Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Colby Thicknesse

“Slickness”

9W1L

9-1, #49

Asaf Chopurov

“Honey Badger”

11W0L

11-0, no UFC row

A ranked bantamweight with a stale rate line against an unbeaten man who has not been measured here

BantamweightEtihad Arena, Abu DhabiOctober 24, 2026UFC 333 preliminary

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Thicknesse is 9-1 and ranked #49, with UFC decisions already on the UFC.com page. Chopurov is 11-0 with no UFC row. His photo is a cage shot, not an ESPN headshot. No win probability is assigned.

Paths that change the fight

Colby ThicknesseThe usable picture is a man who has already been to decisions with Morales, Topuria, and Musasa. It is not the May wrestling-accuracy line.
Asaf ChopurovNo UFC plan is written. The regional finishes are a listing, not a style he has shown in the Octagon.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 0/10

May rates are one win late.
Chopurov has no UFC row.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Colby Thicknesse

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Asaf Chopurov

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

UFC.com athlete page, ESPN 5264462, Sherdog height and date of birth, analysis/UFC333/thicknesse-vs-chopurov.md.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

A 9-1 UFC record against an unmeasured 11-0

The Analyst's Take

UFC.com lists Colby Thicknesse at 9-1: a unanimous decision over Josias Musasa (September 27, 2025), a unanimous-decision loss to Aleksandre Topuria (February 8, 2025), and a unanimous decision over Vince Morales (November 9, 2024). The same page says two knockout wins, two submission wins, and four first-round finishes. ESPN 5264462 gives the headshot, a birthdate of June 23, 1999, orthodox, and Freestyle Fighting Gym. A May 2026 page in this project still had him at 8-1 with 2.53 strikes per minute and 29% accuracy. That line is one win behind and is not the current rate. Chopurov is 11-0 on the booking. Sherdog lists him at 5'7", born November 17, 2001, nickname Honey Badger. A 10-fight regional list and the 11-0 booking do not match, so no method pie is drawn for him. No ESPN id was found. The photo is the cage shot supplied for this bout.

Colby Thicknesse

Attribute

Asaf Chopurov

9-1-0

Record

11-0-0

Age

Jun 23, 1999 / Nov 17, 200124

5'9" on ESPNA May page here said Thicknesse was 5'7". ESPN’s bio says 5'9".

Height

5'7" on Sherdog

69" on the May page

Reach

Not used

#49

Rank

Unranked

Orthodox

Stance

Not a UFC stance

Thicknesse’s headshot is ESPN. Chopurov’s photo is a cage shot with a belt, not an ESPN headshot. Height for Chopurov is Sherdog, not a UFC weigh-in.

Venue Factor
Three rounds at 135 on the UFC 333 preliminary card in Abu Dhabi. Cage size is not used as a finding.

The Fighters

UFC.com results for Thicknesse. No UFC row for Chopurov.

Colby Thicknesse

Pro Record

9-1-0

UFC Record

UFC.com: win Musasa, loss Topuria, win Morales. Octagon debut February 8, 2025.

Streak

The latest UFC.com result in the notes is the Musasa decision

Finish Rate

UFC.com: two knockout wins, two submission wins, four first-round finishes, in nine wins

Avg Fight Time

Not a current aggregate

Chin · The UFC loss on the page was a decision, not a finishSOS · #49 on the bookingRanked bantamweight

The May 2.53 / 29% line described an 8-1 fighter. The record is now 9-1. Those rates stay in the analysis file as a rejected snapshot.

Asaf Chopurov

Pro Record

11-0-0 on the booking

UFC Record

No completed UFC bout stored

Streak

Unbeaten on the booking

Finish Rate

Not drawn. A 10-fight public list is not an 11-0 method table.

Avg Fight Time

No UFC sample

Chin · Unproven in the UFCSOS · Debut on the stored bout countUnbeaten, unmeasured here

11-0 and a blank UFC column. If the stored zero is wrong, this page has to be rewritten from a UFC.com row.

Colby Thicknesse

— dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Asaf Chopurov

— dealt · — absorbed

Colby Thicknessesignature weapons

UFC decisionsMorales, Topuria, and Musasa all went three rounds on the UFC.com notes.

×0

Career finishesTwo knockouts, two submissions, four first-round finishes. Not the May attempt rates.

×0

Asaf Chopurovsignature weapons

No UFC row11-0 on the booking. The photo is a cage shot. No ESPN id was verified.

×0

Listed regional finishesRamos by submission, Pena and Saldanha by stoppage, in public UAE Warriors notes. Not a UFC sample.

×0

Colby Thicknesse

Josias Musasa

Decision

Opponent context: ufc

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Sep 27, 2025

Aleksandre Topuria

Decision

Opponent context: ufc

RR3

UFC 312 — Feb 8, 2025

Vince Morales

Decision

Opponent context: ufc

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Nov 9, 2024

Pattern

The three UFC.com results in the notes are all decisions. The career page also claims two knockouts and two submissions among nine wins. Those finishes are not in this three-fight UFC extract.

Asaf Chopurov

Adriano Ramos

Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 2:24

UAE Warriors — Mar 28, 2026

Demarte Pena

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

UAE Warriors — Oct 22, 2025

João Pedro Saldanha

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1

UAE Warriors — Jul 23, 2025

Pattern

Three regional results from public listings. They do not complete an 11-0 log, and they are not UFC rates.

Colby Thicknesse

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Asaf Chopurov

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Thicknesse’s pie is UFC.com’s wording: 2 knockouts and 2 submissions out of 9 wins, so the other 5 sit in the decision slice. The round bar is only the 'four first-round finishes' line. It is not a full round chart, so the decision count is not duplicated there. Chopurov’s pie is blank.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Colby	Asaf
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	#49 on the booking — Topuria is the UFC loss. Morales and Musasa were decisions.	Debut on the stored bout count — UAE Warriors results cited in public listings (Ramos, Pena, Saldanha) are regional. They are not a UFC rate.
UFC sample	UFC.com: win Musasa, loss Topuria, win Morales. Octagon debut February 8, 2025.	No completed UFC bout stored
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (3 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Josias Musasa, Aleksandre Topuria, Vince Morales	Adriano Ramos, Demarte Pena, João Pedro Saldanha

Colbysmall sample

Asafsmall sample

No current paired rates.

Metric	Colby	Asaf
Record	9-1	11-0
Rank	#49	Unranked
UFC results listed	3 decisions	None
Age	27	24

Archetype Base Rate

Ranked 0%100% Unmeasured

No model sample · winPctA is 0 because no probability was assigned. The letter A is not a lean.

Colby ThicknesseAsaf Chopurov

Bantamweight

Stat	Colby	Colby rank	Div avg	Asaf rank	Asaf
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	Stale 2.53, not used	—	—	—	Not available
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	Stale 29%, not used	—	—	—	Not available
Rank	#49	—	—	—	Unranked

Statistical Verdict
The May line is quoted only so it is not mistaken for the current row.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Colby Thicknesse

The three UFC results above went the distance. Per-round shares were not pulled.

Asaf Chopurov

No UFC rounds.

Critical Insight
Empty rows are missing shares.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Colby · N/AAsaf · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

What is safe to say

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open spaceEven

The 2.53 line is stale.

PocketEven

29% accuracy is not reused as current.

ClinchEven

0.70 takedowns at 85% accuracy was the 8-1 snapshot.

GroundEven

Two career submissions are not a current attempt rate.

Path to Victory

Colby Thicknesse

The usable picture is a man who has already been to decisions with Morales, Topuria, and Musasa. It is not the May wrestling-accuracy line.

Why they win

He has been measured

Three UFC decisions are on the athlete page. Chopurov has none here.

Rank

#49 is the bottom of a long list. It is still a roster signal the other man does not have.

The gameplan

1
Do not fight the May spreadsheet
2.53 and 0.70 takedowns described 8-1. The record is 9-1.
2
Decisions are the filmed UFC path
Morales, Topuria, Musasa.

Path to Victory

Asaf Chopurov

No UFC plan is written. The regional finishes are a listing, not a style he has shown in the Octagon.

Why they win

11-0 on the sheet

Unbeaten and unranked. The 11th win is not in the 10-fight list this page saw.

Younger

24 against 27, if the Sherdog date of birth holds.

The gameplan

1
No invented entries
Until a UFC row exists, a gameplan would be a style assigned without Octagon tape.

Danger Zone

How Colby Thicknesse loses

The 29% accuracy snapshot was the real striking habit and the missing win did not change it.
A debut wrestler tests the stale 50% takedown defence. This page cannot say Chopurov is that wrestler.

Danger Zone

How Asaf Chopurov loses

He is a true debut into someone who has already done fifteen minutes three times in the UFC.
The public record lists disagree, so the 11-0 camp story is not stable.

8-1 versus 9-1

The rate line is one win late

2.53 strikes per minute and 29% accuracy stay in the file as the May snapshot. They are not Saturday’s numbers.

Musasa, Topuria, Morales

The UFC results on the athlete page are decisions

The career blurb still claims two knockouts and two submissions. Those are not these three UFC fights.

Cage photo

Chopurov has no verified headshot id

Sherdog supplies 5'7" and a birthday. The photo on this page is the cage shot supplied for the bout, not an ESPN headshot.

The Five-Round Clock

Colby Thicknesse danger windowAsaf Chopurov danger windowNeutral / contested

R1Four career first-round finishes

UFC.com’s line for Thicknesse. Not placed against Chopurov.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. No clock is a prediction.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

No calibrated probability

If you only read 3 things

No win probability.

Thicknesse’s headshot is ESPN 5264462. UFC.com has him 9-1, with decisions over Musasa and Morales and a decision loss to Topuria.

Chopurov’s photo is the cage shot supplied for this bout. No ESPN id was verified.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Not simulated — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Colby Thicknesse gold · Asaf Chopurov orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Rank against a blank

#49 versus an unranked 11-0 with no UFC row.

Stale rates

The May line is one win behind.

Record disagreement

Chopurov is 11-0 on the booking and 10-0 on one public list.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Not scripted

A script percentage would be a model.

Scripted outcomes for Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Colby Thicknesse win probability

KO/TKODECSUB

Two career knockouts are not a share of this fight.
Not assigned.
Two career submissions are not a share of this fight.

Asaf Chopurov win probability

KO/TKODECSUB

Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Not projected

No judges' card

Forecast withheld

Model and price

Colby Thicknesse

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Asaf Chopurov

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Colby Thicknesse

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.

What price would change the calculation? · Asaf Chopurov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

None.

Conviction

0/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Conviction is 0. The bio and the UFC result list are filled in. The pick is not. Lean: No side.

What backs the lean

Nothing is listed as a lean.

What limits it

May rates are one win late.
Chopurov has no UFC row.
His public record lists disagree.

Final Assessment

Thicknesse is the known side because UFC.com has results, not because 2.53 strikes per minute is still true.

Chopurov is an unbeaten name with a Sherdog frame and no photo this page will invent. That is the whole scouting limit.

Back to UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Fight Card