Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy – UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Preview & Analysis

CO-MAIN · LIGHTWEIGHT · 5 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Arman Tsarukyan

23W3L

Chain Wrestler

Mauricio Ruffy

14W2L

Knockout Striker

Five rounds change the cost of every entry

LightweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen are the repeatable route; Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and first-blitz power are the reversal. Over five rounds the cost of failed entries decides it. Editorial 64–36 Tsarukyan — the market at −288 is ahead of that line.

Paths that change the fight

Arman TsarukyanSet up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.
Mauricio RuffyKeep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

This is an editorial five-round handicap, not a calibrated simulation.
Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and 1.54 knockdowns per fifteen keep the reversal live on every visible entry.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Arman Tsarukyan

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 64%
Fair decimal odds: 1.56

Reference quote-288 (BetOnline)

Mauricio Ruffy

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 36%
Fair decimal odds: 2.78

Reference quote+238 (BetOnline)

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Editorial probability and method estimates reviewed 2026-09-10. These are subjective handicapping judgements, not calibrated prediction-model outputs. Historical statistics remain descriptive evidence; missing observations are not zeros.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The five-round format changes what must be explained in Tsarukyan–Ruffy. Tsarukyan's 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes gives him a credible way to change the phase; Ruffy's 87% recorded takedown defence makes the quality and sequencing of those entries central. The two figures cannot be directly combined into a probability because they come from different opponents and situations — the distinction is between defending one attempt in open space and defending connected attempts after strikes, fence pressure or a scramble. Tsarukyan absorbs 1.8 significant strikes per minute against Ruffy's 3.83; Ruffy lands 4.19 at 57% accuracy but has never attempted a takedown in the Octagon. The editorial selection is Tsarukyan at 64% against Ruffy at 36%, specifically for five rounds, with decision-based positional scoring the largest outcome share. BetOnline prices Tsarukyan at −288 (~74% implied) — roughly ten points above the editorial line.

Arman Tsarukyan

Attribute

Mauricio Ruffy

29Ruffy four months older

Age

5'7"

Height

+4" Ruffy5'11"

72.5"

Reach

+2.5" Ruffy75"

39.5"

Leg Reach

41"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Syndicate MMA, Las Vegas

Team

Fusion X-Cel

Apr 20, 2019

Octagon Debut

May 4, 2024

Octagon Bouts

Chain wrestling into control striking

Fighting Style

Distance striker, one-shot power

Ruffy owns the measurable edges: four inches of height, two and a half of reach, and a longer leg reach. Tsarukyan owns the Octagon sample — twelve UFC bouts since 2019 against six for a man who debuted in May 2024. Profile measurements are not official event weigh-in results.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for five five-minute rounds at Crypto.com Arena. The extra ten minutes do not automatically favour the wrestler or the striker; they raise the cost of every failed entry and every prolonged clinch where Tsarukyan can accumulate control without a finish. Ruffy has no published fourth- or fifth-round observations; Tsarukyan's late-round rows come from a single historical fight (sample size 1) and cannot establish a cardio advantage by themselves.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Arman Tsarukyan

Pro Record

23-3-0

UFC Record

12 completed UFC bouts since April 2019

Streak

Won his last — rear-naked choke of Dan Hooker (Nov 2025)

Finish Rate

9 KO/TKO and 6 submission wins career-wide

Avg Fight Time

12:16

Chin · Durable — 1.8 significant strikes absorbed per minute in UFC aggregatesSOS · EliteChain wrestler / control striker

Since his April 2019 Octagon debut Tsarukyan has built a résumé on phase changes: unanimous decision over Damir Ismagulov, first-round knockouts of Joaquim Silva and Beneil Dariush, a five-round decision win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300, and a 2025 submission of Dan Hooker. The published profile lists 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute, 1.8 absorbed, and 3.26 takedowns per fifteen at 75% takedown defence — a control-first lightweight who can still finish when sequences connect. His three losses include the Islam Makhachev title fight and competitive decisions; none suggest a chin that Ruffy's 1.54 knockdowns per fifteen can automatically exploit.

Mauricio Ruffy

Pro Record

14-2-0

UFC Record

5-1 across six UFC bouts since May 2024

Streak

Two straight knockouts — Rafael Fiziev (UFC 325), Michael Chandler (Freedom 250)

Finish Rate

13 of 14 pro wins by KO/TKO; zero submission wins

Avg Fight Time

8:54

Chin · Tested once — Benoît Saint Denis submitted him (Sep 2025)SOS · RisingKnockout striker

Six Octagon appearances in just over two years, and the arc is almost entirely striking: decision over James Llontop, knockouts of King Green, Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler, with a 2025 submission loss to Benoît Saint Denis as the outlier. The UFC aggregates read 4.19 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy, 3.83 absorbed, 87% takedown defence, zero takedown attempts and zero submission attempts — a pure counter-puncher who has never tried to change the phase. Thirteen career knockouts against zero submissions tell you how he wants every minute to look.

Arman Tsarukyan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Mauricio Ruffy

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Arman Tsarukyansignature weapons

Chain Takedowns3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes — entries off strikes, fence pressure and scrambles rather than naked shots

×12

Ground ControlSix career submission wins; 0.1 submission attempts per fifteen in aggregates with heavy control seconds in round data

×6

Mauricio Ruffysignature weapons

Counter Knockdowns1.54 knockdowns per fifteen minutes — Fiziev, Chandler and Green all fell to clean counters

×13

Takedown Defence87% recorded takedown defence with zero offensive wrestling attempts — every minute stays standing unless Tsarukyan earns the change

×6

Arman Tsarukyan

Dan Hooker

Submission

Opponent context: elite

RR?

UFC Fight Night — Nov 22, 2025

Charles Oliveira

Decision

Opponent context: elite

RR5

UFC 300 — Apr 13, 2024

Beneil Dariush

KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

RR1

UFC on ESPN — Dec 2, 2023

Joaquim Silva

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR1

UFC on ESPN — Jun 17, 2023

Damir Ismagulov

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Dec 17, 2022

Pattern

Four straight wins mixing finishes and a championship-distance decision. Oliveira at UFC 300 is the proof he can sustain wrestling sequences across twenty-five minutes; Hooker confirms the submission layer still lives. The Dariush knockout shows the one-shot power is real when entries are clean.

Mauricio Ruffy

Michael Chandler

KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

RR1

UFC Freedom 250 — Jun 14, 2026

Rafael Fiziev

KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

RR1

UFC 325 — Jan 31, 2026

Benoît Saint Denis

Submission

Opponent context: veteran

RR2

UFC Fight Night — Sep 6, 2025

King Green

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR1

UFC 313 — Mar 8, 2025

James Llontop

Decision

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC 309 — Nov 16, 2024

Pattern

Momentum is entirely on the knockout side entering Los Angeles: Fiziev and Chandler back-to-back after rebounding from the Saint Denis submission. Every win except Llontop ended inside the distance on strikes; the loss is the only time an opponent changed the phase successfully. Zero takedown attempts in six UFC fights — the entire form table is standing exchanges and counters.

Arman Tsarukyan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Mauricio Ruffy

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Career-scoped donuts: Tsarukyan's 23 wins split across knockouts, submissions and decisions — he is not a one-route fighter. Ruffy's 14 wins are thirteen knockouts and one decision. At UFC scope the contrast sharpens: Tsarukyan has multiple decision and submission paths on the ledger; Ruffy's six Octagon wins are five stoppages on the feet and one scorecard.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Arman	Mauricio
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Elite — Beat Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Dan Hooker; decision over Damir Ismagulov	Rising — Stopped King Green, Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler; lost to Saint Denis by submission
UFC sample	12 completed UFC bouts since April 2019	5-1 across six UFC bouts since May 2024
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	3 elite · 2 veteran tier	2 elite · 2 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (13 vs 11 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Dan Hooker, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush	Michael Chandler, Rafael Fiziev, Benoît Saint Denis

Arman

Mauricio

Aligns directionally with the 64–36 editorial line — grappling and mileage for Tsarukyan, striking power and defence for Ruffy — but these gauges are illustrative, not a re-derived model.

Metric	Arman	Mauricio
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	Extended in elite wins	Front-loaded finishes
Pace Tier	3.85 SLpM, control-heavy	4.19 SLpM, counter-first
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	20.5 vs 14.4 sig (RxR avg)	22 vs 14.7 sig (RxR avg)
Takedowns / 15	3.26	0.00
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	1 fight — R4/R5 n=1 each	No UFC R4/R5 data

Archetype Base Rate

Chain Wrestler 64%36% Knockout Striker

Editorial five-round handicap — not an archetype lookup · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 64–36 split is a distance-specific editorial judgement: Tsarukyan's repeatable wrestling sequences against Ruffy's takedown defence and knockdown threat, over twenty-five minutes.

Arman TsarukyanMauricio Ruffy

Lightweight

· 84 fighters

Stat	Arman	Arman rank	Div avg	Mauricio rank	Mauricio
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.85	—	~4.5	—	4.19
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	50%	—	—	—	57%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	54%	—	—	—	59%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	1.80	—	~4.1	—	3.83
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.31	—	—	—	1.54
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	3.26	—	—	—	0.00
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	75%	—	—	—	87%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.10	—	—	—	0.00

Statistical Verdict
Tsarukyan owns the grappling row and the absorption row; Ruffy owns volume, accuracy and knockdown production. Division ranks are not fully verified for this editorial page — treat the table as a side-by-side of published profile aggregates.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R4, R5: single-fight sample for Arman Tsarukyan

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Mauricio Ruffy

Control Time per Round (sec)

Arman Tsarukyan

Control time averages 137, 115 and 111 seconds in the first three rounds — roughly a third of each round on top when sequences connect.
Fourth and fifth rounds each come from a single observed fight; they are shown but cannot support a cardio conclusion.

Mauricio Ruffy

93.9% of first-round offence lands at distance with only ten seconds of average control — a pure striker profile.
No fourth- or fifth-round rows exist in the reviewed UFC sample.

Critical Insight
Tsarukyan's round-by-round control is the structural story in the data; Ruffy's is distance striking with spike knockdown rates in R1–R2. Put together, the fight is contested in different phases — entries versus counters — and five rounds give both sequences room to repeat without guaranteeing either man a late edge.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Arman

66%

22%

12%

Head

66%

Body

22%

Legs

12%

Mauricio

82%

11%

Head

82%

Body

Legs

11%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

ArmanMauricio

62%Distance84%

7%Clinch3%

31%Ground13%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceMauricio owns it

4.19 SLpM at 57% accuracy with 75" reach — Tsarukyan's cleanest counters happen if entries are telegraphed

Pocket / ExchangesMauricio owns it

Ruffy's knockdown rate spikes in early rounds; Tsarukyan absorbs less but can still eat the one-shot

Clinch / FenceArman owns it

137 seconds average R1 control and chain wrestling — where decisions are banked

GroundArman owns it

Submissions on the résumé and 30%+ ground-strike share in RxR data vs Ruffy's zero offensive grappling

Path to Victory

Arman Tsarukyan

Set up entries with credible striking, chain attempts without rushing and accumulate offence from positions that reduce countering opportunities.

Why they win

3.26 takedowns per fifteen

The repeatable route to change the phase — especially when entries follow strikes or fence pressure rather than naked shots in open space.

1.8 significant strikes absorbed per minute

The cleanest defensive strike profile on the page — he can afford more entries than Ruffy can afford clean counters if sequences stay disciplined.

Submission and decision paths

Hooker submission and Oliveira decision prove he can win without a knockout — Ruffy has only one UFC decision win.

The gameplan

1
Strike into the entry
Make the first level change follow credible hands — Ruffy's defence is tested on connected sequences, not isolated shots.
2
Fence, not centre
Use the cage to cut off resets; even failed grips that pin Ruffy reduce his counter space.
3
Bank minutes
The largest editorial outcome is a Tsarukyan decision (34 of 100) — control time matters even without a finish.

Path to Victory

Mauricio Ruffy

Keep the first entry expensive, defend the follow-up and reset at a range where counters can be delivered without conceding contact.

Why they win

87% takedown defence

Never attempted a takedown himself; the entire defensive sample is sprawls, balance and resets.

1.54 knockdowns per fifteen

Five times Tsarukyan's rate — Fiziev and Chandler are the recent proof that one clean counter changes the fight.

Four inches of height

Longer limbs at range make entries more visible and counters more natural.

The gameplan

1
Make the first shot expensive
Counters off the initial entry are the highest-equity moments — 1.54 knockdowns per fifteen is built here.
2
Stay off the fence
Long resets at distance force Tsarukyan to re-pay the entry cost every time.
3
Do not grapple
Zero takedown attempts is a feature — any ground minute is a loss on the scorecard unless he is on top with damage.

Danger Zone

How Arman Tsarukyan loses

Repeated failed entries leave him absorbing counters at range — Ruffy's best exchanges end with immediate offence, not prolonged clinches.
Five rounds without damaging control still lose the card if Ruffy keeps the fight standing and lands the cleaner single shots.

Danger Zone

How Mauricio Ruffy loses

Takedown defence holds in open space but fails after fence sequences — Tsarukyan's Oliveira win is the template for twenty-five minutes of positional scoring.
Saint Denis showed the grappling tax exists; Tsarukyan's chain wrestling is a sharper version of that problem.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Tsarukyan's wrestling and lower published strike absorption support a route through connected phases. Ruffy's accuracy, knockdown production and recorded takedown defence give him ways to punish predictable entries.

3.26

Tsarukyan takedowns per 15 min

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Ruffy's recorded takedown defence and knockdown threat can make each failed entry expensive. More available minutes do not guarantee Tsarukyan a late advantage.

5 rounds

Distance and repeatability

The five-round booking cannot inherit a three-round probability. Tsarukyan's route is more varied in the available evidence, while Ruffy's countering threat remains relevant throughout any successful reset.

64–36

Editorial five-round line

The Five-Round Clock

Arman Tsarukyan danger windowMauricio Ruffy danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Counter window

Ruffy averages 0.67 knockdowns in R1–R2 samples; Tsarukyan's first-round control is high but entries are most visible early.

Critical Insight
Early minutes favour Ruffy's counter equity; middle rounds favour Tsarukyan's control sequences. The last ten minutes are the least mapped — efficiency and damage per entry matter more than a generic cardio narrative.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

Editorial probabilities, method scenarios, market comparison and uncertainty

If you only read 3 things

Editorial five-round line: Tsarukyan 64% / Ruffy 36%, conviction 5/10 — not a calibrated simulation.

Tsarukyan's path runs through chained takedowns and control; Ruffy's runs through takedown defence and counters at 1.54 knockdowns per fifteen.

BetOnline −288 on Tsarukyan prices the favourite ~10pp above the editorial lean; distance and method props carry the cleaner value angles.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Tsarukyan Decision — 34%Tsarukyan Submission — 20%Tsarukyan KO/TKO — 10%Ruffy KO/TKO — 22%Ruffy Decision — 12%Ruffy Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Arman Tsarukyan gold · Mauricio Ruffy orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Entry cost over twenty-five minutes

Five rounds multiply the number of wrestling sequences — failed entries that eat counters are the central risk for Tsarukyan.

87% takedown defence vs 3.26 attempts

The defence rate is strong but untested across championship distance against this takedown volume.

Knockdown asymmetry

1.54 vs 0.31 knockdowns per fifteen — Ruffy's equity is concentrated in clean counters, not volume.

Market vs editorial

−288 implies ~74% on Tsarukyan against a 64% editorial fair line (~−178).

Late-round blind spot

Ruffy has no R4/R5 UFC data; Tsarukyan's R4/R5 rows are n=1 each — late edges are not asserted.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Positional Decision

Tsarukyan connects entries, pins Ruffy on the fence and banks control minutes — the largest single bucket and the Oliveira template compressed into a co-main scorecard.

Scripted outcomes for Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Arman Tsarukyan win probability

10%

34%

20%

KO/TKODECSUB

Editorial striking-finish share of all outcomes; not a calibrated method forecast.
Editorial decision share across the announced distance — largest single outcome.
Editorial submission share based on positional routes and Hooker precedent.

Mauricio Ruffy win probability

22%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Editorial striking-finish share — Ruffy's entire UFC identity.
Editorial decision share if counters miss but he stays upright.
Editorial tail risk only; zero career submission wins.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Mauricio

Arman

48-47 Tsarukyan

Control rounds banked after a competitive first

Aligns with the 34-point decision bucket

49-46 Tsarukyan

Entries land cleanly in three of five rounds

Upside case if counters miss

48-47 Ruffy

Counters steal two rounds and survive the middle

Live-dog card if takedowns are denied

Model and price

Arman Tsarukyan

Freshness unverified

Editorial win estimate: 64%
Fair decimal odds: 1.56

Reference quote-288 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: -13.8%
Edge vs no-vig market: -7.5 pp

Mauricio Ruffy

Freshness unverified

Editorial win estimate: 36%
Fair decimal odds: 2.78

Reference quote+238 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: +21.7%
Edge vs no-vig market: +7.5 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Arman Tsarukyan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.57 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Mauricio Ruffy

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.78 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans5 fair8 avoid

Goes the Distance — Yes+250+17.4ppHow Will Fight End — Goes the Distance+250+17.4ppDecision — Arman Tsarukyan by Unanimous Decision+350+11.8ppOver 3.5 Rounds+145+11.2pp+2 more in table

Full prop table (19)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair decimal odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Goes the Distance — Yes	+250BetOnline	28.6%	46%	2.17	+17.4	+61.0%	Value lean
How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance	+250BetOnline	28.6%	46%	2.17	+17.4	+61.0%	Value lean
Decision — Arman Tsarukyan by Unanimous Decision	+350BetOnline	22.2%	34%	2.94	+11.8	+53.0%	Value lean
Over 3.5 Rounds	+145BetOnline	40.8%	52%	1.92	+11.2	+27.4%	Value lean
Arman Tsarukyan by Points	+300BetOnline	25.0%	34%	2.94	+9.0	+36.0%	Value lean
Double Chance — Mauricio Ruffy by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision	+285BetOnline	26.0%	34%	2.94	+8.0	+30.9%	Value lean
Mauricio Ruffy by Points	+825BetOnline	10.8%	12%	8.33	+1.2	+11.0%	Fair price
Point Spread — Arman Tsarukyan -3.5	-175BetOnline	63.6%	64%	1.56	+0.4	+0.6%	Fair price
Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ	+350BetOnline	22.2%	22%	4.55	-0.2	-1.0%	Fair price
Mauricio Ruffy by Submission	+3300BetOnline	2.9%	2%	50.00	-0.9	-32.0%	Fair price
Double Chance — Arman Tsarukyan by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision	+115BetOnline	46.5%	44%	2.27	-2.5	-5.4%	Fair price
Win Inside Distance — Mauricio Ruffy	+200BetOnline	33.3%	24%	4.17	-9.3	-28.0%	Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission	+205BetOnline	32.8%	22%	4.55	-10.8	-32.9%	Avoid / overpriced
Arman Tsarukyan by Submission	+215BetOnline	31.7%	20%	5.00	-11.7	-37.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Under 3.5 Rounds	-170BetOnline	63.0%	48%	2.08	-15.0	-23.8%	Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ	-105BetOnline	51.2%	32%	3.13	-19.2	-37.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ	+215BetOnline	31.7%	10%	10.00	-21.7	-68.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — No	-325BetOnline	76.5%	54%	1.85	-22.5	-29.4%	Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Arman Tsarukyan	-260BetOnline	72.2%	30%	3.33	-42.2	-58.5%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Goes the Distance at +250 (+17.4pp vs editorial 46%) is the co-main's cleanest value — Tsarukyan by points (34 editorial share) is the largest single bucket and Ruffy's 87% takedown defence keeps him upright long enough for five rounds to matter. Tsarukyan by points at +300 (+9pp) and Ruffy Double Chance TKO/Dec at +285 (+8pp) are the secondary plays. Avoid Tsarukyan inside-distance markets: -260 implies 72% finish equity against an editorial 30% (10 KO + 20 Sub). Ruffy by KO at +350 is fairly priced at 22%.

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Tsarukyan is the editorial selection, 64–36, with decision-based positional scoring the largest outcome share. Conviction is moderate because takedown defence and knockdown rates describe different opponents — and neither man has a trustworthy five-round late-round sample. Lean: Arman Tsarukyan.

What backs the lean

3.26 takedowns per fifteen with a five-round decision win over Charles Oliveira on the résumé.
1.8 significant strikes absorbed per minute — can pay entry costs more often than Ruffy's 3.83 absorbed profile suggests.
Submission and decision paths (20% and 34% editorial shares) beyond the knockout column.

What limits it

This is an editorial five-round handicap, not a calibrated simulation.
Ruffy's 87% takedown defence and 1.54 knockdowns per fifteen keep the reversal live on every visible entry.
Tsarukyan −288 at the book vs ~64% fair — favourite moneyline is not the value side.

Final Assessment

Tsarukyan enters as the editorial favourite at 64% specifically because five rounds reward repeated phase changes — if he can chain entries without paying Ruffy's counter tax every time. The largest outcome bucket is a decision, not a finish, which matches the Oliveira template more than the Dariush knockout.

Ruffy at 36% is not a token dog: 87% takedown defence, 1.54 knockdowns per fifteen and back-to-back knockout wins over Fiziev and Chandler mean one clean sequence still ends the fight. He has never attempted a takedown in the UFC; this is entirely a standing fight until Tsarukyan forces otherwise.

The market at −288 prices Tsarukyan roughly ten points above the editorial line. The practical plays sit in distance and method markets — Goes the Distance and Tsarukyan by points — not in laying a heavy favourite price or chasing inside-distance finish equity that the editorial split does not support.

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