CO-MAIN EVENT · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 5 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Erin Blanchfield — Women's Flyweight fighter

Erin Blanchfield

“Cold Blooded”
14W2L
Submission Grappler
…
VS
Jasmine Jasudavicius — Women's Flyweight fighter

Jasmine Jasudavicius

15W4L
Clinch Wrestler
…

0.9 submissions per fifteen minutes, aimed at the only phase the wrestler wants

Women's FlyweightRogers Place, Edmonton, AlbertaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two grapplers, and the one who wants the mat most is the one in danger on it. Jasmine Jasudavicius lands 2.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes — 4th of 32 active women's flyweights — and averages 175 seconds of control in a second round. Erin Blanchfield attempts 0.9 submissions per fifteen minutes, 5th in the same pool, and stops 78% of takedowns. The wrestler's best weapon delivers her into the finisher's best position. Underneath that sits a cleaner divergence: both women fought Manon Fiorot, and Blanchfield lost a competitive twenty-five minutes while Jasudavicius was stopped in 74 seconds.

Erin Blanchfield
Attribute
Jasmine Jasudavicius
2710 years
Age
37
5'4"
Height
+3" Jasudavicius5'7"
66"
Reach
+2" Jasudavicius68"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
#3
Division Rank
#6
Not listed in database
Team
Niagara Top Team
Sep 18, 2021
Octagon Debut
Jan 22, 2022
Jiu-Jitsu — back-takes and chokes
Fighting Style
Clinch wrestling and top control

Jasudavicius owns the frame — three inches of height, two of reach, and the residual bantamweight strength that built her clinch identity. Blanchfield owns the clock by ten years, 27 against 37, in a fight whose deciding currency is scramble speed and recovery between grappling exchanges. Neither woman has a leg reach on file. The ranking gap is the smaller separator that matters: #3 against #6 in the same division, the highest-placed pairing on the Edmonton card.

Venue Factor
Rogers Place is Jasudavicius's most valuable single variable. St. Catharines is 2,000 miles east of Edmonton but this is Canadian soil, Niagara Top Team in the corner, and a crowd that will be loud from the walkout through the first clinch entry — which is exactly where her 118 seconds of average first-round control gets built. The analysis prices that home effect explicitly: it moves the line roughly four points, from a neutral three-round read near 64/36 to the 60/40 published here. What it does not do is create championship-round tape. Twenty-five minutes is scheduled, and Jasudavicius has never fought past the third.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Erin Blanchfield applying a submission choke on the Octagon mat

Erin Blanchfield

Pro Record
14-2-0
UFC Record
8-1 across nine bouts since 2021
Streak
Two straight — rear-naked choke of Tracy Cortez at UFC 322
Finish Rate
Four of her eight UFC wins by submission; no UFC knockouts
Avg Fight Time
13:37
Chin · Iron — never finishedSOS · EliteJiu-Jitsu (database label) — submission finisher off scrambles

Nine Octagon fights, eight wins, and a résumé with exactly one hole in it. She submitted Molly McCann in the first, JJ Aldrich in the second, then took the back of Jessica Andrade in 1:37 and Tracy Cortez in 4:44 of the second — four submissions of four credentialed opponents. Between them she out-pointed Rose Namajunas over five rounds and Taila Santos over three. The Fiorot loss is the one blemish, and it reads better than most losses: twenty-five minutes, a unanimous decision, never hurt, never dropped, and her output rose in the championship rounds. Her measured striking is the quiet surprise — 5.24 significant strikes a minute, 7th of 32 in the division, and 58% defence.

Jasmine Jasudavicius landing a punch against Jessica Andrade

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Pro Record
15-4-0
UFC Record
8-3 across the eleven bouts in the database
Streak
Database snapshot ends on the Fiorot stoppage; the event file carries a later win it does not name
Finish Rate
Three of her eight database UFC wins by submission; five by decision
Avg Fight Time
12:34
Chin · Iron knockdown mark — one TKO lossSOS · StrongBrawler (database label) — clinch-control wrestler in practice

A late-blooming grinder who built one of the division's most reliable win templates: clinch, takedown, 135 seconds of control per round, three cards. Kay Hansen, Miranda Maverick, Mayra Bueno Silva and Fatima Kline all lost that way. The finishes came when the control turned into a neck — an anaconda on Priscila Cachoeira in the third, a D'Arce on Ariane da Silva in the third, then a rear-naked choke of Jessica Andrade in 2:40 that was the best minute of her career. Then Manon Fiorot took 74 seconds. That is the durability asterisk her iron knockdown number hides, and against a division-best submission threat it is the number that keeps her at 40%.

Erin Blanchfield
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Jasmine Jasudavicius
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Erin Blanchfieldsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeJessica Andrade in 1:37 of R2, Tracy Cortez in 4:44 of R2 — both off back-takes against ranked opponents
×2
Front-Position Chokes & KimuraMolly McCann by kimura in 3:37 of R1, JJ Aldrich by guillotine in 2:38 of R2 — 0.9 submission attempts per 15 min, 5th of 32
×2

Jasmine Jasudaviciussignature weapons

Front-Headlock ChokesPriscila Cachoeira by anaconda in 4:21 of R3, Ariane da Silva by D'Arce in 2:28 of R3 — both late, both off accumulated control
×2
Clinch Takedown into ControlFive UFC decisions built on 2.63 takedowns per 15 min (4th of 32) and 175 seconds of average second-round control
×5

Erin Blanchfield

W
Tracy Cortez
SUB — Rear-Naked Choke
RR2 (4:44)
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
W
Rose Namajunas
Decision — Unanimous (5 rds)
RR5
UFC FN: Namajunas vs. Blanchfield — Nov 2, 2024
L
Manon Fiorot
Decision — Unanimous (5 rds)
RR5
UFC FN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot — Mar 30, 2024
W
Taila Santos
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
W
Jessica Andrade
SUB — Rear-Naked Choke
RR2 (1:37)
UFC FN: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Pattern

Four elite-tier opponents in five fights and only Fiorot got past her. The two submissions bracket the run and they are the same picture: a durable, credentialed opponent taken to the mat or caught in a scramble, and a back-take inside the second round. Andrade lasted 1:37, Cortez 4:44. The two decisions are the other half of the argument — Namajunas over five rounds, Santos over three, both won without a finish available. She has never been stopped, and against Fiorot she got busier as the fight got longer.

Jasmine Jasudavicius

W
Karine Silva
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN — Apr 18, 2026
L
Manon Fiorot
KO/TKO
RR1 (1:14)
UFC FN: De Ridder vs. Allen
W
Jessica Andrade
SUB — Rear-Naked Choke
RR1 (2:40)
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
W
Mayra Bueno Silva
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Adesanya vs. Imavov
W
Fatima Kline
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Namajunas vs. Cortez
Pattern

Strip Fiorot and this is a fighter surging: an Andrade rear-naked choke that beat Blanchfield's own finish of the same opponent for speed, two control decisions, and a third-round D'Arce. Include Fiorot and the co-main question writes itself. Seventy-four seconds against the division's best is not a bad night, it is a level reading — and it came in the exact phase, the ground, where she intends to spend this fight. Her three most recent finishes all arrived in the round in which her opponent was already tired.

Erin Blanchfield

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are career method splits carried over from the analysis file and they look almost identical — roughly 55% decisions, roughly 30% submissions, a pair of regional knockouts each. The round bars are the honest UFC-only read from the fight log, and they are not identical at all. Every one of Blanchfield's four Octagon submissions landed in the first or second round: McCann in 3:37 of the first, Aldrich in 2:38 of the second, Andrade in 1:37, Cortez in 4:44. Two of Jasudavicius's three arrived in the third, after the control had done its work. Opposite finishing clocks, in a fight scheduled for five rounds.

Common Opponents

OpponentErinJasmine
Manon FiorotL· UD5 — twenty-five competitive minutesL· KO/TKO R1 (1:14)
The cleanest single data point on the card: same elite opponent, a full championship fight against a 74-second stoppage
Jessica AndradeW· SUB (RNC) R2 (1:37)W· SUB (RNC) R1 (2:40)
Both took the back of the same former champion — the one shared result that genuinely rhymes
Tracy CortezW· SUB (RNC) R2 (4:44), UFC 322L· UD3
The transitive line: Cortez out-pointed Jasudavicius, then Blanchfield choked Cortez
Miranda MaverickW· UD3 (UFC 269)W· UD3 (UFC 289)
A tie — both banked the decision, neither found a finish
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Erin
0
Jasmine

The grappler is the better striker. Blanchfield lands 5.24 a minute (7th of 32) and blocks 58% (12th); Jasudavicius lands 3.47 (19th) and blocks 51% (24th). A seventeen-point gap removes Jasudavicius's standing fallback entirely.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Erin
0
Jasmine

The only column Jasudavicius wins, and the analysis calls it a trap. The formula rewards her 2.63 takedowns and 46% accuracy; it under-prices Blanchfield's 0.9 submission attempts and 78% denial. Volume wins the score, finishing wins the fight.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Erin
0
Jasmine

Seven points, and they come from balance. Blanchfield is competent-to-good in both phases; Jasudavicius is bottom-third significant striking propped up by wrestling volume that routes straight into the other woman's best game.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · late-round output · champ rounds

0
Erin
0
Jasminesmall sample

Blanchfield has two twenty-five-minute fights on record and her output rose in both — 38.5 significant strikes in an average fourth round. Jasudavicius has an elite three-round motor and zero rounds of championship-distance data at 37 years old.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Erin
0.0
Jasminesmall sample

Seven and a half points, and a 60-40 model line that sits right on them. A clear lean rather than a blowout — the size, the control volume and Rogers Place hold the underdog's floor up.

MetricErinJasmine
Avg Fight Time13:3712:34
Pace TierHigh volume — 5.24 SLpM (7th/32)Low volume — 3.47 SLpM (19th/32)
Control per Round86 / 116 / 158 / 27 / 135 sec118 / 175 / 116 sec (R1-R3 only)small sample
R3/R1 Output81% (22.6 vs 27.8 sig)136% (19.0 vs 14.0 sig)
Champ Rounds4 rounds of R4-R5 data across two fightsNone — never past R3small sample

Archetype Base Rate

Jiu-Jitsu Submission Grappler 60%40% Pressure Wrestler / Clinch Control

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 60-40 is the analysis file's published line: a neutral three-round read sits nearer 64-36, and roughly four points are given back for Rogers Place and the early-round pace a home crowd buys.

Erin BlanchfieldJasmine Jasudavicius

Women's Flyweight

· 32 fighters
StatErinErin rankDiv avgJasmine rankJasmine
SLpM5.24
7/32
4.66
19/32
3.47
Str Acc44%
20/32
46.3%
15/32
44%
Str Def58%
12/32
55.5%
24/32
51%
SApM4.25
20/32
4.08
17/32
3.46
KD Avg0.00
20/32
0.32
15/32
0.10
TD/151.96
10/32
1.40
4/32elite
2.63
TD Acc34%
19/32
36.2%
8/32
46%
TD Def78%
8/32
65.9%
11/32
75%
Sub/150.90
5/32elite
0.46
10/32
0.50
Division Rank#3———#6
Avg Fight Time13:37———12:34
Statistical Verdict
Jasudavicius wins two rows outright — 4th in takedown volume and 8th in takedown accuracy — and both of them describe how she gets to the place she is least safe. Her worst column is 24th of 32 in striking defence, which is the door Blanchfield's 5.24 strikes a minute walks through, and Blanchfield's best column is 5th of 32 in submission attempts (0.9 per fifteen), which is the door Jasudavicius's own gameplan opens for her. There is no row on this table where the underdog's strength is not also her exposure.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R4, R5: single-fight sample for Jasmine Jasudavicius

Control Time per Round (sec)

Erin Blanchfield

  • Control climbs through the first three rounds — 86, 116 then 158 seconds — and her accuracy climbs with it, from 44% to 48%. The third round is where she is already grappling, not where she starts to.
  • The fourth round is the outlier that matters: 38.5 significant strikes, the highest figure either fighter posts in any round, all of it at distance and with 27 seconds of control. Two rounds of sample, both against Fiorot and Namajunas.
  • She is a distance fighter first — 79.2% of her opening-round offence lands at range, against Jasudavicius's 61.0% — and only 14.4% of it on the ground. The mat is where she finishes, not where she works.

Jasmine Jasudavicius

  • Control peaks in the second round at 175 seconds, nearly three minutes of a five-minute round, and her accuracy peaks with it at 52%. That round is her whole fight in one number.
  • Her offence is the mirror image of Blanchfield's: 29.2% of her first-round strikes land on the ground and 32.7% in the second, against 14.4% and 23.6%. She works from top, and body strikes climb to 26.9% by the third.
  • There are no fourth- or fifth-round rows. Eleven first rounds, nine seconds and nine thirds are in the database; past fifteen minutes there is no tape at all, which is why both deep rounds are blank rather than estimated.
Critical Insight
Control time is the axis and it flips at the fifteen-minute mark. Jasudavicius out-controls Blanchfield in the first round (118 to 86) and doubles her in the second (175 to 116); by the third Blanchfield is ahead (158 to 116) and the underdog's identity round is already behind her. Then the data stops. Blanchfield's fourth round averages 38.5 significant strikes and her fifth still carries 135 seconds of control across two championship fights; Jasudavicius has never been there. In a bout scheduled for twenty-five minutes, the fighter whose profile improves after fifteen is the favourite.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

ErinJasmine
79%Distance64%
6%Clinch12%
15%Ground24%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceErin owns it

5.24 SLpM and 58% defence against 3.47 and 51% — the underdog's worst column, 24th of 32

Pocket / ExchangesErin owns it

Neither woman has power (0.00 and 0.10 knockdowns), so volume decides — and volume is Blanchfield's

ClinchJasmine owns it

2.63 takedowns per 15 min (4th of 32) at 46% accuracy, and 175 seconds of average second-round control

GroundErin owns it

0.9 submission attempts per 15 min (5th of 32) against an opponent who has never been tapped in eleven Octagon fights

Path to Victory

Erin Blanchfield

Stuff the entries and let the fight be a fight. 78% takedown defence, 5.24 strikes a minute against a 51% defence, and a back-take waiting every time the wrestler commits — she does not need to out-grapple Jasudavicius, only to survive the phase and punish it.

Why they win
01
The better striker is the grappler

5.24 significant strikes a minute (7th of 32) and 58% defence (12th) against 3.47 and 51% (24th). Jasudavicius has no standing plan B, and every minute spent at range is a Blanchfield minute.

02
0.9 submissions per fifteen minutes

5th of 32 active flyweights, against a divisional average of 0.46 — and it is aimed at the exact position Jasudavicius spends her fight trying to reach.

03
78% takedown defence

8th in the division and the plan-denial tool. She can beat the control gameplan without ever needing to out-wrestle it for volume.

04
The Fiorot divergence

Twenty-five competitive minutes against a 74-second stoppage, against the same opponent. It is the cleanest level reading available on this card.

05
Ten years and the only championship tape

27 against 37, with 38.5 significant strikes in an average fourth round and 135 seconds of control in an average fifth. Jasudavicius has zero rounds past the third.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Win the standing minutes early

    Jab, volume, 79.2% of her first-round offence at distance. Force Jasudavicius to shoot from disadvantage rather than from a chosen moment.

  2. 2
    Defend the fence, not the mat

    78% takedown defence is a denial tool. Frame, circle off the cage, and make each failed level change a scoring event of its own.

  3. 3
    Treat top control as opportunity

    If she does get put down, the back is the answer, not survival. Andrade and Cortez are the script and both ended in the second round.

  4. 4
    Close inside ten minutes if the position comes

    Every one of her four Octagon submissions landed in the first or second. The window is real and it is early.

  5. 5
    Take the fight past fifteen

    38.5 significant strikes in an average fourth round, and an opponent with no round-four tape at all. Deep water is her asset, not her risk.

Path to Victory

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Twenty-five safe minutes. Size, a loud building, 175 seconds of control a round and never once gambling into a scramble — the Bueno Silva and Kline template, run five times instead of three.

Why they win
01
Elite takedown volume

2.63 per fifteen minutes, 4th of 32, at 46% accuracy (8th). Against a division average of 1.40 this is a repeatable, physical, high-percentage lever.

02
175 seconds of second-round control

Nearly three minutes of a five-minute round, and 52% striking accuracy inside it. Her peak round is a card-winning round on any judge's sheet.

03
Three inches and bantamweight strength

+3" height and +2" reach with the frame that built the clinch identity. Size is the one attribute Blanchfield cannot train away by fight night.

04
Never submitted

Eleven Octagon fights and nobody has tapped her. Blanchfield's best path has to be earned against a genuine base, not simply walked into.

05
Rogers Place

Canadian soil, Niagara Top Team, and a crowd that arrives with her — worth roughly four points on the model line and most of them in the first ten minutes.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Steal round one with the building

    118 seconds of average first-round control and a crowd that will make an early clinch takedown feel decisive. Her best chance to be up 10-9 before the fight settles.

  2. 2
    Pin and stay heavy — do not hunt

    Minutes, not taps. The moment she reaches for a finish against this opponent she hands over the back she has been lying on.

  3. 3
    Never play distance kickboxing

    51% striking defence, 24th of 32, against 5.24 a minute. Every standing exchange should be brief and end in a clinch.

  4. 4
    Body work from top

    Body strikes climb from 18.2% of her offence in the first round to 26.9% in the third. Against a younger opponent, the body is the only place she can buy late rounds.

  5. 5
    Ration the shots after fifteen minutes

    If she is stuffed repeatedly, naked entries into 78% defence are how the tank empties. Clinch resets and fence rides beat highlight doubles at 37.

Danger Zone

How Erin Blanchfield loses

  • The fence clinch never breaks. Twenty-five minutes of safe, heavy top control from a bigger woman, with three of the five rounds scored on time rather than damage.

  • A careless late scramble runs into the D'Arce or the anaconda — the exact family of finish that ended Cachoeira and da Silva in third rounds.

  • She wins the early minutes, coasts, and the home judging rewards the underdog's late control optics on a 48-47 card.

Danger Zone

How Jasmine Jasudavicius loses

  • She gets the takedown she wants and it costs her the fight — back taken, RNC, inside ten minutes. Andrade lasted 1:37, Cortez 4:44.

  • The entries get stuffed at 78% and she has no second plan: a standing volume beating at 3.47 strikes a minute against 5.24, which is a slower version of the Fiorot night.

  • She banks the first three rounds and then discovers what round four feels like at 37 against a 27-year-old whose output goes up.

The fight's central axis

The Grappler's Paradox

Jasudavicius takes 2.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 4th of 32 in the division, and every one of them delivers her onto a fighter who attempts 0.9 submissions per fifteen minutes, 5th of 32. Control won her decisions over Bueno Silva, Kline, Hansen and Maverick; it also puts her in the most dangerous square foot of the women's flyweight division.

2.63
Jasudavicius takedowns per 15 min — into a 0.9 Sub/15 opponent
Same opponent, opposite result

The Fiorot Rosetta Stone

Manon Fiorot went twenty-five rounds-worth of minutes with Blanchfield and never hurt her; she stopped Jasudavicius with ground punches in 74 seconds. Two data points against the identical benchmark, and the gap between them is the closest thing this card has to a level reading.

1:14
How long Jasudavicius lasted against the opponent Blanchfield took to a decision
The statistical inversion

The Better Striker Is the Grappler

Blanchfield lands 5.24 significant strikes a minute — 7th of 32 — and blocks 58%. Jasudavicius lands 3.47 and blocks 51%, 24th of 32. The woman billed as the jiu-jitsu player out-strikes the wrestler in volume, defence and damage ratio, which removes the underdog's fallback before the grappling argument even begins.

Where co-main distance decides

The Control Clock Flips at Fifteen Minutes

Jasudavicius out-controls Blanchfield 118 to 86 in the first round and 175 to 116 in the second. By the third Blanchfield is ahead, 158 to 116. Past that the database has nine Jasudavicius third rounds and zero fourths — while Blanchfield averages 38.5 significant strikes in a fourth and 135 seconds of control in a fifth.

175 → 0
Jasudavicius control seconds in R2, and rounds of R4 data
When each woman closes

Opposite Finishing Clocks

All four of Blanchfield's Octagon submissions came in the first or second round. Two of Jasudavicius's three came in the third, after the grind. A five-round booking widens both windows — but it hands Blanchfield two extra rounds in which she has tape and her opponent has none.

The Five-Round Clock

Erin Blanchfield danger windowJasmine Jasudavicius danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The building's round

Jasudavicius averages 118 seconds of first-round control against Blanchfield's 86, and Rogers Place will be at its loudest. Blanchfield's counter is 27.8 significant strikes, her highest-output round, 79.2% of it at distance.

Critical Insight
The fight has a hinge rather than a slope. Jasudavicius owns the first ten minutes on control and crowd, Blanchfield owns everything after fifteen on the only tape that exists, and the second round decides which of those two stories the fight tells. If the underdog is ahead on the cards at the halfway mark without having threatened a finish, she is still only halfway through the deep water her opponent has already swum twice.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Jasmine Jasudavicius takes 2.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 4th of 32 active flyweights — and every one of them puts her on top of a fighter who attempts 0.9 submissions per fifteen minutes, 5th of 32. Her best weapon is her biggest risk.

2

Both women fought Manon Fiorot. Blanchfield lost a competitive twenty-five minutes and was never hurt; Jasudavicius was stopped in 74 seconds. Every other shared opponent — Andrade, Maverick, Cortez transitively — ties or favours Blanchfield.

3

Model: Blanchfield 60% / Jasudavicius 40%, conviction 6/10. The underdog holds nine rounds of third-round data and zero fourths; the favourite averages 38.5 significant strikes in a fourth round.

100 Simulated Fights

Blanchfield Decision — 30%Blanchfield Submission — 24%Blanchfield KO/TKO — 6%Jasudavicius Decision — 24%Jasudavicius Submission — 10%Jasudavicius KO/TKO — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Erin Blanchfield gold · Jasmine Jasudavicius orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The clinch-control war

Jasudavicius's 2.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes against Blanchfield's 78% defence. This is the single variable with the widest branch: it produces the underdog's 24-point decision bucket and the favourite's 24-point submission bucket from the same starting position.

Submission exposure on the mat

0.9 attempts per fifteen minutes, 5th of 32, tempered by the fact that nobody has ever tapped Jasudavicius in eleven Octagon fights. That tension is why the submission bucket is 24 rather than 35.

Standing exchanges

5.24 significant strikes a minute against a 51% defence ranked 24th of 32. Every branch in which the takedowns fail becomes a striking fight the underdog cannot win, which is what carries Blanchfield's 30-point decision bucket.

Rounds four and five

Blanchfield averages 38.5 significant strikes in a fourth round and 135 seconds of control in a fifth. Jasudavicius has no data past the third and turns 37 in March. Championship distance is a silent favourite amplifier.

Rogers Place

The home crowd is priced explicitly: roughly four points, moving a neutral three-round read near 64-36 to the published 60-40. It buys early rounds and judging atmosphere, not deep-water tape.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Denial Decision

Blanchfield stuffs the entries at 78%, wins the standing minutes at nearly two strikes a minute more, and pulls away once the fight passes fifteen. The largest single bucket on the page and the base five-round path — no finish, no drama, a widening card.

Scripted outcomes for Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Erin Blanchfield win probability
0%
6%
30%
24%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six points, and all of it ground-and-pound from dominant top position. She has no knockdowns on record at all — 0.00 per fifteen minutes — and no UFC knockout wins.

  • Her largest bucket and the base five-round path: stuff the entries at 78%, win the standing minutes at 5.24 strikes a minute, and out-work a 37-year-old across rounds four and five.

  • Nearly co-equal with the decision. Four Octagon submissions, all inside ten minutes, and 0.9 attempts per fifteen minutes — held to 24 only because Jasudavicius has never been tapped.

Jasmine Jasudavicius win probability
0%
6%
24%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six points and thin. Her knockdown average is 0.10 and her opponent has never been finished in sixteen professional fights; the one path is ground strikes from established top control.

  • Her primary path and the shape of the Bueno Silva and Kline wins: size, safe control, home pace, and never once gambling into the scramble that ends her night.

  • Ten points from the front-headlock family — the anaconda that finished Cachoeira in the third and the D'Arce that finished da Silva in the third, extended into rounds she has never fought.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Jasmine
R2
Jasmine
R3
Erin
R4
Erin
R5
Erin
48-47 Blanchfield
The underdog takes the loud early rounds and loses the deep ones
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
49-46 Blanchfield
The takedowns never land and the striking gap runs all night
Common if the 78% defence holds from the opening bell
48-47 Jasudavicius
Control time wins three rounds on time rather than damage
The home-cage version, and entirely live

Moneyline

Erin Blanchfield
Not posted
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Not posted

No BetOnline line has been published for this bout yet and none is invented here. The model's fair prices from the 60-40 split are Blanchfield -150 and Jasudavicius +150. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the Edmonton card.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Blanchfield by decision is the analysis file's headline value at 30% — the base five-round path, and the side of her profile the market is likeliest to under-price if submission markets inflate on the Cortez and Andrade highlights. Jasudavicius by decision at 24% is the live home-dog counterpart. Both knockout buckets sit at 6% and should be faded: neither woman carries meaningful power, Blanchfield has no knockdowns on record at all, and the analysis leans slightly toward the fight going the distance at 54%.
Conviction
0
6/10

A clear lean on striking quality, submission finishing aimed at the phase the underdog lives in, the Fiorot divergence, ten years of age and the only championship-round tape on the sheet — capped at six by Jasudavicius's size, her elite control volume, a base nobody has ever tapped, and a Canadian crowd worth roughly four points on the line. Lean: Erin Blanchfield.

What backs the lean

  • 0.9 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, 5th of 32, pointed at the exact position Jasudavicius fights to reach.

  • 5.24 significant strikes a minute and 58% defence against 3.47 and 51% — the underdog has no standing fallback.

  • 78% takedown defence, 8th in the division, denying the control plan without needing to out-wrestle it.

  • The Fiorot divergence: twenty-five competitive minutes against a 74-second stoppage.

  • Ten years younger, with 38.5 significant strikes in an average fourth round against zero rounds of opposing data.

What limits it

  • 2.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 46% accuracy and 175 seconds of second-round control is a genuinely elite, repeatable lever.

  • Nobody has submitted Jasudavicius in eleven Octagon fights — the favourite's best path has to be earned.

  • Three inches of height and two of reach, with former-bantamweight strength behind them.

  • Rogers Place is worth roughly four points on the model line, most of it in the opening ten minutes.

  • Blanchfield starts slowly in roughly a fifth of her fights, and a stolen first round changes every card on this page.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty of a hundred simulations Erin Blanchfield's skill and the five-round arithmetic hold. Most often she stuffs enough entries at 78% to make it a striking fight she wins by nearly two significant strikes a minute, then pulls away in the two rounds her opponent has never fought — the 30% decision. The rest of the time the wrestler's own gameplan hands her the finish: a scramble, a back-take, and the Andrade or Cortez ending inside ten minutes.

In the other forty, Jasmine Jasudavicius makes Rogers Place matter. She is three inches bigger, takes 2.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes and controls 175 seconds of an average second round, and a home crowd buys the early minutes that decision cards are built from. Her power is not the threat at 0.10 knockdowns — her frame and her control time are. The problem is that those minutes are spent inside the most dangerous position in the division, against a woman with 0.9 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and four Octagon finishes to prove it.

The honest read: the data gives Blanchfield the striking quality, the submission ceiling, the Fiorot floor, ten years and the only championship-round tape on the sheet, and it gives Jasudavicius the size, the control volume, a base nobody has tapped and a building that will be screaming for her. Take the younger technician on skill and five-round math — and do not sleep on a Niagara Top Team grind when Edmonton is loud.

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