Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore
Middleweight Bout • UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Saturday, August 15, 2026 • Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
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Vicente Luque
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Tresean Gore
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Vicente Luque
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Joel Alvarez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-14 | Kevin Holland | L | Submission (R2, 1:03) |
| 2024-12-07 | Themba Gorimbo | W | Submission (R1, 0:52) |
| 2024-03-30 | Joaquin Buckley | L | KO/TKO (R2, 3:17) |
| 2023-08-12 | Rafael dos Anjos | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tresean Gore
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Rodolfo Vieira | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-12 | Marco Tulio | L | KO/TKO (R2, 3:16) |
| 2024-11-09 | Antonio Trocoli | W | Submission (R1, 1:23) |
| 2024-06-24 | Josh Fremd | W | Submission (R2, 0:49) |
| 2023-07-08 | Cody Brundage | L | KO/TKO (R1, 3:50) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49 vs 10) and Grappling Composite (48 vs 70). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Vicente Luque Key Advantages
Luque out-produces Gore 5.02 to 2.76 SLpM, defends better (52% vs 41%), and — the decisive layer — carries genuine one-shot power (KD 0.69, 11 career knockouts) that the composite cannot capture. He walks in against a man who ranks dead last in the middleweight division (46/46) in strike absorption, behind a "Vulnerable," 0%-recovery chin already cracked by Cody Brundage and Marco Tulio. Every second spent standing points one direction; against that target, an early stoppage is the single most probable outcome on the board.
Gore's only realistic route is the takedown — and that is exactly where Luque is most lethal. His signature is the D'Arce/anaconda choke off the shot, the sequence that finished Tyron Woodley and Michael Chiesa in Round 1. His submission hunting front-loads into Rounds 1–2 (60% of subs land by R1), precisely when a takedown-first Gore is most exposed. A wrestle-first opponent diving into an elite guillotine artist is the worst kind of stylistic trap: the underdog's best strategy actively feeds the favorite's best finish.
Luque's strength-of-schedule tier is "Championship" — 8 wins over elite opposition (Woodley, Chiesa, RDA, Belal, Perry, Turner) — against a Gore résumé with zero elite wins and no ranked opponent ever beaten. And even conceding Gore the raw takedown numbers, Luque is the superior finishing grappler: 9 career submissions to 3, a black belt, and 78.3% ground-strike accuracy. Gore was just out-grappled over three full rounds by Rodolfo Vieira; Luque is a more dangerous mat technician than Vieira and a vastly better striker in between. Over three rounds his output grades "Steady" with a KD threat that never dims.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Luque's welterweight power does not fully translate to middleweight, Gore absorbs the early shots that would have stopped a smaller man, and the fight becomes the grappling grind he wants. A naturally bigger Gore out-muscling him to the mat and passing to top control — with Luque's 62% takedown defense only moderate, not elite — is the live path to a lost decision across three rounds against a fresher, physically larger man.
Luque's habit of planting and trading (SApM 5.25, three recent stoppage losses) meets an early Gore scramble; he over-commits chasing a submission or a knockout that isn't there and gets swept or controlled. A 33-year-old on a two-fight skid who looks a step slow — flat, hittable, and out-worked in a low-event decision he can't finish — is the exact version of this fight Gore needs to steal it.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the leg-kick game early (R1 leg 31.3%, tech rate 0.68), chop Gore's base, and use the half-inch reach edge to make Gore lead into counters he can't defend (41% striking defense). Then load the overhand and body-head combinations in the pocket against the division's worst strike-absorber and a 0%-recovery chin — the highest- percentage stoppage route. He does not need to rush; the openings will come.
Bait the shot and hunt the counter-choke. Gore's only path is the level change, so Luque should welcome it, framing the D'Arce/guillotine off every entry — his most efficient finish may arrive as a counter to Gore's own game plan. In the tie-up he can out-technique Gore's clinch wrestling with 51.9% clinch-TD accuracy and 77.5% clinch-strike accuracy, while staying disciplined against scrambles and never over-hunting a sub that lets Gore reverse the position.
🚀 Tresean Gore Key Advantages
Gore is the natural middleweight — an inch taller, walking around near 190, fighting the weight class he has occupied his entire UFC career. Luque is moving up from a lifetime at welterweight and will be the smaller, less physically imposing man in the clinch and on the mat. If the added mass blunts Luque's power, or if the size lets Gore win the physical grappling exchanges outright, the differential becomes a live factor that the tale of the tape's near-even numbers understate.
Grappling is the single phase Gore grades out ahead: takedown rate rank 15/46, submission rate rank 17/46, 75% clinch-TD accuracy, and 88% career takedown defense. Luque's own takedown defense (62%) is only moderate, not elite. If Gore can repeatedly get Luque down and — critically — keep him there while avoiding the counter-choke, he can bank rounds, drain the older man, and drag this toward the grind-out decision that is his only sustainable route to victory.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gore's 0% slow-start meets Luque's early KD threat (R1 KD 0.25) and championship-tested accuracy. He eats a clean leg-kick-to-overhand sequence in the first three minutes, his "Vulnerable" chin does what it did against Brundage and Tulio, and it is over before his grappling ever gets going. With a career knockdown-dealt of zero, he has no equalizing power to make Luque respect the pocket in return.
He shoots a takedown to escape the striking and runs his neck into the D'Arce off the entry — a Woodley/Chiesa replay — losing in Round 1 to the exact counter his game invites. Or he gets Luque down but can't hold him (control time historically collapses to 13–16 sec), Luque scrambles up, resets, and batters him standing in between — the worst of both worlds, ending in the lopsided decision Vieira already showed is on the table.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Every second standing favors Luque, so Gore must commit to the takedown from the opening exchange, using his size and 75% clinch-TD accuracy to drag the fight to the mat. The single most important instruction: shoot on the hips, never dive on a sloppy double that exposes the neck — Luque's entire submission game feeds on exactly that mistake. From there he must prioritize top control and passing, not sitting in guard where Luque's guillotine, triangle, and sweeps live.
Luque's KD threat and finishing urgency peak early (R1 KD 0.25, 60% of subs land by R1). Gore's route runs through weathering Round 1, reaching the grappling-heavy middle round, and turning every exchange into a heavy, slow clinch war that drains the 33-year-old. If he can avoid the chin-and-choke disasters and force deep water, his fresher tank (0% slow-start, output that builds late) and rank-15 takedown game make the narrow decision path live.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️The Size Story
The whole fight orbits one line on the tale of the tape: natural weight class. Luque has spent his entire 11-year, 23- fight UFC career at welterweight — this is a genuine move up to middleweight. Gore is a natural 185er who walks around near 190 and owns the raw frame and clinch strength on paper. But the counter-argument is just as real: Luque is a big, heavy-handed welterweight who has beaten the physical elite of a brutal division, and shedding the punishing 170 cut can leave him fresher, not weaker. The question is whether his welterweight power survives the 15-pound climb — and against a middleweight whose chin the database flags "Vulnerable" and who has been knocked out by Brundage and Tulio, it matters far less than the marketing suggests.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Strip away the noise and the numbers tell one lopsided story. Gore leads exactly two categories — takedown rate (1.83 vs 0.97 per 15) and submission attempts (0.91 vs 0.69) — and both are grappling metrics resting on soft, untested samples. In every striking and durability column he ranks at or near the bottom of his own division: rank 41 in volume, 44 in striking defense, 46th (dead last) in strikes absorbed (7.48 SApM), 45th in damage ratio (0.37, out-struck ~3:1), and a "Vulnerable" chin with 0% recovery. Luque out-strikes him 5.02 to 2.76, hits far harder (KD 0.69 to 0.00), defends better, and — the cruel part — is also the more accomplished submission finisher. Gore's only mathematical path is to make it a grappling match and keep it there.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Gore is caught in a strategic vise. He cannot survive on the feet — dead last in the division for strike absorption against a man with 11 knockouts — so he must grapple. But the takedown is precisely where Luque is most lethal, snapping the D'Arce that finished Woodley and Chiesa in Round 1. The one phase Gore needs to win is the one that most directly feeds Luque's finish. His most instructive data point is his last fight: a three-round decision loss to grappling specialist Rodolfo Vieira, who beat Gore in Gore's own phase. Luque is a comparable-or-better submission technician and a vastly superior striker — so the film says Gore's single winning phase is not even reliably his.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Vicente Luque by KO/TKO (34% probability) — elite, fight-ending striking funneled at the most vulnerable target in the matchup. His submission path (22%) reflects the counter-choke trap: Gore's takedown-first game plan runs his neck into a D'Arce specialist. His decision path (21%) captures the sims where a bigger, grappling-heavy Gore survives the early danger but still gets out-struck clearly over 15 minutes. Gore's realistic route is the grind-out decision (12%): clear the dangerous rounds, control an older, smaller Luque, and steal a low-event nod. His submission (8%) and near-floor KO/TKO (3%) round out a real but narrow underdog picture.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 56% | Fair: -127
GOOD VALUE
Model: 12% | Fair: +733
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Fair: -213
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Two independent finish roads – KO of a dead-last chin OR the counter-choke off Gore's own shot.
- • Underprices durability gap – Rank 46/46 absorption and 0% chin recovery drive the finish equity.
- • Weight-jump overreaction – The move to 185 is the market's story; the hierarchy didn't change.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Vicente Luque
Out-strikes a survived-but-outclassed Gore over 15 minutes
Cracks the division's most fragile chin in the pocket
D'Arce/guillotine off Gore's takedown attempts
💥Outcome Distribution - Tresean Gore
Career knockdown-dealt of zero — near-floor equity
His likeliest path: clear R1, control, grind a low nod
His one proven tool: catch a hittable Luque in a scramble
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tresean Gore
- • Level changes: Get it to the mat from the opening bell — every second standing is a loss.
- • Neck-safe entries: Shoot the hips, never the sloppy double that feeds the D'Arce.
- • Top control: Pass and smother; make it heavy and slow to drain the 33-year-old.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Vicente Luque
- • Leg kicks: Chop the base and force Gore to lead into counters he can't defend (41% StrDef).
- • Counter-choke: Welcome the shot; the D'Arce off the entry ended Woodley and Chiesa in R1.
- • Pocket power: Overhands at the division's worst chin — the highest-percentage stoppage.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear Luque lean, tempered by the weight-jump and age unknowns
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking: +2.26 SLpM, +11 pts defense, real power
- • Elite submission conversion (9 subs, D'Arce specialist)
- • Championship SoS (8 elite wins) vs Gore's zero
- • Attacks Gore's dead-last chin and 0% chin recovery
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Weight jump: power may not carry to 185
- • 33, on a two-fight skid, increasingly hittable
- • Gore's rank-15 takedown game raises his floor
🏁Executive Summary
The weight class changed, but the hierarchy did not. Vicente Luque steps up to 185 as the more accomplished, harder-hitting, better-finishing fighter, meeting a naturally bigger man whose durability and résumé are the two most exploitable things in the cage. Luque out-strikes Gore 5.02 to 2.76 SLpM behind championship-tested accuracy and genuine power (KD 0.69, 11 KOs), aimed at the division's dead-last strike-absorber and a "Vulnerable," 0%-recovery chin. Gore's single winning phase — grappling — was already beaten at this exact level by Rodolfo Vieira, and his primary route, the takedown, feeds directly into Luque's signature counter-choke, the D'Arce that finished Woodley and Chiesa in Round 1. His strategy is a trap he must walk into. Over three rounds there is no five-round fade for Luque to worry about; his "Steady" output and ever-present KD threat make him the favorite to finish and the favorite on the cards.
Prediction: Vicente Luque wins ~77% of simulations — most likely by KO/TKO (34%) cracking Gore's fragile chin, with the counter-submission (22%) and a clear decision (21%) close behind. Gore's ~23% lives almost entirely in the grind-out decision (12%): use his natural size, protect his neck on every entry, survive the perilous opening round, and steal a low-event nod. His path is real but narrow, and it demands a discipline his own tape — out-grappled by Vieira, knocked out by Brundage and Tulio — has not yet shown at this level. The size is Gore's one edge; everything that decides fights belongs to the veteran.