Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf – UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Gable Steveson

4W0L

Olympic Wrestler

Sean Sharaf

“The Smoke”

4W2L

Volume Brawler

Fifteen strikes absorbed a minute, against Olympic gold

HeavyweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Olympic wrestling and four first-round TKOs against 15.00 SApM and 0% published takedown defence. Model 68–32 Steveson. No BetOnline line. The swing is one heavyweight counter before the shot lands.

Paths that change the fight

Gable StevesonOne level change. He has finished four of four inside round one and the Ellison blueprint — shot, top position, knees and punches — is already on UFC tape against a man who defends 42% of strikes and has twenty-three seconds of career control time.
Sean SharafFive minutes of clean distance work and one clean counter. He lands 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round; if the first takedown fails and the shot he times is the right hand, the wrestling never happens.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10

Steveson's UFCStats rates cover one bout; the per-round charts contain a single observed UFC round, ranks are omitted, and every composite on this page remains an editorial estimate.
His chin and cardio are barely mapped — his longest professional MMA fight is 3:50 and he has never contested a second round.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Gable Steveson

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 68%
Fair decimal odds: 1.47

Reference quote—

Sean Sharaf

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 32%
Fair decimal odds: 3.13

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Sean Sharaf absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute against a heavyweight average of ~4.20 — he throws 7.41 and gets hit more than he lands, and both of his Octagon fights ended with him being stopped in the second round. Gable Steveson now has a UFCStats rate line from one Octagon bout (Elisha Ellison, UFC 329): 16.29 landed per minute at 71% accuracy, 5.17 absorbed, 60% defence, and one knockdown dealt. That is still a one-fight sample, not a career level — but it is no longer a blank column. Behind it sits Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle, two NCAA titles, and four professional MMA wins that all ended inside round one.

Gable Steveson

Attribute

Sean Sharaf

267 years

Age

5'11"

Height

+4" Sharaf6'3"

74"

Reach

+3" Sharaf77"

Not published

Leg Reach

Not published

Orthodox

Stance

Not published

Jackson-Wink MMA

Team

XCMMA, Anaheim

Jul 11, 2026 (UFC 329)

Octagon Debut

Oct 12, 2024

8:23 across four MMA bouts

Career Cage Time

7:15 average per UFC bout

Olympic gold, 125 kg freestyle · 2× NCAA champion

Credentials

Four regional knockout wins

Chain wrestling into ground-and-pound

Fighting Style

High-volume distance brawling

Sharaf owns the frame and Steveson owns the calendar. Four inches of height and three of reach belong to the Californian, who at 6'3" and 77 inches is genuinely long for the division; seven years belong to the wrestler, who turns 26 four months before the fight while Sharaf turns 34 ten months after it. The tape's most revealing row is the last one on time. Steveson's entire professional MMA career runs to eight minutes and twenty-three seconds across four fights, none of which reached the second round. Sharaf's average single Octagon fight is eight minutes and two seconds. One man has fought for less time in his whole career than the other typically fights in one night.

Venue Factor
Crypto.com Arena is neutral ground and a standard cage removes the small-Octagon variable that usually flatters a wrestler. What does not change is the geometry: at 74 inches against 77, Steveson cannot win a range fight he has no reason to take, and he does not have to. His four wins average two minutes and six seconds because distance dies immediately in all of them. Three rounds is generous framing for Sharaf, who has never been past 3:49 of a second round in the UFC — both of his Octagon appearances ended there.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Gable Steveson

Pro Record

4-0-0

UFC Record

1-0 — TKO of Elisha Ellison at UFC 329

Streak

Four wins, every one a first-round TKO

Finish Rate

100% (4 of 4) — none has left round one

Avg Fight Time

2:06 (8:23 total across four bouts)

Chin · Untested — his longest MMA fight is 3:50SOS · Regional plus one UFC boutOlympic freestyle wrestler into ground-and-pound — 1-bout UFCStats sample

The credentials arrived long before the MMA record did. Steveson took Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles at Minnesota, which is the most transferable athletic pedigree in the sport. What the four-fight professional log says is that the ninety seconds before the takedown have never been a problem. Braden Peterson was stopped at 1:38 at LFA 217 in September 2025, Kevin Hein by a left hook in twenty-four seconds at APFC that November, Hugo Lezama from mount at 3:50 at MFL 3 in February 2026, and Elisha Ellison by knees and punches at 2:31 on UFC 329 in July. That Ellison night now produces a UFCStats rate line — 16.29 SLpM, 71% accuracy, 5.17 absorbed, 60% defence, one knockdown — all from a single bout. Four fights, four first-round finishes, eight minutes and twenty-three seconds of total cage time, and a Jackson-Wink camp building striking around a wrestling core. The sample flag is the whole caveat: one Octagon bout is a direction, not a divisional standing.

Sean Sharaf

Pro Record

4-2-0

UFC Record

0-2 — stopped in round two twice

Streak

Two straight losses, both KO/TKO in the second

Finish Rate

100% of wins by KO/TKO (4 of 4) — all pre-UFC

Avg Fight Time

7:15

Chin · Stopped in both Octagon appearancesSOS · Regional, then two contracted UFC opponentsFreestyle — high-volume brawler

Four career wins, all by knockout, none of them in the UFC — and then two Octagon fights that both ended the same way. Junior Tafa stopped him at 2:15 of the second in October 2024 and Steven Asplund at 3:49 of the second in December 2025, and the round-by-round file explains why with unusual clarity. Across four Octagon rounds Sharaf has been out-landed in the aggregate without ever being formally knocked down. Neither loss came from a single shot. Both came from accumulation, which is what 15.00 absorbed per minute against a divisional average of ~4.20 buys you. He is genuinely dangerous in the first five minutes — 44.5 significant strikes landed per opening round is a startling number at heavyweight — and he has yet to convert any of it into an Octagon knockdown, let alone a finish. UFCStats: 7.41 SLpM at 43% accuracy, 42% defence, 0.93 takedowns per fifteen at 11% accuracy.

Gable Steveson

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Sean Sharaf

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Gable Stevesonsignature weapons

First-Round TKOEvery MMA win he has — Ellison 2:31, Lezama 3:50, Hein 0:24, Peterson 1:38. No opponent has heard the second horn

×4

Chain Wrestling into Ground-and-PoundOlympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles; the Ellison and Lezama finishes both came from top position

×2

Left HookKevin Hein, APFC, November 2025 — twenty-four seconds, and the reason he cannot be treated as a pure grappler

×1

Sean Sharafsignature weapons

KO/TKO100% of his career wins, all of them pre-UFC. Zero knockdowns recorded across four Octagon rounds

×4

Opening-Round Volume44.5 significant strikes landed per first round across two UFC fights, 89.9% of them at distance — 7.41 per minute overall on the UFCStats line

×0

Gable Steveson

Anthony Cassioppi

Decision — freestyle wrestling rules, not an MMA bout

Opponent context: veteran

R—

RAF 12 — Aug 22, 2026

Elisha Ellison

TKO — Knees & punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:31)

UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026

Alexandr Romanov

Tech Fall — freestyle wrestling rules, not an MMA bout

Opponent context: veteran

RR2

RAF 9 — May 30, 2026

Hugo Lezama

TKO — Punches from mount

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (3:50)

MFL 3 — Feb 19, 2026

Kevin Hein

TKO — Left hook

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (0:24)

APFC 21 — Nov 23, 2025

Pattern

Five entries, five wins, and one of them is not an MMA fight — the Romanov result came under freestyle wrestling rules at RAF 9 and is why the card carries him at 4-0 while the editorial assessment carries him at 5-0. Strip it out and the pattern is unbroken: four MMA wins, four first-round TKOs, at 1:38, 0:24, 3:50 and 2:31. The Hein finish is the one worth pausing on, because a twenty-four-second left hook is not a wrestling result. The honest caveat is opposition. Three of the four came on the regional circuit, and Elisha Ellison is a single UFC data point, so the level at which this blueprint has been tested remains shallow.

Sean Sharaf

Steven Asplund

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (3:49)

UFC FN: Royval vs. Kape — Dec 13, 2025

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (2:15)

UFC FN: Royval vs. Taira — Oct 12, 2024

Regional bout — opponent not published

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1

Pre-UFC

Regional bout — opponent not published

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RRound not published

Pre-UFC

Regional bout — opponent not published

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RRound not published

Pre-UFC

Pattern

What is fully documented is the part that matters most: two Octagon fights, two second-round stoppage defeats, thirteen months apart, against Junior Tafa and Steven Asplund. Round two has been his death window both times, and the round-by-round file shows the mechanism rather than the misfortune — his output falls from 44.5 significant strikes in the first to 15.0 in the second, and his accuracy from 47% to 38%. He does not get caught. He runs out.

Gable Steveson

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Sean Sharaf

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The donuts are identical and completely uninformative: both men have finished every opponent they have ever beaten, neither has a decision win, neither has a submission win. Read the columns that exist. Steveson has never needed a second round in his life. Sharaf has one documented first-round knockout and two documented second-round knockout losses, which is the same round arriving from opposite directions.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Gable	Sean
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Regional plus one UFC bout — LFA 217, APFC and MFL 3, then a UFC 329 debut finish of Elisha Ellison in 2:31	Regional, then two contracted UFC opponents — Lost to Junior Tafa (TKO R2 2:15) and Steven Asplund (TKO R2 3:49); the four wins are regional and undocumented in the fight records
UFC sample	1-0 — TKO of Elisha Ellison at UFC 329	0-2 — stopped in round two twice
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 2 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (7 vs 5 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Anthony Cassioppi, Elisha Ellison, Alexandr Romanov	Steven Asplund, Junior Tafa, Regional bout — opponent not published

No shared opponents: There is not one name in common across the two records. The rows below are style proxies, not genuine common opponents
Junior Tafa (style proxy): A composed finisher who did not need to out-work Sharaf, only to outlast the first round — the closest thing to a preview of the accumulation path
Steven Asplund (style proxy): Same round, same method, thirteen months later. Sharaf landed 23 significant strikes in that round and absorbed 99
Elisha Ellison (style proxy): The Octagon version of Steveson's blueprint on tape: level change, top position, knees and punches, done inside three minutes

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15% (composite scores unchanged from editorial assessment)

Gablesmall sample

Seansmall sample

The closest column on the page, and still small-sample. Sharaf's UFCStats line cuts both ways — 7.41 landed per minute, but 43% accuracy, 42% defence and 15.00 absorbed. Steveson's 52 composite is unchanged from the editorial assessment; the supporting UFCStats rates from one bout read 16.29 landed at 71%, 5.17 absorbed and 60% defence.

Grappling

Steveson: pedigree estimate · Sharaf: TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Gablesmall sample

Seansmall sample

Thirty-three points and the widest gap in the UFC 331 book. Olympic freestyle gold against 11% takedown accuracy, 0.93 takedowns per fifteen minutes, zero submission attempts and a takedown defence published as 0 on the UFCStats line. Steveson's 75 is still a credential rather than a measurement — his own TD columns read 0.00 from the Ellison bout — but the wrestling pedigree is the most predictive credential in the sport.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Gablesmall sample

Seansmall sample

An eighteen-and-a-half point technical gap, almost all of it grappling. On measured technique alone this is not close, and the only reason the model does not price it wider is that half the inputs on the favourite's side are estimates.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R2/R1 output · finish timing

Gablesmall sample

Seansmall sample

Steveson's Olympic conditioning is structural and completely unproven in MMA — his longest professional fight is 3:50. Sharaf's is measured and unflattering: his output falls 66% from the first round to the second, 44.5 significant strikes to 15.0, and his accuracy from 47% to 38%.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

Gablesmall sample

0.0

Seansmall sample

Thirteen and a half composite points, and a 68-32 model line sitting directly on top of them. Every gauge on this page carries a flag on both sides — one man has one bout of UFCStats rates, the other has two.

Metric	Gable	Sean
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	2:06 — 8:23 total careersmall sample	7:15 per UFC boutsmall sample
Pace Tier	Extreme — 16.29 SLpM (1 bout)small sample	High volume — 7.41 SLpM (2 bouts)small sample
Absorption	5.17 SApM (1 bout)small sample	15.00 SApM (2 bouts)small sample
R2/R1 Output	No round data — never reached R2small sample	44.5 → 15.0 sig strikes (−66%)small sample
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Olympic Freestyle Wrestler 68%32% Volume Brawler

Small-sample UFCStats — Steveson 1 bout, Sharaf 2 bouts · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 68-32 line comes from the editorial assessment and is unchanged. Supporting evidence: wrestling pedigree against 11% takedown accuracy, four first-round finishes against two second-round stoppage losses, and 15.00 significant strikes absorbed per minute on Sharaf's UFCStats line.

Gable StevesonSean Sharaf

Heavyweight

· 36 fighters

Stat	Gable	Gable rank	Div avg	Sean rank	Sean
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	16.29	—	~4.79	—	7.41
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	71%	—	~52.2%	—	43%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	60%	—	~50.8%	—	42%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.17	—	~4.20	—	15.00
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	3.15	—	~1.14	—	0.49
KD (career)	1 / 0	—	~0.86 avg	—	0 / 0
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00	—	~1.60	—	0.93
TD Acc	0%	—	~36.8%	—	11%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	Not published	—	~71.0%	—	Not published
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	—	~0.36	—	0.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	2:06 (8:23 career total)	—	—	—	7:15
Career Record	4-0-0	—	—	—	4-2-0
UFC Record	1-0	—	—	—	0-2

Statistical Verdict
One column still decides this table and it is not the wrestling one. Sharaf absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute against a heavyweight average of ~4.20 and lands 7.41 — a damage ratio of 0.49 — and both of his Octagon appearances ended with him being stopped on accumulation in the second round. His takedown accuracy is 11% with 0.93 attempts per fifteen minutes and zero submission attempts. Steveson's column is no longer empty: one Ellison bout produced 16.29 SLpM at 71% accuracy, 5.17 absorbed, 60% defence and one knockdown. Every cell still carries a small-sample flag — one bout versus two — and no invented divisional ranks are printed beside those rates.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Gable Steveson

Control Time per Round (sec)

Gable Steveson

Available UFC sample: 1 fight, 1 observed rounds. This is the available sample, not a guarantee of complete career coverage. Shortened rounds are included; no values are assigned to rounds without observations.
Nothing here is estimated. There is no output rate, no accuracy, no control time and no knockdown figure for him, and this page does not invent one.

Sean Sharaf

His first round is genuinely dangerous: 44.5 significant strikes landed at 47% accuracy, which is elite heavyweight output — 89.9% of it at distance, only 1.1% in the clinch.
His second round is a collapse. Output falls to 15.0, accuracy to 38%, control time to zero, and 100% of what he throws is at distance. Both of his UFC fights ended in this round.
Zero knockdowns dealt and zero absorbed across all four rounds. Neither stoppage came from a single shot — both came from accumulation, which is what 15.00 absorbed significant strikes per minute buys.

Critical Insight
The most useful chart on this page is still half empty on Steveson's side, and that is the honest state of the matchup. What the filled half shows is that Sharaf's danger is not distributed — it is loaded entirely into the first five minutes, where he lands 44.5 significant strikes, and it evaporates in the second, where he lands 15.0 at 38% and has twice been stopped. His clinch share is 1.1% in round one and 0% in round two, and his control time across two full fights totals twenty-three seconds. That is the profile of a man who has never had to grapple, about to meet an Olympic freestyle gold medallist whose one UFCStats sample already shows 16.29 landed per minute.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Gable

61%

29%

10%

Head

61%

Body

29%

Legs

10%

Sean

75%

18%

Head

75%

Body

18%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

GableSean

68%Distance92%

29%Clinch1%

3%Ground7%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceSean owns it

77" reach against 74", 7.41 SLpM and 89.9% of his round-one offence landing at distance

Pocket / ExchangesGable owns it

Sharaf's 42% striking defence and 15.00 SApM is where both of his UFC fights ended; Steveson's Hein finish was a 24-second left hook

ClinchGable owns it

Olympic freestyle body-lock against 1.1% of Sharaf's round-one output and 23 seconds of career control time

GroundGable owns it

Olympic gold plus two NCAA titles against 11% TDAcc, 0.93 TD/15, 0.00 Sub/15 and 0% published TDDef

Path to Victory

Gable Steveson

One level change. He has finished four of four inside round one and the Ellison blueprint — shot, top position, knees and punches — is already on UFC tape against a man who defends 42% of strikes and has twenty-three seconds of career control time.

Why they win

The largest grappling gap on the card

Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles against 11% takedown accuracy, 0.93 takedowns per fifteen minutes, zero submission attempts and a 0% published takedown defence on the UFCStats line.

Four fights, four first-round finishes

Peterson 1:38, Hein 0:24, Lezama 3:50, Ellison 2:31. His entire professional MMA career runs eight minutes and twenty-three seconds, and no opponent has heard a second horn.

The blueprint is already on UFC tape

The Ellison finish at UFC 329 was a level change into top control into knees and punches — and it produced Steveson's 16.29/71/5.17/60 rate line. Sharaf is a statistically friendlier target: 42% striking defence and 15.00 absorbed per minute.

Seven years younger

26 against 33, and the younger man is the one who has taken almost no damage. Sharaf absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute across his two-bout UFCStats sample.

He is not only a wrestler

The Kevin Hein finish was a left hook in twenty-four seconds. A wrestler who can punch removes the one counter-strategy — sprawling and swinging — that Sharaf's length would otherwise support.

The gameplan

1
Level change before the range fight starts
At 74 inches against 77 he has no reason to spend time outside. His four wins average two minutes and six seconds because distance dies immediately in all of them.
2
Chain, do not force
The one shot Sharaf can punish is a single telegraphed entry. Doubles off a feint, body-lock from the clinch — the phase where Sharaf lands 1.1% of his offence.
3
Ride and land elbows
Sharaf has zero submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no documented guard. Top position against him is not a scramble, it is a resting place with a finish attached.
4
Respect the opening two minutes
44.5 significant strikes per first round is the number that keeps this off 80-20. Nothing about the wrestling plan requires standing in front of him first.
5
Let the second round arrive if it must
Sharaf's output falls 66% into round two and he has been stopped there twice. Even the version where Steveson's own cardio is untested favours him on the historical curve.

Path to Victory

Sean Sharaf

Five minutes of clean distance work and one clean counter. He lands 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round; if the first takedown fails and the shot he times is the right hand, the wrestling never happens.

Why they win

Four inches and three of reach

6'3" against 5'11" and 77 inches against 74. If the fight stays at distance, the geometry is entirely his, and 89.9% of his opening-round output already lands there.

Elite opening-round volume

44.5 significant strikes landed per first round at 47% accuracy, and 7.41 per minute overall on the UFCStats line against a divisional ~4.79.

Every win by knockout

Four for four. It is the only heavyweight variable that never goes away, and it is worth 28 of his 32 win-shares on this page.

The favourite's sample is one bout

Steveson's UFCStats line is real but tiny — one Ellison night. There is still no evidence of how he handles a second round, because he has never had one.

Experience where it is measurable

Two Octagon fights and 7:15 of average fight time against a man whose entire career totals 8:23. Sharaf has felt UFC lights twice; Steveson has felt them once, for 151 seconds — and that is the whole of his rate sample.

The gameplan

1
Jab and keep the fight beyond 74 inches
Three inches of reach is the only structural edge he owns. 89.9% of his opening-round offence already lands at distance — that share needs to stay there.
2
Sprawl everything, then hit the head
The uppercut on the shot is his single highest-value strike and it is the entire content of his 28% knockout equity.
3
Do not chase the clinch
1.1% of his round-one offence lands there and his career control time is twenty-three seconds. Every second spent tied up is a second played on Olympic terms.
4
Solve round two before it arrives
44.5 strikes to 15.0 is not a tactical choice, it is a gas-tank problem. Front-loading everything into five minutes is exactly what got him stopped twice.
5
Make it a first-round fight
The model gives him three decision points out of one hundred. His win condition is not a plan for fifteen minutes; it is a plan for five.

Danger Zone

How Gable Steveson loses

He shoots into an uppercut. Sharaf lands 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round and every one of his four career wins ended with someone unconscious — the timing window on a telegraphed entry is real.
The takedown does not come cheaply against 6'3" and 77 inches, and a round spent kickboxing at range is a round played entirely on the other man's terms.
He has never been past 3:50 in a professional MMA fight. If this reaches the second round with the wrestling stalled, nobody — including his own corner — knows what happens next.

Danger Zone

How Sean Sharaf loses

The first takedown lands and the Ellison sequence repeats: top position, knees, punches, stoppage inside three minutes, against a man whose four wins average 2:06.
He survives round one, arrives in round two where his output has historically fallen to 15.0 significant strikes at 38% accuracy, and gets stopped there for the third consecutive time.
His twenty-three seconds of career control time and 0.00 submission attempts mean he has no reversal, no guard game and no escape — only sprawl or lose, against Olympic freestyle gold.

The fight's central axis

Fifteen Absorbed a Minute

Sean Sharaf absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute against a heavyweight division average of ~4.20 — among the worst marks in the pool on a two-bout sample. He is not out-struck occasionally; he is out-struck structurally, in every fight he has had at this level, and both of those fights ended with him stopped on accumulation in the second round.

15.00

Sharaf SApM — 35th of 36 heavyweights (div avg 4.20)

The favourite's entire career

Eight Minutes and Twenty-Three Seconds

Steveson's four professional MMA fights total 8:23 of cage time — 1:38, 0:24, 3:50 and 2:31, all first-round TKOs. Sharaf's average single UFC fight is 7:15. One man has fought for less time in his whole career than the other typically fights in one night, which is simultaneously the case for him and the case against him.

8:23

Steveson's total professional MMA cage time, across four wins

Where both his UFC fights ended

The Round-Two Collapse

Sharaf lands 44.5 significant strikes in a first round at 47% accuracy. In the second that falls to 15.0 at 38%, with zero control time and 100% of his output at distance. Junior Tafa stopped him at 2:15 of round two; Steven Asplund at 3:49. The pattern is not bad luck, it is a measured 66% output collapse.

−66%

Sharaf's output drop from round one to round two

The honest caveat on the favourite

Credentials Are Not Rate Stats

Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles are real, verified and the most transferable athletic pedigree in the sport. Steveson now also has a one-bout UFCStats line from Ellison (16.29/71/5.17/60, one knockdown) — still a tiny sample, and his composites remain the editorial assessment's scouting estimates rather than recomputed ranks.

How the stoppages actually happened

Nobody Has Been Knocked Down

Sharaf has zero knockdowns dealt and zero absorbed across four Octagon rounds. Neither of his second-round defeats came from a single shot — both were accumulation stoppages. That matters here, because accumulation is exactly what a top-position wrestler produces, and it does not require him to land the perfect punch.

The Five-Round Clock

Gable Steveson danger windowSean Sharaf danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The only round either man has won

All four of Steveson's MMA wins ended here, at an average of 2:06. Sharaf lands 44.5 significant strikes here, his best five minutes by a distance. Whoever imposes the phase in the first ninety seconds probably ends it.

Critical Insight
This is a five-minute fight with ten minutes attached. Sharaf's entire live equity — 28 of his 32 win-shares — sits in the opening round, where he throws 44.5 significant strikes and where every knockout on his record was scored. Steveson's finishing equity sits in the same round, and his is the one backed by four consecutive first-round stoppages. Past 5:00 the historical curve bends hard toward the wrestler, because the only man in the cage with a documented second-round record has lost both of his.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Sean Sharaf absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute against ~4.20 division average, lands 7.41, and has been out-landed across all four of his Octagon rounds. Both of his UFC fights ended with him being stopped in the second.

Gable Steveson now has a one-bout UFCStats line from Ellison — 16.29 SLpM, 71% accuracy, 5.17 absorbed, 60% defence, one knockdown — plus Olympic gold, two NCAA titles, and four MMA wins that every one of them ended in round one. Flag the sample: one bout versus two.

Model: Steveson 68% / Sharaf 32%, conviction 6/10 — the clearest lean on the UFC 331 prelims, capped because the favourite's measured rates are a one-fight sample and one clean heavyweight punch never stops existing.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Steveson KO/TKO — 48%Steveson Decision — 12%Steveson Submission — 8%Sharaf KO/TKO — 28%Sharaf Decision — 3%Sharaf Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Gable Steveson gold · Sean Sharaf orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The wrestling chasm

Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles against 11% takedown accuracy, 0.93 takedowns per fifteen minutes, zero submission attempts and 0% published takedown defence. It is the widest grappling gap in the UFC 331 book and it drives the 48-point knockout bucket.

Fifteen absorbed per minute

Sharaf's 15.00 SApM on a two-bout UFCStats sample sits far above a division average of ~4.20. A ground-and-pound finisher does not need to out-strike him — the accumulation path is already the one that ended both of his Octagon fights.

The round-two collapse

44.5 significant strikes in the first, 15.0 in the second; 47% accuracy falling to 38%; zero control time either way. Tafa stopped him at 2:15 of the second and Asplund at 3:49. The model prices a third repeat as more likely than not.

One clean heavyweight punch

All four of Sharaf's career wins came by knockout, and he throws 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round at 77 inches of reach. That is 28 of his 32 win-shares, and it is why the conviction sits at six rather than eight.

One-bout sample for the favourite

Steveson's UFCStats rates exist but cover one Ellison night. His composites are still editorial estimates, his chin is barely tested, his cardio is unproven past 3:50, and the model's discount for that is the difference between this line and 80-20.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Ellison Remake

Level change inside ninety seconds, top position, knees and punches, and the referee steps in before the first round is out. It is already on UFC tape from July, and Sharaf — 42% striking defence, 15.00 absorbed, twenty-three seconds of career control time — is a friendlier version of the same target.

Scripted outcomes for Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Gable Steveson win probability

48%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest bucket on the page by a distance. Four of four career wins by first-round TKO, a ground-and-pound blueprint already on UFC tape, and an opponent who absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute and defends 42%.
Twelve points, and it needs the finish to stall rather than the plan to fail. Steveson has never seen a second round in his career, so a decision here is as unmapped for him as it is for Sharaf.
Eight points. He has no MMA submission wins, but Olympic freestyle top control against a man with 0.00 submission attempts and no documented guard produces neck exposure whether or not it is hunted.

Sean Sharaf win probability

28%

KO/TKODECSUB

Almost all of his equity, and legitimately earned: every one of his four career wins came by knockout, he lands 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round, and he has three inches of reach on a man who must close the distance to win.
Three points. He has no decision win anywhere on his record, his output falls 66% into round two, and he has never reached a third round in the Octagon. This is close to dead equity.
One point. Zero submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no submission win on his record — this is a scramble artefact, not a path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Gable

30-27 Steveson

Control time in all three rounds

The most likely card in the 12% of fights that reach them

29-28 Steveson

Sharaf banks the first on volume before the wrestling settles

The competitive version, and plausible given 44.5 sig strikes per opening round

29-28 Sharaf

The takedowns stall and the reach wins two rounds standing

The shape of his 3-point decision bucket — structurally close to dead

Model and price

Gable Steveson

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 68%
Fair decimal odds: 1.47

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Sean Sharaf

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 32%
Fair decimal odds: 3.13

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Gable Steveson

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.48 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Sean Sharaf

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 3.13 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Steveson inside the distance is the modal outcome on the page at 48 of 100 — four for four by first-round TKO, against an opponent who absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute and has been stopped in the second round twice. The live dog side is Sharaf by knockout, worth 28 of his 32 win-shares, and it should be priced as a first-round bet rather than a fight-long one. Sharaf on the cards at three points is the one line to avoid outright: he has no decision win anywhere on his record and has never reached a third round in the Octagon.

Conviction

6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The clearest structural mismatch on the UFC 331 prelims — Olympic freestyle gold against 11% takedown accuracy and 0% published takedown defence — held at six out of ten because the favourite's UFCStats sample is one bout and the underdog has knocked out everyone he has ever beaten. Lean: Gable Steveson.

What backs the lean

Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles against 11% takedown accuracy, 0.93 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 0% published takedown defence.
Sharaf absorbs 15.00 significant strikes per minute on a two-bout UFCStats sample against a divisional average of ~4.20.
Four wins, four first-round TKOs, and the ground-and-pound blueprint already on UFC tape from the Ellison finish in July — plus a one-bout rate line of 16.29/71/5.17/60.
Sharaf's output collapses 66% into round two — the round in which both of his Octagon fights were stopped.

What limits it

Steveson's UFCStats rates cover one bout; the per-round charts contain a single observed UFC round, ranks are omitted, and every composite on this page remains an editorial estimate.
His chin and cardio are barely mapped — his longest professional MMA fight is 3:50 and he has never contested a second round.
All four of Sharaf's career wins came by knockout, and he lands 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round with three inches of reach.
Two of the underdog's measured columns are genuinely good: 7.41 SLpM on the UFCStats line, and at heavyweight one clean punch has never needed a rate line.

Final Assessment

This is the widest structural mismatch on the UFC 331 prelims and also among the pages with the thinnest samples, which is an uncomfortable combination. Sean Sharaf's file is short but unambiguous: 15.00 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 7.41 landed, 11% takedown accuracy, 0.93 takedowns per fifteen and 0% published takedown defence on a two-bout UFCStats line. Gable Steveson is no longer a blank column — one Ellison bout produced 16.29/71/5.17/60 and a knockdown — but it is still a one-fight sample sitting on top of a wrestling résumé.

That résumé points at exactly the columns Sharaf cannot fill. Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle and two NCAA titles are not career MMA rate stats, and this desk has labelled the composites as estimates throughout — they are, however, the most transferable credentials in the sport, and the Ellison finish at UFC 329 already showed the Octagon version: level change, top position, knees and punches, 2:31. Sharaf has twenty-three seconds of career control time and zero submission attempts. He does not have a reversal, a guard or an escape. He has a sprawl and a right hand.

The right hand is real, which is why 28 of his 32 win-shares sit on it and why this reads 68-32 rather than 80-20. He throws 44.5 significant strikes in an opening round and all four of his career wins ended with somebody unconscious. Take the wrestler, take him inside the distance, and understand that the first ninety seconds are the only part of this fight where the numbers stop helping him — because past round one, the only man in the cage with a documented second round has lost both of his.

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