UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, August 15, 2026
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
Xfinity Mobile Arena
✅ Completed Event12 Fights🏆 2 Title Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; prelims start roughly two hours earlier. Subject to change.
ET
Eastern US/Canada (Local)
Main Card
5:00 PM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Main Card
2:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Main Card
10:00 PM
CET
Central Europe
Main Card
11:00 PM
AE
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Main Card
1:00 AM (Sun)
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Philadelphia: Two Belts, One Night — UFC 330 Storylines

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry — Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia — August 15, 2026

UFC 330 is Philadelphia's numbered-card showcase — and it carries two championships on Paramount+. In the main event, Islam Makhachev (28-1) defends the welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry (17-1). This is control-and-chain wrestling at championship pace: Makhachev's ~91% takedown defense and 1.13 submission attempts per 15 minutes against Garry's length, kickboxing, and sole career blemish — a loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov that our model treats as a blueprint. The co-main flips the script to grappling chess: champion Mackenzie Dern (16-5) vs. Gillian Robertson (17-8) for strawweight gold.

Our ensemble currently projects Makhachev near 74%, while Dern–Robertson sits closer to a coin-flip (~54/46). The supporting card is veteran-dense: Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics, Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore, Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus, Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes, and Joel Alvarez vs. Chidi Njokuani. Every bout below includes BetOnline odds, model probabilities, and a full breakdown.

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What is UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

UFC 330 is a numbered UFC event on August 15, 2026, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, headlined by two title fights on Paramount+. Islam Makhachev (28-1) defends the welterweight championship against Ian Machado Garry (17-1), while champion Mackenzie Dern (16-5) defends the strawweight title against Gillian Robertson (17-8). Main card starts at 5:00 PM ET.

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What is the matchup between Makhachev and Machado Garry?

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry is championship control against a long, dangerous kickboxer. Makhachev's ~91% takedown defense and 1.13 submission attempts per 15 minutes define the favorite case; Garry's lone loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov is the clearest tape of how elite wrestling can stall him. Our model currently leans Makhachev near 74%. Garry's path is early range management and cumulative damage before the clinch tax compounds. Every fight below includes BetOnline odds and a full breakdown.

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How to watch UFC 330 and what time does it start?

UFC 330 takes place Saturday, August 15, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia hosts the action.

Main Event — UFC Welterweight Championship

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Champion Islam Makhachev (28-1) defends against Ian Machado Garry (17-1) in a title bout with real stakes at the top of the welterweight division.

Co-Main — UFC Strawweight Championship

Dern vs. Robertson

Champion Mackenzie Dern (16-5) defends the strawweight title against Gillian Robertson (17-8) — the card's second title fight, and a pure grappler-versus-wrestler clash.

Undercard Spotlight

Barboza vs. Ribovics

Veteran Edson Barboza (24-14) meets Esteban Ribovics (15-3) in a lightweight striker's clash — one of the most fan-friendly style matchups on the Paramount+ main card.

Deepest Card of the Summer

A Veteran-Heavy Lineup

Neil Magny (31-14), Edson Barboza (24-14) and Gillian Robertson (17-8) each carry 20+ Octagon bouts into this card. At the other end, six fighters here have yet to clear five UFC appearances — including Lucas Fernando, who is making his debut.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main eventEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0

🏆 UFC Welterweight Championship
5 Rounds

Model estimate

74%VS26%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Ian Machado Garry

Ian Machado Garry

17-1-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
⭐ Co-MainEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Mackenzie Dern

Mackenzie Dern

16-5-0

🏆 UFC Strawweight Championship
5 Rounds

Model estimate

54%VS46%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Gillian Robertson

Gillian Robertson

17-8-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Edson Barboza

Edson Barboza

24-14-0

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

45%VS55%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Esteban Ribovics

Esteban Ribovics

15-3-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Mansur Abdul-Malik

9-1-1

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

70%VS30%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Dustin Stoltzfus

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-8-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Joel Alvarez

Joel Alvarez

23-4-0

Welterweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

58%VS42%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Chidi Njokuani

Chidi Njokuani

25-12-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Jalin Turner

Jalin Turner

15-9-0

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

60%VS40%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Kauê Fernandes

Kauê Fernandes

11-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Donte Johnson

Donte Johnson

8-0-0

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

56%VS44%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Eric McConico

Eric McConico

11-4-1

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Neil Magny

Neil Magny

31-14-0

Welterweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

60%VS40%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Ramiz Brahimaj

Ramiz Brahimaj

13-6-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Charles Johnson

Charles Johnson

19-9-0

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

57%VS43%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Jose Ochoa

Jose Ochoa

9-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Rafael Tobias

Rafael Tobias

14-2-0

Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

43%VS57%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Lucas Fernando

Lucas Fernando

13-3-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Vicente Luque

Vicente Luque

24-12-1

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

77%VS23%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Tresean Gore

Tresean Gore

7-4-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Jeremiah Wells

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1

Welterweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

36%VS64%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Myktybek Orolbai

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-1

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob B
Makhachev vs Garry🟢Islam Makhachev74%N/A—Ian Machado Garry26%N/A—
Dern vs Robertson🟢Mackenzie Dern54%N/A—Gillian Robertson46%N/A—
Barboza vs Ribovics🟢Edson Barboza45%N/A—Esteban Ribovics55%N/A—
Abdul-Malik vs Stoltzfus🟢Mansur Abdul-Malik70%N/A—Dustin Stoltzfus30%N/A—
Alvarez vs Njokuani🟢Joel Alvarez58%N/A—Chidi Njokuani42%N/A—
Turner vs Fernandes🟢Jalin Turner60%N/A—Kauê Fernandes40%N/A—
Johnson vs McConico🟡Donte Johnson56%N/A—Eric McConico44%N/A—
Magny vs Brahimaj🟢Neil Magny60%N/A—Ramiz Brahimaj40%N/A—
Johnson vs Ochoa🟡Charles Johnson57%N/A—Jose Ochoa43%N/A—
Luque vs Gore🟢Vicente Luque77%N/A—Tresean Gore23%N/A—
Wells vs Orolbai🟢Jeremiah Wells36%N/A—Myktybek Orolbai64%N/A—

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