For a decade Stephen Thompson's fights were about whether opponents could solve the karate — the side-on stance, the distance, the kicks. His recent losses were about something else. Gabriel Bonfim landed five takedowns and took a split decision while trailing 42–40 on significant strikes. Joaquin Buckley landed four, trailed 49–34 and knocked him out in the third. Shavkat Rakhmonov took his back and choked him. At 43, and sixteen months removed from his last fight, Thompson still wins the striking; he has stopped winning the rest.
Charles Radtke is a welterweight whose UFC wins came in two forms: fast knockouts of Gilbert Urbina and Matthew Semelsberger, and long grinding fights against Mike Mathetha, Daniel Frunza and Francisco Prado in which he spent between nine and twelve minutes in control. He has never been taken down in the UFC. He has, however, been knocked out twice when he stood with better strikers.
That makes the early takedown attempts the whole fight. If Thompson keeps it at range, his volume and length should carry the rounds, and Radtke's chin is exposed. If Radtke gets him down early, the fight becomes the kind Thompson has lost three times running. The lean stays with the better striker, 57 to 43, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.