Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja – UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN EVENT · FLYWEIGHT · 5 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Joshua Van

17W2L

Volume Striker

Alexandre Pantoja

“The Cannibal”

30W6L

Submission Grappler

Twenty-six seconds decided a title. Twenty-five minutes decides this one.

FlyweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Twenty-six seconds settled an arm injury, not a championship. Van has to keep this standing long enough for 8.43 strikes a minute to score; Pantoja has to turn 2.79 takedowns and 1.00 submissions per fifteen into attacking positions over five rounds. Neither moneyline is the play — the method markets are.

Paths that change the fight

Joshua VanReach the second round on his feet. He lands 58.7 significant strikes in an average second round and 42.3 in a third, and 75% takedown defence is the tool that keeps the fight standing long enough for those numbers to arrive.
Alexandre PantojaMake it a wrestling match and make it long. 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 1.00 submission attempts, six Octagon chokes, and 152 seconds of average control in a fourth round nobody has ever taken Joshua Van into.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10

The first fight covered 1.7% of a championship bout and ended on an arm injury — it tested nothing.
Pantoja attempts 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes with six Octagon submissions; Van has 0.20 submission attempts and has never faced a back take in a title fight.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Joshua Van

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 52%
Fair decimal odds: 1.92

Reference quote-132 (BetOnline)

Alexandre Pantoja

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 48%
Fair decimal odds: 2.08

Reference quote+113 (BetOnline)

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Joshua Van is the UFC flyweight champion because of twenty-six seconds. At UFC 323 on December 6, 2025 he stopped Alexandre Pantoja by KO/TKO at 0:26 of the first round, an arm-injury sequence rather than a sustained beating — the shortest route to the flyweight belt in the division's history. Nothing about that result is disputed; what is disputed is what it proved. Van lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute, second among 45 active flyweights and more than double the divisional average of 3.82. Pantoja attempts 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 47% accuracy with 1.00 submission attempts per fifteen and six submission finishes inside the Octagon. Neither of those profiles was on screen long enough at UFC 323 to be tested. The model lands at 52-48 Van and a conviction of 3 out of 10 — the honest price of a rematch where the first fight ended before the fight started.

Joshua Van

Attribute

Alexandre Pantoja

2412-year gap

Age

5'5"

Height

5'5"

65"

Reach

+2" Pantoja67"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

4oz Fight Club

Team

American Top Team

Jun 24, 2023

Octagon Debut

Jan 28, 2017

Octagon Bouts

Champion — won at UFC 323

Title Status

Former champion, immediate rematch

High-volume pocket striking

Fighting Style

Chain wrestling into submissions

Two men of exactly the same height, 5'5", separated by two inches of reach and twelve years. Pantoja owns the reach at 67 inches and eighteen Octagon appearances since January 2017; Van owns the clock at 24 years old with ten Octagon bouts since June 2023. Neither has a published leg reach. Nothing here is a size mismatch — the physical story is entirely about mileage, and it points in opposite directions depending on which round you look at.

Venue Factor
Five rounds is the whole argument. Pantoja has fought forty-eight recorded Octagon rounds including six championship rounds, averaging 152 seconds of control in the fourth and 155 in the fifth. Van has fought twenty-seven rounds in the available statistical sample and none of them a fourth or a fifth, but that snapshot closes before UFC 328: he took Tatsuro Taira into the championship rounds on 9 May 2026 and stopped him at 1:32 of the fifth, absorbing more than ten minutes of ground control on the way and still out-landing him 131 to 55. His title win lasted twenty-six seconds; his title defence lasted twenty-one minutes. Los Angeles will be loud early, and the crowd energy suits the champion's opening pace, but the map of this fight past the fifteen-minute mark exists for exactly one of these two men.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Joshua Van

Pro Record

17-2-0

UFC Record

10-1 across eleven bouts since June 2023

Streak

Seven straight wins — reigning champion, one title defence (Taira, R5 TKO)

Finish Rate

3 of 9 UFC wins by KO/TKO; no submission wins

Avg Fight Time

12:26

Chin · Durable but hittable — 1 knockdown absorbed across UFC rounds at 5.82 SApMSOS · ChampionshipHigh-volume pocket striker

Three years, eleven Octagon fights, one loss, a world title and one defence of it. Van debuted in June 2023 and built his climb on volume: unanimous decisions over Kevin Borjas, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Edgar Chairez, Cody Durden and Rei Tsuruya, then a third-round TKO of Bruno Silva at UFC 316 and a decision over Brandon Royval at UFC 317. Six months later he was champion, having needed twenty-six seconds against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323, and in May 2026 he defended it by stopping Tatsuro Taira at 1:32 of the fifth — his first trip past the third round. The rate line underneath that run is genuinely divisional-outlier: 8.43 significant strikes per minute (2nd of 45) at 57% accuracy (4th), with 75% takedown defence (6th) and 0.20 submission attempts per fifteen. The cost is written just as plainly — 5.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 44th of 45 active flyweights. He wins firefights; he does not avoid them.

Alexandre Pantoja

Pro Record

30-6-0

UFC Record

14-4 across eighteen bouts since January 2017

Streak

Lost his last — the title, to Van at UFC 323

Finish Rate

8 of 14 UFC wins inside the distance — 6 submissions, 2 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

11:56

Chin · Iron — 1 knockdown absorbed in 48 recorded roundsSOS · ChampionshipChain-wrestling submission grappler

The most decorated body of work in the division. Pantoja debuted in the Octagon in January 2017, beat Brandon Moreno twice, took the belt from Moreno by split decision at UFC 290, and defended it four times — Brandon Royval by unanimous decision at UFC 296, Steve Erceg by unanimous decision at UFC 301, Kai Asakura by second-round submission at UFC 310, Kai Kara-France by third-round submission at UFC 317. Six of his fourteen Octagon wins are submissions; his 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes rank 7th of 45 and his 47% takedown accuracy 9th. The record has exactly one blemish in the last three years, and it lasted twenty-six seconds.

Joshua Van

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Alexandre Pantoja

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Joshua Vansignature weapons

Second-Round Volume Surge58.7 significant strikes landed in an average second round across nine of them — the highest single-round figure on this card. Bruno Silva and Felipe Bunes both broke after it

×2

The Pocket Right Hand7 knockdowns in 27 Octagon rounds and the exchange that ended UFC 323 at 0:26

×1

Alexandre Pantojasignature weapons

Back Take into the ChokeKai Kara-France R3, Kai Asakura R2, Brandon Royval R2, Alex Perez R1, Neil Seery R3, Yuta Sasaki R1 — 1.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, 18th of 45

×6

First-Round Pressure KOWilson Reis at 2:58 and Matt Schnell at 4:17, both in the opening round. Four knockdowns in 48 recorded rounds

×2

Joshua Van

Tatsuro Taira

TKO — Front kick to the body & punches

Opponent context: elite

RR5 (1:32)

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026 (title defence)

Alexandre Pantoja

KO/TKO — title win

Opponent context: elite

RR1 (0:26)

UFC 323 — Dec 6, 2025

Brandon Royval

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC 317 — Jun 28, 2025

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (4:01)

UFC 316 — Jun 7, 2025

Rei Tsuruya

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC 313 — Mar 8, 2025

Pattern

Six straight wins and a belt, built on two shapes. Four of the last five went the full three rounds and he won every one on volume — Royval, Tsuruya, Durden, and before them Chairez and Zhumagulov. The two that ended early tell the other half: Bruno Silva at 4:01 of the third, after two rounds of accumulation, and Pantoja at 0:26 of the first, on one exchange. Everything before UFC 328 was inside fifteen minutes; the Taira defence was the first time he was asked for more, and he answered it with a fifth-round stoppage after being controlled on the mat for over ten of those minutes.

Alexandre Pantoja

Joshua Van

KO/TKO — lost the title

Opponent context: elite

RR1 (0:26)

UFC 323 — Dec 6, 2025

Kai Kara-France

Submission

Opponent context: elite

RR3 (1:55)

UFC 317 — Jun 28, 2025

Kai Asakura

Submission

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (2:05)

UFC 310 — Dec 7, 2024

Steve Erceg

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR5

UFC 301 — May 4, 2024

Brandon Royval

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5

UFC 296 — Dec 16, 2023

Pattern

Four title defences and then twenty-six seconds. Before UFC 323 he had beaten Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura by submission and taken Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval to five-round decisions — the two profiles that define him, the finisher and the deep-water champion, alternating. He has never lost twice in a row in the Octagon and has never been finished by strikes over a full fight. The Van result is the only entry in three years that does not fit the pattern, and it is the only one that mattered.

Joshua Van

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Alexandre Pantoja

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both donuts are scoped to UFC wins only — Van's nine and Pantoja's fourteen — because the editorial assessment's career method table for Van sums to fifteen wins against a 17-2 record. Read at Octagon scope the split is stark: Van has three KO/TKOs, six decisions and zero submissions in ten fights, while Pantoja has six submissions, six decisions and two KO/TKOs in eighteen. Van has never submitted anyone and has never been submitted. Pantoja has finished eight opponents inside the distance and three quarters of those finishes were chokes. Neither man is guessing about how he wants this to end.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Joshua	Alexandre
Head-to-head — UFC 323, Dec 6, 2025	W· KO/TKO R1 (0:26) — won the title	L· stopped on an arm injury at 0:26
The only shared sample: twenty-six seconds of a scheduled twenty-five minutes, which is 1.7% of a championship fight
Brandon Royval	W· UD3 (UFC 317, Jun 2025)	W· UD5 (UFC 296) and W · SUB R2 (2021)
The only genuine common opponent. Van needed fifteen minutes and won on volume; Pantoja beat Royval twice, once by choke and once across five championship rounds

Joshua

Alexandre

Composites favour Pantoja by seven and the model still favours Van by four. That inversion is the whole fight: the scoreboard says champion, the numbers say the more complete fighter is the challenger, and neither has been tested against the other for longer than twenty-six seconds.

Metric	Joshua	Alexandre
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:26	11:56
Pace Tier	Elite — 8.43 SLpM (2nd/45)	Measured — 4.38 SLpM (12th/45)
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	182% (42.3 vs 23.3 sig)	86% (16.7 vs 19.5 sig)
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	R1 is his quietest round — 23.3 sig, 0.10 KD	19.5 sig with 87 sec of R1 control
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	1 fight — R5 TKO of Taira, UFC 328 (not in the round database)	6 rounds — 152 sec R4 control, 155 sec R5

Archetype Base Rate

High-Volume Striker 52%48% Chain-Wrestling Submission Grappler

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 52-48 line is the editorial assessment's recalibration from 54-46, trimmed specifically because a 0:26 arm-injury stoppage does not evidence a twenty-five-minute answer to 2.79 takedowns and 1.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes. The Taira defence is a partial answer — twenty-one minutes, ten of them controlled on the mat, and a finish in the fifth.

Joshua VanAlexandre Pantoja

Flyweight

· 45 fighters

Stat	Joshua	Joshua rank	Div avg	Alexandre rank	Alexandre
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	8.43	2/45elite	3.82	12/45	4.38
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	57%	4/45elite	46.6%	12/45	50%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	58%	15/45	55.2%	37/45	49%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.82	44/45	3.47	32/45	3.88
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.60	12/45	0.82	23/45	0.28
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.38	—	—	—	1.13
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.82	28/45	1.57	7/45elite	2.79
TD Acc	61%	5/45	36.7%	9/45	47%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	75%	6/45elite	61.6%	16/45	69%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.20	32/45	0.78	18/45	1.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:26	—	—	—	11:56

Statistical Verdict
The table splits cleanly down the middle. Van owns four top-six ranks — 2nd in output, 4th in accuracy, 5th in takedown accuracy, 6th in takedown defence — and one of the division's worst rows anywhere: 44th of 45 in strikes absorbed per minute, at 5.82 against a divisional average of 3.47. Pantoja owns 7th in takedown volume and 9th in takedown accuracy, and pays for it with 33rd in striking defence. The champion is the more dangerous fighter in every phase he chooses and the most hittable fighter in the division while he does it.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Joshua Van

He starts quiet and detonates. 23.3 significant strikes in an average first round becomes 58.7 in the second — the single largest round-to-round jump in either fighter's profile — then settles at 42.3 in the third.
84.1% of his first-round offence lands at distance and 92.3% of his third-round offence does. He barely uses the clinch and has 3 seconds of average first-round control. This is a pure striking profile.
Rows for the fourth and fifth rounds are blank because no data exists: across ten Octagon bouts he has never fought past the third. His UFC 323 title win lasted twenty-six seconds.

Alexandre Pantoja

The only fighter on this page with championship-round evidence: three fourth rounds and three fifth rounds, averaging 152 and 155 seconds of control respectively — roughly half of each round spent on top.
His striking output decays through the regulation rounds — 19.5, 21.7, 16.7 — then jumps back to 27.0 in the fifth, his highest-volume round of all, with 53% accuracy.
15.7% of his first-round offence lands on the ground and his first-round control averages 87 seconds against Van's 3. The grappling starts immediately, not as a late adjustment.

Critical Insight
Put the two profiles side by side and the fight has a shape. Minutes 5:00 to 10:00 belong to Van by an enormous margin — 58.7 significant strikes to 21.7 is nearly a three-to-one round. Minutes 15:00 to 25:00 belong to Pantoja by default, because they are the only minutes on the page where one man has data and the other has none. The question the rematch actually asks is whether Van's second-round surge arrives before Pantoja's championship rounds do.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Joshua

71%

20%

Head

71%

Body

20%

Legs

Alexandre

63%

22%

15%

Head

63%

Body

22%

Legs

15%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JoshuaAlexandre

88%Distance81%

8%Clinch10%

4%Ground9%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceJoshua owns it

8.43 SLpM (2nd/45) at 57% accuracy against 4.38 at 50%, with 84-92% of Van's offence landing at distance

Pocket / ExchangesJoshua owns it

7 knockdowns in 27 rounds against Pantoja's 33rd-of-45 striking defence — offset by Van absorbing 5.82 per minute

ClinchAlexandre owns it

Pantoja's second round is 16.0% clinch offence and 87 seconds of R1 control; Van's clinch share falls to 3.6% by the third

GroundAlexandre owns it

2.79 TD/15 at 47% accuracy and six Octagon submissions against 0.20 submission attempts — into 75% takedown defence

Path to Victory

Joshua Van

Reach the second round on his feet. He lands 58.7 significant strikes in an average second round and 42.3 in a third, and 75% takedown defence is the tool that keeps the fight standing long enough for those numbers to arrive.

Why they win

Second in the division for output

8.43 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy against a flyweight average of 3.82 and 46.6%. Pantoja lands 4.38 at 50%. Every minute upright is a minute Van banks.

75% takedown defence

Sixth of 45 active flyweights, and pointed directly at the only phase where his opponent is elite. Pantoja converts 47% of his takedown attempts against the field; Van's number says 19%.

He already did it

KO/TKO at 0:26 of the first round at UFC 323, and the belt to prove it. Whatever the mechanism, the result stands and the champion walks in first.

Twelve years

24 against 36. Pantoja has 48 recorded Octagon rounds and eighteen bouts since 2017; Van has 27 rounds and has never been in a war he did not choose.

The second-round cliff

58.7 significant strikes in an average second round against a man whose own second-round output is 21.7 and whose striking defence ranks 33rd of 45.

The gameplan

1
Survive the first ninety seconds
Pantoja's first-round control averages 87 seconds and 15.7% of his opening offence is ground strikes. The champion's danger window is the one where his own output is lowest — 23.3 significant strikes, his quietest round.
2
Fight at distance, always
84-92% of his offence lands at range and he has 3 seconds of average first-round control. The clinch is where takedown entries live; there is no version of this fight he wins from a body lock.
3
Force the second round early
58.7 significant strikes in an average second round is the single biggest number on this page. Every exchange that drags the fight into minute six is worth more than any individual shot.
4
Sprawl and restart, never scramble
75% takedown defence is elite; 0.20 submission attempts per fifteen minutes means he has no offence on the mat. Getting up is the entire ground gameplan.
5
Bank the first three rounds
He has no fourth-round data because he has never needed one. Against a challenger averaging 152 seconds of R4 control, a 3-0 card is worth more than a finish attempt.

Path to Victory

Alexandre Pantoja

Make it a wrestling match and make it long. 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 1.00 submission attempts, six Octagon chokes, and 152 seconds of average control in a fourth round nobody has ever taken Joshua Van into.

Why they win

Twenty-six seconds proves nothing

The first fight covered 1.7% of a championship bout and ended on an arm injury. Pantoja's 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 1.00 submission attempts were never on screen.

Six Octagon submissions

Kara-France, Asakura, Royval, Perez, Seery, Sasaki. Van has zero submission wins, 0.20 attempts per fifteen on his rate line, and has never had to survive a back take in a title fight.

The measured championship rounds are his alone

Six rounds of R4-R5 data, 152 and 155 seconds of control, and a fifth-round output of 27.0 that is higher than any of his regulation rounds. Van has been there once — the Taira defence — but it falls outside the round database, so his R4 and R5 rows are empty.

Van absorbs 5.82 per minute

44th of 45 active flyweights, against a divisional average of 3.47. Pantoja does not need knockout power to hurt him — he needs entries, and being hit is how you earn them.

Two inches and a first-round grip

67-inch reach against 65, and 87 seconds of average first-round control against Van's 3. He is the only man in the cage who has ever made this fight a grappling match.

The gameplan

1
Level change behind the reach
Two inches and 47% takedown accuracy, 9th of 45. The jab is not the weapon — it is the ticket to the shot underneath it.
2
Make the first round a grappling round
87 seconds of average first-round control against a champion who averages 3. Take the minutes where Van's own output is lowest and turn them into control time.
3
Hunt the back, not the pin
Six Octagon submissions, four of them from back control. Van has never been submitted and has never faced a submission attempt in a championship fight.
4
Survive minutes 5:00 to 10:00
The second round is where Van lands 58.7 significant strikes. Pantoja's own second round is his heaviest clinch round at 16.0% — the exchange he wants there is a body lock, not a boxing match.
5
Drag it to the fourth
27.0 significant strikes at 53% accuracy in an average fifth round, and 155 seconds of control. He is the only man in the building who knows what that feels like.

Danger Zone

How Joshua Van loses

The first clean takedown arrives in round two and the fight never comes back up — 152 seconds of fourth-round control is what that looks like for twenty minutes.
He absorbs 5.82 significant strikes per minute against a challenger who does not need to knock him out, only to make him tired enough to be wrestled.
Rounds four and five arrive and he has no map for them. Ten Octagon fights, zero championship rounds, against a man with six of them.

Danger Zone

How Alexandre Pantoja loses

The arm, or anything else, gives out again early and the rematch ends the same way the first fight did — the outcome that would settle the question permanently.
The takedowns fail against 75% defence and he spends the second round absorbing 58.7 significant strikes with a striking defence ranked 33rd of 45.
At 36, twenty-five minutes of chasing a 24-year-old who lands nearly nine strikes a minute is the version of this fight where the age gap stops being a talking point.

The fight's central problem

Twenty-Six Seconds

The UFC 323 title fight lasted 0:26 of a scheduled 25:00 — 1.7% of a championship bout. Joshua Van is the legitimate champion and the result is not in dispute; what is in dispute is whether anything about Alexandre Pantoja's 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 1.00 submission attempts was actually tested. The rematch is not a re-run. It is the first fight.

1.7%

of a championship fight was completed at UFC 323

Where the champion wins

The Second-Round Cliff

Van lands 23.3 significant strikes in an average first round and 58.7 in an average second — a jump of 152%, across nine second rounds. Pantoja's own second round is 21.7 with a striking defence ranked 33rd of 45. If minutes 5:00 to 10:00 are contested standing, the round is close to a three-to-one blowout.

58.7

Van's average second-round significant strikes landed

The blind spot

Rounds Four and Five Do Not Exist

Across ten Octagon bouts Joshua Van has never fought a fourth round. Alexandre Pantoja has six of them, averaging 152 seconds of control in the fourth and 155 in the fifth, with his highest-volume round of all coming in the fifth at 27.0 significant strikes. Ten minutes of this fight are mapped for exactly one man.

0 vs 6

championship rounds on record

The cost of the volume

Forty-Fourth of Forty-Five

Van absorbs 5.82 significant strikes per minute — second-worst among 45 active flyweights, against a divisional average of 3.47. He has only been knocked down once in 27 rounds, so the chin holds. But a challenger who needs entries rather than knockouts is exactly the opponent that number rewards.

5.82

Van SApM — 44th of 45 flyweights

The unresolved column

Zero Submission Offence, Zero Submission Losses

Van's submission rate is 0.20 attempts per fifteen minutes and he has never been submitted. Pantoja has six Octagon submissions and 1.00 attempts per fifteen. One of those two facts is about to be tested for the first time, and no amount of striking data forecasts which way it goes.

The Five-Round Clock

Joshua Van danger windowAlexandre Pantoja danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The grappling round

Pantoja averages 87 seconds of first-round control and 15.7% ground offence; Van averages 3 seconds of control and his quietest output of the fight at 23.3. The champion's ghost — a 0:26 finish — lives here too, but the round-by-round record says this is the challenger's.

Critical Insight
The clock is a barbell. The first five minutes belong to the challenger's grappling and the last ten belong to his experience; the middle ten belong overwhelmingly to the champion's volume. Van needs the fight to be decided between minute five and minute fifteen. Pantoja needs it decided anywhere else.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

The first fight lasted twenty-six seconds — 1.7% of a championship bout — and ended on an arm injury. Joshua Van is the rightful champion and the rematch is effectively the first real meeting.

Van lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute (2nd of 45 flyweights) and absorbs 5.82 (44th). Pantoja attempts 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes with six Octagon submissions. Van's 75% takedown defence is the hinge.

Van 52% / Pantoja 48%, conviction 3/10 — the lowest on the UFC 331 main card, because Van has never fought a fourth round and Pantoja has six of them.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Van Decision — 28%Van KO/TKO — 20%Van Submission — 4%Pantoja Submission — 25%Pantoja Decision — 17%Pantoja KO/TKO — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Joshua Van gold · Alexandre Pantoja orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The rematch has no usable tape

Twenty-six seconds of shared history, ended by an arm injury. Every projection on this page is built from separate profiles rather than from a head-to-head sample, which is why conviction is 3 out of 10 rather than 6.

Volume against grappling

8.43 significant strikes per minute against 2.79 takedowns per fifteen. Van's decision bucket (28 of 100) and Pantoja's submission bucket (25 of 100) are the two largest outcomes on the page and they are the same argument seen from opposite sides.

Takedown defence at 75%

Sixth of 45, and the single number keeping the champion favoured. If it holds at that rate across twenty-five minutes, Pantoja needs roughly fourteen attempts to complete three takedowns.

The championship-round void

Van has no fourth or fifth round on record; Pantoja has six with 152 and 155 seconds of average control. Ten of the twenty-five minutes are projected for the champion rather than observed.

Age and mileage

24 against 36, but 27 Octagon rounds against 48. The younger man has the fresher body and the shallower experience, and a five-round title fight tests both.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Pace Defence

Van stuffs the early entries, survives to minute five, and the second-round surge does the rest — 58.7 significant strikes a round against a challenger who lands 21.7. He banks three rounds and rides a coasting fourth and fifth to a 48-47 or 49-46 card. The largest single bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Joshua Van win probability

20%

28%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty points. 7 knockdowns in 27 Octagon rounds against a striking defence ranked 33rd of 45, and a stoppage of this exact opponent already on the record — though that one came at 0:26 on an arm injury rather than a knockout sequence.
His largest bucket. Three of his last five went the distance and he won each on output; 8.43 strikes a minute for twenty-five minutes is a scorecard that writes itself, provided the takedown defence holds.
Four points. He has 0.20 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no submission wins in ten Octagon bouts — these are scramble and ground-and-pound outcomes, not a hunted path.

Alexandre Pantoja win probability

17%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

Six points, the smallest bucket on the page. Two Octagon KO/TKOs, both in first rounds seven years ago, and a knockdown average of 0.28 against a champion who has been dropped once in 27 rounds.
Seventeen points, and the shape of the Erceg and Royval title defences — five rounds of control time against a man who has never fought one. Capped by a 4.38 to 8.43 output deficit that judges struggle to ignore.
The single largest outcome for the challenger and the clearest value on the page. Six Octagon submissions, 1.00 attempts per fifteen minutes, against an opponent with 0.20 submission attempts per fifteen who has never been submitted.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Joshua

Alexandre

Joshua

48-47 Van

The champion banks the middle rounds and holds on late

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

48-47 Pantoja

Control time swings the championship rounds

The competitive version, and close behind

49-46 Van

The takedowns never land and the volume runs unopposed

His cleanest decision outcome

Model and price

Joshua Van

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 52%
Fair decimal odds: 1.92

Reference quote-132 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: -8.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: -2.8 pp

Alexandre Pantoja

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 48%
Fair decimal odds: 2.08

Reference quote+113 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: +2.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: +2.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Joshua Van

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.93 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Alexandre Pantoja

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.09 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans6 fair11 avoid

Goes the Distance — Yes+175+8.6ppFighter Wins Inside Distance — Goes to Decision+175+8.6ppHow Will Fight End — Goes the Distance+175+8.6ppDecision — Joshua Van by Unanimous Decision+375+6.9pp+2 more in table

Full prop table (23)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair decimal odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Goes the Distance — Yes	+175BetOnline	36.4%	45%	2.22	+8.6	+23.8%	Value lean
Fighter Wins Inside Distance — Goes to Decision	+175BetOnline	36.4%	45%	2.22	+8.6	+23.8%	Value lean
How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance	+175BetOnline	36.4%	45%	2.22	+8.6	+23.8%	Value lean
Decision — Joshua Van by Unanimous Decision	+375BetOnline	21.1%	28%	3.57	+6.9	+33.0%	Value lean
Joshua Van by Points	+325BetOnline	23.5%	28%	3.57	+4.5	+19.0%	Value lean
Alexandre Pantoja R2 by Submission	+1100BetOnline	8.3%	12%	8.33	+3.7	+44.0%	Value lean
Under 4.5 Rounds	-170BetOnline	63.0%	65%	1.54	+2.0	+3.2%	Fair price
Joshua Van by Submission	+2000BetOnline	4.8%	4%	25.00	-0.8	-16.0%	Fair price
Double Chance — Alexandre Pantoja by Submission or Decision	+130BetOnline	43.5%	42%	2.38	-1.5	-3.4%	Fair price
Alexandre Pantoja by Submission	+260BetOnline	27.8%	25%	4.00	-2.8	-10.0%	Fair price
Alexandre Pantoja by Points	+400BetOnline	20.0%	17%	5.88	-3.0	-15.0%	Fair price
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission	+210BetOnline	32.3%	29%	3.45	-3.3	-10.1%	Fair price
Fighter Wins Inside Distance — Alexandre Pantoja	+190BetOnline	34.5%	31%	3.23	-3.5	-10.1%	Avoid / overpriced
Alexandre Pantoja by KO/TKO/DQ	+750BetOnline	11.8%	6%	16.67	-5.8	-49.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Over 4.5 Rounds	+145BetOnline	40.8%	35%	2.86	-5.8	-14.3%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight Goes to Split or Majority Decision — Yes	+600BetOnline	14.3%	8%	12.50	-6.3	-44.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Double Chance — Joshua Van by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision	-120BetOnline	54.5%	48%	2.08	-6.5	-12.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — No	-215BetOnline	68.3%	55%	1.82	-13.3	-19.4%	Avoid / overpriced
Joshua Van by KO/TKO/DQ	+175BetOnline	36.4%	20%	5.00	-16.4	-45.0%	Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ	+130BetOnline	43.5%	26%	3.85	-17.5	-40.2%	Avoid / overpriced
Fighter Wins Inside Distance — Joshua Van	+140BetOnline	41.7%	24%	4.17	-17.7	-42.4%	Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Alexandre Pantoja	-105BetOnline	51.2%	31%	3.23	-20.2	-39.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Joshua Van	-125BetOnline	55.6%	24%	4.17	-31.6	-56.8%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The market agrees this is a coin-flip on the moneyline but disagrees on shape. Goes the Distance at +175 (36.4% implied) against a model 45% is the cleanest card-wide value — Van by points (28) and Pantoja by points (17) combine for 45 of 100. Pantoja by submission at +260 is fairly priced (25 model vs 27.8% implied) but remains the sharpest live-dog method because the 0:26 first fight never tested grappling over five rounds. Van by points at +325 (+4.5pp edge) and Pantoja R2 submission at +1100 (+3.7pp) are the secondary plays. Avoid the inside-distance markets: both fighters' Win Inside Distance lines (-125 / -105) price combined stoppage equity far above the model's 24 and 31.

Conviction

3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A near coin-flip with a title attached. The champion's volume, age and 75% takedown defence carry a four-point lean and nothing more — hard-capped because the only shared tape is twenty-six seconds long and ten of the twenty-five minutes are unmapped for the man favoured to win them. Lean: Joshua Van.

What backs the lean

8.43 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy — 2nd and 4th of 45 active flyweights, against 4.38 and 50%.
75% takedown defence, 6th in the division, aimed directly at the challenger's only elite phase.
A twelve-year age edge, 24 against 36, over a scheduled twenty-five minutes.
The scoreboard already reads champion: KO/TKO at 0:26 of round one at UFC 323.

What limits it

The first fight covered 1.7% of a championship bout and ended on an arm injury — it tested nothing.
Pantoja attempts 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes with six Octagon submissions; Van has 0.20 submission attempts and has never faced a back take in a title fight.
Van has no fourth or fifth round on record. Pantoja has six, averaging 152 and 155 seconds of control.
5.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute is 44th of 45 — the champion is the most hittable fighter in his own division.

Final Assessment

Joshua Van is the flyweight champion and he earned it in the only way that counts, but twenty-six seconds is not a fight — it is 1.7% of one. Everything the market thinks it learned at UFC 323 about how Van handles 2.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes and six career Octagon chokes, it did not actually learn. That is why the model trims to 52-48 and stops there.

The case for the champion is the second round. He lands 58.7 significant strikes in an average one, against a challenger whose own second round is 21.7 and whose striking defence ranks 33rd of 45. Add 75% takedown defence, sixth in the division, and twelve years of youth, and there is a clean, entirely plausible version of this fight where Van simply out-works a 36-year-old for twenty-five minutes.

The case against him is that he has never fought twenty-five minutes. Ten Octagon bouts, twenty-seven rounds, not one of them a fourth. Alexandre Pantoja has six championship rounds with 152 and 155 seconds of average control, and his highest-output round of all is the fifth. Take the champion by a shade, respect the submission at 25 of 100 as the sharpest number on the page, and understand that this is a coin-flip wearing a belt.

Back to UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Card