Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Casey O'Neill — Women's Flyweight fighter

Casey O'Neill

“King”
11W2L
Volume Pressure
VS
Eduarda Moura — Women's Flyweight fighter

Eduarda Moura

“Ronda”
12W2L
Chain Wrestler

Third in output against the division's number-one wrestler

Women's FlyweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

O'Neill throws 7.89 significant strikes a minute; Moura shoots 3.58 takedowns per fifteen with 139 seconds of first-round control. Keep it standing and the cards rout toward O'Neill. Bank two early mat rounds and Moura steals it. Model 54–46 O'Neill at −180 — closer than the favourite price.

Paths that change the fight

  • Casey O'NeillKeep it upright for eight of the fifteen minutes. At 7.89 significant strikes a minute against 2.57, every standing exchange is a rout on the scorecards, and her 70% takedown defence only has to hold often enough to make the mat minutes fewer than the standing ones.
  • Eduarda MouraTwo takedowns a round, early. Her control is 139 and 134 seconds in the first two rounds and 31 in the third, so the wrestling has to bank the fight before it becomes a kickboxing match she cannot win.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Moura's 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes is first of 32, and 139 seconds of first-round control is exactly what 125-pound judging rewards.
  • O'Neill absorbs 5.53 per minute (27th of 32) and has been submitted in the second round before — by the same finish Moura owns five of.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Casey O'Neill

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
54%
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Reference quote-180 (BetOnline)

Eduarda Moura

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
46%
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Reference quote+153 (BetOnline)
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Pace against possession, and both sides own their half outright. Casey O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute — third of 32 active women's flyweights, against a division average of 4.66 — at 52% accuracy, and her output climbs every round: 33.4, then 37.0, then 39.8. Eduarda Moura attempts 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes, which is not merely good but first in the entire division, and defends 80% of what comes back. O'Neill has scored one Octagon knockdown (Fernandes); Moura has absorbed one (Wang Cong). This will be decided by whether the fight happens standing or on the mat, and by very little else.

Casey O'Neill
Attribute
Eduarda Moura
28
Age
32
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+2" O'Neill
Reach
67"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Not published
Not published
Team
Not published
Feb 20, 2021
Octagon Debut
Nov 4, 2023
#11
Division Rank
#13
High-volume pressure, complete MMA
Fighting Style
Jiu-Jitsu, chain wrestling into control

Identical height at 5'6", two inches of reach to the Scot, and nothing else physical between them. What separates them is four years of age — O'Neill is 28, Moura 32 — and 481 significant strikes. O'Neill has landed 652 significant strikes in the Octagon across seven bouts, 81% of them standing. Moura has landed 171 across four, only 59% of them standing and 36% from the ground. That single pair of ratios is the entire fight: one woman does her work upright, the other does hers on top.

Venue Factor
Three rounds, and the round-by-round record says the clock runs in O'Neill's direction. Moura holds 139 seconds of control in the first round and 134 in the second, then 31 in the third — her wrestling engine measurably empties. O'Neill's output goes the other way: 33.4 significant strikes in the first, 37.0 in the second, 39.8 in the third. If Moura is going to win this, she has to bank it before the last five minutes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Casey O'Neill applying a choke in the Octagon

Casey O'Neill

Pro Record
11-2-0
UFC Record
6-2 across eight Octagon bouts since 2021
Streak
Won her last — first-round TKO of Fernandes (March 2026)
Finish Rate
55% — four KO/TKO and two submissions in eleven wins
Avg Fight Time
11:49
Chin · AverageSOS · Ranked UFCHigh-volume pressure striker

She opened her UFC run 4-0 in a year — Shana Dobson stopped in the second, Lara Procopio submitted in the third, Roxanne Modafferi out-pointed, Antonina Shevchenko stopped in the second — then hit the level and stalled. Jennifer Maia out-pointed her over three rounds at UFC 286 and Ariane da Silva submitted her in the second at UFC 296. The rebuild has been slow but real: a unanimous decision over Luana Santos at UFC 305, then eighteen months out, then a first-round TKO of Fernandes in March 2026. What never changed through any of it is the output. She lands 7.89 significant strikes a minute at 52% accuracy — third and sixth in a 32-woman division — and she does it at a cost of 5.53 absorbed, which is 27th.

Eduarda Moura in a striking exchange in the Octagon

Eduarda Moura

Pro Record
12-2-0
UFC Record
3-2 across five Octagon bouts since 2023
Streak
Lost last — Wang Cong by unanimous decision (Feb 2026)
Finish Rate
75% — four KO/TKO and five submissions in twelve wins
Avg Fight Time
11:15
Chin · 1 knockdown absorbed — Wang Cong (Feb 2026)SOS · BuildingJiu-Jitsu chain wrestler

Two divisions and one loss. She debuted at strawweight in November 2023, stopped Montserrat Conejo Ruiz in the second, then dropped a split decision to Denise Gomes — the only defeat on her ledger, and it came against a striker who refused to be wrestled. The move up to flyweight has produced her two best nights: unanimous decisions over Veronica Hardy at UFC 309 and the long-time contender Lauren Murphy in July 2025. The engine behind both is the same. She attempts 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes, which leads the division outright, and holds 139 and 134 seconds of control in the opening two rounds. Five career submissions sit on the record; none of them are UFC finishes yet.

Casey O'Neill
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Eduarda Moura
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Casey O'Neillsignature weapons

Ground-and-Pound TKOAntonina Shevchenko R2, Shana Dobson R2 and Fernandes R1 in March 2026 — one knockdown on the ledger (Fernandes), with the rest accumulation and top position
×3
Volume Accumulation7.89 significant strikes per minute, 3rd of 32 flyweights, with output climbing 33.4 → 37.0 → 39.8 across the rounds
×2

Eduarda Mourasignature weapons

Chain Wrestling3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes — 1st of 32 women's flyweights — behind 139 and 134 seconds of control in the opening two rounds
×2
Submission FinishingFive career submission wins, none of them yet in the Octagon; her UFC rate reads 0.40 per fifteen minutes
×5

Casey O'Neill

W
Gabriella Fernandes
TKO

Opponent context: ufc

RR1 (3:11)
UFC Seattle — Mar 28, 2026
W
Luana Santos
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
L
Ariane da Silva
Submission

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (1:18)
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
L
Jennifer Maia
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 — Mar 18, 2023
W
Roxanne Modafferi
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 — Feb 12, 2022
Pattern

The shape of her career is a ceiling she has been testing for five years. She beat everyone she was supposed to beat in 2021, lost to the two best opponents she has faced, and has since won two in a row — including the first-round TKO of Fernandes in March 2026 that the analysis calls a finish-form spike. The Ariane da Silva loss is the one that matters here: a second-round submission, the exact ending Moura has produced five times in her career. It is also the only time an opponent has ever put O'Neill away.

Eduarda Moura

L
Cong Wang
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC FN: Bautista vs. Oliveira — Feb 7, 2026
W
Lauren Murphy
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC FN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
W
Veronica Hardy
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
L
Denise Gomes
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Cannonier vs. Imavov (strawweight)
W
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (2:14)
UFC FN: Almeida vs. Lewis (strawweight)
Pattern

Four Octagon fights, one blemish, and a clean identity in all of them. Against Conejo Ruiz she wrestled to a second-round stoppage; against Hardy and Murphy she wrestled to two clear cards; against Denise Gomes she got into a striking match with a striker and lost a split decision. That is not a coincidence — it is the whole scouting report. When the takedowns land she wins comfortably, and when she is made to trade at 37% accuracy she loses close.

Casey O'Neill

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Eduarda Moura

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are career percentages from the editorial assessment — O'Neill four KO/TKO, two submissions and five decisions in eleven wins; Moura four, five and three in twelve. The round bars underneath are UFC-only, because neither woman's regional finishes have published round data: O'Neill's six Octagon wins and Moura's three. Read together they invert cleanly. O'Neill's largest slice is the decision and her stoppages are ground-and-pound TKOs in the second round; Moura's largest slice is the submission, and she has not yet produced one in the UFC.

Common Opponents

OpponentCaseyEduarda
Denise Gomes (style proxy)—(blueprint for O'Neill)L· SD3 (strawweight)
The one time a volume striker refused to be wrestled, Moura lost the only fight on her record
Ariane da Silva (style proxy)L· SUB R2 (UFC 296)—(blueprint for Moura)
O'Neill's only stoppage defeat came by submission — the exact ending Moura has five of
Lauren Murphy / Jennifer Maia (veteran flyweight tier)L· UD3 to Maia (UFC 286)W· UD3 over Murphy (2025)
The closest thing to a shared level: Moura out-wrestled the tier that out-pointed O'Neill
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Casey
0
Eduarda

Eighteen points, and the widest gap on the page. O'Neill: 7.89 landed per minute at 52%, 57% defence, 5.53 absorbed. Moura: 2.57 at 37%, 58% defence, 2.50 absorbed. Moura is harder to hit and safer standing; she is not remotely competitive at scoring.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Casey
0
Eduarda

Twelve points back the other way. Moura leads the division at 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes and defends 80%; O'Neill attempts 1.40 and defends 70%. O'Neill's 0.70 submissions per fifteen — 7th of 32 — is the one column she wins.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Casey
0
Eduarda

Three points. The striking gap is larger than the grappling gap, which is the whole reason this reads as a lean rather than a coin flip.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Casey
0
Eduarda

O'Neill's average fight lasts 11:49 and her third round is her highest-output round at 39.8 significant strikes. Moura's average is 11:15 and her third-round control falls from 139 seconds to 31.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Casey
0.0
Eduarda

Two and a half composite points and a 54-46 model line that sits exactly on top of them. The analysis trimmed the lean from 56-44 to 54-46 on the strength of Moura's takedown volume.

MetricCaseyEduarda
Avg Fight Time11:4911:15
Pace TierElite volume — 7.89 SLpM (3rd/32)Low volume — 2.57 SLpM (29th/32)
R3/R1 Output119% (39.8 vs 33.4 sig)88% (14.3 vs 16.3 sig)
R3 Control Time72 sec31 sec — down from 139 in R1
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Pressure Striker 54%46% Chain Wrestler

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 54-46 line is the editorial assessment's recalibration from an earlier 56-44, trimmed because Moura's 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 80% takedown defence had been underweighted against O'Neill's volume.

Casey O'NeillEduarda Moura

Women's Flyweight

· 32 fighters
StatCaseyCasey rankDiv avgEduarda rankEduarda
SLpM7.89
3/32elite
~4.66
29/32
2.57
Str Acc52%
6/32
~46.3%
29/32
37%
Str Def57%
14/32
~55.5%
12/32
58%
SApM5.53
27/32
~4.08
6/32
2.50
KD Avg0.20
14/32
~0.32
20/32
0.00
Damage Ratio1.43———1.03
TD/151.40
16/32
~1.40
1/32elitesmall sample
3.58
TD Def70%
13/32
~65.9%
6/32
80%
TD Acc34%
18/32
~36.2%
18/32
34%
Sub/150.70
7/32
~0.46
18/32
0.40
Avg Fight Time11:49———11:15
Statistical Verdict
Two fighters who own opposite ends of the same 32-woman pool. O'Neill is 3rd in output and 6th in accuracy but 27th in absorption — she scores heavily and pays for it. Moura is 1st in takedown volume, 6th in both takedown defence and absorption, and 29th in both output and accuracy. There is no column either of them contests: every stat on this table has a clear owner, and the fight is simply a vote on which set matters more over fifteen minutes.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Casey O'Neill

  • Her output rises every single round — 33.4, 37.0, 39.8 significant strikes — and she is the only fighter here whose third round is her busiest.
  • The leg kicks are a first-round tool and then they vanish: 14.1% of her opening-round strikes go to the legs, 6.2% in the second, 5.7% in the third, as the head share climbs to 81.9%.
  • She fights at distance — 86.8% of her first-round offence and 89.3% of her third. The 26.3% ground share in the second is the exception, not the pattern.

Eduarda Moura

  • Control time is her scoring mechanism and it front-loads hard: 139 seconds in the first round, 134 in the second, then 31 in the third.
  • The ground share collapses with it — 49.2% of her offence lands on the mat in the first, 43.9% in the second, and 0.0% in the third across three recorded rounds.
  • Third-round accuracy falls to 27% with 95.3% of her strikes thrown at distance. When the wrestling stops, she is a low-volume striker with the division's second-worst accuracy.
Critical Insight
The two curves run in opposite directions and cross somewhere in the second round. Moura's fight is at its best in the opening ten minutes, where she holds 273 of her 304 recorded seconds of control and lands roughly half her strikes on the ground. O'Neill's is at its best in the last five, where she throws 39.8 significant strikes and Moura's control has fallen to 31 seconds. The scoreboard question is whether Moura's front-loaded mat minutes have already banked two rounds before that happens.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Casey

Head
77%
Body
14%
Legs
9%

Eduarda

Head
85%
Body
7%
Legs
8%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

CaseyEduarda
80%Distance60%
5%Clinch5%
15%Ground35%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceCasey owns it

7.89 SLpM at 52% against 2.57 at 37% — 3rd and 6th of 32 against 29th and 29th

Pocket / ExchangesCasey owns it

81.9% head share in O'Neill's second round; Moura absorbs less (2.50) but scores almost nothing back

ClinchEduarda owns it

Where Moura's entries begin — both fighters land only 4-5% of their strikes here, so the clinch is a transit, not a phase

GroundEduarda owns it

3.58 TD/15 (1st of 32), 139 and 134 seconds of R1/R2 control, and five career submissions against an opponent who has been submitted

Path to Victory

Casey O'Neill

Keep it upright for eight of the fifteen minutes. At 7.89 significant strikes a minute against 2.57, every standing exchange is a rout on the scorecards, and her 70% takedown defence only has to hold often enough to make the mat minutes fewer than the standing ones.

Why they win
01
Two and a half times the output

7.89 significant strikes per minute against 2.57, at 52% accuracy against 37%. Third and sixth of 32 flyweights against 29th and 29th.

02
The third round is hers

39.8 significant strikes in her busiest round, against a woman whose control time drops to 31 seconds and whose accuracy falls to 27% there.

03
Two inches of reach and four fewer years

69" against 67", and 28 against 32 on a night that will be Moura's fifth Octagon appearance and O'Neill's ninth.

04
Scrambles are a live threat, not a hope

0.70 submissions per fifteen minutes — 7th of 32 — and 1.40 takedown attempts of her own. Moura's entries are not free.

05
Finish form

A first-round TKO of Fernandes in March 2026 after eighteen months out, and two second-round ground-and-pound stoppages before it.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Fight off the back foot and the jab

    Two inches of reach and 86.8% of her first-round offence at distance. Circling out beats standing in the pocket where the level change lives.

  2. 2
    Keep the leg kicks past round one

    14.1% of her opening-round strikes go to the legs and then they stop. Against a wrestler who must close distance, that is the wrong tool to abandon.

  3. 3
    Stand up fast, every time

    Moura's rounds are made of 139 and 134 seconds of control. Cutting each ride in half turns two lost rounds into two won ones.

  4. 4
    Threaten her own shots

    1.40 takedowns per fifteen and 0.70 submissions. She does not need to win the wrestling — she needs Moura to respect it enough to stop chaining.

  5. 5
    Push the third

    39.8 significant strikes against 14.3, 72 seconds of control against 31. The last five minutes are the most lopsided five minutes on this page.

Path to Victory

Eduarda Moura

Two takedowns a round, early. Her control is 139 and 134 seconds in the first two rounds and 31 in the third, so the wrestling has to bank the fight before it becomes a kickboxing match she cannot win.

Why they win
01
The division's best takedown volume

3.58 attempts per fifteen minutes is first of 32 active women's flyweights, against a 70% defence that is good rather than impassable.

02
Control time as a scoring engine

139 seconds in the first round and 134 in the second. Judges at 125 have historically rewarded exactly that, and it does not require damage.

03
She is much harder to hurt

2.50 absorbed per minute to O'Neill's 5.53, 58% striking defence to 57%, though she has absorbed one knockdown (Wang Cong).

04
Five submissions, and O'Neill has been submitted

Ariane da Silva finished O'Neill in the second round at UFC 296. It is the only stoppage on her record and it is Moura's specialty.

05
80% takedown defence

O'Neill's own wrestling and scramble threat — 1.40 attempts and 0.70 submissions per fifteen — runs into the sixth-best sprawl in the division.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Do not strike with her

    37% accuracy against 52%, 2.57 output against 7.89. Every minute spent trading without an entry is a minute given away.

  2. 2
    Chain, do not shoot

    3.58 attempts per fifteen minutes only works as a sequence. Single entries into a 70% defence get stuffed and reset into the volume.

  3. 3
    Bank the first two rounds

    273 of her 304 recorded seconds of control come in rounds one and two. The fight has to be two-nil before the third begins.

  4. 4
    Ride and threaten the neck

    Five career submissions and an opponent who has been submitted in the second round before. Control that also threatens is worth double on the cards.

  5. 5
    Take the body away

    Only 4.6% of her first-round offence goes to the body. Against a fighter who presses forward for fifteen minutes, that is the cheapest available way to slow her.

Danger Zone

How Casey O'Neill loses

  • She is put on her back twice a round and loses a fight in which she out-lands Moura by fifty strikes — the control-time decision that flyweight judging keeps producing.

  • A scramble goes wrong and she gets submitted the way Ariane da Silva submitted her in the second round at UFC 296.

  • Her 5.53 absorbed per minute meets a fighter who does not need to trade, and she spends fifteen minutes pressing forward into nothing but level changes.

Danger Zone

How Eduarda Moura loses

  • The entries fail against 70% defence and she eats 110 significant strikes over three rounds without an answer — the Denise Gomes fight again, with a bigger volume gap.

  • Her control collapses on schedule and the third round becomes a 39.8-strike round for O'Neill while she throws 14.3 at 27% accuracy.

  • She gets caught early the way Fernandes did in March; her Octagon chin has never been tested because she has never been in a striking match she was losing badly.

The fight's central axis

Pace Against Possession

Casey O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute, third of 32 active women's flyweights against a division average of 4.66. Eduarda Moura attempts 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes, which is first in the division outright. Neither number has a counterpart on the other side of the cage — this is two different sports negotiating over the same fifteen minutes.

7.89 / 3.58
O'Neill SLpM (3rd) against Moura TD/15 (1st)
Where Moura's fight ends

The Control Cliff

Moura holds 139 seconds of control in the first round, 134 in the second, and 31 in the third. Her ground share falls from 49.2% to 43.9% to 0.0%, and her accuracy from 45% to 43% to 27%. The wrestling that wins her rounds measurably runs out, and it runs out in the exact round where O'Neill peaks.

31
Moura's average third-round control, in seconds
Why she cannot choose to strike

The Accuracy Cliff

At 37% striking accuracy — 29th of 32 — standing exchanges are not competitive for Moura even when she wants them. Her one Octagon loss came exactly this way: a split decision to Denise Gomes at strawweight, in a fight where the takedowns did not carry her.

The honest zero

Nobody Here Knocks Anybody Down

O'Neill has scored one Octagon knockdown (Fernandes) and absorbed none; Moura has scored none and absorbed one (Wang Cong). O'Neill's KO/TKO wins remain mostly ground-and-pound stoppages rather than one-punch endings, and Moura's scored-knockdown average is still a measured 0.00.

0
Knockdowns between them in 29 UFC rounds
And by exactly this

One Woman Has Been Finished

Ariane da Silva submitted Casey O'Neill in the second round at UFC 296 — the only stoppage defeat of her career. Eduarda Moura has five career submission wins. That single overlap is why the dog's 15% submission bucket is her largest single path, larger than her knockout and equal to O'Neill's.

The Five-Round Clock

Casey O'Neill danger windowEduarda Moura danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The entry round

Moura's peak control window at 139 seconds, and 49.2% of her offence lands on the ground. O'Neill's slowest round at 33.4 strikes and her lowest accuracy at 48% — this is the five minutes Moura most needs.

Critical Insight
This fight has a visible expiry date on one side of it. Moura's scoring mechanism front-loads — 273 of her 304 recorded seconds of control land in the first two rounds — while O'Neill's output climbs from 33.4 to 39.8 across the same span. If the fight is one-all after ten minutes, the third round belongs decisively to the Scot. Moura's task is to make sure it is two-nil instead.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Casey O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy — 3rd and 6th of 32 active women's flyweights. Eduarda Moura attempts 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes, which is 1st in the division. Neither number has an answer on the other side.

2

Moura's control time reads 139, 134 and 31 seconds by round while O'Neill's output reads 33.4, 37.0 and 39.8. The wrestler has to win this in the first ten minutes, because the last five are not hers.

3

Model: O'Neill 54% / Moura 46%, conviction 4/10 — trimmed from 56-44 because Moura's divisional-best takedown volume and 80% takedown defence had been underweighted against the pace.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

O'Neill Decision — 33%O'Neill KO/TKO — 15%O'Neill Submission — 6%Moura Decision — 25%Moura Submission — 15%Moura KO/TKO — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Casey O'Neill gold · Eduarda Moura orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The volume gap

7.89 significant strikes per minute against 2.57, at 52% accuracy against 37%. O'Neill's decision bucket at 33 of 100 is the largest single outcome on the page, and it is built entirely from standing minutes.

Division-leading takedown volume

Moura's 3.58 attempts per fifteen minutes is first of 32. Against a 70% defence that still projects to roughly one landed takedown per round — enough to make the 25-point Moura decision bucket the second-largest on the page.

The control cliff

139, 134, then 31 seconds of control by round. The model discounts Moura's third round heavily, which is why her decision path sits ten points behind O'Neill's despite the wrestling edge.

The submission overlap

Five career submissions for Moura against the one stoppage on O'Neill's record — a second-round submission by Ariane da Silva at UFC 296. That single fact is worth 15 of Moura's 46 win-shares.

Sample asymmetry

O'Neill has 18 recorded Octagon rounds and 8 bouts; Moura has 11 and 4, one of them at a different weight. The lean is capped at 54 partly because the wrestler's ceiling is the less-measured of the two.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Volume Decision

O'Neill circles, jabs, and out-lands Moura by better than two to one across fifteen minutes. A takedown lands here and there but never turns into a round, and the third — 39.8 against 14.3 — settles the cards. The single most likely outcome on this page.

Scripted outcomes for Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Casey O'Neill win probability
0%
15%
33%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Fifteen points, drawn from two second-round ground-and-pound stoppages and the first-round TKO of Fernandes in March 2026. She has one scored knockdown (Fernandes); most of this bucket is still accumulation and top position.

  • Her largest bucket and the largest on the page. Two and a half times Moura's output at fifteen points of accuracy advantage is a scorecard that writes itself, provided the mat minutes stay short.

  • Six points. 0.70 submission attempts per fifteen minutes is 7th of 32 in the division, and she submitted Lara Procopio in the third round — but Moura defends 80% of takedowns and lives in scrambles.

Eduarda Moura win probability
0%
6%
25%
15%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six points, the smallest bucket on the page. Her scored-knockdown average is a measured 0.00 across eleven Octagon rounds and her striking accuracy is 37% — a stoppage would have to come from ground strikes, not a clean shot.

  • Twenty-five points and the control-time path: 139 and 134 seconds in the opening two rounds, exactly the shape of her decisions over Lauren Murphy and Veronica Hardy.

  • Fifteen points, tied for the second-largest bucket on the page and the dog's signature route. Five career submissions against the one fighter here who has been finished — by submission, in the second round, at UFC 296.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Eduarda
R2
Casey
R3
Casey
29-28 O'Neill
Moura banks the opening round on 139 seconds of control, O'Neill takes the last ten minutes
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Moura
Two entries a round land early and the mat minutes outweigh a large strike deficit
The wrestling-decision version — 25 of her 46 win-shares
30-27 O'Neill
Every entry is stuffed and the volume runs unopposed for fifteen minutes
Live if the 70% takedown defence holds all three rounds

Model and price

Casey O'Neill

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
54%
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Reference quote-180 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-16.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
-7.9 pp

Eduarda Moura

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
46%
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Reference quote+153 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+16.4%
Edge vs no-vig market
+7.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Casey O'Neill

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Eduarda Moura

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

2 value leans8 fair9 avoid
Under 2.5 Rounds+197+8.3ppDecision — Eduarda Moura by Unanimous Decision+350+2.8pp
Full prop table (19)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Under 2.5 Rounds+197BetOnline33.7%42%2.38+8.3+24.7%Value lean
Decision — Eduarda Moura by Unanimous Decision+350BetOnline22.2%25%4.00+2.8+12.5%Value lean
Double Chance — Eduarda Moura by Submission or Decision+170BetOnline37.0%40%2.50+3.0+8.0%Fair price
Goes the Distance — No+155BetOnline39.2%42%2.38+2.8+7.1%Fair price
Eduarda Moura by KO/TKO/DQ+1600BetOnline5.9%6%16.67+0.1+2.0%Fair price
Eduarda Moura by Points+300BetOnline25.0%25%4.000.00.0%Fair price
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ+360BetOnline21.7%21%4.76-0.7-3.4%Fair price
Eduarda Moura by Submission+525BetOnline16.0%15%6.67-1.0-6.3%Fair price
Casey O'Neill by KO/TKO/DQ+500BetOnline16.7%15%6.67-1.7-10.0%Fair price
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission+300BetOnline25.0%21%4.76-4.0-16.0%Fair price
Casey O'Neill by Submission+900BetOnline10.0%6%16.67-4.0-40.0%Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — Yes-190BetOnline65.5%58%1.72-7.5-11.5%Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance-190BetOnline65.5%58%1.72-7.5-11.5%Avoid / overpriced
Double Chance — Casey O'Neill by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision-150BetOnline60.0%48%2.08-12.0-20.0%Avoid / overpriced
Over 2.5 Rounds-235BetOnline70.1%58%1.72-12.1-17.3%Avoid / overpriced
Decision — Casey O'Neill by Unanimous Decision+120BetOnline45.5%33%3.03-12.5-27.4%Avoid / overpriced
Casey O'Neill by Points+100BetOnline50.0%33%3.03-17.0-34.0%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Eduarda Moura+130BetOnline43.5%21%4.76-22.5-51.7%Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Casey O'Neill-160BetOnline61.5%21%4.76-40.5-65.9%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Moura +153 is the moneyline value — 46% model vs 39.5% implied on the division's #1 wrestler. O'Neill by points at +100 is the market's worst number: 50% implied against a 33% modal path. Under 2.5 at +197 (+8.3pp) and Goes the Distance No at +155 align with a fight that often ends before the third round when Moura's control lands early. Moura by submission (+525) and by points (+300) are fairly priced. Avoid O'Neill inside-distance markets — her finish equity is 21 of 100 combined, not the 61.5% the -160 line implies.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A genuine lean rather than a call. O'Neill owns the larger of the two edges — eighteen composite points of striking against twelve of grappling — and owns the round the fight is most likely to be decided in. Four out of ten because flyweight judging rewards the thing Moura leads the division in. Lean: Casey O'Neill.

What backs the lean

  • 7.89 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy — 3rd and 6th of 32 — against 2.57 at 37%.

  • Output that climbs every round to 39.8 in the third, against control time that falls to 31 seconds.

  • Two inches of reach, four fewer years, and twice the Octagon sample.

  • 0.70 submissions per fifteen minutes of her own — 7th in the division — so Moura's entries carry a cost.

What limits it

  • Moura's 3.58 takedowns per fifteen minutes is first of 32, and 139 seconds of first-round control is exactly what 125-pound judging rewards.

  • O'Neill absorbs 5.53 per minute (27th of 32) and has been submitted in the second round before — by the same finish Moura owns five of.

  • Moura defends 80% of takedowns and absorbs 2.50 per minute; there is no cheap way to hurt her.

  • Her sample is four Octagon bouts across two divisions, so her ceiling is the less-measured of the two and the model's downside is asymmetric.

Final Assessment

This is the cleanest style collision on the UFC 331 prelims and the numbers refuse to blur it. Casey O'Neill is third of 32 women's flyweights in output and sixth in accuracy; Eduarda Moura is first in takedown volume and sixth in takedown defence. There is not a single statistic on the comparison table that both women can plausibly claim. The fight is a referendum on which set of numbers gets to run.

What tips it is the clock. Moura's scoring engine front-loads — 139 seconds of control in the first round, 134 in the second, 31 in the third — while O'Neill's output does the opposite, rising from 33.4 significant strikes to 39.8. In three rounds that asymmetry matters enormously: Moura needs a two-nil lead going into a final five minutes where she has historically thrown 14.3 strikes at 27% accuracy with no ground control at all.

The honest read: take O'Neill, and treat every successful Moura entry as a round changing hands. The version where the Scot loses is not a slow grind — it is two clean takedowns in the first ten minutes, or the second-round submission that Ariane da Silva already showed is available. At 54-46 with conviction of four, that is a lean, not a call.

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