The richest evidence in this matchup is the list of opponents the two women share, six in all. Blanchfield is 5-2 against them and Jasudavicius 4-2, which looks even until the individual results are compared. Tracy Cortez out-landed Jasudavicius 103-77 in 2023; Jasudavicius has said she broke her orbital early in Round 1, which is a real mitigating factor. Blanchfield, who had lost a split decision to Cortez on the regional scene, won their rematch's first round on the feet 43-32 and choked her out in Round 2 last November. Miranda Maverick was edged by Jasudavicius and overwhelmed by Blanchfield: 46-21 on strikes, 7 of 8 takedowns and twelve minutes of control. Andrade cuts the other way, since Jasudavicius finished her faster, but two years of Andrade's decline sit between those fights. And Manon Fiorot beat both: Blanchfield over five one-sided rounds without ever being hurt, Jasudavicius in 74 seconds.
The grappling question is unusual because both women are used to being the one on top. Jasudavicius controls 7:18 of every fifteen minutes she fights; Blanchfield 5:45. Between them they have been held down for less than seven minutes across 21 UFC fights. Something has to give, and the model's reading is that the answer depends on the phase. Jasudavicius is the better rider. Her body-lock takedowns land 45% of the time, 57% across her last seven fights, and Blanchfield's own takedowns have stopped landing against top opposition. Blanchfield is the better scrambler. She is a black belt who has never had a submission attempted on her in the UFC, and her last two submissions came from taking the back as opponents moved. If the body lock lands and holds, Jasudavicius wins rounds. If it lands and Blanchfield turns it into a scramble, Blanchfield can end the fight.
Then there are the things that sit outside the rate stats. Blanchfield is ten years younger and has fought ten championship rounds, and her control rises into Round 3 just as Jasudavicius's takedown success falls. Against that, Blanchfield has not fought in 336 days and withdrew from the August date injured, the first withdrawal of her UFC career. Jasudavicius will have a Canadian crowd in an arena where she has already won, and she is 5-1 in the UFC at home. Her most recent fight, a narrow decision over Karine Silva built on control and just 18 significant strikes, is the clearest preview of how she wins this one. The model gives that version of the fight 28 in 100 and keeps Blanchfield the side.
