Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne – UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Tai Tuivasa

“Bam Bam”

14W10L

Pressure KO Brawler

Robelis Despaigne

6W2L

Taekwondo Length

Seven straight defeats against twenty-three months of inactivity

HeavyweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Despaigne's length and 60% accuracy against Tuivasa's 44% striking defence. Model 57–43 Despaigne. BetOnline has him −650 off three Octagon fights. Tuivasa +482 is the widest moneyline gap on the card — and a knockdown rate that has not fired in his last five UFC bouts.

Paths that change the fight

Tai TuivasaThe first five minutes, in the clinch. He lands 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round with 31.8% of that offence in close, against a man who landed four and two strikes in his two full first rounds.
Robelis DespaigneKeep it at 84 inches and let the clock work. His accuracy climbs to 73% by the third round against a shell that stops 42% of what arrives, and Tuivasa has not scored a knockdown since September 2022.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Despaigne's whole profile is three Octagon fights and seven rounds, and he has not competed since October 19, 2024.
He landed four and two significant strikes in his two full opening rounds — Tuivasa averages 15.0 and 0.29 knockdowns in that same window.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Tai Tuivasa

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 43%
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Reference quote+482 (BetOnline)

Robelis Despaigne

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 57%
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Reference quote-650 (BetOnline)

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two heavyweights arrive here with nothing to protect. Tai Tuivasa has lost six in a row — Gane, Pavlovich, Volkov, Tybura, Rozenstruik and Teixeira — and has not scored a knockdown since September 2022, across his last five Octagon appearances. Robelis Despaigne has not fought since October 19, 2024, a twenty-three-month gap, and his entire UFC body of work is seven rounds: one eighteen-second knockout and two unanimous-decision losses in which he was taken down six times and held down for 18 minutes and 47 seconds. Neither man has landed a single takedown in the UFC. The model makes it Despaigne 57 / Tuivasa 43 on reach, accuracy and absorption, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.

Tai Tuivasa

Attribute

Robelis Despaigne

Age

Not published

6'2"

Height

+5" Despaigne6'7"

75"

Reach

+9" Despaigne84"

Not published

Leg Reach

Not published

Southpaw (fight records) / Orthodox (analysis)

Stance

Orthodox — taekwondo base

Team Tuivasa, Sydney

Team

Not published

Nov 18, 2017

Octagon Debut

Mar 9, 2024

Jan 31, 2026 — L UD3 vs Tallison Teixeira

Last Fight

Oct 19, 2024 — L UD3 vs Austen Lane

Pressure knockout brawler

Fighting Style

Olympic taekwondo into long-range KO

Nine inches of reach is the largest physical gap on the UFC 331 prelims and close to the largest the division can produce. Despaigne would tie the maximum on both counts. Tuivasa is three and a half inches shorter than the divisional average in reach. Neither man has a published leg reach, which matters here because 45.5% of Despaigne's third-round strikes go to the legs.

Venue Factor
A full-size 30-foot Octagon over three rounds gives the longer man room he did not need against wrestlers. Both of Despaigne's defeats came from opponents who closed the distance and held him there — Waldo Cortes-Acosta landed 3 of 4 takedowns and controlled him for 9:49, Austen Lane landed 3 of 8 and controlled him for 8:58. Tuivasa is the one heavyweight who cannot run that plan: he has attempted three takedowns in 17 Octagon fights and landed none of them. The blueprint that beats Despaigne exists, and this opponent does not own it.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Tai Tuivasa

Pro Record

14-10-0

UFC Record

8-10 across 18 bouts since 2017

Streak

Seven straight defeats — Gane, Pavlovich, Volkov, Tybura, Rozenstruik, Teixeira, Sutherland

Finish Rate

93% of career wins by KO/TKO — 7 of his 8 Octagon wins ended inside the distance

Avg Fight Time

7:14

Chin · VulnerableSOS · Elite oppositionPressure knockout brawler

Nine years and 17 Octagon fights, split cleanly down the middle by February 2022. Up to the Derrick Lewis knockout he was 11-3 in the UFC with five first-round finishes and every one of his eight career knockdowns already banked. Since then: Ciryl Gane landed 110 of 168 on him and stopped him in the third, Sergei Pavlovich dropped him twice and finished him in 54 seconds, Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura submitted him, Jairzinho Rozenstruik out-landed him 91-37 for a split decision, and Tallison Teixeira — a 6'7" heavyweight with an 83-inch reach — out-landed him 51-42 and controlled him for seven minutes. Six losses, zero knockdowns in the last five of them. The 1.04 knockdown average that ranks 8th of 36 active heavyweights is a career number built almost entirely before 2023.

Robelis Despaigne

Pro Record

6-2-0

UFC Record

1-2 across three bouts — seven rounds of Octagon data in total

Streak

Two straight decision losses; last fought October 19, 2024

Finish Rate

100% — all six career wins by KO/TKO, none of them past round one

Avg Fight Time

10:06 (UFC)

Chin · Untested — never dropped in the Octagon, 77 significant strikes absorbed in seven roundsSOS · ThinTaekwondo length striker

An Olympic taekwondo bronze medallist who arrived in the UFC at 5-0 with five knockouts and needed 18 seconds to make it six, dropping Josh Parisian at UFC 299 in March 2024. The two fights since have written the scouting report. Waldo Cortes-Acosta took him down three times in four attempts and controlled him for 9 minutes and 49 seconds. Austen Lane — a heavyweight who lands 2.74 significant strikes a minute and defends 41% — took him down three times in eight and controlled him for 8 minutes and 58 seconds. Both went to unanimous decisions. He has not fought since October 19, 2024; UFC 331 falls twenty-three months later. The tools are real and the résumé is seven rounds long.

Tai Tuivasa

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Robelis Despaigne

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Tai Tuivasasignature weapons

Opening-Round PowerCoulter, Asker, Struve, Hunsucker and Hardy all stopped in the first — 8 knockdowns dealt across 17 UFC bouts, a 1.04 average that ranks 8th of 36 active heavyweights

×5

Dirty Boxing in the ClinchAugusto Sakai in 0:26 of the second and Derrick Lewis in 1:40 — 104 career clinch strikes, 24% of his total output and 31.8% of his first-round offence

×2

Robelis Despaignesignature weapons

Long Rear HandJosh Parisian stopped in 0:18 at UFC 299 — 7 of 9 landed and a knockdown, the only UFC win on his ledger

×1

Late Leg KicksNot a finisher, a survival tool: 7.7% of his first-round strikes go to the legs, 27.6% in the second, 45.5% in the third — including 9 of 9 leg kicks in the final round against Cortes-Acosta

×0

Tai Tuivasa

Louie Sutherland

Decision — Unanimous (30-26 ×3)

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Della Maddalena vs. Prates — May 2, 2026

Tallison Teixeira

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC 325 — Jan 31, 2026

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC 305 — Aug 17, 2024

Marcin Tybura

Submission

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (4:08)

UFC FN: Tuivasa vs. Tybura — Mar 16, 2024

Alexander Volkov

Submission

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (4:37)

UFC 293 — Sep 9, 2023

Pattern

Five fights, five defeats, and the manner of them keeps changing: one knockout, two submissions, two decisions. That is the honest tell — he is not losing to a single specific problem, he is losing to whatever the opponent happens to be good at. The Teixeira card is the one that matters here. A 6'7" heavyweight with an 83-inch reach out-landed him 51 to 42 over fifteen minutes and controlled him for 420 seconds, and Tuivasa's answer was 42 significant strikes and no knockdown. His last four opponents have absorbed a combined zero knockdowns from him.

Robelis Despaigne

Austen Lane

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Hernandez vs. Pereira — Oct 19, 2024

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC FN: Lewis vs. Nascimento — May 11, 2024

Josh Parisian

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (0:18)

UFC 299 — Mar 9, 2024

Pattern

Three fights and two distinct outcomes: he lands the long right hand and it is over in 18 seconds, or somebody walks him down, takes him down and out-points him. There is no third result on tape. The two decision losses share a shape — 6 takedowns conceded from 12 attempts, 1,127 seconds of control against him, and both scorecards unanimous. What he has never done is lose a striking exchange badly enough to be hurt; he has absorbed 77 significant strikes and zero knockdowns in seven Octagon rounds.

Tai Tuivasa

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Robelis Despaigne

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The donuts are career percentages from the editorial assessment and they survive both readings of each record — 93% knockout for Tuivasa either way, 100% for Despaigne either way. Between them they own one career decision win and zero submission wins. Read the two together and the shape is obvious — if either man wins, the overwhelming likelihood is that he does it early, and Despaigne's one-win sample is too small to say much beyond that.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Tai	Robelis
Tallison Teixeira (style proxy)	L· UD3 (Jan 2026)	—(no shared bout)
The closest thing to a preview on tape: a 6'7" heavyweight with an 83-inch reach out-landed Tuivasa 51-42, took him down three times and controlled him for 420 seconds
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (style proxy)	—(no shared bout)	L· UD3 (May 2024)
Landed 3 of 4 takedowns on Despaigne and controlled him 9:49 — the blueprint that beats him, and one Tuivasa has never run
Austen Lane (style proxy)	—(no shared bout)	L· UD3 (Oct 2024)
A 2.74 SLpM heavyweight with 41% striking defence still beat Despaigne — on 3 takedowns and 8:58 of control, not on strikes

0.0

Tai

Robelissmall sample

Half a point separates them and the model still lands on 57-43. That divergence is the honest headline of this page: the composites say coin-flip, the analyst pass says the reach, the accuracy and the absorption rate decide it, and the conviction of 4 out of 10 is what the disagreement costs.

Metric	Tai	Robelis
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	7:14	10:06 (UFC)small sample
Pace Tier	Moderate — 3.37 SLpM	Very low — 2.11 SLpM, no divisional rank availablesmall sample
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	127% (19.0 vs 15.0 sig)	256% (11.0 vs 4.3 sig)small sample
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	Fast — 15.0 sig and 0.29 KD per opening round	Very slow — 4 and 2 significant strikes in his two full opening roundssmall sample
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure KO Brawler 43%57% Taekwondo Length Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 57-43 line is the analyst preference pass in the source file, which flipped an original Tuivasa 54 to Despaigne 57 on three grounds: nine inches of reach, 59% striking accuracy against 48%, and 2.54 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 4.61.

Tai TuivasaRobelis Despaigne

Heavyweight

· 36 fighters

Stat	Tai	Tai rank	Div avg	Robelis rank	Robelis
Height	74"	—	~75.7"	—	79"
Reach	75"	—	~78.4"	—	84"
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.37	—	~4.79	—	2.11
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	48%	—	~52.2%	—	59%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	42%	—	~50.8%	—	46%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.61	—	~4.20	—	2.54
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	1.04	8/36	~0.86	—	0.50
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00	25/36	~1.60	—	0.00
TD Acc	0% (0 of 3)	25/36	~36.8%	—	No attempts
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	58%	19/36	~71.0%	—	50% (6 of 12 conceded)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	16/36	~0.36	—	0.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	7:14	—	—	—	10:06 (UFC)

Statistical Verdict
Tuivasa's line is a knockdown rate and a list of problems. Eighth of 36 in knockdown average is genuinely good; 42% striking defence, 4.61 absorbed and 58% takedown defence against a divisional average of 71% are not, and his zero takedowns from three attempts put him near the bottom of both offensive columns. Despaigne carries no rank on this page at all — he has no row in the fighters table — but the two physical rows are the ones that survive the sample problem. The 36-man active pool averages 78.4 inches of reach and contains exactly one fighter at 84 inches; Despaigne would tie the ceiling, from a base that averages 2.54 absorbed strikes a minute against Tuivasa's 4.61.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Tai Tuivasa

The opening round is his loudest: 15.0 significant strikes at 50% accuracy with 0.29 knockdowns and 44 seconds of clinch-driven control, across all 17 of his Octagon bouts.
Almost a third of that first-round offence — 31.8% — lands in the clinch, and only 4.7% on the ground. He is a distance-and-clinch fighter with no mat game whatsoever.
A quarter of his strikes go to the legs in each of the first two rounds (25.1% and 25.0%), which is not the profile his reputation suggests.
Ten of 17 bouts reached a second round and only five reached a third. His third-round line — 19.0 landed, 48% — comes from five fights, four of which he lost.

Robelis Despaigne

He does nothing in the first round. Across his three Octagon openers he landed 4, 7 and 2 significant strikes, and the seven came in the 18 seconds it took to knock out Josh Parisian — his two full opening rounds produced four strikes and two.
Output more than doubles by the second (14.5) and his accuracy peaks in the third at 73%, the highest single figure on this page for either man.
The target mix migrates downward as the fight goes: 7.7% of his first-round strikes to the legs, 27.6% in the second, 45.5% in the third — he stops punching and starts kicking legs.
Two rounds of third-round data and both came in losses. Total control time credited to him across seven Octagon rounds: 21 seconds.

Critical Insight
The two curves run in opposite directions and that is the whole fight. Tuivasa's danger is front-loaded — 15.0 strikes and 0.29 knockdowns in a first round he has fought seventeen times — while Despaigne's first round is nearly empty and his output climbs every five minutes. If the fight is still going at the ten-minute mark, the Cuban is landing at 73% and Tuivasa has never scored a third-round knockdown in five attempts. The caveat is stamped on every Despaigne row: three rounds of first-round data, two of second, two of third, all of it from twelve months of activity that ended in October 2024.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Tai

58%

18%

24%

Head

58%

Body

18%

Legs

24%

Robelis

64%

30%

Head

64%

Body

Legs

30%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

TaiRobelis

72%Distance81%

24%Clinch16%

4%Ground3%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceRobelis owns it

+9 inches of reach, 59% accuracy against 48%, and 100% of his second-round strikes landed at distance

Pocket / ExchangesTai owns it

1.04 knockdowns per 15 minutes (8th of 36) and 0.29 per opening round, into a 46% shell that has absorbed 77 strikes in total

ClinchTai owns it

104 career clinch strikes and 31.8% of his first-round offence, against a man controlled for 18:47 across his two defeats

GroundEven

Zero takedowns landed between them in 20 UFC bouts; three attempts total, all Tuivasa's, all stuffed

Path to Victory

Tai Tuivasa

The first five minutes, in the clinch. He lands 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round with 31.8% of that offence in close, against a man who landed four and two strikes in his two full first rounds.

Why they win

Nine years of first rounds

Seventeen Octagon bouts, 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round. Despaigne has fought three, and two of them produced four and two significant strikes.

The knockdown column

A 1.04 knockdown average ranks 8th of 36 active heavyweights against a divisional average of 0.86. Eight knockdowns dealt, five first-round finishes on the Octagon ledger.

Clinch volume nobody else on this card has

104 career clinch strikes, 24% of his total output and 31.8% of his first-round offence. Despaigne has been controlled for 18:47 across his two defeats.

Activity

He fought in January 2026. Despaigne last competed on October 19, 2024 — a twenty-three-month layoff for a fighter whose entire UFC career is seven rounds long.

Better on the defensive grappling column

58% takedown defence to 50%, and six takedowns conceded by Despaigne from twelve attempts in two fights. If anyone in this cage panics and shoots, it will not be Tuivasa.

The gameplan

1
Close in the first ninety seconds
His knockdown equity is concentrated in a round he has fought seventeen times, against an opponent who landed two significant strikes in his last full opening round.
2
Make it a clinch fight
31.8% of his first-round offence lands in the clinch and he has 104 career clinch strikes. Despaigne conceded 1,127 seconds of control across his two defeats.
3
Attack the body early
19.6% of his first-round strikes go to the body against a man who has taken 77 significant strikes total in the Octagon and has never fought a war.
4
Do not kickbox at 84 inches
Rozenstruik out-landed him 91-37 and Teixeira 51-42 doing exactly that. Standing at range against nine inches of reach is the losing configuration, twice proven.
5
Force a hard second round
Despaigne's cardio evidence is two fights and both were losses. The version where this is decided by fatigue is the only one in which Tuivasa's decision bucket of six ever cashes.

Path to Victory

Robelis Despaigne

Keep it at 84 inches and let the clock work. His accuracy climbs to 73% by the third round against a shell that stops 42% of what arrives, and Tuivasa has not scored a knockdown since September 2022.

Why they win

Nine inches of reach

84 inches against 75. The 36-man active heavyweight pool averages 78.4 and contains exactly one fighter at 84. Tuivasa has to cross all of it to land.

Eleven points of accuracy

59% against 48%, and 2.54 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 4.61. Despaigne's worst absorption night still beat Tuivasa's career average.

The Teixeira card

In January a 6'7" heavyweight with an 83-inch reach out-landed Tuivasa 51-42 and controlled him for 420 seconds. Despaigne has the same frame and one more inch of reach.

The losing streak is six long

Gane, Pavlovich, Volkov, Tybura, Rozenstruik, Teixeira — three finishes among them, and zero knockdowns scored by Tuivasa in the last five.

He gets better as it goes

4.3 significant strikes in the first round, 14.5 in the second, 11.0 at 73% accuracy in the third. His two full-distance fights are the two longest of his professional career.

The gameplan

1
Jab and teep the entries
The published plan, and the numbers back it: 59% accuracy from 84 inches into a shell that stops 42%. He does not need volume, he needs the range.
2
Punish the clinch entry, never live in it
Tuivasa's whole first-round profile runs through close quarters. Every second at 84 inches is a second his 1.04 knockdown average cannot reach.
3
Survive the opening five minutes
0.29 knockdowns per opening round is the single most dangerous number on the page. His own first-round output is nearly zero — that asymmetry only costs him if he gets hit.
4
Go to the legs after the first
27.6% of his second-round strikes and 45.5% of his third go to the legs, including 9 of 9 against Cortes-Acosta. Against a fighter with a 7:14 average fight time, leg damage compounds fast.
5
Bank the last ten minutes
His accuracy peaks at 73% in the third and Tuivasa has never scored a third-round knockdown in five attempts. The decision bucket of twelve is the second-largest outcome on his side.

Danger Zone

How Tai Tuivasa loses

He spends fifteen minutes reaching and gets out-landed by a man throwing 2.11 strikes a minute, which is exactly what Rozenstruik and Teixeira already did to him.
The left hand lands short, the counter comes back over the top, and a 42% striking defence meets an opponent whose six career wins are all knockouts.
At 33 with three knockout defeats, six knockdowns absorbed and 650 significant strikes taken across 32 Octagon rounds, the margin for a bad exchange is thinner than the highlight reel suggests.

Danger Zone

How Robelis Despaigne loses

Twenty-three months out, and the first thing he sees is a heavyweight who lands 15.0 strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round while he historically lands four.
The fight becomes a clinch fight. He has never landed a takedown, has 21 seconds of career control time, and has been held down for nearly nineteen minutes by two men less physical than this.
His entire profile is seven rounds old and produced a 1-2 record. Regression against a genuine puncher is not a tail risk, it is the base case the conviction rating already prices at 4 out of 10.

The fight has no escape hatch

Zero Takedowns Between Them

Across 20 combined UFC appearances neither man has landed a single takedown. Tuivasa is 0 for 3 on attempts in 17 bouts; Despaigne has never shot one in three. Neither has attempted a submission. There is no stalling position and no way to buy a round — every minute of this fight is decided standing.

takedowns landed between them in 20 UFC fights

The blueprint this opponent cannot run

Despaigne Loses to Wrestlers, Not Punchers

Both of his defeats came from control: Waldo Cortes-Acosta landed 3 of 4 takedowns and held him 9:49, Austen Lane landed 3 of 8 and held him 8:58. That is 6 takedowns conceded and 18 minutes 47 seconds on the mat. Tuivasa has attempted three takedowns in nine years and landed none of them.

18:47

control time conceded across Despaigne's two losses

Reading Tuivasa's 1.04 honestly

The Power Number Has an Expiry Date

A 1.04 knockdown average ranks 8th of 36 active heavyweights and it is real — eight knockdowns, five first-round finishes. But the last one came against Ciryl Gane in September 2022. Across his last five Octagon fights, all defeats, Tuivasa has scored zero knockdowns and landed 124 significant strikes in total.

knockdowns in Tuivasa's last five Octagon fights

Where each man's five minutes live

Inverted Round Curves

Tuivasa lands 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns in the first round and has fought seventeen of them. Despaigne landed four and two significant strikes in his two full opening rounds, then climbs to 14.5 in the second and 11.0 at 73% accuracy in the third. The danger windows do not overlap at any point.

The honest caveat on the favourite

Seven Rounds and Twenty-Three Months

Despaigne's complete UFC body of evidence is 64 significant strikes landed, 77 absorbed, one knockdown and a 1-2 record across seven rounds — and none of it is more recent than October 19, 2024. Every number on his side of this page is both small and stale, which is why the conviction rating stops at 4 out of 10.

The Five-Round Clock

Tai Tuivasa danger windowRobelis Despaigne danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Tuivasa's only certain window

15.0 significant strikes, 50% accuracy, 44 seconds of clinch control and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round across seventeen bouts — against a man whose two full first rounds produced four and two strikes.

Critical Insight
This is a fight with a hard hand-off point. Tuivasa's entire measurable advantage lives in the first five minutes; Despaigne's improves in every subsequent one. If the Australian has not hurt him by the end of the opening round, the arithmetic starts running the other way — and every one of Tuivasa's last five defeats featured zero knockdowns from him.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Nine inches of reach and eleven points of striking accuracy against a fighter who has lost six in a row and stops 42% of what comes at him. That is the model's case for Despaigne at 57.

Tuivasa lands 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round across seventeen Octagon bouts, and Despaigne landed four and two significant strikes in his two full first rounds. The underdog's whole fight is the first five minutes.

Model: Despaigne 57% / Tuivasa 43%, conviction 4/10 — held low because the favourite's entire profile is seven rounds old, none of it more recent than October 2024, and 77 of 100 simulations end by knockout.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Despaigne KO/TKO — 42%Despaigne Decision — 12%Despaigne Submission — 3%Tuivasa KO/TKO — 35%Tuivasa Decision — 6%Tuivasa Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Tai Tuivasa gold · Robelis Despaigne orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Nine inches and eleven points

84 inches of reach against 75, and 59% striking accuracy against 48%. In every branch where the fight is contested at range, Despaigne's knockout bucket of 42 is the largest single outcome on the page.

The first-round asymmetry

Tuivasa lands 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round across seventeen bouts; Despaigne landed four and two in his two full first rounds. That single window carries most of the underdog's 35 knockout shares.

A power number that has stopped firing

The 1.04 knockdown average is 8th of 36, but the last knockdown was Ciryl Gane in September 2022. Five fights, five defeats, zero knockdowns since — the model discounts the career rate rather than trusting it.

Grappling as a null column

Zero takedowns landed between them in 20 Octagon fights and zero submission attempts. The submission buckets of three and two are scramble artefacts, not a hunted path, and no version of this fight is stalled to a decision.

Rust against mileage

Despaigne has not competed since October 19, 2024 and owns seven rounds of UFC data. Tuivasa fought in May, but has lost seven straight and absorbed 650 significant strikes across 32 rounds. Both discounts are live, which is what holds the conviction at four.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Range Fight

Despaigne keeps it at 84 inches, lands the long right hand and the round-two volume spike, and a 42% striking defence finally gives way. His largest bucket and the editorial assessment's lean cash method.

Scripted outcomes for Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Tai Tuivasa win probability

35%

KO/TKODECSUB

The second-largest bucket on the page and effectively his whole case. A 1.04 knockdown average ranks 8th of 36, 0.29 of it arrives per opening round, and Despaigne's 46% striking defence has been tested across seven rounds in total.
Only six shares. He has one decision win in a fourteen-win career, his average Octagon fight lasts 7:14, and out-pointing a man landing at 59% from 84 inches has already failed against Rozenstruik and Teixeira.
Two shares. He has zero submission attempts and zero submission wins in 17 Octagon fights — this is a scramble artefact, not a path.

Robelis Despaigne win probability

42%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest single outcome on the page. All six of his career wins are knockouts, none of them past the first round, and Tuivasa has been stopped three times and dropped six across 32 Octagon rounds.
Twelve shares, and the evidence is better than the reputation: two of his three UFC fights went the full fifteen minutes, his accuracy peaks at 73% in the third and his output climbs every round.
Three shares. He has never attempted a submission in the UFC and has 21 seconds of career control time — a scramble outcome only.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Tai

Robelis

29-28 Despaigne

Tuivasa banks the opening round on clinch work, Despaigne takes the last two

The most likely card in the 18% of fights that reach them

30-27 Despaigne

The range fight runs clean from the opening bell

Live if Tuivasa never crosses the nine inches

29-28 Tuivasa

An early knockdown carries the first and the clinch steals a second

His only realistic path to the judges — a six-share bucket

Model and price

Tai Tuivasa

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 43%
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Reference quote+482 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: +150.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: +26.5 pp

Robelis Despaigne

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 57%
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Reference quote-650 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: -34.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -26.5 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Tai Tuivasa

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Robelis Despaigne

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

5 value leans3 fair8 avoid

Point Spread — Tai Tuivasa +3.5+350+20.8ppWin Inside Distance — Tai Tuivasa+450+18.8ppTai Tuivasa by KO/TKO/DQ+500+18.3ppGoes the Distance — Yes+600+3.7pp+1 more in table

Full prop table (16)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair decimal odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Point Spread — Tai Tuivasa +3.5	+350BetOnline	22.2%	43%	2.33	+20.8	+93.5%	Value lean
Win Inside Distance — Tai Tuivasa	+450BetOnline	18.2%	37%	2.70	+18.8	+103.5%	Value lean
Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO/DQ	+500BetOnline	16.7%	35%	2.86	+18.3	+110.0%	Value lean
Goes the Distance — Yes	+600BetOnline	14.3%	18%	5.56	+3.7	+26.0%	Value lean
How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance	+600BetOnline	14.3%	18%	5.56	+3.7	+26.0%	Value lean
Over 1.5 Rounds	+216BetOnline	31.6%	35%	2.86	+3.4	+10.6%	Fair price
Robelis Despaigne by Points	+900BetOnline	10.0%	12%	8.33	+2.0	+20.0%	Fair price
Under 1.5 Rounds	-260BetOnline	72.2%	65%	1.54	-7.2	-10.0%	Fair price
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission	+1250BetOnline	7.4%	5%	20.00	-2.4	-32.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Tai Tuivasa by Points	+1000BetOnline	9.1%	6%	16.67	-3.1	-34.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — No	-1000BetOnline	90.9%	82%	1.22	-8.9	-9.8%	Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ	-950BetOnline	90.5%	77%	1.30	-13.5	-14.9%	Avoid / overpriced
Point Spread — Robelis Despaigne -3.5	-500BetOnline	83.3%	57%	1.75	-26.3	-31.6%	Avoid / overpriced
Robelis Despaigne R1 by KO/TKO/DQ	-165BetOnline	62.3%	35%	2.86	-27.3	-43.8%	Avoid / overpriced
Robelis Despaigne by KO/TKO/DQ	-450BetOnline	81.8%	42%	2.38	-39.8	-48.7%	Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Robelis Despaigne	-700BetOnline	87.5%	45%	2.22	-42.5	-48.6%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Tuivasa +482 is the card's elite value tier — 43% model vs 17.2% implied. Tuivasa by KO at +500 (+18.3pp) captures most of his 35-point finish bucket. Despaigne by KO at -450 and Win Inside Distance at -700 are the market's worst numbers: 81.8% and 87.5% implied against 42% and 45% model. Goes the Distance at +600 (+3.7pp) is live because Despaigne has gone fifteen minutes twice. Avoid all submission props — zero attempts between them in 20 UFC fights.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Despaigne is chalk on reach, accuracy and absorption, and the rating stops at four because his entire case is seven rounds old, none of it more recent than October 2024, and the composite gauges actually favour the other man by half a point. Lean: Robelis Despaigne.

What backs the lean

84 inches of reach against 75, in a 36-man division averaging 78.4 and containing exactly one fighter at 84.
59% striking accuracy against 48%, and 2.54 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 4.61.
Tuivasa has lost seven straight and has not scored a knockdown since September 2022 — six fights ago.
In January, a 6'7" heavyweight with an 83-inch reach out-landed Tuivasa 51-42 and controlled him for 420 seconds.

What limits it

Despaigne's whole profile is three Octagon fights and seven rounds, and he has not competed since October 19, 2024.
He landed four and two significant strikes in his two full opening rounds — Tuivasa averages 15.0 and 0.29 knockdowns in that same window.
A 1.04 knockdown average that ranks 8th of 36 is still eighth of 36, and five of Tuivasa's UFC wins ended in the first round.
The composite gauges make it 48.5 to 48 the other way; only the analyst pass on reach and absorption produces the 57-43 line.

Final Assessment

This is a fight between a man who has lost six in a row and a man who has not fought in twenty-three months, and the model still separates them by fourteen points. The reason is entirely physical: 84 inches of reach against 75, 59% accuracy against 48%, and 2.54 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 4.61. Tallison Teixeira already proved the shape of it in January, out-landing Tuivasa 51-42 from a frame one inch shorter in reach than the one waiting in Los Angeles.

What keeps it honest is that the composite gauges disagree. On the formula, Tuivasa's volume and his 1.04 knockdown average — eighth of 36 active heavyweights — make this 48.5 to 48 in his favour. The model overrides that on measurements the composites do not price, and the cost of the override is a conviction rating of 4 out of 10. The underdog's case is one number and one window: 15.0 significant strikes and 0.29 knockdowns per opening round, across seventeen Octagon first rounds, against an opponent who landed four and two strikes in his last two full ones.

The honest read: 77 of 100 simulations end by knockout and neither man has landed a takedown in his UFC career, so there is nowhere for this to hide. Take Despaigne to control the range and win the back half, understand that his last competitive round was in October 2024, and treat the opening five minutes as the most dangerous stretch of his career.

Back to UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Card