Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev – UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Nikita Krylov

“The Miner”

31W12L

Sambo Finisher

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

“The Hunter”

10W0L

First-Round Assassin

Sixteen career submissions against three minutes and thirty-three seconds

Light HeavyweightEtihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesOctober 24, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Krylov's recent stoppage losses make defensive discipline and controlled entries central to his approach against Yakhyaev. Yakhyaev can test that vulnerability through pressure, but his limited UFC evidence leaves uncertainty about how reliably he can exploit it. Krylov's losses alone are not a complete case for the opponent.

Paths that change the fight

Nikita KrylovThe clinch inside ninety seconds, or a neck offered on a cold shot. Ten of his twelve UFC submission attempts fired in Round 1, and if the fight is somehow still live at the start of the third, the projection flips to him.
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevOne clean shot on a jaw that has failed three times since April 2025 — or the Cerqueira sequence through a 53% takedown defence: hurt him, take him down, take the back, choke.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10

A 1.14 submission rate against a 0.27 divisional baseline — four times the division, 2nd of 26 — with sixteen career submissions and a triangle finish from bottom guard. The most underpriced weapon in the fight.
Every verified statistic is Krylov's: 2.75 absorbed per minute (3rd of 26), a 1.79 damage ratio (3rd of 26), 2.19 takedowns per fifteen (7th of 26), 76.5% clinch accuracy, 81.0% ground accuracy.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Nikita Krylov

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Reference quote—

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Statistics reflect the sample and reporting dates available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Nikita Krylov has been stopped by strikes three times in sixteen months — Dominick Reyes at 2:24 of the first, Bogdan Guskov at 4:18 of the first in this exact arena, and Robert Whittaker at 1:01 of the third on July 11 with a jaw that went for a hospital scan. He is 34, he is 1-3 in his last four, and he returns 105 days later against a 25-year-old who has never lost a professional fight. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is 10-0 with nine finishes, eight of them in Round 1, and three UFC wins that took 0:33, 2:52 and 0:08. The honest shape of the lean is this: we favour Yakhyaev because of what is documented about Krylov's decline, not because of anything measured about Yakhyaev. He has three minutes and thirty-three seconds of total Octagon time, and every rate printed beside his name — 8.64 strikes a minute, 11.11 takedowns per fifteen, 7.41 submission attempts per fifteen — is an extrapolation from roughly four minutes of cage time. Our composites finish dead level at ~57.25 apiece and we override them, which is why conviction is capped at 6 and the whole projection is flagged high-risk.

Nikita Krylov

Attribute

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Age

6'3"

Height

6'2"

77.5"

Reach

+0.5" Yakhyaev78.0"

44.5"

Leg Reach

44.0"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Fight Club No1, Moscow

Team

MMA & Combat Nürnberg, Germany

Sep 1, 2013

Octagon Debut

Nov 22, 2025

Sambo finisher — clinch mauler, head-kick knockouts, early submissions

Fighting Style

Front-loaded finisher — power entries into chokes, eight first-round finishes

This is not a size fight, it is a clock fight. Half an inch of reach to Yakhyaev, one inch of height and half an inch of leg reach to Krylov: all of it inside measurement noise. Neither man reaches over the other and neither hides behind a frame. What separates them is nine years and roughly 145 minutes of Octagon mileage. Krylov debuted in the UFC in September 2013, when Yakhyaev was twelve years old. He has absorbed 379 significant strikes in the Octagon at a verified 2.59 per minute across his measured 21-bout window; Yakhyaev has absorbed roughly nine, in total, ever. The tale of the tape is a wash. The tale of the odometer is not.

Venue Factor
Etihad Arena is not neutral ground for Krylov — it is a crime scene. On July 26, 2025, in this exact building, Bogdan Guskov knocked him out with punches at 4:18 of Round 1. Fifteen months later he returns to the same floor against a younger, unbeaten, harder-hitting version of the same problem. Abu Dhabi is also comfortable territory for a Nürnberg-based, Russia-born prospect on a UFC fast-track — the crowd will be a non-factor and neither man gets a home-cage bump. What the venue supplies is a precedent, and the precedent is a first-round knockout of the older man.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nikita Krylov

Pro Record

31-12-0

UFC Record

12-10 across 22 bouts and two stints since 2013

Streak

Lost his last — TKO (jaw injury after a punch) to Robert Whittaker at 1:01 of R3, UFC 329

Finish Rate

93.5% (29 of 31 wins) — 16 submissions, 13 knockouts

Avg Fight Time

7:09

Chin · Cracking — stopped by strikes three times in sixteen monthsSOS · ChampionshipEarly submission hunter

Krylov's 43-fight ledger is one of the most violent in the division's history: 29 of 31 wins finished, and only four of his 22 UFC bouts have ever reached a scorecard. He was a submission prodigy first — his first twelve professional wins include kimuras, an Achilles lock, an americana and four rear-naked chokes — and added the knockout game later, capped by head-kick finishes of Walt Harris in 0:25 and Ed Herman in 0:40. The last sixteen months rewrote the file. Dominick Reyes knocked him out in 2:24 at UFC 314 in April 2025; Bogdan Guskov knocked him out in 4:18 in Abu Dhabi that July; he answered with a genuine Round 3 knockout of Modestas Bukauskas at UFC 324 in January 2026; then Robert Whittaker, making his light-heavyweight debut and giving away natural size, broke the fight open and stopped him at 1:01 of the third on July 11, 2026, with Krylov withdrawing after a punch damaged his jaw. A precautionary scan confirmed no fracture. That was 105 days before this fight.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Pro Record

10-0-0

UFC Record

3-0 in eleven months — all three finished inside Round 1

Streak

Five straight finishes, four of them in Round 1 — last out an eight-second knockout of Julius Walker

Finish Rate

90% (9 of 10 wins) — 5 submissions, 4 knockouts

Avg Fight Time

1:01 across four UFC and Contender Series appearances

Chin · Unmeasured — never knocked down in ten pro fights, but only 3:33 of Octagon evidenceSOS · Entry-level UFCDual-path finisher — 4 KO / 5 Sub

Ten fights, and the mirror image of Krylov with none of the mileage. He turned pro in November 2021, has never lost, has never been knocked down and — as far as any public log shows — has never been in trouble. He won the KhanFight light heavyweight title with the only decision of his career, a five-round unanimous verdict over Nikolay Kovalenko in January 2023, then took the ARES FC light heavyweight title by first-round guillotine over Paulin Begai in July 2024, defended it with a first-round rear-naked choke of Jacky Jeanne, blew through Alik Lorenz in thirty seconds on the Contender Series, and has since gone 3-0 in the UFC without seeing the second round once. Rafael Cerqueira lasted 0:33, Brendson Ribeiro 2:52, Julius Walker eight seconds. Everything he has proven, he has proven inside the opening five minutes; everything he has not proven, he has not proven at all.

Nikita Krylov

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Nikita Krylovsignature weapons

Rear-Naked Chokede Lima at 2:29 of R1, Ovince Saint Preux at 2:30 of R2, Barroso at 3:11 of R2 — three of his sixteen career submissions, and four more among his first twelve pro wins

×3

Triangle from Bottom GuardRyan Spann at 3:38 of Round 1 — he does not need top position to end a fight, and Paul Craig proved the same geometry works on him

×1

Head KickWalt Harris in 0:25, Ed Herman in 0:40 — the power that produced 13 career knockouts is still intact at 34

×2

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaevsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeRafael Cerqueira at 0:33 on his UFC debut, Jacky Jeanne at 2:23 in an ARES title defence — he hunts the back off damage

×2

Opening-Minute KnockoutJulius Walker 0:08, Alik Lorenz 0:30, Lamine 0:37 — three of his four career knockouts landed inside forty seconds

×3

GuillotinePaulin Begai at 1:32 of Round 1 to take the ARES FC light heavyweight title

×1

Nikita Krylov

Robert Whittaker

TKO — jaw injury after punch

Opponent context: elite

RR3 (1:01)

UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026

Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO — punch to the head at distance

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (4:57)

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett — Jan 24, 2026

Bogdan Guskov

KO/TKO — punches on the ground

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (4:18)

UFC on ABC 9, Etihad Arena — Jul 26, 2025

Dominick Reyes

KO/TKO — punch to the head at distance

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (2:24)

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes — Apr 12, 2025

Ryan Spann

Submission — triangle choke from bottom guard

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (3:38)

UFC FN: Yan vs. Dvalishvili — Mar 11, 2023

Pattern

One win, three losses, and all three losses by strikes. Reyes ended him at distance in 144 seconds. Guskov ended him on the ground in this very arena. Whittaker broke the fight open early in the third and Krylov withdrew with jaw damage after a single punch. The Bukauskas knockout in between is the counter-evidence and it is not trivial: Krylov was down on output through two rounds — 10 of 28, then 23 of 40 — and then detonated in the third, landing 39 of 69 significant strikes with a knockdown and a stoppage at 4:57. That is a man who can still win a light-heavyweight fight late. It is also the only one of his last four in which he was not the one being counted. Note too the two-year gap between Spann in March 2023 and Reyes in April 2025 — a long layoff immediately before the current decline began.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Julius Walker

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (0:08)

UFC FN: Fiziev vs. Torres — Jun 27, 2026

Brendson Ribeiro

Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:52)

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026

Rafael Cerqueira

Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (0:33)

UFC FN: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker — Nov 22, 2025

Alik Lorenz

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (0:30)

Dana White's Contender Series S9 W3 — Aug 26, 2025

Jacky Jeanne

Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:23)

Ares FC 25: Sola vs. Gagloev — Sep 26, 2024

Pattern

Five fights, five first-round finishes, four of them in under three minutes, and a total elapsed time across all five of roughly six and a half minutes. He has been in the UFC for eleven months and has spent three minutes and thirty-three seconds inside the Octagon. Two of the five ended in under thirty-five seconds. The alternating knockout-and-choke rhythm is real rather than a small-sample coincidence — it maps onto a 4 KO / 5 Sub career split across three promotions. What the table cannot tell you is anything at all about minute six, minute ten, or what he looks like after eating a clean shot, because none of those things has happened to him on camera at this level.

Nikita Krylov

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The donuts are career-scoped and both reconcile exactly — Krylov 13 KO + 16 Sub + 2 Dec = 31, Yakhyaev 4 + 5 + 1 = 10 — and they are almost the same donut: two submission-first finishers who take a decision only when they have to. The round bars beneath them are UFC-only for both men, because Krylov's forty-three-fight regional log is not broken out by round; read that way, six of Krylov's twelve UFC wins ended in the first and all three of Yakhyaev's did. The overlap is the story. Both men's entire professional identity lives in Round 1 — Krylov has ended or been ended there in eleven of his twenty-one measured UFC bouts, and Yakhyaev has ended eight of ten opponents there. The divergence is that Krylov's Round 1 is now a two-way street with the traffic running against him, while Yakhyaev's Round 1 has never once gone wrong.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Nikita	Abdul
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Championship — Has shared a cage with Ankalaev, Błachowicz, Teixeira, Gustafsson, Oezdemir, Reyes, Whittaker, Craig and Cirkunov — six elite-level bouts with two wins	Entry-level UFC — Cerqueira, Ribeiro and Julius Walker — all rostered light heavyweights, none ranked; two regional titles (ARES FC 2024, KhanFight 2023) and a Contender Series contract
UFC sample	12-10 across 22 bouts and two stints since 2013	3-0 in eleven months — all three finished inside Round 1
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	1 elite · 3 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (10 vs 5 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Robert Whittaker, Modestas Bukauskas, Bogdan Guskov	Julius Walker, Brendson Ribeiro, Rafael Cerqueira

Bogdan Guskov (style proxy): There are no shared opponents: both complete career logs were checked end to end and these two have never met at any level. Guskov is the closest thing to a preview on tape — a hard-hitting younger light heavyweight who needed one exchange, in this exact building. The round data is stark: Guskov landed 23 of 43 with a knockdown while Krylov landed 16 of 34 with zero control time and zero submission attempts.
Ryan Spann (style proxy): The last man to commit to a takedown on Krylov and end the night in a choke he never saw. Yakhyaev's entire offensive template involves getting on top of a hurt man, which is precisely the position where Krylov is most dangerous.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Nikita

Abdulsmall sample

Krylov's line is measured over 22 bouts: 4.38 landed per minute against a 4.50 baseline, 54% accuracy (7th of 26), 2.75 absorbed against a 3.70 baseline (3rd of 26) — and a striking defence of 48% against a 51.9% baseline that ranks 20th of 26 and is the single load-bearing weakness in the fight. Yakhyaev's published 8.64 / 69% / 59% / 2.22 is excluded from the weighting entirely; his score is built from verified finishing evidence — four career knockouts, three knockdowns in four appearances, an eight-second knockout of a rostered UFC light heavyweight — and discounted hard for having no measured fifteen-minute output and no evidence of what he does when he is hit clean.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Nikita

Abdulsmall sample

This is where Krylov's remaining edge is real rather than nostalgic: 2.19 takedowns per fifteen against a 1.16 baseline (7th of 26), and a submission rate of 1.14 against a divisional 0.27 — more than four times the division, 2nd of 26, on sixteen career submissions. It comes with two holes: 37% takedown accuracy (20 of 54, rebuilt from raw rounds) and a mediocre 53% takedown defence (22 of 47). Yakhyaev's published grappling rates are excluded — his 100% takedown defence is zero stuffed against zero attempted — and his score rests on five career submissions across three promotions in four positionally distinct varieties.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Nikita

0.0

Abdulsmall sample

Yakhyaev leads by three points and roughly all three come from the striking side, from finishing evidence rather than measured rates. On pure grappling technique the fight records gives Krylov the more decorated profile. This is not a skill mismatch.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

Nikita

Abdulsmall sample

The one axis where the veteran, not the prospect, holds the measured advantage — and it is precisely why Krylov's 38% is not lower. He has gone the full fifteen four times and won two, including a genuine cardio performance against Oezdemir at UFC 280 (seven takedowns and 9:17 of control). Yakhyaev has never once been asked a cardio question in the Octagon; his only deep-water evidence is a five-round regional decision from January 2023, and stripping that fight out leaves nine bouts totalling 19:40, an average of 2:11 each.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Nikita

0.0

Abdulsmall sample

The composites finish exactly level, and we are overriding them. A rate-and-technique model built on career-long data cannot see a sixteen-month durability collapse and it cannot see a nine-year age gap that has already begun to express itself in stoppage losses. The composites say coin flip; our 62-38 lean prices the age curve, the chin trajectory and the 105-day turnaround. Anyone who distrusts those three inputs should read this fight as much closer to even, which is a defensible position and exactly why conviction sits at 6.

Metric	Nikita	Abdul
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	7:09 (22 UFC bouts)	1:01 (4 UFC/DWCS appearances)small sample
Pace Tier	High — 4.38 SLpM, 72.2% standing time	Unmeasured — 8.64 SLpM over 4:03small sample
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	78% (17.3 → 13.4 sig) — "Slight Fade"	No R2 or R3 data at UFC levelsmall sample
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	28.6% — slow starts in roughly three of ten	Never measured — no UFC bout past Round 1small sample
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Early Submission Hunter 38%62% Front-Loaded Finisher

No archetype base-rate row applied · The 62-38 split is a deliberate override of composites that finish dead level at ~57.25 apiece, pricing three inputs a career-rate model cannot see: a nine-year age gap, three stoppage losses in sixteen months, and a 105-day turnaround from a jaw injury.

Nikita KrylovAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Light Heavyweight

· 26 fighters

Stat	Nikita	Nikita rank	Div avg	Abdul rank	Abdul
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.38	16/39	~4.50	—	8.64 (void)
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	54%	7/26	~51.7%	—	69% (void)
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	48%	20/26	~51.9%	—	59% (void)
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.75	3/26elite	~3.70	—	2.22 (void)
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.57	—	~0.64	—	11.11 (3 KDs in 4:03)
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.79	3/26elite	~1.27	—	Not found
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.19	7/26	~1.16	—	11.11 (void)
TDAccTDAccTakedown Accuracy — share of takedown attempts completed.	37% (20 of 54)	—	—	—	75% (3 of 4 — void)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	53% (22 of 47)	—	—	—	100% (0 of 0 faced)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.14	2/26elite	~0.27	—	7.41 (void)
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	7:09	—	—	—	1:01
Total Octagon Time	~149 min (22 bouts)	—	—	—	3:33 (3 bouts)
Bouts Reaching a Scorecard	4 of 22 (18%)	—	—	—	0 of 3
Times Stopped by Strikes	4 — three since April 2025	—	—	—	0

Statistical Verdict
Read the table carefully and a strange picture emerges: almost every verified statistical marker in this fight belongs to Krylov. Better absorption, a better damage ratio, a submission rate four times the divisional average, double-divisional takedown volume, more career finishes in both currencies, and thirteen years of measured Octagon function. Yakhyaev's statistical column is mostly void, because four minutes of cage time cannot produce a statistic — a takedown average of 11.11 and a knockdown average of 11.11 both mean the same thing, which is three takedowns and three knockdowns in four minutes, not eleven of anything per fifteen. What Yakhyaev owns are the four rows that are not rates at all: nine years younger, zero times stopped, zero losses, and an opponent who has been stopped by strikes three times since April 2025. The numbers favour the older man; the trend favours the younger one; we are siding with the trend and saying so out loud.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Control Time per Round (sec)

Nikita Krylov

Round 1 is where the submission threat lives and dies: 0.48 attempts per round, falling to 0.20 in the second and to exactly 0.00 in the third. Ten of his twelve UFC submission attempts fired in the opening five minutes.
Round 2 is his worst defensive round — opponents land 55.2% of what they throw at him there, his highest figure of the fight.
Round 3 is not a collapse. Accuracy rises to 60.3%, his best of any round, and control time jumps to 114 seconds. The "Slight Fade" label reflects a volume decline to 78% of his first-round output; it is a man who throws less and hits more, not a cardio cliff.
All 37 offensive and 37 defensive rounds were re-aggregated independently and reconcile exactly with the aggregate line: 638 of 1,172 significant strikes, 20 of 54 takedowns, 12 submission attempts, 6 knockdowns, 379 absorbed for a 48% striking defence, and 22 of 47 takedowns defended for 53%.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

One logged round in the entire fight records, and it lasted 33 seconds: six significant strikes landed of ten thrown, one knockdown, one takedown from one attempt, 24 seconds of control, rear-naked choke. That is his UFC debut against Rafael Cerqueira, and it is the whole dataset.
The R1 point plotted for him is that 33-second fragment, not a round. It sits at six strikes because the fight was over before minute one — it is emphatically not evidence that he lands less than Krylov over five minutes, because he has never fought five minutes in the Octagon.
Rounds 2 and 3 are blank because they do not exist. He has never been past Round 1 in the UFC, and his only career bout past Round 2 was a five-round regional title decision in January 2023, now three and a half years old.
Strike-targeting and range charts below show no data for either man: Krylov's per-round head/body/leg and distance/clinch/ground splits are not published in this build, and Yakhyaev has none at all. Nothing is estimated in their place.

Critical Insight
Yakhyaev's equity is front-loaded to an extreme degree; Krylov's is barbell-shaped. Krylov wins early — the clinch knockout or the Round 1 submission, since 83% of his submission attempts fire in the opening five minutes — or he wins very late, on a Round 3 grind or a Bukauskas-style detonation. The middle of the fight is where he is thinnest: Round 2 is simultaneously his worst defensive round and the round his submission threat evaporates. Yakhyaev's entire proven body of work fits inside the first five minutes. If this fight is still live at the start of Round 3 the projection flips toward Krylov — but only 29% of simulations ever get there and only 13% see a scorecard.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Nikita · N/AAbdul · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceAbdul owns it

Krylov's 48% striking defence ranks 20th of 26 and his slow-start rate is 28.6%, against a man who has finished at 0:08, 0:30, 0:33 and 0:37

Pocket / ExchangesAbdul owns it

13 career knockouts and a 0.57 knockdown average are real, but his distance accuracy is an ordinary 44.4% and three of his last four ended with him being counted

ClinchNikita owns it

23% of Krylov's career strikes land in the clinch at 76.5% accuracy plus 19 of 50 clinch takedowns; Yakhyaev's four minutes of tape have never tested it

GroundNikita owns it

Sub/15 1.14 against a 0.27 baseline and a triangle finish from bottom guard, against five career submissions and zero measured defensive grappling

Path to Victory

Nikita Krylov

The clinch inside ninety seconds, or a neck offered on a cold shot. Ten of his twelve UFC submission attempts fired in Round 1, and if the fight is somehow still live at the start of the third, the projection flips to him.

Why they win

The most underpriced weapon in the fight

A submission rate of 1.14 per fifteen minutes against a 0.27 divisional baseline — more than four times the division and 2nd of 26 in the ranked pool — built on sixteen career submissions in seven distinct varieties: rear-naked choke, guillotine, triangle, kimura, americana, Achilles lock and armbar. Against a grappler who wants the clinch and the back, this is the sharpest object in the cage.

He finishes from the bottom

The Ryan Spann win was a triangle choke from bottom guard at 3:38 of Round 1. Yakhyaev's entire offensive template involves getting on top of a hurt man, which is precisely the position where Krylov is most dangerous — and Paul Craig has already proved this exact geometry works at 205.

Clinch mastery

Twenty-three per cent of his career significant strikes land in the clinch at 76.5% accuracy, plus 19 of 50 clinch takedowns and 81.0% accuracy on the ground. If he can nullify the open-space exchange and drag this to the fence, the fight's most dangerous phase for him simply disappears.

The experience gulf is enormous and real

Twenty-two UFC bouts and roughly 149 minutes against three bouts and 3:33. He has shared a cage with Ankalaev, Błachowicz, Teixeira, Gustafsson, Oezdemir, Reyes and Whittaker. Nothing Yakhyaev does on October 24 will be unfamiliar to him.

Low absorption, high damage, proven late violence

SApM 2.75 against a 3.70 baseline (3rd of 26 for lowest absorption) and a damage ratio of 1.79 against a divisional 1.27 (3rd of 26). Historically he is not a man who gets outworked; he is a man who gets caught. And the Bukauskas knockout — Round 3, 4:57, after being outstruck for two rounds — is eight months old and is the direct counter to "he's finished".

The gameplan

1
Survive the first ninety seconds
Do not trade in open space early against a man who has finished opponents at 0:08, 0:30, 0:33 and 0:37. High guard, long guard, deny the clean entry — the fight cannot be won in the first minute and it can very easily be lost there.
2
Close to the clinch as the primary offensive phase
Seventy-six-and-a-half per cent accuracy, body-lock takedowns, knees. Take the fight out of the range where Yakhyaev's power operates and into the one phase of this matchup he has no measured answer for.
3
Hunt the neck on every entry
If Yakhyaev shoots, that is the single best thing that can happen to Krylov — guillotine standing, triangle off the back. Eighty-three per cent of his UFC submission attempts fire in this round, so they have to count while the clock still allows them.
4
Attack the body
His targeting already shifts that way late — body share climbs from 24.9% in the first round to 33.0% in the third — and body work is the fastest way to discover whether a man with roughly 44 minutes of career cage time has a gas tank.
5
Bank Round 3 if it arrives
Accuracy 60.3% and control 114 seconds: both peak there. He has two UFC decision wins and much the better claim to the final five minutes. And if Plan A fails and he is being timed at range, he must force a scramble at any cost — pull guard, shoot a low-percentage double, invite the ground. His worst outcome is a clean stand-up fight; half-measures at range get him knocked out.

Path to Victory

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

One clean shot on a jaw that has failed three times since April 2025 — or the Cerqueira sequence through a 53% takedown defence: hurt him, take him down, take the back, choke.

Why they win

Three stoppage losses in sixteen months

Reyes at 2:24 of the first, Guskov at 4:18 of the first, Whittaker at 1:01 of the third with a damaged jaw. That is not a slump, it is a documented durability curve — and Yakhyaev is a knockdown machine relative to his cage time, with three knockdowns in four appearances.

Nine years younger, with zero career damage

Twenty-five against thirty-four. Ten and zero, never knocked down, never submitted, never visibly hurt on tape. He arrives with an undamaged nervous system into a fight against a man whose jaw was scanned in a hospital in July.

Round-1 density that maps onto Krylov's most vulnerable window

Eight of ten career wins in Round 1, four of them inside forty seconds, and three UFC finishes at 0:33, 2:52 and 0:08. Krylov has been stopped in Round 1 five times — Saint Preux, Cirkunov, Craig, Reyes, Guskov.

Dual-path finishing into a 53% takedown defence

Four knockouts and five submissions means Krylov cannot game-plan for one threat: defend the choke and eat the right hand, respect the power and get taken to the back. Krylov stops barely half of what comes at him on entries (22 of 47), and Błachowicz has already finished him with an arm-triangle from back control.

The 105-day turnaround, in the building where it happened

He withdrew from a fight with jaw damage on July 11 and competes on October 24. No fracture was confirmed, but a fifteen-week recovery window for a compromised jaw against a man who knocked someone out in eight seconds is not a footnote — and it happens on the floor where Bogdan Guskov knocked him out in July 2025.

The gameplan

1
Attack immediately, but behind a jab
Krylov's striking defence is 48% and his slow-start rate is 28.6% — he is available early. But do not dive: the clinch and the neck are the only two quick ways to lose this fight.
2
Refuse the clinch
Frame, circle, reset. Every second spent chest-to-chest is a second in Krylov's 76.5%-accuracy phase and within reach of a guillotine.
3
Take the back only off damage, never off a cold entry
Cerqueira was hurt first, and only then taken down and choked. Shooting on an unhurt Krylov is exactly how Ryan Spann's night ended.
4
Target the jaw and the body
The documented failure point, and the fastest way to expose a 34-year-old on 105 days' rest from a knockout that needed a hospital scan.
5
Have a Round 2 plan and rehearse a Round 3
He has never needed either, and Krylov's data says the veteran gets better in the third. If the finish is not there and the clinch is winning, Yakhyaev should abandon the hunt and fight for position and points — takedowns, control, avoid the neck, take the decision. He has a five-round title-fight decision on his record; the trap is chasing the highlight into a submission at minute nine.

Danger Zone

How Nikita Krylov loses

Guskov 2.0, same building. Caught clean inside three minutes, dropped, finished on the ground before his submission game or his clinch craft gets a single repetition — July 2025 at this venue, against a faster opponent.
The back-take. One successful entry — Yakhyaev is three for four on UFC takedowns — puts him exactly where Błachowicz already finished him, against a man with two UFC rear-naked chokes at 205.
He wins Rounds 1 and 2 and then breaks. That is the Whittaker sequence, and his Round 2 defensive figure of 55.2% opponent accuracy makes accumulation a genuinely live route to that ending.

Danger Zone

How Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev loses

He shoots and Krylov attacks the neck. The Nedkov guillotine came standing at 1:24; the Spann triangle came off the back at 3:38. Yakhyaev has never had a submission attempted on him in the Octagon.
The clinch swallows him. A fence body-lock puts Krylov in his 76.5%-accuracy phase — where he knocked out Alexander Gustafsson in 67 seconds — and four minutes of tape have never tested him there.
Round 3 arrives. At minute eleven he is in unknown physiological territory against a man whose accuracy rises to 60.3% in the third and who finished someone at 4:57 of one eight months ago.

The fight's central axis

The Two Clocks

Both men are clock fighters with overlapping alarms. Krylov's submission clock reads 83.3% of attempts in Round 1, 16.7% in Round 2 and 0.0% in Round 3 — division-elite for five minutes, then it ceases to exist. Yakhyaev's career clock reads eight of ten finishes in Round 1, four inside forty seconds, and 3:33 of total UFC time. That is why 47% of outcomes are priced in Round 1 and only 13% at the scorecards. But the clocks decay in opposite directions: past the first horn Yakhyaev's proven ability drops to zero evidence, while Krylov's measured performance improves — 60.3% accuracy in the third, 114 seconds of control, and a Round 3 knockout eight months ago.

83%

of Krylov's UFC submission attempts fire in Round 1 — 0% in Round 3

Precedent, on this exact floor

The Guskov Shadow, in the Same Room

On July 26, 2025 at Etihad Arena, Bogdan Guskov knocked Krylov out with punches at 4:18 of Round 1 — same arena, similar opponent profile: a hard-hitting younger light heavyweight who does not need many attempts. The raw round data is stark. Guskov landed 23 of 43 with a knockdown; Krylov landed 16 of 34 with zero control time and zero submission attempts. He never reached one of his preferred phases. Yakhyaev is a more complete version of that opponent with a genuine choke game bolted on, and the single most likely sequence in this fight is a rerun of that one.

4:18

Round 1 knockout of Krylov in this building, July 26, 2025

The asymmetry that governs the whole page

Three Minutes and Thirty-Three Seconds

Yakhyaev's three UFC fights lasted 0:33, 2:52 and 0:08. Add his Contender Series bout and the stat pool totals 4:03, which is exactly how the published average fight time of 1:01 reconciles. That is the entire evidentiary base. Our lean is not built on knowing what he is; it is built on knowing what Krylov has become.

4:03

of cage time behind every published Yakhyaev rate

Distrust both columns

The Rate-vs-Reality Disconnect Runs Both Ways

Krylov's rates flatter him: 2.75 absorbed per minute (3rd-lowest of 26), a 1.79 damage ratio (3rd of 26) and the second-best submission rate in the division read like a top-five light heavyweight, attached to a man who is 1-3, because those averages span thirteen years and cannot see the last sixteen months. Yakhyaev's flatter him more absurdly still: an 8.64 SLpM and an 11.11 TD/15 describe a superhuman, and what they actually encode is four minutes of a man finishing overmatched opponents. Read the logs instead of the columns — a declining veteran with real weapons against an unbeaten finisher with no measurable ceiling.

The input most likely to be wrong

The 105-Day Question

From July 11, 2026 — Whittaker, TKO by jaw injury, hospital scan — to October 24, 2026 is 105 days. No fracture was confirmed and Krylov was released the same night, so this is not a catastrophic-injury story. But it is a third stoppage loss in sixteen months, absorbed to the head, on a fifteen-week turnaround, at 34. It is the most defensible single reason to fade a man whose underlying rates otherwise still look top-ten, and it is also the input most likely to be wrong: the Bukauskas knockout proves he had at least one more big night in him after the Reyes and Guskov stoppages.

The Five-Round Clock

Nikita Krylov danger windowAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The largest bucket in the fight

Roughly 47% of all outcomes are priced here. Krylov has ended six UFC fights in Round 1 and been ended in Round 1 five times; Yakhyaev has finished eight of ten opponents in the opening five minutes and has never once been in trouble there. Both of Krylov's live routes to a win — the clinch knockout and the early submission — exist only in this round.

Critical Insight
The longer this lasts, the more it becomes Krylov's fight — and the less likely it is to last at all. Neither man has been to a scorecard since October 2022 (Krylov, against Oezdemir) and January 2023 (Yakhyaev, at regional level), and between them the last eight fights contain seven stoppages inside three rounds and one stoppage-by-withdrawal. The finish-threat curve below is UFC-scoped for both men so the comparison is like-for-like: six of Krylov's twelve UFC wins ended in Round 1, three in Round 2 and one in Round 3, while all three of Yakhyaev's UFC wins ended in the first — on a sample of three.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Krylov has been stopped by strikes three times in sixteen months — Reyes 2:24, Guskov 4:18 in this exact arena, Whittaker 1:01 of the third with a jaw that needed a scan — and returns 105 days later at 34. That trajectory, not anything measured about his opponent, is what makes him an underdog.

Yakhyaev has 3 minutes 33 seconds of total Octagon time. Every rate beside his name — 8.64 SLpM, 11.11 TD/15, 7.41 Sub/15, 100% takedown defence — is extrapolated from about four minutes, and none of it is used in our composites. What is real about him is 10-0, nine finishes, eight of them in Round 1.

Model: Yakhyaev 62% / Krylov 38%, conviction 6/10, flagged high-risk. The composites finish dead level at ~57.25 apiece and we are overriding them, which is exactly why the number is a lean and not a verdict — and why Krylov by submission at our fair +488 is the standout price on the page.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Krylov Decision — 6%Krylov Submission — 17%Krylov KO/TKO — 15%Yakhyaev KO/TKO — 29%Yakhyaev Decision — 7%Yakhyaev Submission — 26%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Nikita Krylov gold · Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Krylov's chin trajectory

Stopped by strikes in three of his last four — Reyes R1 2:24, Guskov R1 4:18, Whittaker R3 1:01 — against zero career knockdowns absorbed by Yakhyaev. This single input drives the largest bucket on the page and every other variable is secondary to it.

Yakhyaev's Round-1 finishing density

Eight of ten career wins in the first round, three UFC finishes at 0:33, 2:52 and 0:08, and three knockdowns across four appearances. It maps almost exactly onto the five minutes in which Krylov has been stopped five times.

Krylov's submission equity, and its timer

A 1.14 submission rate against a 0.27 divisional baseline, sixteen career submissions and 2nd of 26 in the ranked pool — but 83% of those attempts confined to Round 1 and none ever in Round 3. It is the biggest edge in the fight and it has a five-minute fuse.

The takedown-defence hole

Krylov defends 22 of 47 (53%), against a fighter who is three for four on UFC entries and whose signature is hurt-takedown-back-choke. Błachowicz has already finished Krylov with an arm-triangle from back control.

Sample-size uncertainty, turnaround and venue

Every published Yakhyaev rate derives from 4:03, so his second and third rounds are effectively unmodelled; Krylov arrives 105 days after a jaw-injury knockout at 34, in the arena where Guskov knocked him out fifteen months ago, while Yakhyaev arrives 119 days after an eight-second win at 25.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Guskov 2.0, Same Room

Yakhyaev lands clean inside the opening five minutes on a chin that has failed three times since April 2025, and finishes it on the floor before Krylov ever reaches the clinch or a neck. It has already happened in this building, at 4:18 of the first, fifteen months ago.

Scripted outcomes for Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nikita Krylov win probability

15%

17%

KO/TKODECSUB

Fifteen points. The clinch knockout that ended Alexander Gustafsson in 67 seconds and the late detonation that ended Modestas Bukauskas at 4:57 of the third are both live and both recent. His power did not leave with his chin — 13 career knockouts, two of them head kicks in under 41 seconds.
Six points, and every one of them earned in the third round. He has two UFC decision wins, both against real light heavyweights, and his accuracy climbs to 60.3% in a round Yakhyaev has never visited. But only 13% of simulations reach a card at all.
Seventeen points, our most contrarian number, and we are comfortable with it. A 1.14 submission rate against a 0.27 divisional baseline is a fourfold edge; sixteen career submissions; a triangle finish from bottom guard on his record; and an opponent who has never had a submission attempted on him in the Octagon. If Yakhyaev shoots cold, this is how the upset happens.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev win probability

29%

26%

KO/TKODECSUB

The single largest bucket in the fight, and it is driven by one number rather than by hype: Krylov has been stopped by strikes three times in sixteen months, including in this exact arena. Yakhyaev's eight-second knockout of Julius Walker — a rostered UFC light heavyweight — is the shape of it.
Seven points, and the prop to avoid entirely. He has exactly one decision in ten professional fights, three and a half years ago, over five rounds at regional level. This fight ending on cards at all is a 13% event.
Twenty-six points, nearly as large as the knockout bucket. His finishing profile is genuinely dual-path — four knockouts and five submissions — and the Cerqueira sequence of hurt, takedown, back, rear-naked choke in 33 seconds is the cleanest available route through a 53% takedown defence and a back that Błachowicz has already choked.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Abdul

Nikita

29-28 Yakhyaev

He banks the first two on damage and entries, then survives a third he has never seen

The most likely card in the 13% of fights that reach them

29-28 Krylov

He weathers Round 1, wins the clinch exchanges in the second and takes the third at 60.3% accuracy

Nearly as likely — the decision bucket splits 7-6, not 10-3

30-27 Yakhyaev

Krylov never lands the clinch and never gets a neck

The least likely of the three — sustained one-way dominance is not this matchup's shape

Model and price

Nikita Krylov

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Nikita Krylov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Krylov by submission at our fair +488 is the standout. The market, whenever it arrives, will price this fight almost entirely off Krylov's three knockouts in sixteen months and Yakhyaev's eight-second highlight, and will almost certainly under-price a 1.14 submission rate against a 0.27 divisional baseline, sixteen career submissions and a documented triangle finish from bottom guard, against a young grappler who has never had a choke attempted on him. The structural chalk is fight does not go the distance, which our model puts at 87% (fair −669): two men who have collectively reached a scorecard five times in fifty-three professional fights. Fight ends in Round 1 at our 47% (fair +113) is the cleanest single expression of the whole thesis, with Round 2 at 24% (+317) and Round 3 at 16% (+525) behind it. Yakhyaev inside the distance is 55% (fair −122), split 29% by knockout (+245) and 26% by submission (+285); Krylov inside the distance is 32% (+213). Avoid Yakhyaev by decision entirely at 7% — he has one career decision, three years ago, at regional level. Every percentage and price in this paragraph is our own model's; none of them is a sportsbook quote.

Conviction

6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A clear directional lean built on documented evidence — three stoppage losses in sixteen months, a nine-year age gap, a 105-day turnaround from a jaw injury — held back to a 6 because the composites finish dead level at ~57.25 each, because every verified statistical marker in the fight belongs to Krylov, and because the favourite's entire professional case rests on 3 minutes and 33 seconds of Octagon evidence. The whole projection is flagged high-risk on data grounds. Lean: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.

What backs the lean

Krylov stopped by strikes in three of his last four — Reyes R1 2:24, Guskov R1 4:18, Whittaker R3 1:01 with a damaged jaw. A trajectory, not a slump.
Nine years younger with zero career damage: 10-0, never knocked down, never submitted, never visibly hurt on tape.
Round-1 finishing density that maps exactly onto Krylov's most vulnerable window — eight of ten career wins there, against a man stopped in the first five times.
A dual-path threat of four knockouts and five submissions into a 53% takedown defence and a back that has already been choked at UFC level.
The Etihad Arena precedent — Krylov knocked out in this building on July 26, 2025 by a similar opponent profile.
A 105-day turnaround from a knockout that required a hospital jaw scan, at 34 years old.

What limits it

A 1.14 submission rate against a 0.27 divisional baseline — four times the division, 2nd of 26 — with sixteen career submissions and a triangle finish from bottom guard. The most underpriced weapon in the fight.
Every verified statistic is Krylov's: 2.75 absorbed per minute (3rd of 26), a 1.79 damage ratio (3rd of 26), 2.19 takedowns per fifteen (7th of 26), 76.5% clinch accuracy, 81.0% ground accuracy.
The Bukauskas knockout is eight months old — Round 3, 4:57, after losing two rounds. He can still finish a light heavyweight late at this age.
Yakhyaev has 3:33 of Octagon time and has never been past Round 2 in the UFC. His cardio, his chin and his response to adversity are entirely unmeasured.
Krylov's Round 3 is statistically his best round — 60.3% accuracy, 114 seconds of control — and it is precisely the round Yakhyaev has never seen.
The composites tie at ~57.25. We are overriding a level model with judgement, and judgement deserves a discount.

Final Assessment

In roughly 62 of 100 simulations, Abdul Rakhman "The Hunter" Yakhyaev finishes Nikita Krylov inside the distance — most often with strikes in the opening five minutes (29%), against a jaw that has failed three times since April 2025 and in the very building where Bogdan Guskov knocked him out fifteen months ago; nearly as often by choke (26%), following the Cerqueira template of hurt, takedown, back, rear-naked choke through a takedown defence that stops barely half of what comes at it; and only rarely on the cards (7%), because he has needed a scorecard exactly once in ten professional fights and that was at regional level in January 2023.

In the other 38, "The Miner" reminds everyone why he has sixteen career submissions. Seventeen of those fights end with Krylov's neck-hunting — a standing guillotine as the young man shoots cold, or the triangle from bottom guard that finished Ryan Spann and that Yakhyaev has never once had to defend at this level. Fifteen end with Krylov's own power: the fence clinch where he lands at 76.5% and knocked out Alexander Gustafsson in 67 seconds, or the Bukauskas-style detonation at 4:57 of a third round nobody expected him to reach. Six end on cards he has every statistical right to win, in a round where his accuracy climbs to 60.3% and his opponent has never been.

The data gives Krylov the better rates, the deeper submission craft, the harder schedule and the only measured cardio in the fight; it gives Yakhyaev the nine years, the intact chin, the eight-second highlight and an opponent who has been knocked out three times since April 2025. On October 24 at Etihad Arena we take the unbeaten 25-year-old to finish it early — and we hold the position loosely, because a man with 3:33 of Octagon time is being asked to solve a neck-hunter who has ended sixteen careers, and forty-seven of our hundred fights are over before the first horn.

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