Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Mandel Nallo — Lightweight fighter

Mandel Nallo

“Mango”
14W4L
Finish-First Striker
VS
Nate Landwehr — Lightweight fighter

Nate Landwehr

“The Train”
18W8L
Pressure Warhorse

Zero career decisions against seven decision wins

LightweightRogers Place, Edmonton, AlbertaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Nallo's all-stoppage professional record contrasts with Landwehr's experience winning decisions. Nallo needs to turn early openings into damaging sequences; Landwehr can test him by surviving the initial burst and maintaining pressure. A long fight creates a different test, but does not guarantee Nallo fades.

Paths that change the fight

  • Mandel NalloEnd it before minute six. Four straight round-one finishes, both by knockout and by choke, against a man who concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns in an average opening round.
  • Nate LandwehrStill be there at 5:00 of the first. Everything after that is his — the 34-strike second round, the 9:52 average, the seven decision wins, and an opponent who has never once won a fight on the cards.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • Three inches of height and reach to Nallo at 155 — a weight Landwehr has never fought at in the Octagon.
  • 8.26 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy against 5.55 at 45%, and a 100% career finish rate.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Mandel Nallo

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote—

Nate Landwehr

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFCStats. Statistics reflect the sample and reporting dates available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

One number decides this fight before either man throws: Mandel Nallo has never won a decision, and never lost one either. All fourteen of his professional wins are finishes — eight knockouts, six submissions — and his last four wins before the Octagon all ended inside round one. Nate Landwehr has seven decision wins, an average fight time of 9:52 and ten UFC bouts of evidence that he can absorb a war and still be there at the horn. Nallo is three inches taller and three inches longer at a shared weight of 155 and lands 8.26 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy. Landwehr lands 5.55 at 45% and has been out-landed across his Octagon career — 556 significant strikes landed against 575 absorbed. The model reads it as a timer: Landwehr 56%, Nallo 44%.

Mandel Nallo
Attribute
Nate Landwehr
37
Age
38
6'0"+3" Nallo
Height
5'9"
75"+3" Nallo
Reach
72"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Not published
Team
Not published
Lightweight (155)
Home Division
Featherweight (145) — moving up
Finish-first volume striking, career sub hunter
Fighting Style
Pocket volume, dirty boxing, opportunistic chokes

Three inches of height and three inches of reach, and both of them belong to Nallo — at a weight that is his and not Landwehr's. The Train has spent his entire ten-bout Octagon career at featherweight; every one of his statistical record fight rows reads "Featherweight Bout." He is stepping up to 155 to meet a natural lightweight who is longer than almost anyone he has faced. Neither man has a published leg reach. The one physical column that runs the other way is age, and barely: Nallo is 37, Landwehr turns 38 in June, and between them they have absorbed a great deal of damage — Landwehr alone has been knocked down seven times in ten Octagon appearances, and Nallo's Octagon debut against Jai Herbert added two knockdowns absorbed of his own.

Venue Factor
Rogers Place will be loud for Nallo, and that helps a fighter whose entire brand is the first five minutes — four straight round-one finishes before the Octagon, and not a single decision, win or loss, in eighteen professional fights. But the home-crowd framing needs a caveat the analysis glosses: the statistical record lists Nallo's birthplace as North Vancouver, British Columbia. This is a Canadian fighting in Canada, not an Edmonton man fighting on his own street. And three rounds is exactly the distance that punishes him if the storm misses — fifteen minutes is Landwehr's home, 9:52 is his average, and he has seven decision wins to Nallo's none.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Mandel Nallo throwing a front kick in the Octagon

Mandel Nallo

Pro Record
14-4-0 (1 NC)
UFC Record
0-1 — first-round TKO loss to Jai Herbert (Apr 2026)
Streak
Coming off that Herbert defeat; four straight round-one finishes before it
Finish Rate
100% — all 14 wins finished (8 KO/TKO, 6 submission)
Avg Fight Time
3:29 across the single bout in the statistical record
Chin · Finishable — 3 of his 4 losses by knockoutSOS · Regional / Contender SeriesFinish-first volume striker (no DB archetype row)

A career with no middle. Fourteen wins, fourteen finishes, zero decisions — and four losses, three of them by knockout and one by submission. He has never heard a scorecard read in either direction. The Contender Series win over Samuel Silva in September 2025 (straight right into ground strikes, 3:29 of the first, one knockdown dealt) bought the contract; Jai Herbert took it apart seven months later — Nallo scored a knockdown of his own, absorbed two, and was stopped with punches at 2:05 of the opening round. That is his entire Octagon-adjacent ledger on the knockdown count: two dealt, two absorbed. The rate line of 8.26 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy still says when he is landing, opponents stop being upright. He absorbs 5.03 a minute in return. There is no version of a Mandel Nallo fight that is quiet.

Nate Landwehr in action in the Octagon

Nate Landwehr

Pro Record
18-8-0 per the event card · 18-7-0 in the statistical record and the analysis
UFC Record
5-5 across ten Octagon bouts since January 2020
Streak
0-2 — third-round stoppage losses to Morgan Charrière and Dooho Choi
Finish Rate
~61% (11 of 18) — 9 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 7 decision
Avg Fight Time
9:52
Chin · Durable but cracking — knocked down seven times in ten UFC boutsSOS · Established UFCPressure warhorse (DB style: Orthodox)

Six and a half years and ten Octagon fights of the same performance: walk forward, throw more than is sensible, get hit more than that, and be standing when it matters. He is 5-5 in the UFC and the five wins tell you the range — a first-round knockout of Jamall Emmers, a second-round rear-naked choke of Austin Lingo, a third-round anaconda on Ludovit Klein, and majority and unanimous decisions over David Onama and Darren Elkins. The five losses tell you the cost. Across every round the statistical record has on him he has landed 556 significant strikes and absorbed 575, and he has been knocked down seven times while scoring one. The last two nights are the warning: Dooho Choi finished him with crucifix elbows at 3:21 of the third at UFC 310, and Morgan Charrière dropped him with a left hook 27 seconds into the third in July 2025. He is still the man who wins ugly. He is also, at 38, a man whose fights now end in the third round.

Mandel Nallo
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Nate Landwehr
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Mandel Nallosignature weapons

Straight Right into Ground StrikesSamuel Silva, R1 3:29, Contender Series — the finish that earned the contract; 8 career KO/TKO wins in total
×1
Rear-Naked ChokeRobert Seres (R1 4:07) and Carlos Cañada (R1 1:40) — 6 career submission wins the UFC rate line of 0.00 completely hides
×2

Nate Landwehrsignature weapons

Pocket Volume34.0 significant strikes landed in an average second round, his best round by a distance — 9 career KO/TKO wins
×9
Opportunistic ChokesAustin Lingo by rear-naked choke (R2 4:11) and Ludovit Klein by anaconda (R3 2:22) — 0.7 submission attempts per 15 min, 16th of 78 featherweights
×2

Mandel Nallo

L
Jai Herbert
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (2:05)
UFC Fight Night — Apr 18, 2026
W
Samuel Silva
TKO — Straight right / ground

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (3:29)
Contender Series — Sep 2, 2025
W
Robert Seres
Submission — RNC

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (4:07)
Samourai MMA 11 — Aug 30, 2024
W
Deivison Ribeiro
TKO — Leg kick

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (4:19)
BTC 24: Apex — Jun 8, 2024
W
Carlos Cañada
Submission — RNC

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:40)
MMA Mexico 8 — Jul 29, 2023
Pattern

Five fights, five results inside the first round — four of them his, the fifth Jai Herbert's. Two rear-naked chokes and two stoppages by strikes on the regional and Contender Series circuit, then 2:05 of Octagon reality. The sequence is not ambiguous: Nallo either ends the fight in the first five minutes or the fight ends him in the first five minutes. What it does not contain, anywhere, is a template for winning minutes six through fifteen. He has never had to build one.

Nate Landwehr

L
Cub Swanson
KO/TKO — Punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (4:06)
UFC FN — Apr 11, 2026
L
Morgan Charrière
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (0:27)
UFC FN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
L
Dooho Choi
KO/TKO — Crucifix elbows

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (3:21)
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
W
Jamall Emmers
KO/TKO — Punch

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (4:43)
UFC FN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
L
Dan Ige
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Pattern

Two round-three stoppage losses in his last three fights, either side of a first-round knockout of Jamall Emmers. That is the whole Landwehr paradox in one row of results: he is still capable of ending a night early, and he is also, twice running now, the man who was still throwing in the third when someone finally connected. The Ige decision in between is the identity that matters most here — fifteen minutes, all three rounds, a loss on the cards rather than a stoppage. Nallo has never been in that fight.

Mandel Nallo

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Nate Landwehr

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are career method splits — Nallo's 8 knockouts and 6 submissions across fourteen wins, Landwehr's 9, 2 and 7 across eighteen. The round-distribution bars beside them are narrower on purpose: they count only the wins whose finishing round is documented in the fight logs. That is five for Nallo (Silva, Seres, Ribeiro, Cañada, La Terra) and every one of them ended in round one. It is five for Landwehr (Emmers R1, Lingo R2, Klein R3, Onama and Elkins on the cards) and they are spread across every outcome the sport offers. Nothing here is estimated to fill the gap; the regional rounds that are not published simply are not drawn.

Common Opponents

OpponentMandelNate
Morgan Charrière (cross-card thread)—(blueprint for Nallo)L· KO/TKO R3 0:27 (Jul 2025)
The man who most recently starched Landwehr fights Felipe Lima on the September Paris card, six weeks before Edmonton — a left hook and ground strikes 27 seconds into the third is the exact shape of Nallo's late-round upset
Jai Herbert (style proxy)L· TKO R1 2:05 (Apr 2026)—(blueprint for Landwehr)
A rangy UFC lightweight timed Nallo's entries and stopped him inside two minutes — the closest thing to a preview of what happens if the finish does not come first
Dooho Choi (style proxy)—(blueprint for Nallo)L· KO/TKO R3 3:21 (Dec 2024)
Crucifix elbows in the third. Landwehr's last two defeats both arrived after ten minutes of accumulation rather than one clean shot
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Mandelsmall sample
0
Nate

Nallo takes it on paper: 8.26 landed per minute at 58% accuracy against 5.55 at 45%, with a marginally better defence (54% to 51%) and less absorbed (5.03 to 5.96). The flag is the point — his figures come from a handful of fights, only one of which is in the statistical record, while Landwehr's cover ten Octagon appearances.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Mandelsmall sample
0
Nate

A wash, arrived at from opposite directions. Landwehr owns the only trusted numbers — 0.73 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 41%, 71% defence, 0.7 submission attempts. Nallo's UFC submission rate reads 0.00 on a tiny denominator while his career says six submission wins, and the analysis credits the career rather than the rate.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Mandelsmall sample
0
Nate

Three and a half points to Nallo. On measured technique this is close to even, which is why the fight is not decided here — it is decided by the clock.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · decision record · deep-round evidence

0
Mandel
0
Nate

The widest gap on the page, and the reason the lean flips. Landwehr's average fight lasts 9:52 and seven of his eighteen wins came on the cards. Nallo has zero career decisions of any kind and no round-by-round data beyond a single 3:29 bout — his fifteen-minute capability is not weak, it is simply unmeasured.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Mandel
0.0
Nate

Eight overall points to Landwehr, converted to a 56-44 model line after trimming a couple of points back toward Nallo for Canadian-crowd early violence and his length advantage at 155.

MetricMandelNate
Avg Fight Time3:29 (one DB bout)small sample9:52
Pace TierElite volume — 8.26 SLpMsmall sampleHigh volume — 5.55 SLpM (21st/78)
R3/R1 OutputLimited round samplesmall sample114% (21.5 vs 18.9 sig)
Slow Start %None — four straight R1 finishes before the UFCReal — 18.9 landed and 27.0 absorbed in an average R1
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Finish-First Volume Striker 44%56% Durable Pressure Warhorse

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 56-44 line is the site model's Landwehr lean of roughly 58 tempered downward by the analysis for Nallo's Canadian-crowd early violence and his three-inch length advantage at a weight Landwehr has never fought at.

Mandel NalloNate Landwehr

Lightweight

· 85 fighters
StatMandelMandel rankDiv avgNate rankNate
SLpM8.26—LW ~4.62 · FW ~4.73
21/85
5.55
Str Acc58%—LW ~48.6% · FW ~49.9%
49/85
45%
Str Def54%—LW ~54.1% · FW ~55.0%
46/85
51%
SApM5.03—LW ~4.17 · FW ~3.93
67/85
5.96
KD Avg4.31 — one bout—LW ~0.59 · FW ~1.46
56/85
0.15
Damage Ratio3.34 — one bout———0.93
TD/150.00—LW ~1.58 · FW ~1.89
49/85
0.73
TD Def100% — one bout—LW ~69.3% · FW ~67.8%
28/85
71%
TD Acc0% — no attempts—LW ~36.6% · FW ~40.6%
30/85
41%
Sub/150.00 UFC rate · 6 career subs—LW ~0.50 · FW ~0.56
16/85
0.70
Avg Fight Time3:29 — one bout———9:52
Statistical Verdict
Landwehr's ranks describe exactly the fighter the tape shows. He is 21st of 78 featherweights in output and 16th in submission attempts — genuinely productive — and 67th in strikes absorbed per minute, which is close to the worst in his division. Add 46th in striking defence and a damage ratio of 0.93 and you have a man who has been out-landed over his Octagon career and keeps winning anyway. Nallo shows no ranks at all: the only Nallo row in the statistical record covers a single 3:29 bout, and ranking a 100% takedown defence or a 4.31 knockdown average off one fight would be arithmetic, not evidence.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Mandel Nallo

Control Time per Round (sec)

Mandel Nallo

  • Available UFC sample: 1 fight, 1 observed rounds. This is the available sample, not a guarantee of complete career coverage. Shortened rounds are included; no values are assigned to rounds without observations.
  • The fight log is the only round evidence available, and it points one way: Silva 3:29, Seres 4:07, Ribeiro 4:19, Cañada 1:40, La Terra 2:09 — five documented wins, all inside round one.
  • He has never contested a third round in a bout the statistical record can see, and never in one that reached the judges in eighteen professional fights.

Nate Landwehr

  • Round two is his round and it is not close: 34.0 significant strikes landed at 48% accuracy across seven second rounds, against 18.9 in the first and 21.5 in the third.
  • The absorption line is the honest half of the same story. He takes 27.0 significant strikes in an average opening round while landing 18.9, 25.0 in the second and 21.8 in the third — 575 absorbed against 556 landed across every round in the dataset.
  • His targeting climbs as the fight goes on: 65.1% of his first-round strikes go to the head, 76.5% in the second, 80.6% in the third, while leg kicks fall from 18.0% to 8.5%.
  • Seven knockdowns absorbed across ten Octagon bouts against one scored — three of them in opening rounds. He gets hurt, and he keeps walking forward.
Critical Insight
Landwehr's curve is a second-round spike surrounded by two rounds where he is out-landed. That matters here in both directions. If Nallo survives five minutes without ending the fight, minute six to minute ten is the most dangerous stretch of Landwehr's night — thirty-four strikes and his highest accuracy. But the first round is the one where The Train concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns, and Nallo's entire professional identity is what happens in that window.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Mandel

Head
81%
Body
6%
Legs
13%

Nate

Head
74%
Body
14%
Legs
12%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

MandelNate
94%Distance76%
6%Clinch20%
0%Ground4%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMandel owns it

8.26 SLpM at 58% accuracy with three inches of reach, against 5.55 at 45% and 79% of Landwehr's offence thrown at distance

Pocket / ExchangesNate owns it

34.0 strikes in an average second round and ten Octagon bouts of absorbing chaos — Nallo takes 5.03 a minute and has been knocked out three times

ClinchNate owns it

21.4% of Landwehr's second-round offence lands in the clinch; Nallo has no published clinch output at all

GroundEven

Landwehr owns the only trusted numbers (0.73 TD/15, 0.7 Sub/15) but Nallo has six career submission wins the UFC rate of 0.00 completely hides

Path to Victory

Mandel Nallo

End it before minute six. Four straight round-one finishes, both by knockout and by choke, against a man who concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns in an average opening round.

Why they win
01
Length at a weight that is his

Three inches of height and three of reach, at 155, against a featherweight moving up. Landwehr's ten Octagon bouts were all contested at 145.

02
Volume and accuracy both

8.26 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy against 5.55 at 45%. On clean exchanges he lands more often and more accurately.

03
Two finishing doors, not one

Eight knockouts and six submissions across fourteen wins, and a 100% finish rate. Two of his documented round-one wins were rear-naked chokes.

04
Landwehr's first round is his worst

The Train lands 18.9 and absorbs 27.0 in an average opening round, with 0.30 knockdowns conceded. That is precisely where Nallo lives.

05
The late-break precedent is real

Charrière stopped Landwehr 27 seconds into the third and Choi finished him at 3:21 of the third. If the volume keeps coming, a third-round finish is not a fantasy.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Fight at 75 inches

    Jab, straight right, kicks from range. Every inch he gives up voluntarily is an inch of Landwehr's dirty boxing he did not have to face.

  2. 2
    Hunt the first round without burning out

    The brand is round one and the data supports it — Landwehr concedes 27.0 strikes and 0.30 knockdowns there. Land clean, do not chase one haymaker into a counter.

  3. 3
    Take the back if the scramble opens

    Two of his five documented wins are first-round rear-naked chokes. The published UFC submission rate of 0.00 is a denominator artefact, not a limitation.

  4. 4
    Frame and circle out of the clinch

    21.4% of Landwehr's second-round offence lands in the clinch. Chest-to-chest is where a three-inch reach advantage stops existing.

  5. 5
    If it reaches the third, keep throwing

    Both of Landwehr's last two fights ended in the third round, against him. Volume late is the only route to a career-first decision — and it is also the route to a late finish.

Path to Victory

Nate Landwehr

Still be there at 5:00 of the first. Everything after that is his — the 34-strike second round, the 9:52 average, the seven decision wins, and an opponent who has never once won a fight on the cards.

Why they win
01
Seven decision wins against zero

The single largest structural fact on the page. Landwehr can win this fight without ever hurting Nallo; Nallo has no career evidence that he can do the same.

02
Ten Octagon bouts against one

5-5 in the UFC with wins over Elkins, Onama, Klein, Lingo and Emmers. Nallo's only Octagon night lasted 2:05.

03
The second-round spike

34.0 significant strikes landed at 48% accuracy in an average second round — his best five minutes arrive exactly when Nallo's plan has already failed.

04
The only wrestling in the fight

0.73 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 41% and 71% defence, into an opponent with zero career takedown attempts on record.

05
He has been here before

9:52 average fight time and a career built on absorbing more than he lands — 575 to 556 — and winning anyway. Chaos is his native environment.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Survive the first five minutes

    Nothing else on this list matters until that is done. Respect the reach, do not stand at range for free, and accept losing round one on the cards.

  2. 2
    Make it ugly at chest range

    Clinch, dirty box, level change. His second round already lands 21.4% of its offence in the clinch — that is the phase where Nallo's frame is neutralised.

  3. 3
    Bank the second round

    34.0 significant strikes at 48% accuracy is his single best five minutes in the Octagon and it arrives at exactly the moment a round-one specialist runs out of plan.

  4. 4
    Threaten the choke in scrambles

    0.7 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, 16th of 78 featherweights, with a rear-naked choke and an anaconda already on his UFC record.

  5. 5
    Do not pride-trade in the third

    Charrière at 0:27 and Choi at 3:21 are the same lesson twice. If the cards are already his, the last five minutes are for managing, not for winning.

Danger Zone

How Mandel Nallo loses

  • Herbert 2.0 — he over-commits early, a shorter man times the entry, and the night ends before the crowd has settled, exactly as it did at 2:05 in April.

  • The finish misses, the second round arrives, and he is standing in front of 34 significant strikes with no career template for winning a round on points.

  • Landwehr drags him to the fence, dirty-boxes the length out of the fight, and the 75-inch reach becomes irrelevant for ten of the fifteen minutes.

Danger Zone

How Nate Landwehr loses

  • He eats the length-and-accuracy tax for three minutes at a weight he has never fought at, and 8.26 strikes a minute finds the chin that Charrière and Choi already cracked.

  • A scramble goes wrong and six career submission wins become seven — the rear-naked choke that finished Seres and Cañada does not care about his 71% takedown defence.

  • He survives the storm, the volume keeps arriving, and the third round repeats itself for the third fight running.

The fight's central axis

Zero Against Seven

Mandel Nallo has fought eighteen professional times and never once heard a scorecard read — fourteen wins, all finishes; four losses, all finishes. Nate Landwehr has seven decision wins and an average fight time of 9:52. One of these men needs the fight to end early. The other one does not need it to end at all.

0 vs 7
career decision wins — Nallo against Landwehr
Where Landwehr lives

The Second-Round Spike

Across seven second rounds in the Octagon, Landwehr lands 34.0 significant strikes at 48% accuracy — nearly double his first-round output of 18.9 and his most accurate round by five points. Minutes five to ten are his best five minutes, and they arrive precisely when a round-one finisher's plan has already failed.

34.0
Landwehr significant strikes in an average second round
The absorption ledger

He Is Out-Landed and Wins Anyway

Across every round the statistical record holds on him, Landwehr has landed 556 significant strikes and absorbed 575, and been knocked down seven times while scoring one. He ranks 67th of 78 featherweights in strikes absorbed per minute. This is not a defensive fighter who occasionally gets hit — it is a fighter whose method is getting hit.

0.93
Landwehr damage ratio (5.55 SLpM / 5.96 SApM)
The honest caveat

One Fight in the statistical record

Everything shown for Nallo comes from the editorial assessment's UFCStats pass. The statistical record holds a single 3:29 Contender Series bout for him, and his actual Octagon debut — the first-round TKO loss to Jai Herbert in April 2026 — post-dates the snapshot. His available UFC round is now shown separately from his DWCS appearance.

Why the dog stays live late

The Third Round Has Turned

Landwehr's last two fights ended with him being stopped in the third — Morgan Charrière at 0:27 and Dooho Choi at 3:21. At 38, the round that used to be his proof of durability is now where his nights end. Nallo cannot win a decision, but he does not necessarily have to finish early.

The Five-Round Clock

Mandel Nallo danger windowNate Landwehr danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Nallo's entire brand

Four straight round-one finishes before the Octagon, both by knockout and by choke. Landwehr concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns in an average opening round — the widest window Nallo will ever get. It cuts both ways: Herbert stopped him at 2:05.

Critical Insight
This fight is a countdown, not a contest. Nallo's win equity is front-loaded into a first round where Landwehr is genuinely vulnerable; Landwehr's is back-loaded into a second round he owns outright and a decision Nallo has never won. The one asymmetry that keeps the underdog alive past ten minutes is Landwehr's own recent history: the third round stopped being his friend two fights ago.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Mandel Nallo has never won a decision and never lost one — all eighteen of his professional fights ended inside the distance. Nate Landwehr has seven decision wins and averages 9:52 a fight. That is the fight in one sentence.

2

Landwehr's second round is his best (34.0 significant strikes at 48%) and his first is his worst (18.9 landed, 27.0 absorbed, 0.30 knockdowns conceded). Nallo's four wins before the Octagon all ended inside round one.

3

Model: Landwehr 56% / Nallo 44%, conviction 5/10 — a modest lean to the decision engine, capped by Nallo's length at 155, his 100% finish rate, and Landwehr's two straight third-round stoppage losses.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Landwehr Decision — 30%Landwehr KO/TKO — 18%Landwehr Submission — 8%Nallo KO/TKO — 22%Nallo Submission — 14%Nallo Decision — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Mandel Nallo gold · Nate Landwehr orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The decision fork

Seven decision wins against zero. In every branch where the fight reaches the judges, Landwehr's decision bucket (30 of 100) is the largest single outcome on the page — and Nallo's is only 8, because he has no career evidence of winning that fight.

Round-one variance

Nallo's knockout and submission buckets together are worth 36 win-shares, almost all of them concentrated in the first five minutes, against an opponent who concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns in an average opening round.

Weight-class travel

All ten of Landwehr's Octagon bouts were contested at featherweight. Whether his power and his durability arrive intact at 155, against a man three inches longer, is genuinely unknown and is priced as uncertainty on both sides.

Landwehr's third-round problem

Charrière at 0:27 and Choi at 3:21 — two consecutive third-round stoppage defeats at 38. This is why Nallo's inside-the-distance equity does not vanish after ten minutes and why conviction is held at five.

Sample asymmetry

Ten Octagon bouts, 23 rounds of statistical record evidence and 556 tracked significant strikes for Landwehr; a short DWCS appearance and one UFC round for Nallo. Every Nallo figure on this page is a projection from a handful of fights.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Decision Engine

Landwehr weathers the opening five minutes, doubles his output in the second, clinches and dirty-boxes through the third, and wins a card that was never in doubt after minute six. The largest single bucket on the page and the shape of the Onama and Elkins wins.

Scripted outcomes for Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Mandel Nallo win probability
0%
22%
8%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • His primary path and the second-largest bucket on the page. Eight career knockouts, 8.26 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy, and an opponent who has been knocked down seven times in ten Octagon appearances and concedes 0.30 knockdowns in an average first round.

  • Eight points, and deliberately low. He has never won a decision in eighteen professional fights and has no round-by-round data at all beyond a single 3:29 bout — this bucket is the fight where he clearly out-lands every minute and the judges have no choice.

  • Fourteen points, more than his decision path. The published UFC submission rate of 0.00 reflects one short fight, not an absence of grappling: six of his fourteen career wins are submissions, two of them first-round rear-naked chokes.

Nate Landwehr win probability
0%
18%
30%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Nine career knockouts and a first-round finish of Jamall Emmers, but the mechanism is accumulation rather than one shot — his knockdown average is 0.15, 56th of 78 featherweights. Against a man who absorbs 5.03 a minute, volume finishes are a genuine path.

  • His largest bucket and the structural chalk of this fight. Seven career decision wins, a 9:52 average, and an opponent who has never in eighteen professional fights had to win a round on points.

  • Eight points, and better founded than it looks. 0.7 submission attempts per fifteen minutes ranks 16th of 78 featherweights, with a rear-naked choke of Austin Lingo and an anaconda on Ludovit Klein already on his UFC record.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Mandel
R2
Nate
R3
Nate
29-28 Landwehr
Nallo takes the first, the second-round spike and third-round pressure take the rest
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
30-27 Landwehr
The storm never lands and the volume tax runs all fifteen minutes
Common if Nallo's first round is spent chasing
29-28 Nallo
Length and accuracy win the standing minutes for a career-first decision
His 8-point decision bucket — the rarest outcome on the page

Model and price

Mandel Nallo

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Nate Landwehr

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Mandel Nallo

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Nate Landwehr

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Nallo inside the distance is where the model disagrees most sharply with a market that will see a 5-5 UFC veteran against a man who lost his debut in 2:05. His knockout and submission buckets together are 36 of his 44 win-shares, and Landwehr's first round — 18.9 landed, 27.0 absorbed, 0.30 knockdowns conceded — is the weakest five minutes in his profile. On the other side, Landwehr by decision is the structural chalk: 30 of 100, against an opponent who has never won one.

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real but modest lean to the man who can win without finishing. Held at five out of ten because Nallo is longer, more accurate and finishes everyone he beats, and because Landwehr's last two fights both ended with him being stopped in the third. Lean: Nate Landwehr.

What backs the lean

  • Seven career decision wins and a 9:52 average fight time against an opponent with zero decisions of any kind.

  • Ten Octagon bouts and 23 rounds of statistical record evidence against a short DWCS appearance and one UFC round.

  • A second round that averages 34.0 significant strikes at 48% accuracy — his best five minutes arrive when Nallo's plan has already failed.

  • The only takedown offence in the fight (0.73 per fifteen minutes at 41%) against an opponent with no career attempts on record.

What limits it

  • Three inches of height and reach to Nallo at 155 — a weight Landwehr has never fought at in the Octagon.

  • 8.26 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy against 5.55 at 45%, and a 100% career finish rate.

  • Landwehr has been out-landed across his UFC career (556 to 575) and knocked down seven times while scoring one.

  • Two consecutive third-round stoppage defeats at 38 — Charrière at 0:27, Choi at 3:21 — keep the underdog live even past ten minutes.

Final Assessment

In roughly 56 of 100 simulations Nate Landwehr survives the opening five minutes and the fight becomes the one he has been winning for six years — ugly, close, decided on the cards 30 times out of 100, finished in the pocket chaos he invites 18 times, and snatched off a scramble choke 8 times. He does not need to hurt Mandel Nallo to beat him. That is the whole lean.

In the other 44, the timer runs the other way. Nallo is three inches longer at a weight Landwehr has never made in the Octagon, lands 8.26 significant strikes a minute at 58% accuracy, and has ended all fourteen of his professional wins — eight by strikes, six by choke. Landwehr's average opening round concedes 27.0 significant strikes and 0.30 knockdowns, and he has been knocked down seven times in ten Octagon appearances. Twenty-two knockout win-shares and fourteen submission win-shares are not a puncher's chance; they are most of a fight.

The honest read: take The Train narrowly, and understand exactly what you are betting on — not that he is better, but that he can win a fight Nallo has never in eighteen professional bouts proved he knows how to win. And do not fade Mango early. Morgan Charrière needed 27 seconds of a third round to end this same man fourteen months ago.

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