Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott – UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN EVENT · WELTERWEIGHT · 5 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Joaquin Buckley

“New Mansa”

21W8L

Spinning-Kick KO Artist

Mike Malott

“Proper”

14W2L1D

Finishing Wrestler

Seventy-two per cent takedown defence against seventeen

WelterweightRogers Place, Edmonton, AlbertaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Buckley can use takedown threats to disrupt Malott's striking rhythm and test his recorded 57% takedown defence. Malott's offensive grappling remains a counterweight: Buckley needs disciplined entries and top position, because getting the fight down can also create Malott's best submission opportunities.

Paths that change the fight

Joaquin BuckleyMake him defend. One clean entry into a 57% takedown defence — against Buckley's own 70% sprawl — turns a competitive kickboxing match into a control-and-ground-and-pound tax that compounds for twenty-five minutes.
Mike MalottShoot first and finish. His live paths are Radtke and Fugitt — initiate the opening scramble, chain to the neck or the back, and end it before Buckley's curve starts climbing.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10

Rogers Place is a real variable in close early rounds, and Malott's first round is already his most accurate at 51%.
Buckley starts slowly — 14.7 strikes at 32% with a 0.06 knockdown average — and has never finished anyone in a UFC first round.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Joaquin Buckley

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Reference quote—

Mike Malott

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample and reporting dates available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

One number still frames this main event, even after the rate-line update. Mike Malott's published takedown defence is 57% — below a welterweight average near 68.7% — and he is fighting a ranked welterweight who shoots 1.43 times per fifteen minutes at 45% accuracy and stops 70% of what comes back. Malott's own grappling offence remains real: 1.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 50%, 0.7 submission attempts, six career submissions. The question is still who gets to initiate. Joaquin Buckley brings a 0.73 knockdown average, 15 career knockouts, and a 76-inch reach out of a 5'10" frame — three inches longer than the taller man across from him. What keeps Edmonton loud is that Malott finishes fast when he initiates first: Charles Radtke in 26 seconds of the second, Adam Fugitt by guillotine in 66 seconds of the second.

Joaquin Buckley

Attribute

Mike Malott

Age

5'10"

Height

+3" Malott6'1"

76"+3" Buckley

Reach

73"

Not published

Leg Reach

Not published

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

St. Louis, United States

Origin

Ontario, Canada

Not published

Team

Niagara Top Team

Aug 8, 2020

Octagon Debut

Apr 9, 2022

Spinning kicks and power into improving wrestling

Fighting Style

Level changes into submissions, dual-path finisher

The tape reads backwards. Malott is three inches taller at 6'1" and Buckley still owns the fight by three inches of reach — 76 against 73, unusual geometry for a 5'10" welterweight and exactly the frame a southpaw wants for spinning kicks, teeps and long outside entries. Malott has to travel through that corridor to get to the range where his 48% striking accuracy lives. Neither man has a published leg reach, which is a real gap here: 32.8% of Malott's first-round strikes are leg kicks, the highest single-target share on this page. Age is close to a wash and it runs the way the poster does not — Buckley is 32, Malott is 34.

Venue Factor
Rogers Place will be loud for the Canadian from the walkout, and that noise is worth something specific rather than something general. It buys Malott adrenaline for the first level change and it buys him the benefit of the doubt in a close opening round — his best round on record, at 51% accuracy. It does not buy him a single point of takedown defence. Home-cage equity is front-loaded and finite; a 57% takedown defence against a 70% sprawl across twenty-five minutes is still a cumulative tax. Five rounds is the worst possible length for the man whose live paths all end before the ten-minute mark.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Joaquin Buckley

Pro Record

21-8-0

UFC Record

11-6 over seventeen Octagon bouts since 2020

Streak

Lost his last — the snapshot ends on a decision to Kamaru Usman (Jun 2025), and the event page adds one loss since

Finish Rate

15 of 21 career wins by knockout (~71%); 8 of his 11 UFC wins

Avg Fight Time

11:33

Chin · Tested — three UFC knockout lossesSOS · Ranked welterweightPower striker into improving wrestling

The highlight has become a résumé. Buckley entered public consciousness with a spinning back kick that ended Impa Kasanganay in 2020 and spent three years being a middleweight who could be knocked out — Alessio Di Chirico stopped him in the first, Kevin Holland in the third, Chris Curtis in the second. The move to welterweight rebuilt him into something harder to categorise: Vicente Luque stopped in the second, Stephen Thompson knocked out in the third, Nursulton Ruziboev out-pointed across fifteen minutes, Colby Covington finished on a doctor's stoppage late in the third. Then Kamaru Usman took him five rounds and out-wrestled him. What that Usman night proved is the thing that matters most in Edmonton — Buckley has already done twenty-five minutes against elite pressure, and he came out the other side without being finished.

Mike Malott

Pro Record

14-2-1

UFC Record

7-1 across eight bouts since 2022

Streak

Unbeaten since January 2024 — Radtke, Holland and the Burns main event

Finish Rate

11 of 14 career wins by stoppage (~79%); 4 of his 7 UFC wins

Avg Fight Time

08:52

Chin · Never knocked down in the Octagon — one stoppage lossSOS · Rising — one elite scalpDual-path finisher, submission-first

A career built on initiating. Malott finished four of his first five UFC opponents — Mickey Gall in the first, Yohan Lainesse by submission in the first, Adam Fugitt by guillotine 66 seconds into the second, Charles Radtke in 26 seconds of the second — and every one of those nights followed the same shape: he moved first and the fight ended. Then Neil Magny showed the other version. Magny survived the early violence, got on top late and finished him with ground strikes in the third, the only stoppage loss on his record. The response has been the best stretch of his career and a different kind of proof: a decision over Kevin Holland and a five-round main-event decision over Gilbert Burns. He is no longer a sprinter. What has not changed is that his 57% takedown defence still sits below the divisional line he has to clear against a 70% sprawl.

Joaquin Buckley

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Mike Malott

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Joaquin Buckleysignature weapons

Spinning Kicks & One-Shot PowerEight UFC knockouts including Kasanganay, Wright in 0:18 of R2, Thompson and Luque — 0.73 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 20th of 78

×8

The 76-Inch Southpaw Kicking Frame84.3% of his first-round offence lands at distance, with 16.6% of it to the legs — the corridor Malott has to cross

×3

Mike Malottsignature weapons

Guillotine & Back-Take ChainsFugitt by guillotine in 1:06 of R2, Lainesse in R1 — 0.7 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, six career submissions

×2

Early Left HookCharles Radtke in 26 seconds of the second, Mickey Gall in the first — his knockdown rate peaks at 0.40 per second round

×2

Joaquin Buckley

Sean Brady

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC FN: Brady vs. Buckley — May 9, 2026

Kamaru Usman

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5

UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley

Colby Covington

TKO — Doctor's Stoppage

Opponent context: elite

RR3 (4:42)

UFC FN: Covington vs. Buckley

Stephen Thompson

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (2:17)

UFC 307

Nursulton Ruziboev

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Lewis vs. Nascimento

Pattern

Four straight wins over named welterweights and then a wall. Luque was stopped in the second, Thompson knocked out in the third, Ruziboev out-pointed, Covington finished late on a doctor's call — a run that took Buckley from highlight act to ranked contender. Usman then beat him the way good wrestlers beat him: not by hurting him but by taking the fight somewhere he could not score. Note the round numbers on the finishes. Buckley's stoppages arrive in the second and third, never the first. He is a slow starter who gets more dangerous as the fight ages, which is the opposite of the man across from him.

Mike Malott

Gilbert Burns

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: elite

RR3 (2:08)

UFC FN: Burns vs. Malott — Apr 18, 2026

Kevin Holland

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC FN: De Ridder vs. Allen

Charles Radtke

KO/TKO — Left Hook to Ground Punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (0:26)

UFC 315

Trevin Giles

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC FN — Nov 2, 2024

Neil Magny

KO/TKO — Ground & Pound

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (4:45)

UFC 297

Pattern

Four finishes, three decisions, one loss. The finishes all came when Malott dictated the opening exchange, and they came fast — 3:41 of the first, 4:15 of the first, 1:06 of the second, 0:26 of the second. The Magny loss is the counter-example and it should worry Edmonton: a rangy welterweight who survived the early surge, took top position in the third and finished him there. Since then the wins have been better and slower — Holland over fifteen minutes, Burns over twenty-five. That is genuine growth in a five-round context, and it is also three decisions in his last four, from a man whose whole reputation is finishing.

Joaquin Buckley

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Mike Malott

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both donuts are scoped to UFC wins only — Buckley's eleven and Malott's seven — because the career method tables do not reconcile cleanly and mixing a 21-win career against a 14-win one would mislead. Read that way, Malott's reputation gets corrected. His career line is submission-first (six submissions, five knockouts, and the analysis records a single decision), but inside the Octagon he has two knockouts, two submissions and three decisions, and the decisions are the recent ones — Giles, Holland, Burns. Buckley is the opposite of complicated: eight knockouts and three decisions in eleven UFC wins, zero submissions in his entire career. Look at the round columns and the fight writes itself. Not one of Buckley's eleven UFC wins ended in the first round; both of Malott's early finishes did.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Joaquin	Mike
Kevin Holland	L· KO/TKO R3 (0:32, 2020)	W· UD3 (Oct 2025)
The only genuine shared opponent — but Buckley's loss came at middleweight in his second Octagon year, six years and a division ago
Neil Magny (style proxy)	—(blueprint for Buckley)	L· KO/TKO R3 (4:45)
A long welterweight survived Malott's early surge, took top position in the third and finished him with ground strikes — the closest thing to a preview on tape
Kamaru Usman (style proxy)	L· UD5 (Jun 2025)	—(blueprint for Malott)
Buckley's only five-round fight. He was out-wrestled and out-pointed, not hurt — the template for how he loses rather than how he gets finished
Gilbert Burns / Nursulton Ruziboev	W· UD3 over Ruziboev (May 2024)	W· UD5 over Burns (5-rd main event)
Each man's proof he can win a long fight on the cards against a credentialed opponent

Joaquin

0.0

Mike

Seven and a half composite points, and a 62-38 model line that sits slightly ahead of them because five rounds amplify a structural edge rather than a stylistic one.

Metric	Joaquin	Mike
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:33	08:52
Pace Tier	Below average — 3.62 SLpM	Below average — 4.02 SLpM
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	156% (22.9 vs 14.7 sig)	65% (11.3 vs 17.4 sig)
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	High — 14.7 sig at 32% in R1, 0.06 KD	Low — 17.4 sig at 51% in R1, 0.14 KD
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	2 rounds of data — one fight (Usman), 11 and 20 sig, zero control, and he lost itsmall sample	No R4/R5 data — the Burns five-rounder postdates the snapshotsmall sample

Archetype Base Rate

Power Striker / Spinning-Kick Finisher 62%38% Finishing Wrestler / Submission Hunter

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 62-38 line is the editorial assessment's own simulation, built on the takedown-defence mismatch, Buckley's five-round experience and Malott's front-loaded finishing equity at home.

Joaquin BuckleyMike Malott

Welterweight

· 78 fighters

Stat	Joaquin	Joaquin rank	Div avg	Mike rank	Mike
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.62	44/78	~4.53	42/78	4.02
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	36%	69/78	~50.0%	37/78	48%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	58%	15/78elite	~54.0%	28/78	56%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.10	20/78	~3.87	24/78	3.09
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.73	20/78	~0.89	31/78	0.69
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.17	—	~1.17	—	1.30
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.43	32/78	~1.64	25/78	1.63
TD Acc	45%	21/78	~39.1%	12/78	50%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	70%	30/78	~68.7%	55/78	57%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.10	46/78	~0.47	18/78	0.70
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:33	—	—	—	08:52

Statistical Verdict
Read the table and the fight is still a wrestling-axis fight. Malott is cleaner standing (48% against 36%), lands more often (4.02 against 3.62), shoots slightly more often (1.63 against 1.43) and carries seven times the submission rate. Buckley answers on the two defensive vetoes that matter most here — 58% striking defence against 56%, and 70% takedown defence against Malott's 57%. That is what the asymmetry looks like after the rate-line sync: Malott wins more offensive categories, Buckley still owns the sprawl and the reach.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R4, R5: single-fight sample for Joaquin Buckley

Control Time per Round (sec)

Joaquin Buckley

He builds. Output climbs 14.7 → 16.4 → 22.9 across the first three rounds and accuracy climbs with it, 32% → 37% → 45%. His knockdown rate is 0.06 in the first and 0.33 in each of the second and third — the danger is late, not early.
The fight migrates off the fence and onto the mat as it goes: ground offence is 7.2% of his first round, 17.1% of his second and 37.9% of his third, with head-hunting rising from 52.3% to 74.3%.
His only championship rounds are the Usman fight and they are a warning, not a credential — 11 significant strikes in the fourth, zero control time in either round, and 95% of his fifth-round offence thrown at distance because he could not get anywhere else.

Mike Malott

The most distinctive first round on the page: 32.8% of his opening-round strikes are leg kicks and 91.8% of his offence is at distance. He kicks the legs and stays out of the phone booth until he decides to shoot.
His second round is his best and his most violent — 60% accuracy and a 0.40 knockdown average, which is precisely where Radtke and Fugitt were finished.
Then it stops. Third-round output drops to 11.3 significant strikes, his lowest of any round, even as his control time triples to 92 seconds. Rounds four and five are blank because his only five-round fight, the Burns main event, postdates the statistical record snapshot — nothing is estimated in their place.

Critical Insight
The two curves cross and they cross early. Malott peaks in round two — 60% accuracy, 0.40 knockdowns — and is already declining by the third, down to 11.3 significant strikes. Buckley does not reach his best round until the third, when he lands 22.9 at 45% with 37.9% of it on the ground. In a three-round fight that overlap is a genuine coin-toss. In a five-round fight, Buckley's curve is still rising when Malott's has flattened, and Malott has no measured data past the fifteen-minute mark at all.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Joaquin

62%

28%

10%

Head

62%

Body

28%

Legs

10%

Mike

53%

23%

24%

Head

53%

Body

23%

Legs

24%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JoaquinMike

75%Distance86%

6%Clinch2%

19%Ground12%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceJoaquin owns it

76" reach from a southpaw, 84.3% first-round distance offence and 0.73 knockdowns — Malott has to cross it to work

Pocket / ExchangesMike owns it

48% striking accuracy against 36% (69th of 78) — the one phase where Malott's efficiency scores rounds

ClinchJoaquin owns it

Buckley's clinch share reaches 18.2% and he defends 70% of takedowns; Malott lands 0% of his second- and third-round offence in the clinch

GroundJoaquin owns it

57% takedown defence against 70% — Malott's better submission game only matters if he is the one on top

Path to Victory

Joaquin Buckley

Make him defend. One clean entry into a 57% takedown defence — against Buckley's own 70% sprawl — turns a competitive kickboxing match into a control-and-ground-and-pound tax that compounds for twenty-five minutes.

Why they win

70% against 57%

The fight's central wrestling number after the rate sync. Buckley stops seventy percent of takedown attempts; Malott's 57% sits below a ~68.7% divisional average. Whoever shoots successfully first still owns more of the night, and Buckley is harder to put on the mat.

Three inches of reach out of the shorter frame

76 inches against 73, from a southpaw who throws 84.3% of his first-round offence at distance. Malott's 48% accuracy needs mid-range; getting there means crossing a spinning-kick corridor.

He is the one who has done twenty-five minutes against elite pressure

Buckley went five rounds with Kamaru Usman and was out-pointed rather than hurt. Malott's only five-rounder is a decision over Burns that carries no round-by-round record at all.

His curve rises

14.7 significant strikes in the first, 22.9 in the third; accuracy from 32% to 45%; ground offence from 7.2% to 37.9%. Every minute that passes moves the fight toward the version he wins.

Real power, 20th in the division

0.73 knockdowns per fifteen minutes and nine knockdowns dealt against four absorbed. Fifteen career knockouts. Malott has to enter through all of it.

The gameplan

1
Kick from 76 inches and make him travel
Teeps, southpaw open-stance kicks and the spinning arsenal. 84.3% of his first-round offence is already at distance — the job is to make Malott pay a toll for every metre he closes.
2
Chain the shot off the miss
Do not admire the kick. Every check, cover-up or failed Malott entry is a level-change window into a defence that stops 57% of what it sees.
3
Stay heavy when it lands
Control and ground-and-pound, not submission hunting — he has 0.1 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and zero career taps. The value of top position here is the clock, not the finish.
4
Survive the first five minutes on purpose
He is a slow starter in a loud building against a man who finishes early. Losing round one 10-9 is survivable; losing it 10-8 or by stoppage is the whole fight.
5
Trust the back half
Output up to 22.9 by the third against an opponent falling to 11.3, and three career UFC finishes in third rounds. The longer this goes, the more it belongs to him.

Path to Victory

Mike Malott

Shoot first and finish. His live paths are Radtke and Fugitt — initiate the opening scramble, chain to the neck or the back, and end it before Buckley's curve starts climbing.

Why they win

Rogers Place, and the first five minutes

A Canadian main-eventer at home, in the round where his numbers are already best — 51% accuracy, 0.14 knockdowns — against a man who lands 14.7 strikes at 32% in the opening round and has never won a UFC fight in the first.

The cleaner striker by twelve points

48% accuracy against 36%. Buckley's connect rate is 69th of 78; Malott's is 37th. If this becomes a technical fifteen-to-twenty-five minutes at mid-range, the accuracy gap scores rounds.

Two ways to finish, and Buckley only has one

Six career submissions and 0.7 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against Buckley's 0.1 and zero career submission wins. Every scramble in this fight is asymmetric in Malott's favour.

Better offensive wrestling on the volume and accuracy lines

1.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 50% accuracy against Buckley's 1.43 at 45%. When Malott is the initiator he is still the better offensive grappler in the cage.

Buckley's chin has been cracked three times

Di Chirico in the first, Holland in the third, Curtis in the second, and four knockdowns absorbed against nine dealt. Malott's second-round knockdown average is 0.40 and he has never been dropped in the Octagon (five knockdowns dealt, zero absorbed).

The gameplan

1
Shoot first, and shoot in round one
The published plan and the honest one. His 38% lives in the opening ten minutes, while the crowd is loudest and Buckley is at his coldest — 32% accuracy, 0.06 knockdowns.
2
Chain straight to the neck
The Fugitt guillotine and the Lainesse finish are the template. Polite top control against a man who scrambles violently is how the position gets given back.
3
Kick the legs early and often
32.8% of his first-round strikes already go to the legs — the highest target share on this page. Taking the base out from under a kicker is how the 76-inch reach stops mattering.
4
Never reset into a naked shot
Against 70% takedown defence, a failed entry is not neutral — it is a sprawl, a counter and a re-shot window. Underhooks and exit angles or nothing.
5
Do not chase the finish into round four
His output falls to 11.3 in the third and there is no measured evidence past that. If he is ahead after two, the fight to win is a disciplined one at range, not another double.

Danger Zone

How Joaquin Buckley loses

He kickboxes politely for twenty-five minutes at the range where Malott's 48% accuracy lives, never shoots, and donates the only structural edge he brought to Edmonton.
He starts the way he always starts — 14.7 strikes at 32% — loses the first two rounds in a loud building, and spends the championship rounds needing a finish he has never produced in a first round.
He chases a spinning kick, gets caught mid-recovery, and finds out what 0.7 submission attempts per fifteen minutes feels like on a tired neck.

Danger Zone

How Mike Malott loses

The first clean takedown arrives in round two and never stops arriving. A 57% takedown defence against a 70% sprawl cannot reset the pattern forever, and the Magny tape shows what happens when this man spends late rounds underneath someone.
He fades on schedule. His output already falls from 17.8 in the second to 11.3 in the third; rounds four and five against a man whose output climbs to 22.9 are unmapped territory.
A spinning kick or a second-round right hand ends it before any of the wrestling matters — Buckley has eight UFC knockouts and Malott has to walk into range to work.

The fight's central axis

Fifty-Seven Per Cent

Mike Malott's takedown defence is 57% — below a welterweight average near 68.7%. He is fighting a man who attempts 1.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 45% accuracy and stops 70% of the ones coming back. Malott's entire identity assumes he is the one doing the grappling. This is still the matchup where he might not be.

57%

Malott takedown defence — below a ~68.7% divisional average

Why five rounds is the wrong length for the dog

The Curves Cross at Round Two

Malott peaks in the second round — 60% accuracy, a 0.40 knockdown average, both his fastest finishes — and is down to 11.3 significant strikes by the third. Buckley starts at 14.7 and reaches 22.9 in the third. In a three-round fight that is close. In a five-round fight it is a structural problem.

22.9 vs 11.3

Third-round significant strikes landed

The favourite's real vulnerability

Buckley Has Never Won a First Round Fight

Not one of his eleven UFC wins ended in the first round — five ended in the second, three in the third. He opens at 14.7 significant strikes and 32% accuracy with a 0.06 knockdown average. Both of Malott's early finishes came inside two rounds, and Rogers Place will be at its loudest for exactly that window.

The closest thing to a preview

The Magny Tape

Neil Magny is the one long welterweight who survived Malott's early surge, got on top in the third and finished him with ground strikes at 4:45. It is Malott's only stoppage loss and it is the exact shape of Buckley's best round — 37.9% of his third-round offence lands on the ground.

The UFC-only correction

He Is Not the Finisher His Record Says

Malott's career reads six submissions and five knockouts. Inside the Octagon it reads two knockouts, two submissions and three decisions — and the decisions are the recent ones, over Giles, Holland and Burns. The finishing reputation was built earlier and lower.

The Five-Round Clock

Joaquin Buckley danger windowMike Malott danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Malott's building

Home crowd, his best statistical round at 51% accuracy, and a third of his strikes going to the legs — against a man who opens at 32% accuracy with a 0.06 knockdown average and has never finished anyone in a UFC first round.

Critical Insight
The clock is the underdog's enemy. Malott's live paths are all concentrated in the first ten minutes — home noise, his 51% opening round, his 0.40 second-round knockdown rate, the Radtke and Fugitt scripts. Buckley's advantages accumulate: his output rises every round, his ground share triples by the third, and a 57% takedown defence against a 70% sprawl does not improve with fatigue. If Malott has not hurt him or finished him by the halfway point of round three, the remaining twelve minutes belong to arithmetic.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Mike Malott's takedown defence is 57%, below a ~68.7% welterweight average, and Joaquin Buckley shoots 1.43 times per fifteen minutes at 45% while stopping 70% coming back. Malott is the better offensive grappler in this fight and may never get to prove it.

The curves cross at round two. Malott peaks there — 60% accuracy, 0.40 knockdowns, both his fastest finishes — and falls to 11.3 significant strikes by the third. Buckley climbs from 14.7 to 22.9 and has already gone five rounds with Kamaru Usman.

Model: Buckley 62% / Malott 38%, conviction 6/10 — a structural lean rather than a stylistic one, capped by a loud Edmonton building and 28 points of genuine Malott finishing equity in the first ten minutes.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Buckley KO/TKO — 34%Buckley Decision — 22%Buckley Submission — 6%Malott KO/TKO — 14%Malott Submission — 14%Malott Decision — 10%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Joaquin Buckley gold · Mike Malott orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The takedown-defence mismatch

70% against 57% is still a real wrestling gap and it compounds rather than resolving. It is why Buckley's decision bucket (22) exists at all, and why Malott's (10) is deliberately thin.

Round-one sequencing

Malott's 38% is front-loaded: 14 knockout points and 14 submission points, nearly all of them requiring him to win the first scramble on home adrenaline against a man who starts at 32% accuracy.

Buckley's power as an entry tax

0.73 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 20th of 78, and eight UFC knockouts. It is worth 34 points on its own and it also enforces the wrestling — every reactive entry Malott makes is a level-change window.

Five rounds against a falling curve

Malott's output drops from 17.8 in the second to 11.3 in the third and has no measured fourth or fifth. Buckley's climbs to 22.9 and he has already survived twenty-five minutes against Usman.

The Rogers Place discount

Home crowd is priced in as early-round variance and close-round judging, not as a structural adjustment. It is the main reason conviction is capped at 6 rather than 7.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Wrestling Tax

Buckley survives a loud opening round, lands his first clean entry in the second, and discovers that a 57% takedown defence against a 70% sprawl does not learn fast enough. Control, ground-and-pound and a stoppage somewhere between the third and the fifth — the largest single bucket on the page and the Magny tape with more power on top.

Scripted outcomes for Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Joaquin Buckley win probability

34%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

The primary path and the largest bucket on the page. Fifteen career knockouts, 0.73 knockdowns per fifteen minutes and eight UFC stoppages — arriving either as a kick or counter on the close, or as ground-and-pound after a takedown into a 57% defence.
The structural backup. Survive the opening ten minutes, tax the takedown defence, and let a rising output curve bank the championship rounds against a man whose own output is falling.
Six points, and honestly labelled as scramble noise. Buckley has zero career submission wins and 0.1 attempts per fifteen minutes — these are positional outcomes from top control, not a hunted path.

Mike Malott win probability

14%

10%

14%

KO/TKODECSUB

Co-equal with his submission path. The Radtke script — an early left hook in a loud building, into ground punches — backed by a 0.40 second-round knockdown average and Buckley's three UFC knockout losses.
Deliberately thin. Winning fifteen of twenty-five minutes at 48% accuracy while never being taken down is a narrow corridor, and his output falls to 11.3 significant strikes by the third round.
His single most distinctive path. Six career submissions and 0.7 attempts per fifteen minutes against a man with none — but it requires him to win the first scramble, which is why almost all fourteen points sit in rounds one and two.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Mike

Joaquin

49-46 Buckley

Malott takes the opening round on home noise, Buckley banks the rest

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

50-45 Buckley

The takedown tax runs from the opening bell and never lets up

Common if the first entry lands early

48-47 Malott

He wins the first two, survives the wrestling and steals a championship round

His only realistic path to the cards, and worth 10 of his 38 points

Model and price

Joaquin Buckley

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Mike Malott

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Joaquin Buckley

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Mike Malott

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Malott by submission is the live home-dog position. It is 14 of his 38 points, it comes from a genuine 0.7 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against an opponent with zero career taps, and markets pricing this fight on Buckley's highlight reel will tend to under-price the version where the Canadian wins the first scramble. The other side of the disagreement is Malott by decision at 10 points — a market that reads his Burns and Holland wins as evidence he can out-point anyone should note that his third-round output is his worst and he has no measured championship-round data at all.

Conviction

6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A structural lean rather than a stylistic one — the takedown-defence mismatch, the reach, the power and the five-round experience all point the same way — held at six out of ten by a loud Edmonton building and 28 points of genuine Malott finishing equity inside the first ten minutes. Lean: Joaquin Buckley.

What backs the lean

70% takedown defence against 57%, still a real wrestling gap on the card, and it compounds across twenty-five minutes.
Three inches of reach from the shorter man, 0.73 knockdowns per fifteen minutes and fifteen career knockouts.
Output and accuracy climb every round to 22.9 at 45% by the third, while Malott's fall to 11.3.
He has already been twenty-five minutes deep against Kamaru Usman without being finished; Malott's only five-rounder leaves no round-level record.

What limits it

Rogers Place is a real variable in close early rounds, and Malott's first round is already his most accurate at 51%.
Buckley starts slowly — 14.7 strikes at 32% with a 0.06 knockdown average — and has never finished anyone in a UFC first round.
His chin has been cracked three times in the Octagon; Malott has never been knocked down in it and his second-round knockdown average is 0.40.
Malott is the better offensive grappler on the volume, accuracy and submission lines (1.63 TD/15 at 50%, 0.7 Sub/15) — the projection assumes he never gets to use it.

Final Assessment

This is a main event decided by a defensive statistic. Mike Malott is the better offensive grappler in the cage on Saturday — slightly more takedowns, better takedown accuracy, seven times the submission rate, six career submissions against a man who has never tapped anyone. His takedown defence is 57% against a ~68.7% divisional average, and he is fighting someone who shoots at 45% and sprawls at 70%. The whole fight is still the question of who gets to be the grappler.

Malott's answer is speed. His live paths are Charles Radtke in 26 seconds and Adam Fugitt in 66 — shoot first, chain to the neck, end it in a building that will be roaring for him. That is 28 of his 38 points and virtually all of it is spent before the ten-minute mark. It is a real path and it is the reason this reads 62-38 rather than 70-30.

But the round-by-round record is unkind to the Canadian's second half. He peaks in round two at 60% accuracy and falls to 11.3 significant strikes in the third, his worst round on file, and there is no fourth or fifth in the dataset at all. Buckley moves the other way: 14.7 to 22.9, 32% to 45%, ground offence from 7.2% to 37.9%, and a fifth round against Kamaru Usman already behind him. Take Buckley to survive the first ten minutes and turn the remaining fifteen into a tax — and understand that if Edmonton is going to get its night, it gets it early or not at all.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott Fight Card