Twenty-six seconds settled nothing. On Saturday, September 19, Crypto.com Arena hosts the flyweight title rematch: champion Joshua Van (17-2), whose UFC 323 win ended on a 26-second arm injury, against former champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja (30-6) and the grappling tax that never got answered. Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy takes the five-round co-main. Model lean: Van 52–48. Live on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT.
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The 0:26 arm-injury stoppage at UFC 323 answered nothing: champion Joshua Van (17-2) runs it back against Alexandre Pantoja (30-6) and the grappling tax he never had to solve. Model lean: Van 52–48, with Tsarukyan 64–36 (editorial) in the five-round co-main.
BetOnline is our preferred reference when available. We show the selected source and implied probability; this is not a guarantee of the best price across all books. Check the capture date before treating an estimated edge as current.
Main event
Flyweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 13/13 · Analyses available: 0/13
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewDeep Dive
The full story behind UFC 331 — the narrative, the card spotlights, where BetOnline misprices the Los Angeles card, and how the model reads a rematch that lasted 26 seconds.
The Story
UFC 331 is a numbered Los Angeles card built around unfinished business. Champion Joshua Van (17-2, 24 years old) brings 8.43 significant strikes per minute and 81% takedown defence into a rematch with Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (30-6, 36) — 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, six Octagon submissions, and a habit of winning ugly when rounds get deep. Van took the belt at UFC 323 by first-round TKO at 0:26, an arm-injury stoppage rather than a knockout sequence, so the rematch asks the only question that matters: changing of the guard, or medical outlier?
The model leans Van a thin 52–48, but BetOnline has moved to Van -132 and Pantoja +113 — the champion carries a few points of juice, not a free edge. The value sits further down the card. The five-round co-main puts Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) and 3.26 takedowns per fifteen against Mauricio Ruffy (14-2), who has never attempted one in the Octagon. Below it, Patricio Pitbull meets Doo Ho Choi after Moicano vs. Ortega was cancelled (Ortega cut in training), and the prelims carry the two widest model-versus-market gaps on the calendar.
“An arm gave out at 0:26 and a title changed hands. That is not an answer to anything — which is why the model has this at 52–48 and the largest single outcome in a hundred simulations belongs to the man who lost.”
Main Event — Flyweight Title
01Van vs. Pantoja 2
The 0:26 arm-injury stoppage at UFC 323 settled nothing. Champion Joshua Van (17-2) defends against Alexandre Pantoja (30-6), whose 25-in-100 submission path is the largest single outcome. Model 52–48 Van — neither moneyline is the play.
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Lightweight
02Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy
Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) shoots 3.26 takedowns per fifteen at a man who has never attempted one in the Octagon. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan; BetOnline −288 is ahead of that line. Goes the Distance is the cleaner price than the favourite.
Full breakdown
Main Card — Featherweight
03Pitbull vs. Choi
Patricio Pitbull (37-9) vs. Doo Ho Choi (17-4-1). Model 52–48 Pitbull; the book has Choi −270. Pedigree versus knockout power — and almost no UFC sample on the side we lean.
Full breakdown
Prelim Spotlight
04Jourdain vs. Vera & Tuivasa vs. Despaigne
The two widest model-versus-market gaps on the card. Vera at +195 has never been finished in twenty-six Octagon bouts; Tuivasa at +482 carries a 43% model read the book prices at 17.2%.
Full breakdown
Betting Desk
Original analyst scenarios and price notes. These editorial snapshots are not live offers; check the dated quotes and value status on the fight card before interpreting them.
Main Event — Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja
Model fair odds
Joshua Van
-108
52% win · 1.92 decimal
Model fair odds
Alexandre Pantoja
+108
48% win · 2.08 decimal
Market (BetOnline)
−132
Market (BetOnline)
+113
Projected outcome breakdown
How the fight unfolds
The 26-second ghost
Their first meeting ended at 0:26 on an arm injury, not a knockout sequence. It settled nothing, and both men know it — expect a far more careful opening than the result suggests.
Tactical lean: UnresolvedOutput against entries
Van lands 8.43 significant strikes a minute and defends 81% of takedowns; Pantoja shoots 2.79 per fifteen at 48% accuracy. Every failed entry is a round banked for the champion.
Tactical lean: Joshua VanNo longer Van's blind spot
Pantoja owns six measured championship rounds with 152 and 155 seconds of control. Van has now been there once — he stopped Tatsuro Taira at 1:32 of the fifth in May 2026, after absorbing more than ten minutes of ground control.
Tactical lean: NarrowingThe choke is the live path
A quarter of all simulations end with Pantoja submitting him. It is the single largest outcome for either man, and the reason the moneyline is not the market to play here.
Tactical lean: High varianceOriginal price notes
Capture dates are not recorded for these editorial comparisons. Differences below include the bookmaker margin and are expressed in percentage points, not expected return or confidence.
Tai Tuivasa
Model
43.0%
Implied
17.2%
Difference
+25.8 pp
The market has him near-dead at 17.2%. Despaigne is 1-2 in the Octagon with two decision losses — thin evidence for a price this heavy.
Marlon Vera
Model
55.0%
Implied
33.9%
Difference
+21.1 pp
Four straight defeats, not one of them a stoppage. Jourdain at −233 is a steep price on a man Vera can drag into deep water.
Giga Chikadze
Model
46.0%
Implied
23.9%
Difference
+22.1 pp
Brito's 43% striking defence is the softest surface on the card, and Chikadze still ends fights at range.
Goes the Distance — Yes (Tsarukyan vs Ruffy)
Model
46.0%
Implied
28.6%
Difference
+17.4 pp
Five rounds, 34% editorial share for Tsarukyan by points, and Ruffy's 87% takedown defence — the co-main's cleanest prop edge at BetOnline.
Arman Tsarukyan by Points
Model
34.0%
Implied
25.0%
Difference
+9.0 pp
Largest single editorial outcome bucket in the co-main; market still prices decision equity cheaply.
Patricio Pitbull
Model
52.0%
Implied
30.9%
Difference
+21.1 pp
The model reads this a coin flip; the book has Choi a clear favourite.
Brunno Ferreira
Model
53.0%
Implied
42.9%
Difference
+10.1 pp
A dog price on the side the model actually favours, with both finish paths intact.
Alonzo Menifield
Model
44.0%
Implied
36.1%
Difference
+7.9 pp
Coming off a first-round knockout in Macau, against an undefeated prospect the market backs on faith.
Eduarda Moura
Model
46.0%
Implied
39.5%
Difference
+6.5 pp
Divisional-best takedown volume against O'Neill's 70% takedown defence — closer than the line reads.
Original favorite assessments
These notes compare the model with the price recorded in the original analysis. They do not establish value at today's price.
Robelis Despaigne
Three Octagon bouts and two decision losses do not support 86.7%.
Arman Tsarukyan
Editorial 64% vs 74.2% implied — favourite is priced above the handicapping line.
Charles Jourdain
The model favours Vera outright; the market has this one backwards.
Joanderson Brito
Right side, wrong price — 80.0% implied against a 54% read.
Doo Ho Choi
Priced as the favourite in a fight the model scores the other way.
Edmen Shahbazyan
Coming off a decision loss to Brendan Allen; the line has not caught up.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 is a numbered UFC event on Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The main event is a UFC Flyweight Championship rematch between champion Joshua Van (17-2, age 24) and former champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja (30-6, age 36). Van won the first meeting at UFC 323 by first-round TKO at 0:26 — an arm-injury stoppage, not a prolonged beatdown — so the rematch asks whether 8.86 significant strikes per minute and 81% takedown defense actually solved Pantoja's 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.0 submissions per 15 over championship distance. The five-round co-main is Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (14-2) at lightweight. MMA Analytics leans Van a thin 52–48 and Tsarukyan 64–36 (editorial). The card streams on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT local).
UFC 331 streams live from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California on Saturday, September 19, 2026, with the main card beginning at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Because this is a numbered event from the West Coast, the in-arena main event is a mid-afternoon local start: 2:00 PM PT. Viewers in the United Kingdom and Ireland should expect a 10:00 PM BST window, Central Europe tunes in at 11:00 PM CET, and Abu Dhabi runs at 1:00 AM on Sunday. Prelims begin roughly two hours before the main card, around 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT, also on Paramount+. All listed times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes.
The flyweight title main event features Joshua Van (17-2) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (30-6) in a championship rematch, with Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (14-2) in the five-round lightweight co-main. The main card also features Patricio Pitbull (37-9) vs. Doo Ho Choi (17-4-1) at featherweight, and unbeaten Iwo Baraniewski (9-0) vs. Alonzo Menifield (18-6-1) at light heavyweight. Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega was cancelled (Ortega cut in training). Prelims include Charles Jourdain vs. Marlon Vera, Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz, Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura, Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira, Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne, Olympic wrestler Gable Steveson (4-0) vs. Sean Sharaf (4-2), Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito, and Michael Aswell Jr. vs. JooSang Yoo.
MMA Analytics currently favors Joshua Van at approximately 52% win probability versus Alexandre Pantoja at 48% in the UFC 331 flyweight title rematch at Crypto.com Arena — a genuine coin-flip leaning on youth and volume. Van's case is output and posture: 8.86 significant strikes per minute behind 81% takedown defense. Pantoja's case is the tax: 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.0 submissions per 15, with a résumé of winning ugly when rounds get deep — and because the first meeting ended in 26 seconds on an arm injury, nothing about the grappling question was actually answered over championship distance. On the same Los Angeles card, Arman Tsarukyan faces Mauricio Ruffy over five rounds, with an editorial estimate of 64% Tsarukyan and 36% Ruffy. Full fight pages compare these model and editorial estimates to BetOnline odds across UFC 331.
Yes — the UFC 331 main event and co-main are official. Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja headlines in a rematch for the UFC Flyweight Championship, and Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy serves as the five-round lightweight co-main event at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Moicano vs. Ortega was cancelled (Ortega cut in training). Twelve fights remain and stream on Paramount+; the bout order above reflects the official billing.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van vs Pantoja🟢 | Joshua Van | — | -132 (BetOnline)56.9% implied | Alexandre Pantoja | — | +113 (BetOnline)46.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Tsarukyan vs Ruffy🟢 | Arman Tsarukyan | — | -288 (BetOnline)74.2% implied | Mauricio Ruffy | — | +238 (BetOnline)29.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Pitbull vs Choi🟡 | Patricio Pitbull | — | +224 (BetOnline)30.9% implied | Doo Ho Choi | — | -270 (BetOnline)73.0% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Baraniewski vs Menifield🟡 | Iwo Baraniewski | — | -210 (BetOnline)67.7% implied | Alonzo Menifield | — | +177 (BetOnline)36.1% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Jourdain vs Vera🟢 | Charles Jourdain | — | -233 (BetOnline)70.0% implied | Marlon Vera | — | +195 (BetOnline)33.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Gandra vs Diaz🔴 | Ryan Gandra | — | N/A— | Ozzy Diaz | — | N/A— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| O'Neill vs Moura🟢 | Casey O'Neill | — | -180 (BetOnline)64.3% implied | Eduarda Moura | — | +153 (BetOnline)39.5% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Shahbazyan vs Ferreira🟢 | Edmen Shahbazyan | — | -156 (BetOnline)60.9% implied | Brunno Ferreira | — | +133 (BetOnline)42.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Tuivasa vs Despaigne🟡 | Tai Tuivasa | — | +482 (BetOnline)17.2% implied | Robelis Despaigne | — | -650 (BetOnline)86.7% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Steveson vs Sharaf🔴 | Gable Steveson | — | N/A— | Sean Sharaf | — | N/A— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Chikadze vs Brito🟢 | Giga Chikadze | — | +319 (BetOnline)23.9% implied | Joanderson Brito | — | -400 (BetOnline)80.0% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Jr. vs Yoo🔴 | Michael Aswell Jr. | — | N/A— | JooSang Yoo | — | N/A— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
