Patricio Pitbull vs Doo Ho Choi – UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Patricio Pitbull

37W9L

Pressure / Complete MMA

Doo Ho Choi

“The Korean Superboy”

17W4L1D

KO Boxer

Six UFC wins, six knockouts — against a legend with none

FeatherweightCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSeptember 19, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Pitbull cannot out-box 5.00 SLpM and three inches of reach; he has to make it dirty. Choi's six UFC wins are six knockouts. Model 52–48 Pitbull; the book has Choi −270. Pedigree versus power, and almost no UFC sample on the side we lean.

Paths that change the fight

Patricio PitbullMake it dirty and make it long. Clinch entries, body work, takedown attempts against a 59% defence, and a scramble that turns into the submission he has hit roughly a dozen times in his career — because he cannot out-box a man with three inches and 5.00 strikes a minute.
Doo Ho ChoiFight at length and let the arithmetic run. A jab into a 45% accuracy, a right hand on the entry, and an absorption rate of 4.61 that he only has to punish once. His two most likely finishing rounds are the second and third.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 2/10

Every Pitbull rate here comes from three Octagon bouts; the résumé that makes him chalk was built in Bellator.
2.77 landed against 4.61 absorbed is a damage ratio of 0.60 — half the featherweight average.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Patricio Pitbull

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 52%
Fair decimal odds: 1.92

Reference quote+224 (BetOnline)

Doo Ho Choi

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 48%
Fair decimal odds: 2.08

Reference quote-270 (BetOnline)

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Statistics reflect the sample available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The most lopsided résumé on the UFC 331 main card, and the model still calls it 52-48. Patricio Pitbull is 39, holds a career record of 37-9, and is the most decorated featherweight Bellator ever produced — but his Octagon file is three fights long, 1-2, and contains zero finishes. Doo Ho Choi is 35, has been on the UFC roster since November 2014, and every single one of his six Octagon wins ended in a knockout: Puig in 18 seconds, Sicilia in 1:33, Tavares in 2:42, Algeo in the second, Landwehr in the third, Santos in the second. The number that separates them is absorption. Pitbull's UFCStats line reads 2.77 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.61 absorbed — he loses clean exchanges. Choi exists to win clean exchanges.

Patricio Pitbull

Attribute

Doo Ho Choi

Age

4 years35

5'6"

Height

+4" Choi5'10"

67"

Reach

+3" Choi70"

N/A

Leg Reach

39"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Pitbull Brothers

Team

Gumi MMA

Apr 12, 2025 (Yair, L)

Octagon Debut

Nov 22, 2014 (Tavares, W)

Pressure, clinch, scramble submissions

Fighting Style

Boxing-heavy power striking

Choi owns every line of the tape measure that matters: four inches of height, three of reach, and four years. Pitbull's 67-inch reach in a division where he is giving up length to a boxer is the structural problem — he cannot fight this at range and win, because at range the numbers are 5.00 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.77, at 55% accuracy against 45%. What Pitbull owns is the other half of the sheet: 74% takedown defence against Choi's 59%, which ranks 52nd of 78 active featherweights, and roughly a dozen career submission wins to point at that hole.

Venue Factor
Three rounds cuts against the older man. Pitbull's whole edge is accumulation — clinch entries, control minutes, a scramble that turns into a submission — and fifteen minutes is a short window for a fighter who lands 2.77 significant strikes a minute to build a lead. Choi needs one clean sequence: 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, five knockdowns scored across eighteen recorded Octagon rounds, and a first round in which he averages 18.1 significant strikes at 56% accuracy against Pitbull's 5.5.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Patricio Pitbull

Pro Record

37-9-0

UFC Record

1-2 across three bouts since April 2025 — zero finishes

Streak

Coming off a unanimous-decision loss to Aaron Pico (UFC 327, April 2026)

Finish Rate

~65% career (~12 KO + ~12 SUB of 37 wins) · 0% in the UFC

Avg Fight Time

15:00 in the UFC — all three went the distance (16:04 career per DB)

Chin · Average — 2 career KO losses; knocked down once in six Octagon roundsSOS · Championship pedigreePressure / complete MMA (DB style: MMA)

Only three of his forty-six professional fights have happened inside the Octagon, and that ratio is the honest frame for everything on this page. The other forty-three built a Bellator career of roughly 24-6 and multiple featherweight title reigns — late rounds, ugly pressure, scramble submissions, a dozen knockouts and a dozen submissions. The UFC portion, all of it since April 2025, reads 1-2: a unanimous-decision loss to Yair Rodriguez at UFC 314, a unanimous-decision win over Dan Ige at UFC 318, and a unanimous-decision loss to Aaron Pico at UFC 327 in April 2026. Competitive every time, finished never, and the underlying rate line is unflattering: 2.77 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.61 absorbed. Across six recorded Octagon rounds he has scored zero knockdowns and been dropped once.

Doo Ho Choi

Pro Record

17-4-1

UFC Record

6-3-1 across ten bouts — all six wins by KO/TKO

Streak

Three straight stoppages: Algeo, Landwehr, Santos

Finish Rate

~82% career (14 KO of 17 wins) · 100% of his UFC wins

Avg Fight Time

8:11 (UFC)

Chin · Vulnerable — TKO losses to Stephens and Jourdain; 3 knockdowns absorbed in 18 roundsSOS · Mid-tier UFCStriker (DB archetype)

Eleven years and ten months on the UFC roster for ten fights, which is its own story. He arrived in November 2014 and knocked out Thiago Tavares, Sam Sicilia and Juan Manuel Puig in the first round of three consecutive appearances, then ran into the two nights that still define his ceiling: a unanimous-decision loss to Cub Swanson at UFC 206 and a second-round TKO defeat to Jeremy Stephens. What followed was the layoff era — a TKO loss to Charles Jourdain in December 2019, then more than three years away before a majority draw with Kyle Nelson. Since then he has been the fighter the analysis calls a heater: Bill Algeo stopped in the second, Nate Landwehr in the third, Daniel Santos in the second on a Fight of the Night in May 2026. Six Octagon wins, six knockouts, 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, and a takedown defence of 59% that still sits below the division average.

Patricio Pitbull

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Doo Ho Choi

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Patricio Pitbullsignature weapons

Scramble Submission~12 career submission wins (Bellator-inclusive) and 0.50 attempts per fifteen minutes, aimed at a 59% takedown defence ranked 52nd of 78

×12

Clinch Pressure28% of his Octagon significant strikes land in the clinch against Choi's 10% — and zero UFC finishes to show for any of it

×0

Doo Ho Choisignature weapons

Right HandAll six UFC wins by KO/TKO — Puig 0:18, Sicilia 1:33, Tavares 2:42, Algeo R2 3:38, Landwehr R3 3:21, Santos R2 4:29

×6

Second-Round Accumulation21.2 significant strikes in his average second round at 57% accuracy — the round where Algeo and Santos both ended

×2

Patricio Pitbull

Aaron Pico

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (5:00)

UFC 327 — Apr 2026

Dan Ige

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (5:00)

UFC 318 — Jul 2025

Yair Rodriguez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3 (5:00)

UFC 314 — Apr 2025

Jeremy Kennedy

TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Bellator — Mar 2024

Chihiro Suzuki

TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1

Super RIZIN 2 — Jul 2023

Pattern

Three straight UFC decisions against high-level featherweight talent, and not one of them finished by anybody. That is genuinely a durability credential at 39 — Yair Rodriguez, Dan Ige and Aaron Pico all had fifteen minutes and none of them closed the show. It is also a finishing indictment: the last three cards are the entire Octagon file, and the finishing threat that made his Bellator name has not surfaced once. The Chihiro Suzuki first-round TKO in July 2023 is the counter-exhibit the model has to price, because it is the most recent evidence that the chin has a floor.

Doo Ho Choi

Daniel Santos

TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:29)

UFC Fight Night — May 16, 2026 (FOTN)

Nate Landwehr

TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (3:21)

UFC 310 — Dec 2024

Bill Algeo

TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (3:38)

UFC Fight Night — Jul 2024

Kyle Nelson

Decision — Majority draw

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night — Feb 2023

Charles Jourdain

TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (4:32)

UFC Fight Night — Dec 2019

Pattern

Three fights, three stoppages, and the shape of them is consistent: Algeo in the second at 3:38, Landwehr in the third at 3:21, Santos in the second at 4:29. He does not blitz any more — he accumulates and then closes late in a round. His average second round is his biggest, 21.2 significant strikes at 57% accuracy across six recorded rounds. Before the streak sits the Kyle Nelson majority draw and, further back, the two-round TKO defeat to Charles Jourdain that opened the long layoff. The heater is real and it is also only three fights deep after a career of stop-start.

Patricio Pitbull

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Doo Ho Choi

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Read the two charts at their two different scopes, because they cannot honestly share one. The donuts are career-wide and Bellator-inclusive: Pitbull's roughly balanced 32% knockout / 32% submission / 36% decision split describes fifteen years of Bellator title fights, not an Octagon rate, and Choi's 82% knockout share counts fourteen stoppages across seventeen career wins. The bar charts are UFC-only, and that is where the honest gap sits — Pitbull has exactly one Octagon win, a decision over Dan Ige, and zero finishes in three appearances. Choi has six Octagon wins and every one of them is a knockout, three inside the first round.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Patricio	Doo
Dan Ige (style proxy)	W· UD3 (UFC 318, Jul 2025)	—(blueprint for Pitbull)
A pressure boxer who wanted a pocket fight and got out-worked over fifteen minutes — the only Octagon night where Pitbull's plan fully landed
Jeremy Stephens (style proxy)	—(blueprint for Choi)	L· TKO R2 (2:36)
The heavy-handed puncher who found Choi's chin. The 4.43 absorbed per minute is not free, and Pitbull is not the man to punish it
Cub Swanson (style proxy)	—(blueprint for Pitbull)	L· UD3 (UFC 206, Dec 2016)
The template for beating Choi over three rounds: a veteran who absorbed the early power and kept working. Pitbull's decision bucket is built on this tape

Patriciosmall sample

0.0

Doo

Half a composite point apart, with the model landing on the other side at 52-48 Pitbull. Form and size nudge Choi; pedigree, pressure and 74% takedown defence nudge Pitbull. Nothing separates them cleanly.

Metric	Patricio	Doo
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	15:00 (UFC) · 16:04 careersmall sample	8:11 (UFC)
Pace Tier	Low volume — 2.77 SLpM (65th/78)small sample	Mid volume — 5.00 SLpM (28th/78)
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	Volatile — 5.5 → 22.5 → 8.0 sig (2 rounds each)small sample	Flat — 18.1 → 21.2 → 18.0 sig
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	High — 5.5 sig per opening round, 63.6% of them leg kickssmall sample	Low — 18.1 sig and 0.44 knockdowns per opening round
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout (Bellator title-fight experience)	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure / Complete MMA 52%48% KO Boxer

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 52-48 line is a recalibration the analysis made on 6 August, cutting Pitbull from 56 to 52 because age 39, an absorption rate of 4.61 and Choi's three-fight knockout run outweigh the pedigree edge — enough to nearly even the fight, not enough to flip it.

Patricio PitbullDoo Ho Choi

Featherweight

· 78 fighters

Stat	Patricio	Patricio rank	Div avg	Doo rank	Doo
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.77	65/78small sample	~4.73	28/78	5.00
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	45%	52/78small sample	~49.9%	14/78	55%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	55%	35/78small sample	~55.0%	28/78	57%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.61	52/78small sample	~3.93	48/78	4.43
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.19	51/78small sample	~1.46	17/78	0.81
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	0.60	—	~1.20	—	1.13
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.26	40/78small sample	~1.89	40/78	1.26
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	74%	22/78small sample	~67.8%	52/78	59%
TD Acc	33%	45/78small sample	~40.6%	16/78	53%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.50	27/78small sample	~0.56	27/78	0.50
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	15:00 (UFC)	—	—	—	8:11 (UFC)

Statistical Verdict
Pitbull's Octagon-scoped line is a bottom-half line almost everywhere it is measured: 65th of 78 in output, 52nd in accuracy, 52nd in absorption, 51st in knockdown average, 0.60 strikes landed for every one taken against a divisional average of 1.20. The single column he owns is the one that matters most against this opponent — 74% takedown defence, 22nd in the division, into Choi's 59%, which is 52nd. Choi's own sheet is unspectacular but coherent: top-fifteen accuracy on both feet and shots, 17th in knockdowns, and a takedown defence that still sits below the division average.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Patricio Pitbull

Two rounds of evidence per row — the Yair Rodriguez and Dan Ige decisions. The April 2026 Pico loss is not in the round-by-round dataset, so nothing from it is shown or estimated.
His opening rounds are close to empty: 5.5 significant strikes landed at 48%, and 63.6% of them are leg kicks thrown from 100% distance. He is measuring, not fighting.
The whole sample lives in the second round — 22.5 significant strikes, 77.8% of them to the head, and the only round where his clinch share reaches 17.8%. By the third it collapses to 8.0 at 40% accuracy.
Zero knockdowns scored and one absorbed across all six recorded Octagon rounds.

Doo Ho Choi

Nine recorded opening rounds, and they are the most dangerous five minutes on this page: 18.1 significant strikes at 56% accuracy with 0.44 knockdowns per round.
His second round is his biggest — 21.2 landed at 57% from 89% distance. Three of his four stoppage wins in the fight records ended in a second or third round, not a first.
The third-round profile inverts completely: 44.4% of his strikes go to the body and 59.3% land on the ground, off 80 seconds of control. That is the Landwehr night, and it says he is not purely a kickboxer when a man is hurt.
Five knockdowns scored and three absorbed across eighteen rounds — the power and the vulnerability arrive in the same package.

Critical Insight
The round-by-round data reverses the reputations. Pitbull, the pressure fighter, has been an opening-round bystander in the Octagon — five and a half strikes, most of them leg kicks, from pure distance. Choi, the one-punch Korean, actually builds: 18.1, 21.2, 18.0, with his knockdowns concentrated in the first and his finishes in the second and third. Pitbull's one good round in the sample is the second, which is also the exact round Choi has stopped two men in.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Patricio

70%

15%

Head

70%

Body

15%

Legs

15%

Doo

68%

18%

14%

Head

68%

Body

18%

Legs

14%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

PatricioDoo

82%Distance75%

12%Clinch10%

6%Ground15%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDoo owns it

+3" reach, 5.00 SLpM at 55% against 2.77 at 45%, and 4.61 absorbed on the other side

Pocket / ExchangesDoo owns it

0.81 knockdown average (17th of 78) and 5 knockdowns in 18 rounds against Pitbull's 0 in 6

ClinchPatricio owns it

28% of Pitbull's Octagon significant strikes land in the clinch against Choi's 10%

GroundPatricio owns it

74% takedown defence (22nd) against 59% (52nd), plus ~12 career submission wins

Path to Victory

Patricio Pitbull

Make it dirty and make it long. Clinch entries, body work, takedown attempts against a 59% defence, and a scramble that turns into the submission he has hit roughly a dozen times in his career — because he cannot out-box a man with three inches and 5.00 strikes a minute.

Why they win

74% takedown defence into a 59% hole

Pitbull ranks 22nd of 78 in takedown defence; Choi ranks 52nd. Nobody on this card has a cleaner structural mismatch to attack.

Roughly a dozen career submissions

0.50 attempts per fifteen minutes and a Bellator career full of scramble finishes, pointed at a fighter with one career submission win of his own and a decade-old grappling weakness.

He does not get finished

Yair Rodriguez, Dan Ige and Aaron Pico all had fifteen minutes and none of them closed the show. Three UFC fights, three full decisions, at ages 37, 37 and 38.

Clinch share nearly triple

28% of his Octagon significant strikes land in the clinch against Choi's 10%. That is the one range where a 67-inch reach stops being a liability.

Championship-distance experience

Multiple Bellator title reigns and a career average fight time of 16:04. Fifteen minutes is not deep water for him — it is barely a warm-up by his own history.

The gameplan

1
Do not kickbox for free
The analysis puts it plainly: at 70 inches against 67, standing at range is the losing configuration. His opening-round profile — 5.5 strikes, 100% at distance — is exactly the shape he must not repeat.
2
Body work into the clinch
28% clinch share in the Octagon against Choi's 10%. Every second spent against the fence is a second the reach and the right hand stop mattering.
3
Shoot at the 59%
1.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes at only 33% accuracy is modest offence, but the target is 52nd of 78 in takedown defence. Volume of attempts matters more than polish here.
4
Hunt the scramble, not the pass
0.50 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and a career built on them. Choi's ground defence is the least-tested part of a fighter who spends 78% of his first round at distance.
5
Survive minutes 0:00–10:00
Choi's knockdown equity is concentrated in the first round and his finishes in the second. Past the halfway mark, control time and championship habit are the older man's assets.

Path to Victory

Doo Ho Choi

Fight at length and let the arithmetic run. A jab into a 45% accuracy, a right hand on the entry, and an absorption rate of 4.61 that he only has to punish once. His two most likely finishing rounds are the second and third.

Why they win

Six UFC wins, six knockouts

Puig in 18 seconds, Sicilia in 1:33, Tavares in 2:42, Algeo in the second, Landwehr in the third, Santos in the second. There is no decision path on his Octagon win column at all.

The absorption gap

Pitbull absorbs 4.61 significant strikes per minute and lands 2.77 — a damage ratio of 0.60 against a division average of 1.20. Choi's is 1.13. He is being handed the clean exchanges.

Four inches and three inches

5'10" and a 70-inch reach against 5'6" and 67 inches, in a fight where the shorter man's own numbers say he cannot afford to trade at range.

0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes

17th of 78 active featherweights, five knockdowns scored across eighteen recorded rounds, against a man who has scored zero in six.

Four years younger and in form

35 against 39, with three straight stoppages in his last three appearances against an opponent coming off a decision loss to Aaron Pico.

The gameplan

1
Jab at length
Three inches of reach against a 45% accuracy and a 2.77 output. The cleanest version of this fight is one where Pitbull never gets to decide the range.
2
Right hand on the entry
Every clinch attempt is a level change telegraphed by a man who lands 2.77 significant strikes a minute. 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes is what happens to fighters who walk in.
3
Sprawl everything
59% takedown defence is the one number that loses him this fight. The whole plan is unchanged if the takedown does not land — and gone if it does.
4
Punish the third round
Pitbull's output collapses to 8.0 significant strikes at 40% accuracy by the third. Choi's holds at 18.0, and he stopped Nate Landwehr in exactly that round.
5
Finish before the grind
His Octagon average fight time is 8:11 for a reason. Six UFC wins, zero of them on the cards — the longer this runs, the more it drifts toward the version he has never won.

Danger Zone

How Patricio Pitbull loses

He stays at range because he has to start somewhere, eats the right hand on an entry, and the 4.61 absorbed per minute becomes a highlight — the second round is where Choi has ended two of his last three.
The takedowns come and 59% defence turns out to be enough of a hole; without the wrestling, his 2.77 strikes a minute cannot win rounds against 5.00.
Thirty-nine years old, three hard fifteen-minute UFC decisions in seventeen months, and a first-round TKO loss to Chihiro Suzuki in 2023 already on the ledger.

Danger Zone

How Doo Ho Choi loses

The first committed clinch entry becomes a trip, the trip becomes top position, and the heater stalls under a man with a dozen career submissions and nothing to lose.
He wins the exchanges and still loses the card, because control time and clinch minutes score and his own third-round output has never been the problem — his takedown defence has.
Three knockdowns absorbed in eighteen rounds and TKO losses to Stephens and Jourdain say the chin is not armour. Pitbull is not a puncher any more, but he is still a professional.

The fight's central axis

Zero and Six

Patricio Pitbull has three Octagon fights and no finishes — three full fifteen-minute decisions against Yair Rodriguez, Dan Ige and Aaron Pico. Doo Ho Choi has six Octagon wins and every single one is a knockout, three of them inside the first round. Method markets that price Pitbull as a finisher are pricing Bellator.

6 / 6

Choi's UFC wins ending by KO/TKO

Why the legend is only 52%

Soft Absorption Meets a Puncher

2.77 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.61 absorbed is a damage ratio of 0.60, against a featherweight divisional average of 1.20. He loses clean exchanges on the numbers. Choi's entire current identity is winning clean exchanges until a referee intervenes.

0.60

Pitbull strikes landed per strike absorbed (division avg 1.20)

Where the red path lives

The 74/48 Split

Pitbull defends 74% of takedowns, 22nd of 78. Choi defends 59%, 52nd of 78. Every one of Pitbull's fifteen submission win-shares and most of his twenty-six decision win-shares route through that single column — and his own takedown offence is a modest 1.26 attempts per fifteen minutes at 33% accuracy.

The honest caveat

Three Fights of Octagon Evidence

Forty-six professional fights, three of them in the UFC. Every rate on Pitbull's side of this page is drawn from those three nights and two of them are in the round-by-round dataset. The Bellator career is real; it is also not a UFC sample, and nothing on this page pretends otherwise.

The round-by-round correction

Both Men Build, Neither Blitzes

Choi's opening round averages 18.1 significant strikes with 0.44 knockdowns, but his stoppages come in the second and third. Pitbull's opening round averages 5.5 strikes, 63.6% of them leg kicks. The first five minutes are quieter than the reputations suggest — and the second five are where three of Choi's last four fights ended.

The Five-Round Clock

Patricio Pitbull danger windowDoo Ho Choi danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Choi's knockdown window

18.1 significant strikes at 56% with 0.44 knockdowns per opening round across nine recorded rounds, against a man who averages 5.5 landed and 63.6% leg kicks in his own.

Critical Insight
Minutes 0:00 to 10:00 belong to Choi and the analysis says so directly: knockdown equity in the first, finishing equity in the second. Past the halfway mark the fight becomes an argument about whether a 39-year-old's pressure and 74% takedown defence can convert survival into scoring. Both men's numbers peak in the second round, which is why it is also the round most likely to end the fight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Doo Ho Choi has six UFC wins and all six are knockouts, three inside the first round. Patricio Pitbull has three UFC fights, zero finishes, and a damage ratio of 0.60 against a divisional average of 1.20.

The one column that keeps Pitbull as chalk is takedown defence: 74% against Choi's 59%, 22nd of 78 against 52nd. Forty-one of his fifty-two win-shares route through grappling or control.

Model: Pitbull 52% / Choi 48%, conviction 2/10 — a genuine pick'em, cut from 56-44 because age 39, 4.61 absorbed per minute and a three-fight knockout run nearly evened it.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Pitbull Decision — 26%Pitbull Submission — 15%Pitbull KO/TKO — 11%Choi KO/TKO — 30%Choi Decision — 13%Choi Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Patricio Pitbull gold · Doo Ho Choi orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The takedown-defence mismatch

74% against 59%, 22nd of 78 against 52nd. It is the single reason a 39-year-old with a 0.60 damage ratio is still the model's chalk, and it carries all fifteen of his submission win-shares.

Choi by knockout is the fattest single bucket

Thirty of one hundred, larger than any red outcome. Six UFC wins, six knockouts, 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, and an opponent absorbing 4.61 strikes a minute.

The UFC finish drought

Three Octagon fights, zero finishes, and a decision path that has to be earned in clinch minutes rather than damage. Pitbull's decision bucket is 26 — the largest red outcome and the honest shape of his last three nights.

Age and mileage

Thirty-nine against thirty-five, forty-six professional fights against twenty-two, and three hard fifteen-minute decisions inside seventeen months. Chihiro Suzuki stopped him in the first round in July 2023.

Sample asymmetry

Every Pitbull rate on this page comes from three Octagon bouts; his greatness was built somewhere else entirely. Choi's comes from nine fight records bouts across eighteen rounds — and even that is missing the May 2026 Santos win.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Korean Right Hand

Choi finds the entry, the jab lands all night, and one clean right hand ends it in the second — the Algeo night, the Santos night, the pattern of every UFC win he has. The largest single bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Patricio Pitbull vs Doo Ho Choi — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Patricio Pitbull win probability

11%

26%

15%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eleven points, and the analysis is blunt about why it is not more: zero UFC finishes in three fights, a knockdown average of 0.19 that ranks 51st of 78, and no knockdowns scored across six recorded Octagon rounds.
His largest bucket and the shape of all three of his UFC nights. Clinch minutes, control time and body work against a man whose only Octagon decision result is a majority draw.
Fifteen points — high for a submission line, and earned. Roughly a dozen career submission wins and 0.50 attempts per fifteen minutes aimed at a takedown defence ranked 52nd of 78.

Doo Ho Choi win probability

30%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

The single fattest outcome on the page. Every UFC win he owns is a knockout, he lands 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, and the man opposite him absorbs 4.61 significant strikes a minute.
Only thirteen. He has never won a UFC decision — his sole non-stoppage results are a loss to Cub Swanson and a majority draw with Kyle Nelson — and the cards reward the clinch work he does not do.
Five points. Sub/15 of 0.50 is respectable and 27th in the division, but with one career submission win these are scramble outcomes rather than a hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Doo

Patricio

29-28 Pitbull

Loses the opening round at range, then makes it a clinch fight

The modal card — 26 of 100 simulations end as a Pitbull decision

29-28 Choi

The boxing holds up and every sprawl works

13 of 100 — and the shape of the Kyle Nelson draw

30-27 Pitbull

The wrestling lands early and never stops

The wide version, and it needs takedowns that only land 33% of the time

Model and price

Patricio Pitbull

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 52%
Fair decimal odds: 1.92

Reference quote+224 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: +68.5%
Edge vs no-vig market: +22.3 pp

Doo Ho Choi

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 48%
Fair decimal odds: 2.08

Reference quote-270 (BetOnline)

Estimated EV: -34.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -22.3 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Patricio Pitbull

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.93 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Doo Ho Choi

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.09 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans3 fair11 avoid

Double Chance — Patricio Pitbull by Submission or Decision+325+17.5ppDouble Chance — Patricio Pitbull by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision+275+10.3ppPatricio Pitbull by Points+475+8.6ppPatricio Pitbull by Submission+1300+7.9pp+2 more in table

Full prop table (20)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair decimal odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Double Chance — Patricio Pitbull by Submission or Decision	+325BetOnline	23.5%	41%	2.44	+17.5	+74.3%	Value lean
Double Chance — Patricio Pitbull by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision	+275BetOnline	26.7%	37%	2.70	+10.3	+38.8%	Value lean
Patricio Pitbull by Points	+475BetOnline	17.4%	26%	3.85	+8.6	+49.5%	Value lean
Patricio Pitbull by Submission	+1300BetOnline	7.1%	15%	6.67	+7.9	+110.0%	Value lean
Under 2.5 Rounds	-115BetOnline	53.5%	61%	1.64	+7.5	+14.0%	Value lean
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by Submission	+575BetOnline	14.8%	20%	5.00	+5.2	+35.0%	Value lean
Goes the Distance — No	-140BetOnline	58.3%	61%	1.64	+2.7	+4.6%	Fair price
Win Inside Distance — Patricio Pitbull	+300BetOnline	25.0%	26%	3.85	+1.0	+4.0%	Fair price
Patricio Pitbull by KO/TKO/DQ	+850BetOnline	10.5%	11%	9.09	+0.5	+4.5%	Fair price
How Will Fight End — Either Fighter by KO/TKO/DQ	+115BetOnline	46.5%	41%	2.44	-5.5	-11.9%	Avoid / overpriced
Doo Ho Choi by Submission	+850BetOnline	10.5%	5%	20.00	-5.5	-52.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Point Spread — Doo Ho Choi -3.5	-120BetOnline	54.5%	48%	2.08	-6.5	-12.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Goes the Distance — Yes	+110BetOnline	47.6%	39%	2.56	-8.6	-18.1%	Avoid / overpriced
How Will Fight End — Goes the Distance	+110BetOnline	47.6%	39%	2.56	-8.6	-18.1%	Avoid / overpriced
Over 2.5 Rounds	-101BetOnline	50.2%	39%	2.56	-11.2	-22.4%	Avoid / overpriced
Doo Ho Choi by KO/TKO/DQ	+130BetOnline	43.5%	30%	3.33	-13.5	-31.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Doo Ho Choi by Points	+185BetOnline	35.1%	13%	7.69	-22.1	-62.9%	Avoid / overpriced
Decision — Doo Ho Choi by Unanimous Decision	+185BetOnline	35.1%	13%	7.69	-22.1	-62.9%	Avoid / overpriced
Double Chance — Doo Ho Choi by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision	-250BetOnline	71.4%	43%	2.33	-28.4	-39.8%	Avoid / overpriced
Win Inside Distance — Doo Ho Choi	-400BetOnline	80.0%	35%	2.86	-45.0	-56.3%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Pitbull +224 is the card's clearest structural dog — 52% model vs 30.9% implied. Pitbull by points at +475 (+8.6pp) is his largest bucket at 26 of 100; Pitbull by submission at +1300 (+7.9pp) attacks Choi's 59% takedown defence. Choi by KO at +130 is overpriced relative to the 30% model modal path — the six-knockout résumé is baked in. Under 2.5 at -115 and Goes the Distance No at -140 align with a fight that finishes more often than the market's even split on the total suggests.

Conviction

2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A genuine pick'em with a thin red lean. Pedigree, pressure and 74% takedown defence into Choi's 59% keep Pitbull as chalk — but age 39, an absorption rate of 4.61 and six-for-six knockout finishing on the other side make this the lowest-conviction call on the UFC 331 main card. Lean: Patricio Pitbull.

What backs the lean

74% takedown defence (22nd of 78) against Choi's 59% (52nd) — still below the division average, and still the column Pitbull attacks.
Roughly a dozen career submission wins and 0.50 attempts per fifteen minutes to attack it with.
Three UFC fights, three full fifteen-minute decisions — Yair Rodriguez, Dan Ige and Aaron Pico all failed to finish him.
28% clinch share in the Octagon against Choi's 10%, and a career average fight time of 16:04.

What limits it

Every Pitbull rate here comes from three Octagon bouts; the résumé that makes him chalk was built in Bellator.
2.77 landed against 4.61 absorbed is a damage ratio of 0.60 — half the featherweight average.
Choi's six UFC wins are six knockouts, at 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes and 17th in the division.
Four inches of height, three of reach and four years of age all point the other way, and Chihiro Suzuki stopped Pitbull in the first round in 2023.

Final Assessment

This is a fight between a résumé and a rate line, and the model refuses to pick decisively between them. Patricio Pitbull is one of the greatest featherweights the sport has produced outside the UFC — thirty-seven wins, multiple Bellator title reigns, roughly a dozen knockouts and a dozen submissions. Inside the Octagon he is 1-2 with no finishes and a damage ratio of 0.60, which is half of what the average active featherweight manages.

Doo Ho Choi's case is simpler and easier to price. Six UFC wins, six knockouts, three of them in the first round, 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, and an opponent who absorbs 4.61 significant strikes a minute while landing 2.77. If this fight is contested at range for fifteen minutes, the arithmetic writes itself and the second round is where it usually finishes — Algeo at 3:38, Santos at 4:29.

The honest read: 52-48 is the right shape and conviction 2 is the right number. Pitbull's path is narrow but real — one clinch entry, one takedown against a 59% defence, one scramble that finds the thirteenth submission of his career. Choi's path is wider and shorter. Take the pick'em seriously, take Choi by knockout at plus money if the market prices the legend on his name, and expect the first ten minutes to be the most dangerous of Patricio Freire's Octagon career.

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