Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Stephen Thompson — Welterweight fighter

Stephen Thompson

“Wonderboy”
17W9L1D
Karate Range
VS
Charles Radtke — Welterweight fighter

Charles Radtke

“Chuck”
12W5L
Wrestle / Choke

Three-fight skid against a wrestler who needs the fence, not the kick count

WelterweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Wonderboy's +3" reach and karate in a 30-foot cage against a wrestler on a two-fight streak — style bet on a 43-year-old who has lost three in a row since December 2022.

Paths that change the fight

  • Stephen ThompsonUse the 75-inch reach and the 30-foot cage, land the karate side kick, and do not accept the fence cycles that decided Bonfim and Buckley. Three rounds means he does not get the fifth he used to have. He also does not need it if the fight stays upright. His submission rate is 0.0. The win is strikes or a decision.
  • Charles RadtkeWrestle early, the way the Prado and Frunza fights were won, and do not stand in the pocket that Malott ended in 26 seconds. A rear-naked choke is on the log. A boring decision on top also wins.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Thompson is 43 and has lost three in a row
  • Bonfim and Buckley both beat him with takedowns. Radtke's rate is 1.99

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Stephen Thompson

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote—

Charles Radtke

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines and fight logs were compiled September 22, 2026. TD Acc is Thompson 35% / Radtke 44% — do not swap. Per-round strike tables omitted. Hooper is not in this fight. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are editorial estimates, not observed outcomes. Unavailable measurements are not zeros.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson is 17-9-1, fight-night age 43, orthodox, 6'0" with a 75" reach. Rate line: 4.05 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 54% striking defence, 3.00 SApM, 0.23 TD/15 at 35%, 63% takedown defence and 0.0 Sub/15. He has lost three in a row: a split decision to Gabriel Bonfim, a knockout to Joaquin Buckley, and a rear-naked choke to Shavkat Rakhmonov. Charles "Chuck" Radtke is 12-5. An older listing uses the nickname Chuck Buffalo; the card says Chuck. Fight-night age 36, orthodox, 5'9" with a 72" reach. Rate line: 2.50 SLpM, 53% accuracy, 54% striking defence, 2.45 SApM, 1.99 TD/15 at 44%, 100% takedown defence and 0.5 Sub/15. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Thompson 57% / Radtke 43% at conviction 4 / 10.

Stephen Thompson
Attribute
Charles Radtke
43
Age
Feb 11, 1983 vs Jul 9, 199036
6'0"+3" Thompson
Height
5'9"
75"+3" Thompson
Reach
72"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
#33
Card Rank
#38
56
Announced SOS
21
22
UFC Sample
7
Karate range striker
Fighting Style
Wrestle to decision or choke

Thompson is +3" in height and +3" in reach. He is also seven years older and on a three-fight skid in which the last two opponents took him down five times and four times. Radtke's game is the takedown, at a normal rate, with a chin that Mike Malott and Carlos Prates have already found. The pair is a large UFC sample.

Venue Factor
Thirty feet is Wonderboy's cage when the kick is the fight. It is less help once Radtke gets a body lock. Bonfim landed five takedowns in a split decision. The space did not save the minutes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Stephen Thompson

Stephen Thompson

Pro Record
17-9-1
UFC Record
22 sample-file bouts
Streak
Three straight losses — Bonfim SD, Buckley KO, Rakhmonov RNC
Finish Rate
Last win was Holland corner stoppage R4; recent log is losses
Avg Fight Time
Bonfim went the distance; Buckley R3; Rakhmonov late R2; Holland needed round four
Chin · Stopped by Buckley; submitted by Rakhmonov; competitive on strikes against Bonfim and BuckleySOS · Announced 56Aging Karate Striker

Thompson's last win on the verified log is the corner stoppage of Kevin Holland at 5:00 of round four on December 3, 2022. Everything since is a loss. Against Bonfim the significant strikes were 42-40 and the takedowns were 0-5. Against Buckley, 49-34 and 0-4, and he was still stopped. He can win the punch count and lose the fight.

Charles Radtke

Charles Radtke

Pro Record
12-5-0
UFC Record
7 sample-file bouts
Streak
Two straight wins — Prado decision and Frunza choke — after Malott KO loss
Finish Rate
Recent mix of decision, choke, and early KO wins and losses
Avg Fight Time
Prado went three; Frunza R3 choke; Malott 0:26 of R2; Semelsberger 0:51 of R1
Chin · Knocked out by Malott in 26 seconds and by Prates in round oneSOS · Announced 21Wrestler / Occasional Choke

Radtke's last two are wins over Francisco Prado and Daniel Frunza. Prado was 24-29 on strikes with 4 takedowns. Frunza was 31-6 with 3 takedowns and 2 submission attempts. The 100% takedown defence is the printed career cell. Recent rows show him landing takedowns and not being taken down.

Stephen Thompson
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Charles Radtke
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Stephen Thompsonsignature weapons

75-Inch Karate Reach+3" reach in a 30-foot cage — side kick and calf kicks
×0
Holland Corner StoppageProof the kick still finishes people — was a five-round fight; this is three
×1

Charles Radtkesignature weapons

1.99 TD/15Prado 4 takedowns; Frunza 3 — Bonfim template against Wonderboy
×2
Rear-Naked ChokeFrunza R3 4:29 — live at 16% in the simulation
×1

Stephen Thompson

L
Gabriel Bonfim
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
Jul 12, 2025
L
Joaquin Buckley
KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: elite

RR3 (2:17)
Oct 5, 2024
L
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (4:56)
Dec 16, 2023
W
Kevin Holland
TKO — corner stoppage

Opponent context: veteran

RR4 (5:00)
Dec 3, 2022
Pattern

Thompson is 0-3 since December 2022. He out-landed Buckley 49-34 and lost. He was level with Bonfim on strikes and lost the takedown count 0-5.

Charles Radtke

W
Francisco Prado
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
Apr 11, 2026
W
Daniel Frunza
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (4:29)
Nov 1, 2025
L
Mike Malott
KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (0:26)
May 10, 2025
W
Matthew Semelsberger
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (0:51)
Nov 9, 2024
L
Carlos Prates
KO/TKO — knee

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (4:47)
Jun 8, 2024
Pattern

Radtke is 2-1 in his last three, and the loss was a 26-second knockout. Form and résumé point at different men. Hooper is not on this card.

Stephen Thompson

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Charles Radtke

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Thompson's path is strikes or a decision — Sub/15 is 0.0. Radtke does not need Wonderboy's kick count; he needs the shots Bonfim and Buckley already landed. Career method bars are editorial from identity.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorStephenCharles
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Announced 56 — Card ranks #33 vs #38 — harder announced SOS on Thompson's sideAnnounced 21 — Lighter announced SOS; form better than Thompson's three-fight skid
UFC sample22 sample-file bouts7 sample-file bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)2 elite · 2 veteran tier0 elite · 3 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (10 vs 8 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsGabriel Bonfim, Joaquin Buckley, Shavkat RakhmonovFrancisco Prado, Daniel Frunza, Mike Malott
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

0
Stephen
0
Charles

4.05 SLpM, 3.00 SApM, +3" reach. Radtke is more accurate and lands half as much

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

0
Stephen
0
Charles

Thompson 0.23 TD/15 at 35% Acc and 0.0 Sub/15. Radtke 1.99 TD/15 at 44% Acc, Frunza choke, 100% TDD on the sheet

Form

Recent results

0
Stephen
0
Charles

Three-fight skid against two wins

Sample

UFC bouts

0
Stephen
0
Charles

22 UFC bouts against 7. Both past the small-sample line

Overall

Editorial blend

0
Stephen
0
Charles

The kickboxing still grades higher than the recent results

MetricStephenCharles
SLpM4.052.50
Reach75"72"
TD/150.231.99
TD Acc35%44%
UFC Sample227

Archetype Base Rate

Karate Range Striker 57%43% Wrestler / Choke

Editorial prior from length and kickboxing vs three-fight skid and 1.99 TD/15 · Style bet on a veteran who is losing, not a form bet. Conviction held at 4.

Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtke

Welterweight

StatStephenStephen rankDiv avgCharles rankCharles
SLpM4.05———2.50
Str Acc46%———53%
Str Def54%———54%
SApM3.00———2.45
TD/150.23———1.99
TD Acc35%———44%
TD Def63%———100%
Sub/150.0———0.5
Reach75"———72"
Prior UFC bouts22———7
Card rank#33———#38
Statistical Verdict
Defence is a tie at 54%. Thompson lands more, from farther away, and does not wrestle. Radtke lands fewer strikes, completes about two takedowns per 15 minutes at 44% accuracy (Thompson's TD Acc is 35% — do not swap), and has a submission on the recent log. Thompson's 63% takedown defence is the number Bonfim and Buckley already beat often enough to win.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Stephen Thompson

  • Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
  • Thompson's recent losses were not first-minute blowouts — Buckley closed it in round three and Rakhmonov in the last minute of round two. Bonfim went the distance.
  • His last win needed a fourth round and a corner. This booking is three rounds.

Charles Radtke

  • Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
  • Radtke's finishes swing from 0:26 of round two (a loss) and 0:51 of round one (a win) to a choke at 4:29 of round three.
  • He can end a fight immediately and he can be ended immediately.
Critical Insight
Thompson's recent pattern is a striking fight he is competitive in until a wrestler or a power puncher takes it. Radtke's pattern is wrestle to a decision or a late choke, with two recent nights where a single shot ended it the other way.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Stephen · N/ACharles · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceStephen owns it

+3" reach and 30-foot cage — Wonderboy's home

Pocket / ExchangesStephen owns it

Better output — but Buckley and Malott say pockets end fights

ClinchCharles owns it

Body locks into fence cycles

GroundCharles owns it

1.99 TD/15 and Frunza choke vs 0.0 Sub/15

The Deep Read

The better striker has not won since 2022. The wrestler has been knocked out in a round and has also choked a man out in round three. This is a style bet on a veteran who is losing, not a form bet.

Thirty feet is Wonderboy's cage when the kick is the fight. It is less help once Radtke gets a body lock. Bonfim landed five takedowns in a split decision. Thompson out-landed Buckley and still lost.

The karate is still the lean. The three-fight skid is why the wrestler is live. Conviction 4 out of 10. Hooper is not in this fight.

Path to Victory

Stephen Thompson

Use the 75-inch reach and the 30-foot cage, land the karate side kick, and do not accept the fence cycles that decided Bonfim and Buckley. Three rounds means he does not get the fifth he used to have. He also does not need it if the fight stays upright. His submission rate is 0.0. The win is strikes or a decision.

Why they win
01
+3" height and reach

75" karate lane in a 30-foot cage.

02
4.05 SLpM / 3.00 SApM

Best kickboxing on this prelim.

03
22 UFC fights

Including a finish of Kevin Holland.

04
Radtke's chin

Malott 26 seconds; Prates round one — pocket risk for the wrestler.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Outside, calf kicks, side kick

    Circle off the fence. Do not shoot. 0.23 TD/15 at 35% is not a plan.

  2. 2
    Deny body locks

    The fence cycles decided Bonfim and Buckley.

  3. 3
    Win minutes in three

    No fourth-round corner stoppage available here.

Path to Victory

Charles Radtke

Wrestle early, the way the Prado and Frunza fights were won, and do not stand in the pocket that Malott ended in 26 seconds. A rear-naked choke is on the log. A boring decision on top also wins.

Why they win
01
1.99 TD/15 at 44%

Bonfim and Buckley already beat 63% TDD often enough.

02
Recent choke

Frunza rear-naked choke in round three.

03
Seven years younger

36 vs 43 on a three-fight skid.

04
Two-fight win streak

Form points at Radtke; résumé points at Thompson.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Level change early

    Ride, hunt the choke he used on Frunza.

  2. 2
    Avoid the pocket

    A kickboxing round at 2.50 SLpM is Wonderboy's round.

  3. 3
    Decision is enough

    Prado template — boring top control wins.

Danger Zone

How Stephen Thompson loses

  • Bonfim five-takedown cycle — space does not save the minutes.

  • Buckley replication — stopped after winning the punch count.

  • Rakhmonov neck — fence and ride into a choke.

Danger Zone

How Charles Radtke loses

  • Kickboxing round at 2.50 SLpM — Wonderboy's round.

  • Malott pocket — one punch ends the wrestling plan.

  • Stuffed shots at 63% and fifteen minutes of side kicks.

Bonfim and Buckley

Win the Count, Lose the Fight

42-40 strikes and 0-5 takedowns against Bonfim. 49-34 and 0-4 against Buckley, then a knockout. Punch count is not enough.

0-3
since Dec 2022
35% vs 44%

TD Acc Not Swapped

Thompson completes takedowns at 35%. Radtke at 44%. The wrestler's accuracy is higher; Wonderboy's volume of shots is not the story.

1.99
Radtke TD/15
Malott and Buckley

Chin Risk Both Ways

Radtke was knocked out in 26 seconds. Thompson was stopped in round three after winning the strike count. Open space cuts both ways.

Holland template truncated

Three Rounds, Not Five

Last win needed a fourth-round corner stoppage. This booking is three rounds — decision at range is the largest bucket.

30%
Thompson by decision

The Five-Round Clock

Stephen Thompson danger windowCharles Radtke danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Range or shot

Wonderboy's kick lane opens immediately; Radtke must level-change before the side kick banks minutes.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Thompson's equity is upright kickboxing minutes. Radtke's equity grows if the fight becomes Bonfim's five-takedown night.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Thompson's +3" reach and 4.05 SLpM define the lean; the three-fight skid and 1.99 TD/15 define the ceiling.

2

Model: Thompson 57% / Radtke 43%, conviction 4/10 — fair prices −133 / +133. TD Acc Thompson 35% / Radtke 44%. No BetOnline quote on the September 22 board.

3

Best lean: Thompson by decision at 30%. Radtke by submission at 16% is the wrestling overlay.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Thompson KO/TKO — 22%Thompson Decision — 30%Thompson Submission — 5%Radtke KO/TKO — 11%Radtke Decision — 16%Radtke Submission — 16%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Stephen Thompson gold · Charles Radtke orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Length and kickboxing

+3" reach, 4.05 SLpM, 3.00 absorbed — best striking on the prelim.

Three-fight skid

43 years old and 0-3 since Holland — why conviction stops at 4.

1.99 TD/15

Bonfim and Buckley already showed the wrestling path.

Frunza choke

Recent submission win keeps Radtke's 16% sub share live.

Radtke chin

Malott and Prates — pocket risk if he stands with Wonderboy.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Range Minutes

Thompson keeps the fight long, wins the kickboxing, and takes a decision — largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Stephen Thompson win probability
0%
22%
30%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty-two points — Holland damage inside three rounds.

  • Thirty points — largest bucket. Three rounds at range, not a fourth-round corner stoppage.

  • Five points — token. The rate is 0.0.

Charles Radtke win probability
0%
11%
16%
16%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eleven points — live because Buckley already did it; not the main path.

  • Sixteen points — Prado path on top control.

  • Sixteen points — Frunza choke path, split evenly with decision.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Stephen
R2
Charles
R3
Stephen
29-28 Thompson
Two kickboxing rounds; one wrestling round for Radtke
Primary path inside Thompson's 30% decision share
29-28 Radtke
Takedown minutes without a finish
Inside Radtke's 16% decision bucket
30-27 Thompson
Full fifteen at the end of 75 inches
Live if shots are stuffed cleanly

Model and price

Stephen Thompson

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Charles Radtke

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Stephen Thompson

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Charles Radtke

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Thompson by decision at 30% (fair +233). Radtke by submission at 16% (fair +525) is the wrestling overlay if a price appears. Fight goes the distance 46% (fair +117); does not go the distance 54% (fair −117).

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The karate is still the lean. The three-fight skid is why the wrestler is live. Conviction 4/10. Lean: Stephen Thompson.

What backs the lean

  • +3" reach, 4.05 SLpM, 3.00 absorbed, the best kickboxing on this prelim

  • 22 UFC fights, including a finish of Kevin Holland

  • A 30-foot cage

  • Radtke has been knocked out by Malott in 26 seconds and by Prates in round one

What limits it

  • Thompson is 43 and has lost three in a row

  • Bonfim and Buckley both beat him with takedowns. Radtke's rate is 1.99

  • The Frunza choke is a recent submission win

  • 63% takedown defence has not been enough

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 readings, Stephen Thompson keeps the fight long, wins the kickboxing minutes, and takes a decision (30%) or a KO/TKO (22%). The submission share is 5%. Holland is the finish template. It was a five-round fight. This is not.

In the other 43, Charles Radtke lands the shots Bonfim landed and wins a decision (16%) or the choke (16%) he used on Frunza. The knockout share is 11%.

Thompson 57 / Radtke 43, conviction 4 out of 10. The karate is still the lean. The three-fight skid is why the wrestler is live.

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