight.
Editorial probabilities, method scenarios, market comparison and uncertainty
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.57 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.78 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Analyst prop read
Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.
| Prop | Reference quote | Implied % | Model % | Fair decimal odds | Difference (pp) | Estimated EV | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goes the Distance — Yes | +250BetOnline | 28.6% | 46% | 2.17 | +17.4 | +61.0% | Value lean |
| How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance | +250BetOnline | 28.6% | 46% | 2.17 | +17.4 | +61.0% | Value lean |
| Decision — Arman Tsarukyan by Unanimous Decision | +350BetOnline | 22.2% | 34% | 2.94 | +11.8 | +53.0% | Value lean |
| Over 3.5 Rounds | +145BetOnline | 40.8% | 52% | 1.92 | +11.2 | +27.4% | Value lean |
| Arman Tsarukyan by Points | +300BetOnline | 25.0% | 34% | 2.94 | +9.0 | +36.0% | Value lean |
| Double Chance — Mauricio Ruffy by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision | +285BetOnline | 26.0% | 34% | 2.94 | +8.0 | +30.9% | Value lean |
| Mauricio Ruffy by Points | +825BetOnline | 10.8% | 12% | 8.33 | +1.2 | +11.0% | Fair price |
| Point Spread — Arman Tsarukyan -3.5 | -175BetOnline | 63.6% | 64% | 1.56 | +0.4 | +0.6% | Fair price |
| Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ | +350BetOnline | 22.2% | 22% | 4.55 | -0.2 | -1.0% | Fair price |
| Mauricio Ruffy by Submission | +3300BetOnline | 2.9% | 2% | 50.00 | -0.9 | -32.0% | Fair price |
| Double Chance — Arman Tsarukyan by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision | +115BetOnline | 46.5% | 44% | 2.27 | -2.5 | -5.4% | Fair price |
| Win Inside Distance — Mauricio Ruffy | +200BetOnline | 33.3% | 24% | 4.17 | -9.3 | -28.0% | Avoid / overpriced |
| How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission | +205BetOnline | 32.8% | 22% | 4.55 | -10.8 | -32.9% | Avoid / overpriced |
| Arman Tsarukyan by Submission | +215BetOnline | 31.7% | 20% | 5.00 | -11.7 | -37.0% | Avoid / overpriced |
| Under 3.5 Rounds | -170BetOnline | 63.0% | 48% | 2.08 | -15.0 | -23.8% | Avoid / overpriced |
| How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ | -105BetOnline | 51.2% | 32% | 3.13 | -19.2 | -37.5% | Avoid / overpriced |
| Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ | +215BetOnline | 31.7% | 10% | 10.00 | -21.7 | -68.5% | Avoid / overpriced |
| Goes the Distance — No | -325BetOnline | 76.5% | 54% | 1.85 | -22.5 | -29.4% | Avoid / overpriced |
| Win Inside Distance — Arman Tsarukyan | -260BetOnline | 72.2% | 30% | 3.33 | -42.2 | -58.5% | Avoid / overpriced |
Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
Goes the Distance at +250 (+17.4pp vs editorial 46%) is the co-main's cleanest value — Tsarukyan by points (34 editorial share) is the largest single bucket and Ruffy's 87% takedown defence keeps him upright long enough for five rounds to matter. Tsarukyan by points at +300 (+9pp) and Ruffy Double Chance TKO/Dec at +285 (+8pp) are the secondary plays. Avoid Tsarukyan inside-distance markets: -260 implies 72% finish equity against an editorial 30% (10 KO + 20 Sub). Ruffy by KO at +350 is fairly priced at 22%.
Editorial handicapping
Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.
The editorial selection is Tsarukyan at 64% against Ruffy at 36%, specifically for five rounds. Tsarukyan has a repeatable route through wrestling and phase changes, supported by 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes and lower published striking absorption. The estimate gives that route an advantage without treating every entry as successful or giving him an automatic championship-round bonus.
Ruffy's 87% recorded takedown defence and stronger knockdown production keep the opposing probability substantial. The critical counterargument is that Tsarukyan can spend energy and concede clean damage on unsuccessful entries. A five-round booking creates more opportunities for both productive grappling and costly failed approaches; it does not simply amplify one side's strengths.
The largest individual outcome bucket is a Tsarukyan decision, followed by meaningful submission and Ruffy knockout scenarios. Those allocations reflect the tactical routes, not a calibrated simulation. Tsarukyan's available fourth- and fifth-round observations come from a single historical fight, while Ruffy has no equivalent late-round sample in the reviewed data. The method split therefore avoids making an exact late-round finish call.
At 64%, Tsarukyan's fair decimal price is 1.56. A five-point judgement change gives 1.69 at 59% or 1.45 at 69%. Ruffy's corresponding fair price is 2.78 at the central 36% estimate. These scenarios illustrate assumption risk; they are not statistical confidence bounds.
Tsarukyan is the editorial selection, 64–36, with decision-based positional scoring the largest outcome share.
The strongest reversal is Ruffy repeatedly defending in balance and punishing the next entry before Tsarukyan can connect phases.
Selecting Tsarukyan to win does not justify any favourite price. Evaluate the actual quote against the subjective fair price.
Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Arman Tsarukyan gold · Mauricio Ruffy orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
Editorial striking-finish share of all outcomes; not a calibrated method forecast.
Editorial decision share across the announced distance.
Editorial submission share based on the positional routes and their counterarguments.
Editorial striking-finish share of all outcomes; not a calibrated method forecast.
Editorial decision share across the announced distance.
Editorial submission share based on the positional routes and their counterarguments.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.57 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.78 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Tsarukyan is the editorial selection, 64–36, with decision-based positional scoring the largest outcome share. Lean: Arman Tsarukyan.
The editorial selection is Tsarukyan at 64% against Ruffy at 36%, specifically for five rounds. Tsarukyan has a repeatable route through wrestling and phase changes, supported by 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes and lower published striking absorption. The estimate gives that route an advantage without treating every entry as successful or giving him an automatic championship-round bonus.
This is an editorial five-round handicap, not a calibrated simulation.
The comparison is not adjusted for strength of opposition. Takedown accuracy and division rankings need separate verification. Historical round averages describe different opponents and may come from other divisions.
The strongest reversal is Ruffy repeatedly defending in balance and punishing the next entry before Tsarukyan can connect phases.
Tsarukyan is the editorial selection, 64–36, with decision-based positional scoring the largest outcome share.
The strongest reversal is Ruffy repeatedly defending in balance and punishing the next entry before Tsarukyan can connect phases.
Selecting Tsarukyan to win does not justify any favourite price. Evaluate the actual quote against the subjective fair price.
