1-4 UFC volume against a 10-0 finisher with six inches of reach.
Fight overview
Hasan is favored on reach, age, finish rate and Gurule's 1-4 UFC log. Conviction stays at 4 because Hasan's entire Octagon file is one knockout. Gurule's path is a long volume fight the debutant has not had to win in the UFC.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Rate lines were compiled September 22, 2026. Gurule 11-4-0 (Tsuruya, Barez, Coria, Aguilar, Osbourne). Hasan 10-0-0 (1 NC). A printed 0% takedown defence for Hasan is unmeasured — the two logged fights show no opponent takedown attempts — and is not used as a defence rate. Contender Series excluded from UFC bout count. Per-round tables omitted. No BetOnline price. Fair American from 58/42: Hasan −138, Gurule +138. Projections are editorial.
Model methodologyWhat this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
Three-round flyweight bout on the main card at Madison Square Garden, 30-foot cage. Luis "Grim" Gurule is on the announced sheet at 11-4, rank #37, age 32. An older listing still printed 11-3 on September 22, 2026, while the fight log shows he was submitted by Rei Tsuruya on May 30, 2026. This page uses 11-4. His rate line is 5.44 SLpM, 43% accuracy, 57% striking defence, 5.35 SApM, 0.64 TD/15, 15% takedown accuracy and 0.2 Sub/15, across five UFC bouts scored 1-4. Bilal "The IndoNinja" Hasan is 10-0 (1 NC), card rank #39, age 25, one UFC fight: a Round-2 knockout of Nilson Rojas on August 29, 2026. His one-fight line is 9.01 SLpM, 47% accuracy, 50% striking defence, 4.38 SApM and 3.65 knockdowns per 15. No BetOnline price was posted. Editorial read: Hasan 58%, Gurule 42%, conviction 4 out of 10.
Hasan is +2" in height and +6" in reach. Gurule is the wrestler by background (Colorado state champion, D2). His UFC rate line does not look like a wrestler's: 0.64 TD/15 and 90% of his strikes standing. Hasan has one UFC fight. Gurule has five. The pair is a small UFC sample because Hasan is under three Octagon bouts.
Venue FactorThe 30-foot cage gives the longer man room. Gurule's path is to close six inches of reach. Hasan's path is to keep the Rojas distance, where he already knocked a man out in his debut.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
Reading the official results, not a misleading Win tag: lost to Ode' Osbourne (strikes, R2 1:54, debut), lost a decision to Jesus Aguilar, lost a decision to Alden Coria, beat Daniel Barez by decision, then was rear-naked choked by Rei Tsuruya in round one. The UFC sample is a man who can win a decision and who is getting finished and outpointed around it.
UFC log is one knockout, Rojas, Round 2, 2:28. Contender Series stoppage of Mridul Saikia in 45 seconds is not a UFC bout. Eight of ten pro wins are knockouts. He has been to a decision once.
Opponent context: ranked
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: ufc
1-4 in the UFC. Fought three times in 2026 and went 1-2, with the loss a first-round choke two weeks after a decision win. Form does not favor him. Sample size does.
Opponent context: ufc
Hasan does not have five UFC fights. Inventing regional lines as if they were round-timed UFC results would be false. One UFC date ended in a knockout. Form favors the debutant. Sample size does not.
Critical InsightMethod charts: Gurule 5 KO / 1 Sub / 5 Dec of 11; Hasan 8 / 1 / 1 of 10. Arithmetic: 5+1+5=11 and 8+1+1=10. Round bars are sparse — Gurule's named UFC win is a decision; Hasan's only UFC finish is round two.
| Opponent | Luis | Bilal |
|---|---|---|
| No shared opponent on the verified logs | Last result: L vs Rei Tsuruya, RNC R1 3:19 | Only UFC result: W vs Nilson Rojas, KO/TKO R2 2:28 |
| Comparison is reach, finish rate and Gurule's 1-4 UFC sample. | ||
Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Gurule 5.44 / 43% / 57% def / 5.35 absorbed / 0.00 KD. Hasan 9.01 / 47% / 50% def / 4.38 absorbed / 3.65 KD, one fight.
Gurule has a wrestling past and 60% TDD. The UFC line is 0.64 TD/15. Hasan's TDDef is unpublished / unmeasured.
(Striking + Grappling) / 2
Editorial average.
Gurule has been stopped and submitted in five UFC fights. Hasan is 10-0 and untouched in that sense, on a tiny clock.
Reach, age, finish rate, and Gurule's 1-4 UFC log.
| Metric | Luis | Bilal |
|---|---|---|
| Striking accuracy | 43% | 47% |
| Standing / clinch / ground | 90% / 9% / 1% | 58% / 11% / 31% |
| Average fight time | 11:42 | 4:07 |
| UFC bouts | 5 | 1 |
| UFC record | 1-4 | 1-0 |
Editorial read of this booking, not an archetype database row · The lean is toward the finisher with the reach, at low conviction, because the finisher's entire Octagon file is one night.
| Stat | Luis | Luis rank | Div avg | Bilal rank | Bilal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 5.44 | — | — | — | 9.01 |
| Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise. | 43% | — | — | — | 47% |
| Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit. | 57% | — | — | — | 50% |
| SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better. | 5.35 | — | — | — | 4.38 |
| TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine. | 0.64 | — | — | — | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 15% | — | — | — | 100% (n=1 Rojas) |
| TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed. | 60% | — | — | — | Unmeasured |
| Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat. | 0.2 | — | — | — | 0.0 |
| KD/15 | 0.00 | — | — | — | 3.65 |
| Card rank | #37 | — | — | — | #39 |
Statistical VerdictGurule is a high-volume, high-absorption flyweight who does not knock people down in the UFC. Hasan's numbers are a highlight reel from one night. The durable comparison is the reach and the loss column, not 9.01 versus 5.44 as if both were stable career rates.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightIf Hasan wins by knockout, round two is the Rojas template. If Gurule wins, it is usually a decision after surviving the early power — the Barez path.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
+6" reach and the Rojas distance game in a 30-foot cage.
Gurule absorbs 5.35. Hasan's 3.65 KD/15 is a one-fight number but the chin matchup is real.
Wrestling background if Gurule actually uses it — UFC rate is only 0.64 TD/15.
Hasan 31% ground strikes after knockdowns. Gurule is 1% ground. If Gurule gets dropped, the ground share belongs to Hasan.
Gurule's UFC identity is absorbing 5.35 per minute and going 1-4. Hasan's UFC identity is one knockout with a cartoon knockdown rate. The lean is toward the finisher with the reach, at low conviction, because the finisher's entire Octagon file is one night.
Gurule is 90% standing. Hasan is 58% standing and 31% ground, which fits a knockdown into a finish. Gurule does not have a ground striking game on the sheet (1%).
Make it ugly and long. His one UFC win was a decision. His volume is real. Hasan's 4:07 average says the debutant has not had to win a third round in the UFC.
Five UFC fights against one.
5.44 SLpM is not a one-fight spike.
If he actually uses it — the UFC rate is 0.64 TD/15.
50% striking defence and 4.38 absorbed in the win.
Level changes he has not been using at 0.64 per 15, pressure, make the 30-foot cage feel smaller.
Get past the Rojas window into a third-round volume fight.
Stay long, use the 70-inch reach, and find the chin that Osbourne already found. Do not turn it into a fifteen-minute volume fight if the knockout is there in round two, which is when Rojas ended.
+6" reach, +2" height, age 25 versus 32.
10-0 with eight knockout wins.
1-4 and just submitted.
Rojas in round two, plus a 45-second Contender Series stoppage.
Teep and the long shot. Do not clinch into a former state wrestler for free.
The Rojas finish did not need the third round.
A kickboxing fight at a six-inch reach deficit becomes the Osbourne fight again.
He gets dropped and Hasan's 31% ground share finishes it.
Power fades and Gurule's volume steals a Barez-style decision.
He clinches into a former state wrestler for free.
Gurule five UFC bouts (1-4), Hasan one. Pair reliability is small. 3.65 knockdowns per 15 is not a stable number.
5.44 SLpM and 5.35 SApM. He lands a lot and eats a lot. Accuracy is 43%.
A printed 0% takedown defence for Hasan is unmeasured. Logged fights show no opponent attempts.
Contender Series ended at 0:45. Gurule was submitted in round one by Tsuruya.
Critical InsightThree rounds. Hasan's finish equity is early. Gurule's upset is surviving into a volume decision.
Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.
One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction
Hasan 58 / Gurule 42. The lean is reach, age, finish rate and Gurule's 1-4 UFC log — capped hard by a one-fight sample.
Hasan by KO/TKO at 40% is the largest bucket. Gurule by decision at 18% is the live contrarian.
No BetOnline price. Fair odds: Hasan −138 / Gurule +138. Gurule's record is 11-4 (an older listing still showed 11-3).
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Luis Gurule gold · Bilal Hasan orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
Six inches and seven years favor Hasan.
3.65 KD/15 and 9.01 SLpM will not survive unchanged — conviction stays at 4.
Absorbs 5.35 and was just submitted.
Gurule's only UFC win was fifteen minutes. Hasan averages 4:07.
Hasan stays long and finishes by KO/TKO — the largest single bucket and the only UFC template he has.
Scripted outcomes for Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan — how each version of this fight unfolds.
Five career knockouts, zero UFC knockdowns. Possible, not the Octagon identity.
The Barez path — if Hasan's power fades after the first exchange.
One career submission win and he was just choked. Low.
Largest bucket. Eight of ten wins, and the only UFC result.
Only if Gurule survives and loses minutes. Hasan has one career decision.
One career RNC and 0.00 Sub/15 in the UFC. Low.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Analyst prop read
No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.
Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.
| Prop | Reference quote | Implied % | Model % | Fair decimal odds | Difference (pp) | Estimated EV | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight does not go the distance | -233Fair odds | 70.0% | 70% | 1.43 | +0.0 | +0.0% | Fair price |
| Gurule by decision | +456Fair odds | 18.0% | 18% | 5.56 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Gurule by KO/TKO | +456Fair odds | 18.0% | 18% | 5.56 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Hasan by KO/TKO | +150Fair odds | 40.0% | 40% | 2.50 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Fair price |
| Hasan by decision | +733Fair odds | 12.0% | 12% | 8.33 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Fight goes the distance | +233Fair odds | 30.0% | 30% | 3.33 | -0.0 | -0.1% | Fair price |
Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
Best lean: Hasan by KO/TKO at 40%. Gurule by decision at 18% is the live contrarian if the debutant's power does not travel. No market line to call an overlay.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
A soft lean. Reach, finish rate and Gurule's 1-4 UFC log carry Hasan to 58. A one-fight rate line and Gurule's real volume cap conviction at 4 out of 10. Lean: Bilal Hasan.
Six inches of reach and a seven-year age edge
10-0 with eight knockout wins
A UFC debut that ended in a round-two knockout
Gurule is 1-4 in the UFC, absorbs 5.35 per minute, and was submitted in his last fight
Five UFC fights against a one-fight rate line
Real volume at 5.44 SLpM
Hasan absorbed 4.38 and defended at 50% in the only Octagon look
A decision win over Barez shows Gurule can survive fifteen minutes
3.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes is not a stable number
In roughly 58 of 100 readings, Bilal Hasan uses the reach and the knockout habit and wins by KO/TKO (40%), with a small decision share (12%) and a small submission share (6%). The Rojas fight is the template. It is also the only template.
In the other 42, Luis Gurule makes it a volume fight, wins a decision (18%) or finds a knockout of his own (18%) that his UFC knockdown rate has not shown yet. The submission branch is 6% and runs against the fact that he was the one choked in May.
Hasan 58 / Gurule 42, conviction 4 out of 10. The finisher with the reach is the lean. The sample is too short to treat it as a pick with teeth. Gurule is 11-4 on this page; an older listing still read 11-3. Hasan's printed 0% takedown defence is unmeasured.
