Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Luis Gurule

“Grim”

11W4L

Late-surging volume boxer

Bilal Hasan

“The IndoNinja”

10W0L

Taekwondo finisher

A 1-4 UFC grinder against an unbeaten finisher with six inches of reach.

FlyweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Gurule is a slow starter who finds his rhythm late, landing far more in third rounds than in openers. Hasan does his damage early, attacking the body and finishing most of his fights before the final round, as he did in his UFC debut. The fight is a race between Hasan's early power and Gurule's habit of getting going only after he has taken damage.

Paths that change the fight

Luis GuruleGet through round one without giving up the body shots or the takedown, then build volume as he always does and take the second and third rounds on output, the way he beat Barez 73-51 in the third.
Bilal HasanUse six inches of reach and the body attack to win round one clearly, then finish before the third, when Gurule's output peaks.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Five UFC fights against one
Gurule's output rises every round, to 44.3 landed in the third

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Luis Gurule

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: +600 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Bilal Hasan

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: -900 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities and fair prices (Hasan −138, Gurule +138) are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round flyweight bout on the main card in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Luis "Grim" Gurule (11-4, age 32) is 1-4 in the UFC: a knockout loss to Ode' Osbourne, decision losses to Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria, a decision win over Daniel Barez, and a first-round submission loss to Rei Tsuruya two weeks later. Across five UFC fights he lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.65, and he has out-landed his opponent in five of 12 rounds. Bilal "The IndoNinja" Hasan (10-0, 1 NC, age 25) knocked out Nilson Rojas in round two of his UFC debut on August 29, 2026, 18 days after a 45-second Contender Series stoppage. He is 5'7" with a 70-inch reach, six inches longer than Gurule's. The market for this bout has not opened. Our read: Hasan 58%, Gurule 42%, conviction 4 out of 10.

Luis Gurule

Attribute

Bilal Hasan

Age

7-year gap25

5'5"

Height

+2" Hasan5'7"

64"

Reach

+6" Hasan70"

38"

Leg Reach

+0.5" Hasan38.5"

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

Good Guys MMA

Team

Charlie's Combat Club

Apr 5, 2025

Octagon Debut

Aug 29, 2026

UFC bouts

#37 flyweight

Card rank

#39 flyweight

Volume boxer, former state wrestling champion

Fighting Style

Taekwondo (third-degree black belt)

Hasan is +2" in height and +6" in reach. Gurule turns 33 two days after the fight; Hasan is 25. Gurule was a Colorado state wrestling champion, but in the UFC he fights almost entirely on the feet: 90% of his significant strikes land at distance. Gurule has five UFC fights and 12 UFC rounds; Hasan has one fight and seven and a half minutes.

Venue Factor
The 30-foot cage gives the longer man room to work at range. Gurule has been out-landed at distance in most of his UFC fights, and his best rounds have come late, when opponents slow down and he can walk forward.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Luis Gurule

Pro Record

11-4-0

UFC Record

1-4 in five UFC bouts, plus a Contender Series win

Streak

Submitted by Rei Tsuruya in round one, two weeks after a decision win over Daniel Barez

Finish Rate

55% of wins (6 of 11) — 5 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

11:03

Chin · Knocked down and stopped once in the UFC (Osbourne, round two). Opponents land 5.65 significant strikes per minute on him.SOS · DevelopingVolume boxer, slow starter

Gurule, a Colorado state wrestling champion, turned pro in 2022, won the Fury FC flyweight title and earned his UFC contract with a split decision over Nick Piccininni on the Contender Series in October 2024. His UFC run has been hard. Ode' Osbourne knocked him down and stopped him in round two of his debut; Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria out-landed him over three rounds; he beat Daniel Barez 149-113 on significant strikes for his first UFC win; and two weeks later Rei Tsuruya took him down and choked him in 3:19. Across five UFC fights he has been out-landed 312 to 277.

Bilal Hasan

Pro Record

10-0-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

1-0 — knockout of Nilson Rojas, plus a Contender Series stoppage

Streak

10-0 (1 NC); CFFC flyweight champion with three title defences before the UFC

Finish Rate

90% of wins (9 of 10) — 8 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

7:28

Chin · Never finished as a pro and not knocked down in his UFC debut, though Rojas landed 33 significant strikes on him in 7:28.SOS · ProspectTaekwondo-based finisher

Hasan started taekwondo at five and is a third-degree black belt. He went 8-0 (1 NC) on the regional scene, winning the CFFC flyweight title and defending it three times — a fourth-round stoppage of Jason Eastman among them — then stopped Mridul Saikia in 45 seconds on the Contender Series on August 11, 2026. Eighteen days later he made his UFC debut: he out-landed Nilson Rojas 38-17 in round one with a takedown and 1:03 of control, then knocked him out at 2:28 of round two. Eight of his ten wins are knockouts, several of them to the body, and only one went the distance.

Luis Gurule

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Bilal Hasan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Luis Gurulesignature weapons

Punches, knees and elbowsFive stoppages before the UFC, three of them in round one

×5

Arm-triangleJacob Silva, round four, for the Fury FC title

×1

Bilal Hasansignature weapons

PunchesRojas (R2 2:28) in the UFC; Hauser and Manse were stopped with body punches

×5

KicksSpinning wheel kick (Romano), front kick to the body (Eastman), body kick (Ortega)

×3

Rear-naked chokeJose Leon, round two

×1

Luis Gurule

Rei Tsuruya

Submission — neck crank

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (3:19)

UFC — May 30, 2026

Daniel Barez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC — May 16, 2026

Alden Coria

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC — Feb 21, 2026

Jesus Aguilar

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC — Sep 13, 2025

Ode' Osbourne

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (1:54)

UFC — Apr 5, 2025

Pattern

1-4 across the last five, all in the UFC. The three decisions went the full fifteen minutes, and Gurule won the third round in two of them. Both stoppage losses came early: round two against Osbourne and round one against Tsuruya.

Bilal Hasan

Nilson Rojas

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (2:28)

UFC — Aug 29, 2026

Mridul Saikia

KO — punch

R1 (1:42)

Dana White's Contender Series 67 — Aug 11, 2026

Renaldy Manse

TKO — punch to the body

R1 (2:15)

Cage Fury FC 149 — Dec 20, 2025

Jason Eastman

TKO — front kick to body and punches

R4 (3:45)

Cage Fury FC 143 — Jun 6, 2025

Brian Hauser

KO — punch to the body

R2 (1:18)

Cage Fury FC 139 — Feb 1, 2025

Pattern

5-0 across the last five, all stoppages, two of them in round one. He has fought twice in 2026, 18 days apart in August.

Luis Gurule

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Bilal Hasan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Gurule's 11 wins split evenly between stoppages and decisions: five KO/TKO, one arm-triangle and five decisions, including his UFC win over Barez. Hasan has eight knockouts, one rear-naked choke and a single decision, and eight of his nine stoppages came in the first two rounds.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Luis	Bilal
No shared opponents	Last result: L vs Rei Tsuruya, rear-naked choke R1 3:19	Only UFC result: W vs Nilson Rojas, KO R2 2:28
The comparison is reach, early finishing power and Gurule's late output.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Luis

Bilal

Gurule lands 5.02 per minute at 41% and absorbs 5.65 across five UFC fights. Hasan landed 7.10 per minute at 41% with a knockdown in his one UFC fight.

Grappling

Luis

Bilal

Gurule has a wrestling background and 73% takedown defence, but has landed only 3 of 17 UFC takedowns. Hasan landed his only UFC attempt; nobody has tried to take him down in the UFC.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Luis

Bilal

Average of the two gauges.

Metric	Luis	Bilal
Avg fight time	11:03 (5 UFC bouts)	7:28 (1 UFC bout)
Rounds out-landed	5 of 12	1 of 2
Round 1 landed / absorbed	11.2 / 20.2	38 / 17
Standing / clinch / ground	90% / 9% / 1%	72% / 15% / 13%
Knockdowns dealt / absorbed	0 / 1	1 / 0

Archetype Base Rate

Late-surging volume boxer 42%58% Early finisher with reach

Model read for this matchup · The lean goes to the finisher with the reach, at low conviction, because his entire UFC record is one fight.

Luis GuruleBilal Hasan

Flyweight

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Luis	Luis comparison	Div avg	Bilal comparison	Bilal
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.02	+1.39 vs avg	3.63	+3.47 vs avgfew UFC fights	7.10
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	41%	-6.40 pp vs avg	47.4%	-6.40 pp vs avg	41%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	57%	+3.80 pp vs avg	53.2%	-3.20 pp vs avg	50%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.65	+2.17 vs avg	3.48	+0.94 vs avg	4.42
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.81	-0.93 vs avg	1.74	+0.27 vs avgfew UFC fights	2.01
TD Acc	18% (3 of 17)	—	—	—few UFC fights	100% (1 of 1)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	73% (4 of 15 landed)	—	—	—	—
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.27	-0.61 vs avg	0.88	-0.88 vs avg	0.00
Knockdowns	0 dealt / 1 absorbed	—	—	—	1 dealt / 0 absorbed
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:03	—	—	—	7:28

Statistical Verdict
Both men land at 41%, both land more than the flyweight average, and both get hit more than it. Gurule absorbs 5.65 per minute — among the highest rates in the division — and has not scored a UFC knockdown. Hasan's 7.10 per minute and his knockdown come from a single seven-and-a-half-minute fight, so the reach and the finishing record are the sturdier signals.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2: single-fight sample for Bilal Hasan

Control Time per Round (sec)

Luis Gurule

A slow starter: 11.2 landed per first round at 35%, while opponents land 20.2 on him at 48%. He has lost three of his five UFC first rounds on the strike count.
His output climbs every round — 22.0 in the second, 44.3 at 46% in the third — and he won two of his three UFC third rounds, including 73-51 against Barez.
Both stoppage losses came early: Osbourne dropped him and stopped him at 1:54 of round two, and Tsuruya took him down and choked him at 3:19 of round one.

Bilal Hasan

His UFC debut first round was his best: 38 landed at 43%, 42% of them to the body, plus a takedown and 1:03 of control.
Rojas matched him 16-15 in round two before Hasan dropped him and finished it at 2:28.
He has never fought a UFC third round, and only one of his ten pro wins went the distance.

Critical Insight
Gurule's line climbs from 11.2 landed in round one to 44.3 in round three; Hasan's peaked in round one. The first round is where Gurule has been most vulnerable and Hasan most effective. The third is where Gurule does his best work and where Hasan has no UFC experience.

Strike targeting

Luis

75%

10%

15%

Head

75%

Body

10%

Legs

15%

Bilal

53%

38%

Head

53%

Body

38%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

LuisBilal

90%Distance72%

9%Clinch15%

1%Ground13%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open spaceBilal owns it

Six inches of reach; Gurule lands only 35% in first rounds and absorbs 20.2.

PocketBilal owns it

Hasan scored a knockdown in his only UFC fight; Gurule absorbs 5.65 per minute and was dropped by Osbourne.

ClinchEven

9% of Gurule's strikes land in the clinch; 21% of Hasan's first-round strikes against Rojas did.

GroundBilal owns it

Hasan landed his only takedown and controlled Rojas for 63 seconds; Gurule has landed 3 of 17 and was choked by Tsuruya after being taken down.

The Deep Read

Gurule's UFC fights follow a pattern. He starts slowly — opponents out-land him 20.2 to 11.2 in the average first round — and gets better every round, finishing with 44.3 landed per third round. That pattern beat Barez, whom he out-landed 73-51 in the third. It also cost him against Osbourne and Tsuruya, who finished him before the pattern could play out.

Hasan's one UFC fight went the other way. He won round one 38-17 with a takedown, a lot of body work and 63 seconds of control, then knocked Rojas out early in round two. Eight of his nine career stoppages came in the first two rounds, and he has six inches of reach on Gurule.

That is why Hasan is the lean and why conviction is only 4. Every early-round trend favours him, but his UFC evidence is seven and a half minutes long, and if Gurule gets to round three, he will be in the round where he has done his best work and Hasan has never been.

Path to Victory

Luis Gurule

Get through round one without giving up the body shots or the takedown, then build volume as he always does and take the second and third rounds on output, the way he beat Barez 73-51 in the third.

Why they win

UFC experience

Five UFC fights and 12 rounds against one fight and two rounds.

Late output

44.3 landed per third round; he won two of his three UFC third rounds.

Takedown defence

73% — opponents have landed 4 of 15 attempts.

Fifteen-minute fights

Three of his five UFC fights went the distance.

The gameplan

1
Survive round one
Keep the hands high, protect the body and do not get taken down.
2
Close the distance
Walk Hasan down behind feints to take away six inches of reach.
3
Use the wrestling
Level changes he rarely uses in the UFC would make Hasan think about something besides striking.
4
Pour it on late
Rounds two and three are his best; make the fight last.

Path to Victory

Bilal Hasan

Use six inches of reach and the body attack to win round one clearly, then finish before the third, when Gurule's output peaks.

Why they win

Reach and age

+6" reach, +2" height, 25 against 32.

Finishing

Nine of ten wins inside the distance, eight by KO/TKO.

Body attack

38% of his UFC strikes went to the body; two of his regional knockouts were body punches.

Gurule's first rounds

Opponents land 20.2 per first round on Gurule at 48%.

Unbeaten

10-0 (1 NC) as a pro.

The gameplan

1
Attack the body
42% of his first-round strikes against Rojas went to the body.
2
Win round one clearly
Gurule has lost three of five UFC first rounds.
3
Stay at range
Use the reach and switch stance rather than trading in the pocket.
4
Finish before the third
Gurule's output peaks in round three; Hasan has never fought one in the UFC.

Danger Zone

How Luis Gurule loses

He starts slowly again and Hasan's body work and power land before his volume arrives.
He is taken down and controlled early, as Tsuruya did.
He trades in the pocket with the longer man and gets dropped, as Osbourne did.

Danger Zone

How Bilal Hasan loses

The early finish does not come and Gurule's third-round volume takes over.
He fades after a big first round — his debut's second round was even on the strike count.
Gurule's wrestling shows up and he spends time on his back for the first time in the UFC.

Gurule's round-by-round climb

Slow starter

Gurule lands 11.2 per first round, 22.0 per second and 44.3 per third. Opponents out-land him 20.2 to 11.2 in the first.

11.2 → 44.3

Gurule's strikes landed, R1 to R3

Hasan's career

Early finisher

Eight of Hasan's nine stoppages came in the first two rounds. His UFC debut ended at 2:28 of round two after he won the first 38-17.

8 of 9

Hasan finishes inside two rounds

Why conviction is 4

One night of evidence

Hasan's UFC record is one fight and seven and a half minutes. Gurule has five UFC fights and 12 rounds.

Hasan UFC bout

The Five-Round Clock

Luis Gurule danger windowBilal Hasan danger windowNeutral / contested

R1Hasan's round

Hasan won his UFC first round 38-17. Gurule averages 11.2 landed and absorbs 20.2 in first rounds, and Tsuruya finished him in the first.

Critical Insight
Hasan's danger is front-loaded and Gurule's comes late. The longer Hasan goes without a finish, the more the fight moves toward Gurule's best round.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Hasan is favoured because the early rounds are his and they have been Gurule's worst: opponents out-land Gurule 20.2 to 11.2 in the average first round.

Gurule's path is time. His output rises every round, and Hasan has never fought a UFC third round.

Conviction is only 4 because Hasan's entire UFC record is one fight.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Hasan KO/TKO — 40%Hasan Decision — 12%Hasan Submission — 6%Gurule Decision — 18%Gurule KO/TKO — 18%Gurule Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Luis Gurule gold · Bilal Hasan orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Reach and age

Six inches of reach and seven years favour Hasan.

Early rounds

Hasan won his UFC first round 38-17; Gurule has lost three of five UFC first rounds.

Gurule's durability

Absorbs 5.65 per minute and was stopped twice in five UFC fights.

Late rounds

Gurule lands 44.3 per third round; Hasan has never been past round two in the UFC.

One UFC fight

Hasan's UFC figures come from seven and a half minutes — conviction stays at 4.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Rojas remake

Hasan wins the first round at range, attacks the body and finishes by KO/TKO — the largest bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Luis Gurule win probability

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career stoppages, none in the UFC yet. A late stoppage if Hasan tires.
The Barez path — survive the early power and win the late rounds on volume.
One career submission and a wrestling background. Low.

Bilal Hasan win probability

40%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Largest bucket. Eight of ten wins, and his only UFC result.
Wins the first two rounds and survives Gurule's third.
One career rear-naked choke. Low.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Bilal

Luis

29-28 Hasan

Hasan wins the first two rounds; Gurule takes the third on volume

Most likely card inside Hasan's 12% decision share

29-28 Gurule

Gurule steals round two and wins the third

Most likely card inside Gurule's 18% decision share

Inside R2

Hasan's knockout window

Most of Hasan's 40% KO/TKO share

Model and price

Luis Gurule

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: +600 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Estimated EV: +194.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: +28.3 pp

Bilal Hasan

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: -900 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Estimated EV: -35.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: -28.3 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Luis Gurule

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Bilal Hasan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Hasan is worth backing at −138 or better. Hasan by KO/TKO (40%, fair +150) is the strongest method read, and the fight not going the distance (70%, fair −233) is the most confident call. Gurule by decision (18%, fair +456) is the contrarian angle if the market leans hard on the unbeaten newcomer. The fight goes the distance 30% of the time (fair +233).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A soft lean. Reach, early finishing and Gurule's first-round problems carry Hasan to 58. His one-fight UFC record and Gurule's late output cap conviction at 4 out of 10. Lean: Bilal Hasan.

What backs the lean

Six inches of reach and a seven-year age edge
10-0 (1 NC) with eight knockout wins
Won his UFC first round 38-17 and finished in round two
Gurule is 1-4 in the UFC, absorbs 5.65 per minute and has lost three of five first rounds

What limits it

Five UFC fights against one
Gurule's output rises every round, to 44.3 landed in the third
Hasan was even on the strike count in round two against Rojas
Hasan's UFC figures come from seven and a half minutes

Final Assessment

In roughly 58 of 100 readings, Bilal Hasan uses the reach and the body attack to win the early rounds and finishes by KO/TKO (40%), with a smaller decision share (12%) and a submission share (6%). The Rojas fight is the template: a big first round, then the finish early in the second.

In the other 42, Luis Gurule survives the early rounds and his volume takes over, either on the cards (18%) or with a late stoppage of a tiring opponent (18%). The submission branch is 6%.

Hasan 58 / Gurule 42, conviction 4 out of 10. Hasan is the pick, but his UFC record is one fight, too short to make this a confident one.

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