Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Iwo Baraniewski — Light Heavyweight fighter

Iwo Baraniewski

“Rudy”
9W0L
Volume Finisher
VS
Alonzo Menifield — Light Heavyweight fighter

Alonzo Menifield

“Atomic”
18W6L1D
Veteran Power

Eleven strikes a minute against a chin nobody has tested past round one

Light HeavyweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Baraniewski is 3-0 UFC, all first-round TKOs at 11.35 SLpM — and 8.65 absorbed. Menifield is 38, in his hometown, with ten UFC wins and four KO losses inside ten minutes. Model 56–44 Baraniewski; −210 is a prospect premium on a one-round sample.

Paths that change the fight

  • Iwo BaraniewskiThe fourth first round. Eleven strikes a minute at 57% accuracy against a 51% defence, thrown at a 38-year-old who has been knocked out four times inside ten minutes — the shortest path on the page and the one he has already walked three times.
  • Alonzo MenifieldTen more minutes. Menifield does not have to beat the swarm, he has to outlive it; his output rises every round, his knockdown rate falls, and his opponent has never fought a sixth minute in this promotion.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • The composites favour Menifield 53 to 51 overall and 53.5 to 53 on technique — the lean overrides them, it does not follow them.
  • 8.65 significant strikes absorbed per minute is more than double the division average, into a man with seven career knockdowns dealt.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Iwo Baraniewski

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote-210 (BetOnline)

Alonzo Menifield

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote+177 (BetOnline)
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Baraniewski's rate line (11.35 / 57% / 8.65 / 52%) is the UFCStats pass across his three Octagon wins, with career knockdowns 5/1. Every Baraniewski division rank is omitted rather than printed from a tiny denominator. Menifield's displayed rates are the UFCStats line — 3.84 SLpM, 3.81 SApM, 0.48 TD/15, knockdowns 7/5.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Iwo Baraniewski is 9-0, 3-0 in the Octagon, and all three of those wins ended inside the first round. He lands 11.35 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy — and absorbs 8.65 — with five career knockdowns dealt and one absorbed. Alonzo Menifield is 38 years old, fighting in the city he was born in, and has been in seventeen Octagon fights across seven and a half years: 3.84 landed, 3.81 absorbed, 0.48 takedowns per fifteen, 78% takedown defence, seven knockdowns dealt and five absorbed. The composite scores actually favour the veteran, 53 to 51. The model does not, because two things sit outside the composite formula: three straight first-round finishes and eleven years of age.

Iwo Baraniewski
Attribute
Alonzo Menifield
2711-year gap
Age
38
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+3" Menifield76"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aligatores Fight Club, Warsaw
Team
Not published in the fight records
Dec 6, 2025
Octagon Debut
Jan 19, 2019
Judo base, hyper-volume knockout pressure
Fighting Style
Freestyle — power striking with wrestling defence

Height is a wash at 6'0" and the reach gap runs three inches to Menifield. Neither man has a published leg reach. The real separation is time: eleven years of age and just under seven years of Octagon seniority. Menifield debuted in January 2019 and has seventeen UFC bouts and thirty-four recorded rounds behind him; Baraniewski debuted in December 2025 and has fewer than five minutes of cage time in the promotion. One of those numbers is a résumé and the other is a warning label, and it is genuinely unclear which is which.

Venue Factor
Menifield was born in Los Angeles and fights at Crypto.com Arena on a numbered card — the rare veteran home date. He has also been knocked out four times in the Octagon, and all four came inside the opening ten minutes: Carlos Ulberg in twelve seconds, Volkan Oezdemir in 1:27, Ovince Saint Preux at 4:07 of the second, Azamat Murzakanov at 3:18 of the second. He has never been finished in a third round. Baraniewski has never seen one.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Iwo Baraniewski fighting in the Octagon

Iwo Baraniewski

Pro Record
9-0-0
UFC Record
3-0 — all three by first-round TKO
Streak
Nine straight professional wins; three straight first-round Octagon finishes
Finish Rate
100% of wins — 7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 0 decisions
Avg Fight Time
0:55 across the Octagon bouts in the fight records snapshot
Chin · UntestedSOS · Rising prospectHyper-volume pressure finisher

The résumé is nine fights long and contains no decisions at all. Seven knockouts, two submissions, no losses. In that round he landed 22 significant strikes at 69% accuracy and scored two knockdowns. He also got dropped himself. That is the whole file: a fighter who wins firefights by hitting harder and more often than the other man, with no evidence whatsoever of what he looks like in the eleventh minute — because he has never fought a sixth.

Alonzo Menifield throwing a punch in the Octagon

Alonzo Menifield

Pro Record
18-6-1
UFC Record
11-6-1 across eighteen Octagon bouts since January 2019
Streak
Won his last — a first-round TKO of Zhang Mingyang in Macau (May 30, 2026), 4:15 of the opening round
Finish Rate
About 76% of career wins — 10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions
Avg Fight Time
7:34
Chin · Durable but breachable — four of six Octagon losses by knockoutSOS · Ranked gatekeeperPower striker with wrestling defence

Seven and a half years of light heavyweight gatekeeping, and a ledger that is exactly as advertised: seven knockdowns dealt, five absorbed, across thirty-four recorded rounds. He knocked out Paul Craig in 3:19, submitted Jimmy Crute in the second after drawing with him at UFC 284, and out-pointed the then-unbeaten Oumar Sy over fifteen minutes in 2025. He has also been erased by the division's better strikers — twelve seconds against Carlos Ulberg, 1:27 against Volkan Oezdemir. What survives across all of it is the structure: 78% takedown defence, 53% striking accuracy, 3.84 landed and 3.81 absorbed per minute, and four decision wins that prove he can bank rounds when the finish does not come. The question at 38 is whether that structure still holds up against a man throwing eleven strikes a minute.

Iwo Baraniewski
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Alonzo Menifield
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Iwo Baraniewskisignature weapons

First-Round SwarmTafa, Lane and Aslan — every Octagon win inside round one; 22 significant strikes and two knockdowns in the 89 seconds the fight records holds
×3
Ground-and-Pound Follow-Up45.5% of his only recorded UFC round landed on the ground — the closing sequence on Ibo Aslan, not a wrestling entry
×1

Alonzo Menifieldsignature weapons

Right HandFour first-round Octagon knockouts — Mozharov, Craig, Moreira and Cirkunov; seven career knockdowns dealt
×4
Front-Position SubmissionsFabio Cherant in 1:11 and Jimmy Crute in the second — three career submissions and 0.20 attempts per fifteen minutes
×2

Iwo Baraniewski

W
Junior Tafa
TKO — Leg kick & punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:25)
UFC FN: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jun 6, 2026
W
Austen Lane
KO/TKO — Left hook

Opponent context: ufc

RR1 (0:28)
UFC London — Mar 21, 2026
W
Ibo Aslan
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:29)
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 — Dec 6, 2025
Pattern

His six regional wins are not itemised in any source this page trusts, so they are not listed rather than guessed. The pattern is not in dispute — nine wins, no decisions, no losses, nothing past five minutes in the Octagon. What the pattern cannot tell you is what happens when the first five minutes end.

Alonzo Menifield

W
Zhang Mingyang
KO/TKO — Left hook & ground strikes

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (4:15)
UFC FN Macau — May 30, 2026
L
Volkan Oezdemir
KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (1:27)
UFC FN: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker — Nov 22, 2025
W
Oumar Sy
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley
W
Julius Walker
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Cejudo vs. Song
L
Azamat Murzakanov
KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (3:18)
UFC FN: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Pattern

Five fights, three losses, and every one of those losses by knockout inside the opening ten minutes. Between them sit the two wins that explain why he keeps getting booked: a split over Julius Walker and a clean unanimous over Oumar Sy, both of which went the full fifteen. That is the shape of the late-career Menifield — he either gets caught early or he banks rounds. The middle ground has disappeared.

Iwo Baraniewski

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Alonzo Menifield

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both donuts are scoped to Octagon wins only — Baraniewski's three and Menifield's ten — because Baraniewski's six regional wins have no verified round or method breakdown and mixing them in would flatter nobody honestly. Across full careers the editorial assessment puts Baraniewski at 7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions and 0 decisions from nine wins, and Menifield at 10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions and 4 decisions from his seventeen-win ledger. The Octagon-only view is starker. Baraniewski has one column. Menifield has three, and the tallest of the finishing bars is still the first round — five of his ten UFC wins ended there.

Common Opponents

OpponentIwoAlonzo
Oumar Sy (cross-card thread)—(no shared opponent on record)W· UD3 — UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley
Menifield out-pointed the then-unbeaten Frenchman over fifteen minutes; Sy meets Modestas Bukauskas in Paris two weeks before this fight
Carlos Ulberg (style proxy)—(blueprint for Baraniewski)L· KO R1 (0:12)
The cleanest tape on how Menifield loses — a fast, accurate striker who lands first and does not wait
Volkan Oezdemir (style proxy)—(blueprint for Baraniewski)L· KO R1 (1:27)
The most recent bout in the fight records, and the second time a first-round power striker ended his night
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Iwosmall sample
0
Alonzo

Baraniewski wins the offensive columns outright — 11.35 landed per minute at 57% against 3.84 at 53% — and gives most of it back on defence, absorbing 8.65 a minute against 3.81. Striking defence separates them by a single point, 52% to 51%.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Iwosmall sample
0
Alonzo

Menifield's edge, and the only proven one on the page. 78% takedown defence over seventeen bouts, 0.48 takedowns per fifteen minutes and three career submissions against a man whose Octagon takedown numbers are 0.00 across the board.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Iwosmall sample
0.0
Alonzo

Half a point apart. On measured technique this is a coin flip, and the editorial assessment says so explicitly before applying anything else.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Iwosmall sample
0
Alonzo

Menifield's only sample-backed advantage of any size: an average fight time of 7:34, seven third rounds on record and output that rises from 12.6 significant strikes in the first to 18.9 in the third. Baraniewski has no second round anywhere in his UFC file.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Iwosmall sample
0
Alonzo

The composites favour Menifield by two points and the model favours Baraniewski by twelve. That is not a contradiction — it is the two inputs the formula does not carry: three straight first-round Octagon finishes, and eleven years of age.

MetricIwoAlonzo
Avg Fight Time0:55 (fight records snapshot)small sample7:34
Pace TierExtreme — 11.35 SLpMsmall sampleMeasured — 3.84 SLpM
R3/R1 OutputNo R2 or R3 data existssmall sample150% (18.9 vs 12.6 sig)
Slow Start %None — 22 sig and 2 KD in his only recorded roundsmall sampleNone — first round is his best knockdown round (0.18)
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Hyper-Volume Pressure Finisher 56%44% Veteran Power Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 56-44 line is the editorial assessment's August 6 upgrade from 51-49, made on the strength of the three-fight first-round finishing run and the eleven-year age gap — not on any composite, which still read half a point toward Menifield.

Iwo BaraniewskiAlonzo Menifield

Light Heavyweight

· 39 fighters
StatIwoIwo rankDiv avgAlonzo rankAlonzo
SLpM11.35—~4.35—3.84
Str Acc57%—~51.3%—53%
Str Def52%—~51.0%—51%
SApM8.65—~3.74—3.81
KD (career)5 / 1—~0.64 avg—7 / 5
Damage Ratio1.31—~1.16—1.01
TD/150.00—~0.94—0.48
TD Def100%—~69.7%
17/39
78%
TD Acc0%—~37.2%
18/39
31%
Sub/150.00—~0.28
15/39
0.20
Avg Fight Time0:55 (snapshot)———7:34
Statistical Verdict
Menifield's line is the definition of a mid-division veteran: 24th of 39 in output, 12th in accuracy, 17th in striking defence, 17th in takedown defence, and nothing below 24th anywhere. He is average-to-solid across the whole board and elite at nothing. Baraniewski's line cannot be ranked at all. An 11.35 output would be first in the division by a distance and an 8.65 absorption would be dead last by an equal distance, and both come from under fifteen minutes of Octagon time. His 100% takedown defence rests on a denominator small enough that printing a rank beside it would be dishonest.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Iwo Baraniewski

Control Time per Round (sec)

Iwo Baraniewski

  • One round exists in the entire fight records — the 1:29 he needed to finish Ibo Aslan. In it he landed 22 significant strikes at 69% accuracy and scored two knockdowns.
  • He was also knocked down once in that same round. Two dealt, one absorbed, in eighty-nine seconds — the 8.65 absorption figure in miniature.
  • 45.5% of those strikes landed on the ground and only 27.3% at distance, but that is a finishing sequence on a hurt opponent, not evidence of wrestling: his Octagon takedown average is 0.00.
  • There is no second-round or third-round row because he has never fought one in the UFC. Those rows are blank rather than estimated.

Alonzo Menifield

  • The round counts tell the career: seventeen first rounds, ten second rounds, seven third rounds. Ten of his seventeen Octagon fights never reached a third, and seven never reached a second.
  • His 12.6 first-round average looks low because it is compressed by fights that ended at 0:12, 1:11, 1:27 and 1:28 — his knockdown rate peaks in that round at 0.18, against 0.10 in the second.
  • Round one is also his grappling round: 19.1% of his first-round offence lands on the ground, collapsing to 0.5% in the second. Early finishes are ground-and-pound; late fights are not.
  • Survive him and he becomes a range fighter — 84.8% of second-round offence at distance, 75.8% in the third, with output climbing to 18.9 significant strikes at 56% accuracy.
  • 86.5% of his first-round strikes go to the head. He is hunting the finish from the opening bell and only starts mixing in legs (10.6%) once the fight extends.
Critical Insight
The two profiles are almost comically opposed in what they can prove. Menifield's file is front-loaded in outcome — his fights end early far more often than they do not — but his measured output is back-loaded: 12.6 significant strikes in the first round, 18.9 in the third, accuracy climbing from 52% to 56%. He is, on the evidence of thirty-four rounds, a better fighter in the third round than the first. Baraniewski has one round on file and it is the most violent single round on this page. Whoever gets to fight the round they have evidence for wins.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Iwo

Head
82%
Body
14%
Legs
4%

Alonzo

Head
81%
Body
11%
Legs
8%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

IwoAlonzo
27%Distance76%
27%Clinch14%
46%Ground10%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceAlonzo owns it

76" of reach against 73", and 84.8% of Menifield's second-round offence already lands at distance

Pocket / ExchangesIwo owns it

11.35 SLpM at 57% into a 51% striking defence, and three straight first-round Octagon TKOs

ClinchIwo owns it

27.3% of Baraniewski's single recorded round landed in the clinch; Menifield's clinch share sits at 12-15% in every round

GroundAlonzo owns it

78% takedown defence, three career submissions and 0.20 sub attempts per 15 against 0.00 — Baraniewski's ground share is follow-up, not wrestling

Path to Victory

Iwo Baraniewski

The fourth first round. Eleven strikes a minute at 57% accuracy against a 51% defence, thrown at a 38-year-old who has been knocked out four times inside ten minutes — the shortest path on the page and the one he has already walked three times.

Why they win
01
Three first-round Octagon finishes

Tafa, Lane and Aslan, all inside five minutes, all inside twelve months. No other fighter on this prelim card is on a run like it.

02
Eleven strikes a minute

11.35 significant strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy, against a division average of 4.35 and an opponent who blocks 51%. Nothing in the light heavyweight fight records looks like this.

03
Eleven years younger

27 against 38. Recovery between exchanges, recovery between rounds, and recovery from the first clean shot all move the same direction.

04
Menifield's losses are his losses

Four Octagon knockout defeats, all inside ten minutes, two of them inside ninety seconds. The way Baraniewski wins is precisely the way Menifield loses.

05
A second path if the first fails

Two career submissions and a judo base. 45.5% of his single recorded UFC round landed on the ground — he does not need the fight to stay standing to end it.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Open at full volume

    The published plan and the only one supported by evidence: jump on him immediately, force errors, finish before adjustments. His entire measured record lives inside five minutes.

  2. 2
    Head first, then everything

    81.8% of his recorded strikes went to the head at 69% accuracy. Menifield's four knockout losses all came from fighters who went straight at it.

  3. 3
    Follow him down

    45.5% ground share on the Aslan finish. When Menifield is hurt he goes to the floor — Craig, Moreira and Cirkunov all ended there. The follow-up matters more than the knockdown.

  4. 4
    Do not shoot

    0.00 takedowns per fifteen minutes into 78% takedown defence is a trade with no upside. Every level change is a free counter for a man with seven career knockdowns dealt.

  5. 5
    Accept the risk knowingly

    8.65 absorbed per minute is not a plan, it is a cost. It is affordable for five minutes and it is not affordable for fifteen.

Path to Victory

Alonzo Menifield

Ten more minutes. Menifield does not have to beat the swarm, he has to outlive it; his output rises every round, his knockdown rate falls, and his opponent has never fought a sixth minute in this promotion.

Why they win
01
78% takedown defence over seventeen bouts

The only defensive number on this page with a real denominator behind it, and the reason Baraniewski's grappling composite sits at 48.

02
Cleaner absorption by a factor of two

3.81 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 8.65. Baraniewski's damage ratio is better, 1.31 to 1.01, but he pays for it in a way a 38-year-old with seven career knockdowns dealt can exploit.

03
A third round that exists

Seven third rounds on file, 18.9 significant strikes at 56% accuracy in them, and four decision wins. His opponent has zero decisions in nine professional fights.

04
Three inches of reach and a jab

76" against 73", and 84.8% of his second-round offence already lands at distance. The tools to make it a long fight are the ones he already uses.

05
The sample cuts toward him

An 11.35 output and 8.65 absorption over fewer than fifteen Octagon minutes will regress. Which direction it regresses is the whole fight.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Survive ninety seconds

    Two of his four Octagon knockout losses came inside 1:27. The fight he wants starts at the two-minute mark and he has to be conscious to get there.

  2. 2
    Jab behind three inches

    76" of reach and a second-round profile already 84.8% at distance. Range is where his numbers rise and his opponent's have never been tested.

  3. 3
    Break the pace with the clinch

    12-15% of his offence lands in the clinch in every round. Against a swarmer, a wall and a reset is worth more than a counter.

  4. 4
    Bank the second and third

    18.9 significant strikes at 56% in the third round, and four decision wins on the résumé. His opponent has never scored a round on a judge's card in his life.

  5. 5
    Take the counter when it comes

    Seven knockdowns in thirty-four rounds. He does not need to hunt it — a man throwing eleven strikes a minute will hand it to him.

Danger Zone

How Iwo Baraniewski loses

  • The swarm meets a right hand. Menifield has seven knockdowns in thirty-four rounds and Baraniewski was dropped in the only round of his the fight records contains.

  • He does not finish inside five minutes and discovers what 8.65 absorbed strikes a minute feels like in the eighth, against a man whose accuracy climbs each round.

  • It reaches the cards and he has no decision equity at all — nine professional fights, zero decision wins, against an opponent with four.

Danger Zone

How Alonzo Menifield loses

  • He is swarmed exactly the way Tafa, Lane and Aslan were, and at 38 the recovery that saved younger versions of him is not there.

  • The first clean shot lands in the opening ninety seconds — the Ulberg window, the Oezdemir window — and the fight is over before his output curve ever gets to rise.

  • He wrestles to slow the pace, finds 0.00 takedown offence is irrelevant because his own is 0.48 at 31% accuracy, and gets caught standing up.

The fight's central problem

Eighty-Nine Seconds of Evidence

Menifield has thirty-four rounds on file. Every comparison on this page is a three-fight rate line measured against a seven-year career, and the direction of the lean survives that gap only because the finishing form is unambiguous.

1
rounds of Baraniewski data in the fight records
Why conviction stays at four

The 8.65 Problem

Baraniewski absorbs 8.65 significant strikes per minute — more than twice the division's 3.74 average and more than twice what Menifield absorbs. He wins firefights by landing more, not by getting hit less. Against a man with seven knockdowns in thirty-four rounds, that is a live tax that comes due the moment a fight extends.

8.65
Baraniewski SApM against a 3.74 division average
And that is the honest reading

The Composites Disagree With the Model

Overall composite: Menifield 53, Baraniewski 51. Technical: 53.5 to 53. On measured technique the veteran is marginally ahead. The model still lands 56-44 the other way, because three straight first-round Octagon finishes and an eleven-year age gap are not inputs to a composite formula. This page shows both numbers rather than hiding the tension.

The window is precisely dated

Every Knockout Loss Came Early

Menifield's four Octagon knockout defeats: Ulberg at 0:12, Oezdemir at 1:27, Murzakanov at 3:18 of the second, Saint Preux at 4:07 of the second. Not one of them reached the third round. He has never been finished after the ten-minute mark in seventeen UFC fights.

0
third-round finishes suffered in 17 Octagon bouts
The correction worth making

A Home Fight at 38

Menifield was born in Los Angeles and fights at Crypto.com Arena. His date of birth is October 18, 1987, which makes him 38 on fight night, not the 37 the editorial assessment lists. It moves nothing about the lean and everything about how the age argument should be phrased.

The Five-Round Clock

Iwo Baraniewski danger windowAlonzo Menifield danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The heater's window

100% of Baraniewski's Octagon wins have ended here, and two of Menifield's four knockout losses came inside 1:27. This is the single most decisive five minutes on the prelim card.

Critical Insight
The whole 56-44 lean is front-loaded into the first five minutes. Baraniewski's finishing equity is at its maximum at the opening bell and decays from there; Menifield's output, accuracy and survival odds all rise with every minute the fight continues. If the Pole has not landed decisively by the halfway point, the fight has moved into the only territory either man has actually filmed — and it is the veteran's.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Iwo Baraniewski is 3-0 in the UFC and all three wins ended in the first round. Alonzo Menifield has four Octagon knockout losses and every one of them came inside ten minutes. The fight is a bet on whether that window opens.

2

Menifield gets better as fights get longer — 12.6 significant strikes in the first round rising to 18.9 in the third, accuracy from 52% to 56%, and four decision wins. Baraniewski has never fought a second round in the promotion.

3

Model: Baraniewski 56% / Menifield 44%, conviction 4/10. The composites read 53-51 toward Menifield; the lean comes from the finishing run and the eleven-year age gap, not from the technical scores.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Baraniewski KO/TKO — 40%Menifield KO/TKO — 22%Menifield Decision — 18%Baraniewski Submission — 8%Baraniewski Decision — 8%Menifield Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Iwo Baraniewski gold · Alonzo Menifield orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The first-round heater

Three straight Octagon finishes inside five minutes, into an opponent whose four knockout losses all came inside ten. Baraniewski's KO bucket is 40 of 100, the largest single outcome on the page by some distance.

Eleven years

27 against 38. Recovery from a knockdown, recovery between rounds and the ability to absorb a swarm all decline with age, and the analysis treats it as a finish multiplier rather than a tiebreaker.

Absorption at 8.65

Baraniewski takes 8.65 significant strikes a minute against a 3.74 division average. That single number is why Menifield's knockout bucket is still 22 and why conviction is capped at four.

Decision equity, one-sided

Menifield has four Octagon decision wins and seven recorded third rounds; Baraniewski has zero decisions in nine professional fights. Every branch that reaches the cards is worth 18 to the veteran and 8 to the prospect.

Sample size

Fewer than fifteen Octagon minutes underwrite the favourite's entire statistical case. The composites, which use only measured technique, actually read 53 to 51 the other way.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Fourth First Round

The swarm lands the way it landed on Tafa, Lane and Aslan. Menifield has been knocked out in twelve seconds and in 1:27 before; at 38, against eleven strikes a minute, the opening exchange is the whole fight. The largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Iwo Baraniewski win probability
0%
40%
8%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest bucket on the page. Three straight first-round Octagon TKOs, 11.35 significant strikes a minute at 57% accuracy, and an opponent with four knockout losses all inside the first ten minutes.

  • Eight points only. He has never won a decision in nine professional fights and has no recorded second or third round in the UFC — the model cannot price what does not exist.

  • Eight points, backed by two career submissions and a judo base. Realistically these are follow-up finishes on a hurt opponent rather than hunted entries, since his Octagon takedown average is 0.00 into 78% defence.

Alonzo Menifield win probability
0%
22%
18%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Seven knockdowns in thirty-four recorded rounds, and an opponent absorbing 8.65 significant strikes a minute who was himself dropped in the only round on his file. This is the underdog's real equity.

  • His second-largest bucket and the shape of the Sy and Walker wins: fifteen minutes, rising output, and a prospect who has never had to score a round on a judge's card.

  • Four points. Three career submissions and 0.20 attempts per fifteen minutes — a scramble outcome after a hurt sequence rather than a plan.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Iwo
R2
Alonzo
R3
Alonzo
29-28 Menifield
He survives the opening round and takes the two that follow
The modal card — 18 of his 44 win-shares are decisions
30-27 Menifield
The storm never lands and the jab runs unopposed for fifteen minutes
Possible but not the base case — Baraniewski's opening round is hard to lose outright
29-28 Baraniewski
He banks the first on volume or a knockdown and steals one late
His only realistic path to the cards, and the analysis gives it just eight points

Model and price

Iwo Baraniewski

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote-210 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-17.3%
Edge vs no-vig market
-9.2 pp

Alonzo Menifield

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote+177 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+21.9%
Edge vs no-vig market
+9.2 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Iwo Baraniewski

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Alonzo Menifield

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

4 value leans3 fair9 avoid
Double Chance — Alonzo Menifield by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+215+8.3ppGoes the Distance — Yes+400+6.0ppDecision — Alonzo Menifield by Unanimous Decision+725+5.9ppAlonzo Menifield by Points+650+4.7pp
Full prop table (16)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Double Chance — Alonzo Menifield by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+215BetOnline31.7%40%2.50+8.3+26.0%Value lean
Goes the Distance — Yes+400BetOnline20.0%26%3.85+6.0+30.0%Value lean
Decision — Alonzo Menifield by Unanimous Decision+725BetOnline12.1%18%5.56+5.9+48.5%Value lean
Alonzo Menifield by Points+650BetOnline13.3%18%5.56+4.7+35.0%Value lean
Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO/DQ+385BetOnline20.6%22%4.55+1.4+6.7%Fair price
Over 1.5 Rounds+220BetOnline31.3%30%3.33-1.3-4.0%Fair price
Under 1.5 Rounds-265BetOnline72.6%70%1.43-2.6-3.6%Fair price
Iwo Baraniewski by Points+800BetOnline11.1%8%12.50-3.1-28.0%Avoid / overpriced
Point Spread — Iwo Baraniewski -3.5-165BetOnline62.3%56%1.79-6.3-10.1%Avoid / overpriced
Iwo Baraniewski R1 by KO/TKO/DQ+155BetOnline39.2%32%3.13-7.2-18.4%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Alonzo Menifield+200BetOnline33.3%26%3.85-7.3-22.0%Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission+400BetOnline20.0%12%8.33-8.0-40.0%Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ-265BetOnline72.6%62%1.61-10.6-14.6%Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — No-600BetOnline85.7%74%1.35-11.7-13.7%Avoid / overpriced
Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO/DQ-140BetOnline58.3%40%2.50-18.3-31.4%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Iwo Baraniewski-260BetOnline72.2%48%2.08-24.2-33.5%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Menifield +177 (+7.9pp on the moneyline) and Menifield by points at +650 (+4.7pp) are the veteran-side values. Baraniewski by KO at -140 is the market's biggest overreach — 58.3% implied vs 40% model on a three-fight UFC sample. Goes the Distance at +400 (+6pp) is live if Menifield survives the opening blitz. Avoid submission props: combined model equity is 12 of 100.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A clear directional lean built on finishing form and an eleven-year age gap, held to four out of ten because the favourite's entire statistical case rests on fewer than fifteen Octagon minutes and the composites actually read the other way. Lean: Iwo Baraniewski.

What backs the lean

  • 3-0 in the UFC with all three wins by first-round TKO, and 9-0 with no decisions in a nine-fight career.

  • 11.35 significant strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy against a division average of 4.35.

  • 27 against 38, with recovery and durability both moving the wrong way for the veteran.

  • All four of Menifield's Octagon knockout losses came inside the first ten minutes, two of them inside 1:27.

What limits it

  • The composites favour Menifield 53 to 51 overall and 53.5 to 53 on technique — the lean overrides them, it does not follow them.

  • 8.65 significant strikes absorbed per minute is more than double the division average, into a man with seven career knockdowns dealt.

  • Baraniewski has no second round, no third round and no decision anywhere on his UFC record; Menifield has ten, seven and four respectively.

  • One round of Baraniewski round-by-round data exists in the fight records, and he was knocked down in it.

Final Assessment

This is a fight between a body of evidence and the absence of one. Alonzo Menifield has thirty-four recorded Octagon rounds, seventeen bouts, seven knockdowns dealt and five absorbed, and a statistical profile that is average-to-solid at everything and elite at nothing — 3.84 landed, 3.81 absorbed, 0.48 takedowns per fifteen. On measured technique the composites give it to the veteran by two points.

The model goes the other way at 56-44 because two of the three most predictive things here do not appear in a composite formula. The first is that Baraniewski has finished every Octagon opponent inside five minutes. The second is that Menifield is 38, has been knocked out four times, and every one of those knockouts arrived before the ten-minute mark — twice before the ninety-second mark. The way the prospect wins is precisely the way the veteran loses, and that is not a coincidence the numbers can smooth over.

The honest read: take Baraniewski, take him inside the distance, and understand exactly what you are buying. He absorbs 8.65 significant strikes a minute — more than double the division average — and he was dropped in the only round of his that anyone has filmed. If Menifield is still standing at the five-minute mark, the fight moves into the only rounds either man has proof of, and they belong to the man fighting in the city he was born in.

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