BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Chad Anheliger — Bantamweight fighter

Chad Anheliger

The Monster
13W8L
Volume Striker
VS
Steven Koslow — Bantamweight fighter

Steven Koslow

Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow
6W1L
Submission Finisher

Five UFC nights against six perfect subs

BantamweightRogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, CanadaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

This is a medium-data, style-clash undercard projection, not a high-confidence rate-line fight. Chad "The Monster" Anheliger is the only man here with a real Octagon sample — five UFC bouts, a usable UFCStats line (SLpM 3.11, StrDef 53%, SApM 2.76), and a Canadian home-region card in Alberta where Champion's Creed MMA is based. Steven "Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow" Koslow is 0-1 in the UFC, stopped by TKO in Round 3 by Cameron Saaiman at UFC 282 on December 10, 2022, after which he went dark for more than three years before this call-up. Every published UFC rate for Koslow is a single-bout, three-round denominator and is flagged as high-variance. We take Anheliger 62% / Koslow 38% at conviction 4/10. Koslow's submission threat keeps him live; it does not rewrite five Octagon nights against one catastrophic striking-absorption sample and a layoff.

Chad Anheliger
Attribute
Steven Koslow
39
Age
29
5'6" (66")
Height
+1" Koslow5'7" (67")
64"
Reach
+5" Koslow69"
38"
Leg Reach
39"
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Champion's Creed MMA
Team
10th Planet Jiu Jitsu
February 19, 2022 (Jesse Strader)
Octagon Debut
December 10, 2022 (Cameron Saaiman)
Volume striker / decision tester
Fighting Style
Pure submission finisher — 100% of wins by sub

The American owns the frame; the Canadian owns the Octagon minutes. Koslow is +1" in height and +5" in reach on a switch stance that should give him kicking and entry angles Anheliger cannot mirror. The age gap (39 vs 29) is the largest physical asymmetry on the tape. The more important asymmetry is sample: Anheliger has five Octagon nights and a rate line that at least describes a career; Koslow has one UFC night that ended in Round 3 by strikes, not submission, after absorbing heavy volume.

Venue Factor
Rogers Place is a Canadian Fight Night on a card already stacked with Malott, Barriault, Jourdain, Nallo, Horth, Boser and Croden. Anheliger is not Edmonton's main-event Canadian, but he is a Canadian fighter on an Alberta card from a Calgary-area camp — worth a nudge on close rounds, not a first-minute weapon. Anheliger last fought November 2, 2024 against Cody Gibson (~349 days); Koslow has been inactive at the UFC level since December 2022 (~1,042+ days).
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Chad Anheliger, The Monster, ESPN fighter headshot

Chad Anheliger

Pro Record
13-8-0
UFC Record
2-3 across 5 bouts since 2022
Streak
Lost his last — unanimous decision to Cody Gibson, Nov 2, 2024
Finish Rate
77% (10 of 13 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 3 submission
Avg Fight Time
~12:48 UFC (64:01 across 5)
Chin · Never stopped by strikes in the UFCSOS · UFCVolume striker / decision tester

The veteran with the only real sample. He is 2-3 in the UFC with a recent arc that is decision-heavy: lost a unanimous decision to Cody Gibson on November 2, 2024, won a unanimous decision over Charalampos Grigoriou on March 16, 2024, and was rear-naked-choked by Jose Johnson in Round 3 on November 18, 2023. The hole in the ledger is structural — 75% of his eight losses are submissions (six of eight). The bright lines are striking defence (53% StrDef, 2.76 SApM absorbed) and decision durability — Gibson could not finish him in three rounds. DWCS 2021: unanimous decision over Muin Gafurov.

Steven Koslow ESPN fighter headshot

Steven Koslow

Pro Record
6-1-0
UFC Record
0-1 — one bout, went three rounds
Streak
Lost his last UFC outing — TKO to Cameron Saaiman, R3 4:13
Finish Rate
100% (6 of 6 wins) — all submission
Avg Fight Time
15:00 UFC; short regional finishes
Chin · Stopped by strikes once (Saaiman R3); never submittedSOS · Regional + one UFC night10th Planet submission finisher

Binary on paper, flagged in the Octagon. Six wins, six submissions, zero decisions. His lone UFC test went three rounds against Cameron Saaiman — 5.28 takedowns per fifteen at 55% accuracy, 3.73 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 0% takedown defence, and a Round-3 TKO loss at 4:13. He then went 5-0 on the regional circuit, all by submission, before this call-up after a 3+ year UFC layoff. The useful fact is not the 0.77 SLpM — it is that he hunted the neck for fifteen minutes and lost by strikes.

Chad Anheliger
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Steven Koslow
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Chad Anheligersignature weapons

Counter Left to Ground-and-PoundJesse Strader, Round 3 3:33, UFC FN — Feb 19, 2022 — the clearest UFC finish on the ledger
×1
Volume Boxing3.11 SLpM at 53% StrDef — decision wins over Grigoriou; Gibson could not finish him
×0
Light Takedown Overlay0.68 TD/15 at 30% — not a primary weapon, but enough to mix levels against 0% UFC TDD
×0

Steven Koslowsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeFour of six career wins — Combat Night streak plus regional run; pointed at 38% TDD
×4
KimuraAnthony Retic, R1 1:34, Combat Night Pro 20 — 10th Planet transition threat
×1
Chain Wrestling5.28 TD/15 at 55% in lone UFC sample — must convert against Anheliger's sprawl
×0

Chad Anheliger

L
Cody Gibson
Decision — Unanimous
RR3 (5:00)
UFC FN — Nov 2, 2024
W
Charalampos Grigoriou
Decision — Unanimous
RR3 (5:00)
UFC FN — Mar 16, 2024
L
Jose Johnson
Submission — Rear-naked choke
RR3 (4:49)
UFC FN — Nov 18, 2023
L
Alatengheili
Decision — Unanimous
RR3 (5:00)
UFC 279 — Sep 10, 2022
W
Jesse Strader
TKO — Counter left to G&P
RR3 (3:33)
UFC FN — Feb 19, 2022
Pattern

Five UFC fights in the sample — three decisions and two finishes in the last five. He has gone to the scorecards in four of his last five. The Johnson loss is the live underdog blueprint: a rear-naked choke in Round 3 after minutes of wrestling. Form for this matchup: UFC-tested, decision-durable, and submission-vulnerable late.

Steven Koslow

L
Cameron Saaiman
TKO — Knees & uppercuts
RR3 (4:13)
UFC 282 — Dec 10, 2022
W
James Dunn
Submission — Rear-naked choke
RR1 (4:05)
Combat Night Pro — Jul 16, 2022
W
Marcelo Williams
Submission — Rear-naked choke
RR1 (2:29)
Combat Night Pro — Nov 6, 2021
W
Anthony Retic
Submission — Kimura
RR1 (1:34)
Combat Night Pro 20 — Mar 13, 2021
W
Ginseng Du Jour
Submission — Rear-naked choke
RR1 (4:01)
Combat Night Pro 18 — Mar 21, 2020
Pattern

4-1 in his last five, with the one loss the only UFC bout. The four wins are a Combat Night submission streak — all finishes, mostly Round 1. Five additional regional submission wins sit between Saaiman and this call-up. Form for this matchup: lethal on the regional mat, untested at UFC striking pace for three years, and the one UFC data point ended by strikes in Round 3.

Chad Anheliger

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Steven Koslow

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both ledgers close cleanly against the event-card records — Anheliger 7 KO + 3 Sub + 3 Dec = 13 wins, Koslow 6 Sub = 6 wins. Anheliger's loss profile is submission-heavy (6 of 8); Koslow's win profile is submission-only (6 of 6). That symmetry is why Koslow is 38%, not 25%. The offset is Koslow's one UFC night ended by TKO, not RNC, after 3.73 SApM — and Anheliger's last two UFC results were decisions.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Chad
0
Stevensmall sample

Anheliger's 3.11 / 46 / 53 / 2.76 is the most honest rate line on the page. Koslow's 0.77 / 37 / 40 / 3.73 is one Saaiman fight and is flagged void; the 38 is reconstructed from career shape and absorption, not from SLpM alone.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Chadsmall sample
0
Stevensmall sample

Anheliger's 38% TDD is real and is the underdog's best number. Koslow's 5.28 TD/15 and 1.1 Sub/15 come from a one-bout sample with zero UFC sub wins — the 58 is a career-shape estimate (6/6 subs), not a measurement.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Chad
0
Stevensmall sample

A tie on paper — striking to Anheliger, grappling threat to Koslow. The 62/38 lean is not this cell.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Chadsmall sample
0
Stevensmall sample

Anheliger is 39 but has gone fifteen minutes in four of his last five. Koslow went three rounds with Saaiman but faded into a TKO; 3+ year layoff caps the score.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Chadsmall sample
0
Stevensmall sample

Modest edge to the veteran. The 62/38 lean is sample, striking profile, and decision path — minus six career submission losses and Koslow's perfect sub ledger.

MetricChadSteven
UFC Avg Fight Time~12:48 (5 bouts)15:00 (1 bout)small sample
Prior UFC Bouts51
Days Since Last Fight~349 — fought Nov 2, 2024~1,042+ — fought Dec 10, 2022
Finish Rate77% (10 of 13)100% (6 of 6)
Pace TierSteady volume — 3.11 SLpMUnmeasured — one-bout samplesmall sample

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Striker / Decision Tester 62%38% Pure Submission Finisher

No archetype base-rate row — Koslow has one UFC bout · No historical archetype win-rate is applied, because Koslow has no usable UFC row beyond one flagged sample. The 62-38 lean is a qualitative override of near-tied technical composites (49.5 to 47): five Octagon bouts and a cleaner striking/defence profile against a 100% submission finisher with a 3+ year layoff, minus 38% TDD and six career submission losses.

Chad AnheligerSteven Koslow

Bantamweight

· 60 fighters
StatChadChad rankDiv avgSteven rankSteven
SLpM3.11~4.0–4.30.77 — one-bout sample, void
Str Acc46%~44–48%37% — one-bout sample
Str Def53%~52–55%40% — one-bout sample
SApM2.76~4.0–4.33.73 — one-bout sample
TD/150.68~1.5–1.85.28 — one-bout sample
TD Acc30%~38–42%55% — one-bout sample
TD Def38%~62–66%0% — one-bout sample, void
Sub/150.5~0.51.1 — 0 UFC sub wins
Prior UFC Bouts51
UFC Avg Fight Time~12:4815:00
Statistical Verdict
On every non-void cell Anheliger owns, Koslow is a one-fight screenshot. The two cells that decide the upset are Anheliger TDDef 38% and Koslow TD/15 5.28 — real vulnerability meets flagged but directionally scary offense. The one Koslow fact that does not need a rate line is the Round-3 TKO loss after failing to finish by submission.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Chad Anheliger

R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Steven Koslow

Control Time per Round (sec)

Chad Anheliger

  • No published round-split table. Five UFC results are round-stamped from the fight log, not from v_fighter_rxr_complete.
  • Finishes: Strader TKO R3 3:33 (Feb 19, 2022). Losses: Johnson RNC R3 4:49 (Nov 18, 2023).
  • Four of last five went the distance — Gibson L, Grigoriou W, Johnson L, Alatengheili L. Equity is back-loaded.

Steven Koslow

  • One complete three-round sample: Cameron Saaiman, UFC 282, December 10, 2022 — TKO R3 4:13.
  • Hunted submissions for three rounds; 0% takedown defence; finished by knees and uppercuts, not RNC.
  • Regional last-five finishes cluster in Round 1 (Dunn, Williams, Retic, Du Jour).
Critical Insight
If this is still competitive at minute ten, Anheliger's decision path is live and Koslow's 0% decision win rate becomes a problem. If Koslow gets early top control, Anheliger's six submission losses are the entire fight.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Chad · N/ASteven · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceChad owns it

3.11 volume and 53% StrDef against a 0.77 SLpM sample — until switch kicks from 69" land

Pocket / ExchangesChad owns it

Anheliger's defence and Gibson/Grigoriou decision path — Koslow must close to wrestle

ClinchEven

Saaiman finished with knees and uppercuts here; Johnson hunted the back from scrambles

GroundSteven owns it

6/6 Koslow sub wins versus 6/8 Anheliger sub losses — the entire upset lives here

Path to Victory

Chad Anheliger

Win the striking minutes at range, sprawl on the first 5.28 entries, and either outwork him on the cards or find a late TKO the way he finished Strader — without giving up his back in Round 3.

Why they win
01
The only real UFC sample

Five bouts and a rate line versus one flagged three-round bout.

02
Striking volume and defence

3.11 SLpM, 53% StrDef, 2.76 SApM absorbed.

03
Decision durability

Three UFC decisions in the last five; Gibson could not finish him.

04
Canadian card in Alberta

Champion's Creed fighter on a Canadian Fight Night.

05
Knows the submission danger

Six sub losses; Johnson RNC is on tape.

06
Layoff edge

Active in 2024 versus 3+ years since Saaiman.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Sprawl first

    The fight is lost on the mat; Johnson and six prior sub losses say so.

  2. 2
    Jab-and-move at 64" reach

    Do not kickbox at 69" switch range for free.

  3. 3
    Volume in Round 2

    Gibson and Grigoriou say he can win minutes; bank them.

  4. 4
    Round 3 neck discipline

    Johnson finished at 4:49 — the back is live late.

  5. 5
    Contingency: wall-walk

    If taken down, flat defense immediately — do not give Koslow your back.

Path to Victory

Steven Koslow

Close distance, chain takedowns against 38% TDD, ride to a rear-naked choke or kimura before Anheliger's volume accumulates — or hurt him standing late the way Saaiman did.

Why they win
01
100% submission win rate

Six of six — the clearest finishing identity on the prelim card.

02
5.28 TD/15 at 55%

Aimed at 38% takedown defence.

03
+5" reach on switch stance

Kicking and entry geometry.

04
Ten years younger

29 vs 39.

05
10th Planet system

Kimura, RNC, unorthodox entries.

06
Saaiman Round 3

Proved he can survive late and land fight-ending strikes.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Immediate level change

    5.28 TD/15 only matters if the first shot lands.

  2. 2
    Chain wrestling through the sprawl

    38% TDD means two and three shots, not one.

  3. 3
    10th Planet transitions

    Kimura to back take; RNC is the finish.

  4. 4
    Survive Round 1 striking

    Absorb, clinch, drag.

  5. 5
    Contingency: Saaiman knees

    If stuck standing in Round 3, clinch knees already finished one UFC fight.

Danger Zone

How Chad Anheliger loses

  • He gets taken down early, gives up his back, and becomes submission loss number seven — Johnson replay.

  • He wins two rounds and gets rear-naked-choked in Round 3 after fatigue compromises his sprawl.

  • He out-strikes Koslow for two rounds but Saaiman-style knees and uppercuts end it in the third.

Danger Zone

How Steven Koslow loses

  • Anheliger keeps it standing, stacks 3.11 SLpM into 3.73 SApM absorption, and wins a 30-27 he cannot appeal — zero career decisions.

  • He shoots repeatedly into better-striking defence, gasses, and gets TKO'd in Round 3 again.

  • The three-year layoff shows in the first exchange and he never establishes his grappling.

Why 62 is not 75

Submission Losses Are the Price of the Favourite

Anheliger is the correct favourite because of UFC sample and striking profile. He is a 62% favourite rather than a 75% favourite because 75% of his losses are submissions. Jose Johnson needed Round 3. The neck is not theoretical — it is the ledger.

6
Career submission losses on Anheliger's record
Saaiman R3 TKO, not RNC

One UFC Bout Is Not a Style; It Is a Result

Koslow's UFCStats line will look like a volume wrestler who cannot strike or defend takedowns. He is a 6-1 submission finisher who lost a striking fight in Round 3. Six regional subs since say the grappling threat is real; the UFC exit says the ceiling is not automatic.

15:00
Koslow's lone UFC sample length
Calgary ≠ Edmonton, but Canada counts

Edmonton Is a Nudge for the Canadian

Anheliger is Canadian on a Canadian card against an American from 10th Planet. That is worth points on a 29-28. It is not worth rewriting five UFC bouts versus one.

Who owns the range

Reach and Switch versus Orthodox Volume

Koslow 69" switch versus Anheliger 64" orthodox is a real physical fork. In open space Koslow should own the kicking plane; in the pocket Anheliger's 3.11 SLpM and 53% StrDef should bank minutes.

+5"
Koslow reach edge
Five UFC names versus Combat Night

Strength of Schedule, Qualitatively

Anheliger's last five opponents are all UFC. Koslow's last five are Saaiman plus four Combat Night subs. That gap is the spine of 62. The offset is Johnson R3 and 100% sub wins.

The Five-Round Clock

Chad Anheliger danger windowSteven Koslow danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Sprawl versus first shot

Koslow's regional wins cluster in Round 1; Anheliger must survive the first chain without giving his back. Anheliger's volume should bank minutes if he stays standing — but 38% TDD is live from the opening bell.

Critical Insight
The fight has a three-act clock: survive the first shots, bank volume in the middle, and navigate a Round 3 where both Johnson and Saaiman have already written templates. If the horn sounds after Round 2 with Anheliger ahead, his 28% decision bucket is in play; if Koslow has top control, the 24% submission bucket is.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Anheliger 62% / Koslow 38% at conviction 4/10. Composites finish 49.5 to 47; the lean is sample and striking, not the gauges.

2

Anheliger has five UFC bouts and the cleaner striking/defence line. Koslow is 6/6 by submission with 5.28 TD/15 into 38% TDD — but his UFC exit was TKO, not RNC.

3

Anheliger by decision (28%) is the largest bucket. Koslow by submission (24%) is the live dog ticket. 66 of 100 simulations end inside the distance.

100 Simulated Fights

Anheliger Decision 28%Anheliger Submission 12%Anheliger KO/TKO 22%Koslow Submission 24%Koslow KO/TKO 8%Koslow Decision 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Chad Anheliger gold · Steven Koslow orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

UFC sample quality

Five bouts and a rate line versus one flagged three-round bout. The largest single reason Anheliger is favoured.

Striking profile

3.11 SLpM, 53% StrDef, 2.76 SApM versus 0.77 / 40 / 3.73 from n=1.

Submission asymmetry

Six Anheliger sub losses versus six Koslow sub wins — keeps conviction at four.

Takedown fork

5.28 TD/15 into 38% TDD — the entire underdog path.

Decision paths

Anheliger 28% decision bucket; Koslow has zero career decision wins.

Saaiman template

R3 TKO, not RNC — why Koslow KO is 8%, not zero.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Grigoriou Template

Anheliger keeps it standing, stacks volume for three rounds, and wins a decision Koslow has never earned in six tries — the single most probable path.

Scripted outcomes for Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Chad Anheliger win probability
0%
22%
28%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Strader R3 template and seven career KOs — not the primary recent path after back-to-back decisions, but live if volume accumulates.

  • The largest bucket — Grigoriou/Gibson path against a man with zero career decision wins.

  • Three career subs and 0.5 Sub/15 into 0% UFC TDD — secondary scramble outcome.

Steven Koslow win probability
0%
8%
6%
24%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Saaiman R3 knees and uppercuts — fully priced at 8%, not zero.

  • Structural long shot — 0-0 in decisions across six wins.

  • The live underdog ticket — 100% win rate by sub into 38% TDD, Johnson R3 on tape.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Chad
R3
Even
30-27 Anheliger
Volume rounds 1 and 2, competitive third
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them — 28% of the simulation
29-28 Anheliger
Close second, Canadian nudge
Live if Round 1 goes to Koslow's wrestling
29-28 Koslow
Steals a round on the ground or crowd
The 6% decision bucket — structural long shot

Moneyline

Chad Anheliger
Not posted
Steven Koslow
Not posted

No sportsbook has published a line on this bout and none is invented here. The model's fair prices from the 62/38 split are Chad Anheliger −163 and Steven Koslow +163. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the Edmonton card.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
The props table is empty because no market exists, so the numbers below are our model's percentages and the fair prices they imply. Anheliger by Decision at 28% (fair +257) is the structural lean. Koslow by Submission at 24% (fair +317) is the live underdog ticket. Fight does NOT go the distance at 66% (fair −194) is honest chalk. Avoid Koslow by Decision at 6% (+1567) unless the price is absurd.
Conviction
0
4/10

A real lean built on UFC sample and striking profile, capped because the favourite has been submitted six times, the underdog's submission win rate is perfect, and half of Koslow's rate line is a one-fight screenshot. Lean: Chad Anheliger.

What backs the lean
  • Five UFC bouts versus one flagged three-round bout.

  • SLpM 3.11, StrDef 53%, SApM 2.76 — clearest non-void profile.

  • Decision wins over Grigoriou; Gibson could not finish him.

  • Canadian fighter on Alberta card.

  • Koslow's UFC exit was TKO, not submission.

  • ~349-day layoff versus 3+ years since Saaiman.

What limits it
  • 100% submission win rate — six of six.

  • 5.28 TD/15 into 38% TDD.

  • 75% of Anheliger losses are subs — Johnson RNC R3 on tape.

  • +5" reach, switch stance, ten years younger.

  • 0% Koslow TDD and 3.73 SApM are real but n=1.

  • Composites finish 49.5 to 47; the lean overrides on qualitative grounds.

Final Assessment

In roughly 62 of 100 simulations, Chad "The Monster" Anheliger wins the minutes that matter — most often by outworking Koslow on the cards the way he did against Grigoriou and the way Gibson failed to stop him (28% decision), sometimes with a late TKO after accumulation the way he finished Strader in Round 3 (22% KO/TKO), and sometimes by finding a submission against a man who has never defended a UFC takedown (12% submission). Every one of those paths is cleaner if the first layer of sprawls holds.

In the other 38, Steven Koslow makes the grappling tax due — a rear-naked choke or kimura against the same 38% takedown defence that Johnson exploited late (24% submission), Saaiman-style knees and uppercuts in Round 3 after surviving the early storm (8% KO/TKO), or a shock decision if Anheliger gasses and the crowd carries a round (6%). He has never won a decision; that bucket is structural long-shot, not the base case.

The data gives Anheliger the sample, the striking, the decision path and the Canadian card; it gives Koslow the perfect submission ledger, the takedown volume and the Johnson/Saaiman templates pointing in opposite directions. We take Anheliger 62/38 at four out of ten, and we will not pretend the neck is not live.

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