Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara – UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Jamey-Lyn Horth

9W3L

Pressure Kickboxer

Katlyn Cerminara

18W6L

Volume Range Technician

Forty-eight percent accuracy against thirty-one months away

Women's FlyweightRogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, CanadaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Horth's better recorded accuracy and lower strike absorption support a plan based on cleaner exchanges rather than simply throwing more. Cerminara needs to control distance and prevent Horth from setting the rhythm; Horth must still create openings against an opponent with substantial decision experience.

Paths that change the fight

Jamey-Lyn HorthFifteen minutes of being the cleaner fighter. She does not need a finish — she needs to close the two inches, bank the clinch and the body work, and out-land a 35%-accuracy opponent by a margin no judge can misread.
Katlyn CerminaraThree ambiguous rounds at 68 inches. If she never has to fight off the fence and the timing came back intact, fifteen decision wins say she knows exactly which touches score.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10

The résumé is not close — a title challenge and wins over Maia ×2, Ribas, Calvillo, Araújo, Calderwood and Antonina Shevchenko; Horth has faced nobody of that tier.
Fifteen decision wins, the UFC record for a female fighter. Nobody is better at converting ambiguous minutes.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 67%
Fair decimal odds: 1.49

Reference quote—

Katlyn Cerminara

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 33%
Fair decimal odds: 3.03

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFC.com. Statistics reflect the sample and reporting dates available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A genuine collision of identities. Jamey-Lyn Horth is a 36-year-old Canadian kickboxer out of The Sound Martial Arts in Vancouver who carries the cleanest damage differential in this matchup — 3.80 significant strikes landed per minute at 48% accuracy while absorbing only 2.64, which works out to +15.9 significant strikes per fifteen minutes against her opposition. Katlyn Cerminara is a former UFC flyweight title challenger who holds the UFC record for most decision wins by any woman (15) and owns victories over Jennifer Maia twice, Amanda Ribas, Cynthia Calvillo, Viviane Araújo and Joanne Calderwood — and who is 31 months removed from competition, returning at 37 after childbirth, unranked and on a two-fight losing skid. The decisive structure is that Cerminara has no finishing threat whatsoever: zero finishes in 17 UFC fights, a knockdown average of 0.06, and the worst striking accuracy in the division at 35% (32nd of 32). Her only path is a decision she must win on Canadian soil, cold, at 37, against an opponent whose takedown offense (0.98 per fifteen minutes at a verified 43% clip) points straight at her 50% takedown defense.

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Attribute

Katlyn Cerminara

Age

5'7"

Height

5'9"

66"

Reach

+2" Cerminara68"

42"

Leg Reach

42"

Not listed

Stance

Not listed

The Sound Martial Arts, Vancouver

Team

Renzo Gracie Academy / Renzo Gracie Combat Team

Apr 29, 2023

Octagon Debut

Jul 13, 2016

Kickboxer — pressure, clinch, opportunistic wrestling

Fighting Style

Technical striker — counter striker, volume at range

Length to Cerminara, everything kinetic to Horth. Cerminara is two inches taller and two inches longer — 5'9" and 68" against 5'7" and 66" — and both women carry an identical 42" leg reach, so the low-kick geometry is a genuine wash. That +2"/+2" is the only physical column Cerminara wins. She is fifteen months older and, far more importantly, she has spent 31 months out of the cage while Horth has fought twice in the last ten months. Cerminara's frame has also historically been a stretch at 125: she missed weight at 127.5 lb for the Manon Fiorot bout at UFC 280, a flag worth carrying into a first cut back after childbirth. Horth's frame is comfortably flyweight — her last UFC.com weigh-in figure is 126 lb, Cerminara's 125 lb. Neither fighter has a published stance; the field is blank on UFC.com and in the available statistical sources.

Venue Factor
The two inches matter far less here than they usually would, because Cerminara does not convert length into damage — she converts it into volume. She fights 87% of her significant strikes at distance and lands only 35% of them. Horth fights at 78% distance and 21% clinch and lands 48% overall, but her clinch numbers are the tell: across her UFC tape she has landed 30 of 30 clinch strikes against Hailey Cowan, 7 of 7 against Tereza Bleda and 13 of 19 against Veronica Hardy. Every inch Cerminara gives up when Horth closes is an inch she cannot get back, because her takedown defense of 50% offers no exit from the phase she least wants to be in. Add a loud Rogers Place crowd behind the Canadian and the pace commitment points the same way — worth a point or two in this model, and no more.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Pro Record

9-3-0

UFC Record

4-3 across seven bouts since April 2023

Streak

W-L — TKO'd Tereza Bleda, then lost a disputed decision to JJ Aldrich

Finish Rate

67% (6 of 9 wins) — one of them in the UFC

Avg Fight Time

13:09

Chin · IronSOS · Mid-tier ladderPressure kickboxer

The ascending grinder. Horth arrived in the UFC at 33 on the back of a 5-0 regional run in which every single win was a finish — three TKOs and two rear-naked chokes. Her Octagon career has been the opposite: six of seven have gone to the cards, and her record reads 4-3 largely because two of those three losses were split or heavily disputed. Her one UFC finish — Tereza Bleda, TKO at 2:05 of Round 1 in December 2025 — was also her single most efficient performance on record, 16 of 22 (72%) in just over two minutes. She has never been finished in twelve professional fights, has never been submitted, and holds three separate win paths: she can bank rounds, she can stop you, and she can choke you. She is trending upward, not sideways.

Katlyn Cerminara

Pro Record

18-6-0

UFC Record

11-6 across seventeen bouts since July 2016

Streak

L-L — Fiorot and Barber, then 31 months away

Finish Rate

17% (3 of 18 wins) — zero in seventeen UFC fights

Avg Fight Time

14:10

Chin · IronSOS · EliteTechnical Striker — Counter Striker

The returning institution. Cerminara entered the UFC 7-0 in July 2016, went 11-6 across eight years, assembled a four-fight win streak in 2021-22 over Calvillo, Araújo, Maia and Ribas, challenged for the flyweight title at UFC 247 and peaked as the division's #1 contender. Then came consecutive decision losses to Manon Fiorot at UFC 280 and Maycee Barber at UFC 299 — and then she stepped away, gave birth to a daughter and vanished from the rankings. She returns at 37 having not competed since March 9, 2024, greeting the booking with two words: "Mom's back." Fifteen of her eighteen wins are scorecards, the UFC record for a female fighter. All three of her career finishes are pre-UFC and a decade old; she has not stopped anyone since March 2016.

Jamey-Lyn Horth

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Katlyn Cerminara

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Jamey-Lyn Horthsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeCorinne Laframboise (R3 2:57, TKO 48, May 2019) and Mayra Cantuaria (R3 1:50, LFA 120, Dec 2021) — both regional, both in the third

×2

Accumulative TKO PressureBleda (R1 2:05, 16 of 22), Masson-Wong (R3 2:31), Ricker (R2 4:49), Dixon (R2 2:26) — no UFC knockdowns, damage rather than one-shot power

×4

Katlyn Cerminarasignature weapons

Knee KOBrigitte Narcisse (R3 0:38, WSOF 13, Sep 2014) and Stephanie Bragayrac (R1 0:45, CFFC 57, Mar 2016) — both pre-UFC

×2

ArmbarMelinda Fábián, R1 4:33, May 2015 — her only career submission, and part of a finishing résumé that stopped in March 2016

×1

Jamey-Lyn Horth

JJ Aldrich

Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC Fight Night 273, Winnipeg — Apr 18, 2026

Tereza Bleda

KO/TKO — Punches at distance

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:05)

UFC FN: Royval vs. Kape — Dec 13, 2025

Vanessa Demopoulos

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley — Jun 14, 2025

Miranda Maverick

Decision — Unanimous (28-29 ×3)

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Covington vs. Buckley — Dec 14, 2024

Ivana Petrovic

Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Albazi — Nov 2, 2024

Pattern

Three and two, but the tape reads better than the ledger. The Aldrich decision is the outlier of her career: Horth outlanded her 70 to 50 in significant strikes and outstruck her in all three rounds, media scorecards overwhelmingly favoured Horth, and she had closed as roughly a −15000 favourite at the bell. Three judges saw Aldrich's counters. Strip that scorecard and she walks into Edmonton on a three-fight run. Against Bleda she was surgical — 16 of 22 (72%) in 125 seconds. Against Demopoulos she produced her career volume peak, 101 significant strikes across fifteen minutes at roughly 60% (35/57, 33/60, 33/50). The one genuinely bad night is Maverick, who held her to 15 significant strikes in 15 minutes at 21-28% accuracy — a wrestler-grappler who took away her range and her rhythm.

Katlyn Cerminara

Maycee Barber

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 — Mar 9, 2024

Manon Fiorot

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev — Oct 22, 2022 (missed weight, 127.5 lb)

Amanda Ribas

Decision — Split

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC on ESPN 36 — May 14, 2022 (Fight of the Night)

Jennifer Maia

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC on ESPN 32 — Jan 15, 2022

Viviane Araújo

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC 262 — May 15, 2021

Pattern

Five straight decisions, and a calendar that is the real story. Her last five fights span May 2021 to March 2024, and the fight after them is October 2026 — a 31-month gap on the end of a two-fight losing streak, at 37, following childbirth. The performance data inside those fights is instructive. Against Fiorot she threw a staggering 286 significant strikes and landed 76 (27%) — pure volume with no conversion. Against Ribas she took a split decision while going 19 of 99 (19%) in Round 3. Against Barber, in what is now a two-and-a-half-year-old data point, she was 0 for 5 on takedowns in Round 1 and gave up 1:50 of control — but also posted her most efficient round in years, 22 of 32 (68%) including 16 of 17 in the clinch. That clinch round is the genuinely under-priced counter to the walk-her-down thesis; the Renzo Gracie base is not decorative.

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Katlyn Cerminara

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Zero finishes in 17 UFC fights is the structural fork of this bout. Cerminara does not merely prefer decisions — she is functionally incapable of ending a fight at UFC level. Her knockdown average is 0.06 and she has scored two knockdowns in her entire UFC career. That means she must win fifteen minutes of scorecards, in Canada, against a Canadian, on 31 months of rust, while defending takedowns at 50%. Horth's finishes cluster late — R1 ×1, R2 ×2, R3 ×3, five of six in the back half — and she has never been finished in twelve professional fights. Both donuts are career-scoped, and both arithmetic checks close: 4 + 2 + 3 = 9 wins for Horth, 2 + 1 + 15 = 18 for Cerminara.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Jamey-Lyn	Katlyn
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Mid-tier ladder — Beat Demopoulos, Bleda and Petrovic; lost to Hardy (split), Maverick and Aldrich — all three by decision	Elite — Title challenge vs. Valentina Shevchenko; wins over Maia ×2, Ribas, Calvillo, Araújo, Calderwood, A. Shevchenko, Aldana, Davis and Murphy
UFC sample	4-3 across seven bouts since April 2023	11-6 across seventeen bouts since July 2016
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 2 veteran tier	5 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (15 vs 7 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	JJ Aldrich, Tereza Bleda, Vanessa Demopoulos	Maycee Barber, Manon Fiorot, Amanda Ribas

Miranda Maverick (style proxy): They have never fought and share zero common opponents, so the tape has to be read through proxies. Maverick is the one template that beat Horth: a wrestler-grappler who took away her range and held her to 15 significant strikes in fifteen minutes at 21-28% accuracy.
Maycee Barber (style proxy): The last time Cerminara was seen in a cage. A forward-pressure fighter out-worked her, went 0 for 5 defending nothing in the wrestling exchanges and drew 1:50 of control — but forced Cerminara into the clinch, where she posted 22 of 32 (68%) including 16 of 17.

0.0

Jamey-Lyn

Katlyn

A 9.5-point overall gap, driven almost entirely by grappling and efficiency, partially offset by Cerminara's superior proven engine and vastly superior competition history. It maps cleanly onto Horth 67 / Cerminara 33.

Metric	Jamey-Lyn	Katlyn
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:09	14:10
Pace Tier	Modest volume — 3.80 SLpM (#18 of 32)	Division-average volume — 4.58 SLpM (#12 of 32)
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	125% (20.4 vs 16.3 sig)	130% (26.5 vs 19.9 sig) — 'Strong Finisher'
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	None — R1 is her most accurate round (58%)	Real — R1 is her worst (33% acc, −1.7 differential)
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure Kickboxer 67%33% Technical Counter Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 67-33 line comes from the composite stack — a 9.5-point overall gap — and from the two numbers that carry it: a strike differential of +15.9 per fifteen minutes against +0.6, and 43% takedown offense running into 50% takedown defence. The gap is not wider because Cerminara accumulated her numbers against the division's elite and Horth accumulated hers against its middle.

Jamey-Lyn HorthKatlyn Cerminara

Women's Flyweight

· 32 fighters

Stat	Jamey-Lyn	Jamey-Lyn rank	Div avg	Katlyn rank	Katlyn
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.80	18/32	~4.66	12/32	4.58
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	48%	13/32	~46%	32/32	35%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	64%	3/32elite	~55.5%	7/32	62%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.64	9/32	~4.08	23/32	4.48
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.00	—	~0.32	—	0.06
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.44	—	~1.26	—	1.17
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.98	22/32	~1.40	30/32	0.31
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	81%	6/32elite	~66%	27/32	50%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.16	—	~0.46	19/32	0.31
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:09	—	—	—	14:10

Statistical Verdict
Horth wins eleven of the columns that describe what happens inside a round — accuracy, absorption, defence, damage ratio, takedown offense, takedown defence, durability and the raw strike differential. Cerminara wins five columns, but they are heavyweight ones: size, volume, experience, strength of schedule, and the single most decision-proven résumé in the history of the women's division. The tie-breaker is that Cerminara's entire advantage set is historical and Horth's is current. Horth wins the fight that is being contested in October 2026; Cerminara wins the fight that was being contested in 2022.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Her opponents land 9.0, 13.6 and 14.2 on her per round while she lands 16.3, 16.0 and 20.4 — differentials of +7.3, +2.4 and +6.2, or +15.9 significant strikes per fifteen minutes.
Round 1 is her sharpest and stingiest round: 58% accuracy, and opponents connect on only 30.7% of what they throw at her.
Round 3 is her highest-output round (20.4 landed) and she is still absorbing only 14.2 while producing it. Control time climbs from 27 to 64 to 65 seconds.
The offensive table covers six UFC bouts — the April 2026 Aldrich fight postdates the scrape, and it is the fight her current 48% accuracy figure absorbed.

Katlyn Cerminara

Seventeen UFC fights of evidence, and a net differential of just +0.6 significant strikes per fifteen minutes: −1.7 in Round 1, +0.9 in Round 2, +1.4 in Round 3.
Round 3 is simultaneously her highest-output round (26.5 landed) and her most porous (25.1 absorbed) — she empties the tank and stops managing the fight.
Control time collapses across the fight: 34 seconds offensively in Round 1 down to 12 in Round 3, while her opponents' control runs 47, 69 and 26.
Her accuracy never rises above 36.9% in any round, which is the whole argument: the volume is real, the conversion is not.

Critical Insight
The per-round differentials are the most decisive numbers in this document. Horth is +7.3, +2.4 and +6.2 across the three rounds — +15.9 per fifteen minutes. Cerminara, across seventeen UFC fights, is +0.6. Cerminara's Round 3 is her best output round and her worst defensive round at the same time, with control collapsing to 12 seconds offensively and 26 defensively. If this reaches the last five minutes of a three-rounder, the ledger says Horth is the one still banking a positive column. The honest caveat, stated plainly: Cerminara accumulated hers against the division's elite; Horth accumulated hers against its middle. That caveat is the reason this is 67/33 and not 80/20.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Jamey-Lyn

53%

33%

14%

Head

53%

Body

33%

Legs

14%

Katlyn

62%

24%

14%

Head

62%

Body

24%

Legs

14%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Jamey-LynKatlyn

78%Distance87%

21%Clinch8%

1%Ground5%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKatlyn owns it

87% of Cerminara's strikes land at distance behind +2" of reach and 4.58 SLpM — into a 64% striking defence

Pocket / ExchangesJamey-Lyn owns it

48% accuracy and 2.64 absorbed against 35% accuracy (#32 of 32) and 4.48 absorbed

ClinchJamey-Lyn owns it

21% of Horth's career output at near-perfect conversion (30/30 Cowan, 7/7 Bleda) against 8% for Cerminara — discounted for her 16-of-17 Barber round

GroundJamey-Lyn owns it

43% takedown offense into 50% defence, and 81% defence into 16% offense — but no submission threat against 24 fights without a tap

Path to Victory

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Fifteen minutes of being the cleaner fighter. She does not need a finish — she needs to close the two inches, bank the clinch and the body work, and out-land a 35%-accuracy opponent by a margin no judge can misread.

Why they win

The efficiency chasm

48% accuracy against 35% — and Cerminara's mark is the worst among 32 rate-carrying flyweights in the division. Horth lands nearly half of what she throws into a woman who lands a third.

Absorption and defence

SApM 2.64 (#9) and StrDef 64% (#3) against SApM 4.48 (#23). Horth is hard to hit and does not pay a tax to be dangerous; Cerminara pays one constantly.

The takedown mismatch

43% offense into 50% defence, versus 16% offense into 81% defence. She can take Cerminara down and cannot be taken down herself — and Cerminara has been grounded roughly 1.6 times per fight across seventeen UFC bouts.

Clinch supremacy

21% of her career strikes come in the clinch at near-perfect conversion — 30 of 30 against Cowan, 7 of 7 against Bleda. Cerminara does 8% of her work there and lands 10 of 64 clinch takedowns.

She faces no finishing threat

Zero finishes in 17 UFC fights and a knockdown average of 0.06. Horth can pressure, close and take risks she could not take against a puncher, because the worst realistic outcome of a mistake is a lost exchange.

The gameplan

1
Test the rust immediately
Pressure from the opening bell. Her Round 1 accuracy of 58% is her best of the fight and Cerminara's Round 1 is her worst — 33% accuracy at a −1.7 differential. Find out in three minutes what 31 months cost.
2
Close the two inches and stay closed
Do not kickbox at 68" range. Enter, clinch on the fence, land the near-perfect-conversion clinch strikes, and make every exchange happen where Cerminara does 8% of her work.
3
Invest in the body early
33% of her career targeting is body work, the highest body rate in this matchup, and body damage is what breaks returning fighters in Round 3 — not head-hunting.
4
Use takedowns as scorecard instruments
43% into 50% is a free round-winner. Ride position, accumulate control, and do not chase a submission on a woman who has never been tapped in 24 fights.
5
Win the third with output, not desperation
Her Round 3 is her highest-volume round (20.4) and Cerminara's is her most porous (25.1 absorbed). Empty the tank there, with clean shots, and leave no room for a second Winnipeg scorecard.

Path to Victory

Katlyn Cerminara

Three ambiguous rounds at 68 inches. If she never has to fight off the fence and the timing came back intact, fifteen decision wins say she knows exactly which touches score.

Why they win

The résumé is not close

Seventeen UFC fights, a world title challenge, and wins over Maia twice, Ribas, Calvillo, Araújo, Calderwood, Antonina Shevchenko, Aldana, Davis and Murphy. Horth has never shared a cage with anyone of that tier.

Fifteen decision wins — a UFC record for a woman

Nobody in the history of the women's divisions is better at converting fifteen ambiguous minutes into a raised hand. It is the exact skill this fight most likely comes down to.

Size and volume

+2" height, +2" reach, and 4.58 SLpM against 3.80. She throws more, from further away, and Horth is the shorter fighter who must travel to work.

Elite chin, never submitted

Two stoppage losses in 24 fights, both to genuinely elite finishers, and zero submission losses ever. Both of Horth's finishing paths are structurally narrow against this specific durability profile.

The clinch counter nobody prices

Renzo Gracie base, and her single most efficient recent round was 22 of 32 (68%) with 16 of 17 in the clinch against Barber — the exact phase Horth intends to fight in.

The gameplan

1
Fight at 68 inches and never stop moving
Jab, teep, angle out. Every second spent at range is a second Horth's clinch and takedown edges are neutralized entirely.
2
Bank the early rounds while the legs are freshest
Her rust risk is highest in Round 1 but so is her recovery capacity — a lead means the judges are already leaning her way if the third gets ugly.
3
Out-throw by a margin that makes accuracy irrelevant
The Fiorot fight produced 286 attempts; the Maia and Ribas wins were built on relentless touching. Volume is her entire scoring mechanism.
4
Defend the fence like the fight depends on it
Underhooks, frames, immediate exits. Fifty percent takedown defence cannot be allowed to be tested ten times.
5
Escalate in the third
Her output rises to 130% of Round 1 by the final round. If the cards are split, her history says that closes the gap — and if the range is gone, the answer is the Barber template at 69% clinch accuracy, not retreat.

Danger Zone

How Jamey-Lyn Horth loses

The Maverick replay in a different costume. She fights at range on Cerminara's terms, gets out-touched twenty-to-sixteen per round by a longer opponent, and never establishes the clinch — the same rhythm failure that held her to 15 significant strikes in 15 minutes in December 2024.
The Winnipeg card repeats. She outlands Cerminara across three rounds and loses anyway, because judges reward the taller fighter's volume and Cerminara has spent a decade learning exactly which touches score.
She over-commits to the finish. Chasing a stoppage against a chin that absorbed championship rounds from Valentina Shevchenko, she burns her efficiency edge, drifts to 30% accuracy, and hands away rounds she was winning cleanly.

Danger Zone

How Katlyn Cerminara loses

The rust is exactly what it looks like. Thirty-one months, 37 years old, first camp back — she is a half-beat slow at the range her entire game depends on, gets clipped in Round 1 or worn down by Round 3, and becomes the third stoppage loss of her career.
She is walked to the fence and held there. Horth converts at 43% into her 50% defence, banks control minutes, works the body (33% of Horth's targeting), and Cerminara spends fifteen minutes fighting the fight she has spent a career avoiding.
She wins the volume battle and still loses the cards. She out-throws Horth by a hundred attempts and out-lands her by nothing, in Canada, against a Canadian, with judges who see 48% accuracy connecting flush and 35% accuracy grazing.

The variable everything routes through

The Thirty-One-Month Question

Cerminara last competed on March 9, 2024. She returns at 37, after childbirth, having framed the comeback in two words — "Mom's back." The uncomfortable analytical truth is that her style is the least layoff-resilient style in the sport. She does not win on power, frame strength or grappling positions, all attributes that survive time off reasonably well. She wins on timing, footwork, range judgment and volume management, which are the first things to degrade and the last to return. A puncher can be rusty and still land one; a 35%-accuracy range technician who is a half-beat slow is simply a fighter who now lands 28%.

31 months

since Cerminara last competed — March 9, 2024

The mechanism and its hard dependency

Volume Without Conversion

Cerminara's 35% striking accuracy ranks 32nd of 32 rate-carrying flyweights. That is not noise — it is a load-bearing feature of her game, and it has worked, because out-throwing everyone by 40% still nets a positive touch count against fighters who land 46% of a smaller total. Against Fiorot she threw 286 significant strikes in fifteen minutes; against Ribas she threw 99 in a single round and landed 19. The problem is the dependency: the opponent must be roughly as inaccurate as she is. Horth is not. Run the volume model against a 64% striking defence and it collapses — she throws 60 in a round, lands 20, absorbs 16 clean ones back, and a round she should be winning comfortably becomes a coin flip.

35%

Cerminara striking accuracy — 32nd of 32 flyweights

Winnipeg, and why conviction is capped at 6

The Judging Shadow Over Both Corners

Horth's last fight was a decision she almost certainly won. At UFC Fight Night 273 in Winnipeg she outstruck JJ Aldrich 70 to 50 and won the strike count in all three rounds; media scorecards ran overwhelmingly her way; she had closed as roughly a −15000 favourite. Three judges gave every round to Aldrich's counters, 29-28 across the board. That result cuts both ways. It means Horth's true form entering Edmonton is a three-fight run of quality performances rather than a W-L wobble — and it is a live warning that she can dominate the statistical record of a fight and still lose the piece of paper that counts, against the woman who owns the UFC record for decision wins.

The strongest case for the underdog

Strength of Schedule, Qualitatively

There is no honest way to compare these two résumés and call it close. Cerminara has shared a cage with a reigning champion in a title fight, with the woman who would become champion, and with a long list of ranked contenders — Maia twice, Ribas, Calvillo, Araújo, Calderwood, Andrade, Aldana, Carmouche, Eye, Davis, Murphy, Barber. Horth's seven UFC opponents sit squarely in the division's middle, and she is 4-3 against them. That gap is why her striking composite is credited at ~54 rather than the raw arithmetic's ~47, why her cardio is credited at ~66 despite the layoff, and why a fighter with the division's worst accuracy is given a 29% decision probability. What it cannot do is manufacture takedown defence, restore two and a half years of timing, or invent a finishing threat that has not existed since 2016.

Worth a point or two, and no more

Edmonton, and What a Home Crowd Actually Buys

Rogers Place will be loud for the Canadian. In practice, home advantage in MMA is worth less than fans believe and more than analysts admit: it does not improve technique, but it does reliably influence pace commitment and, at the margin, close-round perception. For a pressure fighter with a positive differential, both effects point the same way. The caution is real, though — Horth was also the home fighter at UFC Winnipeg, in front of a Canadian crowd, and the judges did not care.

The Five-Round Clock

Jamey-Lyn Horth danger windowKatlyn Cerminara danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The information round

Horth's Round 1 is her most accurate (58%) and her stingiest — opponents land only 9.0 on her. Cerminara's is historically her weakest: 33% accuracy at a −1.7 differential, and 31 months of rust compounds exactly that weakness. If she looks sharp in the first five minutes, revise the lean upward immediately.

Critical Insight
Neither fighter's equity is genuinely front-loaded — this is a back-loaded fight on both sides, which is unusual. Horth's finishing history clusters in Rounds 2-3 (five of six) and Cerminara's output escalates to 130% of her Round 1 by the third. What is front-loaded is the information: Cerminara's rust, if it exists, will be legible within 180 seconds, and everything downstream flows from it. Horth does not need a finish — she needs to be the cleaner fighter for fifteen minutes, which the differential says she already is by a factor of twenty-six.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Horth lands 48% of what she throws while absorbing 2.64 per minute; Cerminara lands 35% — the worst mark among 32 rate-carrying flyweights — while absorbing 4.48. Across the round-by-round ledgers that is +15.9 significant strikes per fifteen minutes against +0.6.

Cerminara has zero finishes in 17 UFC fights and a 0.06 knockdown average, so her only path is a decision — one she must win at 37, on 31 months of rust, in Canada, while defending takedowns at 50% against a 43% converter with 81% defence of her own.

Model: Jamey-Lyn Horth 67% / Katlyn Cerminara 33%, conviction 6/10 — capped because the résumé gap is enormous and because Horth has already outstruck JJ Aldrich 70-to-50 across three rounds and lost the scorecard anyway.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Horth Decision — 46%Horth Submission — 5%Horth KO/TKO — 16%Cerminara KO/TKO — 3%Cerminara Decision — 29%Cerminara Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Jamey-Lyn Horth gold · Katlyn Cerminara orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Cerminara's rust coefficient

Thirty-one months out, age 37, a first camp back after childbirth — against the least layoff-resilient style in the sport. This is the single largest source of variance in the simulation and the reason the model sits at 67 rather than 55.

The accuracy chasm

48% against 35%, or #13 against #32 of 32, run across fifteen minutes. Cerminara's volume model only works when the opponent is roughly as inaccurate as she is, and Horth lands nearly half of what she throws.

The strike differential

Horth is +15.9 significant strikes per fifteen minutes; Cerminara is +0.6 across seventeen UFC fights. Even discounting heavily for opposition quality — and it should be discounted heavily — a twenty-six-fold gap does not close.

Takedown asymmetry and zero finishing threat

43% offense into 50% defence versus 16% offense into 81% defence, against a fighter with zero finishes in 17 UFC fights, a 0.06 knockdown average and no stoppage of any kind since March 2016. Fading Cerminara inside the distance is the most confident call on the page.

Judging variance and venue

A Canadian crowd, a Canadian fighter, and the demonstrated fact that Horth can outland an opponent 70-to-50 across three rounds and still lose the card. Edmonton is worth a point or two; the Winnipeg shadow is worth more than that to Cerminara.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Clean Fifteen

The structural chalk and the single largest bucket on the page. Horth closes the two inches, banks clinch minutes and body work, converts a takedown or two into control rather than chasing finishes, and out-lands a 35%-accuracy opponent by a margin no judge can misread. Six of her seven UFC fights went the distance; fifteen of Cerminara's seventeen did.

Scripted outcomes for Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jamey-Lyn Horth win probability

16%

46%

KO/TKODECSUB

Deliberately capped below her 44% career KO rate. She has never scored a knockdown in the Octagon (KD 0.00 across seven fights) and Cerminara owns an elite chin with only two stoppage losses in 24 fights, both to genuinely elite finishers. This is accumulative-damage equity in Rounds 2-3, not one-punch equity — five of her six career finishes live in the back half.
The single largest bucket on the page and the structural chalk. Two decision-heavy fighters with a wide efficiency gap produce exactly this shape: Horth simply out-landing and out-controlling for fifteen minutes, the way she out-landed Demopoulos 101 to nothing memorable across three rounds.
A live but thin flier. Both her career submissions are rear-naked chokes and both came in Round 3 — but Cerminara has never been submitted in 24 professional fights, and the Renzo Gracie defensive base is the real thing.

Katlyn Cerminara win probability

29%

KO/TKODECSUB

Three points, and they would represent her first knockout since March 2016. Zero finishes in seventeen UFC fights and a knockdown average of 0.06 is not a small edge to overcome — it is the absence of a mechanism.
Her overwhelming path and essentially her only one. It carries her elite-tier experience, her division-record decision craft, her +2" reach, and the real possibility that 31 months cost her less than the model assumes.
One point. She has 0.31 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and zero UFC submissions in seventeen fights; this is a scramble outcome against a woman who has never been tapped, not a hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Jamey-Lyn

Katlyn

Jamey-Lyn

29-28 Horth

She banks her sharpest round and her highest-output round; Cerminara takes the quiet second

The most likely card, and the shape of the 46% decision bucket

30-27 Horth

The efficiency gap reads clean on all three cards

Live from the opening bell if the rust is exactly what it looks like

29-28 Cerminara

Volume and length win the ambiguous rounds — the Winnipeg card written a second time

Her likeliest route inside the 29% decision bucket

Model and price

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 67%
Fair decimal odds: 1.49

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Katlyn Cerminara

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 33%
Fair decimal odds: 3.03

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jamey-Lyn Horth

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.50 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Katlyn Cerminara

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 3.04 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Horth by decision at 46% is the structural play — the largest single bucket, matching both fighters' distance-heavy histories and the twenty-six-fold strike-differential gap. The genuine flier is Horth inside the distance at 21% combined, which prices a rusty 37-year-old absorbing 25.1 significant strikes in her most porous round against a woman with four career TKOs and five of six finishes in Rounds 2-3. The strongest fade is Cerminara inside the distance at 4%: a fighter with zero finishes in seventeen UFC fights and no stoppage of any kind since March 2016 should not be backed to end this. And the position to avoid is over-confidence in the favourite — Cerminara by decision at 29% is a real number, carried by a division-record decision résumé and by the demonstrated fact that Horth can outland an opponent 70-to-50 and still lose the card.

Conviction

6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A clear, multi-factor lean rather than a lock. Four independent signals — efficiency, absorption, takedown asymmetry and activity — all point the same direction, which is rare and earns a rating above the coin-flip band. It is capped at six because the two largest counterweights are genuinely large: the résumé gap is enormous, and Horth has already proven she can win a fight statistically and lose it on the scorecards. Lean: Jamey-Lyn Horth.

What backs the lean

The efficiency chasm — 48% accuracy against the worst mark in the division, 35% at #32 of 32.
The differential — +15.9 significant strikes per fifteen minutes against +0.6, even after discounting for opposition quality.
Takedown asymmetry — 43% offense and 81% defence into 16% offense and 50% defence; she can grapple and cannot be grappled.
Absorption — SApM 2.64 (#9) against 4.48 (#23). She does not pay for her offense.
Cerminara has no finishing threat at all: zero finishes in 17 UFC fights, KD 0.06, nothing since March 2016.
Thirty-one months, age 37 and a first camp back after childbirth, against the least layoff-resilient style in the sport.
Never finished in twelve professional fights, fighting at home, with two bouts in the last ten months.

What limits it

The résumé is not close — a title challenge and wins over Maia ×2, Ribas, Calvillo, Araújo, Calderwood and Antonina Shevchenko; Horth has faced nobody of that tier.
Fifteen decision wins, the UFC record for a female fighter. Nobody is better at converting ambiguous minutes.
+2" height, +2" reach, and higher raw volume — 4.58 SLpM against 3.80.
Elite chin tier and never submitted in 24 fights; both of Horth's finishing paths are structurally narrow against that durability profile.
A proven late-round engine — AFT 14:10, with Round 3 output at 130% of Round 1.
The Winnipeg card: Horth has already lost a fight she outstruck 70-to-50 across three rounds, and Cerminara is the worst possible opponent to be ambiguous against.
The clinch counter — her most efficient recent round was 22 of 32 with 16 of 17 in the clinch, in the exact phase Horth intends to own.

Final Assessment

In roughly 67 of 100 simulations, Jamey-Lyn Horth is simply the sharper, fresher, harder-to-hit fighter for fifteen minutes. Most often — 46% — that reads as a workmanlike decision: closing the two-inch gap, banking clinch minutes and body work, converting takedowns into control rather than chasing finishes, and out-landing a 35%-accuracy opponent by a margin no judge can misread. Sometimes, 16% of the time, the accumulation tells on a 37-year-old returning from 31 months away and the Bleda version of Horth appears — clean, forward, and finishing in the second or third round where five of her six career stoppages live. Occasionally, 5%, a hurt Cerminara turns away in a scramble and Horth's two career rear-naked chokes get a third sibling.

In the other 33, Katlyn Cerminara reminds everyone why she was the #1 contender. Almost all of it — 29% — is the thing she has done better than any woman in UFC history: fight at range, throw more, touch more often, refuse to be dragged into a phase war, and hand three judges fifteen minutes of ambiguity that a decade of elite-level experience has taught her exactly how to shade. A sliver, 4%, is a finish, and it would be her first in more than ten years.

The data gives Cerminara the résumé, the reach, the volume and the single greatest decision-winning career the women's division has produced; it gives Horth accuracy, defence, takedowns, durability, activity, a home crowd, and a +15.9 strike differential against a woman who is +0.6. Thirty-one months is a very long time to ask a 37-year-old's timing to sit still, and a fighter who cannot finish must win every ambiguous minute to survive it. On October 17 in Edmonton we take Jamey-Lyn Horth clearly — while remembering that Winnipeg already showed us how this exact fighter can win a fight and lose the paperwork.

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